MDL Probabilistic Forecast MDL Probabilistic Forecast GuidanceGuidance

NFUSE PresentationNFUSE Presentation

Bob Glahn (MDL)Bob Glahn (MDL)Kathryn Gilbert (MDL/MOS)Kathryn Gilbert (MDL/MOS)

Judy E. Ghirardelli (MDL/LAMP)Judy E. Ghirardelli (MDL/LAMP)

National Weather ServiceNational Weather ServiceMeteorological Development LaboratoryMeteorological Development Laboratory

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

MOS Probability Post-Processing• MOS provides objective forecast guidance for sensible

weather elements

• Products may be deterministic or probabilistic

• Probability forecasts are transformed to a “best” category by applying a threshold value to the probability

• Categorization is often done at the request of the users– decisions are made before dissemination

• Thresholds are determined to maximize some characteristic of performance, i.e. threat score, or in our case, usually unit bias– events are forecast with the same frequency they

are observed– provide a desired balance between the threat score,

the bias, the POD and the FAR

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

MOS Sample Text Message KPHL GFS MOS GUIDANCE 2/14/2007 0000 UTC KPHL GFS MOS GUIDANCE 2/14/2007 0000 UTC

DT /FEB 14 /FEB 15 /FEB 16 / DT /FEB 14 /FEB 15 /FEB 16 /

HR 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 18 00 HR 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 18 00

X/N 32 15 26 13 29 X/N 32 15 26 13 29

TMP 23 24 25 29 29 28 26 22 18 17 16 19 24 25 23 19 17 16 15 27 25 TMP 23 24 25 29 29 28 26 22 18 17 16 19 24 25 23 19 17 16 15 27 25

DPT 20 23 25 29 28 23 16 8 6 4 3 2 0 0 0 2 3 4 4 5 5 DPT 20 23 25 29 28 23 16 8 6 4 3 2 0 0 0 2 3 4 4 5 5

CLD OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV FW CL SC SC SC BK BK BK SC SC SC BK CL CLD OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV FW CL SC SC SC BK BK BK SC SC SC BK CL

WDR 06 06 05 02 34 31 30 30 29 29 28 29 29 28 28 28 27 27 27 28 27 WDR 06 06 05 02 34 31 30 30 29 29 28 29 29 28 28 28 27 27 27 28 27

WSP 15 16 19 17 19 24 25 24 21 18 15 19 20 20 14 13 13 13 13 20 15 WSP 15 16 19 17 19 24 25 24 21 18 15 19 20 20 14 13 13 13 13 20 15

P06 100 84 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 P06 100 84 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

P12 85 2 0 0 0 P12 85 2 0 0 0

Q06 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Q06 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Q12 4 0 0 0 0 Q12 4 0 0 0 0

T06 3/ 0 1/24 2/ 0 0/ 0 1/ 1 1/19 0/ 6 0/ 3 0/ 0 0/ 0 T06 3/ 0 1/24 2/ 0 0/ 0 1/ 1 1/19 0/ 6 0/ 3 0/ 0 0/ 0

T12 3/24 2/26 1/19 1/23 0/21 T12 3/24 2/26 1/19 1/23 0/21

POZ 69 61 50 36 19 20 20 7 1 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 POZ 69 61 50 36 19 20 20 7 1 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 0

POS 16 12 10 25 30 45 64 76 84 99 85 97 97 86 88 85 81100 93 91 94 POS 16 12 10 25 30 45 64 76 84 99 85 97 97 86 88 85 81100 93 91 94

TYP Z Z Z Z S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S TYP Z Z Z Z S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S

SNW 1 0 SNW 1 0

CIG 4 3 3 3 3 4 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 CIG 4 3 3 3 3 4 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

VIS 7 5 4 3 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 VIS 7 5 4 3 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

OBV N BR BR BR BR N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N NOBV N BR BR BR BR N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

MOS Sample Text MessageMOS Sample Text Message KPHL GFS MOS GUIDANCE 2/14/2007 0000 UTC KPHL GFS MOS GUIDANCE 2/14/2007 0000 UTC

DT /FEB 14 /FEB 15 /FEB 16 / DT /FEB 14 /FEB 15 /FEB 16 /

HR 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 18 00 HR 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 18 00

