Ultimate Kentucky Oaks-Derby Handicapping Package (available Tuesday, April 21)

Kentucky Oaks Day Ultimate Past Performances (available Tuesday, April 28)

Kentucky Derby Day Ultimate Past Performances (available Wednesday, April 29)

Daily Selections full-card analysis with best bets (available Thursday, April 30)

Bruno With the Works Oaks-Derby morning report (available Thursday, April 30)

Spotlight Selections from NHC winner Michael “Champ” Beychok (available Thursday, April 30)

2

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3

CONTENTS MAY 2015

Do we have another Big Brown in his son, Dortmund? Read on.

5 From The Publisher

6 The Teaser

Topics that titillate the racing mind.

8 Back to Night School

Quick-link summaries to all of our fan education lessons in April ‘15.

11 Countdown to the Crown:

Jeremy Plonk takes you through each Derby contender with bottom-line analysis.

49 It’s In The Blood:

Jen Perkins compares & contrasts the Triple Crowns in both AQHA and Thoroughbred racing.

*NEW MAY 13 ADDITION*54 PREAKNESS ADDENDUM!

4

From the Publisher

It’s our double-issue this month of May, beginning with a Kentucky Derby

preview on the pages to come. Then check back Preakness week as we insert fresh copy into the digital publication for the middle jewel of the Triple Crown.

My Countdown to the Crown weekly scouting report nears the wire of its 10th season and has been at this 2015 crop every Friday since the beginning of January. I hope you’re enjoying the weekly reports free scouting reports at Countdowntothecrown.com and continue to help spread the word. The marriage of Countdown and the HPNOW Mag was a natural in 2014 and, so, we’re going to give it another whirl in providing you expert analysis with an enhanced, digital layout.

Because of travel schedules to and from Louisville for Derby 141, this issue was published just hours prior to the post position draw. For updates see Horseplayernow.com and Countdowntothecrown.com!

- JP

Horse Player NOW Magazine Copyright 2015

Horse Player NOW All Rights Reseved

Editor, Publisher, Designer Jeremy Plonk

Contributing Writers The Teaser Jen Perkins

Photography Chief Enzina Mastrippolito (Photosbyz)

Contributing Photographers Bob Coglianese/Gulfstream Park

Lou Hodges/Fair Grounds Reed Palmer/Churchill Downs

Coady Photography/Oaklawn Park Joe Labozzetta/NYRA

Adam Coglianese/NYRA Zoe Metz Photography/Santa Anita Benoit Photography/Santa Anita

Jim McCue/Md Jockey ClubAndrea Caudill/AQHA

Ruidoso Downs Pat Cummings

5

THE TEASER:

From a wild, full-moon finish to a seemingly innocent trainer, eventually it will all make sense.

Elbows and Assh#%* The stream of puns is endless and includes words like ‘crack, behind, rear, moon, etc.’ However, Teaser don’t play that game. He’s satisfied with merely reporting the straight facts surrounding the incident.

NOT!

You think for one minute Teaser’s gonna let a jock losing his drawers during the stretch run of a race pass without comment? No freakin’ way. In case you missed it, Blake Shinn was riding in a race at Canterbury Racecourse in Australia where, soon after the start, the elastic band holding his white jockey pants in place suddenly snapped.

All would have gone unnoticed had Shinn’s mount Miss Royale not made a race out of it. Shinn dutifully encouraged her late kick and went to work scrubbing on her even as gravity simultaneously lowered his untethered drawers. As

luck would have it, Shinn wasn’t wearing any panties and in a drive to the wire, all that was visible to trailing jockeys were elbows and assh#%*… literally.

Watch the video and then tell Teaser the last time you saw anything like it? At the track, I mean, not on that website you visit during your lunch break.

Teaser, definition: A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether a mare is ready to receive a stallion. Also, perhaps the most unfulfilling occupation in the universe.

6

Seriously, Teaser’s been watchin’ races since Shoemaker had the bug and he’s seen plenty of gamblers lose their shirts, but this is the first time he’s ever watched a jock drop trou in mid-stretch.

And please, no cheap shots suggesting this incident serves as one more example of a jock riding like a smacked ass!

Mott Seeks Federal Relief Here’s one trainer cited with a speeding ticket that just may have a valid beef with the cops. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott (pictured) has filed a lawsuit in federal court designed to overturn a 15-day suspension he received in New York after one of his horses, Saratoga Snacks, tested positive for overages of the therapeutic medications furosemide (Lasix/Salix) and flunixin (banamine).

Mott’s complaint is that when he requested a split blood sample to challenge the positive, all he got was piss. Literally. Instead of a split of Saratoga Snacks’ blood

test, Mott got some of the horse’s urine. Which, when a ‘positive’ result is based on a blood test, is as useless as a stall with no webbing.

Mott’s mouthpiece is former jockey agent Drew (now Andrew) Mollica,

who got some great news recently that his former rider, the late Chris Antley, has been voted into the Hall of Fame. Anyone who knows Mollica can attest that once a federal judge gets an earful of his ‘argument,’ it’s likely Mott’s positive will be overturned quicker than a burning omelet. After an hour or so

of hearing Mollica argue, the judge just might award Mott the entire state of New York just to end the harangue!

While Mott has won over 4,500 career races, he apparently isn’t very adept at mixing an effective equine cocktail. In the race in question, an allowance race at Belmont Park on Sept. 20, 2014, Saratoga Snacks finished last.

- HPN

7

This issue we review classes from:

APRIL 2015 Since 2011, Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races. Through live chats, videos and radio simulcasts, the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers. In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine, we go “Back to Night School” with a look at some of the high points of past lessons.

The 2015 Night School season picked up steam with a keystone to the handicapping process, pace, as well as money management talk sure to boost your confidence, and maybe even your wallet.

