Market Outlook 230712

7/31/2019 Market Outlook 230712

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Market Outlook July 23, 2012

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Market Outlook July 23, 2012

Dealers DiaryIndian markets are expected to open in the red tracking a weak opening in most of

the Asian m arkets. SG X N ifty is tradin g lo wer by 0 .9%.

US markets fell on friday due to concerns over Eurozone and the overall global

economy. The decline was also partly due to profit booking post the recent gains

on the stock market. Meanwhile, The eurozone finance ministers gave final

approval for a 100 bil l ion euro bailout deal for t roubled Spanish banks. The f irst

tranche is likely to be m ade availa ble by the end of this month.

Meanwhile, the Indian markets fell on Friday due to worries about the state of both

global and domestic economy. Insufficient rainfall in the monsoon continues to be a

han gover on the econom y as it could result in d rought an d stoke inflationary pressures.

Markets TodayThe trend d eciding level for the day is 17 ,18 8 / 5,21 4 levels. If NIFTY trades above

this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally

up to 17 ,246 17,3 33 / 5,23 0 5,2 55 l evels. However, if NIFTY trades below

17,188 / 5,214 levels for the f irst half-an-hour of t rade then it may correct up to

17,100 17,042 / 5,189 5,173 levels.

Indices S2 S1 PIVO T R1 R2

SENSEX 17,04 2 17,100 17,188 17,246 17,333

NIFTY 5,173 5,189 5,214 5,230 5,255

New s Analysis RBI WG recomm endations on restructuring RBI releases guidelines on priority sector lending EGoM slashes Trai's base price for spectrum by 20% L&T forms JV with Mazagon DLF gets sharehold er ap proval to sell wind energy bu siness Ma ruti Suzuki annou nces lock out at Man esar pla nt RCom puts Flag Telecom IPO on ho ld MMRDA looking to impose two year ban on Simplex Infra 1Q FY20 13 Result Reviews Reliance Ind., Hin dustan Zinc, U ltratech C ement,

Asian Paints, Crompton Greaves, United Phosphorus, Bank of Maharashtra,

HT Media, Tata Sponge

1Q FY20 13 Result Previews HUL, L&T, Ca irn India, Idea, Dab ur, C olga te,Indian Bank, Tata Global

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (July 19, 2012)

` cr Purch Sale s N et M TD YTD

FII 2 ,031 1,816 215 9,028 49,990

MFs 495 475 20 (1 ,916) (8 ,076)

FII Derivatives (July20, 2012)` cr Purch Sales N et O pen Interest

Index Futures 1,244 1,451 (207) 16,044

Stock Futures 2,771 2,903 (132) 27,472

Gainers / Losers

G ainers Losers

C om pa ny Price (` ) chg (%) C om pa ny Price (` ) chg (%)

Tata Comm 260 5 .8 Indiabulls Fin 238 (4.7)

JPIN FRATEC 57 4 .6 PTC India 59 (3.1)

JUBL FO O D 1,265 4 .2 Torrent Power 16 6 (2.8)

O pto Circuits 161 3 .7 Kotak Mah Bank 563 (2.7)

Aditya Bir la N uv 811 3 .3 Sun TV Network 288 (2.7)

D om estic Indices C hg (%) (Pts) (Close)

BSE Sensex (0.7) (120.4) 17,158

Nif ty (0.7) (37.6) 5 ,205

MID CAP (0.2) (14.1) 6 ,184

SMALL CAP (0.1) (7.1) 6,675

BSE H C (0.6) (44.9) 6 ,989

BSE PSU (0.6) (43.5) 7 ,247

BANKEX (1.3) (156.0) 12,042

AUTO 0 .3 25.1 9,162

M ETAL 0 .1 13.0 10,674

O IL & GAS (0.7) (57.5) 8 ,027

BSE IT (0.1) (4.9) 5,321

G lobal Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (C lose)

Dow Jones 0 .3 34.7 12,943

NASDAQ 0 .8 23.3 2,966

FTSE (0.5) (29.1) 5 ,685

Nikkei (1.4) (125.7) 8 ,670

Hang Seng 0 .4 81.8 19,641

Stra its Tim es (0.4) (13.4) 3 ,016

Shanghai Com (0.7) (16.2) 2 ,169

Indian ADRs Chg (%) (Pts) (C lose)

INFY (1.5) (0.6) $39.5

WIT (2.6) (0.2) $8.1

IBN (3.3) (1.2) $33.9

H DB (2.3) (0.8) $33.5

Advance s / D eclines BSE N SE

Advances 1,165 514

Decl ines 1,659 953

Unchanged 120 77

Volumes (` cr)

BSE 1,728

NSE 8,441


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Market OutlookJuly 23, 2012

RBI WG recommendat ions on restructuring

RBIs working group on restructuring guidelines has submitted its

recommendations. As per the recommendations, banks would have to increase

provisioning requirement on existing standard restructured loans from present 2%

to 5% in a phased manner over a period of two years. For new standard

restructuring the provision of 5 % would h ave to be mad e imm ediately.

