May 14, 2014 - web.angelbackoffice.comweb.angelbackoffice.com/.../pdf_report/Market_Outlook_14_05_2014.pdf · 11 Market Outlook May 14, 2014 Dealer’s Diary The Indian Markets are

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Market Outlook

May 14, 2014

Dealer’s Diary

The Indian Markets are expected to to open on a positive note today tracking

positive start to SGX Nifty which is trading up by ~0.4%.

US stocks showed a lack of direction throughout the trading day on Tuesday after

moving sharply higher over the course of the previous session. The lackluster

performance was partially due to release of a report from the Commerce

Department showing weaker than expected retail sales growth in the month of

April. The report said retail sales edged up by 0.1% (expected 0.4%) in April after

surging up by an upwardly revised 1.5% in March. Meanwhile, European stocks

settled slightly higher after choppy session Tuesday, aided by gains among a few

big companies posting better-than-expected earnings.

Back home, Indian shares recorded all-time high for a third consecutive session on

Tuesday lifted by heavy capital inflows from foreign institutional investors (FIIs).

Strong buying was witnessed across the markets on hopes of a strong government

coming to power after various exit polls conducted projected a clear win for

Narendra Modi led NDA in Lok Sabha elections. The actual results are slated to be

announced on Friday.

Markets Today

The trend deciding level for the day is 23,890 / 7,116 levels. If NIFTY trades above

this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally

up to 24,050 – 24,229 / 7,165 – 7,221 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below

23,890 / 7,116 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct

23,711 – 23,550 / 7,060 – 7,011 levels.

Indices S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2

SENSEX 23,550 23,711 23,890 24,050 24,229

NIFTY 7,011 7,060 7,116 7,165 7,221

News Analysis

Result Review: Dr. Reddy’s Labs, BOB, PNB, Siyaram Silk Mills

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (May 12, 2014)

` cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTD

FII 4,679 3,417 1,262 2,807 39,177

MFs 947 778 169 442 (10,248)

FII Derivatives (May 13, 2014)

` cr Purch Sales Net Open Interest

Index Futures 4,918 3,418 1,500 12,750

Stock Futures 4,361 4,555 -194 42,681

Gainers / Losers

Gainer Loser

Company Price (`) chg (%) Company Price (`) chg (%)

Titan 319 11.9 Torrent Power 130 (7.4)

Adani Enter 478 11.1 PNB 800 (4.2)

BHEL 219 10.3 Dr Reddys Lab 2,611 (4.0)

Grasim Ind. 2,990 9.8 Apollo Tyres 167 (3.4)

GMR Infra 29 9.7 Bajaj Fin. 1,853 (2.1)

Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)

BSE Sensex 1.4 320 23,871

Nifty 1.3 94 7,109

MID CAP 1.4 108 7,619

SMALL CAP 1.7 131 7,763

BSE HC (0.4) -48 10,541

BSE PSU 2.4 171 7,154

BANKEX 0.6 93 16,206

AUTO 0.7 105 14,176

METAL 0.7 75 10,541

OIL & GAS 2.8 295 10,705

BSE IT 2.6 224 8,893

Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)

Dow Jones 0.1 20 16,715

NASDAQ (0.3) (14) 4,130

FTSE 0.3 21 6,873

Nikkei 2.0 276 14,425

Hang Sang 0.4 91 22,352

Straits Times (0.9) -30 3,222

Shanghai Com (0.1) -2 2,051

Indian ADR Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)

INFY 0.6 0.3 $54.3

WIT (0.9) (0.1) $12.0

IBN (3.2) (1.6) $48.1

HDB (2.3) (1.0) $43.9

Advances / Declines BSE NSE

Advances 1,593 959

Declines 1,300 547

Unchanged 145 110

Volumes (` cr)

BSE 4,621

NSE 22,247

2


Market Outlook

May 14, 2014

Result Review

Dr Reddy’s Lab (CMP: `2,730/ TP: `3,634/ Upside: 33%)

DRL, posted numbers lower than the expectations. DRL, posted net sales of

`3408cr V/s `3,881cr expected, posting a yoy growth of 4%. The main growth

came in from the global generics, 21% yoy, while the PSAI declined by 35% yoy.

The global generics, growth came in on back of the USA and India which grew by

31% yoy and 18% yoy respectively. Russia and CIS, on other posted flat growth.

ROW, on the other hand posted gains of 48% yoy. The PSAI, on the other hand

declined mainly on back of Europe and India, which declined by 46% and 39%

respectively. On, the gross profitability, the GPM, expanded by 680bps to end the

period at 57.2%. However, on back of the lower sales growth, higher SG&A

expenses which grew by 18% and R&D expenses , which grew by 71% yoy

respectively, lead the OPM to come in at 22.4% V/s 24.4% expected, up from

21.4%in 4QFY2013.Also, the other income dipped by 86% yoy. These factors,

along aided the company to post a net profit of `481.6cr V/s `825cr expected,

posting a dip of 16.0% yoy. We maintain our buy recommendation on the stock

with a price target of `3,634.

Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/sales

March (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2015E 15,590 24.3 2,744 161.6 25.7 16.9 3.9 12.6 3.1

FY2016E 17,915 23.9 3,068 181.7 23.2 15.0 3.2 10.9 2.6

Bank of Baroda (CMP: `878/ TP: / Upside: )

Bank of Baroda’s operating numbers came above our estimates, while asset

quality remained largely stable. On the operating front, NII for bank grew by

11.0% yoy (vs. loan book growth of 21.0%) in-line with estimates. Opex growth for

the bank moderated to 2.6% (as compared to ~25% growth witnessed in last 3

quarters) which was in line our estimates. Overall the Pre-Provisioning operating

profit grew by 18.2% yoy (aided by higher-than-estimated non-interest income).