Week 5: Mapping Out The Pace

Week 6: Psychology of the Horseplayer

Week 7: Small Bankroll Betting

Week 8: Large Bankroll Betting

8

Week 5

Guest

Week 5

Guest

Week 6

Guest

Week 6

Guest

Week 7

Guest

Week 7

Guest

Week 7

Guest

Week 8

Guest

Week 8

Guest

Week 8

Guest

9

COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL! TUESDAYS, 8:30 PM ET

CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernow.com for the racing industry’s FREE national online fan education program.

MAY 5 WHEN TO BET

MORE…AND LESS

Find out from the pros when to hold ‘em and

when to fold ‘em. Money management

in the spotlight.

MAY 12 PREAKNESS WEEK HANDICAPPING

Ask the experts directly your questions about Black-Eyed Susan &

Preakness Day races in our exclusive Q&A.

MAY 19 IDENTIFYING TRACK BIAS

Not all racetracks are created equal. Learn

tips on how to identify when biases creep in.

MAY 26 RACING FROM THE OUTSIDE

Renowned national media members talk about horse racing in

the scope of other major sports.

LOOK AHEAD: JUN 2 BELMONT WEEK HANDICAPPING

Our final Q&A chat of the spring semester

helps ready you for the big weekend to come at

Belmont Park.

10

KENTUCKY DERBY

ANALYSIS

By Jeremy Plonk

e began Season 10 of

Countdown to the Crown

on January 2 this year,

and, in many crazy ways, not much

has changed. The cream of the

2015 crop didn’t waver much from

the stars of 2014.

Sure, it was disappointing to see

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner

Texas Red sidelined, but Grade 1-

winning juveniles Dortmund, Carpe

Diem and American Pharoah not

only danced all the way to

Louisville, but they did so in

unbeaten aplomb.

Now we arrive at the main event

with the deepest 3-year-old crop at

least since 2007 featured Street

Sense, Curlin, Hard Spun, Any

Given Saturday and the filly Rags

to Riches. Maybe it reaches even

back to 1997 when Silver Charm,

Captain Bodgit, Free House and

Touch Gold lit the marquee.

The bid on the pages to come will

be to tab our third straight Derby

winner in this space. True, Orb and

California Chrome were winning

favorites and it’s never keen to

brag in horseplay when tabbing the

chalk. But $12 and $7 winners in a

race this difficult to analyze feel

like $24 and $14 winners to the

psyche. Add in some exotics love

and they feel almost magical.

There’s something about being

right on Kentucky Derby Day that

just makes it all good in this

process we tackle daily, weekly

and, for some, seasonally.

Get ready as I count down each

contender for Kentucky Derby 141

from least-fancied to the big horse

on campus at Churchill Downs.

W

11

ITSAKNOCKOUT

BOTTOM LINE: He’s training well enough, but he’s never had any sort of late steam to contend here. NOT ON MY TICKETS. Fair odds 50/1.

Prep Notes

• Scored back-to-back MSW and ALW wins at Gulfstream goingaround 1 turn, but faced no significant developing 3YOs.

Prep Notes

• 2nd-best in G2 Fountain of Youth class rise, but awarded DQwin vs. Upstart in controversial decision. 6-lb weight break.

Prep Notes

• After slow series of come-home times, was left flailing in 4th,beaten 21 lengths in G1 Florida Derby by Materiality, Upstart.

Style

• He wants to sit just to the fore of mid-pack and then grindpast lesser horses. Needs the brilliant to come back to him.

Schedule

• Late developer didn't debut until 12/7 & has raced only at GP.No modern Derby winner has come from only 1 track prior.

X-Factor

• Owners made a marketing coup with same-day Mayweather /Pacquaio pay-per-view promoters; reason why they're here?

12

13

OCHO OCHO OCHO

BOTTOM LINE: No lead, no pass is the worst situation in all of racing.NOT ON MY TICKETS. Fair odds 50/1.

Prep Notes

• 3-for-3 juvenile campaign included his defining victory in theG3 Delta Downs Jackpot, overcoming wicked post on bullring.

Prep Notes

• Tough comeback spot off 3-month layoff in San Felipe, 2015'stop-ranked Countdown race. Traffic disaster early, poor 8th.

Prep Notes

• Set tone in Blue Grass that lacked a real pace burner and putup steady splits while giving way late for 3rd. Improved try.

Style

• Wants to be near the front whether it's :43 or :48 as his PPsindicate. Showed patience at Delta and has handled all posts.

Schedule

• Suffered scrapes and cuts in San Felipe gate and first-turnfracus, but didn't miss any time. Hasn't gone to plan at age 3.

X-Factor

• Won stakes race on Breeders' Cup Saturday card in JuvenileTurf Sprint, showing he can handle a big-event crowd.

14

TENCENDUR

BOTTOM LINE: This will not be a slow pace, and therefore his chances become severely challenged. NOT ON MY TICKETS. Fair odds 50/1.

Prep Notes

• 4th in Withers at 32/1 with good pace set-up, though come-backer Far From Over looked to take charge of Aqu scene.

Prep Notes

• Added blinkers, got sizzling pace & did little with it when 5thin Gotham edition watered down by Far From Over missing.

Prep Notes

• Ran much better with a SLOW pace when tracking up close inG1 Wood; led in deep stretch before settling for runner-up.

Style

• Not a true closer, owning to miler's pedigree, so he's in no-man's land with a fast pace and can't punch late if it's slow.

Schedule

• Late to party with Dec. 12 debut, but he's been on cue since.No horse in modern era won Derby racing only at 1 track prior.

X-Factor

• Sire Warrior's Reward ran a dynamite 2nd on Derby Day '10 in the Churchill Downs Handicap. Pedigree/mind for the day?

15

16

WAR STORY

BOTTOM LINE: Inability to sustain a run likely keeps him out of the superfecta at 1-1/4 miles. NOT ON MY TICKETS. Fair odds 40/1.

Prep Notes

• 1 of 7 different horses to make lead in bizarre Lecomte editionJan. 17; wound up 2nd after being leaned on through stretch.

Prep Notes

• Redirected to Risen Star after Southwest iced out at OP, rananother good 2nd (especially with 10 days since final work).

