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WISE M NEYA Weekly Update from SMC
(For private circulation only)
HAPPY TEEJ26TH JULY, 2017
MAY GOD BLESS YOU WITHWEALTH AND PROSPERITYON THE OCCASION OF TEEJ
2017: Issue 589, Week: 24th - 27th July
Bra
nd s
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From The Desk Of Editor
(Saurabh Jain)
SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.
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tock markets globally gained during the week with U.S. equities touching life time
highs. Both Bank of Japan (BOJ) and European Central Bank (ECB) maintained their Smega stimulus in the review meeting. In the monetary policy review meeting, ECB
said that it expects borrowing to costs to stay at present level for longer and the bank is
prepared to increase the size of bond purchase program in case economy take a turn for the
worse. The BOJ now expects to hit its 2 percent inflation target around the fiscal year
starting in April 2019, a year later than a previous projection. China's economy expanded at
an annual rate of 6.9 percent in the second quarter against the prior year beating the
expectations of 6.8 percent. Chinese Central Bank pumped cash in the financial system
after overnight money rate touched four-week high due to seasonal demand driven by tax
and dividend payments.
Back at home, the result season that has just started has seen more hits than misses. To say
in the IT sector mixed results were seen and in the cement sector- ACC surprised on a
positive note. Reliance Industries too came with a good set of numbers and among the
banks, private sector banks were seen performing better than public sector banks. Revising
developing Asia's 2017 growth forecast to 5.9 percent from 5.7 percent, Asian Development
Bank kept India 2017 GDP forecast at 7.4 percent and 2018 at 7.6 percent. The Indian
market has already rallied 20 percent so far in 2017 and it is expected that market will
continue to make new highs as India is still one of the fastest growing economies in the
world. Going next week, the market may remain volatile because of F&O expiry. June 2017
quarterly results, progress of monsoon rains, global macroeconomic data, trend in global
markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional
investors (DIIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement
will dictate trend on the bourses in the week ahead.
On the commodity market front, finally CRB index regained some strength owing to fresh
buying in bullion, energy and oilseeds counter. Gold can face resistance near $1270 in
COMEX and 29000 in MCX while it has support near $1200 in COMEX and $27400 in MCX.
Crude oil prices may continue to trade volatile. Outcome of OPEC and non OPEC members
meeting on 24th July and inventory data can give further direction to the prices. Overall
crude oil can trade in range of 2900-3200 in MCX. Nickel prices is still looking promising, got
boost from the increasing steel production in China, which rose 5.7% in June as mills in the
world's top producer ramp up production due to fat profits from rallying prices. Some
important data and events mostly are scheduled this week and some of them are Consumer
Confidence, GDP, FOMC rate decision, Durable Goods Orders, Advance Goods Trade Balance
of US, CPI of Japan, CPI of Germany, GDP of Canada, CPI of Australia, GDP of UK etc.
Contents
Equity 4-7
Derivatives 8-9
Commodity 10-13
Currency 14
IPO 15
FD Monitor 16
Mutual Fund 17-18
SMC GLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.
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NEWS
DOMESTIC NEWSPharmaceutical • Aurobindo Pharma has received final approval from the USFDA to
manufacture and market Sevelamer Carbonate tablets in the American market. The tablets are indicated for control of serum phosphorus in patients with chronic kidney disease on dialysis. This product, a therapeutic equivalent generic version of Genzyme's Renvela tablets, is being launched immediately. The approved product has an estimated market size of USD 1.9 billion for the 12 months to May 2017, according to IMS.
• Natco Pharma had received the Establishment Inspection Report (EIR) from the United States (US) Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the inspection conducted at its drug formulations facility at Kuthur Unit, Telangana.EIR is given when the unit meets the expectations of the US drug regulator on current good manufacturing practice (CGMP) regulations and other aspects.
• Suven Life Sciences has secured a product patent from Australia corresponding to the New Chemical Entities (NCEs) for the treatment of disorders associated with Neurodegenerative diseases and these Patents are valid through 2034.
• Zydus Cadila has launched mesalamine delayed release tablets, used for the treatment of ulcerative colitis, in the US market. Zydus Cadila said this product is the only generic of Lialda available to patients in the US.
Cement• Ultratech Cement announced a `2,600-crore new integrated cement
plant in Madhya Pradesh with a capacity of 3.5 million tonne per annum, which will increase its capacity to 96.5 mt by FY19.
Healthcare• Apollo Hospitals is gearing for the next stage of an expansion plan that
would see an addition of around 2,000 beds. The hospital chain is in the final stage of its current three-year expansion plan, which targeted to add 2,500 beds.
Automobile • Mahindra and Mahindra is set to open its maiden greenfield auto
manufacturing plant in Detroit this fiscal year--the first Indian car company that will have one in the country--to make off-road utility vehicles as the $19 billion conglomerate looks to double its bets in one of the world's most important markets, said group chairman Anand Mahindra.
• Tata Motors rolled out the country's first bio-CNG (bio-methane) bus. The company displayed three models, including the lead model Tata LPO 1613 with 5.7 SGI NA BS-IV IOBD-II compliant bus.
Miscellaneous• Bata India plans to open 100 new company-owned stores this year apart from
expanding into smaller markets with around 30 franchisee-owned outletsOil & Gas• Oil India has submitted a feasibility report to the Central government for
laying gas pipeline from Barauni in Bihar to Numaligarh in Assam to tackle shortage of gas in the North Eastern state.
• HPCL will invest 61,000 crore over the next four years in expanding and upgrading its existing refining capacity to meet higher quality fuel norms.
Metal• JSW Group is in talks with West Bengal government to set up an industrial
park on 2500 acres of land at Salboni, the site of its proposed steel cum power unit. While the group had acquired nearly 4300 acres, it is hoping to use 1500 acres for setting up various units under its paints, cement and steel and power business.
• Tata Sponge Iron has received environment clearance to raise the capacity of its Keonjhar facility in Odisha to 425,000 tonnes per annum.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS• U.S leading economic index climbed by 0.6 percent in June after rising by
a revised 0.2 percent in May. Economists had expected the index to rise by 0.4 percent compared to the 0.3 percent increase originally reported for the previous month.
• U.S initial jobless claims fell to 233,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week's revised level of 248,000.Economists had expected jobless claims to edge down to 245,000 from the 247,000 originally reported for the previous week.
• U.S general business conditions index dropped to 9.8 in July from '19.8 in June, although a positive reading still indicates growth. Economists had expected the index to fall to 15.0
• European Central Bank left its key interest rates and massive stimulus unchanged for an eleventh straight session, and also kept the forward guidance intact, thus retaining the downward bias on asset purchases.
• Japan trade surplus of 439.907 billion yen in June, the Ministry of Finance said - down 35.9 percent on year.The headline figure was shy of expectations for a surplus of 488.0 billion yen following the 204.2 billion yen deficit in May.
• The Bank of Japan left its massive monetary stimulus unchanged and pushed back the timeframe to achieve its 2 percent inflation target.
· China's Gross domestic product grew 6.9 percent year-on-year, the same pace of expansion as seen in the first quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics said. The annual growth was forecast to slow to 6.8 percent.
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Ex-Date Company Purpose
24-Jul-17 Tata Consultancy Serv. Interim Dividend - Rs 7/- Per Share24-Jul-17 Lupin Dividend - Rs 7.50 Per Share25-Jul-17 ACC Interim Dividend - Rs 11/- Per Share26-Jul-17 Mangalore Refinery & Petr. Dividend - Rs 6/- Per Share26-Jul-17 Cipla Dividend - Rs 2/- Per Share26-Jul-17 Emami Dividend-Rs 5.25 Per Share27-Jul-17 Cummins India Dividend - Rs 9/- Per Share27-Jul-17 Arvind Dividend - Rs 2.40 Per Share27-Jul-17 RBL Bank Dividend - Rs 1.80 Per Share27-Jul-17 MRF Dividend - Rs 54/- Per Share28-Jul-17 Bharat Forge Dividend - Rs 5/- Per Share28-Jul-17 Britannia Industries Dividend - Rs 22/- Per Share
Meeting Date Company Purpose
24-Jul-17 Indiabulls Housing Finance Results/Dividend24-Jul-17 Housing & Urban
Development Corporation Results24-Jul-17 HDFC Bank Results24-Jul-17 Ambuja Cements Results/Dividend25-Jul-17 Vedanta Results25-Jul-17 L&T Technology Services Results/Others25-Jul-17 GlaxoSmithKline
Pharmaceuticals Results25-Jul-17 Bharti Airtel Results25-Jul-17 Axis Bank Results26-Jul-17 Yes Bank Results/Stock Split27-Jul-17 Tata Coffee Results27-Jul-17 Reliance Capital Results27-Jul-17 Maruti Suzuki India Results27-Jul-17 Oil & Natural Gas Cor. Results27-Jul-17 ITC Results27-Jul-17 IDFC Bank Results/Others27-Jul-17 IDFC Results27-Jul-17 Idea Cellular Results27-Jul-17 HCL Technologies Results/Dividend27-Jul-17 ICICI Bank Results27-Jul-17 Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Results28-Jul-17 Larsen & Toubro Results/Others
FORTHCOMING EVENTS
NOTES:1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name
of "Morning Mantra ".2) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength
coming into the stock. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.