X/N 32 15 26 13 29 X/N 32 15 26 13 29

TMP 23 24 25 29 29 28 26 22 18 17 16 19 24 25 23 19 17 16 15 27 25 TMP 23 24 25 29 29 28 26 22 18 17 16 19 24 25 23 19 17 16 15 27 25

DPT 20 23 25 29 28 23 16 8 6 4 3 2 0 0 0 2 3 4 4 5 5 DPT 20 23 25 29 28 23 16 8 6 4 3 2 0 0 0 2 3 4 4 5 5

CLD OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV FW CL SC SC SC BK BK BK SC SC SC BK CLCLD OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV FW CL SC SC SC BK BK BK SC SC SC BK CL

WDR 06 06 05 02 34 31 30 30 29 29 28 29 29 28 28 28 27 27 27 28 27 WDR 06 06 05 02 34 31 30 30 29 29 28 29 29 28 28 28 27 27 27 28 27

WSP 15 16 19 17 19 24 25 24 21 18 15 19 20 20 14 13 13 13 13 20 15 WSP 15 16 19 17 19 24 25 24 21 18 15 19 20 20 14 13 13 13 13 20 15

P06 100 84 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 P06 100 84 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

P12 85 2 0 0 0 P12 85 2 0 0 0

Q06 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Q06 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Q12 4 0 0 0 0 Q12 4 0 0 0 0

T06 3/ 0 1/24 2/ 0 0/ 0 1/ 1 1/19 0/ 6 0/ 3 0/ 0 0/ 0 T06 3/ 0 1/24 2/ 0 0/ 0 1/ 1 1/19 0/ 6 0/ 3 0/ 0 0/ 0

T12 3/24 2/26 1/19 1/23 0/21 T12 3/24 2/26 1/19 1/23 0/21

POZ 69 61 50 36 19 20 20 7 1 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 POZ 69 61 50 36 19 20 20 7 1 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 3 0

POS 16 12 10 25 30 45 64 76 84 99 85 97 97 86 88 85 81100 93 91 94 POS 16 12 10 25 30 45 64 76 84 99 85 97 97 86 88 85 81100 93 91 94

TYP Z Z Z Z S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S SNW 1 0 CIG 4 3 3 3 3 4 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 VIS 7 5 4 3 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 OBV N BR BR BR BR N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

40-km contoured 10% 20-km contoured 10%

Probability of 1 or more cloud-to-ground lightning Probability of 1 or more cloud-to-ground lightning strikes in a grid box over a 3-h periodstrikes in a grid box over a 3-h period

Identical techniques, different horizontal resolutionsIdentical techniques, different horizontal resolutions

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

40-km contoured 10% 20-km contoured 5%

Magnitude of the probabilities is proportional Magnitude of the probabilities is proportional to the grid spacing, similar behavior with to the grid spacing, similar behavior with length of time periodslength of time periods

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

Gridded MOSGridded MOS

Prob. Of Prob. Of PrecipPrecip

NDGD NDGD

Products are Products are

available in available in

GRIB2GRIB2

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

Available MOS Probability Guidance

Probability Event6-, 12-, 24-h Prob. Of Precipitation

Liquid equiv. ≥ 0.01” Yes/NoYes/No

3-h 20-km Thunderstorm1 or more CG lightning strikes in grid box

Yes/NoYes/No

3-, 6-, 12-, 24-h 40-km Thunderstorm1 or more CG lightning strikes in grid box

Yes/NoYes/No

6-, 12-, 24-h 40-km Severe Thunderstorm

(conditional on thunderstorms)(hail, damaging winds, tornado)

Yes/NoYes/No

6-, 12-, 24-h 40-km Severe Thunderstorm

(unconditional = tstm*csvr)(hail, damaging winds, tornado)

Yes/No

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

Available MOS Probability Guidance

Probability Event6-h Quantitative Precipitation

Forecast0.01”, 0.1”, 0.25”, 0.5”, 1” +

12-, 24-h Quantitative Precipitation Forecast

0.01”, 0.1”, 0.25”, 0.5”, 1”,2” +

1-, 3-h Precipitation occurring on the hour

Yes/No

Precipitation type (Conditional on Precipitation)