Prep Notes

• Didn't advance cause with a 3rd in G2 Louisiana Derby whenbeaten an increasing 4-1/2 lengths by International Star.

Style

• He can't get out of the gate, which forces him to be a closer,but he's not a sustained runner and therefore prone to hang.

Schedule

• November private purchase hasn't missed a beat since comingto Amoss barn. 4 solid runs in New Orleans for this.

X-Factor

• Extremely slow breaker and horse who moves a lot in thegate; he can't be down inside or a traffic disaster looms.

17

MR. Z

BOTTOM LINE: He’s not impossible, but the wrong running style for this year trying to keep up early & late. NOT ON MY TICKETS. Fair odds 40/1.

Prep Notes

• 4 straight solid stakes placings in Delta Downs Jackpot, LosAl Futurity, Smarty Jones & Southwest made for busy winter.

Prep Notes

• Removed blinkers in disastrous retreat in Louisiana Derby,trying to split forces from Rebel-bound American Pharoah.

Prep Notes

• Even 3rd behind Amerian Pharoah in Arkansas Derby whenadding blinkers back and taking very consersvative approach.

Style

• More speed than he showed in Ark Derby when purposelykept off of fellow Zayat-owned American Pharoah. First flight.

Schedule

• With 12 career starts, he hasn't missed a beat since debutinglast June at Churchill. Will be in need of a vacation very soon.

X-Factor

• With his tendency to bear out, you hope to draw inside of himif you're a fellow horse with some early pace.

18

EL KABEIR

BOTTOM LINE: He’s 9-for-9 in the superfecta and Borel always worth Derby second-thought. But, NOT ON MY TICKETS. Fair odds 40/1.

Prep Notes

• Kentucky Jockey Club winner at CD danced all 4 winter actsat Aqu, splitting decisions at short prices in Jerome/Withers.

Prep Notes

• Changed tactics & rallied for G3 Gotham score, but clocked asslowest Gotham ever at 8.5F. Showed athleticism/niftyness.

Prep Notes

• Again tried to rally in G1 Wood, but pace didn't collapse thistime behind slow splits and well-beaten 3rd behind Frosted.

Style

• Once a speedster, then a closer. Chucky Lopez got fired forthe style that worked in the Gotham. Not sure anyone knows.

Schedule

• Ironman makes 9th straight stakes start & has been in heavyactivity since Saratoga meet last summer. Shine worn off?

X-Factor

• Calvin Borel takes the mount and he's won this race 3 timeson all types - Street Sense, Super Saver and Mine That Bird.

19

FRAMMENTO

BOTTOM LINE: You won’t find a bigger Zito homer than me, and I’m a sucker for closers. Just not this one. NOT ON MY TICKETS. Fair odds 50/1.

Prep Notes

• Outrun, 6th by 18+ lengths at 28-1, in G3 Holy Bull to open3YO season with no excuses after going 1-for-4 as juvenile.

Prep Notes

• Added blinkers and picked up John Velazquez when explodingtrifecta in G2 Fountain of Youth at 63-1, 3rd beaten 4-1/2 L.

Prep Notes

• Steady-tempo'd Blue Grass didn't set up for deep closer, buthe also didn't fire huge shot when 4th by 7-1/4 lengths.

Style

• A pure closer who will fall double-digit lengths out of theDerby early on. Needs a total meltdown to make any impact.

Schedule

• He's been in steady training since last summer's Saratogameet, but the races have been well-spaced. Handles travel.

X-Factor

• Trainer Nick Zito is a 2-time Derby winner and has won 5Triple Crown races. But he's 22: 0-1-0 in KD since Go For Gin.

20

21

STANFORD

BOTTOM LINE: Gate/class questions in a year with quality speed, but I have liked the way he’s trained. Still, NOT ON MY TICKETS. Fair odds 40/1.

Prep Notes

• Returned from 6-month layoff to win modest Gulfstream 6-furlong allowance in February despite troubled start.

Prep Notes

• Chased stablemate/next-out Fla Derby winner Materiality inovernight stakes at GP when clearly 2nd-best despite DQ.

Prep Notes

• Fit key La Derby profile & had a pace edge that day, but didn'tquite cash it in when chased down late by International Star.

Style

• He's gone to the lead in both route bids, but isn't professionalgate horse. Yet to be tested for patience in a 2-turn bid.

Schedule

• For missing 6 months, his 3 preps this year have included 2 at1-1/8 miles, so he's gotten as much as he could out of them.

X-Factor

• Copped 4 trouble comments in 5 starts, 3 at the start, so youneed him to leave smoothly & don't want to draw near him.

22

UPSTART

BOTTOM LINE: The most difficult decision (along with Mubtaahij), but in this case I’m taking a BIG chance: NOT ON MY TICKETS. Fair odds 15/1.

Prep Notes

• BC Juvenile 3rd looked like the goods with eye-catching HolyBull win to open 3yo season. Sharply dominated Frosted et al.

Prep Notes

• Bounced in Fountain of Youth and still won handily, though a50/50 DQ took his # down. Regressed effort predicted & ok.

Prep Notes

• Expected to bounce back more in Florida Derby, but was justeven pursuing Materiailty despite a big foundation edge.

Style

• Wants to sit that dream trip 1-3 lengths off pace & pounce.That could be busy real estate on Saturday w/ young jockey.

Schedule

• Good plan, but worry about exeution in that he was TOOfresh/sharp in Jan. Illness after Fla Derby adds some worry.

X-Factor

• Trained in relative secrecy at Palm Meadows in Florida &shows up mid-week in Louisville. Watch his local gallops.

23

MUBTAAHIJ

BOTTOM LINE: Educated guesses and value are everyday horseplayer realities. Admit that you’re guessing here if you play him, be okay with it,

and demand fair odds of 15/1 in straight plays. EXOTICS threat.

Prep Notes

• 5 races at Dubai carnival this season after bombing on turftwice at Newmarket. Meydan returned to dirt footing this year.

