Market Research May 19_May 23

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REFERENCE RATES

CURRENCIES

BOND YIELDS

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MARKET RESEARCH

INDEXES PERFORMANCE

.

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May 19th – May 23rd

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FEP Finance Club; Banco de Portugal; BPI

Portuguese economic activity picks up

Last week, PSI20 rose 0.29%. The INE revealed that

the indicator of economic activity accelerated in

March, reaching the highest level since August 2010,

after the sharp positive trend started in June 2012.

Nevertheless, the indicator of economic climate

picked up slightly in April. The S&P decided to

reconsider its perspective of the "ratings" of the

national banking system, after having placed the

"outlook" of the Portuguese Republic in "stable" level

on May, 9. The rating agency placed the "rating" of

Santander Totta, CGD, BPI and BES under "stable"

outlook. According to the Ministry of Finance,

between March and April 2014, the deficit of Public

administration soared 167%, from EUR 846.1 to EUR

2257.6 million.

Euro zone’s industrial activity slows down

Following the same trend, STOXX 50 climbed 0.96%.

The U.K. Office for National Statistics said the rate of

consumer price inflation rose 1.8% in April, above

expectations, and up from 1.6% in March. Official data

revealed that the euro zone’s current account surplus

narrowed unexpectedly in March to hit the lowest

level in six months. The ECB said that the euro zone

current account recorded a surplus of €18.8 billion in

March, narrowing from a surplus of €21.8 billion in

February. Moreover, manufacturing activity in the euro

zone expanded at the slowest rate in six months in

May, underlining concerns over the health of the

region’s economy. Markit said that its preliminary

manufacturing purchasing managers’ index declined to

52.5 this month, down from 53.4 in April.

Japan trade deficit narrows in April

Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index

reaching its highest level in more than four months, on

Friday. Activity in China’s manufacturing sector picked

up in May. Manufacturing PMI rose to a five-month

high of 49.7, from 48.1 in April. Japan’s trade gap

dropped to ¥808.9 billion in April, down from a

revised ¥1446 billion shortfall in the previous month.

Japan’s exports rose 5.1% (YoY), while imports rose

3.4%. Moreover, BoJ kept its pledge to increase the

monetary base at an annual pace of 60-70 trillion yen,

as it considers the bond-buying programme has been

exerting its intended effects. Consumer confidence in

Australia turned sharply lower in May, reaching a score

of 92.9. Further, RBA kept its cash rate at a record

low of 2.5%.


