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Real estate and economic data for Phoenix, AZ
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WeallknowtheValley’srealestatemarkethasbeenvolatileoverthelast5+years.Thegoodnewsisthingsarechanging.Distressedhomesaredownapproximately75%fromlastyearandtheactualsupplyofhomesisbelowthatofa“normalmarket”.TheValleyispositionedforacomeback.Notacomebackof2005proportions,butastable,steadycomebackwhichwewillwelcome. Keepinmindrealestateislocal.Whatyouhearnationallymaynotreflectwhatisactuallyhappeninginyourneighborhood.RememberwhenArizonawasreaching47%appreciationinoneyear,mostofthecountrywasnowherenearthatlevel.Thesameconceptisvalidagain.Arizonawas#3lastyearforforeclosuresanddistressedpropertiesbehindFloridaandNevada.Wearenow#27!Wearemovingrapidlyintherightdirection.Pleasestudythisinformationandfeelfreetopassitontoanyoneyouknowwhomayneedhelpdecipheringourcurrentmarket.Weallneedtoknowwhatourpropertyvalueisandwhereitisgoing.Thisisvalidwhetheryouarebuyingorselling.Let’sdiscussyourpersonalsituationandgoalsandcomeupwithaplan. IamveryexcitedaboutthepositivemovementArizonahashadandlookforwardtohelpingyougetthemostvalueoutofyourhome.
Jeannine
JEANNINE BARTNICKICRS,GRI,ABR,SRS,e-PRO,RSPS,CDPE,CLHMS
Certified Luxury Home Property SpecialistCertified Residential Specialist
senior sales & marketing consultant
If your home is currently listed, this is not a solicitation for that listing. ProducedbyDesertLifestylePublishing•480.460.0996•www.DesertLifestyle.net
2011 Sales Statistics By CommunityCommunity Average DaysOn List/Sell # SalesPrice Market PriceRatio Closed
Ancala........................................$1,028,816................. 142..................93%..........................39
Bellasera........................................$441,157................. 139..................95%..........................19
DCRanch......................................$834,211................. 170..................95%.........................124
DesertHighlands.......................$1,283,186................. 277..................90%..........................18
DesertMountain........................$1,273,481................. 429..................88%.........................106
EagleMountain............................$515,914................. 193..................94%..........................27
Estancia......................................$1,973,181................. 294..................88%..........................11
FireRock......................................$1,151,845................. 271..................92%..........................24
GaineyRanch..............................$790,592................. 186..................93%..........................21
Grayhawk.....................................$526,555................. 122..................96%.........................142
HiddenHills....................................$664,171................. 133..................96%..........................32
IronwoodVillage..........................$337,443................. 105..................97%..........................44
LegendTrail...................................$507,262................. 150..................95%..........................51
McCormickRanch.......................$442,812................. 135..................96%..........................24
McDowellMountainRanch........$484,628................. 114..................95%.........................218
Mirabel..........................................$947,815................. 331..................89%..........................52
ScottsdaleMountain...................$639,893................. 157..................95%..........................40
ScottsdaleRanch.........................$431,296................. 112..................96%..........................77
Sincuidados..................................$771,923................. 184..................94%..........................13
Silverleaf.....................................$2,173,735................. 353..................86%..........................46
Stonegate.....................................$475,787................. 171..................94%..........................51
Terravita.........................................$425,710................. 142..................95%..........................76
WhisperRock.............................$1,866,900................. 667..................87%...........................5