TREND SHEET
Stocks *Closing Trend Date Rate SUPPORT RESISTANCE Closing
Price Trend Trend
Changed Changed
S&P BSE SENSEX 32029 UP 18.11.16 25627 30400 29750
NIFTY50 9915 UP 27.01.17 8641 9400 9200
NIFTY IT 10712 UP 21.07.17 10712 10300 10100
NIFTY BANK 24257 UP 27.01.17 19708 22700 22400
ACC 1709 UP 27.01.17 1431 1650 1600
BHARTIAIRTEL 411 UP 03.02.17 354 370 360
BPCL 467 UP 21.07.17 467 440 430
CIPLA 566 UP 09.06.17 551 535 520
SBIN* 291 DOWN 30.06.17 274 - 295
HINDALCO 215 UP 27.01.17 191 195 190
ICICI BANK 302 UP 21.10.16 277 280 275
INFOSYS 980 DOWN 13.04.17 931 980 1010
ITC 289 DOWN 21.07.17 289 310 320
L&T 1179 UP 13.01.17 959 1130 1110
MARUTI 7543 UP 06.01.17 5616 7000 6800
NTPC 165 DOWN 03.03.17 156 165 168
ONGC 164 DOWN 31.03.17 185 170 175
RELIANCE 1585 UP 23.06.17 1436 1440 1400
TATASTEEL 553 UP 19.05.17 490 510 500
S/l
4
Closing as on 21-07-2017The price of BPCL and L&T has been adjusted according to the bonus issue of 1:2
*SBIN has breached the Resistance of 290
BSE SENSEX GAINERS & LOSERS TOP (% Change) NSE NIFTY GAINERS TOP & LOSERS (% Change)
SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)
SMC Trend
FMCGHealthcare
Auto BankRealty
Cap GoodsCons Durable
Oil & GasPower
ITMetal
Down SidewaysUp
GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)
INDIAN INDICES (% Change)
5
SMC Trend
Nifty Sensex BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap Nifty Junior S&P CNX 500
SMC Trend
FTSE 100CAC 40
NasdaqDow jonesS&P 500
NikkeiStrait times
Hang SengShanghai
-186.93
535.54
375.79375.85
1016.88
163.41
54.19
417.34
-400.00
-200.00
0.00
200.00
400.00
600.00
800.00
1000.00
1200.00
Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday
FII / FPI Activity MF Activity
-0.13
-0.36
-0.05
0.58
0.44
0.01
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
Nifty Sensex BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap
Nifty Next 50
S&P CNX 500
-0.38
-6.58
0.711.11
0.75
1.46
1.02
1.83
0.05
0.55
2.15
-8.00
-7.00
-6.00
-5.00
-4.00
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
Auto Index Bankex Cap Goods Index
Cons Durable Index
FMCG Index Healthcare Index
IT Index Metal Index Oil & Gas Index
Power Index Realty Index
-0.12
1.23
0.58
0.13 0.17
1.33
0.70
1.48
-0.69
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
Nasdaq Comp. Dow Jones S&P 500 Nikkei Strait Times Hang Seng Shanghai Comp.
FTSE 100 CAC 40
5.27 4.82 4.80 4.74 4.35
-14.13
-2.87 -2.80 -2.46 -1.92
-20.00
-15.00
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
Axis Bank Eicher Motors Zee Entertainmen
O N G C Cipla ITC GAIL (India) Bharti Infra. ACC UltraTech Cem.
5.30 4.64 4.433.66 3.49
-14.07
-1.05 -0.87 -0.64 -0.63
-20.00
-15.00
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
Axis Bank O N G C Cipla Wipro Bharti Airtel ITC NTPC Maruti Suzuki
Tata Steel Hero Motocorp
INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Equity) (` Crore)
Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis
Source: Company Website Reuters Capitaline
6
Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.
Investment Rationale •The Company successfully commissioned 16 MW of captive solar farms at a capex of ̀ 82 Crore during •Hindustan Zinc Limited (HZL) is the one of the the Q4FY17, This project will help the Company largest integrated producers of zinc-lead with a partly meet its renewable power obligation and capacity of 1.0 million MT per annum and a has been set up on waste lands.leading producer of silver. It has a world-class
resource base with total reserve & resource of •It has reported a 81% jump in net profit y-o-y to 404.4 million MT and average zinc-lead reserve 1,876 crore in the first quarter of FY18, on strong grade of 8.9%. zinc prices. During the quarter under review, the
company's revenues shot up 79% year-on-year (y-•The Company guides capex on the on-going mine o-y) to 4,961 crore, led by higher zinc & lead expansion projects, fumer and smelter de-prices and higher volume.bottlenecking will be around $350-360 million in
FY 2018. Valuation
•As the mine development is progressing well at Company will maintain operational growth over the 8,828 meters, the Company guides mining next few years as it executes the next phase of projects should complete in FY 2020 when the full growth, which will enhance global market share in capacity of 1.2 million MT of mined metal is zinc, lead and silver. Thus, it is expected that the expected to be in place. Both, the Rampura stock will see a price target of 336 in 8 to 10 months Agucha and Sindesar Khurd shafts are on track for time frame on a one year average P/E of 14.9x and completion in FY 2019. FY18 (E) EPS of 22.52.
•During the quarter ended June 2017, Mined metal production of 233 kilo tonne (KT) was achieved, up 84% y-o-y. Integrated zinc metal production was at 194kt, up 91% y-o-y. Integrated saleable lead metal production during the quarter was at 35kt, up 42% y-o-y. The increase was in line with availability of mined metal, supported by smelter efficiencies.
•Company is focusing on value-added products such as die cast alloys in zinc and value-added products in silver. Management expressed confidence that in the next 3-5 years, all zinc slabs will be rolled into valued-added products.
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P/E Chart
HINDUSTAN ZINC LIMITED CMP: 281.05 Upside: 19%Target Price: 336.00
Face Value (`) 2.00
52 Week High/Low 333.40/187.95
M.Cap ( Cr.) 118752.59
EPS ( ) 19.68
P/E Ratio (times) 14.28
P/B Ratio (times) 3.86
Dividend Yield (%) 10.46
Stock Exchange BSE
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` in cr
% OF SHARE HOLDING
VALUE PARAMETERS
Actual Estimate
FY Mar-17 FY Mar-18 FY Mar-19
Revenue 18,798.00 21,159.80 22,695.90EBITDA 9,738.40 11,850.90 11,898.80EBIT 10,400.90 10,691.70 10,949.50Pre-Tax Profit 10,199.20 12,106.70 13,024.40Net Income 8,315.60 9,566.00 10,220.60EPS 19.68 22.52 23.91BVPS 72.90 85.83 99.28ROE 24.40 28.00 25.80
SUPRAJIT ENGINEERING LIMITED CMP: 291.50 Upside: 20%Target Price: 349.00
Investment Rationale reduce the volatility in its business. ?Suprajit Engineering Limited is the largest ?Next phase of growth for the company is likely to
automotive cable maker with a planned annual be driven by gaining share in global auto and non-cable capacity of 225 million cables. The auto cables (incl inorganic); increase in content Company's customer list includes most Indian supplied for CBS/ABS in domestic 2Ws; focus on automotive majors. It also exports too many aftermarket space (both lamps & cables). The marquee global customers. company is expanding business in North America.