On the asset quality front bank witnessed improvement as slippages came in lower

qoq at `1,213cr (`1,534cr in 3QFY14) while incremental restructuring came in

sequentially at `1,157cr (`1,213cr in 3QFY14). Absolute gross NPAs remained flat

qoq while absolute net NPAs decreased by 8.9% qoq. Overall earnings for the

bank grew by 12.5% yoy. At CMP stock trades at 0.9x FY2016E ABV which factors

in positives for bank hence we maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.

Y/E Op. Inc NIM PAT EPS ABV ROA ROE P/E P/ABV

March (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2015E 17,975 2.2 5,050 117.3 870.9 0.8 13.3 7.5 1.0

FY2016E 20,505 2.2 5,803 134.7 988.7 0.8 13.8 6.5 0.9

PNB- (CMP: `800 / TP: `982/ Upside: 22.7%)

PNB’s operating numbers came below ours as well as street’s estimates, while

asset quality witnessed pressures (as compared to improvement witnessed in last

quarter). On the operating front, NII for bank grew by 6.0% yoy (5.2% de-growth

qoq) largely due to interest reversals on bad loans. Non-interest income grew

18.8% yoy higher than our estimates. Opex growth for the bank moderated to

3


Market Outlook

May 14, 2014

5.9% (as compared to ~20% growth witnessed in last 2 quarters). Overall the Pre-

Provisioning operating profit grew by 11.3% yoy (aided by higher-than-estimated

non-interest income). On the asset quality front absolute gross NPAs increased by

13.8% qoq while absolute net NPAs increased by 9.2% sequentially. Slippages

surged significantly qoq at `4,182cr (`1,505cr in 3QFY14) while incremental

restructuring came at `2,900cr (`2,150cr in 3QFY14) both much higher than our

estimates. Thus gross and net NPAs ratios increased by 29bp and 5bp qoq to

5.3% and 2.9% respectively. Overall earnings for the bank de-grew by 28.7% yoy.

At CMP, the stock trades at relatively cheaper valuations of 0.7x FY2016E ABV

compared to its peers. We recommend Buy rating on the stock.

Y/E Op. Inc NIM PAT EPS ABV ROA ROE P/E P/ABV

March (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2015E 23,031 3.3 4,754 131 1,007 0.8 13.1 6.2 0.8

FY2016E 26,331 3.3 5,741 159 1,155 0.9 14.2 5.2 0.7

Siyaram Silk Mills (CMP: `340/ TP: `423/ Upside: 24%)

Siyaram Silk Mills (SSM) reported strong set of numbers, way ahead than our

estimates for 4QFY2014. The company's top line for the quarter grew substantially

by 31.8% yoy to `406cr, against our estimate of `319cr. The operating margin

was almost flat yoy at 10.6%, and in-line with our estimate of 10.3%, mainly

because of the higher raw material cost as a percent of net sales. Interest and tax

outgo for the quarter was `8cr and `11cr respectively. On account of strong

revenue growth, the company reported a strong profit growth for the quarter which

came in at `20cr, 42.8% higher yoy and 22.7% higher than our estimate of `16cr.

In order to improve the demand scenario, SSML was in process of launching new

designs and attractive schemes, which we assume has helped in driving the sales.

At CMP of `340, the stock is trading at a PE of 3.2x FY2016E earnings. As we

rollover to FY2016E, we maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with the

revised target price of `423 based on a target P/E of 4.0x for FY2016E. We may

revise our target post management interaction.

Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

March (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2015E 1,525 10.7 80 85.7 19.8 4.0 0.7 3.4 0.4

FY2016E 1,759 10.7 99 105.9 20.4 3.2 0.6 2.7 0.3

4


Market Outlook

May 14, 2014

Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

Asian Paints Ltd Consol - May 14, 2014

Particulars (` cr) 4QFY14E 4QFY13 y-o-y (%) 3QFY14 q-o-q (%)

Net sales 3,141 2,714 15.8 3,413 (8.0)

EBITDA 451 393 14.8 537 (16.0)

EBITDA margin (%) 14.4 14.5 15.7

Net profit 290 251 15.3 329 (12.1)

Tata Steel Ltd Consol - May 14, 2014


Net sales 41,348 34,180 21.0 36,410 13.6

EBITDA 4,443 4,369 1.7 4,007 10.9

EBITDA margin (%) 10.7 12.8 11.0

Net profit 915 884 3.5 503 81.9

Tech Mahindra Ltd Consol - May 14, 2014


Net sales 4,995 1,907 161.9 4,899 2.0

EBITDA 1,070 380 181.5 1,136 (5.8)

EBITDA margin (%) 21.4 19.9 23.2

Net profit 636 377 68.5 1,010 (37.0)

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Lt - May 15, 2014


Net sales 923 772 19.7 802 15.1

EBITDA 607 640 (5.1) 589 3.0

EBITDA margin (%) 65.8 83.0 73.5

Net profit 487 491 (0.8) 477 2.0

Bajaj Auto Ltd - May 15, 2014


Net sales 4,895 4,651 5.2 5,025 (2.6)

EBITDA 1,015 837 21.4 1,135 (10.6)

