Short Communication

Meeting the global demand for biofuels in 2021 through sustainableland use change policy

Jos Goldemberg a,n, Francisco F.C. Mello b, Carlos E.P. Cerri c,Christian A. Davies d, Carlos C. Cerri b

a IEE-Institute of Energy and Environment, University of So Paulo, So Paulo, SP, Brazilb Center for Nuclear Energy in Agriculture, University of So Paulo, Piracicaba, SP, Brazilc Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture, University of So Paulo, Piracicaba, SP, Brazild Shell Technology Centre Houston, 3333 Highway 6 South, Houston, TX 77082, USA

a r t i c l e i n f o

Article history:Received 11 December 2013Received in revised form3 February 2014Accepted 6 February 2014Available online 4 March 2014

Keywords:EthanolSugarcaneSustainability

a b s t r a c t

The 2013 renewable energy policy mandates adopted in twenty-seven countries will increase the needfor liquid biofuels. To achieve this, ethanol produced from corn and sugarcane will need to increase from80 to approximately 200 billion l in 2021. This could be achieved by increasing the productivity of rawmaterial per hectare, expansion of land into dedicated biofuels, or a combination of both. We show herethat appropriate land expansion policies focused on conservationist programs and a scientic basis, areimportant for sustainable biofuel expansion whilst meeting the increasing demand for food and ber.The Brazilian approach to biofuel and food security could be followed by other nations to provide asustainable pathway to renewable energy and food production globally.One sentence summary: Conservationist policy programs with scientic basis are key to drive theexpansion of biofuel production and use towards sustainability.

& 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction

Global ethanol fuel production in 2012 was 83.1 billion l(REN21, 2013), accounting for 3% of total fuel use for transporta-tion. Of this 3%, roughly 1% was produced from sugarcane in Brazil,with small contributions from other Latin American countries. Theremaining 2% were produced from corn mainly in the UnitedStates, with minor contributions from China and Europe.

In 2011, 51% of the total sugarcane harvest in Brazil was used toproduce ethanol (Brazil, 2012a), totaling to a land area of 4.9 Mha.There are plans for expansion of biofuel production in manycountries, because renewable fuel mandates have been adoptedin 27 countries, in addition to the policies implemented by theUnited States and Brazil, the leading ethanol producers today(REN21, 2013).

The United States' Renewable Fuel Consumption mandate(EPA, 2010) assumes that expansion of ethanol produced from cornwill not increase after 2015. After 2015 production of 80 billion lof biofuels are expected to come from non conventional sources(EPA, 2010) using mainly 2nd generation technologies from

cellulosic feedstock's. If 2nd generation technologies do not reachtechnical and economic viability by 2020, the most feasiblealternative will be ethanol from sugarcane, classied by the EPAas an advanced biofuel.

For the next decade, Brazil is expected to increase productionfrom the current 21 to 61.6 billion l according to governmentprojections (Brazil, 2012b). Even with the improvements in etha-nol production by Brazil and the United States, there will be thenecessity to produce an additional amount of 34.8 billion l ofethanol in 2021, which could be provided by other countries(Table 1).

Despite the relatively small areas of land used for currentbiofuel production, considerable attention has been given to theenvironmental and social impacts of biofuel related land use (LU)and land use change (LUC) (HLPE, 2013). The debates aroundbiofuel production and LU have lead to certication standards andrules for biofuel production and trading (RES-D, 2009).

Given that the global population is growing, the demand forfood will increase, in addition to the demand for energy and water.These increases will put pressure on the sustainability of thisplanet, requiring action for sustainable production and expansionacross all sectors. From a LU perspective we will show here thatregulating the land expansion dedicated to biofuel productionwith appropriate LUC policies, would be enough to meet ethanol

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Energy Policy

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.02.0080301-4215 & 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

n Corresponding author.E-mail address: goldemb@iee.usp.br (J. Goldemberg).

Energy Policy 69 (2014) 1418

and food demand in 2021. This is an important step for sustainableLU and expansion to meet these growing demands.

2. Material and methods

To determine the capacity for sugarcane expansion to produceethanol and achieve global biofuel mandates, we compiled andevaluated data from several publications. The rst step was todetermine the amount of ethanol required by 2020/2021, primarilyfrom corn (USA) and sugarcane (Brazil).