Winfield..........................................$468,014................. 196..................96%..........................17
Statistics gathered from ARMLS. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.(Single-Family Residences)
2011 Average Sales Price By City
Statistics gathered from ARMLS. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. (Single-Family Residences)
Glendale
Phoenix
Mesa
Peoria
Tempe
Gilbert
Litchfield Park
Chandler
Cave Creek
Fountain Hills
Scottsdale
Carefree
Paradise Valley
$117,597
$129,482
$139,952
$331,848
$405,408
$479,407
$682,714
$1,316,573
$190,588
$168,879
$194,236
$164,317
$199,320
TherecoveryintheMetroPhoenixhousingmarketstartedquitegentlyinSeptember2011butgraduallygrewinstrength,andbythespringof2012itwasrunningattopspeed.Theimmediatelyobviousimpactwasastrongriseinpricing,infactagreaterpercentagerisethananyothermetropolitanareaintheUSA.Alookbackat2012comparedwith2011showsusthat:•Theannualaveragepricepersq.ft.rosebyover20% from$81.59to$98.24•Theannualaveragesalespriceincreased23%from $156,774to$192,549•Theannualmediansalespricejumped27%from$110,000 to$140,000 Inventorywaslowthroughout2012,causingintensecompetitionamongbuyers.Thiswasparticularlytrueatthelowerendofthemarket.Buyerswithcashheldasubstantialadvantage,sincetheycouldimpresssellerswiththefactthattheirofferdidnotdependonobtainingapprovalforaloanorasatisfactoryappraisal.Forthehigherpriceranges,supplyanddemandweremorebalanced,butpricesincreasedinmostareasasconfidencereturnedtothemarket. Salesvolumeswerelowerin2012than2011,butthiswaslargelyduetoashortageofaffordablehomestobuy,notbecauseoflackofdemand.Atthestartof2011,nearlyhalfofhomespurchasedwerelender-ownedforeclosures,butbytheendof2012thesehaddroppedtolessthan13%ofsales.Meanwhilenormalsalesgrewfromjust29%ofsalesinJanuary2011to61%inDecember2012.Shortsalestookoverfromforeclosuresasthepreferredmeansofresolving
homeloandelinquency.Theyconstituted21%ofsalesatthebeginningof2011,and26%bytheendof2012. Delinquenthomeloanswererunningashighas16.3%inArizonaasrecentlyasFebruary2010.ByOctober2012thishaddroppedto7.7%,accordingtoreportsbyLenderProcessingServices.Thisimprovementisthelargestofanystateinthenation.Arizona’snon-judicialforeclosureprocesshasallowedittoeliminatedelinquentloansatamuchfasterpacethanstateswithajudicialprocess.Thisisbadnewsfortheborrowersinvolved,butgoodnewsforthemarketsincewenolongerhavetheimpendingthreatofsignificantdistressedinventorycomingontothemarket. Manyfamilieswholosttheirhomesthroughforeclosureandshortsalesin2008and2009arenowplanningtostoprentingandgetbackintohomeownership.Thiswilladdtothe2013demandforhomestoown,ratherthantorent. Investorshavebeenaverysignificantpartofthedemandsinceearly2009andthisdidnotchangein2012.Whatdidchangeisthatmorepropertieswerepurchasedbylargemulti-nationalinvestorsinsteadofsmallerlocalplayers.Nowthatpricinghasrespondedtotheexcessdemandoversupply,weexpectdemandfromthelargeinvestorstoslowlydissipatein2013. Thenewhomemarkethassprungbacktolifeafteraprolongedhibernationbetween2008and2011.In2012,demandfornewhomesoutpaceddevelopers’abilitytobuildthem.Ashortageofskilledconstructionworkersandlimitedfinishedlotsinbuilders’ownershipmeantthatthegrowthinnewsaleswassomewhatstifled.Neverthelesswesawnewhomesalesgrowby49%between2011and2012despitesignificant
increasesinprices.Developersarenowbuyingupnewlandandfinishedlotstosetthemselvesuptosupplymorehomesin2013.Withtheexpectedincreaseinpopulationthough,thisisnotexpectedtobeenoughtomeetthecomingdemand. OveralltheMetroPhoenixhousingmarketisinastrongerpositionnowthanithasbeensincelate2005.Manythemesfrom2012willprobablycontinueinto2013asthemarketheadsbacktonormal.Foreclosuresandshortsalesareexpectedtodecline.Newhomeandnormalre-salesarelikelytoincrease,whilelowinventorywillcontinuetobeakeyfactorincausingpricestomovehigher.Withnosignificantsourceofnewsupply,wedon’tseeinventoryrisingbacktonormallevelsforaverylongtime. Inthecurrentmarket,homesareeasytosellbutsometimesbuyingcanbeachallengeduetocompetitionfromotherbuyers.Evenso,owningahomeisfinanciallymuchmoreattractivethanrentingbecauseinterestratesonhomeloansareunusuallylowandhomepricesarestillcheapbyhistoricalstandards,especiallywhencomparedwithrentalrates.Withtheinventoryofhomesforsaleexpectedtostaylowforsomeconsiderabletime,buyersarelikelytohavetheirpatiencerewardedwithcontinuedstrongappreciation.Mostofthosewhoboughthomesin2011havealreadyseenverystronggrowthinthevalueoftheirhome,andbythetimewereach2015wearelikelytobesayingthesameaboutthosewhopurchasedhomesbetween2009and2013.