EBITDA margin (%) 20.7 18.0 22.6

Net profit 804 766 5.0 905 (11.1)

Bank of India - May 15, 2014


Net profit 630 757 (16.7) 586 7.6

NTPC Ltd - May 15, 2014


Net sales 18,916 16,462 14.9 18,779 0.7

EBITDA 4,623 4,794 (3.6) 4,656 (0.7)

EBITDA margin (%) 24.4 29.1 24.8

Net profit 2,749 4,382 (37.3) 2,861 (3.9)

5


Market Outlook

May 14, 2014

United Spirits Ltd - May 16, 2014


Net sales 2,198 2,058 6.8 2,278 (3.5)

EBITDA 203 236 (14.2) 222 (8.9)

EBITDA margin (%) 9.2 11.5 9.8

Net profit 79 56 41.6 65 22.2

Economic and Political News

Government spends `3,426cr on Lok Sabha polls

BJP welcomes Obama's statement on working closely with new government

Steel industry wants new government to push demand

CAG will audit private companies, PPPs having revenue sharing pact

Corporate News

L&T gets construction orders worth `1,137cr in April-May 2014

Indian Oil plans maintenance at Koyali, Haldia, Mathura refineries

Reliance, BP slaps arbitration notice against govt. over gas pricing delay

DM Healthcare planning IPO to raise US$250mn

HCL Technologies wins global contract from Novartis

Maruti Alto crosses 25lakh unit sales mark in domestic market

Date Company

May 14, 2014 Tata Steel, Asian Paints, Tech Mahindra, Mphasis, HSIL

May 15, 2014J & K Bank, NTPC, Bajaj Auto, Mundra Port, Bank of India, Adani Power, Gujarat Gas, Apollo Tyres, Nagarjuna Const., Goodyear

May 16, 2014 Cadila Healthcare, United Spirits, SpiceJet

May 17, 2014 Adani Enterp.

May 18, 2014

May 19, 2014 Reliance Power, Reliance Infra.

May 20, 2014 Essar Oil, Punj Lloyd

May 21, 2014 Zee Entertainment, UCO Bank

May 22, 2014 Cummins India, Motherson Sumi, Ashok Leyland, Ramco Cements

May 23, 2014 ITC, Bosch India, Colgate, Sun TV Network, BGR Energy , LMW, Heritage Foods

May 24, 2014 PTC India

May 25, 2014

May 26, 2014 GAIL, Rural Elec.Corp., Britannia, India Cements, GIPCL, Subros, Hitachi

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Result Calendar

Global economic events release calendar

Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

Last Reported Estimated

May 14, 2014 2:00PM UK Jobless claims change % Change Apr (30.40) (30.00)

May 15, 2014 12:00PM India Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY% % Change Apr 5.70 5.70

6:00PM US Initial Jobless claims Thousands May 10 319.00 320.00

11:30AM Germany GDP nsa (YoY) % Change 1Q P 1.30 2.50

2:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) % Apr F 0.70 0.70

2:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) % Change 1Q A 0.20 0.40

6:00PM US Consumer price index (mom) % Change Apr 0.20 0.30

6:45PM US Industrial Production % Apr 0.73 --

May 16, 2014 6:00PM US Building permits Thousands Apr 997.00 1,010.00

6:00PM US Housing Starts Thousands Apr 946.00 980.00

May 20, 2014 2:00PM UK CPI (YoY) % Change Apr 1.60 --

May 21, 2014 7:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Value May A (8.60) --

May 22, 2014 1:00PM Germany PMI Services Value May P 54.70 --

1:00PM Germany PMI Manufacturing Value May P 54.10 --

2:00PM UK GDP (YoY) % Change 1Q P 3.10 --

7:30PM US Existing home sales Million Apr 4.59 4.67

May 23, 2014 7:30PM US New home sales Thousands Apr 384.00 430.00

May 27, 2014 7:30PM US Consumer Confidence S.A./ 1985=100 May 82.30 --

May 28, 2014 1:25PM Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands May (25.00) --

May 29, 2014 6:00PM US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 1Q S 0.10 --

May 30, 2014 5:30PM India Qtrly GDP YoY% % Change 1Q 4.70 --

June 1, 2014 6:30AM China PMI Manufacturing Value May 50.40 --

June 2, 2014 2:00PM UK PMI Manufacturing Value May 57.30 --

June 3, 2014 11:00AM India RBI Repo rate % Jun 3 8.00 --

11:00AM India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % Jun 3 4.00 --

11:00AM India RBI Reverse Repo rate % Jun 3 7.00 --


May 14, 2014

Market Outlook

Market Outlook May 14, 2014

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Macro watch

Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends

Source: CSO, Angel Research

Exhibit 2: IIP trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends


Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

Source: RBI, Angel Research

9.1 8.2

8.7 9.6

7.6 7.0

6.5 5.8

4.5 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.8 4.7

3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0

10.0 11.0 12.0

1QFY

11

2QFY

11

3QFY

11

4QFY

11

1QFY

12

2QFY

12

3QFY

12

4QFY

12

1QFY

13

2QFY

13

3QFY

13

4QFY

13

1QFY

14

2QFY

14

3QFY

14

(%)

1.5

(2.5)

(1.8)

2.6

0.4

2.7

(1.2) (1.3)

0.1

0.8

(1.8)

(0.5)

(3.0)

(2.0)

(1.0)

