Methane and the Greenhouse Gas Footprint of Shale Gas

8/19/2019 Methane and the Greenhouse Gas Footprint of Shale Gas

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Methane and the Greenhouse Gas Footprint of Shale Gas

Bob HowarthThe David R. Atkinson Professor of Ecology & Environmental Biology

Cornell University

100% Renewable Denton Town Hall MeetingUniversity of North Texas, Denton, Texas

March 25, 2016


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Pam Pearson of the International

Cryosphere Climate Initiative.

http://iccinet.org/thresholds .

http://iccinet.org/thresholdshttp://iccinet.org/thresholds


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http://news.discovery.com/earth/alas

kas-arctic-tundra-feeling-the-

heat.html

1.5 oC threshold

2.0 oC threshold

Dangerous tipping points become increasingly likely at 1.5 deg,

12 to 15 years into the future at current rates.

Shindell et al. 2012


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• COP21 Paris Accord target: “well below 2 deg C”

• Clear recognition that warming beyond 1.5 deg C is dangerous


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NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (downloaded March 13, 2015)


9/47Leiserowitz et al. (2011)

Different views for the future of climate change….


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Leiserowitz et al. (2011)

Stable to a point, then very rapid and radical change

in the Earth’s climate system


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Global warming over the next few decades may well be sufficient to

push the Earth into a different climatic regime.

At that point, reducing greenhouse gas emissions may no longerreverse global warming, on the time scale of 10,000 years or more.

Runaway global warming, climate disruption, and sea-level rise at a

scale never before experienced.


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Possible tipping points to push Earth into new climate system:

•melting of Arctic Ocean ice (with reduced albedo)

•change in ocean circulation (from less salty Atlantic Ocean)• more thunderstorms in Arctic, leading to more fires

• melting of permafrost, and of methane hydrates


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Oceans’ great conveyor belt may be slowing…

…. Caused by melting of Arctic ice and Greenland ice

sheet, making North Atlantic less salty.

…. Slowing could decrease uptake of CO2 by oceans.


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http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html (downloaded March 13, 2016)

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.htmlhttp://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html


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CH4

CH4

CH4

High potential for massive emissions of

ancient CH4 due to thawing permafrost and

release of “frozen” methane (methane

hydrates and clathrates).

Zimov et al. (2006)Science


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http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/land-tundra.shtml

(downloaded June 9, 2014)

The global area of tundra decreased 18% in just 20 years (Wang et al. 2004)


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http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/land-tundra.shtml

(downloaded June 9, 2014)

Two photographs from the same location in Alaska, showing the transition from

tundra to wetlands over the last twenty years (from Torre Jorgenson).


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Hansen et al. (2007) suggested critical threshold

in climate system, to avoid melting of natural

methane clathrates, at ~ 1.8o C.


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METHANE CLATHRATES

- methane frozen in water ice mix under ocean sediments

on continental shelves and in permafrost

- large potential for destabilization with increasing temp

- will it be oxidized to CO2 within the water column?

- HUGE pool (10,000 times current total annual global flux)

http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/news/MethaneHydrates.html

2-9 Tg CH4 yr-1


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1.5 oC threshold

2.0 oC threshold


Danger point

for methane

clathrate

melting,

based on

geologic past


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1.5 oC threshold

2.0 oC threshold


Danger point

for methane

clathrate

melting,

based on

geologic past

Will be reached in ~ 25 years, unless the world starts

immediately to control methane and soot pollution


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1.5 oC threshold

2.0 oC threshold


Danger point

for methane

clathrate

melting,

based on

geologic past

Will be reached in ~ 25 years, unless the world starts

immediately to control methane and soot pollution

NOT predicting that methane clathrates will all

melt on this time frame, but the start of an

irreversible process of melting may well occur,

with disastrous consequences in the decades to

a century afterward.


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(Hayhoe et al. 2002)

For just the release of carbon dioxide during combustion…..

Is natural gas a “bridge fuel?”