After the initial period of two years, the group recommends that the RBI should do

away with the distinction between standard and impaired/ downgraded ( i.e. non-

perform ing) restructured loa ns in l ine with existing i nternational prudential practice.

O ne way to do this would be to downgr ade the loan on e notch in that case, a

standard loan would become sub-standard. This would imply an increase in the

provisioning requirement from 5% to 15% (which is the current provisioning

requirement for sub-stand ard N PAs). Another way to do this could be to create another

asset classification, the provisioning for which would be somewhere between 5% and

15%.

If implemented in entirety, this would cause banks to make provisions right from the

beginning for anticipated losses (considering the current experience of most banks of

about 25-30% of restructured loans slipping into NPAs and considering about 50%

loss given default). But it is not clear if the provisioning requirement would continue to

go up fo r restructured loa ns as it does for N PAs (25% after 1 year when they are

classified as doubtful and so on), especially for the restructured loans with moratorium

during which period they cannot be upgraded.

Guidelines if and when implemented, would impact mid-PSU banks the most, with

an a verage PBT impa ct for FY20 13 E and FY201 4E of 5.2 % and 4. 4%, respectively.

Within the m id PSUs, Central Bank and IO B would b e worst affected owing to their

higher outstanding restructuring book. Least affected PSU bank would be SBI and

BOB, while there would be negligibl e impa ct on N ew Private banks. As of now ,

irrespective of prudential provisioning requirements, we are already building in higher

provisioning expenses for PSU banks, which incorporates the impact of slippages from

restructuring. However, if and when the recommendations are implemented, there

ma y be additional d ownside impact to our estimates.

The report also prescribes appropriate measures for strengthening the restructuring

process, such as increasing promoters contribution towards NPV losses, limiting

conversion from deb t to equity, etc. O ne of the other sugg estions in the report, which

needs further clarity, is that roll-over of short-term corporate loans should not be

permitted beyond 2-3 times. If implemented, this could impact several banks,

especially on the private sector side.


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Bank-wise PBT level impact of additiona l provisioning