Prep Notes

• Drilled previously unbeaten southern hemisphere 4YO SirFever in 1-3/16 miles Al Bastakiya, acing his 1st distance test.

Prep Notes

• Perfect trip set-up when sitting just off duelers in G3 UAEDerby score over 1-3/16 miles. Visually striking performance.

Style

• Bad breaker upon debut, trainer de Kock seems to have thatrighted. Wants press-pounce; pedigree takes him a long way.

Schedule

• Traveling lad denied US access and regular feed not allowedin US as well. Lots of hurdles from Dubai beyond mileage.

X-Factor

• Will not run on Lasix in Derby 141. Every starter since 2005(Don't Get Mad, 4th) has had Lasix, every winner '97-present.

24

MUBTAAHIJ TRAVELED FROM DUBAI TO LOUISVILLE WITH A

QUARANTINE STOP AT ARLINGTON. IT’S NOT YOUR FATHER’S DERBY

TRAIL, SO MAKE SURE YOU GET PAID TO SEE IT THROUGH.

25

MATERIALITY

BOTTOM LINE: Highly talented, but being asked to do too much, too soon Haven't liked how hot he's gotten in mornings at Churchill Downs.

Fringe EXOTICS contender with fair win odds approximately 12/1.

Prep Notes

• Debuted Jan. 11 an easy winner in slop at Gulfstream at 6furlongs, beating eventual G3 Bay Shore 4th Easy to Say.

Prep Notes

• Stretched out 3 furlongs to romp in 1-1/8 miles overnightstakes at GP, besting eventual G2 La Derby 2nd Stanford.

Prep Notes

• Wired G1 Florida Derby over slow track as he and Upstartspread-eagled an otherwise overmatched field.

Style

• He's never passed more than 1 horse in a race, and he's alsoreplicated that similar style both sprinting and routing.

Schedule

• Playing catchup with the calendar. Came out of Timonium salewith "baby stuff" issues, Pletcher said, and never raced at 2.

X-Factor

• No horse in modern history has won Derby having only racedat 1 track prior. Sister My Miss Sophia was 2nd in 2014 Oaks.

26

MATERIALITY BECAME THE REAL ‘UPSTART’ IN THE FLORIDA DERBY

Worth Noting

The Curse of Apollo is alive and well, dating back to 1882 as the last time a

horse who did not race as a 2-year-old went on to Kentucky Derby glory.

Those bidding for such a feat are 58: 0-3-4 all-time. Bodemeister and Curlin

are the only ones to hit the Kentucky Derby trifecta in the past 20 years.

27

INTERNATIONAL STAR

BOTTOM LINE: Rates perhaps best chance of the closers in a year loaded with superior speed. EXOTICS threat with fair win odds about 15/1.

Prep Notes

• 7 different horses led at some point in strangely run Lecomte,where he got last laugh at 9/1 (biggest upset on trail in '14).

Prep Notes

• Showed handy athleticism in Risen Star win vs. similar cast asLecomte with exception of late-running Keen Ice via Florida.

Prep Notes

• 4th horse ever to sweep Louisiana Derby series, first since '09 Derby fav Friesan Fire. Ran 2L faster than same-day NO Hcp.

Style

• A closer with a smallish frame in the cut-out of a Mine ThatBird (also with a WO Polytrack resume at 2). Needs fast pace.

Schedule

• Essentially in race mode since early summer '14 & this is 9thconsecutive stakes. Foundation, check. Break time, maybe?

X-Factor

• Eerily similar resume to Orb & California Chrome, 3-for-3 atage 3 like that pair also after having several losses at age 2.

28

MIGUEL MENA GIVES PRAISE AFTER LOUISIANA DERBY SCORE. 29

KEEN ICE

BOTTOM LINE: While there may be 10-12 better overall horses in this field, his style/pedigree put him in EXOTICS contention. Fair odds 30/1.

Prep Notes

• No chance in Holy Bull behind soft pace & faster horses overshort stretch at GP. Late interest & gallop out caught eye.

Prep Notes

• Loved the way he finished up when 3rd in Risen Star andpointed toward a real late player in this crop. Light-bulb lit?

Prep Notes

• Regressed some when a wide/disapppointing 4th in La Derbybehind modest pace. Expected to see more late & didn't.

Style

• Figures to drop far back early and let the classy speed softenitself ... in hopes of launching a stretch bid. Best & only shot.

Schedule

• Classic Derby resume with 4 races at 2, including ascension tostakes, and 3 solid preps right on trainer's schedule at age 3.

X-Factor

• Hall of Fame jockey Kent Desormeaux has won 3 Derbys (RealQuiet, Fusaichi Pegaus, Big Brown) and fits his finishing style.

30

Worth Noting

On pedigree, Keen Ice is a son of 2007

Kentucky Derby 3rd-place finisher Curlin, who

went on to Preakness, Breeders’ Cup Classic

and Dubai World Cup glory. His damsire,

Awesome Again, won what many regard the

deepest race ever run in the US, the 1998

Breeders’ Cup Classic at Churchill Downs. If

there’s a 1-1/4 miles pedigree – with a lean to

the classics and Churchill Downs – it’s Keen Ice.

31

FAR RIGHT

BOTTOM LINE: Needs American Pharoah to come back to him as he can’t close that gap on his own. But he’s a valid EXOTICS threat. Fair odds 20/1.

Prep Notes

• Rallied up fence to win Smarty Jones at Oaklawn despite noroom to go on turn; Mr. Z bore out and he took advantage.

Prep Notes

• Copy-and-paste trip and inside rally to add G3 Southwest atOaklawn, this time beating Mr. Z et al on the square.

Prep Notes

• Distant 2nd, beaten 8 lengths, in G1 Arkansas Derby behindheavy favorite American Pharoah. Solid final 3F in :37-3/5.

Style

• A defined closer, he'll be among back third of field going ontothe backstretch of Derby 141. Style netted 9-9 in super so far.

