Metro Vancouver Industrial Lands Portfolio

Regional Planning Committee

Eric Aderneck

Senior Regional Planner

September 4, 2015

RPL - 1 -

• Stops erosion of industrial land• Accommodates industrial growth• Supports the regional economy• Achieves job growth• Supported by an efficient

transportation system

Regional Context -Successful IndustrialLand Strategy:

RPL - 2 -

Industrial• Heavy & light industrial activities • Residential not intended

Mixed Employment• Industrial• Commercial & other

employment related uses • Support industrial activities• Complement Urban Centres• Capitalize on FTDAs• Residential not intended

Policies: Metro 2040 Land Use Definitions

RPL - 3 -

What We’ve Done: Work Completed• 2005 + 2010 Industrial Lands

Inventory• 2011 Industrial Lands Intensification

Analysis Study• 2012 Industrial Lands Market

Readiness• 2012/2013 Best Practices for

Intensive Use of Industrial Lands• 2013 Redevelopment and

Intensification – Constraints / Opportunities

• 2013 High Density Multi Level Industrial Building Feasibility

• 2014 Industrial Land Protection and Intensification Policies Guideline

RPL - 4 -

2010 Industrial Land Inventory

6,600 acres vacant21,600 acres developed28,200 acres total

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Today’s Industry in Metro Vancouver

• Wide variety of types of industrial uses• Few cases of multi-level buildings• Efficiencies achieved through higher ceilings,

equipment / technology, and automation• Generally higher densities on higher value lands

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Link to Goods Movement

RPL - 7 -

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Employment in Metro Vancouver by Sector

Manufacturing

Utilities & Construction

Trade, Transport,Warehousing

Education, Health, Info,Culture

FIRE, Professional,Business

Accmd., Food, OtherServices, Public Admin.

Agriculture & Resources

Num

ber o

f Job

s (10

00)

Link to Employment / Economy

RPL - 8 -

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

Developed

Total Industrial Land Capacity 2010

Vacant

Industrial Land Demand & Supply

25,000

10,000

20,000

30,000

15,000

5,000

0

Acre

s

RPL - 9 -

Issues: Tensions and Responses• Shortage of industrial lands / high land prices• Pressure on ALR lands• ‘Industrial Land Reserve’ concept• Challenges and opportunities of industrial intensification• Loss of industry and associated economic / employment

activities to other regions

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What We’re Doing: Work Underway• 2015 Land Inventory Update / Enhancement: Type and Quantity of Land Use Land Utilization Market Readiness Intensification Potential

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Next Steps• Complete enhanced industrial land inventory update• Further technical work – ‘typologies’; intensification;

best practices; relationship to goods movement, employment, economy

• Ongoing engagement with industry – i.e. NAIOP• Explore potential policy directions

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Metro Vancouver Agriculture Portfolio

Regional Planning CommitteeTheresa Duynstee

Regional Planner

September 4, 2015

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Agriculture contributes to the region’s prosperity

and livability …and food production for

future generations

RPL - 14 -

Economic development

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Fresh, healthy food…and long term food security

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Photos from Delta Farmland and Wildlife Trust

Ecosystem goods and services

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Regional Growth Strategy By "" No." 136. 2010

Metro Vancouver 2040 Shaping Our Future

Arlnpti:rl hy th A Grea ter Voricouv<lf Reyiomil Dislricl Board

OH July '29. 2011 Updated t:> Septembei 21, 2012

.wwv.metro'l;an:ou"-9r.org

I

RPL - 18 -

Parcels Used for farming

41%Parcels Not

used for farming

59%

Major Land Use Challenges

Farmed 50%

Not farmed and

unavailable 25%

Not farmed with

potential 25%

RPL - 19 -

.... 8 N l"Jl!.ll

COi i \IHIA

' 'linistl')' of 1\griculfurc

Land Use Inventory Report Reference ~umber: 800.~10-29.201-t

Metro Vancouver Regional Report Summer 2010 & 2011

Sn·eugthe-ning Farming Program ~linis.n·y of Agriculture

March 6, 2014

Farm Lease Agreements in Metro Vancouv e Regional ~lannlng Information Bulletin

lhls 1;:.., 1eundey,:· 1t~ &lr'lll~s.1heJmouoto"'Jrlilr:f lo.¥..ecl -. the 1~1on"'1dlt •htwn(tl'f' ..,.I(~ of P)1<;rlr g l "'fl'\M lor g-CPllT' PO~~ ,:iir~ ;i "1 lmpnrt;w't me,;1'5 f(' nr ·pa~ ll l'<..1ll lOUllL :>I .. t.l wdy l-...1111.."tJ iJ rKl i11 !J•t. Tctiul~ ._. <l l<.J 111JllHiflX J ic 'Ji...lJilily U -:1g11..Ul.lrli!,