?The company uses its diverse knowledge and Valuationexperience in manufacturing processes to The company is the most preferred manufacturer of leverage the best out of all its manufacturing cables and meets the demand of virtually every major facilities and research centers. OEM in the automotive sector. It would more focus on
?The company has 14 plants; 13 in India and one in cables in the export market for better positioning. the UK, which also operates as a technology Steady demand from specific OEMs and the shoring up centre for control cables for both automotive and of control-cable growth in the auto and non-auto non-automotive clients. markets, exports and replacements would guide the
?t manufactures cables, which caters mostly to the further growth to the company. According to the auto industry, has a production capacity of over management, its profitability would improve in 150 million automotive cables a year, and is the coming years as its capacity expansion and largest domestic manufacturer of automotive integration with the acquired companies is almost cables. To reduce its dependency on two- done. Thus we expect the stock to see a price target wheelers, the company plans to increase its sales of ̀ 349 in 8 to 10 month's time frame on a Current P/E to four-wheelers—currently 33% of its sales mix. of 31.95x and FY18 (E) earnings of 10.91.More domestic orders (from Maruti) and export orders (from BMW, Audi, Volkswagen, etc.) would help the company boost its sales in the four-wheeler segment.
?The Company strives to comply with the highest possible quality standards and practices a philosophy of continuous improvement. It adopts processes that ensure full proof & defect free manufacturing.
?On the development foot and as a diversification tool, it plans to increase its non-automotive cable revenue and the acquisition of Wescon Controls is an effort in this direction. The acquisition will be beneficial to the company due to the operating synergies. However, Suprajit Engineering plans to introduce new agriculture, medical, aviation and marine cables through Wescon and it would
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Face Value (`) 1.00
52 Week High/Low 337.75/173.95
M.Cap ( Cr.) 3828.53
EPS ( ) 8.60
P/E Ratio (times) 33.89
P/B Ratio (times) 7.17
Dividend Yield (%) 0.41
Stock Exchange BSE
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% OF SHARE HOLDING
P/E Chart
` in cr
Actual EstimateFY Mar-17 FY Mar-18 FY Mar-19
Revenue 1,208.40 1,530.90 1,744.00EBITDA 200.90 260.00 305.90EBIT 178.90 235.20 280.30Pre-tax Profit 174.10 219.60 266.80Net Income 113.00 144.40 176.10EPS 8.60 10.91 13.32BVPS 40.65 49.64 60.58ROE 22.90 24.20 24.60
VALUE PARAMETERS
2.08
1.57
0
64.92
31.43
Foreign
Institutions
Non Promoter Corporate Holding
Promoters
Public & Others
9.975.1
11.63
47.37
25.93
Foreign
Institutions
Non Promoter Corporate Holding
Promoters
Public & Others
Charts by Spider Software India Ltd
7
EQUITY
Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.The analyst, not any of its affiliated companies, not any of their members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
SOURCE: CAPITAL LINE
The stock closed at ̀ 1180.55 on 21st July 2017. It made a 52-week low at 844.45
on 21st December 2016 and a 52-week high of 1251.60 on 23rd May 2017. The
200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the daily chart is
currently at 1097.47
After finding support around 840 levels, stock started moving higher and tested
1200 levels in short span of time. Then after, stock is consolidating in narrow
range of 1140-1200 levels from past few weeks and forming “Bull Flag” pattern
on weekly chart and closed on verge of breakout of pattern. So, one can buy in
the range of 1165-1170 levels for the upside target of 1270-1300 levels with SL
below 1120.
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Container Corporation of India Ltd. (CONCOR)
The stock closed at 410.30 on 21st July 2017. It made a 52-week low at 281.75
on 28th February 2017 and a 52-week high of 424.75 on 18th July 2017. The 200
days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the daily chart is
currently at 363.59
Short term, medium term and long term bias is positive for the stock, it was
forming an “Inverted Head and Shoulder” pattern on weekly charts, which is
bullish in nature. It has given the neckline breakout and trading higher. Apart
from this, it is continuously trading above the 200WEMA, which also give the
positive outlook for coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 400-405
levels for the upside target of 4450-460 levels with SL below 375.
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Bharti Infratel Ltd. (INFRATEL)
DERIVATIVES
CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY)
WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET
NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY)
CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QY) (MONTHLY)
Last week markets were seen really volatile and witnessed see saw moves. Market opened the week on a negative note and seen trading under pressure as put
writers were seen unwinding short position along with some profit booking at higher levels. Also we have seen call writers were active at 9900 and 10000 calls. As
per current data, option concentration is in the band of 9800 puts and 10000 calls which indicates that market is likely to trade in range of 9800 to 10000 levels for
current expiry. Another important observation is that, in the falling market we have not seen any major short buildup or unwinding of long nifty futures
positions. As per derivative data we expect market to trade with positive bias. Nifty has immediate support around 9750 levels and we advice to use any dip as
buying opportunity going forward with strong support around 9700 levels. Current trend is likely to remain positive and expected to continue towards 9950-9980
levels. Among Nifty Call options, the 10000-strike call has the highest open interest of more than 69 lakh shares while on put side, 9800-strike put has the highest
open interest of over 67 lakh shares. The PCR OI for the week closed down at 1.37 from 1.65, which indicates more OTM put writing compared to calls and profit
booking in puts. On the technical front, 9800-9840 spot levels is strong support zone for the market going forward.
In lakhs
In 10000 In 10000
TITAN (JUL FUTURE)
Buy: Above `542
Target: `560
Stop loss: `532
SUNPHARMA
BUY JUL 560. PUT 1.40
Lot size: 800BEP: 558.60
Max. Profit: UnlimitedMax. Loss: 1120.00 (1.40*800)
OPTIONSTRATEGY
FUTURE
PFC
BUY JUL 130. CALL 1.50SELL JUL 135. CALL 0.40
Lot size: 6000BEP: 131.10
Max. Profit: 23400.00 (3.90*6000)Max. Loss: 6600.00 (1.10*6000)
DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES
TORNTPOWER (JUL FUTURE)
Sell: Below `179
Target: `171
Stop loss: `183
BULLISH STRATEGY
VOLTAS
BUY JUL 500. CALL 5.00SELL JUL 510. CALL 2.00
Lot size: 2000BEP: 503.00
Max. Profit: 14000.00 (7.00*2000)Max. Loss: 6000.00 (3.00*2000)
TATACOMM (JUL FUTURE)
Sell: Below `651
Target: `624
Stop loss: `666
BEARISH STRATEGY
Call Put
8.8
9
4.3
7
5.0
3 9.3
6
10
.73 17
.35 2
6.6
5
14
.38
51
.81
70
.88
32
.89
25
.15
26
.94
43
.39
46
.49
47
.36 5
5.0
8
64
.97
16
.16
39
.03
13
.76
0.9
2
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
9000 9300 9400 9500 9600 9700 9800 9850 9900 10000 10100
Call Put
-1.2
2
-0.5
3
-0.8
6
-2.9
6
-6.5
4
-4.2
8
-4.5
6
4.5
3 6.7
9
25
.23
15
.92
-3.7
1
-6.0
5
1.4
0
-2.2
6
-15
.23
-5.4
0
5.6
3
5.1
5
-2.8
5
0.6
4
-0.0
9
-20.00
-15.00
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
9000 9300 9400 9500 9600 9700 9800 9850 9900 10000 10100
Call Put
4.2
9
2.0
7 8.4
0
37
.82
4.9
6
54
.47
38
.88
29
.48
29
.68
98
.05
26
.45
30
.64 40
.47
99
.82
61
.10
27
.82
56
.00
26
.99
5.7
2
1.9
3 9.3
5
0.0
9
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
22000 22500 23000 23500 23800 24000 24200 24300 24400 24500 24600
Call Put
-0.9
3
-0.1
6
-2.4
7
-6.2
2
-1.4
2
-4.6
2
25
.62
23
.58
21
.79
21
.85
24
.25
-2.2
2
-12
.13
-54
.23
17
.44
20
.41
39
.77
26
.44
5.5
9
1.8
6
7.1
5
0.0
8
-60.00
-40.00
-20.00
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
22000 22500 23000 23500 23800 24000 24200 24300 24400 24500 24600
8
In lakhs
9
DERIVATIVES
FII’s ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT
SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)
20-Jul 19-Jul 18-Jul 17-Jul 14-Jul
DISCOUNT/PREMIUM 14.75 19.55 19.15 17.20 13.20
COST OF CARRY% 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.82
PCR(OI) 1.37 1.51 1.30 1.69 1.65
PCR(VOL) 1.10 1.30 1.13 1.48 1.35
A/D RATIO(NIFTY 50) 0.19 3.25 1.22 3.64 1.08
A/D RATIO(ALL FO STOCK)* 0.41 5.22 0.52 1.29 0.94
IMPLIED VOLATILITY 10.05 9.82 9.87 10.14 9.57
VIX 11.32 11.26 11.49 11.46 11.46
HISTORY. VOL 9.87 10.09 9.79 9.13 9.29
*All Future Stock
SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)
FII’S ACTIVITY IN NIFTY FUTURE
**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup # Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
#All Future Stock
Top 10 short build upTop long build up
LTP % Price Change Open interest %OI Chng
SREINFRA 132.25 15.45% 5915000 25.72%
INDIANB 331.85 4.49% 4014000 24.43%
BHARATFORG 1137.15 1.15% 4319400 18.91%
JPASSOCIAT 23.10 11.06% 176936000 13.72%
CGPOWER 86.30 2.07% 17448000 12.89%
PCJEWELLER 254.25 1.13% 5439000 11.50%
INFIBEAM 1256.15 10.74% 1726800 9.49%
SINTEX 37.90 15.02% 26896875 9.17%
ENGINERSIN 165.45 5.55% 13531000 6.77%
JUBLFOOD 1302.65 11.32% 2814000 6.35%
LTP % Price Change Open interest %OI Chng
MINDTREE 486.20 -5.94% 4947600 51.69%
ICICIPRULI 462.45 -4.88% 1920100 43.68%
MRPL 119.90 -3.07% 10818000 24.37%
HAVELLS 464.35 -2.78% 5062000 21.39%
NIITTECH 546.75 -2.88% 1134000 19.06%
CHENNPETRO 383.05 -4.69% 1329000 17.82%
RAMCOCEM 676.70 -4.85% 645600 17.13%
DCBBANK 193.85 -4.39% 9873000 16.95%
SHREECEM 17899.40 -4.12% 33000 14.78%
PVR 1388.50 -1.29% 612400 13.91%
In Cr. In Cr.