Schedule

• Everything has gone exactly to plan, including a scheduledbypass of the Rebel in order to have a fresher Derby horse.

X-Factor

• Mike Smith opted to ride him over Bolo, and if this is a melt-down Derby, recall it was Smith who orchestrated Giacomo.

32

Far Right found the rail and the finish in the Smarty Jones & Southwest.

33

DANZIG MOON

BOTTOM LINE: Nothing on his form says he beats all the big players at this point, but he’s a VERY live wire progressing for EXOTICS.Fair win odds approximately 20/1, but must-use underneath.

Prep Notes

• After 0-2 campaign, returned Feb. 7 with easy GP allowancewin over soft field. Modest come-home in 1-turn mile.

Prep Notes

• Never fired when distant 4th in G2 Tampa Derby, but 12Ldefeat looked better when 1st/3rd returned to win stakes.

Prep Notes

• Showed progress in G1 Blue Grass 2nd and closed on eventerms with Carpe Diem while clearly 2nd-best. Positive step.

Style

• He's been anywhere from 1-11 lengths off the lead early andthat versatility will help in a Derby field overflowing with pace.

Schedule

• Races are well-spaced, he got a decent Fall foundation at 2and he's been training very well since the Blue Grass. All +.

X-Factor

• Owner Oxley's already won Derby (Monarchos) & hesitant togo here if it would compromise Queen's Plate. Horse said yes.

34

Worth Noting

As an Ontario-sired runner, Danzig Moon is

one of the favorites for the $1 million Queen’s

Plate on July 5 in his homeland. The last

Canadian-bred to win the Derby was Sunny’s

Halo in 1983. Last year, We Miss Artie was

10th in the Derby and went on to win the Plate

Trial and finish fourth in the Queen’s Plate.

35

FROSTED

BOTTOM LINE: Right on the fringe of a win contender most years, but will slot him EXOTICS player vs. the best of the west in 2015. Fair odds 10/1.

Prep Notes

• Waited in good position behind 3-way duel in Holy Bull, butfailed to deliver strong late kick when 2nd-best to Upstart.

Prep Notes

• Looked long gone on lead at top of Fountain of Youth lane,but threw head up & stopped to 4th. Likely displaced palate.

Prep Notes

• After minor throat surgery, returned in G1 Wood to blow bythem late in 4th-slowest Wood since '90. Sharp :36.90 last 3F.

Style

• Early pace figures were off the charts in Fla over a deceivinglyslow track. Then showed new closing element in NY. Versatile.

Schedule

• Nice 4-start 2YO campaign that progressed, followed by rock-solid 3-prep series at 3. Throat surgery post-FoY huge factor.

X-Factor

• Super agent Ron Anderson maneuvered Rosario onto Orb latein '13 & specifically targeted Frosted after the throat surgery.

36

Frosted (4) found his breath & the winner’s circle in a Wood Memorial rally.

Worth Noting

Everyone remembers Giacomo’s shocker at 50/1 in

2005, but lest we forget the even bigger-priced runner-

up, Closing Argument, orchestrated by trainer Kiaran

McLaughlin at 71/1. He’s won a Belmont Stakes and

trained a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner. There’s no

reason why a Kentucky Derby can’t be in his future.

37

FIRING LINE

BOTTOM LINE: Stevens may put him on lead. Outside chance to wire and be a win contender, but fits best in EXOTICS. Fair odds approximately 8/1.

Prep Notes

• Went toe-to-toe with Dortmund in Los Alamitos Futurity infirst 2-turn race for both, besting Mr. Z who had routed.

Prep Notes

• Taxing 2nd to Dortmund in Lewis Memorial in which Stevenstried to break race open in upper stretch but rival re-rallied.

Prep Notes

• 14-1/4 length Sunland Derby win in record time over souped-up surface. 3rd-largest final Derby prep margin in 100 years.

Style

• On pace numbers as fast or faster than any of these and hisrider has won the Derby on the front with Winning Colors.

Schedule

• After 2 melees with Dortmund, wisely took the easier path viaSunland and avoided a bounce situation. Foundation in place.

X-Factor

• 1,350-foot stretch tussle with Dortmund in late Decemberindicates he may handle 1,234-1/2 feet of lane in Louisville.

38

CLICK VIDEO ABOVE TO RELIVE THE LOS AL FUTURITY

Worth Noting

Consider that Ruler On Ice, Mine That Bird,

Astrology & Commissioner all lost the Sunland

Derby and went on to Triple Crown placings just

since 2009, including Kentucky Derby & Belmont

wins. So while the race may not have the fanfare

of some, it’s productivity has been solid enough.

39

BOLO

BOTTOM LINE: Visually stunning on his first day on the track at CD on Monday, he may be a bounce-back EXOTICS threat. Fair odds 20/1.

Prep Notes

• Drew off by 4-1/2 to win the Eddie Logan on turf and wrap upa juvenile sesaon in which all 3 starts were on the grass.

Prep Notes

• Strong dirt debut 3rd in San Felipe, #1 ranked Countdownrace of '15, despite coming off 10-week layoff & missed time.

Prep Notes

• Bounced off too-good San Felipe return when a flat-late 3rd inG1 Santa Anita Derby, beaten 6-1/2 lengths by Dortmund.

Style

• He's much faster early than you think and quite possibly couldbe among the first 5 down the backstretch in Derby 141.

Schedule

• Hind end soreness and inclement weather disrupted his winterin January-February. Trainer Carla Gaines played catch-up.

X-Factor

• Mike Smith jumped off him to ride Far Right, and it was Smithwho said after the SA Derby that Bolo doesn't handle dirt well.

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BOLO has moved back into the discussion with his work since SA Derby.

Click above to see BOLO challenge DORTMUND in a San Felipe showdown.

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AMERICAN PHAROAH

BOTTOM LINE: Feels more like a Preakness winner than Derby, bututmost respect and EXOTICS inclusion must. Fair odds approximately 5/1.

Prep Notes

• Diverted from stablemate Dortmund to OP. Note: barn's keyTC successes via Cali (Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Point Given).

