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Market Potential Assessment for Alternative
Fuels in Connecticut
Findings and next steps for the Connecticut
Green Bank
Nick Nigro, Atlas Public Policy
October 6, 2016
• DC-based policy tech firm started in
2015
• Mission: equip businesses and
policymakers to make strategic,
informed decisions through the
greater use of technology that
interprets publicly available
information
October 6, 2016Market Potential Assessment for Alt Fuels in CT 2
About Atlas Public Policy
Atlas Key Focus Areas
• Access: Collect and disseminate
publicly available information for free.
• Interpret: Develop open-source apps
to spur insights and conduct analyses.
• Empower: Strengthen policymakers,
businesses, and non-profits' ability to
meet emerging challenges and identify
and seize opportunities.
• Available free at www.ctgreenbank.com/about-us/studies-and-reports
• Comprehensive data collection effort
• Summary of transportation sector in Connecticut• State energy and climate goals
• State of play for conventional and alternative fuel vehicles
• Market potential assessment of alternative fuels• Near-term market feasibility
• Environmental performance
• Cost effectiveness
• Local economic impact
• Conclusions and next steps
October 6, 2016Market Potential Assessment for Alt Fuels in CT 3
Study Overview
• Electric vehicles are best option for state to meet its goals
• Automaker investments will introduce variety of EVs in near term
• Current policy framework in CT supports EV adoption
• EVs can achieve net cost savings over gasoline vehicles & provide local economic boost
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Near-Term Forecast of Fuel Prices
Diesel Prices, U.S. Average
Gasoline Prices, East Coast
Residential Electricity Prices, New England
October 6, 2016Market Potential Assessment for Alt Fuels in CT 4
Study Conclusions
Stable fuel prices, technological advances, and zero emissions combine to cost-effectively
decarbonize transportation
• Compare multiple datasets at once• Create compelling visualizations with Microsoft Power BI and Excel
• Time series (monthly, yearly) & geolocation (ZIP code)
• Current datasets available• Monthly EV sales
• Alternative fuel/charging stations1,2
• Monthly gasoline & annual electricity prices1,2
• Annual vehicle miles traveled1
• Policies & programs (e.g., CHEAPR)
• U.S. Census Bureau demographics1,2
• Solar installations1,2
1 Publicly available dataset accessed through web API2 Multi-state data available
October 6, 2016Market Potential Assessment for Alt Fuels in CT 5
Relational Database for Connecticut
October 6, 2016 6
EV and Charging Terminology
• Plug-in electric vehicle (EV)• Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV): all-electric car only powered by batteries
• Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) or Extended Range Electric Vehicle (EREV): vehicle that can be powered by either batteries, a gasoline engine, or both
• Charging Levels
Market Potential Assessment for Alt Fuels in CT
Low – AC 120 V
"AC" LEVEL 1
• Uses standard outlet
• Power requirements similar to a toaster
• Up to 1.4 kilowatts
• Can use existing power outlets resulting in no cost installation
• Charging rate: 3-5 miles per hour
Medium – AC 240 V
“AC” LEVEL 2
• Requires high-voltage circuit
• Power requirements similar to an electric clothes dryer
• Up to 19.2 kilowatts
• Equipment & installation costs vary widely (~$6,500 in public and ~$2,000 at home)
• Charging rate: 12-75 miles per hour
High – DC Fast Charge
“DC” LEVEL 2
• Power requirements are up to max power for 15 homes
• Up to 90 kilowatts
• Currently, three systems used (CHAdeMO, SAE Combo, Tesla)
• Can have very high equipment & installation costs ( up to $90,000)
• Charging rate: 100-300 miles per hour
October 6, 2016 7
State of Play Summary
• Transportation is largest source of emissions in CT (40%)
• Current federal policy and state programs help, but not enough