WHAT IS A FAM.I l f:ASU

A farm IEase is .a contrKtu.a agrEenErtt hro.Jgh wh d'l a lancv-... ner cor·~;st;.:0,.p~lo"l1 ghts t );ii a: f'(lp;!t'Tf. a.-pornc.n ot prapii!l1y. for a c~:t'!rmlned rlne fl!'rlcd . sutje<l ra •>arlOl."i condll:•ons., In " "' 11. mt;e• l; u l '·l)'llH't" ll. Tln•1111'1:<"· l) •un • ·1 p1...-.m , ret.; in~ the nght tc d1~oose o" th~ 3-.d. wh1 ~ :te l t>Mr. :IP'ir.v.>P) hn> fKYi"~' nn of thP lnnc: unc: :>r Che-le.:isie ..t::reemeot .)1)(! the re;ponSlbilit'1 of ma1nra 'ling It ar.cord ig ro che :'.'r"ns tf lte -:ase A ll:'<1!:.i!' 11 1u~l~ it1w1il 111: lu1 iLW Ll:' k'r1luru <• llli1'.

WHY ARE LEASES IMPORTA\'T FORAGRJCULTURF7

Farming

J Hl i USTAIN.AIU: Ri"IOMl~l~Nlin~•~ll:Yl;:::::::Jiiiilllll

Agri culture in Metro Vancouver

2011 Census of Agriculture Bulletin

The ~rkv!tlnl iNJuwv ln Mtuo VlftCOWtr is a ~J (Oft'IOOMnt ol th• rt010tt't economv. food MOJritY ¥"11 «ammunltY wtl-1*n9. In 2010, bnN 1r1 MKro vanc.ouver ~t41d 2,_ of the '9-~.'• t'1IN '-"" 1tc:t1PU on only- 1.>,.,. of tt.. Cll'CI•~• farft'ltand, 1~"9*"'' f111r11ly fll"l'l"ll (Of"ltJIWI co llf'OOuC• I Wide ••etMY of (;(OP• ·~ •9"0d:. WM• ·~ tn'l!l'CIM'ltrlQlr 1.111.UU'llblt land fl\l.OaOtMttlt Ol'XbCff.

Atto1,mlrnq tot SJY. °' 6 .C.'!1" '10~. MeottQ V.1MUuftor ri. both .m 1~ <oft!.;ul'f"-"f .Mid s:;itll)fier c.f ~I PIOduets. TM t"embiriation of a mod-erat@ <limate, fetd! soils, aMJ the Agricultur.iil ~ R~ (ALR) l\x emibled the~ induwv to mab a s,j,gnifiant eontribvti¢n to M ftoQion•I ttOftOlllY- Wflilt al.most W of N munleiol t•fl in ~ Vancouver Nioe ~ f11rm1ng, ~. u.tui, ~\lrrty, Pitt MNdowt and~ ~t f« d'lt l'flllontv o/ IOt'ie~l'll actN.tv aM nt.ar1V "°' ot tht l.IJ'ld in tht A&.lt.

All lhi:i <J,;iU Of'OY.cled 1n lh~ buhtitt hA' bcrvn 1.:omp1lvd "°"" S.t ... ll~t.c11 C~ ?011 C<rn~u~ of Aoricvltu~ refused Ol't Ma'( 10, 201:? for tM meuopcliun ~or Metro VMCOt..!Wr Reqlon~ Oistric.t. oaa hH ~ ~n ruon~ fw memb<!r mc.inicioalibM with sio;inifiQM ~t"IQllWraJ Ktivitv ind COf""P.i-ed to reRfts from the- rraiser v~ Reoional Dist rict.. e..c. ~ Ol\Jda.

lpsos Reid

in Metro Vancouver ALR Landowner Survey Prtp:mM for r11Sctro Var.co<>'Mr

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Property Tax Investigation

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ALR in BC

Agricultural Land Reserve and the Agricultural Land Commission

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Preventing Illegal Fill

Agriculture Impact Assessment

Water Forum (proposed 2016)

Agriculture Awareness

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Action PlanLocal Government Role

RPL - 24 -

Urban Centres and FTDA Portfolio

Regional Planning Committee

Heather McNellDivision Manager, Planning and Policy Analysis

September 4, 2015

RPL - 25 -

Why is structuring growth important from a regional perspective?