AuthorandstatisticianMichaelOrristheDirectorofRealEstateStudiesatASU’sW.P.CareySchoolofBusiness,andPrincipalofTheCromfordReport.
IN THE NATIONAL SPOTLIGHT Aswe’veturnedthepageonanotheryear,thenationaleconomycontinuesitsmodestrecovery.Optimismtingedwithuncertaintyseemtobetheprevailingsentiments.Althoughtheworsteffectsofthe“fiscalcliff”havebeenaverted,thereisstillawait-and-seeattitudeamongconsumersandemployersregardingtaxationandfederalspendingpolicies. Corporationsareflushwithcash,butarewarytospendonhiringorotherbusinessexpendituresuntilfurtherclarityontheeconomy’spathisavailable.However,onceCorporateAmericagainsconfidence,thetrillionsofdollarsandrecordprofitsthey’resittingoncanbeinjectedintothemarketplacethroughemployment,manufacturing,andotherbusinessinvestment. ThereisadirectcorrelationbetweenanincreaseinconsumerconfidenceandanincreaseintheGDP.Whenconsumersarecomfortableandconfident,theyspendmoney,pavingthewayforbusinessexpansion.Forconsumerstofeelconfidentin2013,thereneedstobeacontinuedimprovementinthefinancialmarketsandhomevalues,alongwithaprogressiveloweringoftheunemploymentratecoupledwithaveragewageincreases.TheGDPisexpectedtogrowatapproximately2%in2013,aboutthesameaslastyear. Ourfinancialmarketsenjoyedarobust2012withtheS&P500finishingwithjustundera12%growth.Whiletherecentlyenactedtaxlawchangesmaydampensomeoftheenthusiasmininvestingforsome,manymarketforecastersareprojectinga6%-12%growthfortheS&P500thisyear. Thebrightspotintheeconomyin2012wasthehousingmarket,aslowmortgageratesandaffordablehomepricesnationwidekepthomessellingatabriskpace.Fortunatelythattrendisexpectedtocontinuein2013.Infact,someareasareexperiencingsuchahousingshortagethattheconstructionindustryisstrugglingtomeetdemand.ThatisespeciallytrueinourArizonamarket(seetheResidentialRealEstatearticle.) Kiplinger.comforecastsamoderate,butsteadyjobgrowththrough2013withaprojectedannualtotalofanaddedtwomillionjobsbyyearend.Similarly,theunemploymentrateisprojectedtodriftdowntoabout7.5%vs.7.8%attheendof2012. Mosteconomistsareexpectinganoverallimprovementinournation’seconomic
healthin2013.WayneStutzer,SeniorVicePresidentandFinancialConsultantforRBCWealthManagement,explainsthecyclicalnatureoftheeconomy.“Thetopofthemarketwasin2006.Today,2013istheseventhyearofthetypicalseven-yeareconomiccycle.We’realmostoutofthewoods.”Thewildcardmaybehowthenewtaxlawsimpacttheeconomyasthehigh-incomeearnerstargetedwithtaxincreasesalsoaccountforhalfofournation’sconsumerspending.Weareexpectingslowbutencouragingprogressinalloftheseareasin2013.Stutzercontinues,“Ifthingsgowell,then2013willberememberedastheeconomicyearthatsetthestageformuchbetteryearstocome.”