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

Apr

-13

May

-13

Jun-

13

Jul-1

3

Aug-

13

Sep-

13

Oct

-13

Nov

-13

Dec

-13

Jan-

14

Feb

-14

Mar

-14

(%

4.65.2

5.9

7.0 7.1 7.2 7.5

6.4

5.24.7

5.7

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

May

-13

Jun-

13

Jul-1

3

Aug

-13

Sep-

13

Oct

-13

Nov

-13

Dec

-13

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

(%)

44.0

46.0

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0 M

ar-1

3

Apr

-13

May

-13

Jun-

13

Jul-1

3

Aug

-13

Sep

-13

Oct

-13

Nov

-13

Dec

-13

Jan-

14

Feb

-14

Mar

-14

Apr

-14

Mfg. PMI Services PMI

(21.0)(18.0)(15.0)(12.0)(9.0)(6.0)(3.0)0.0 3.0 6.0 9.0

12.0 15.0 18.0

Apr

-13

May

-13

Jun-

13

Jul-

13

Aug

-13

Sep-

13

Oct

-13

Nov

-13

Dec

-13

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

Apr

-13

Apr

-13

May

-13

Jun-

13

Jun-

13

Jul-1

3

Aug

-13

Aug

-13

Sep-

13

Oct

-13

Oct

-13

Nov

-13

Dec

-13

Dec

-13

Jan-

14

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR (%)



Global watch

Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries


Exhibit 2: 2014 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries

Source: IMF, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries


1.9

2.0

4.7

7.4

2.0

5.2

5.1

0.6

3.1

2.3

1.3

0.8

2.6

-1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0

Braz

il

Rus

sia

Indi

a

Chi

na

Sout

h Af

rica

Indo

nesia

Mal

aysi

a

Thai

land UK

USA

Ger

man

y

Fran

ce

Japa

n

(%)

1.8

1.3

5.4

7.5

2.3

5.4

5.2

2.5

2.9

2.8

1.7 1.0

1.4

-1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0

Braz

il

Rus

sia

Indi

a

Chi

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Sout

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rica

Indo

nesia

Mal

aysi

a

Thai

land UK

USA

Ger

man

y

Fran

ce

Japa

n

(%)

10.8

4.7

15.1

7.9

15.0

14.8

16.4

12.7

14.3

15.6

13.4

14.9

13.4

-2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0

10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0

Braz

il

Rus

sia

Indi

a

Chi

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Sout

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rica

Indo

nesia

Mal

aysi

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Thai

land UK

USA

Ger

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Fran

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Japa

n

(x)



Exhibit 4: Indian index performance compared to developing countries (12 Months)

Source: Bloomberg

Exhibit 5: Indian index performance compared to developed countries (12 Months)

Source: Bloomberg

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14USA UK Japan Germany France India

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14USA UK Japan Germany France India

Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( ₹cr ) OPM(%) EPS (₹) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

( ₹ ) Price ( ₹) ( ₹ cr ) FY15E FY16E FY15E FY16E FY15E FY16E FY15E FY16E FY15E FY16E FY15E FY16E FY15E FY16E

Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis Neutral 185 - 3,594 2,020 2,365 13.9 13.9 9.0 10.5 20.5 17.6 4.3 3.6 22.6 22.4 1.8 1.5

United Phosphorus Buy 275 353 11,787 11,850 13,627 17.3 17.3 29.9 35.3 9.2 7.8 1.9 1.5 22.2 21.7 1.1 0.9

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Amara Raja Batteries Accumulate 399 440 6,815 4,008 4,550 16.4 16.4 24.6 27.3 16.2 14.6 3.9 3.2 26.8 23.9 1.6 1.4

Apollo Tyres Accumulate 167 185 8,392 14,625 16,406 13.2 13.2 19.3 22.5 8.6 7.4 1.7 1.4 20.9 20.2 0.7 0.6

Ashok Leyland Neutral 26 - 6,785 11,483 13,897 6.0 8.1 (0.2) 1.2 20.7 2.7 2.4 (1.7) 8.3 0.7 0.6

Automotive Axle# Neutral 389 - 588 703 890 10.0 11.2 14.8 26.7 26.3 14.6 2.0 1.8 7.7 12.9 0.9 0.7

Bajaj Auto Buy 1,979 2,460 57,272 23,263 26,434 20.6 20.4 132.5 148.6 14.9 13.3 4.8 3.9 35.4 32.1 2.0 1.7

Bharat Forge Accumulate 447 485 10,413 6,656 7,515 18.2 18.4 21.5 26.9 20.8 16.7 3.6 3.1 18.5 20.0 1.7 1.4

Bosch India* Accumulate 10,737 11,424 33,714 10,021 11,716 16.8 17.9 364.8 456.9 29.4 23.5 4.7 4.0 16.0 17.1 3.0 2.5

CEAT Buy 387 493 1,393 6,165 6,916 11.2 11.1 82.0 98.6 4.7 3.9 1.1 0.9 25.9 24.7 0.3 0.3

Exide Industries Accumulate 118 134 10,043 6,467 7,219 14.0 14.3 6.5 7.5 18.1 15.7 2.4 2.2 14.0 14.5 1.2 1.0

FAG Bearings* Neutral 2,192 - 3,642 1,675 2,002 14.5 16.5 96.6 131.1 22.7 16.7 3.2 2.7 15.1 17.6 2.0 1.6

Hero Motocorp Neutral 2,429 - 48,501 27,566 30,399 14.4 14.5 143.7 166.7 16.9 14.6 6.8 5.4 44.9 41.2 1.6 1.4