20-Jul 19-Jul 18-Jul 17-Jul 14-Jul
DISCOUNT/PREMIUM 21.80 55.80 36.15 11.60 39.70
COST OF CARRY% 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.82
PCR(OI) 1.17 1.42 1.45 1.39 1.40
PCR(VOL) 1.25 1.20 1.45 1.29 1.24
A/D RATIO(BANKNIFTY) 0.50 10.00 1.40 0.50 4.50
#A/D RATIO 0.38 5.67 0.83 0.75 4.25
IMPLIED VOLATILITY 11.03 10.96 11.11 11.09 11.92
VIX 11.32 11.26 11.49 11.46 11.46
HISTORY. VOL 10.73 11.00 11.04 11.38 11.64
- 54
4
- 10
00
94
- 12
86
- 62
0
- 31
1
27
9
32
5
20
6
- 54
0
-1400
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
7-Jul 10-Jul 11-Jul 12-Jul 13-Jul 14-Jul 17-Jul 18-Jul 19-Jul 20-Jul
- 11
37
51
20
85
- 11
85
29
56
- 73
9
12
80
- 64
6
89
4
- 82
7
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
7-Jul 10-Jul 11-Jul 12-Jul 13-Jul 14-Jul 17-Jul 18-Jul 19-Jul 20-Jul
10
SPICES
Soybean futures (Aug) is likely to trade sideways in the range of 2800-3200 levels. Soybean price in most of the market yards of the country are bearish amid low buying by the crushers on lower sales of the end products. Some plants have stopped the operations for annual maintenance which will last for 30 - 45 days. Secondly, the market participants are cautiously watching the sowing progress. The sowing period for soybean has almost come to an end, and farmers are likely to wrap up the activity soon. Some districts of Maharashtra such as Amravati, Akola, Parbhani and Dewas in Madhya Pradesh condition of soybean crop is below average and in rest of the areas it is average. Mustard futures (Aug) may take an attempt to break the resistance near 3715 levels & gain further towards 3800 levels. Spot mustard seed is gaining at the key Jaipur market of Rajasthan amid fresh demand. According to market sources, there are good enquiries from crushers for bulk purchases. Crushers are optimistic of rising sales of mustard oil by 25th July which has triggered the fresh buying spree in the market. Ref. soy oil futures (Aug) is expected to consolidate in the range of 635-650 levels. Spot refined soy oil at the benchmark Indore market trading flat at Rs.635/10kg amid limited demand. Further, wholesale traders also have sufficient stock in their inventory which can meet the near term demand, so they have opted to stay away from the market activity. According to traders this year, monsoon demand of soy oil was not up to the mark due to weak progress of monsoon from June to first half of July.
OIL AND OILSEEDS
OTHER COMMODITIES
Kapas futures (April) will possibly continue to face resistance near 870-875 levels & the upside may remain capped owing to estimates of higher crop this season. The Cotton Association of India has increased its estimate for India's cotton output in the year ending September to 33.7 million bales (1 bale = 170 kg). Also, has increased its forecast for cotton import by 8% to 2.7 million bales, while estimates for mill consumption were left unchanged at 27.0 million bales. Mentha oil futures (July) may continue to post gains for the fourth consecutive week as it can test 1030 levels. In the major markets across Uttar Pradesh, mentha oil is extending upside supported by to good demand amid lower supply and thin carryover stocks. Cotton oil seed cake futures (Aug) may continue to trade with a downside bias & witness sell on rise as it may face resistance near 1650 levels. At the spot markets, the sentiments are bearish as most of the sellers are quoting price of cotton oil cake including 5% GST and buyers are not interested to purchase the commodity. Business activities are very less as there is no clarity on GST of cotton oil cake among the market participant. Some buyers have increased the procurement of other feed substitutes such as bajara churi, tur churi and chana churi which are trading in the range of Rs 1,200-1,500/100kg. Further the availability of green grass is also increasing so in coming days demand of cotton oil cake may decline. Chana futures (Sept) may consolidate in the range of 5000-5450 levels & the upside may remain capped due to lower demand & sufficient supplies.
Bullion counter can trade on a volatile path as FOMC following meeting on
Wednesday coupled with safe haven demand and movement of greenback will
give further direction to the prices. Local currency rupee can move in range
of 64-65. Gold can face resistance near $1270 in COMEX and 29000 in MCX
while it has support near $1200 in COMEX and $27400 in MCX. Silver has key
support near 36000 in MCX and $15.50 in COMEX. And it has resistance near
39500 in MCX and $17.50 in COMEX. Last week, ECB president Draghi stated
that the policymakers were unanimous in choosing not to change their
guidance for monetary policy, and not to set a date for discussing changes to
its stimulus program and ECB will defer the decision on QE tapering until the
autumn. Republicans failed to resolve differences on healthcare legislation,
fuelling doubts that President Donald Trump can deliver promised economic
stimulus that can boost demand of gold as safe haven. Holdings of the world's
largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Shares, fell to the lowest
level since early February. Premium on gold has disappeared since the beginning
of July month even as banks and nominated agencies are importing the precious
metal in limited quantities, indicating that jewellers have unsold gold with them
and demand has slowed since the GST regime was rolled out on July 1.
BULLIONS
Crude oil prices may continue to trade on volatile path as outcome of OPEC
and non OPEC members on 24th July and inventory data can give further
direction to the prices. The group of oil ministers is tasked with monitoring
implementation of the agreement that began Jan. 1 between 13 OPEC
members and 11 non-OPEC producers to cut output by about 1.8 million
barrels a day, in an effort to bring global supplies back to their five-year
average. Overall crude oil can trade in range of 2900-3200 in MCX. The
market has been watching reports that Saudi Arabia, the world's largest
crude producer, is considering an additional supply cut to reduce the global
glut. According to the Energy Information Administration, “U.S. crude
inventories dropped by 4.7 million barrels in the week to July 14”. Natural
gas may trade on volatile path in range of 180-215 in MCX. U.S. demand for
natural gas is expected to be high to very high for the week ahead, with the
weather forecasts pointing to hot weather in most parts of the United States.