ARIZONA HEATS UP AlongwithNevada,Arizonawasgroundzeroforthehousingmeltdown,plaguedbyhighforeclosuresandhighunemploymentduring2006-2010.However,Arizonastagedastrongeconomiccomebackin2012,boastingthebesthousingmarketinthenation. “AsofSeptember2012,Arizonarankedfifthamongstatesforjobgrowth,andtheMetroPhoenixareawasfourthamonglargemetropolitanareas,”saysLeeMcPheters,ResearchProfessorandDirectoroftheJPMorganChaseEconomicOutlookCenterattheW.P.CareySchoolofBusiness.ThisisanextraordinaryimprovementfromArizona’slowpointin2009whenArizonafellfromanenviablejobgrowthrankingofsecondin2006,toadismal49thofthe50statesin2009.“Arizonaisexpectedtoadd60,000jobsin2013.Weshouldfinallydipbelow8%unemploymentin2013–downto7.6%.” Arizona’seconomicgrowthhashistoricallybeenstokedbyencouragingbusinessesandpeopletomovehere.Arizonaoffersadesirableclimate,affordablehousing,andagrowingbusinessenvironmentwithreasonablestatetaxrates.ArizonastandstobenefitfromCalifornia’srecentlyenactedProposition30whichraisesanalreadyhighstatesalestaxevenhigher,whilesignificantlyraisingincometaxesonindividualsmaking$250,000ormore.TheGreaterPhoenixEconomicCouncilhasdoubledtheireffortstoattractCaliforniabusinessesandtheiremployeestoArizona.ThesenewCaliforniataxlawchangesareexpectedtosignificantlyincreasepopulationflowstoArizona’sadvantage. ElliottD.Pollack,CEOoflocaleconomicconsultingfirmElliottD.PollackandCompany,notestheimportanceofmigration
toourstate.“Intheabsenceofthefiscalcliff,thingsshouldcontinuetoimproveoverthenextseveralyears.By2015,thingsshouldbenormalized.AsIliketosay,we’reonlyonedecentpopulation-flowyearawayfromtheissuebeingresolved.” MetroPhoenixhasrisenfromitshousingmeltdownwithencouragingjobgrowthledbyahousingboomthathasnowcausedaresidentialhousingshortage.Homebuildersaresteadilydustingofftheirequipmentandbuildinghomestomeetdemand.NewhomesalesinjectfreshlifeintotheArizonaeconomyandtaxbase.ThejourneytowardcontinuedeconomicgrowthandprosperityforArizonaseemstoonceagainbeheadingdownthefamiliarpathofbuildingandsellinghomestomeetincreasingdemand.
G E N E R A L E C O N O M I C S NA P S H OT
R E S I D E N T I A L R E A L E S TAT E
2013 ECONOMIC FORECASTS
GDPGROWTH2% growth in ’13,
about the same as last year. . .
INTERESTRATESLittleornoincrease
inshort-termratesin‘13. . .
BUSINESSSPENDINGAbouta4%gainin’13,
halfof‘12’space. . .
HOUSINGSALESUp8%,helpingGDPin’13
. . .TRADEDEFICIT
Wideningby2%in’13,afteraslightdipin’12
. . .UNEMPLOYMENT
Headingtoabout7.5%bytheendof‘13
. . .INFLATION
Slightlyhigherthisyear,2.3%. . .
ENERGYOiltradingat$90-$95/barrel
throughearlyspring. . .