JK Tyre Buy 188 225 771 7,967 9,189 10.8 10.7 64.3 74.9 2.9 2.5 0.6 0.5 20.6 20.0 0.4 0.4

Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate 1,122 1,203 69,128 43,608 49,112 13.0 13.0 67.7 74.7 16.6 15.0 3.2 3.8 21.0 19.7 1.3 1.1

Maruti Neutral 2,095 - 63,292 49,489 56,694 12.3 12.6 110.6 135.7 18.9 15.5 2.7 2.3 14.9 15.9 1.1 0.9

Motherson Sumi Accumulate 276 299 24,334 34,766 39,144 10.0 10.5 13.4 17.6 20.6 15.7 5.8 4.4 32.1 32.0 0.8 0.7

Subros Buy 28 32 165 1,314 1,508 10.8 10.8 3.3 5.3 8.3 5.2 0.5 0.5 6.7 10.0 0.4 0.3

Tata Motors Accumulate 441 487 118,755 267,566 300,021 15.0 15.0 54.4 61.4 8.1 7.2 2.1 1.6 28.8 25.1 0.5 0.4

TVS Motor Neutral 118 - 5,592 9,031 10,235 6.5 6.8 7.0 8.6 16.8 13.6 3.4 2.8 21.6 22.5 0.6 0.5

Capital Goods

BGR Energy Accumulate 151 160 1,087 3,938 4,362 11.6 11.8 23.9 27.1 6.3 5.6 0.8 0.7 19.9 17.6 0.9 0.9

BHEL Neutral 219 - 53,553 36,844 36,607 10.8 10.8 11.8 11.4 18.5 19.1 1.8 1.6 10.2 9.0 1.3 1.3

Blue Star Buy 217 259 1,952 3,062 3,450 4.7 5.4 9.8 12.5 22.2 17.4 4.0 3.4 19.1 20.9 0.7 0.7

Crompton Greaves Buy 175 215 10,984 14,899 16,720 6.6 7.2 7.9 10.0 22.2 17.5 2.7 2.5 12.9 14.8 0.9 0.8

KEC International Neutral 89 - 2,293 8,657 9,879 7.2 7.5 7.1 9.9 12.6 9.0 1.7 1.5 22.9 24.7 0.5 0.4

Thermax Accumulate 759 840 9,045 6,091 6,988 9.4 9.7 29.5 35.6 25.7 21.3 3.9 3.4 16.0 17.0 1.4 1.2

Cement

ACC Accumulate 1,389 1,485 26,083 12,249 13,960 14.9 15.6 56.1 69.1 24.8 20.1 3.1 2.9 13.0 14.9 1.9 1.7

Ambuja Cements Neutral 222 - 34,266 10,116 11,296 21.8 22.9 8.5 10.2 26.2 21.8 3.4 3.1 13.3 14.9 2.9 2.5

India Cements Buy 73 108 2,256 5,317 6,078 11.1 11.9 3.3 6.4 22.1 11.5 0.8 0.8 3.8 7.1 1.0 0.8


May 14, 2014

Market Outlook

Stock Watch



Cement

J K Lakshmi Cement Buy 128 156 1,500 2,318 2,819 15.3 17.2 8.9 13.3 14.4 9.6 1.1 1.0 7.6 10.5 1.3 1.0

Ramco Cements Neutral 238 - 5,668 4,251 5,018 17.4 19.5 9.6 16.4 24.8 14.6 2.1 1.9 8.8 13.6 1.9 1.6

Shree Cement^ Neutral 6,093 - 21,228 6,558 8,056 24.4 25.3 272.3 360.5 22.4 16.9 4.0 3.3 19.4 21.5 2.8 2.3

UltraTech Cement Neutral 2,215 - 60,756 22,771 26,413 19.5 19.8 79.6 95.9 27.8 23.1 3.2 2.9 12.1 13.1 2.8 2.5

Construction

ITNL Neutral 158 - 3,908 7,303 8,335 30.6 30.6 25.5 32.6 6.2 4.9 0.7 0.6 11.7 13.5 2.9 2.7

Jaiprakash Asso. Neutral 64 - 14,224 14,577 15,549 25.1 25.1 1.4 2.1 45.8 30.5 1.1 1.0 2.3 3.5 2.6 2.5

Larsen & Toubro Accumulate 1,409 1,480 130,653 68,334 79,248 10.2 10.3 54.0 64.3 26.1 21.9 3.9 3.5 13.3 14.6 2.1 1.8

Nagarjuna Const. Neutral 71 - 1,810 6,543 7,193 8.2 8.4 2.8 3.8 25.2 18.6 0.7 0.7 2.9 3.8 0.7 0.6

Sadbhav Engg. Neutral 146 - 2,218 2,866 3,387 11.0 11.3 7.9 10.2 18.5 14.3 2.2 1.9 12.3 14.1 1.1 0.9

Simplex Infra Neutral 208 - 1,029 6,375 6,938 9.8 9.9 12.6 17.1 16.5 12.2 0.7 0.7 4.5 5.9 0.6 0.6

Financials

Axis Bank Buy 1,650 2,140 77,649 22,246 26,526 3.5 3.5 154.3 182.7 10.7 9.0 1.8 1.5 17.7 18.2 - -

Bank of Baroda Neutral 878 - 37,698 17,975 20,505 2.2 2.2 117.3 134.7 7.5 6.5 1.0 0.9 13.3 13.8 - -