Freezing, Frozen, Liquid

Precipitation Characteristics(Conditional on Precipitation)

Drizzle, Continuous, Showers

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

Available MOS Probability Guidance

Probability Event

Ceiling (feet)Ceiling (feet)

<200, 200-400, 500-900, <200, 200-400, 500-900, 1000-1900, 2000-3000, 1000-1900, 2000-3000,

3100-6500, 6600-12000, 3100-6500, 6600-12000, >12000 or unlimited)>12000 or unlimited)

Visibility (mi)Visibility (mi) < ½, <1, <2, <3, < ½, <1, <2, <3, ≤5, ≤6, ≤5, ≤6, >6>6

Obstruction to VisionObstruction to Vision None, Haze/Smoke, Mist, None, Haze/Smoke, Mist, Fog, Blowing PhenomenaFog, Blowing Phenomena

24-h Snow Amount24-h Snow Amount >T, 2”+, 4”+, 6”+, 8”+>T, 2”+, 4”+, 6”+, 8”+

Total Sky Cover Total Sky Cover

(Octets)(Octets)

Clear 0/8, Few 1/8-2/8, Clear 0/8, Few 1/8-2/8,

Sct 3/8-4/8, Bkn 5/8-7/8,Sct 3/8-4/8, Bkn 5/8-7/8,

Ovc 8/8Ovc 8/8

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

12-H Probability of Precipitation Warm 12-H Probability of Precipitation Warm SeasonSeason

Brier ScoreBrier Score

Forecast Projection (hr)Forecast Projection (hr)

Bri

er

Sco

reB

rier

Sco

re

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

12-H Probability of Precipitation Cool 12-H Probability of Precipitation Cool SeasonSeason

24-h Reliability

All

Sta

tion

s

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

Probability of Quantitative Precip ≥ .25”

Reliabilty of 12-h PQPF > 0.25", 48h ForecastsCool Seasons 05-06 and 06-07, 335 sites

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Forecast

Ob

se

rved

Re

lati

ve

Fre

qu

en

cy

65

182

400

638

800

1159

1437

2108

3467

8611

619293381

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

Mean:

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

MOS ProductsMOS Products

Alphanumeric BulletinsAlphanumeric Bulletins•Precipitation, Thunderstorm, SevereTstm, Snow, Precipitation, Thunderstorm, SevereTstm, Snow,

Freezing, Rain/SnowFreezing, Rain/Snow

Station guidance in BUFR formatStation guidance in BUFR format•Contains all MOS probabilitiesContains all MOS probabilities

Gridded MOS guidance in GRIB2 format (NDGD) Gridded MOS guidance in GRIB2 format (NDGD) •3-, 6- and 12-h thunderstorm probabilities3-, 6- and 12-h thunderstorm probabilities

•6- and 12-h probability of precipitation6- and 12-h probability of precipitation

Web graphics of most MOS probability productsWeb graphics of most MOS probability products

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products.shtmlhttp://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products.shtml

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

LAMP BackgroundLAMP Background• LAMP:LAMP:

– is a system of objective analyses, simple models, regression is a system of objective analyses, simple models, regression equations, and related thresholds which together provide equations, and related thresholds which together provide guidance for sensible weather forecastsguidance for sensible weather forecasts

– LAMP guidance is both probabilistic and deterministic LAMP guidance is both probabilistic and deterministic

– bridges the gap between the observations and the MOS bridges the gap between the observations and the MOS forecastforecast

– acts as an update to MOS guidanceacts as an update to MOS guidance

– provides guidance for aviation elementsprovides guidance for aviation elements

– is useful to WFO forecasters in making the TAFs and to AWC is useful to WFO forecasters in making the TAFs and to AWC forecasters in making the convective productsforecasters in making the convective products

– provides guidance for CONUS, Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto provides guidance for CONUS, Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto RicoRico

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

LAMP ProbabilitiesLAMP Probabilities

Probability of:Probability of: EventEventLiquid Equivalent Precip. ≥

0.01 inch during past 6 hours/12 hours

Yes/No

Precipitation occurring on the hour

Yes/No

Precipitation type (Conditional on Precipitation)