Biofuel policies are currently focused on a push to 2nd genera-tion ethanol, using biomass from agricultural residues as amechanism to meet renewable fuel and food demands from thesame land area. However there are uncertainties with the eco-nomic feasibility of 2nd generation ethanol, in the US RFS2 for2013 the number of Renewable Identication Numbers (RINS) thatset renewable fuel volume targets for cellulosic ethanol, was823,498 l whereas actual volume produced was only 548,983 l(EPA (2013)). Therefore our evaluation focused on the capacity ofsugarcane expansion to achieve demand for rst generationethanol production in 2021.

2.1. Establishing ethanol requirements for 2021

Given the projected demand for ethanol in 2021 for Brazil,Brazil and the rest of the world excluding the USA, and totalglobal; we developed three scenarios for sugarcane expansion tomeet the demand in 2021: (i) 61.6 billion l (SCI), (ii) 96.4 billion l(SCII), and (iii) 176.2 billion l (SCIII).

The US RFS2 was used to determine the projected ethanolrequirements in the US for 2021 (EPA, 2010), resulting in arequirement of 136 billion l by 2022. In order to produce morecellulosic biofuel with time, in 2015 there are limits on biofuelproduction from cornstarch under the RFS2 (57 billion l). For Brazilthe biofuel requirements were based on the Ten Year Plan forEnergy Expansion (Brazil, 2012b) for 2021, giving a total ethanolamount of 61.6 billion l for Brazil's demand.

To determine the remaining ethanol demand for countriesoutside the USA and Brazil we considered the most representativeblending mandates (REN21, 2013), with 10% ethanol blending forglobal gasoline consumption in 2022 (excluding Brazil and USA).The projected gasoline consumption was estimated using data for19902008 from the IEA (2012), using an exponential extrapola-tion out to 2022, following the same trend of growth since 1990.The total volume of ethanol required to meet the global demandoutside Brazil and the USA in 2021 (138.8 billion l) is presented inTable 1.

2.2. Determining the sugarcane area and production dedicatedto ethanol in Brazil

In Brazil, sugarcane is produced to obtain sugar and ethanol.Thus, to estimate the amount of land dedicated to ethanolproduction and the amount of ethanol produced per area or ton

of sugarcane, we adjusted available data for LU and productivityusing the Total Recoverable Sugar (TRS). This was performed usingavailable data on sugarcane production in Brazil for the last veyears (Tables 2 and 3).

2.3. Land required for agriculture, reforestation and sugarcaneexpansion in Brazil

To determine the boundaries around available land for expan-sion of sugarcane, we used the policy and legislation requirementsfrom the EU. This was based on the European Directive (RES-D,2009), where LUC for biofuel production may not include defor-estation of natural vegetation or high biodiversity grasslands.In Brazil sugarcane could expand into land under other uses toaccomplish global biofuel mandates in 2021.

To achieve sustainable expansion of ethanol production inBrazil there are at least two important factors to consider: (i) theexistence of an agro-ecological zoning that species regions wheresugarcane could be cropped (Manzatto et al., 2009); (ii) speciclegislation (Brazil 2009, 2010) relating to the improvement ofpasture by 2020, increasing productivity and freeing up currentareas of pasture for other LU. The LCAPLow carbon agricultureplan (Brazil, 2010) is being implemented to specically increasethe current pasture carrying capacity through the improvement ofdegraded pasture.

We used the projected improvement of degraded pasturethrough the LCAP in Brazil, to determine area of potentialintensication of pasture that would meet an increasing demandfor food, ber and energy in 2021. This was performed usingprojections from the Brazilian government and other sources toestimate the land required for agricultural activities and reforesta-tion. The land required for sugarcane expansion was considered inorder for Brazil to meet its own ethanol demand in 2021, and alsoglobal demand (Table 1). The total land area required for each ofthese scenarios were used to calculate the intensication levelrequired for pasture to facilitate and meet the required sustainableexpansion of land.

Table 1Ethanol requirements in 2021 (billion liters).Source: aEPA, 2010, bBrazil, 2012b, cBased on REN21 (2013).

Countries Ethanol productionin 2015 (billion l)

Additional ethanol amountneeded in 2021 (billion l)

United States (from corn) 57.0a 79.8Brazil (from sugarcane) 37.4b 24.2E10 for other countries 34.8cTotal 138.8

Table 2Land dedicated to ethanol production in Brazil and sugarcane ethanol yields.Source: Adapted from aUnica (2013) and bBrazil (2012a).