RPL - 26 -

Why is structuring growth important from a regional perspective?

efficient regional land use pattern and transportation network

reduced energy use, GHG emissions, and pollution, and improved air quality

Efficient utilities & transit ($$ savings) natural area, agricultural and industrial

land protection jobs close to where people live opportunities for transit, multi-

occupancy vehicles, cycling and walking complete, walkable communities

Supports:

RPL - 27 -

Sprawl = 10%-40% increased cost in infrastructure and public services (Litman, 2015)

Halifax – shift the amount of redevelopment from 16% to 50% = $715 million in savings over two decades

Calgary – shift development patterns to use 25% less land = $11 billion in capital costs

Costs associated with how and where we grow…

When growth is mostly greenfield…

Versus when more growth is through infill…

RPL - 28 -

Why is structuring growth a regional issue?

RPL - 29 -

Livable Region Plan, 1975

1975: Managed Growth / Transit Oriented Regional Vision

RPL - 30 -

1996: Consistent Regional Vision

Livable Region Strategic Plan

Growth Ate-IS Undtr Bus lano/Priori1Y; Hew or Upgraded • Meuopolitan • M11nicipal D Concentr111ion • Municipiril Edsting Hioh Occ1,1panc., L::l lnter·Rogional Co•• Town Centres Area Consideration Skylrain I Sea Bus Vehicle fac ility Highw11y Connection

~ Intermediate CafBclty Regional Roads • Region•I • Green Zone Urb3o • Agricultural Unds Transit System Coitnoctions and •• Commuter Rail

Town Centres Areas Areas In I.ho Green Zone lLight Rall/Busway) Goods M ovement .. RPL - 31 -

2011: Consistent Regional Vision

Metro 2040/ ...

RPL - 32 -

2015: Urban Centres Network

RPL - 33 -

Seymour

CoquitlamCapilano

Regional Water

RPL - 34 -

Regional Sewerage

RPL - 35 -

Structuring Growth in the Region – Integrating Land Use and Transportation Investment

RPL - 36 -

Regional City Centre ProfilesCoquitlam

,--1 km

D f'uea: 280 hectares "".~i Transit walking catchment: 90% of area

Maple Ridge

,--1 km

O Area: 286 hectares

Kl Transit walking catchment: 60% of area

Richmond

O Area: 935 hectares

1 Transit walking catchment: 60% of area

Langley

,--1 km

TONnshi

··-~

0 Area: 635 hectares

v ··Transit walking catchme nt: 35% of area

Metrotown

~

D Area: 310 hectares

:JTransit walking catchment: 95% of area

Surrey Metro Centre

D Area: 473 hectares

A Transit walking catchment: 95% of area

Lonsdale

D Area: 264 hectares

'"".JTransit walking catchment: 95% of area

New Westminster

,--1 k:n

O Area: 108 hectares

~Transit walking catchment: 90% of area

Vancouver Metro Core

D Area: 1,665 hectares

1 Transit walking catchment: 95% of area RPL - 37 -

FOCUSING GROWTH IN URBAN CENTRES AND FREQUENT TRANSIT DEVELOPMENT AREAS (FTDAs)

40%of dwelling unit growth to Urban Centres

Metro 2040 targets

28%to good transit-oriented locations along the FTN

+

50%of employmentgrowth to Urban Centres

27%to good transit-oriented locations along the FTN

+

RPL - 38 -

Main Issues

Recognized that tools to structure growth needed some new depth to better reflect transit infrastructure, market demand, and municipal TOD efforts = FTDAs

After 4 years – recognize that municipal uptake on the FTDA tool has been uneven and from different drivers

Frequent Transit Network

Have targets for FTDAs, but it is an evolving concept – challenging to measure

RPL - 39 -

What’s been completed?