FreezingFrozenLiquid

Precipitation Characteristics(Conditional on Precipitation)

DrizzleContinuousShowers

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

Probability of:Probability of: EventEventThunderstorms during 2 hr

period in 20km boxYes/No

Total Sky Cover

0/8 (Clear)1/8 – 2/8 (Few)3/8 – 4/8 (Sct)5/8 – 7/8 (Bkn)8/8 (Ovc)

Obstruction to Vision

No obstruction to visionHaze/SmokeMistFogBlowing Phenomena

LAMP ProbabilitiesLAMP Probabilities

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

Probability of:Probability of: EventEvent

Ceiling Height

< 200 feet200 – 400 feet500 – 900 feet1000 – 1900 feet2000 – 3000 feet3100 – 6500 feet6600 – 12,000 feet> 12,000 feet

Ceiling Height (Conditional on Precipitation)

Same as above

LAMP ProbabilitiesLAMP Probabilities

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

Probability of:Probability of: EventEvent

Visibility

< ½ mile< 1 mile< 2 miles< 3 miles≤ 5 miles≤ 6 miles

Conditional Visibility (Conditional on Precipitation)

Same as above

LAMP ProbabilitiesLAMP Probabilities

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

LAMP Probabilistic LAMP Probabilistic ProductsProducts

• SBN/NOAAPort/NWS FTP server products: SBN/NOAAPort/NWS FTP server products: – Alphanumeric bulletin guidanceAlphanumeric bulletin guidance

• Probs of precipitation occurrence, POP6, 2hr thunderstorm, Probs of precipitation occurrence, POP6, 2hr thunderstorm, freezing precipitation, frozen precipitationfreezing precipitation, frozen precipitation

– Station guidance in BUFR formatStation guidance in BUFR format• Contains all probabilities made by LAMPContains all probabilities made by LAMP

– Gridded thunderstorm guidance in GRIB2 format Gridded thunderstorm guidance in GRIB2 format • 2hr thunderstorm probabilities2hr thunderstorm probabilities

• Graphical products on weather.gov:Graphical products on weather.gov:– Gridded thunderstorm images, including Gridded thunderstorm images, including

probabilitiesprobabilities– Station plots of POPOStation plots of POPO– Meteograms, including probabilities found in bulletinMeteograms, including probabilities found in bulletin

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

GFS LAMP StatusGFS LAMP Status• Operational Status:Operational Status:

– 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC - operational July 20060300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC - operational July 2006– 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC - operational May 20070000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC - operational May 2007– 4 more cycles planned to be operational September 4 more cycles planned to be operational September

20072007

• In Stage 5 (Deploy, Maintain, and Assess) In Stage 5 (Deploy, Maintain, and Assess) of OSIPof OSIP

• Data being sent out to:Data being sent out to:– SBN/NOAAPortSBN/NOAAPort

• AWIPS depictables in OB7.2AWIPS depictables in OB7.2– NWS FTP serverNWS FTP server– NDGDNDGD– NWS Web FarmNWS Web Farm

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

LAMP Meteogram LAMP Meteogram ProductsProducts

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

LAMP Thunderstorm: Probabilities and Best Category LAMP Thunderstorm: Probabilities and Best Category (Y/N) (Y/N)

Projection 1, Hrs 1-3Projection 1, Hrs 1-3

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

LAMP Thunderstorm: Probabilities and Best Category LAMP Thunderstorm: Probabilities and Best Category (Y/N) (Y/N)