RETAILSALES5%growthin’13
afterstrongholidaysales
Source:TheKiplingerLetter
ByMichaelOrr
ACTIVE LISTING COUNTSGreaterPhoenix-ARMLSResidential
SALES PER MONTHGreaterPhoenix-ARMLSResidential-MeasuredMonthly
MONTHLY AVERAGE SALES PRICE PER SQUARE FOOTGreaterPhoenix-ARMLSResidential
TherecoveryintheMetroPhoenixhousingmarketstartedquitegentlyinSeptember2011butgraduallygrewinstrength,andbythespringof2012itwasrunningattopspeed.Theimmediatelyobviousimpactwasastrongriseinpricing,infactagreaterpercentagerisethananyothermetropolitanareaintheUSA.Alookbackat2012comparedwith2011showsusthat:•Theannualaveragepricepersq.ft.rosebyover20% from$81.59to$98.24•Theannualaveragesalespriceincreased23%from $156,774to$192,549•Theannualmediansalespricejumped27%from$110,000 to$140,000 Inventorywaslowthroughout2012,causingintensecompetitionamongbuyers.Thiswasparticularlytrueatthelowerendofthemarket.Buyerswithcashheldasubstantialadvantage,sincetheycouldimpresssellerswiththefactthattheirofferdidnotdependonobtainingapprovalforaloanorasatisfactoryappraisal.Forthehigherpriceranges,supplyanddemandweremorebalanced,butpricesincreasedinmostareasasconfidencereturnedtothemarket. Salesvolumeswerelowerin2012than2011,butthiswaslargelyduetoashortageofaffordablehomestobuy,notbecauseoflackofdemand.Atthestartof2011,nearlyhalfofhomespurchasedwerelender-ownedforeclosures,butbytheendof2012thesehaddroppedtolessthan13%ofsales.Meanwhilenormalsalesgrewfromjust29%ofsalesinJanuary2011to61%inDecember2012.Shortsalestookoverfromforeclosuresasthepreferredmeansofresolving
homeloandelinquency.Theyconstituted21%ofsalesatthebeginningof2011,and26%bytheendof2012. Delinquenthomeloanswererunningashighas16.3%inArizonaasrecentlyasFebruary2010.ByOctober2012thishaddroppedto7.7%,accordingtoreportsbyLenderProcessingServices.Thisimprovementisthelargestofanystateinthenation.Arizona’snon-judicialforeclosureprocesshasallowedittoeliminatedelinquentloansatamuchfasterpacethanstateswithajudicialprocess.Thisisbadnewsfortheborrowersinvolved,butgoodnewsforthemarketsincewenolongerhavetheimpendingthreatofsignificantdistressedinventorycomingontothemarket. Manyfamilieswholosttheirhomesthroughforeclosureandshortsalesin2008and2009arenowplanningtostoprentingandgetbackintohomeownership.Thiswilladdtothe2013demandforhomestoown,ratherthantorent. Investorshavebeenaverysignificantpartofthedemandsinceearly2009andthisdidnotchangein2012.Whatdidchangeisthatmorepropertieswerepurchasedbylargemulti-nationalinvestorsinsteadofsmallerlocalplayers.Nowthatpricinghasrespondedtotheexcessdemandoversupply,weexpectdemandfromthelargeinvestorstoslowlydissipatein2013. Thenewhomemarkethassprungbacktolifeafteraprolongedhibernationbetween2008and2011.In2012,demandfornewhomesoutpaceddevelopers’abilitytobuildthem.Ashortageofskilledconstructionworkersandlimitedfinishedlotsinbuilders’ownershipmeantthatthegrowthinnewsaleswassomewhatstifled.Neverthelesswesawnewhomesalesgrowby49%between2011and2012despitesignificant
increasesinprices.Developersarenowbuyingupnewlandandfinishedlotstosetthemselvesuptosupplymorehomesin2013.Withtheexpectedincreaseinpopulationthough,thisisnotexpectedtobeenoughtomeetthecomingdemand. OveralltheMetroPhoenixhousingmarketisinastrongerpositionnowthanithasbeensincelate2005.Manythemesfrom2012willprobablycontinueinto2013asthemarketheadsbacktonormal.Foreclosuresandshortsalesareexpectedtodecline.Newhomeandnormalre-salesarelikelytoincrease,whilelowinventorywillcontinuetobeakeyfactorincausingpricestomovehigher.Withnosignificantsourceofnewsupply,wedon’tseeinventoryrisingbacktonormallevelsforaverylongtime. Inthecurrentmarket,homesareeasytosellbutsometimesbuyingcanbeachallengeduetocompetitionfromotherbuyers.Evenso,owningahomeisfinanciallymuchmoreattractivethanrentingbecauseinterestratesonhomeloansareunusuallylowandhomepricesarestillcheapbyhistoricalstandards,especiallywhencomparedwithrentalrates.Withtheinventoryofhomesforsaleexpectedtostaylowforsomeconsiderabletime,buyersarelikelytohavetheirpatiencerewardedwithcontinuedstrongappreciation.Mostofthosewhoboughthomesin2011havealreadyseenverystronggrowthinthevalueoftheirhome,andbythetimewereach2015wearelikelytobesayingthesameaboutthosewhopurchasedhomesbetween2009and2013.