Year Ethanola Total areaa Ethanolb Dedicated area Yield(10E6 l) (10E6 ha) TRS (%) (10E6 ha) (l ha1)

2007/08 22,422 7.08 54 3.82 5,8642008/09 27,513 8.14 59 4.80 5,7292009/10 25,694 8.62 56 4.83 5,3242010/11 27,376 9.08 54 4.90 5,5852011/12 22,682 9.60 51 4.90 4,632Average 25,137 8.50 55 4.65 5,427

Table 3Total historical sugarcane production and ethanol yields for Brazil.Source: Adapted from aUnica (2013) and bBrazil (2012a).

Year Etanola Sugarcanea Ethanolb Dedicated production Yield(10E6 l) (10E3 tons) TRS (%) (10E3 tons) (l tons1)

2007/08 22,422 492,382 54 265,886 84.332008/09 27,513 569,063 59 335,747 81.952009/10 25,694 602,193 56 337,228 76.192010/11 27,376 620,132 54 334,871 81.752011/12 22,682 559,215 51 285,199 79.53Average 25,137 568,597 55 311,786 80.75

J. Goldemberg et al. / Energy Policy 69 (2014) 1418 15

2.3.1. Growth rates for agriculture and reforestation in 2021To determine the current and projected demand for agricultural

crops and therefore meet food use, we used the projections derivedfrom the FAO (2013) database and from the Brazilian government.Brazil (2012c) presents growth rates for major crops, such as maize,sugarcane, soybean, and coffee to 2021/2022. For the remainingcrops, we used data from FAO (2013) from 2001 to 2011 as a baseline.

Then, data were grouped in two categories, considering theannual or perennial behavior of the crops. The growth rate wasfound considering expansion that occurred from 2001 to 2011,as performed for the other LU. Projections for reforestation weredetermined using seven years of data from the ABRAF (2012)report. Finally, it was necessary to include LUC for the expansion ofsugarcane for the production of sugar. We corrected the land areausing the TRS (Tables 2 and 3), the derived rates of growth tosupport the demand in 2021 for agriculture and reforestation arepresented in Table 4.

2.3.2. Estimate of land required for agriculture and reforestationactivities in 2021

The required land area for agricultural activities in 2021 weredetermined using the projected growth increases presented inTable 4. We used data for LU area from FAO (2013) for 2011 toestablish the initial areas used to calculate projected land areasusing the growth rates in Table 4. However it was necessary toadjust the harvested area for three LU: (i) sugarcane, (ii) maize and(iii) beans because of the multiple cropping seasons for these crops.

i). We considered sugarcane expansion for sugar production(sugarcane-S) separately from the sugarcane land used forbioenergy (sugarcane-E). Sugarcane-S was therefore areasdedicated to sugar production only. Sugarcane-S area in 2011was determined by using TRS for sugar production, equivalentto 49% (Brazil, 2012a).

ii). LU for the maize area was adjusted by a factor of 0.47, whichwas the average for 2011/2012 and 2012/2013 productionsconsidering maize as a rst season crop (Brazil, 2013).

iii). There are three seasons for beans production. Using data fromBrazil (2013) for 2011/2012 and 2012/2013 years we calculatedthe adjusted factor as 0.61.

After deriving the correction factors and establishing 2011 asthe point of reference for the projected LU in 2021, the growingrates presented (Table 4) were used to determine the landexpansion for each crop (Table 5).

3. Results

3.1. Land expansion required for sugarcane-E by 2021

To achieve SCI, we estimated that additional 6.4 Mha of land isrequired for sugarcane expansion by 2021. To achieve SCII, sugar-cane expansion would need to produce 96.4 billion l, leading to aland expansion of 12.8 Mha for sugarcane ethanol production.

SCIII considered that Brazil would produce the ethanol neededto accomplish mandates worldwide of 176.2 billion l of ethanol in2021. The additional amount of land necessary to meet thisdemand was estimated at 27.5 Mha primarily converted frompastures, which represent at least 70% of current LU area in Brazil(FAO, 2013). It is therefore important to evaluate the potential forintensication under pasture to provide enough land for theincreasing rates of food, ber and energy production.

3.2. Evaluating the intensication of pasture activities by 2021

Because pasture represents one of the major LU in Brazil andthe majority is poorly managed, they are ideally suited forpotential intensication with improvement. This would reducethe land area required for production on pasture, providing landrequired for agricultural and sugarcane-E expansion. We deter-mined the potential for improvement in the carrying capacity ofpastures, that would be enough to release land to achieve expan-sion from other LU (Table 6).

