The evolution of solar photovoltaic technology and its

potential in today’s energy market

Team 11Peter ChunNicholas MontesRoman Novitski

ME 433: Advanced Energy SolutionsProfessor Boehman

Outline

• Objective• Motivation• Solar and Government Subsidies• Solar Industry (US & Abroad)• Photovoltaic Technology– Crystalline Silicon– Thin Film

• Cost Analysis

ObjectiveTo assess whether advances in PV solar panels can make them competitive with fossil fuels on a cost analysis basis

Motivation• Need energy alternatives to fossil fuels• Solar energy vastly abundant• Current photovoltaic solar industry

relies heavily on government subsidies• Advancements in technology and

manufacturing required to drive down cost

Current Electricity GenerationAll Sources

Total = 4,100,656 thousand MWh

Energy Information Administration, Retrieved December 5th, 2012 from www.eia.gov/beta/enerdat/#/topic/0?sec=g&geo=g&fuel=vvg&agg=2,0,1

Electricity Generation GrowthRenewable Sources

Energy Information Administration, Retrieved December 5th, 2012 from www.eia.gov/beta/enerdat/#/topic/0?sec=g&geo=g&fuel=vvg&agg=2,0,1

Real Goods Solar, Inc. , Retrieved December 2, 2012, from http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=RSOL

Economic Reactions to Government Subsidies

• Solar Foundation calls it the fastest U.S. growing industry

• 93,000 Jobs in 2010

• More jobs per megawatt than any other renewable energy

1. Resch, Rhone. Fastest Growing Industry in the U.S.- Solar Energy. Retrieved December 2, 2012 from http://thesolarfoundation.org/blog/fastest-growing-industry-us-%25E2%2580%2593-solar-energy.

Rise of the United States’ Solar Industry1

Talbot, David. The Great German Energy Experiment. Retrieved December 1, 2012 from http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/428145/the-great-german-energy-experiment/

Goals of the Renewable Sector in Germany

Rise in the EU solar industry

Photovoltaic capacity installed by the end of 2008 in Megawatt Peak

Europe’s Energy Portal. Renewables. Retrieved December 1st, 2012 from http://www.energy.eu/#renewable

Germany Electricity Rates compared to the United States

Institute for Energy Research. Solar Subsidies Make Electricity More Expensive. Retrieved December 1, 2012 from http://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/2012/07/19/13253/

Common PV cells • Crystalline Silicon (c-Si)– Dominate current market

• Thin Film Cells– Gaining in popularity

Images retrieved December 4th 2012 from : http://www.solarpowernotes.com/ how-solar-cells-works.html#.UL4rx-Oe8mU http://www.sunconnect.com.au/solar-panel-info/types-of-solar-panels/

Crystalline Silicon• Most established type of PV• Thick crystallized silicon wafers• Highest performance at λ = 1.15 μm1

• 33% maximum efficiency (Shockley Queisser Limit)2

1. Shepherd, W., Shpeherd, D.W. (2002) “Energy Studies.” 2nd ed London [England]: Imperial College pp 406

2. United States Department of Energy. (2005) “Basic Research Needs for Solar Utilization” pp. 22

Thin Film

• Thin semiconductor layer on flexible surface

• Typically less efficient than c-Si– Gen III GaAs at 26% in lab1

• Research needed: crystal nucleation, charge transport

1. Green M.A., Keith E., Hishikawa, Y., Warta, W. (2008) “Solar Cell Efficiency Tables (Version 33,)” Prog. Photovolt: Res. Appl. 2009; 17:85–942. Office of Science retreieved Dec 1st, 2012 http://science.energy.gov/~/media/bes/pdf/reports/files/seu_rpt.pdf

Manufactur ing crysta l l ine PV ce l ls

• Supply of high purity silicon• Mono-crystalline• Poly-crystalline• Ribbon

• Ingot creation• Czochralski process• Casting• Polysilicon melt

• Wafer cutting• 200-400 micrometers• Time consuming• Waste material

• Doping• Layering/coating• Assembly

• $2-3/Watt• Good improvement• $20-100/W in 1970s

Hitachi Hitec, retrieved Dec 5th 2012 from: http://www.hitachi-hitec.com/global/solution/solarbattery/service/index.htmlSolar Direct, retrieved Dec 5th 2012, from http://www.solardirect.com/pv/pvlist/pvlist.htm

Manufactur ing th in -fi lm PV ce l ls

• Substrate• Glass• Plastics

• Roll-to-roll deposition• Various material

• Amorphous silicon (a-Si)• Cadmium telluride (CdTe)• Copper indium gallium

selenide (CIGS)

• Doping• Layering/coating• Assembly

• $1.5/Watt or lower

Hitachi Hitec, retrieved Dec 5th 2012 from: http://www.hitachi-hitec.com/global/solution/solarbattery/service/index.htmlSolar Direct, retrieved Dec 5th 2012, from http://www.solardirect.com/pv/pvlist/pvlist.htm

Green Rhino Energy, retrieved Dec 5th, 2012 from http://www.greenrhinoenergy.com/solar/technologies/pv_valuechain.php

Quantum Solar Power, retreived Dec 5th, 2012 from http://quantumsp.com/en/solar-energy/a-comparison-of-pv-technologies/

Lawrence Kazmerski, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Retrieved December 1st, 2012, from http://www.nrel.gov/ncpv/images/efficiency_chart.jpg

Conclusion of the solar industry competing with fossil fuels

• The solar industry can compete with fossil fuels without subsidiesEnergy Source Cost per unit energy ($/kWh)

Natural Gas 0.06

Thin Film 0.08

Coal 0.10

Crystalline Silicon 0.15

U.S. Energy Information Administration. Table 2. Regional Variation inLevelized cost of New Generaton Resources.Retrieved December1,2012From http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/electricity_generation.cfm

Questions?