AuthorandstatisticianMichaelOrristheDirectorofRealEstateStudiesatASU’sW.P.CareySchoolofBusiness,andPrincipalofTheCromfordReport.
IN THE NATIONAL SPOTLIGHT Aswe’veturnedthepageonanotheryear,thenationaleconomycontinuesitsmodestrecovery.Optimismtingedwithuncertaintyseemtobetheprevailingsentiments.Althoughtheworsteffectsofthe“fiscalcliff”havebeenaverted,thereisstillawait-and-seeattitudeamongconsumersandemployersregardingtaxationandfederalspendingpolicies. Corporationsareflushwithcash,butarewarytospendonhiringorotherbusinessexpendituresuntilfurtherclarityontheeconomy’spathisavailable.However,onceCorporateAmericagainsconfidence,thetrillionsofdollarsandrecordprofitsthey’resittingoncanbeinjectedintothemarketplacethroughemployment,manufacturing,andotherbusinessinvestment. ThereisadirectcorrelationbetweenanincreaseinconsumerconfidenceandanincreaseintheGDP.Whenconsumersarecomfortableandconfident,theyspendmoney,pavingthewayforbusinessexpansion.Forconsumerstofeelconfidentin2013,thereneedstobeacontinuedimprovementinthefinancialmarketsandhomevalues,alongwithaprogressiveloweringoftheunemploymentratecoupledwithaveragewageincreases.TheGDPisexpectedtogrowatapproximately2%in2013,aboutthesameaslastyear. Ourfinancialmarketsenjoyedarobust2012withtheS&P500finishingwithjustundera12%growth.Whiletherecentlyenactedtaxlawchangesmaydampensomeoftheenthusiasmininvestingforsome,manymarketforecastersareprojectinga6%-12%growthfortheS&P500thisyear. Thebrightspotintheeconomyin2012wasthehousingmarket,aslowmortgageratesandaffordablehomepricesnationwidekepthomessellingatabriskpace.Fortunatelythattrendisexpectedtocontinuein2013.Infact,someareasareexperiencingsuchahousingshortagethattheconstructionindustryisstrugglingtomeetdemand.ThatisespeciallytrueinourArizonamarket(seetheResidentialRealEstatearticle.) Kiplinger.comforecastsamoderate,butsteadyjobgrowththrough2013withaprojectedannualtotalofanaddedtwomillionjobsbyyearend.Similarly,theunemploymentrateisprojectedtodriftdowntoabout7.5%vs.7.8%attheendof2012. Mosteconomistsareexpectinganoverallimprovementinournation’seconomic
healthin2013.WayneStutzer,SeniorVicePresidentandFinancialConsultantforRBCWealthManagement,explainsthecyclicalnatureoftheeconomy.“Thetopofthemarketwasin2006.Today,2013istheseventhyearofthetypicalseven-yeareconomiccycle.We’realmostoutofthewoods.”Thewildcardmaybehowthenewtaxlawsimpacttheeconomyasthehigh-incomeearnerstargetedwithtaxincreasesalsoaccountforhalfofournation’sconsumerspending.Weareexpectingslowbutencouragingprogressinalloftheseareasin2013.Stutzercontinues,“Ifthingsgowell,then2013willberememberedastheeconomicyearthatsetthestageformuchbetteryearstocome.”