All ProjectionsAll Projections

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

POP6 ReliabilityPOP6 Reliability

Cool SeasonCool Season

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

Reliability of 0300 UTC 09-h PoP6 Cool Season: 2006 Oct - 2007 Mar, 613 sites

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Forecast

Ob

serv

ed R

elat

ive

Fre

qu

ency

1694

1598

1778

2032

2507

3196

4419

6695

13383

3720324899

1288

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 95%

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

Reliability of 0300 UTC 15-h PoP6 Cool Season: 2006 Oct - 2007 Mar, 613 sites

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Forecast

Ob

serv

ed R

elat

ive

Fre

qu

ency

1270

13481549

1787

2006

2454

3148

4279

7154

14665

4086121013

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 95%

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

Reliability of 0300 UTC 21-h PoP6 Cool Season: 2006 Oct - 2007 Mar, 613 sites

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Forecast

Ob

serv

ed R

elat

ive

Fre

qu

ency

889

11281467

1843

1936

2430

3230

4259

6904

14148

3279830190

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 95%

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

Ceiling < 1000 feet Ceiling < 1000 feet ReliabilityReliability

Warm and Cool SeasonsWarm and Cool Seasons

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

Reliability of 0300 UTC 03-h Ceiling < 1000 feet 2006 Aug - 2007 May, 1522 sites

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Forecast

Ob

serv

ed R

elat

ive

Fre

qu

ency

827

2642

4348

5189

4171

3625

3684

5574

14848

56727

145522

1656690

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 95%

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

Reliability of 0300 UTC 06-h Ceiling < 1000 feet 2006 Aug - 2007 May, 1522 sites

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Forecast

Ob

serv

ed R

elat

ive

Fre

qu

ency

543

1504

2749

3876

5170

6247

8882

14551

32718

84430

108049142072

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 95%

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

Reliability of 0300 UTC 12-h Ceiling < 1000 feet 2006 Aug - 2007 May, 1522 sites

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Forecast

Ob

serv

ed R

elat

ive

Fre

qu

ency

111

4861264

2676

4627

8028

13531

22439

40353

84219

104261145324

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 95%

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

Visibility < 3 miles Visibility < 3 miles ReliabilityReliability

Warm and Cool SeasonsWarm and Cool Seasons

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

Reliability of 0300 UTC 03-h Visibility < 3 miles 2006 Aug - 2007 May, 1522 sites

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Forecast

Ob

serv

ed R

elat

ive

Fre

qu

ency

127

3501268

2145

3175

3815

3233

7822

15090

48684

161115167357

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 95%

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

Reliability of 0300 UTC 06-h Visibility < 3 miles 2006 Aug - 2007 May, 1522 sites

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Forecast

Ob

serv

ed R

elat

ive

Fre

qu

ency 83

147373

1010

2290

4197

7716

13759

29062

86103

119527147979

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 95%

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

Reliability of 0300 UTC 12-h Visibility < 3 miles 2006 Aug - 2007 May, 1522 sites

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Forecast

Ob

serv

ed R

elat

ive

Fre

qu

ency

1843

141

560

1563

3724

7585

15591

33554

86219

125758153950

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 95%

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

ThunderstormThunderstorm ReliabilityReliability

Warm SeasonWarm Season

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

Reliability of 0300 UTC 03-h Thunderstorms Warm Season: 2006 Aug - Sep, 2007 Apr - May, 27373 grid points

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Forecast

Ob

serv

ed R

elat

ive

Fre

qu

ency

974

1117

1805

2839

4501

6956

11427

19702

40770

150318

1515938

14189210

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

2000000

0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 95%

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

Reliability of 0300 UTC 06-h Thunderstorms Warm Season: 2006 Aug - Sep, 2007 Apr - May, 27373 grid points

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Forecast

Ob

serv

ed R

elat

ive

Fre

qu

ency

10

80

166

296

1551

6394

28542

204603

16269591306667

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

2000000

0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 95%

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

Reliability of 0300 UTC 09-h Thunderstorms Warm Season: 2006 Aug - Sep, 2007 Apr - May, 27373 grid points

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Forecast

Ob

serv

ed R

elat

ive

Fre

qu

ency

7

512

13277

179071

18193271163074

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

2000000

0% 5% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 95%

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

ThunderstormThunderstorm Brier Brier Score Score

Improvement on Improvement on ClimatologyClimatology

Spring SeasonSpring Season

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

Thunderstorms: CONUS Spring (March 16 - June 30) 20050300 UTC, Independent Data

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

3 4 5 6 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

PROJECTION (H)

Brie

r Sco

re Im

prov

emen

t on

Clim

ate

(%)

GFS-LAMP

July 11, 2007July 11, 2007

MDL MOS and LAMP Products on the Web

MOS Products MOS Products

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products.shthttp://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products.shtmlml

LAMP ProductsLAMP Productshttp://www.weather.gov/mdl/lamp/