EIA expects inventories to be 3,940 Bcf at the end of October 2017, which
would be 2 percent higher than the five-year average level for the end of
October, but 2 percent lower than the 2016 end-of-October level. As far as
natural gas prices are concerned, EIA stated that “closer-to-normal winter
temperatures are expected this winter following last year's warm winter,
which contributes to growth in residential and commercial consumption.
ENERGY COMPLEX
Base metals may trade sideways with positive path as outcome of US PMI and GDP data are likely to give further direction to the prices. Fitch Ratings stated that China's renewed commitment to contain financial risks signals a possible shift away from high economic growth targets. Copper may trade in range of 380-400 in MCX. The global world refined copper market showed a 53,000 tonnes deficit in April, compared with an 18,000 tonnes deficit in March, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). Unionised workers in Peru, the world's second-biggest copper producer, began a nationwide strike to protest against labour reforms .Lead can trade in range of 138-150. Zinc can move in range of 170-184. Zinc prices are running out of steam, with shortages in China appearing to be less severe than expected, inventories rebounding and producers selling the metal to take advantage of current market levels. Nickel can move in range of 590-635 in MCX. Nickel prices got boost from the increasing steel production in China which rose 5.7 percent in June to a record 73.23 million tonnes as mills in the world's top producer ramp up production due to fat profits from rallying prices .Recently China's iron ore futures hit their highest in 2-1/2 months as speculators added bullish bets and shorts continued to cover their positions on expectations of strong demand from steel mills. Aluminum prices may trade in range of 120-126 in MCX. According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), “Daily average primary aluminium output excluding China rose to 70,300 tonnes in June, from 70,000 tonnes in May”.
Turmeric futures (Aug) is likely to trade sideways to down in the range of 6900-7630 levels. Spot turmeric prices are steady in the spot markets of Nizamabad, Duggirala and Basmatnagar, but quoting lower in Warangal and Erode market as demand in turmeric is said to be subdued at higher prices. However, sellers in the other markets are refraining to sell in aggressive manner as they are bullish about the commodity amid prospects of fall in acreage this season. Turmeric acreage is expected to fall this season due to the lower prices earlier this season, though prices have now turned attractive after over 40% rise since June last month. Cardamom futures (Aug) is looking bullish & can test 1210 levels. There are fears of crop fall this season due to the erratic weather conditions prevailing in this aromatic spice growing regions of Kerala. The changes in the climatic conditions so far has negatively affected the flowering and fruit setting process in the plants. Apprehending a fall in output, the buyers are actively covering now whatever material is arriving in the spot markets. However, the supply trend would be known from next week when the picking enters the second round. Jeera futures (Aug) may witness consolidation in the range of 19200-20200 levels. Business activity in Unjha market is said to be good, but buyers are doing bargain at the higher rates after looking at the rise during last couple of days. On the export front, Turkey is offering cumin at $2,900 per tonne, which is $100 less than the Indian price, though the quantity on offer is much lower than that offered by India, which continues to be a major cumin supplier to the world market.
BASE METALS
11
TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS
COMMODITY
LEAD MCX (JULY) contract closed at ̀ 141.35 on 20th July'17. The contract made its high of 151.60 on
03rd July'17 and a low of 132.45 on 13th May'17. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the
commodity is currently at 144.83.
On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 61. One can buy in the
range of 141 - 140 with the stop loss of 138 for a target of 145.
`
`
`
` ` `
NICKEL MCX (JULY) contract closed at 610.40 on 20th July'17. The contract made its high of 656.90 on
11th Apr'17 and a low of 564.60 on 13st June'17. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the
commodity is currently at 603.14.
On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 54. One can buy in the
range of 608 - 600 with the stop loss of 585 for a target of 635.
` `
`
`
` ` `
SILVER MCX (SEPTEMBER) contract closed at 37881 on 20th July'17. The contract made its high of
43386 on 07th April'17 and a low of 35460 on 10th July'17. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of
the commodity is currently at 37711.
On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 36. One can buy in the
range of 37700 – 37600 with the stop loss of 37400 for a target of 38300.
`
` `
`
` ` `
LEAD MCX (JULY)
NICKEL MCX (JULY)
SILVER MCX (SEPTEMBER)
NOTES : 1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of Daily report- commodities (Morning Mantra).
2) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the commodity. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.
EXCHANGE COMMODITY CONTRACT CLOSING DATE TREND TREND RATE TREND SUPPORT RESISTANCE CLOSING
PRICE CHANGED CHANGED STOP/LOSS
NCDEX SOYABEAN AUG 3021.00 06.07.17 UP 3023.00 2900.00 - 2850.00
NCDEX JEERA AUG 19620.00 13.07.17 UP 19835.00 19000.00 - 18500.00
NCDEX REF.SOY OIL AUG 644.15 15.06.17 Sideways
NCDEX RM SEEDS AUG 3692.00 06.07.17 UP 3665.00 3550.00 - 3500.00
NMCE PEPPER MINI AUG 50730.00 11.05.17 Down 55957.00 - 52000.00 54000.00
NMCE RUBBER AUG 14224.00 13.07.17 Sideways
MCX MENTHA OIL AUG 980.00 20.07.17 UP 980.00 940.00 - 910.00
MCX CARDAMOM AUG 1061.70 06.07.17 Sideways
MCX SILVER SEP 37881.00 04.05.17 Down 38052.00 - 38000.00 38500.00
MCX GOLD AUG 28331.00 04.05.17 Down 28072.00 - 28600.00 28900.00
MCX COPPER AUG 387.25 29.06.17 UP 388.25 372.00 - 365.00
MCX LEAD JULY 141.25 20.07.17 UP 141.25 140.50 - 138.00
MCX ZINC JULY 175.35 23.06.17 UP 174.50 172.00 169.00
MCX NICKEL JULY 610.40 30.03.17 Down 653.00 - 620.00 630.00
MCX ALUMINIUM JULY 122.30 12.04.17 Sideways
MCX CRUDE OIL JULY 3037.00 20.07.17 Sideways
MCX NATURAL GAS JULY 196.70 01.06.17 Down 194.30 - 202.00 205.00
TREND SHEET
*Closing as on 20.07.17
COMMODITY
NEWS DIGEST
Finally, the CRB index regained some strength owing to fresh buying in bullion, energy and
oilseeds counter. Dollar index hit ten month low, also stimulated buying in commodities. Gold
prices edged up as the U.S. dollar fell to multi-month lows after the prospect for further
interest rate hikes in the United States this year dimmed following the softer U.S. economic
data last week. Silver prices augmented too. Gold and silver closed near 28300 and 37850
respectively. Crude showed some power play. After the worst June for oil in six years, hedge-
fund bets on declining WTI retreated. That made room for futures to rebound last week on
optimism that the summer will finally boost demand for crude and gasoline. Natural gas prices
went above 200 but couldn't stay at higher side on profitbooking. While the doubts persist that
OPEC and its allies will manage to bring the oil market back to balance anytime soon. On the
other hand, as per the International Energy Agency, world demand is climbing faster than
initially estimated. In base metals counter, only copper closed in green territory. London
copper hit its highest since early March, supported by a weaker dollar and as an upbeat second
quarter for China's economy brightened demand prospects for metals. Stronger than expected
Chinese industrial production data increased confidence that global demand would
strengthen. Nickel moved high but couldn't stay at higher levels.
Agri commodities danced on the progress of monsoon and the update on acreage area. Chana
prices were down as participants trimmed their positions, driven by subdued demand in the
spot market against adequate stocks. Mentha prices strengthened on fresh buying though
upside was limited on higher supplies from producing regions. International soyabean at CBOT
closely following the U.S. weather forecast. Oil seeds and edible oil counter traded firm on
strong trend in international market. The wheat market has pulled up commodity prices with
hot and dry conditions in the spring growing areas of the U.S. and Canada. Even with winter
wheat harvest efforts in the U.S. going well, the narrative has been completely focused on the
struggling spring wheat crop. Even in NCDEX, wheat prices closed up despite huge inventory.
