Market Research May 5_May 9

REFERENCE RATES

CURRENCIES

BOND YIELDS

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MARKET RESEARCH

INDEXES PERFORMANCE

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May 5th – May 9th

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FEP Finance Club; Banco de Portugal; BPI

Portuguese debt yields fall

Last week, PSI20 declined 2.98%. The European

Commission expects the Portuguese gross domestic

product (GDP) to grow 1.2% this year and 1.5% next

year. According to U.S. bank Morgan Stanley, the

Portuguese economy is expected to grow 1.4% this

year and 1.6% in 2015, above all official forecasts and

the Eurozone average, due to the impact of structural

reforms already implemented in the country. Besides,

the Portuguese 10-year bonds’ yield closed at 3.54%

on Friday from 3.6% last Monday, after the

Government decided to exit the Bailout Program

without the safety net of a credit line. Moody's

reviewed the credit rating of the long-term sovereign

debt of Portugal by improving it by one notch to Ba2.

ECB keeps benchmark rate at 0.25%

Last week STOXX 50 experienced a loss of 0.12%.

Sentix showed investor confidence in the euro zone

for May deteriorated unexpectedly, underlining

concerns over the outlook for the region’s economy.

Sentix said its index of investor confidence declined to

12.8 this month from a reading of 14.1 in April.

Moreover, German factory orders fell unexpectedly

last month. Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und

Technologie said that German factory orders fell to a

seasonally adjusted -2.8%, from 0.9% in the preceding

month. The European Central Bank held its

benchmark interest rate at a record low in May,

despite ongoing concerns over deflationary pressures

in the region. The ECB said it was maintaining its

benchmark interest rate at a record-low 0.25%.

China’s trade balance exceeds expectations

Most Southeast Asian markets closed higher on the

week, with Philippine leading gains and reaching its

highest level in 11 months. Consumer inflation in

China moderated to an 18-month low as the decline in

factory-gate prices persisted. China’s factory activity

showed slight signs of improvement by gaining 0.1%.

Moreover, China trade surplus increased to USD 18.5

billion in April, as exports (0.9%) and imports (0.8%)

returned to growth. Japan’s leading index fell in March

and reached a 12-month low, while the coincident

index improved to 114.0, according to preliminary

figures showed on Friday. Australia’s trade balance

increased 26% on the previous month, posting the

fourth positive trade balance in a row. Further, RBA

decided to leave interest rates on hold, as housing

price growth slows.