Pasture in Brazil is used primarily for cattle production. Around90% of existent cattle are produced for meat and the remaining10% relates to dairy cattle. Therefore we also accounted for growthrates for beef production in Brazil. From 2002 to 2011, the cattleproduction increased by 14.8%. In 2011 there were 212 millionheads of cattle in Brazil (for both activities) according to the FAO(2013), distributed through 196 Mha, leading to a supportingcapacity of 1.09 animals ha1.

The 14.8% in cattle production from 2002 to 2011 was used tocalculate projected increase in 2021, resulting in a cattle herd of244 million animals in 2021. Including the expected expansion foragriculture and reforestation (without Sugarcane-E), the pasturesupporting capacity would need to be 1.30 in 2021 to free up landfrom pasture (Table 6).

When the LU required for sugarcane-E expansion is included(6.4 Mha required for SCI), the carrying capacity of pasture wouldneed to be 1.35. To achieve SCII, 12.8 Mha, of pasture LUC would berequired, increasing the carrying capacity to 1.40 (Table 6).

In the United States, the Renewable Fuel Consumption mandate(EPA, 2010) assumes that the production of ethanol from corn willnot expand after 2015 (SCIII). Nonetheless, if 2nd generationtechnologies do not reach technical and economic viability by2020, the most feasible alternative will be ethanol from sugarcane.Thus, it will be necessary to produce 176.2 billion l of ethanol,leading to an expansion of 27.5 Mha from pasture in Brazil to meetthe ethanol demand worldwide. This scenario would require anincrease in the pasture carrying capacity to the highest evaluatedlevel, estimated at 1.53 animals ha1 (Table 6).

Table 4Anticipated growth rates used to develop land expansion estimates for agricultureand reforestation over the next decade in Brazil.Source: Adapted from Brazil (2012c), FAO (2013) and ABRAF (2012).

Land use Grow rates (%) Source Base years

Beans 0.4 BRAZIL 20112021Cassava 0.6 BRAZIL 20112021Coffee 3.0 BRAZIL 20112021Maize 0.4 BRAZIL 20112021aOther annual 19.3 FAO 20012011bOther perennial 8.6 FAO 20012011Rice 3.4 BRAZIL 20112021Seed cotton 0.8 BRAZIL 20112021Soybeans 1.9 BRAZIL 20112021cSugarcane-S 2.2 BRAZIL 20112021Wheat 1.0 BRAZIL 20112021Reforestation 23.0 ABRAF 20052011

a The following annual crops were considered: Barley, Broad beans, horsebeans, dry Buckwheat, Castor oil seed, Garlic, Groundnuts with shell, Jute, Linseed,Oats, Onions, Other Bastbres, Other melons (inc. cantaloupes), Peas, Pepper (Piperspp.), Pineapples, Potatoes, Rapeseed, Rye, Sesame seed, Sorghum, Strawberries,Sunower seed, Sweet potatoes, Tobacco (unmanufactured), Tomatoes Triticale,Vegetables fresh, Watermelons and Yams.

b The following perennial crops were considered: Apples, Avocados, Bananas,Cashew nuts (with shell), Cashewapple, Cocoa beans, Coconuts, Figs, Fruit, Grape-fruit (inc. pomelos), Grapes, Lemons, Limes, Mangoes, Mangosteens, Guavas, Mat,Natural rubber, Nuts, Oil palm fruit, Olives, Oranges, Papayas, Peaches andnectarines, Pears, Persimmons, Quinces, Ramie, Sisal, Tangerines, Mandarins,Clementine, Tea, Tung Nuts and Walnuts (with shell).

c Considered growing rates for sugar, only.

J. Goldemberg et al. / Energy Policy 69 (2014) 141816

4. Discussion

Currently, sugarcane is cultivated in more than 100 countriesand Brazil is the leader in both total land area and production

(FAO, 2013). The adoption of a strategy to allow the expansion ofbiofuels would be an important way to drive the global economytowards a sustainable path (Goldemberg, 2007).

The production of renewable fuels are a key part of climatechange mitigation, expanding the industry dedicated to ethanolproduction could reduce dependence on fossil fuels, once fossil fuelproduction might have already peaked (Kerr, 2011) and the declineof oil production is expected for next decades (Hallock et al., 2004,2014). This would enhance energy security (Chu and Majumdar,2012) and reduce global CO2 emissions. Investing in sugarcaneethanol would be an important strategy to create jobs (Goldemberg,2002), improve social-economics (Walter et al., 2010).

