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Markus AmannInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
After 1990 Asian emissions have grown rapidlydue to fast economic development
SO2 NOx
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1990 1995 2000 2005
China India
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990 1995 2000 2005
Mill
ion
to
ns
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990 1995 2000 2005
Mill
ion
to
ns
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1990 1995 2000 2005
10
12 E
uro
GDP
Per-capita NOx emissions1940-2030
2030
1940
North America1970
2000
2000
Europe1960
2030
0
25
50
75
100
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000
Per-capita income ($/capita), PPP
kg N
Ox/
ca
pit
a
Per-capita NOx emissions1940-2030
2030
1940
North America1970
2000
2000
Europe1960
2030
2000
Russia
East Asia
South Asia
Africa
0
25
50
75
100
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000
Per-capita income ($/capita), PPP
kg N
Ox/
ca
pit
a
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Disability adjusted life years lost (DALYs), million/yr
Indoor pollution from solid fuel use in households
Outdoor pollution from solid fuel use in households
Outdoor pollution from other sources
Air pollution causes severe health impactsIndia, 2000 (Source: GAINS-India)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Disability adjusted life years lost (DALYs), million/yr
Indoor pollution from solid fuel use in households
Outdoor pollution from solid fuel use in households
Outdoor pollution from other sources
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Disability adjusted life years lost (DALYs), million/yr
Indoor pollution from solid fuel use in households
Outdoor pollution from solid fuel use in households
Outdoor pollution from other sources
Loss in statistical life expectancy from exposure to outdoor PM2.5
DALYs from air pollution
0%
200%
400%
600%
800%
1000%
1200%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
rela
tive
to
200
0
GDP (PPP) Population GDP/cap (PPP) CO2
0%
200%
400%
600%
800%
1000%
1200%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
rela
tive
to
200
0
GDP (PPP) Population GDP/cap (PPP) CO2
0%
200%
400%
600%
800%
1000%
1200%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
rela
tive
to
200
0
GDP (PPP) Population GDP/cap (PPP) CO2
The economic projection of the Indian government provided by TERI
0%
200%
400%
600%
800%
1000%
1200%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
rela
tive
to
200
0
GDP (PPP) Population GDP/cap (PPP) CO2
CO2
2000 = 100%
0%
200%
400%
600%
800%
1000%
1200%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Em
issi
on
s r
ela
tive
to
20
00
GDP (PPP) SO2 NOx PM2.5 YOLLs
Air pollution will grow toodespite the current Indian pollution control legislation
2000 = 100%
SO2
NOx
PM2.5
Health impacts from PM2.5 in 2030for governmental energy projection + current AQ legislation
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Disability adjusted life years lost (DALYs), million/yr
2000 2030 baseline 2030 replacement byLPG
Indoor pollution from solid fuel use in households
Outdoor pollution from solid fuel use in households
Outdoor pollution from other sources
Loss in statistical life expectancy from exposure to outdoor PM2.5
DALYs from air pollution
CO2 emissionsBaseline projections with current measures, 2000 and 2030
0
2
4
6
8
10
2000 2030
ton
s/p
ers
on
/ye
ar
India EU
CO2/capita
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 20301
00
0 E
uro
/ye
ar
India EU
GDP/capita
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2000 2030
Mill
ion
to
ns
CO
2
India EU
Total CO2 emissions
Combined AQ and CC measures:1) Phase-out of solid fuels in domestic sector
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Disability adjusted life years lost (DALYs), million/yr
2000 2030 baseline 2030 replacement byLPG
Indoor pollution from solid fuel use in households
Outdoor pollution from solid fuel use in households
Outdoor pollution from other sources
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Gt CO2
2000 2030 baseline 2030 replacement byLPG
Domestic sectorOther fuels
DALYs from air pollution CO2 emissions
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