Bank of India Buy 252 296 16,185 16,477 18,524 2.1 2.0 53.7 61.1 4.7 4.1 0.6 0.5 12.6 13.0 - -

Canara Bank Buy 302 370 13,912 13,584 14,991 2.0 2.0 59.4 65.9 5.1 4.6 0.5 0.5 9.6 9.8 - -

Dena Bank Buy 64 76 3,437 3,538 3,873 2.4 2.4 12.6 16.1 5.1 4.0 0.5 0.4 9.5 11.1 - -

Federal Bank Neutral 103 - 8,771 3,065 3,493 3.1 3.0 10.2 12.2 10.1 8.4 1.2 1.0 12.0 13.0 - -

HDFC Neutral 907 - 141,474 9,455 11,092 3.3 3.2 40.7 47.6 22.3 19.1 4.6 4.1 28.1 28.4 - -

HDFC Bank Neutral 787 - 189,010 31,637 38,413 4.4 4.3 44.3 55.4 17.8 14.2 3.9 3.2 22.3 23.4 - -

ICICI Bank Buy 1,403 1,730 162,030 31,523 37,196 3.2 3.3 99.7 119.4 14.1 11.7 2.0 1.8 15.1 16.0 - -

IDBI Bank Accumulate 70 76 11,292 9,418 11,094 1.9 2.1 53.1 63.5 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.3 33.9 31.4 - -

J & K Bank Neutral 1,865 - 9,043 3,452 3,984 3.8 3.9 263.8 287.1 7.1 6.5 1.3 1.2 20.4 19.1 - -

LIC Housing Finance Accumulate 293 333 14,764 2,567 3,073 2.4 2.4 30.3 35.6 9.7 8.2 1.7 1.5 18.9 19.1 - -

Punjab Natl.Bank Buy 800 982 28,967 23,031 26,331 3.3 3.3 131.3 158.5 6.1 5.1 0.8 0.7 13.1 14.2 - -

South Ind.Bank Buy 24 30 3,279 1,969 2,241 2.7 2.7 4.2 4.9 5.9 5.0 0.9 0.8 16.2 16.7 - -

St Bk of India Accumulate 2,276 2,464 169,939 76,908 89,629 3.1 3.1 193.4 248.4 11.8 9.2 1.5 1.3 12.0 14.0 - -

UCO Bank Neutral 87 - 8,823 7,817 8,725 2.9 2.9 20.1 22.0 4.3 4.0 0.8 0.7 16.8 16.1 - -

Union Bank Accumulate 154 167 9,719 11,648 12,973 2.3 2.3 33.3 41.1 4.6 3.8 0.6 0.5 11.5 12.9 - -

Yes Bank Accumulate 520 579 18,741 5,246 6,474 2.9 3.0 51.6 61.8 10.1 8.4 2.2 1.8 23.6 23.4 - -

FMCG

Asian Paints Neutral 539 - 51,720 14,498 16,653 16.0 16.0 15.6 17.7 34.6 30.5 10.1 8.1 32.4 29.4 3.4 2.9


May 14, 2014

Market Outlook

Stock Watch



FMCG

Britannia Accumulate 873 945 10,472 7,056 8,065 9.7 9.6 40.4 47.2 21.6 18.5 8.3 6.2 45.1 38.3 1.4 1.2

Colgate Neutral 1,407 - 19,137 4,165 4,836 17.7 18.4 43.5 50.5 32.4 27.8 27.9 21.3 94.1 86.7 4.4 3.8

Dabur India Neutral 189 - 32,941 8,135 9,370 17.1 17.1 6.3 7.3 30.0 26.0 10.0 7.9 37.1 34.0 4.0 3.4

GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 4,159 - 17,492 4,259 4,919 15.7 15.9 143.2 168.3 29.1 24.7 8.7 7.0 33.1 31.4 3.6 3.1

Godrej Consumer Neutral 787 - 26,778 8,956 10,321 15.5 15.5 27.4 33.6 28.7 23.4 5.8 4.8 23.4 23.7 3.1 2.6

HUL Neutral 578 - 124,950 31,055 34,940 13.7 14.2 18.3 20.1 31.5 28.7 26.4 19.1 99.0 77.0 3.8 3.4

ITC Accumulate 361 382 287,150 38,185 44,068 36.9 37.1 12.8 14.7 28.2 24.6 8.7 7.1 33.8 31.7 7.0 6.0

Marico Accumulate 233 254 15,000 5,406 6,351 15.1 15.0 8.4 10.2 27.7 22.7 5.2 4.3 20.4 20.5 2.7 2.2

Nestle* Neutral 4,851 - 46,775 10,356 11,691 22.0 22.2 138.0 160.9 35.2 30.2 14.8 11.2 48.0 55.0 4.4 3.8

Tata Global Neutral 146 - 9,053 8,615 9,562 9.5 9.5 8.1 8.9 18.2 16.5 2.2 2.2 9.1 9.4 1.0 0.9

IT

HCL Tech^ Accumulate 1,433 1,560 100,267 37,265 41,535 24.7 24.0 97.2 109.3 14.8 13.1 3.9 3.1 26.9 23.9 2.3 2.0

Hexaware* Neutral 141 - 4,242 2,620 2,869 21.6 20.7 12.9 13.8 11.0 10.3 2.4 2.1 22.6 21.1 1.5 1.3

Infosys Accumulate 3,266 3,640 187,517 55,368 61,544 27.3 27.8 208.1 235.8 15.7 13.9 3.4 2.9 21.5 20.9 2.7 2.3