It is important that in delivering energy and climate securitywith biofuels, we also deliver security in other ecosystem servicessuch as food and clean water. It is imperative that policies increaseland expansion avoiding deforestation for climate security, as thiscould lead to biodiversity losses (Rangel, 2012) followed by green-house gas emissions (GHG) (Cerri et al. 2009) and a biofuel carbondebt (Fargione et al. 2008).

In Brazil, the sugarcane expansion could take place in abun-dantly available pasture areas (196 Mha). The existence ofspecic policies to enhance pasture productivity could releaseareas to other LU, meeting the increasing demand for food, berand energy without reducing beef production.

Our analyses indicate that 5.1 Mha will be required for agricul-ture expansion and 3.3 Mha will be needed for reforestation inBrazil by 2021 (Table 5). To achieve SCI and SCII, sugarcane shouldexpand by 6.4 Mha and 12.8 Mha respectively.

If conventional biofuel expansion becomes restricted after 2015(EPA, 2010), about 176.2 billion l of ethanol will be required tomeet global mandates. In this case, Brazil could provide thisvolume by expanding up to 27.5 Mha of land to produce sugarcane.

SCIII will lead an area equivalent to 36 Mha of pastures to beconverted into other LU to produce food, ber and biomass forbioenergy in 2021. This represents an increase of the pasturecarrying capacity from 1.09 to 1.53 animals ha1 (Table 6), the landexpansion for biofuel would not impact natural ecosystems underthis scenario.

One example of such policies is the sugarcane agro-ecologicalzoning (Manzatto et al. 2009) that was adopted in Brazil andindicated the existence of 60 Mha that could be diverted tosugarcane production. This zoning was created in conformity witha conservationist program based on scientic studies (Joly et al.,2010).

Since 2009, the Brazilian Government has committed to reduceGHG emission through specic legislation such as the National

Table 5Projected land use area required for agriculture from 2011 to 2021.Source: Adapted from ABRAF (2012), Brazil (2012c, 2013) and FAO (2013).

Land Use Category Harvested area (10E6 ha)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Soybeans Annual 24.0 24.5 25.0 25.5 26.0 26.5 27.0 27.6 28.1 28.6 29.1Reforestation Perennial 6.5 6.8 7.1 7.4 7.7 8.0 8.4 8.8 9.1 9.5 9.9Maize Annual 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.8Other Perennial 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.1Sugarcane-S Perennial 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8Other Annual 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4Rice Annual 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9Beans Annual 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3Coffee Perennial 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4Wheat Annual 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0Cassava Annual 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7Cotton Perennial 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0Total 60.9 61.7 62.5 63.3 64.1 64.9 65.8 66.7 67.6 68.5 69.3

Table 6Cattle herds in 2011, 2015 and 2021 considering agriculture and sugarcaneexpansion scenarios from pastures.

Scenarios Projection (years)

Herd/Pasture 2011a 2015 2021

No sugarcane expansion for ethanolCattle herd (animals) 212,798,000 225,404,663 244,314,657Pasture (ha) 196,000,000 192,744,092 187,513,049Agriculture (ha) 2,052,651 5,131,628Reforestation (ha) 1,203,257 3,355,323Sugarcane-E (ha) Zero ZeroSup. capacity (animals ha1) 1.09 1.17 1.30

Scenario ICattle herd (animals) 225,404,663 244,314,657Pasture (ha) 190,749,297 181,059,068Agriculture (ha) 2,052,651 5,131,628Reforestation (ha) 1,203,257 3,355,323Sugarcane-E (ha) 1,994,795 6,453,981Sup. capacity (animals ha1) 1.18 1.35

Scenario IICattle herd (animals) 225,404,663 244,314,657Pasture (ha) 190,749,297 174,646,686Agriculture (ha) 2,052,651 5,131,628Reforestation (ha) 1,203,257 3,355,323Sugarcane-E (ha) 1,994,795 12,866,363Sup. capacity (animals ha1) 1.18 1.40

Scenario IIICattle herd (animals) 225,404,663 244,314,657Pasture (ha) 190,749,297 159,942,429Agriculture (ha) 2,052,651 5,131,628Reforestation (ha) 1,203,257 3,355,323Sugarcane-E (ha) 1,994,795 27,570,620Sup. capacity (animals ha1) 1.18 1.53

Scenario I: expansion to achieve 37.4 billion l of ethanol in 2015 and 61.6 billion l in2021 (Brazil, 2012b);Scenario II: Expansion to achieve 37.4 billion l of ethanol in 2015 (Brazil, 2012b) and96.4 billion l in 2021.Scenario III: Expansion to achieve 37.4 billion l of ethanol in 2015 (Brazil, 2012b)and 176.2 billion l in 2021.

a FAO (2013).