WEEKLY COMMENTARY
COMMODITY UNIT 20.07.17 DIFFERENCEQTY. QTY.
CASTOR SEED MT 50955.00 40296.00 -10659.00
CORIANDER NEW MT 22542.00 22188.00 -354.00
COTTON SEED O.C MT 16802.00 18561.00 1759.00
GUARGUM MT 15435.00 15575.00 140.00
GUARSEED MT 11715.00 11921.00 206.00
JEERA NEW MT 1265.00 1861.00 596.00
MAIZE MT 4066.00 4742.00 676.00
RM SEED MT 29779.00 29070.00 -709.00
SOYBEAN MT 37284.00 31852.00 -5432.00
TURMERIC MT 5440.00 5211.00 -229.00
WHEAT MT 10690.00 10839.00 149.00
13.07.17 COMMODITY UNIT 20.07.17 DIFFERENCE
QTY. QTY.
CARDAMOM MT 1.00 1.00 0.00
COTTON BALES 34600.00 29200.00 -5400.00
GOLD KGS 20.00 20.00 0.00
GOLD MINI KGS 79.00 79.00 0.00
GOLD GUINEA KGS 4.22 4.20 -0.02
MENTHA OIL KGS 1310267.15 1567342.96 257075.81
SILVER (30 KG Bar) KGS 2873.19 2873.19 0.00
13.07.17
•BHP Billiton stated its annual copper production of 1.3 million tonnes fell short of its target due to a strike at its giant Escondida mine.
•US housing starts jumped 8.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.22 million units, the highest level since February.
•China's economy expanded faster-than-expected in the second quarter, setting the country on course to comfortably meet its 2017 growth target.
•US initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 233,000 for the week ended July 15.
•The Cotton Association of India has increased its estimate for India's cotton output in the year ending September to 33.7 million bales (1 bale = 170 kg), the association said in its June report.
•Andhra Pradesh State Co-operative Marketing Federation, also known as AP Markfed, will auction 48,500 tons turmeric in Aug-Nov through the NCDEX e-Markets Ltd's trading platform.
•MCX announced that it has joined hands with Thomson Reuters to launch co-branded commodity indices in India.
•NCDEX received an overwhelming response from value-chain participants on the first day of the re-launch of chana (pulses) contracts on 14th July, 2017. The contracts registered a turnover of Rs 91 crore with trading volume of 17,380 tons. On Friday, its open Interest stood at 6,990 tons.
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)
12
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)
NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change) MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)
4.62%4.26%
2.29%2.02%
1.60%
- 4.62%
- 2.20%
- 0.65%- 0.39%
- 0.13%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
CARDAMOM SILVERMICNATURAL
GASMENTHA
OIL COTTONLEAD MINI
ZINC MINI
ALUMINIUM MINI
NICKEL MINI CPO
1.60%
1.07%
0.87% 0.87%0.73%
-2.28%
-2.02%
-1.76% -1.73% -1.71%
-3%
-2%
-2%
-1%
-1%
0%
1%
1%
2%
2%
COPPERGOLD
HEDGE SOYAMEAL SOYABEANMAIZE
KHARIF CORIANDER JEERACASTOR
SEEDMAIZE RABI
GUARGUM 5MT
COMMODITY
COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT 14 20.07.17 CHANGE%
ALUMINIUM LME 3 MONTHS 1904.00 1898.00 -67.60
COPPER LME 3 MONTHS 5858.00 5930.00 1.23
LEAD LME 3 MONTHS 2264.00 2200.00 -2.83
NICKEL LME 3 MONTHS 9380.00 9540.00 1.71
ZINC LME 3 MONTHS 2769.00 2737.00 -1.16
GOLD COMEX AUG 1227.50 1245.50 1.47
SILVER COMEX SEPT 15.93 16.35 2.64
LIGHT CRUDE OIL NYMEX SEPT 46.54 46.92 0.82
NATURAL GAS NYMEX AUG 2.98 3.04 2.01
.07.17
PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)
COMMODITY STOCK POSITION STOCK POSITION DIFFERENCE
13.07.17 20.07.17
ALUMINIUM 1392625 1369125 -23500
COPPER 318550 309250 -9300
NICKEL 376476 375384 -1092
LEAD 158625 156725 -1900
ZINC 273675 271200 -2475
INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES
COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT UNIT 14.07.17 20.07.17 CHANGE(%)
Soybean CBOT NOV Cent per Bushel 992.75 1027.00 3.45
Soy oil CBOT DEC Cent per Pound 33.46 34.45 2.96
CPO BMD OCT MYR per MT 2568.00 2576.00 0.31
Sugar LIFFE OCT 10 cents per MT 418.00 395.50 -5.38
13
SPOT PRICES (% change) Kharif Crop Sowing on fast track
Due to better monsoon rains so far in the current monsoon season, the total sown
area as on 14th July 2017, as per reports received from States, stands at 563.17
lakh hectare as compared to 521.80 lakh hectare at this time last year. Areas
sown of key crops except oilseeds have been higher than the level at the same
time last year, with the overall sowing 8% higher. Kharif sowing will continue for
another 30-35 days.
As per reports, it is reported that rice has been sown/transplanted in 125.77 lakh
hac, compared with 120.32 lakh hectares last year.
Coarse cereals area was estimated higher at 113.06 lakh hectares compared
with 98.79 lakh hectares last year.
The better news come again on pulses acreage as it has turned sharply up at
74.61 lakh hectares from 60.28 lakh hectares in 2016-17. Contrary to
expectations, the cropping area under pulses might shrink this year following a
sharp fall in prices, the area sown is surprisingly higher.
Oilseed acreage have turned negative by 10.22 percent at 103.92 lakh hectares
against 115.75 lakh hectares, whereas cotton has been sown in 90.88 lakh
hectares, Up 23 percent from 73.93 lakh hectares a year ago. The decline in
sowing of oilseeds — 10% less than in the year-ago period — is because farmers in
states like Madhya Pradesh have shifted to pulses given the low price realization
in the last season for soybean and groundnut.
The details of the area covered so far and that covered during this time last year
are given below (in Lakh hectare):
Crop Area sown in 2017-18 Area sown in 2016-17
Rice 125.77 120.32
Pulses 74.61 60.28
Coarse Cereals 113.06 98.79
Oilseeds 103.92 115.75
Sugarcane 47.94 45.22
Jute & Mesta 6.98 7.51
Cotton 90.88 73.93
Total 563.17 521.80
As per the Third Advance Estimates, food grain production in the country has
increased to 273 MT in 2016-17, oil seeds to 32.5 MT, and sugarcane to 306 MT. As
the IMD expected to be normal monsoon this year, the government is targeting
yet another bumper food grain and horticulture production in the new crop year
2017-18. The trend of fast sowing so far indicates to a better kharif crop this
year, although the output would also depend on how rains perform in the rest of
the season till September. Better production of pulses and oilseed will ease the
pressure form government to import the commodities to curb the inflation. It
will also boost the Indian economy. However, bumper production has resulted in
fall in prices in the local markets, causing distress to farmers and they are
unable to get remunerative price of their product.
-2.04
-1.98
-1.79
-1.56
-0.66
-0.58
-0.57
-0.10
0.05
0.09
0.49
0.60
0.91
1.32
1.37
4.02
-3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00
CORIANDER (KOTA)
PEPPER MALABAR GAR (KOCHI)
CRUDE PALM OIL (KANDLA)
RAW JUTE (KOLKATA)
COTTON SEED OIL CAKE (AKOLA)
BARLEY (JAIPUR)
SOYABEAN (INDORE)
JEERA (UNJHA)
WHEAT (DELHI)
GUR (MUZAFFARNGR.)
SUGAR (KOLKATA)
GUAR GUM (JODHPUR)
COTTON (KADI)
MUSTARD (JAIPUR)
GUAR SEED (JODHPUR)
TURMERIC (NIZAMABAD)
Source : MOA, GOI
CURRENCY
Currency Table
Currency Pair Open High Low Close
USD/INR 64.41 64.51 64.36 64.47
EUR/INR 73.89 75.20 73.78 74.21
GBP/INR 84.41 84.54 83.47 83.50
JPY/INR 57.22 57.51 57.22 57.42
News Flows of last week
18th July U.S. Import prices dip 0.2% in June
19th July U.S. Housing Starts jumped 8.3% in June
20th July BoJ Keeps Stimulus unchanged; cut Inflation forecast
20th July ECB Holds interest rates & QE, guidance Unchanged
20th July U.S. Weekly Jobless claims dropped to two-month low
20th July Euro zone Consumer confidence unexpectedly falls in July
EUR/INR (JULY) contract closed at 74.21 on 20th July'17. The contract made its high of 75.20 on 19th July'17 and a low of 73.78 on 17th July'17 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 73.85.