Bank RestructuredBook as of

4 Q F Y 2 0 1 2

F Y 2 0 1 3 EPBT

AdditionalProvision @ 1. 5%

as % ofFY201 3 PBT

F Y 2 0 1 4 EPBT

AdditionalProvision @ 1.5 %

as % ofFY2014E PBT

C EN TBK 1 7 ,3 4 7 1 ,7 47 1 4 .9 2,4 6 3 10.6

IO B 1 2 ,6 4 1 2 ,0 33 9 .3 2 ,6 5 9 7.1

U C O BK 7 ,3 0 0 1 ,6 75 6 .5 1 ,9 8 3 5.5

O BC 9 ,5 1 0 2 ,3 07 6 .2 2 ,7 6 1 5.2

VIJAYA 2 ,9 3 9 7 71 5 .7 1,0 5 5 4.2

IN D BK 8 ,9 0 2 2 ,5 01 5 .3 2 ,8 1 3 4.7

BO I 1 7 ,5 7 4 5 ,0 61 5 .2 6 ,0 0 5 4.4

U N BK 1 1 ,8 7 9 3 ,4 80 5 .1 4 ,0 5 8 4.4

BO M 3 ,2 2 7 9 75 5 .0 1,1 2 2 4.3

C RPBK 7 ,5 3 9 2 ,2 82 5 .0 2 ,4 1 5 4.7

PN B 2 5 ,0 0 9 7 ,6 95 4 .9 8 ,7 4 9 4.3

AN D HBK 5 ,9 5 5 1 ,8 78 4 .8 2 ,1 0 0 4.3

SYN BK 6 ,2 0 0 2 ,0 73 4 .5 2 ,5 9 5 3.6

D EN ABK 3 ,4 1 0 1 ,1 79 4 .3 1 ,3 1 2 3.9IDBI 1 0 ,0 3 7 3 ,4 92 4 .3 4 ,5 6 5 3.3

U TDBK 3 ,1 0 6 1 ,0 90 4 .3 1 ,3 0 9 3.6

ALLBK 6 ,3 5 3 2 ,6 78 3 .6 3 ,0 7 1 3.1

BO B 1 5 ,0 8 4 7 ,5 53 3 .0 9 ,0 5 0 2.5

SBI 4 2 ,7 4 4 2 2 ,1 77 2 .9 2 5,9 4 2 2.5

FED BK 2 ,0 3 6 1 ,2 48 2 .4 1 ,4 5 2 2.1

C AN BK 7 ,8 9 6 5 ,1 55 2 .3 6 ,0 4 8 2.0

SIB 1 ,0 2 1 6 68 2 .3 7 0 6 2.2

AXSB 3 ,0 6 0 7 ,4 16 0 .6 9 ,0 4 4 0.5

ICICIBK 4 ,2 5 6 1 1 ,0 17 0 .6 1 3,2 4 3 0.5

YESBK 2 0 1 1 ,7 81 0 .2 2 ,2 3 7 0.1

H D FCBK 7 8 2 9 ,9 59 0 .1 1 2,5 2 0 0.1

Tota l 2 3 6 ,0 0 8 1 0 9 ,8 9 1 3 .2 1 3 1 ,2 7 7 2 . 7

PSU s La rge 7 4 ,8 9 7 3 1 ,8 7 7 3 .5 3 7 , 2 0 8 3 . 0

PSU s M id 1 3 4 ,8 7 9 3 9 ,1 9 5 5 .2 4 6 , 4 1 0 4 . 4

Pvt. N ew 8 ,2 9 9 3 0 ,1 7 3 0 .4 3 7 , 0 4 5 0 . 3

Pvt. O ld 1 7 ,9 3 3 8 ,6 4 6 3 .1 1 0 , 6 1 3 2 . 5

Source: Company data, Angel Research, Note: Restructured amounts in some cases might not be

comparable bank-wise on account of l imi tat ion of avai lable informat ion regarding report ing of

restructured ad vances (account-wise/ borro wer-wise, sanct ioned b asis/ disbursed basis). Also,

Restructured boo k disclosures include bot h standa rd a nd NPA amounts.

RBI releases guidelines on priori ty sector lending

RBI has come out with revised guidelines on Priority sector lending targets. The

guidelines incorporate some of the easier to achieve recommendations of the Nair

com m ittee while leaving ou t the more stringent on es.

The focus of the revised guidelines is mostly on increasing the direct agriculture

lending to individuals, self help groups and Joint liability groups and to increase

the proportion of direct lending by banks to priority sectors to meet their priority

sector targets as suggested by the Nair committee. However, the RBI has not

accepted the more stringent recommendations of the Nair committee which


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included removal of distinction between direct and indirect lending and creation of

a sub target for small and marginal farmers (9% of ANBC to be achieved in stages

by 2015-16). This is highly positive for private banks which otherwise would have

faced diff i culties in achieving this sub target due to their lower ru ral p resence.

The overall target under priority sector lending has been retained at 40% of

Adjusted Net Bank Credit (ANBC). The targets under both direct and indirectagriculture have also been retained at 13.5% and 4.5% of the ANBC, respectively.

Foreign banks having less than 20 branches will have to continue to meet the 32%

PSL target without any requirements of meeting the sub targets. However, foreign

banks having more than 20 or more branches wil l be brought on par with

domestic banks for priority sector targets in a phased manner over a maximum

period of 5 years (starting April 1, 2013).

Another major revision is that investments in securitized assets, outright purchase

of lo ans and a ssignm ents will onl y be eligible for cla ssification under p riority sector

lending if the interest rates charged to the customer by the originating entity does

not exceed 8% of the Base rate of the bank. The guideline aims at increasing the

direct lending by banks to achieve their priority sector targets as only those loansdisbursed at below 1 8% (considering b ase rate of 1 0%) by NBFCs/ HFCs/ MFIs to

priority sectors would now qualify for priority sector lending, which in our view,

wou ld lead to exclusion o f agri/ individu al loans by MFIs to farmers/ SHG s where

the interest rates are generally on the higher side.

EGoM slashes Trai 's base pr ice for spectrum by 20%

The EG oM on telecom , headed by Ho me M inister P. Chidam baram , has decided

to recommend a reduction in the reserve price for the 2G spectrum auction

suggested by Trai. It is understood to have recommended a price of ` 14,000-

16,000cr for 5MHz of pan-India spectrum. This amounts to a reduct ion of morethan 20% from the base price of ` 18,110cr suggested by the Trai. It means the

base price for one MHz will be ` 2,800-3,200cr, instead of the Trai

recommendation of ` 3,622cr. A final decision on the price will be taken by the

Cabinet, expected to meet next week. The move provides partial relief to GSM

operators, who have been crit ical of the Trai recommendations, saying they would

lead to a substantial hike in tariffs at an average of ` 0.44-0 .60 /m in .

The EGoM has favored the Trai recommendation of permitting deferred payment

by operators for the spectrum. Trai's previously proposal that winners pay only

33% of the bid amount upfront, followed by a two-year morator ium, with the

remaining m oney to be paid in 1 0 equa l installments annually. O n spectrum

usage charges, the EGoM has not accepted the regulators 3% recommendationand is understood to ha ve favored the current charges of 3- 6%.