ARIZONA HEATS UP AlongwithNevada,Arizonawasgroundzeroforthehousingmeltdown,plaguedbyhighforeclosuresandhighunemploymentduring2006-2010.However,Arizonastagedastrongeconomiccomebackin2012,boastingthebesthousingmarketinthenation. “AsofSeptember2012,Arizonarankedfifthamongstatesforjobgrowth,andtheMetroPhoenixareawasfourthamonglargemetropolitanareas,”saysLeeMcPheters,ResearchProfessorandDirectoroftheJPMorganChaseEconomicOutlookCenterattheW.P.CareySchoolofBusiness.ThisisanextraordinaryimprovementfromArizona’slowpointin2009whenArizonafellfromanenviablejobgrowthrankingofsecondin2006,toadismal49thofthe50statesin2009.“Arizonaisexpectedtoadd60,000jobsin2013.Weshouldfinallydipbelow8%unemploymentin2013–downto7.6%.” Arizona’seconomicgrowthhashistoricallybeenstokedbyencouragingbusinessesandpeopletomovehere.Arizonaoffersadesirableclimate,affordablehousing,andagrowingbusinessenvironmentwithreasonablestatetaxrates.ArizonastandstobenefitfromCalifornia’srecentlyenactedProposition30whichraisesanalreadyhighstatesalestaxevenhigher,whilesignificantlyraisingincometaxesonindividualsmaking$250,000ormore.TheGreaterPhoenixEconomicCouncilhasdoubledtheireffortstoattractCaliforniabusinessesandtheiremployeestoArizona.ThesenewCaliforniataxlawchangesareexpectedtosignificantlyincreasepopulationflowstoArizona’sadvantage. ElliottD.Pollack,CEOoflocaleconomicconsultingfirmElliottD.PollackandCompany,notestheimportanceofmigration
toourstate.“Intheabsenceofthefiscalcliff,thingsshouldcontinuetoimproveoverthenextseveralyears.By2015,thingsshouldbenormalized.AsIliketosay,we’reonlyonedecentpopulation-flowyearawayfromtheissuebeingresolved.” MetroPhoenixhasrisenfromitshousingmeltdownwithencouragingjobgrowthledbyahousingboomthathasnowcausedaresidentialhousingshortage.Homebuildersaresteadilydustingofftheirequipmentandbuildinghomestomeetdemand.NewhomesalesinjectfreshlifeintotheArizonaeconomyandtaxbase.ThejourneytowardcontinuedeconomicgrowthandprosperityforArizonaseemstoonceagainbeheadingdownthefamiliarpathofbuildingandsellinghomestomeetincreasingdemand.
G E N E R A L E C O N O M I C S NA P S H OT
R E S I D E N T I A L R E A L E S TAT E
2013 ECONOMIC FORECASTS
GDPGROWTH2% growth in ’13,
about the same as last year. . .
INTERESTRATESLittleornoincrease
inshort-termratesin‘13. . .
BUSINESSSPENDINGAbouta4%gainin’13,
halfof‘12’space. . .
HOUSINGSALESUp8%,helpingGDPin’13
. . .TRADEDEFICIT
Wideningby2%in’13,afteraslightdipin’12
. . .UNEMPLOYMENT
Headingtoabout7.5%bytheendof‘13
. . .INFLATION
Slightlyhigherthisyear,2.3%. . .
ENERGYOiltradingat$90-$95/barrel
throughearlyspring. . .
RETAILSALES5%growthin’13
afterstrongholidaysales
Source:TheKiplingerLetter
ByMichaelOrr
ACTIVE LISTING COUNTSGreaterPhoenix-ARMLSResidential
SALES PER MONTHGreaterPhoenix-ARMLSResidential-MeasuredMonthly
MONTHLY AVERAGE SALES PRICE PER SQUARE FOOTGreaterPhoenix-ARMLSResidential
KELLY KARBON
VICKI KAPLAN
KELLY KARBON & VICKI KAPLANScottsdale ~ Paradise Valley ~ PhoenixFountain Hills ~ Cave Creek/Carefree
Vicki Kaplan and Kelly Karbon have earned
a reputation for professionalism, and integrity,
attention to detail and confidentiality. They are
considered consummate professionals.