• State expected to have 3x more transportation emissions in 2050 than its long-term
climate goal
• Light-duty vehicles dominate CT market
• 95% of vehicle stock, 70% of energy use
• 10 alternative fuel options for vehicles
• Plug-in electric vehicles most widely available alternative fuel vehicle
Market Potential Assessment for Alt Fuels in CT
Near-Term Market Feasibility
Market Potential Assessment for Alt Fuels in CT
Vehicle Type Alternative Fuel Key Factors
Passenger Vehicle
Electricity ZEV Program participation
Vehicle incentives
Available charging
infrastructure
Medium- and Heavy-duty Vehicles
Renewable Diesel
Drop-in fuel
Cost effective compared to
diesel
Limited supply
8October 6, 2016
• EV sales resilient in
period of low gas prices
• Vehicles concentrated in
southwest of state but
deployment throughout
• DC fast charging
infrastructure not
widespread
October 6, 2016Market Potential Assessment for Alt Fuels in CT 9
EV Market in Connecticut
October 6, 2016 10
EV Market in Connecticut
Market Potential Assessment for Alt Fuels in CT
• Program began issuing rebates in May of 2015
• Provided about $2m towards EV purchases so far
• 568 PHEVs and 284 BEVs
• 15 vehicles, mostly small and mid-size vehicles
October 6, 2016Market Potential Assessment for Alt Fuels in CT 11
EV Market in Connecticut
• 42 DC fast
charging
locations
• Many areas
inaccessible for
BEV drivers
relying on DC
fast charging
October 6, 2016Market Potential Assessment for Alt Fuels in CT 12
EV Market in Connecticut
Expected Near-Term Availability in CT
Vehicle
Class
Vehicle Type
Bio
gas or Lan
dfill
Gas to
RN
G
Bio
die
sel (B
10
0)
or E8
5
Re
new
able
Die
sel
Electricity
Pro
pan
e
CN
G
LNG
Hyd
roge
n
(Gase
ou
s)
Light-
Du
ty
Passenger Cars
Light Trucks
Me
diu
m-
& H
eavy-
Du
ty
Beverage, Dump, Tow, Utility,
Refrigerated Van
Box Van, School Bus, Step Van
Concrete Mixer, Trash
Tractor Trailer
Transit Bus
Market Potential Assessment for Alt Fuels in CT
Green = widely available. Orange = limited availability/demonstrations only. Red = no availability.
13October 6, 2016
Environmental Performance
Market Potential Assessment for Alt Fuels in CT
Vehicle Type Alternative Fuel Key Factors
Passenger Vehicle
Electricity, Hydrogen Greatest emission
reduction potential
Requires low-carbon
feedstocks
Medium- and Heavy-duty Vehicles
RNG from landfills and dairy farms
Greatest emission
reduction potential
Displaces emissions
14October 6, 2016
October 6, 2016 15
Environmental Performance of Passenger Vehicles
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40
Gasoline
E85
Hydrogen
Electricity
Fuel Mix
Greenhouse Gas Emissions (kilograms per mile)
Low High
Market Potential Assessment for Alt Fuels in CT
Cost Effectiveness
Market Potential Assessment for Alt Fuels in CT
Vehicle Type Alternative Fuel Key Factors
Passenger Vehicle
Electricity All-electric vehicles have lower
abatement costs than social
cost of carbon without vehicle
incentives and with solar
incentives
Residential solar is least cost
option with incentives
Delivery Trucks, Tractor-Trailers
Electricity (delivery trucks), Biodiesel (delivery trucks, tractor trailers)
Electric delivery trucks cost less
than diesel trucks
Biodiesel trucks have lower
abatement costs than social
cost of carbon
16October 6, 2016
October 6, 2016 17
Discounted Lifetime Cost of Passenger Vehicles
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Cu
mu
lati
ve C
ost
s
Year of Ownership
Chevrolet Cruze
Nissan LEAF (24 kWh)
Nissan LEAF (24 kWh, residential solar)
Nissan LEAF (24 kWh w/incentives)
Nissan LEAF (24 kWh, residential solar w/incentives)
Chevrolet Volt
Chevrolet Volt (w/incentives)
E85 Car
Toyota Mirai
Toyota Mirai (w/incentives)
Market Potential Assessment for Alt Fuels in CT
$62
$68
$64
$57
$52
$75
$64
$69
$121
$106
$0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140
Chevrolet Cruze
Nissan LEAF (24 kWh)
Nissan LEAF (24 kWh, residential solar)
Nissan LEAF (24 kWh, w/incentives)