On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 62.57.One can buy around 74.60 for a target of 75.60 with the stop loss of 74.10.
(* NSE Currency future, Source: Spider, Open: Monday 9.00 AM IST, Close: Thursday (5.00 PM IST)
Market Stance
Tailing its previous week gains, Indian rupee once again surged high against
the American dollar to end the week on positive note. Consistent gains in local
equities along with steady selling of dollar by banks and exporters largely
supported the local unit. Moreover weak dollar overseas also added the
positive sentiment in the week gone by. On the global front, the dollar traded
near its multi- month lows against a currency basket in the wake of a steep
sell-off sparked by fears that US President Donald Trump is having difficulties
implementing his policy agenda. The euro pulled back from its highest level
since May 2016 as against the US dollar as investors look to hints from the
European Central Bank on tapering of its stimulus, while the yen braced for
news from the Bank of Japan's policy meeting. Draghi said that no exact date
had been set for discussing any changes to the ECB's ultra-easy monetary
programme but did say policymakers would revisit the topic in the autumn.
EUR/INR
USD/INR (JULY) contract closed at 64.47 on 20th July'17. The contract made its high of 64.51 on 20th July'17 and a low of 64.36 on 13th July'17 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 64.58.
On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 44.02. One can sell around 64.50 for the target of 64.00 with the stop loss of 64.75.
GBP/INR (JULY) contract closed at 83.50 on 20thJuly'17. The contract made its high of 84.54 on 18th July'17 and a low of 83.47 on 20thJuly'17 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 83.62.
On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 50.93. One can buy above 84.00 for a target of 85.00 with the stop loss of 83.50.
JPY/INR (JULY) contract closed at 57.42 on 20th July'17. The contract made its high of 57.51 on 18th July'17 and a low of 57.22 on 17thJuly'17 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 57.36.
On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 47.57. One can buy above 57.75 for a target of 58.60 with the stop loss of 57.35.
USD/INRTechnical Recommendation
Economic gauge for the next week
Date Currency Event Previous
24th July USD Markit PMI Composite 53.925th July USD Housing Price Index (MoM) 0.726th July GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) 0.226th July GBP Inflation Report Hearings -26th July USD New Home Sales (MoM) 0.6126th July USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 1.2527th July USD Initial Jobless Claims 23327th July USD Continuing Jobless Claims 1.97727th July USD Durable Goods Orders -1.127th July USD Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation 0.128th July EUR Industrial Confidence 4.528th July USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index 1.928th July USD Gross Domestic Product Annualized 1.428th July USD Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) 2.4
GBP/INR JPY/INR
14
IPO
IPO NEWS
*Closing price as on 20-07-2017
Company Sector M.Cap(In Rs Cr.) Issue Size (in Rs Cr.) List Date Issue Price List Price Last Price %Gain/Loss(from Issue price)
AU Small Financ Finance 16758.01 1912.00 10-Jul-17 358.00 525.00 582.60 62.74
GTPL Hathway Ltd Entertainment 1883.76 484.00 4-Jul-17 170.00 170.00 166.60 -2.00
CDSL Services 3904.12 524.00 30-Jun-17 149.00 250.00 373.60 150.74
ERIS Lifesciences Health Care 8896.25 1741.00 29-Jun-17 603.00 612.00 649.55 7.72
*
IPO TRACKER
15
16
FIXED DEPOSIT MONITOR
* Interest Rate may be revised by company from time to time. Please confirm Interest rates before submitting the application.
* For Application of Rs.50 Lac & above, Contact to Head Office.
* Email us at [email protected]
FIXED DEPOSIT COMPANIES
(FOR TRUST ONLY) (FOR WOMEN ONLY)
HDFC PREMIUM DEPOSIT FOR TRUST & INSTITUTION
(UPTO RS. 5 CR.)
0.25% FOR SENIOR CITIZEN IF APP ABOVE
RS. 50,000/- & 0.10% IF APP UPTO RS.50,000/-
20000/- BUT
40000/-
IN MONTHLY
0.50% ADD. INTEREST TO SR. CITIZEN, EMPLOYEES,SHAREHOLDERS AND PERSON INVESTING RS.5 LACSAND ABOVE - MAX. 0.50%
0.50% ADD. INTEREST TO SR. CITIZEN, EMPLOYEES,SHAREHOLDERS AND PERSON INVESTING RS.5 LACSAND ABOVE - MAX. 0.50%
INDUSTRY & FUND UPDATE
UTI Mutual Fund submits draft for SID to SEBI to launch UTI Equity Savings Fund-Series 1
UTI Mutual Fund has submitted draft for scheme information document (SID) to the Securities and Exchange Board of India to launch UTI Equity Savings Fund-
Series 1. The fund proposes to launch six series under the equity savings fund and the schemes will deploy 65-90% of its assets in equity securities and derivatives.
Benchmark index of the fund would be as 40% Crisil Liquid Fund Index, 30% Crisil Short Term Bond Fund Index and 30% Nifty 50, and Kausik Basu will be the fund
manager of the scheme.
UTI Mutual Fund is ready for the initial public offering
According to the Managing Director of UTI AMC, the company is ready for the initial public offering and board's approval is already in place and majority of the
shareholders of the company have also supported the plan to go public.
Two foreign funds have picked up 4.5% stake in the Reliance AMC
Reliance Capital Limited (RCL) has sold 4.43% of the total issued subscribed and paid-up equity share capital of Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Limited
to Nippon Life Insurance (NLI) Company. Consequently, RCL's holding now stands at 46.57% & NLI's holding at 49% of the total issued subscribed and paidup equity
share capital of Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Limited.
Kotak Mutual Fund changes face value of units and creation unit size of Kotak Nifty ETF
Kotak Mutual Fund has changed the face value of units, and according to the revision the face value of each unit offered under the scheme will be Re. 1. Under
revision of creation unit size of Kotak Nifty 50, each creation unit comprises 50,000 units of Kotak Nifty ETF, and each unit of Kotak Nifty ETF will be 1/100th of
Nifty 50 index. The changes will be effective from Jul 28, 2017
SBI MF revises the minimum redemption provision of SBI Savings Fund
SBI Mutual Fund has decided to revise the minimum redemption provision of SBI Savings Fund. Accordingly, revised minimum redemption provision will be Rs. 500
or 50 units instead of Rs. 1000 or 100 units as earlier.
MUTUAL FUND
Scheme Name ICICI Prudential Value Fund - Series 16 - Regular Plan (G)
Fund Type Close-Ended
Fund Class Growth
Opens on 24-Jul-2017
Closes on 07-Aug-2017
Investment Objective To provide capital appreciation by investing in a well diversified portfolio of stocks through fundamental analysis.
Min. Investment Rs. 5000
Fund Manager S Krishnakumar / Dwijendra Srivastava
Scheme Name Sundaram Long Term Micro Cap Tax Advantage Fund - Sr. - VI - Reg. (G)
Fund Type Close-Ended
Fund Class Growth
Opens on 23-Jun-2017
Closes on 22-Sep-2017
Investment Objective To generate capital appreciation over a period of ten years by predominantly investing in equity and equity-related instruments
of companies that can be termed as micro-cap.
Min. Investment Rs. 5000
Fund Manager S Krishnakumar / Dwijendra Srivastava
NEW FUND OFFER
Scheme Name UTI Nifty Next 50 Exchange Traded Fund
Fund Type Open-Ended
Fund Class Dividend
Opens on 18-Jul-2017
Closes on 28-Jul-2017
Investment Objective To provide returns that, before expenses, closely correspond to the total returns of the securities as represented by the
underlying index, subject to tracking error.