Prep Notes

• Handled sloppy track in easy Rebel return win; showed abilityto travel. Tremendous early pace edge despite lost shoe.

Prep Notes

• No new challenges surfaced for Arkansas Derby, where he putup a time/effort befitting of Curlin, Bodemeister, Afleet Alex.

Style

• In his career, he's passed only 1 horse, a hopeless Ark Derbylongshot. Pace figs say he may need to pass 5-6 in Louisville.

Schedule

• Out nearly 6 months with reported footbruise pre-BC, he hasnot been tested 2 starts at 3. Derby 3rd "road game" of '15.

X-Factor

• No CA-based horse who hit the road for his final Derby prephas worn roses since Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000 via the Wood.

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CARPE DIEM

BOTTOM LINE: Legitimate WIN contender and reliable top 5 performer.It's just a matter if he has enough late. Fair odds approximately 5/1.

Prep Notes

• Quality return win in Tampa Bay Derby underscored by DanzigMoon's next-out Blue Grass 2nd, Divining Rod's Lexington win.

Prep Notes

• Tampa Bay Derby slowed late on clock. Street Sense/AnyGiven Saturday in 2007 went 4th quarter 6-7 lengths faster.

Prep Notes

• Came home much stronger in Blue Grass win, nearly 5L fasterfinal 3 furlongs than G1 winner Majestic Harbor on same card.

Style

• Maybe best with 1st-over run, but has won on lead and recallhis deep close for 2nd in BC Juvenile behind sizzling pace.

Schedule

• Exact plan mapped out by Elliott Walden of WinStar and ToddPletcher came to fruition without a hiccup - Street Sense path.

X-Factor

• Showed reluctance to load in the Tampa Bay Derby in firststart off layoff, but behaved at Keeneland. Monitor pre-race.

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CARPE DIEM has done his best work at Keeneland,

including his workouts leading up to Kentucky Derby 141.

Worth Noting

You'll hear much about no Blue Grass winner since '91 adding a Derby,

but race was 4 weeks out from Derby Day this year for the 1st time.

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DORTMUND

BOTTOM LINE: Top WIN contender and potential key. Fair odds will be in the 7/2 neighborhood.

Prep Notes

• Throwdown in Lewis with Firing Line was a taxing race inwhich he galloped out best and showed guts. Bounce next?

Prep Notes

• Kicking down barn, Baffert couldn't await SA Derby like hehad planned; sharp San Felipe win rated top 3YO race of '15.

Prep Notes

• Bounce came in SA Derby with regressed effort & slow come-home time - and yet he still won in hand. That's impressive.

Style

• Big son of Big Brown employs a cruising speed that oftencrushes his competition and then completes the transaction.

Schedule

• 4/18 work after SA Derby was everything you'd want to seeexiting a race in which he wasn't quite his best. No tailspin.

X-Factor

• Don't overvalue prior Churchill win; loose/cuppy track thattime of year NOTHING like tight, watered, rolled one at Derby.

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DORTMUND’s San Felipe win (above) ranks #1 in Countdown this year.

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48

It’s in the Blood:

Thoroughbreds & Quarter Horses

prepare to capture the elusive Triple Crown

By Jen Perkins

Triple Crown season is upon us once again – a time when the entire country turns an eye to the sport of horse racing and even casual fans know the three-year-old crop by name. Together, we all cheer for a sweep of one of the

most difficult series of races: the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes.

Sir Barton happened to win all three races in 1919, but at the time, it was not a much-heralded

event. In fact, the series of races that comprise the Triple Crown did not exist in their current form until 1931. Before this date, there were some years in which the Preakness was held before the Derby, other years in which the Belmont was held before the Preakness, and let’s hope you weren’t trying to win all three races in 1917 or 1922, because in each of those years, the Derby and the Preakness were run on the same day.

To further complicate matters, the Belmont was run clockwise prior to 1921, and the varying distance was as long as a mile and five furlongs. It is exceedingly challenging for a horse to win the Triple Crown today, though at least now the series is predictable.

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It is even more difficult to complete the same task as a Quarter Horse.

The Triple Crown of Quarter Horse racing comprises the Ruidoso Futurity, the Rainbow Futurity, and the premier event in Quarter Horse racing, the All American Futurity. Quarter Horse fans often compare the All American to the Kentucky Derby in terms of the importance of the event, but as it is also the third leg of the Triple Crown, it carries as nearly as much importance as the Derby and the Belmont combined. The entire series takes place at Ruidoso Downs in New Mexico.

2015 Quarter Horse Triple Crown Schedule

Sunday, June 7th: $750,000Ruidoso Futurity (G1)

Sunday, July 19th: $1 millionRainbow Futurity (G1)

Monday, Sept. 7th: $3 millionAll American Futurity (G1)

For many fans eager to see a Triple Crown winner, Belmont Stakes day has become a day of disappointment in recent years. Hope springs eternal for followers of all breeds of horse racing, however, because each year the

Quarter Horse Triple Crown begins on the day after the Belmont Stakes.

The pain of California Chrome’s Belmont loss in 2014 was certainly assuaged by the victory of the brilliant Kiss My Hocks in the Ruidoso Futurity the following day as he kicked off another Triple Crown bid.

Near Misses

In the history of the pursuit of the Triple Crown, there have been 23 instances in which a horse won the first two legs but either lost or did not run in the Belmont Stakes. Interestingly, it is even more common for a horse to win the Belmont and either the Derby or the Preakness (29 times) and includes such horses as Man o’ War in 1920 and Native Dancer in 1953.

There are fewer near misses in the Quarter Horse Triple Crown due to the sheer difficulty in making it to each race. A series of time trials, sometimes as many as 20 or more, precedes each leg to determine the field. In reality, a potential Quarter Horse Triple Crown winner has to run six times, three times in trials and three times in the main events.

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Last year, Jm Miracle (pictured) won only one leg of the Triple Crown, the All American, but he did qualify to all three legs, as did Bodacious Eagle, which is an impressive accomplishment.