Nissan LEAF (24 kWh, residential solarw/incentives)
Chevrolet Volt
Chevrolet Volt (w/incentives)
E85 Car
Toyota Mirai
Toyota Mirai (w/incentives)
ThousandsTotal Discounted Cost
$0.11
$0.03
-$0.10
-$3.01
$0.27
$0.03
$0.15
$2.49
$1.82
-$2.00 -$1.00 $0.00 $1.00 $2.00
Chevrolet Cruze
Nissan LEAF (24 kWh)
Nissan LEAF (24 kWh, residential solar)
Nissan LEAF (24 kWh, w/incentives)
Nissan LEAF (24 kWh, residential solarw/incentives)
Chevrolet Volt
Chevrolet Volt (w/incentives)
E85 Car
Toyota Mirai
Toyota Mirai (w/incentives)
Thousands
Greenhouse Gas Abatement Cost ($/Metric Ton CO2)
October 6, 2016Market Potential Assessment for Alt Fuels in CT 18
Passenger Vehicle Discounted Lifetime Cost and Abatement Cost
Local Economic Impact
Market Potential Assessment for Alt Fuels in CT
Vehicle Type Alternative Fuel Key Factors
Passenger Vehicle
Electricity Sizable power generation capacity keep transportation
spending in state’s economy
Federal funds exist to support plug-in electric vehicles and
charging infrastructure
Electric vehicles can achieve a net costs savings over gasoline
vehicles
Medium- and Heavy-duty Vehicles
Biodiesel trucks Existing capacity to produce biodiesel and federal tax credit
make it best option
CNG could be attractive if oil prices recover to levels seen
before summer of 2014
Large portion of commercially-generated waste cooking oil is
currently being used for transportation fuel (biodiesel) or
heating oil.
Potential to use residentially-generated waste cooking oil for
biodiesel.
19October 6, 2016
October 6, 2016 20
Expected Effects from Increased Discretionary Funds
Market Potential Assessment for Alt Fuels in CT
Vehicle Alternative Fuel State Economic Impact from Cost Savings
Passenger Car Electricity Positive
Medium-Duty Delivery Truck Electricity Positive
Medium-Duty Delivery Truck Biodiesel (B100) Neutral
Heavy-Duty Tractor Trailer Biodiesel (B100) Neutral
Passenger Car E85 Negative
Passenger Car Hydrogen Negative
Medium-Duty Delivery Truck CNG Negative
Heavy-Duty Tractor Trailer Electricity Negative
Heavy-Duty Tractor Trailer CNG Negative
• Electric vehicles are best option for state to meet its goals
• Automaker investments will introduce variety of EVs in near term
• Current policy framework in CT supports EV adoption
• EVs can achieve net cost savings over gasoline vehicles & provide local economic boost
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Near-Term Forecast of Fuel Prices
Diesel Prices, U.S. Average
Gasoline Prices, East Coast
Residential Electricity Prices, New England
October 6, 2016Market Potential Assessment for Alt Fuels in CT 21
Study Conclusions
Stable fuel prices, technological advances, and zero emissions combine to cost-effectively
decarbonize transportation
October 6, 2016 22
Next steps for Green Bank
• Attempt to mirror success of other programs
• Significant growth in cleantech deployment leading to decreased public investment
• Identified four promising concepts
• The pairing of electric vehicles and residential solar photovoltaic systems
• Electric shared-use mobility solutions
• Advanced publicly available EV charging infrastructure
• Electrification of the transit fleet
Market Potential Assessment for Alt Fuels in CT
October 6, 2016 23
Transportation Electrification Toolkit
Key Enabling Technologies and Business Models
Barriers addressed
Role of the CTGB, other public agencies, and the private sector
Metrics for program evaluation
Case Studies from Outside Connecticut
Summary
Target market
Strategy to address barriers
Role of government & private capital
Expected or actual results
Connecticut Community Spotlight
Monthly blog-style short stories
Highlight transportation electrification opportunities in
Connecticut communities
Use data dashboards to educate audience
Market Potential Assessment for Alt Fuels in CT
Concept Summaries Objective, Target Locations, Deployment Barriers, Resource Library
Nick Nigro
October 6, 2016Market Potential Assessment for Alt Fuels in CT 24