Natural gas 15

Diesel oil 20

Coal 25

g C of CO2 MJ-1 of energy


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Carbon Dioxide

Methane


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• Natural gas is mostly methane

• Small leaks and emissions matter

• Shale gas emits more than conventional gas


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The biggest environmental issue of 2011 — at least in the U.S. — wasn't global

warming. It was hydraulic fracturing, and these three men helped represent the

determined opposition to what's more commonly known as fracking. Anthony

Ingraffea is an engineer at Cornell University who is willing to go anywhere to talk

to audiences about the geologic risks of fracking, raising questions about the

threats that shale gas drilling could pose to water supplies. Robert Howarth is his

colleague at Cornell, an ecologist who produced one of the most controversialscientific studies of the year: a paper arguing that natural gas produced by

fracking may actually have a bigger greenhouse gas footprint than coal. That

study — strenuously opposed by the gas industry and many of Howarth's fellow

scientists — undercut shale gas's major claim as a clean fuel. And while he's best

known for his laidback hipster performances in films like The Kids Are All Right ,

Mark Ruffalo emerged as a tireless, serious activist against fracking — especially

in his home state of New York.

Mark Ruffalo, Anthony Ingraffea,

Robert HowarthBy Bryan Walsh Wednesday, Dec. 14, 2011

People who Mattered


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Other “People who Mattered” in 2011:

Newt Gingrich, Osama bin Laden, Joe Paterno,

Adele, Mitt Romney, Muammar Gaddafi,

Barack Obama, Bill McKibben, Herman Cain,

Rupert Murdoch, Vladimir Putin, Benjamin

Netanyahu…

Mark Ruffalo, Anthony Ingraffea,

Robert HowarthBy Bryan Walsh Wednesday, Dec. 14, 2011

People who Mattered


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One of our major conclusions in Howarth et al. (2011):

pertinent data for shale gas were extremely limited, andpoorly documented.

Great need for better data on shale gas, conducted by

researchers free of industry control and influence.


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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America


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Schneising et al. (2014) –

“Remote sensing of fugitive

methane emissions from oil

and gas production in North

American tight geologic

formations.” Earth’s Future

2: 548-558

globalUnited States


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0 5 10 15 20

P e i s c h l e t a l . ( 2 0 1

5 )

NE Marcellus

Fayetteville

Western Arkoma

Haynesville

Schneising et al. (2014)Bakken & Eagle Ford

Caulton et al. (2014)SW Marcellus

Petron et al. (2014)

Denver-Julesburg

Allen et al. (2013)US Average

Karion et al. (2013)Uinta

Petron et al. (2012)Denver-Julesburg

EPA (2013)

EPA (2011)

Howarth et al. (2011)

Methane emissions from unconventional gas operations (upstream only, % of production)

Upstream methane emissions

unconventional gas


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Red = methane

Orange = CO2

Howarth 2015 Energy Emissions & Control Technologies

Greenhouse gas footprints, CO2 plus methane (averaged for 20 years after emission)


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IPCC (2013): “There is no

scientific argument for

selecting 100 years comparedwith other choices.”

“The choice of time horizon ….

depends on the relativeweight assigned to the effects

at different times.”


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http://news.discovery.com/earth/alas

kas-arctic-tundra-feeling-the-

heat.html

1.5 oC threshold

2.0 oC threshold

Dangerous tipping points become increasingly likely at 1.5 deg,

12 to 15 years into the future at current rates.

Controlling methane is Essential to the solution!


N t l G P d ti i th U it d St t


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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

E x a j o

u l e s

Natural Gas Production in the United StatesEIA 2015 Outlook data and mean reference projections

conventional

shale



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Total

emissions(with best

accounting for

methane)

Just CO2

EPA estimate for

total emissions

US Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Fossil Fuel Use, 1980 - 2014


h f f b


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The two faces of Carbon

Carbon dioxide (CO2)

• Emissions today will

influence climate for

1,000s of years

• Because of lags in

climate system,

reducing emissions

now will have little

influence during next

40 years

Methane (CH4)

• Persists in the

atmosphere for only

12 years

• Only modest long-term

influence, unless

global warming leads

to tipping points in the

climate system

• Reducing emissions

immediately slows

global warming


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• COP21 Paris Accord target: “well below 2 deg C”

• Clear recognition that warming beyond 1.5 deg C is dangerous

• To reach COP21 target will require the world to be largely

free of fossil fuels by 2050 (and the US by 2035)

• Methane reductions are critical; cannot reach COP21 target

with CO2 reductions alone


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Shale gas…. A bridge to nowhere

Yesterday’s fuel

So what should

our energy

future be?


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Jacobson and Delucchi 2009


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The 2030 Plan: Powering New York State with

Wind, Water, and the Sun to Address Global

Warming, Air Pollution, and Energy Security


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Funding:

Cornell University

Park Foundation Shale gas…. A bridge to nowhere

For more information:

howarthlab.org

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Methane and the Greenhouse Gas Footprint of Shale Gas