All new Urban Centre boundaries confirmed through Regional Context Statements - acquired historical data to 1991

Urban Centre Profiles 12 Frequent Transit Development Areas confirmed through RCSs Office Development in Urban Centres Inventory and Report

RPL - 40 -

What’s on the go?

Urban Centres and FTDA Review Evaluate effectiveness Advance policy Better integration with transportation planning tools Improved service and relevance for municipalities

Office in Centres Facts in Focus

RPL - 41 -

What’s next?

Continue to integrate land use planning tools (Urban Centres and FTDAs) more effectively with other Metro 2040 objectives

Transportation infrastructure / corridor planning Affordable and diverse housing GHGs and water consumption, etc. (integrating climate change

adaptation)

RPL - 42 -

~ ~ metrovancouver SERVICES AND SOLUTIONS FOR

A LIVABLE REGION

RPL - 43 -

Regional Growth Forecasting

Regional Planning Committee

Terry HoffSenior Regional Planner

September 4, 2015

RPL - 44 -

Growth Forecasting Purpose / Applications

• Metro 2040 - Planning and Monitoring

• Coordinating Regional and Municipal Plans

• Metro Vancouver Utilities Demand Modeling

• Collaboration with TransLink Transportation Demand Modeling

• Planning Context for Regional Agencies and Businesses RPL - 45 -

Forecasting Content / Products

• Population• Age, Gender, Household formation, Labour Force

• Housing• Demand for Dwelling units by type, tenure

• Employment• Jobs by Industry, occupation sectors

• Land Supply – use / capacity • Housing, industrial, commercial

• Regional Growth / Development Indicators• Policy Targets / Objectives, Residential Density

RPL - 46 -

Metro Population Growth Forecast

Based on a number of factors, Metro Vancouver’s forecasts anticipate population growth of about 1 Million by 2041

• From 2.5 million in 2015

• To 3.45 million in 2041

RPL - 47 -

Overview – Growth Forecasting Method

Census Baseline

National and Provincial Population Forecast Scenarios• Statistics Canada• Province of BC

Municipal and Submunicipal Growth Scenarios• Land Use / Capacity• Trends• Metro 2040 Designations / Policies• OCP Designations / Plans / Policies• Regional / Subregional Demographics• Municipal Perspective / Consultation

Regional Growth Forecast Scenarios • Regional Share of Canada’s Immigration and Migration• Land Capacity / Utilization / Policies

Top Down

Bottom UpRPL - 48 -

Stats Can Population Scenario Forecasts Canada 2014 - 2041

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000

48 Million

39 Million

44 Million

Growth +9 Million

Low Scenario

RPL - 49 -

Stats Can Population Forecast British Columbia 2014 - 2041

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

5.2 Million

Growth +1.5 Million

RPL - 50 -

Vancouver CMA Historic Share of Growth

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

Metro Share of BC Growth 70%

Metro Share of Canada Growth 11%

RPL - 51 -

Vancouver CMAHistoric Population Growth

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

Average 37,000

RPL - 52 -

Stats Can Growth Scenarios Extrapolating MV Regional Share to 2041

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

BC @ 17% of Stats Can Scenarios

Metro @ 70% of BC Scenarios

RPL - 53 -

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

Metro Vancouver Growth Scenariosto 2041

Stats Can Low Scenario

Population

Growth 2011 – 2041• Stats Can High Scenario = 1.64 Million• Metro 2040 Mid Range Scenario = 1.09 Million• Stats Can Low Scenario = 0.54 Million

RPL - 54 -

Comparative Regional Growth Forecasts to 2041

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

Stats Can High ScenarioCBCUrban FuturesMetro 2040BC Stats P2014Stats Can Low Scenario

RPL - 55 -

Factors Affecting Growth Forecast

• Immigration - 80% - 100% of annual growth• Federal policy on immigration levels – current 260,000/year• World events affecting immigration to Canada – particularly

from the Pacific Rim• Immigrant settlement preferences and patterns

• Domestic Migration - +/- 10% of annual growth• Interprovincial and Intraprovincial • Relative strength of Metro Vancouver regional economy• Livability choices

• Natural Increase- 20% to -0% of annual growth• Declining from 20% in 2011 to <0% 2030s.

RPL - 56 -