Infotech Enterprises Accumulate 309 325 3,465 2,546 2,794 19.5 19.8 30.7 34.2 10.1 9.0 1.9 1.6 18.7 17.7 1.0 0.8

KPIT Cummins Neutral 164 - 3,174 3,002 3,334 16.4 16.0 15.8 18.0 10.4 9.1 1.8 1.5 19.2 18.0 0.9 0.8

Mindtree Accumulate 1,432 1,620 5,971 3,518 3,939 19.7 19.3 121.4 135.3 11.8 10.6 2.7 2.2 23.9 21.1 1.4 1.1

Mphasis& Accumulate 395 435 8,295 6,919 7,368 17.6 17.0 42.2 45.4 9.4 8.7 1.3 1.2 13.9 13.2 0.7 0.6

NIIT Neutral 33 - 540 1,013 1,085 7.1 7.1 2.8 3.2 11.5 10.3 0.8 0.8 6.9 7.4 0.2 0.2

Persistent Accumulate 980 1,080 3,920 1,941 2,165 25.8 25.6 76.9 87.7 12.7 11.2 2.5 2.1 19.9 18.7 1.6 1.2

TCS Accumulate 2,211 2,410 433,006 94,802 107,609 30.2 29.9 112.1 126.3 19.7 17.5 7.2 6.3 36.4 36.2 4.3 3.8

Tech Mahindra Accumulate 1,822 1,970 42,542 21,671 24,049 22.0 21.8 132.4 151.9 13.8 12.0 3.5 2.8 25.3 22.9 1.6 1.3

Wipro Accumulate 529 600 130,454 50,077 54,857 23.3 21.3 36.8 40.6 14.4 13.0 3.2 2.6 21.8 20.0 2.1 1.8

Media

D B Corp Buy 281 360 5,157 2,086 2,317 27.3 28.4 18.6 21.7 15.1 12.9 3.5 3.0 25.5 25.2 2.3 2.0

HT Media Accumulate 97 110 2,258 2,354 2,597 14.9 15.3 8.9 10.5 10.9 9.3 1.2 1.0 11.1 11.7 0.5 0.4

Jagran Prakashan Buy 106 130 3,472 1,867 2,074 23.4 24.4 7.5 9.0 14.1 11.9 3.0 2.6 22.1 23.4 1.9 1.6

Sun TV Network Buy 379 470 14,918 2,548 2,879 68.6 68.9 22.4 25.5 16.9 14.8 4.2 3.7 26.9 26.7 5.5 4.7

Pharmaceuticals

Alembic Pharma Neutral 266 - 5,017 2,188 2,542 18.8 18.3 15.1 17.4 17.6 15.3 5.4 4.2 35.3 31.1 2.3 1.9

Aurobindo Pharma Neutral 621 - 18,086 11,296 12,991 14.0 14.0 32.3 34.2 19.2 18.1 3.7 3.1 21.3 18.6 2.0 1.8

Aventis* Neutral 3,029 - 6,976 1,910 2,171 17.3 17.3 112.7 124.9 26.9 24.3 4.1 3.3 19.0 21.0 3.3 2.7


May 14, 2014

Market Outlook

Stock Watch



Pharmaceuticals

Cadila Healthcare Accumulate 987 1,064 20,217 8,367 9,889 15.7 15.7 44.7 53.2 22.1 18.6 4.6 3.8 22.9 22.6 2.7 2.2

Cipla Buy 391 495 31,370 11,400 13,313 21.0 21.0 23.6 27.5 16.6 14.2 2.6 2.2 17.0 16.9 2.5 2.1

Dr Reddy's Buy 2,611 3,634 44,392 15,590 17,915 24.3 23.9 161.6 181.7 16.2 14.4 3.7 3.0 25.7 23.2 2.8 2.4

Dishman Pharma Buy 91 116 738 1,464 1,610 22.4 22.4 14.6 16.6 6.3 5.5 0.6 0.5 9.9 10.3 1.0 0.8

GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,426 - 20,550 2,640 2,853 19.7 20.5 54.5 59.4 44.5 40.8 10.5 10.5 23.4 25.7 7.1 6.6

Indoco Remedies Neutral 145 - 1,335 906 1,051 16.0 16.0 8.1 9.7 17.9 14.9 2.6 2.2 15.4 16.0 1.7 1.4

Ipca labs Accumulate 813 886 10,253 4,087 4,823 23.5 22.6 52.7 59.2 15.4 13.7 3.9 3.1 28.4 25.0 2.6 2.1

Lupin Buy 964 1,122 43,220 13,256 15,099 24.9 24.9 47.1 53.4 20.5 18.1 4.9 3.9 26.7 23.9 3.2 2.8

Ranbaxy* Neutral 455 - 19,277 11,924 13,028 7.9 8.4 9.6 11.5 47.4 39.6 5.2 4.6 11.6 12.3 2.3 2.1

Sun Pharma Accumulate 610 643 126,379 16,450 32,385 42.0 28.5 24.3 26.8 25.1 22.8 4.8 4.2 25.3 25.2 6.7 3.7

Power

NTPC Neutral 123 - 101,296 80,128 88,168 23.5 24.0 13.0 13.8 9.5 8.9 1.1 1.0 11.8 11.3 2.0 1.8

Real Estate

MLIFE Buy 403 478 1,645 850 1,062 28.9 29.0 30.4 39.6 13.3 10.2 1.1 1.0 8.4 10.1 3.2 2.5