Thoroughbred Triple Crown Winners 1919: Sir Barton 1930: Gallant Fox 1935: Omaha 1937: War Admiral 1941: Whirlaway 1943: Count Fleet 1946: Assault 1948: Citation 1973: Secretariat 1977: Seattle Slew 1978: Affirmed

Quarter Horse Triple Crown Winners 1981: Special Effort

It may feel like an eternity since the last Triple Crown was won by Affirmed in 1978. Quarter Horse fans sympathize but are more

realistic: the first and last time a Quarter Horse completed the Triple Crown was Special Effort in 1981.

Triple Crown Bloodlines

Affirmed and Special Effort have more in common than simply being the most recent Triple Crown winner of their breed. They also share the same bloodlines. Affirmed’s sire, Exclusive Native, and Special Effort’s sire, Raise Your Glass, were both sired by the champion Raise a Native, one of the sport’s most influential sires.

Raise a Native was by Native Dancer, whose only loss in 22 starts was by a nose in the Kentucky Derby. Triple Crown accomplishments by Affirmed and Special Effort have helped to make up for the disappointing loss by

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Native Dancer who would have been a deserving Triple Crown winner.

Perhaps progeny of the close calls of this generation will make amends for the Triple Crowns that might have been, and if so, we could witness history this year. In 2005, Afleet Alex (pictured) battled traffic in the stretch to place third in the Kentucky Derby, but won the Preakness and the Belmont.

In 2008, Big Brown did not finish in the Belmont after winning the Derby and Preakness. In the 2015 Kentucky Derby, Afleet Alex will be represented by Materiality, and Big Brown by Dortmund, as each tries to avenge their sires’ Triple Crown losses.

As for the Quarter Horse Triple Crown hopefuls, the season has only just begun. Trials for the first leg will take place near Memorial Day, allowing handicappers and fans enough time to enjoy the

Thoroughbred Triple Crown attempt and prepare to ease the pain in case history repeats itself on Belmont Stakes Day. As always, catch the Ruidoso trials and futurities, along with Quarter Horse racing across the county, on live streaming Q-Racing Video. (www.qracingvideo.com)

Jen Perkins has been a member of the Wrangler Racing Aces fan education program from the American Quarter Horse Association (AQHA) since 2010. She completed the Race

Track Industry Program at the University of Arizona and has been involved in Thorough-bred and Quarter Horse racing as an owner, breeder, and handicapper for over 20 years.

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By Jeremy Plonk

tumultuous past

month in Baltimore

has left Charm City

a place of civil unrest and

even events as big as the

Preakness seem minor in

compare. But for just

under 2 minutes on

Saturday, the nation will

look to Maryland for a

respite to the news cycle and a

headline for its sports pages and

sportscasts. Will it be American

Pharoah delivering a follow-up act

to his Kentucky Derby glory? Or

might runner-up Firing Line and

the ageless Gary Stevens prove

turn-about is fair play?

And, oh the ironic spice in the crab

cakes if Bob Baffert thwarts his

own Triple Crown bid with Derby

third Dortmund! Our season-long

analysis of the 3-year-old crop

continues with our look from the

bottom to the top of the charts for

Preakness 140.

A

Click to watch Derby 141 replay!

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BODHISATTVA

BOTTOM LINE: David, meet 3 Goliaths. NOT ON MY TICKETS. Fair win odds 50/1.

The Latest

• Tesio winner owns a local victory, but it's been since 1972since a Pimlico prepper won Preakness & '83 for any local.

Form Cycle

• Most heavily raced horse in Preakness 140 making 12thlifetime start. He's raced every month dating back to August.

Pace Style

• Best recent races came behind dawdling paces when able toset the table or contend for lead. That's implausible Saturday.

Vulnerability

• He couldn't match strides with Bridget's Big Luvy before thatone tried American Pharoah and was trashed in Ark Derby.

Best Case Scenario

• He takes back and makes one run and tries to pass a fewtired horses. Pressing these steeds early is bad business.

X-Factor

• Sire Student Council won Pimlico Special locally and his jockeyTrevor McCarthy is Maryland's top young pilot. Even still ...

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Click above to see BODHISATTVA’s final Preakness workout and comments

from trainer Jose Corrales.

Worth NotingWhile no locally based horse has won the middle jewel of the Triple Crown

since Deputed Testamony in 1983, several have had some exotics impact.

Runner-ups since the new millennium include Maryland’s Magic Weisner in

2002 at 45/1, Scra ppy T in ‘05 at 13/1 & Sweetnorthernsaint in ‘06 at 8/1.

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TALE OF VERVE

BOTTOM LINE: As much as I like closers behind fast paces, I can’t make the leap to put this one into top 3. NOT ON MY TICKETS. Fair odds 40/1.

The Latest

• Excluded from Kentucky Derby due to lack of points, DallasStewart looks to follow up on '13-'14 longshot Derby 2nds.

Form Cycle

• Has 2 weeks' additional rest on the Derby set, but took 6races to break his maiden and struck out this winter at FG.

Pace Style

• He'll be last early and hope to pick off tiring horses as theyfade through pack. Expect him 12-15 lengths off fast pace.

Vulnerability

• Resume lacks another single G3-type 3YO to date, much lessone of the strongest 1-2-3 Derby trifectas returning in years.

Best Case Scenario

• If Golden Soul and Commanding Curve can finish 2nd in theDerby with this style for Stewart, all he needs is a meltdown.

X-Factor

• Joel Rosario has had at least one Triple Crown top 3 finish in2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and was 4th in the Derby on Frosted.

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DIVINING ROD

BOTTOM LINE: He’s been a pari-mutuel friend to me all season, but in this case, a fringe EXOTICS CONTENDER. Fair win odds 20/1.

The Latest

• Barbaro's owners return to Preakness for first time since '06with a visually impressive winner of the Lexington Stakes.

Form Cycle

• 5 career races all within current program dating back to Nov.He's been well-spaced and managed; fresher than Derby set.