Min. Investment Rs. 5000
Fund Manager Kaushik Basu
17
Note: Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option. The above mentioned data is on the basis of 20/07/2017Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 7%
MUTUAL FUND Performance Charts
Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)
Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Beta Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &
(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER
Motilal Oswal MOSt Focused Long Term F - Reg - G 16.50 21-Jan-2015 466.89 6.96 25.69 35.64 N.A 22.23 1.97 0.81 0.21 56.55 39.23 N.A 4.22
Mirae Asset Tax Saver Fund - Reg - G 15.12 28-Dec-2015 389.03 10.09 26.15 35.02 N.A 30.33 1.97 0.92 0.23 59.37 34.48 4.33 1.82
Principal Tax Savings Fund 196.01 31-Mar-1996 327.64 8.79 25.50 30.79 16.67 17.22 2.24 1.03 0.16 48.98 41.86 4.07 5.10
IDFC Tax Advantage (ELSS) Fund - Reg - G 51.55 26-Dec-2008 600.93 8.87 26.43 28.40 17.77 21.09 1.93 0.83 0.07 50.60 32.75 10.71 5.95
HSBC Tax Saver Equity Fund - Growth 36.27 05-Jan-2007 184.91 7.66 24.97 27.62 15.85 13.00 2.11 0.99 0.12 51.40 30.68 13.03 4.89
L&T Tax Advantage Fund - Reg - G 51.79 27-Feb-2006 2222.37 7.48 23.28 26.53 17.68 15.52 1.90 0.87 0.12 49.29 38.74 2.80 9.17
HDFC Long Term Advantage Fund - G 320.55 02-Jan-2001 1418.23 8.02 20.30 25.83 14.11 23.30 1.97 0.93 0.14 60.46 23.74 8.77 7.03
TAX Fund Due to their inherent long term nature, the following 3 categories have been sorted on the basis of 1 year returns
Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)
Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Beta Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &
(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER
L&T Emerging Businesses Fund - Reg - G 24.64 12-May-2014 955.83 11.50 34.23 47.32 26.79 32.65 2.17 0.79 0.35 N.A 53.82 31.90 14.29
DSP BlackRock Natu. Reso. & New Energy F - Reg - G 31.80 25-Apr-2008 219.03 3.76 15.58 44.94 22.34 13.34 2.45 0.91 0.36 84.96 8.19 0.88 5.97
L&T Midcap Fund - Reg - Growth 134.74 09-Aug-2004 901.44 10.06 29.14 41.02 26.62 22.24 1.99 0.73 0.25 21.44 51.45 11.05 16.05
Reliance Small Cap Fund - Growth 39.22 16-Sep-2010 3753.78 6.60 26.66 40.39 26.65 22.09 2.44 0.87 0.28 3.27 38.93 46.89 10.91
IDFC Sterling Equity Fund - Reg - G 50.13 07-Mar-2008 1417.48 7.88 31.09 36.11 20.10 18.76 2.17 0.84 0.15 19.59 59.45 16.68 4.29
Mirae Asset Emerging Bluechip F - G 47.00 09-Jul-2010 3821.28 7.50 26.27 35.60 28.53 24.60 2.01 0.86 0.26 31.35 61.10 6.07 1.47
Birla Sun Life Small & Midcap Fund - G 38.33 31-May-2007 776.16 4.74 27.48 34.23 25.11 14.16 2.22 0.86 0.26 N.A 59.01 23.12 17.87
EQUITY (Diversified) Due to their inherent long term nature, the following 3 categories have been sorted on the basis of 1 year returns
Annualised
Returns (%) RiskAverage Yield till
Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM Since Std. SharpeMaturity (Years) Maturity
1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.
UTI Dynamic Bond Fund - Reg - Growth 19.87 23-Jun-2010 1529.43 11.55 20.81 4.35 8.56 13.20 11.29 10.18 0.53 0.15 9.42 7.62
ICICI Prudential LTP - Growth 21.32 20-Jan-2010 2206.23 11.97 18.96 3.61 8.83 13.13 12.57 10.62 0.61 0.17 11.96 7.44
DHFL Pramerica Dynamic Bond Fund - G 1637.06 12-Jan-2012 181.39 13.23 23.83 6.17 9.10 12.76 11.74 9.33 0.55 0.12 15.05 7.11
Canara Robeco Dynamic Bond F - Reg - G 19.57 29-May-2009 260.55 10.41 19.75 3.87 7.59 12.67 11.23 8.59 0.54 0.13 9.49 6.94
UTI Bond Fund - Growth 51.72 04-May-1998 1843.24 11.74 20.47 4.49 7.92 12.47 11.16 8.92 0.53 0.13 9.56 7.61
ICICI Prudential Dynamic Bond F - Prem Plus - G 20.34 14-Jan-2010 1322.69 13.36 19.08 7.21 9.47 12.31 12.50 9.90 0.45 0.22 7.21 7.54
SBI Dynamic Bond Fund - Growth 21.39 09-Feb-2004 3049.92 11.38 18.57 2.01 8.84 12.26 11.35 5.82 0.47 0.17 13.39 6.85
INCOME FUND
Returns (%) Risk Average Yield tillScheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM Since Std. Sharpe Maturity (Years) Maturity
1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.
Franklin India STIP - Growth 3499.91 31-Jan-2002 8139.39 15.21 15.71 12.26 9.95 10.82 9.71 8.43 0.25 0.11 2.21 10.28
L&T Short Term Income Fund - Reg - G 17.91 04-Dec-2010 724.36 10.50 11.51 9.83 8.90 10.07 9.66 9.18 0.13 0.35 1.68 8.37
Birla Sun Life Medium Term Plan - Reg - G 21.19 25-Mar-2009 10362.50 12.90 13.97 9.57 8.40 9.95 10.36 9.44 0.26 0.20 3.71 8.83
Baroda Pioneer Short Term Bond Fund - G 17.68 30-Jun-2010 478.70 8.65 9.87 7.69 8.33 9.31 9.18 8.41 0.10 0.33 1.35 8.13
DHFL Pramerica Short Maturity Fund - G 30.68 21-Jan-2003 1564.38 14.01 13.92 9.03 8.21 9.41 9.38 8.04 0.16 0.22 2.90 8.17
ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt F - Reg - G 19.40 01-Jan-2010 7365.75 15.77 18.43 8.21 7.65 10.48 10.26 9.17 0.34 0.18 N.A 7.73
HDFC Regular Savings Fund - Growth 33.25 28-Feb-2002 4737.67 10.61 11.62 8.25 7.44 9.08 9.83 8.11 0.13 0.29 1.75 8.27
SHORT TERM FUND Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns
Annualised
Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)
Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &
(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER
Principal Balanced Fund - Growth 69.00 14-Jan-2000 167.68 8.54 19.34 25.98 15.09 11.65 1.59 0.14 31.03 25.61 8.43 34.92
HDFC Prudence Fund - Growth 490.97 01-Feb-1994 23343.90 6.26 15.74 22.94 13.21 19.36 1.91 0.10 52.96 14.15 6.69 26.20
HDFC Balanced Fund - Growth 142.29 11-Sep-2000 11349.40 7.57 16.73 21.60 16.04 17.05 1.48 0.12 42.93 22.48 1.21 33.38
ICICI Prudential Balanced - Growth 121.86 03-Nov-1999 11734.40 6.75 13.31 21.59 15.78 15.15 1.49 0.10 51.78 12.44 0.99 34.79
Reliance RSF - Balanced - Growth 51.99 08-Jun-2005 5955.74 8.24 18.60 20.61 14.84 14.56 1.54 0.09 56.78 10.63 1.31 31.28
L&T India Prudence Fund - Reg - G 25.14 07-Feb-2011 4428.18 6.15 17.50 19.94 16.75 15.36 1.39 0.09 44.36 20.46 3.79 31.38
Mirae Asset Prudence Fund - Reg - G 12.88 29-Jul-2015 526.09 6.73 16.10 19.64 N.A 13.64 1.52 0.09 63.31 8.72 1.67 26.30
BALANCED
18
Mr. Mahesh C Gupta (Vice CMD, SMC Group) being invited as Chief Guest during the inauguration of Karol Bagh branch of
AU Small Finance Bank.
Mr. Ajay Garg (Director, SMC Global Securities Ltd.) addressing the audience during Investor Awareness Program organized in association
with Reliance Nippon Asset Management Company held at Hotel India Awadh, Lucknow on 8th July 2017.
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