Telecom

Bharti Airtel Neutral 320 - 127,877 94,202 102,142 32.9 34.0 12.6 16.0 25.3 20.1 2.1 1.9 8.8 10.1 1.9 1.6

Idea Cellular Neutral 139 - 46,278 28,410 30,953 31.6 32.0 6.5 7.9 21.5 17.6 2.5 2.2 11.6 12.5 2.0 1.8

Rcom Neutral 123 - 25,357 23,563 25,244 34.7 34.9 6.2 7.2 19.7 17.0 0.7 0.7 3.7 4.1 2.6 2.3

zOthers

Abbott India* Accumulate 1,713 1,948 3,641 1,996 2,184 12.3 11.9 80.1 84.7 21.4 20.2 4.1 3.6 20.2 19.0 1.6 1.4

Bajaj Electricals Neutral 317 - 3,172 4,713 5,483 6.6 6.6 16.1 20.0 19.7 15.9 3.7 3.1 18.6 19.4 0.7 0.6

Cera Sanitaryware Sell 1,102 934 1,395 842 1,070 12.8 12.5 46.1 58.4 23.9 18.9 5.1 4.1 23.3 23.9 1.7 1.3

Cravatex Neutral 320 - 83 248 284 6.5 7.3 27.2 38.2 11.8 8.4 1.9 1.6 15.7 18.5 0.5 0.4

Finolex Cables Accumulate 159 169 2,426 2,665 3,017 10.7 10.7 14.6 16.9 10.9 9.4 1.9 1.6 17.1 16.7 0.8 0.6

Goodyear India* Buy 385 472 888 1,667 1,777 9.5 10.1 45.2 51.1 8.5 7.5 1.8 1.5 22.5 21.4 0.3 0.3

Hitachi Buy 170 220 463 1,206 1,383 5.6 5.7 10.6 14.6 16.1 11.6 1.8 1.6 11.4 14.1 0.4 0.4

Honeywell Automation* Neutral 3,280 - 2,900 1,783 1,893 6.9 7.1 103.7 110.9 31.6 29.6 3.4 3.1 11.2 10.8 1.5 1.4

IFB Agro Buy 192 287 180 580 666 11.2 11.2 39.9 46.0 4.8 4.2 0.8 0.6 17.8 17.5 0.2 0.1

Jyothy Laboratories Buy 198 241 3,591 1,523 1,886 13.9 14.3 9.3 10.5 21.4 19.0 2.9 2.5 14.4 14.2 2.4 1.9

MRF Accumulate 21,404 24,043 9,078 12,821 13,659 14.6 15.3 2,084.5 2,404.4 10.3 8.9 2.0 1.6 21.7 20.3 0.7 0.6

Page Industries Accumulate 5,999 6,791 6,692 1,428 1,755 19.8 20.1 168.7 212.2 35.6 28.3 16.2 11.6 53.2 47.8 4.8 3.9

Relaxo Footwears Accumulate 362 402 2,169 1,397 1,599 12.6 12.7 15.5 18.3 23.3 19.8 6.3 4.9 29.9 27.9 1.6 1.4

Siyaram Silk Mills Accumulate 340 382 319 1,396 1,594 10.9 10.8 78.7 95.4 4.3 3.6 0.7 0.6 18.5 19.0 0.4 0.3


May 14, 2014

Market Outlook

Stock Watch



zOthers

Styrolution ABS India* Neutral 450 - 791 1,172 1,288 7.0 7.0 29.7 33.3 15.2 13.5 1.5 1.4 10.5 10.7 0.7 0.6

TAJ GVK Buy 68 108 424 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 8.6 7.4 1.1 1.0 13.9 14.4 1.7 1.5

Tata Sponge Iron Accumulate 560 632 863 849 897 17.4 18.4 67.7 75.0 8.3 7.5 1.1 1.0 14.0 13.8 0.5 0.4

Tree House Neutral 302 - 1,120 206 245 54.0 53.4 16.3 19.6 18.6 15.4 2.7 2.3 14.3 15.2 5.1 4.2

TVS Srichakra Buy 330 381 253 1,781 1,997 6.6 6.5 51.5 63.5 6.4 5.2 1.1 0.9 18.4 19.4 0.2 0.2

Vesuvius India* Accumulate 519 551 1,053 688 758 18.1 18.0 36.0 39.3 14.4 13.2 2.3 2.0 17.1 16.2 1.3 1.1

HSIL Neutral 187 - 1,237 1,814 2,132 15.0 15.1 10.6 15.4 17.7 12.2 1.1 1.0 6.1 8.3 1.1 1.0

Heritage Foods Accumulate 298 321 692 1,912 2,171 6.1 6.2 26.8 32.7 11.1 9.1 2.8 2.2 25.1 23.8 0.4 0.3Kirloskar Engines India Ltd Accumulate 220 236 3,182 2,377 2,603 12.2 12.6 13.6 15.7 16.2 14.0 2.3 2.1 14.8 15.5 1.0 0.9

M M Forgings Neutral 145 - 175 469 534 18.1 18.1 26.8 32.8 5.4 4.4 0.8 0.7 15.8 17.1 0.6 0.5

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on May 13, 2014


May 14, 2014

Market Outlook

Stock Watch

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Market OutlookMay 14, 2014

Documents

May 14, 2014 - web.angelbackoffice.comweb.angelbackoffice.com/.../pdf_report/Market_Outlook_14_05_2014.pdf · 11 Market Outlook May 14, 2014 Dealer’s Diary The Indian Markets are