Pace Style

• He's never been more than a few jumps off the lead and heshowed determination on the front at Tampa. More pace heat.

Vulnerability

• He's battled foot problems this year (quarter cracks / barshoes) and his mama was a turf star. Body may ask for grass.

Best Case Scenario

• In a dream sequence, they don't respect him, let him set aneasy pace and the Derby horses all bounce. Likely? Hardly.

X-Factor

• Former Clement assistant Arnaud Delacour waited for a top gun rider to come free and landed superstar Javier Castellano.

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MR. Z

BOTTOM LINE: Don’t be shocked if he hits the board 3rd or 4th at big odds, so consider an EXOTICS contender. Dubious win chances. Fair odds 15/1.

The Latest

• Sold Wednesday & became 11th-hour Preakness entrant as D.Wayne Lukas facilitated transaction from Zayat to Calument.

Form Cycle

• Has been in steady race-mode since June of last year withouta break, making 14th start lifetime in Preakness - tops in field.

Pace Style

• Much more early speed than he's shown in recent races andwould be no surprise to see him competing for the lead.

Vulnerability

• Mr. Z has lost 12 straight races and has had a problem goingstraight, bearing out several times, and inward in Derby.

Best Case Scenario

• He took Dortmund and Firing Line to a 3-way photo finish inthe Los Al Futurity in which he set the pace, losing by a head.

X-Factor

• Probably his best race this year came in Arkansas Derby when3rd to American Pharoah - on 2 weeks' rest like Saturday.

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DANZIG MOON

BOTTOM LINE: He needs a lot to go right to shock the Preakness, and a fair amount still to land as an EXOTICS CONTENDER. Fair odds 8/1.

The Latest

• Confident placement in Preakness after troubled KentuckyDerby trip in which he took much early bouncing.

Form Cycle

• Steady progression of races and it would have been easy forCasse/Oxley to rest him and point to July 5 Queen's Plate.

Pace Style

• Ran even-steven in Derby and maybe was too close to paceafter adrenaline kicked in from early traffic. Settles more?

Vulnerability

• He was no match for Carpe Diem in Blue Grass 2nd and thatone was Derby's biggest disappointment. Below top cusp?

Best Case Scenario

• If American Pharoah, Firing Line and Dortmund attack oneanother more than they did in Derby, the late hope rides here.

X-Factor

• Jockey Julien Leparoux won the Lexington aboard DiviningRod and opted to jump off that runner to stay with this one.

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AMERICAN PHAROAH

BOTTOM LINE: Highly legitimate favorite and WIN contender, but only 2 Preakness winners from rail since 1951.

Fair odds 9/5 if both Firing Line & Dortmund start given draw.

The Latest

• Baffert looks to go 4-for-4 at Pimlico with his Derby winners;Californians to win Derby are 6-for-8 in Preakness since '89.

Form Cycle

• Preakness will be his 3rd start in 5 weeks; it's noteworthy thatArkansas Derby is the lone '3-week' prep pre-Kentucky.

Pace Style

• Showed some patience down backstretch of Derby that willbode well for him down the line. Can take control or sit a bit.

Vulnerability

• Exits a taxing race after having very little foundation underhim this year or last. Reasonable chance he could bounce.

Best Case Scenario

• If the Derby galvanized him and he can once again sit 3rdbehind a Firing Line/Dortmund duel, it should be lights out.

X-Factor

• It will be much easier for the opposition to ride against him ina short field than in the Derby. Keeping him clear will be key.

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American Pharoah soaked up the attention of being THE Derby winner.

Photo courtesy: Mike Kane

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FIRING LINE

BOTTOM LINE: Stands a major chance to turn the tables on the Derby champ as a WIN CONTENDER with a delicious post draw. Fair odds 5/2.

The Latest

• Baffert looks to go 4-for-4 at Pimlico with his Derby winners;Californians to win Derby are 6-for-8 in Preakness since '89.

Form Cycle

• He could not be sitting ANY prettier given the 6-week breakbetween the Sunland Derby and Kentucky Derby.

Pace Style

• He may be naturally faster than both Dortmund and American Pharoah if let loose early, but wide draw allows him to spy.

Vulnerability

• He's lost 4 races by 1-3/4 lengths;l at some point you have todecide if he's a second-best fighter or a hanger to a degree.

Best Case Scenario

• If Dortmund backs off a bit and lets Firing Line go, he couldget brazen to any challenges late. Still a lone speed chance.

X-Factor

• Gary Stevens aims for his 10th Triple Crown race win & haslearned to put the left-hand stick away on Firing Line.

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Gary Stevens is only 2 years removed from his upset with Oxbow. 64

DORTMUND

BOTTOM LINE: A WIN CONTENDER, he would not surprise me in the least bit to reverse the Derby finish ala Curlin in 2007. Fair odds 5/2, but you're

much more likely to see something near 4/1 and the value pendulum swings his way on the third Saturday in May.

The Latest

• 5-time Preakness winner Bob Baffert sending him to Pimlico isnotable. He's never run a stablemate here vs. a Derby champ.

Form Cycle

• Races appear well-spaced on paper, but cramming San Felipein-between Lewis & SA Derby may turn out to be too much.

Pace Style

• Naturally fast & determined, but a bit suprised he was madethe target in Derby. Can sit anywhere 1-2-3 and impact race.

Vulnerability

• Had issues saddling pre-race at Churchill & in schooling andwas quite agitated behind starting gate pre-Ky Derby. Watch.

Best Case Scenario

• If he relaxes pre-race and isn't pushed for too much too soonin the Preakness, he could be a tough hombre to pass late.

X-Factor

• Ran the second-fastest third quarter in Kentucky Derbyhistory and that had much to do with his Louisville loss.

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COUNTDOWN

PREAKNESS

PICKS:

Win:

DORTMUND

(pictured)

Place:

FFIRINGG LINE

Show:

AMERICANPHAROAH

Fourth:

DANZIG MOON

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