Working with clients who desire a higher level
of service, knowledge, and experience in real estate
and believing no two clients are alike and every
home is unique, Vicki and Kelly take great pride
in offering concierge based services and innovative
options tailored to meet the individual needs,
wants and desires of their clients.
If you are in the market to sell or purchase luxury
real estate in Scottsdale, Paradise Valley,
Carefree/Cave Creek, Phoenix, or Fountain Hills,
call or email Vicki or Kelly for a confidential,
no-obligation consultation.
If your home is currently listed, this is not a solicitation for that listing. Produced by Desert Lifestyle Publishing • 480.460.0996 • www.DesertLifestyle.net
2012 Sales Statistics By CommunityP O P U L A R N E I G H B O R H O O D S I N S C OT T S D A L E
Community Average Days On List/Sell # Sales Price Market Price Ratio ClosedAncala .........................................$1,184,433 .................156 ..................96% ......................... 37Bellasera .........................................$511,496 ..................76 ...................97% ......................... 29Candlewood Estates .....................$762,778 .................149 ..................95% ......................... 18 DC Ranch ....................................$1,007,616 .................141 ..................95% ........................ 118Desert Highlands .........................$1,643,402 .................349 ..................90% ......................... 23Desert Mountain .........................$1,338,941 .................413 ..................89% ......................... 96Eagle Mountain ..............................$528,672 .................115 ..................97% ......................... 30Estancia .......................................$2,499,250 ................210 ..................80% .......................... 8FireRock .......................................$1,208,519 .................213 ..................92% ......................... 26Gainey Ranch ................................$794,150 .................220 ..................92% ......................... 30Grayhawk.......................................$572,259 ..................82 ...................96% ........................ 133Hidden Hills.....................................$617,407 .................126 ..................96% ......................... 28Ironwood Village ...........................$355,185 ..................85 ...................97% ......................... 32Legend Trail ....................................$567,455 .................128 ..................96% ......................... 60McCormick Ranch ........................$421,856 ..................82 ...................97% ......................... 63McDowell Mountain Ranch ..........$513,130 ..................73 ...................97% ........................ 205Mirabel ........................................$1,144,459 .................271 ..................92% ......................... 28Scottsdale Mountain .....................$607,771 .................141 ..................96% ......................... 52Scottsdale Ranch...........................$544,665 .................109 ..................95% ......................... 95Sincuidados ...................................$819,933 .................201 ..................95% ......................... 15Silverleaf ......................................$2,031,150 .................258 ..................92% ......................... 35Stonegate .......................................$521,957 ..................95 ...................97% ......................... 63Terravita ..........................................$458,572 .................147 ..................96% ........................ 103Troon North .....................................$749,227 .................171 ..................95% ......................... 97Troon Village ..................................$798,551 .................190 ..................94% ......................... 87Whisper Rock ..............................$1,748,375 .................236 ..................91% .......................... 8Winfield ...........................................$557,957 .................123 ..................96% ......................... 14
Statistics gathered from ARMLS. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. (Single-Family Residences)
2012 Average Sales Price By City
Statistics gathered from ARMLS. All information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. (Single-Family Residences)
Glendale
Phoenix
Mesa
Peoria
Litchfield Park
Tempe
Gilbert
Chandler
Cave Creek
Fountain Hills
Scottsdale
Carefree
Paradise Valley
$147,050
$169,964
$173,024
$363,245
$421,963
$512,231
$206,811
$213,566
$227,122
$194,483
$231,107
$694,947
$1,345,837
Glendale
Phoenix
Mesa
Peoria
Tempe
Gilbert
Litchfield Park
Chandler
Cave Creek
Fountain Hills
Scottsdale
Carefree
Paradise Valley
$117,597
$129,482
$139,952
$331,848
$405,408
$479,407
$682,714
$1,316,573
$190,588
$168,879
$194,236
$164,317
$199,320
2011 Average Sales Price By City