SPOTLIGHT

China Balance of Trade

May 05 May 06 May 07 May 08 May 09

Portugal 6M 0.603% 0.666% 0.677% 0.664% 0.679%

Portugal 5Y 2.445% 2.374% 2.363% 2.271% 2.372%

Portugal 10Y 3.601% 3.571% 3.565% 3.461% 3.540%

Spain 10Y 2.986% 2.949% 2.977% 2.873% 2.918%

France 10Y 1.945% 1.935% 1.944% 1.896% 1.907%

Italy 10Y 3.038% 3.002% 3.019% 2.927% 2.952%

Germany 10Y 1.460% 1.464% 1.472% 1.448% 1.458%

UK 10Y 2.636% 2.664% 2.659% 2.648% 2.698%

May 05 May 06 May 07 May 08 May 09 Wkly Chg

EUR/USD 1.388 1.393 1.391 1.384 1.376 -0.81%

EUR/CHF 1.218 1.218 1.219 1.218 1.220 0.12%

EUR/GBP 0.823 0.821 0.821 0.818 0.816 -0.67%

EUR/JPY 141.720 141.690 141.710 140.630 140.090 -1.16%

EUR/YUAN 8.666 8.672 8.673 8.622 8.569 -1.31%

AUD/JPY 94.820 95.110 94.980 95.180 95.360 0.62%


PSI 20 7,518.12 7,552.34 7,425.55 7,438.79 7,306.36 -2.98%

STOXX 50 6,798.56 6,798.56 6,796.44 6,839.25 6,814.57 -0.12%

FTSE 100 6,798.56 6,798.56 6,796.44 6,839.25 6,814.57 -0.12%

DAX 9,529.50 9,467.53 9,521.30 9,607.40 9,581.45 0.27%

CAC 40 4,462.69 4,428.07 4,446.44 4,507.24 4,477.28 0.43%

NIKKEI 225 14,457.51 14,033.45 14,163.78 14,163.78 14,199.59 -1.78%

HANG SENG 21,976.33 21,976.33 21,746.26 21,837.12 21,862.99 -1.79%


Euribor 1M 0,27% 0,27% 0,26% - 0,26%

Euribor 3M 0,35% 0,35% 0,34% - 0,34%

Euribor 6M 0,44% 0,44% 0,44% - 0,44%

Euribor 12M 0,62% 0,62% 0,61% - 0,61%

Eonia 0,40% 0,46% 0,40% - 0,16%

US TREASURY YIELDS

CURRENCIES

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COMMODITIES

Page 2/2

US jobless claims fall less than expected

The S&P 500 index finished 0.14% lower last week. On

the economic front, the nonmanufacturing purchasing

managers index (PMI) by ISM rose to 55.2 in April,

from 53.1 in the previous month. Analysts surveyed

had forecast April’s PMI to rise, but only to 54.1.

Moreover, U.S. trade deficit narrowed 3.6% to $40.4

billion in March, which was in line with expectations,

after widening out 6.6% to $41.9 billion in February

(revised from $42.3 billion). Besides, U.S. wholesale

inventories rising 1.1% in March, versus a 0.4%

estimate. On the other hand, non-farm business sector

labor productivity fell by a seasonally adjusted 1.7% in

the first quarter, worse than expectations for a decline

of 1%. Finally, the Labor Department report initial

jobless claims fell by 26,000 to 319,000 last week,

versus a 325,000 estimate.

Argentine economy shrinks

Argentina’s GDP fell more-than-expected to 1.4%,

from 3.5% in the preceding month. Analysts had

expected a fall equal to 2.7%. In Brazil, industrial

production fell 0.5% in March, from February, and

0,9% from a year earlier, while the expectations were

for smaller decreases. Besides, consumer price

inflation in Brazil rose less-than-expected last month

to 6.28%. Finally, Mexican consumer price index fell

0.19% last month, lowering the annual inflation rate to

3.5%, from 3.76% at the end of March.

Natural Gas slumps over high inventory

Natural gas futures ended the week at a three-week

low, amid easing concerns over tight supplies. The U.S.

Energy Information Administration said in its weekly

report that the commodity storage rose by 74 billion

cubic feet, above forecasts for an increase of 71 billion

cubic feet. Oil, on the other hand, ended with marginal

gain as a broadly stronger U.S. dollar prompted

investors to lock in recent gains. On the metals front,

gold futures ended week modestly lower, as a broadly

stronger U.S. dollar dampened the appeal of the

precious metal, while traders continued to monitor

developments in Ukraine. Besides, copper gained amid

easing concerns over a slowdown in demand from top

consumer China. Lastly, sugar fell as investors

continued to monitor weather and crop conditions in

Brazil.

SPOTLIGHT

INDEXES PERFORMANCE

U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI



Financial Markets | [email protected]|www.facebook.com/FEPFinanceClub

José Silva David Novo


Pratik Ashok Ana Reis Pedro Santos

FEP Finance Club; Google Finance

Beatriz Fougo


US 3M 0.028% 0.025% 0.030% 0.033% 0.028%

US 1Y 0.098% 0.101% 0.101% 0.093% 0.096%

US 10 Y 2.606% 2.597% 2.625% 2.609% 2.623%

US 30 Y 3.402% 3.389% 3.407% 3.444% 3.465%

1.63% Corn -1.38% Sugar

-0.84%

-1.75%

0.65%

Crude Oil WTI

Natural Gas

Crude Oil Brent Copper

Silver

Gold

-3.30%

-0.61%

0.14%


USD/JPY 102.140 101.730 101.870 101.590 101.860 -0.32%

USD/YUAN 6.246 6.226 6.234 6.228 6.228 -0.51%

AUD/USD 0.928 0.935 0.932 0.937 0.936 0.93%

GBP/USD 1.687 1.698 1.695 1.693 1.685 -0.15%

USD/CHF 0.878 0.874 0.876 0.880 0.886 0.93%

USD/CAD 1.096 1.089 1.090 1.083 1.090 -0.68%


S&P 500 1,884.66 1,867.72 1,878.21 1,875.63 1,878.48 -0.14%

DJIA 16,530.55 16,401.02 16,518.54 16,550.97 16,583.34 0.43%

NQ 100 3,605.09 3,556.51 3,546.47 3,540.42 3,555.70 -0.89%

S&P Lac 40 3,765.93 3,804.80 3,833.69 3,810.03 3,799.77 0.52%

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Market Research May 5_May 9