800%
PM10 SO2 NOx CO2
Em
issi
on
s r
ela
tiv
e t
o y
ear
200
0
Coal with current air pollution (AP) standards Coal + advanced air pollution controlWith IGCC for new plants after 2015 IGCC + carbon capture
Combined AQ and CC measures:2) End-of-pipe measures
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
800%
PM10 SO2 NOx CO2
Em
issi
on
s r
ela
tiv
e t
o y
ear
200
0
Coal with current air pollution (AP) standards Coal + advanced air pollution controlWith IGCC for new plants after 2015 IGCC + carbon capture
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
800%
PM10 SO2 NOx CO2
Em
issi
on
s r
ela
tiv
e t
o y
ear
200
0
Coal with current air pollution (AP) standards Coal + advanced air pollution controlWith IGCC for new plants after 2015 IGCC + carbon capture
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
800%
PM10 SO2 NOx CO2
Em
issi
on
s r
ela
tiv
e t
o y
ear
200
0
Coal with current air pollution (AP) standards Coal + advanced air pollution controlWith IGCC for new plants after 2015 IGCC + carbon capture
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
800%
PM10 SO2 NOx CO2
Em
issi
on
s r
ela
tive
to
ye
ar 2
000
Coal with current air pollution (AP) standards Coal + advanced air pollution controlWith IGCC for new plants after 2015 IGCC + carbon capture
Level in 2000
Emissions from electricity generation in Andra Pradesh
Costs of electricity generation Andra Pradesh, 2030 (Source: GAINS-India)
0
3
5
8
10
13
15
Conv. coal with current APstandards
Coal + advanced air pollutioncontrol
With IGCC for new plants after2015
Bill
ion
$/y
ear
IGCC Coal costs PM control SO2 control NOx control
0
3
5
8
10
13
15
Conv. coal with current APstandards
Coal + advanced air pollutioncontrol
With IGCC for new plants after2015
Bill
ion
$/y
ear
IGCC Coal costs PM control SO2 control NOx control
0
3
5
8
10
13
15
Conv. coal with current APstandards
Coal + advanced air pollutioncontrol
With IGCC for new plants after2015
Bill
ion
$/y
ear
IGCC Coal costs PM control SO2 control NOx control
Combined AQ and CC measures:3) Sustainable energy systems
Differences: 1 million ton less CO2 emissions/year in 20207 billion $/yr less control costs for air pollution8 months life expectancy or 10 million life years gained per year
Governmental energy baseline Alternative sustainability energy path
Loss in statistical life expectancy from PM2.5 in 2020(with current legislation on air pollution controls)
Governmental energy baseline
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Rel
ativ
e to
199
0
SO2 NOx PM CO2
Emission trends in China1990-2005-2030
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Rel
ativ
e to
199
0
SO2 NOx PM CO2
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
80% 85% 90% 95% 100%
CO2 emissions relative to baseline
SO
2, N
Ox,
PM
em
issi
ons
, PM
exp
osu
re
inde
x re
lativ
e to
ba
selin
e
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
CO
2 m
itig
atio
n c
ost
s [%
of G
DP
(M
ER
)]
SO2 NOx PM PM exposure index Costs
Costs of CO2 reductions for China in 2020and associated changes in air pollutants emissions
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
80% 85% 90% 95% 100%
CO2 emissions relative to baseline
SO
2, N
Ox,
PM
em
issi
ons
, PM
exp
osu
re
inde
x re
lativ
e to
ba
selin
e
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
CO
2 m
itig
atio
n c
ost
s [%
of G
DP
(M
ER
)]
SO2 NOx PM PM exposure index Costs
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
80% 85% 90% 95% 100%
CO2 emissions relative to baseline
SO
2, N
Ox,
PM
em
issi
ons
, PM
exp
osu
re
inde
x re
lativ
e to
ba
selin
e
-0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
CO
2 m
itig
atio
n c
ost
s [%
of G
DP
(M
ER
)]
SO2 NOx PM PM exposure index Costs
Conclusions
• In addition to “conventional” air pollution problems from industrial sources, AQ impacts from poverty add an additional burden in developing countries.
• Interactions between air pollution and GHG mitigation are equally relevant for developing countries. Well-selected measures to improve local air quality in the near term can deliver co-benefits on GHG emissions.
GAINS-Asia is freely accessible at the Internetwww.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/apd/gains/AS/index.login