SPOTLIGHT

Japan balance of trade

May 19 May 20 May 21 May 22 May 23

Portugal 6M 0.589% 0.594% 0.589% 0.581% 0.534%

Portugal 5Y 2.792% 2.919% 2.820% 2.842% 2.678%

Portugal 10Y 3.862% 3.970% 3.826% 3.829% 3.771%

Spain 10Y 3.029% 3.092% 3.005% 3.043% 2.978%

France 10Y 1.807% 1.841% 1.849% 1.819% 1.826%

Italy 10Y 3.166% 3.256% 3.193% 3.231% 3.147%

Germany 10Y 1.341% 1.355% 1.374% 1.360% 1.419%

UK 10Y 2.584% 2.616% 2.649% 2.654% 2.646%


Euribor 1M 0.257% 0.256% 0.259% 0.262% 0.261%

Euribor 3M 0.318% 0.318% 0.319% 0.318% 0.317%

Euribor 6M 0.409% 0.407% 0.407% 0.407% 0.406%

Euribor 12M 0.586% 0.585% 0.583% 0.583% 0.578%

Eonia 0.177% 0.196% 0.271% 0.337% 0.396%

May 19 May 20 May 21 May 22 May 23 Wkly Chg

EUR/USD 1.371 1.370 1.368 1.365 1.363 -0.46%

EUR/CHF 1.223 1.222 1.222 1.221 1.221 -0.13%

EUR/GBP 0.816 0.814 0.810 0.810 0.810 -0.59%

EUR/JPY 139.150 138.780 138.780 138.970 139.010 -0.01%

EUR/YUAN 8.552 8.547 8.530 8.515 8.500 -0.45%

AUD/JPY 94.700 93.500 93.670 93.900 94.130 -0.96%


PSI 20 6,899.76 6,896.20 6,857.23 6,877.68 6,917.73 0.29%

STOXX 50 3,169.90 3,163.93 3,187.08 3,187.63 3,203.28 0.96%

FTSE 100 6,844.55 6,802.00 6,821.04 6,820.56 6,815.75 -0.58%

DAX 9,659.39 9,639.08 9,697.87 9,720.91 9,768.01 1.44%

CAC 40 4,469.76 4,452.35 4,469.03 4,478.21 4,493.15 0.83%

NIKKEI 225 14,006.44 14,075.25 14,042.17 14,337.79 14,462.17 2.59%

HANG SENG 22,704.50 22,834.68 22,836.52 22,953.76 22,965.86 1.11%

Beatriz Fougo

US TREASURY YIELDS

CURRENCIES

FEP Finance Club; investing.com

COMMODITIES

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S&P 500 closes above 1,900 for first time

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.2% for the

week, closing on Friday above 1,900 for the first time.

On Wednesday, Federal Reserve signaled interest

rates would remain low for the foreseeable future. In a

week with few economic reports, highlights for Friday

report saying Sales of new U.S. homes climbed in April

for the first time in three months, allaying concerns of

an extended setback in the residential real-estate

market. The 6.4% increase to a 433,000 annualized

rate was the biggest in six months and above all

expectations. Finally, on Thursday it was reported that

existing home sales increased 1.3% to an annual rate of

4.65 million units, marking the second increase in sales

in nine months.

Employment data released in Latin

America

Brazilian and Mexican unemployment rates were

below expectations last month. Brazil's non-seasonally-

adjusted jobless rate fell to 4.9%, from 5.0% in March,

while in Mexico it rose to a seasonally adjusted annual

rate of 4.84%, from 4.80% in the preceding month.

Besides, Argentinian unemployment rate rose more

than expected to a seasonally adjusted 7.1%, from a

reading of 6.4%. Moreover, Mexican gross domestic

product expanded 1.8% in the first quarter, from the

year earlier, compared with a median estimate for

2.1% growth.

Oil rises after inventories tumbled

Oil ended the week gaining, after crude supplies

dropped over the week, according to data from the

Energy Information Administration, USA. Prices also

advanced as violence flared ahead of Ukraine’s May 25

presidential election and unrest continued in Libya.

Moreover, natural gas prices fell after a weekly U.S.

supply report revealed that inventories rose more

than expected. On the softs front, corn dropped over

the week as beneficial weather in the U.S. Midwest

aided planting progress. In what concerns metals,

copper prices rose 0.67%, or 2.0 cents a pound, amid

speculation demand from China will increase in the

near-term. Finally, gold futures slipped lower, as

Thursday's globally upbeat U.S. economic reports

continued to lend support to the U.S. dollar.

SPOTLIGHT

INDEXES PERFORMANCE

U.S. New Home Sales (in thousands)



Financial Markets | [email protected]|www.facebook.com/FEPFinanceClub

José Silva João Fernandes


Pedro Santos Ana Reis Pratik Ashok

FEP Finance Club; Google Finance

300

350

400

450

500

550


US 3M 0.025% 0.033% 0.030% 0.033% 0.033%

US 1Y 0.081% 0.079% 0.081% 0.081% 0.081%

US 10 Y 2.545% 2.514% 2.534% 2.554% 2.536%

US 30 Y 3.388% 3.388% 3.414% 3.427% 3.398%

-0.25%

0.78%

2.18%

-1.50% Corn -2.35% Sugar

-0.12%

0.46%

0.67%

Crude Oil WTI

Natural Gas

Crude Oil Brent Copper

Silver

Gold


USD/JPY 101.470 101.270 101.440 101.780 101.970 0.44%

USD/YUAN 6.238 6.238 6.234 6.235 6.234 -0.03%

AUD/USD 0.933 0.923 0.923 0.923 0.923 -1.43%

GBP/USD 1.681 1.684 1.690 1.687 1.683 0.09%

USD/CHF 0.892 0.892 0.893 0.895 0.895 0.31%

USD/CAD 1.087 1.091 1.092 1.089 1.086 -0.03%


S&P 500 1,884.66 1,867.72 1,888.03 1,892.49 1,900.53 1.21%

DJIA 16,511.86 16,374.31 16,533.06 16,543.08 16,606.27 0.70%

NQ 100 3,615.62 3,600.31 3,635.61 3,650.86 3,677.33 2.51%

S&P Lac 40 3,818.49 3,762.57 3,765.84 3,787.08 3,771.45 -2.01%

Documents

Market Research May 19_May 23