J. Goldemberg et al. / Energy Policy 69 (2014) 1418 17

Plan on Climate Change (Brazil, 2009). Beyond the law, there is adecree to implement best agriculture practices entitled LCAP. It isexpected that LCAP will provide about US$ 90 billion1 as credit toBrazilian farmers to improve their productive systems until 2020.

The main goals are the recovery of 15 Mha of degradedpastures (7.6% of 2011 area), the increase of 4 Mha with integrationof croplivestock systems (ICLS) and the conversion of 8 Mha fromcultivated tillage to zero tillage systems. Also, there are otherimportant improvements that might enhance soil quality, includ-ing the biological xation of nitrogen, expected to increase5.5 Mha in cultivated land.

Implementing ICLS on pastures could raise the pasture sup-porting capacity from 1.05 to 1.76 and also increase agricultureyields by 11% (Landers, 2007). In other words, this modicationleads to savings of 0.86/ha changed. Thus, increasing the amountof land under ICLS by 4 Mha would be enough to release 67%(3.44 Mha) of the land needed for agriculture expansion or 100%of the land required for reforestation by 2021 (Table 5).

A main gain would occur due to the use of lime and fertilizersin pastures, estimated to promote savings of 2.52/ha changed(Landers, 2007). Increasing the supporting capacity of 15 Mha ofpastures to such level would be enough to release 37.8 Mha toother LU without compromising natural ecosystems. These initia-tives could release up to 41 Mha of land to other LU, enough toassimilate the expansion of sugarcane areas proposed by the threescenarios and the increase required for food and ber production.

5. Conclusions and policy implications

In this paper, we forecast the amount of ethanol required in2021 and assessed the potential to achieve the global demandthrough increased production of 1st generation ethanol fromsugarcane in Brazil. Our analysis considered three differentscenarios of ethanol demand related to biofuel mandates. Ourresults indicate that land expansion to achieve the three proposedscenarios would require 6.4 Mha, 12.8 Mha and 27.5 Mha. We alsoconsider that reforestation and agricultural LUC will increase by5.1 and 3.3 Mha respectively by 2021. To achieve the three ethanoldemand scenarios and the Brazilian reforestation and agriculturaldemands in 2021 using land currently under pasture, wouldrequire a decrease in the current 196 Mha to 181 Mha (SCI),174 Mha (SCII) and 160 Mha (SCIII).

The potential to achieve these scenarios is possible throughexisting policies for agro-ecological zoning in Brazil, regulating LUand expansion for sugarcane. Other initiatives from policies suchas pastures improvement and integration of agriculture-livestockcould release up to 41 Mha of land from pasture to other LU. Brazilhas demonstrated that energy security and the production ofrenewable fuel and food is possible, but that available land toachieve further demands are not limited by availability of land butby how land is currently managed by land users. Adoptingconservationist programs with a solid scientic base is a key factorto protect biodiversity and an important subsidy to decisionmakers to implement environmental policies that promote landuser accountability for sustainable LUC.

Acknowledgments

The authors thank to Renata P. S. Grisoli and Professor KlausReichardt for useful discussions and contributions.

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1 1 US$0.45 R$ (Brazilian Real)

J. Goldemberg et al. / Energy Policy 69 (2014) 141818

Meeting the global demand for biofuels in 2021 through sustainable land use change policyIntroductionMaterial and methodsEstablishing ethanol requirements for 2021Determining the sugarcane area and production dedicated to ethanol in BrazilLand required for agriculture, reforestation and sugarcane expansion in BrazilGrowth rates for agriculture and reforestation in 2021Estimate of land required for agriculture and reforestation activities in 2021

ResultsLand expansion required for sugarcane-E by 2021Evaluating the intensification of pasture activities by 2021

DiscussionConclusions and policy implicationsAcknowledgmentsReferences