No decision has been taken on a proposal to charge incumbent operators a one-

time fee for their existing 2G airwave holdings, based on a price to be determined

by auction. W e m aintain our N eutral view on the overall telecom sector.


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L&T forms JV wi th Mazagon

As per m edia repo rts, Larsen an d Toubr o (L&T) and Pipavav D efence on Saturda y

signed two separate deals with the country's biggest naval shipyard, Mazagon

Dock, to produce equipment for the defence sector. According to the new joint

venture signed, Mazagon will partner L&T to manufacture submarines for the navy

while the venture with Pipavav will make frigates, destroyers and aircraft carriers.The deal with L&T comes nearly a year after L&T complained to the defence

ministry, alleging foul play in the selection of Pipavav Defence as the sole joint

venture partner, forcing the government to put the joint venture on hold. This is

positive for L&T as L&T Shipb uildin g ha s been struggling in recent times to receive

orders. O wing to the recent surge in stock price we recomm end Accumulate with a

SO TP target price of ` 1 5 5 3 .

DLF gets shareholder approval to sell wind energy business

As part of its exercise to reduce debt by selling noncore operations, DLF has got

shareholder approval to sell its Wind energy business. The company has wind-

turbine generator-based powers with installed capacities of 150 MW and 11.2

MW located at Kutch (Gujarat) and Gadag (Karnataka). Given the high debt levels

(Net Deb t to equity to 0 .7x) and unsatisfactory divestment of non core assets in the

past, we ma intain o ur neutral rating on the stock.

Maru ti Suzuki announces lock out a t Manesar p lant

Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) management has declared a lock out at its Manesar facility

which has been rocked by labor violence since July 18, 2012. The production at

the facility has been shut ever since the violence erupted at the facility which has

led to killing of Awanish Kumar Dev, general manager inside the plant facility.

Due to the violence at the Manesar plant, nearly hundred managers and

supervisors sustained serious and critical injuries. The workers also set fire to the

off ice wing an d the m ain gate of the plant.

While the production facilit ies at the plant remains closed, managements most

important concern is the safety and security of its supervisory and management

personnel. According to the management, unless the causes of the recent labor

problems are identif ied and appropriate corrective action is in place it would be

unsafe for supervisors and managers to resume work and therefore has no

intentions to resume produ ction in a hu rry.

Manesar facil ity which has a product ion capacity of 550 ,000 units/ annually

manufactures companys most desirable models Swift and Dzire, along with SX4and A Star. The company is losing out on ~ 1,80 0 units of daily product ion which

could potentially result in a revenue loss of ~ ` 100cr. We believe that any delay in

resuming production at the facility could result in serious implications for the

company. MSIL has already delayed the launched of it new 800cc new car which

was scheduled to be launched around the festival season of Diwali. At ` 1,145,

MSILs stock is trading at 12.6x FY2014E earnings. After the fall in the stock price

post the plant shut-down we have a Buy rating on the stock with a target price of

` 1 , 3 6 4 .


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RCom puts Flag Telecom IPO on hold

RCom has announced that the compa ny has put on hold the US$1-1 .5bn IPO of

its underseas cable uni t Flag Telecom in Singap ore, in the wa ke of ad verse ma rket

condition s. Accordin g to sources, the IPO was put on ho ld on a da y when

institutional book building was to close. RCom was looking at listing Flag Telecom

through a Singapore business trust, Global Telecommunications Infrastructure

Trust (GTIT) on the Singapore stock exchange. GTI Trust owns four subsea cable

systems that carry internet traffic and data aro und the glob e.

The company had planned to use the proceeds from the Singapore listing of GTI

to pare some of its ` 35,839cr debts. Flag Telecom was acquired by the then

undivided Reliance Group for US$207mn (~ ` 1,000cr) in 2003. RCom has been

exploring various routes of raising funds, including selling stake in its telecom

tower arm Reliance Infratel, a move that will help the company retire a major

chunk o f debt on its books. W e m aintain our N eutral view on the stock.

MMRDA looking to impose two year ban on Simp lex Infra

As per media reports, the Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority

(MMRDA) has initiated the process of barring Simplex Infra from taking up the

agencys work for two years. The debarm ent process has been initiated as Sim plex

Infra had failed to observe safety norms in the Lalbaug Flyover project from which

a concrete slab fell in April 2012. There have been several incidents of mishaps at

sites where the company has or is carrying out work. The latest one being on the

Eastern Freeway, that Simplex is constructing, collapsed on Thursday 12 th July

2012, killing one person and injuring seven. If a ban for two years is imposed by

MMRDA or a penalty is levied on Simplex Infra it would be negative for the

company. W e m aintain our Buy recomm enda tion on the stock with a target priceof ` 2 6 5 .

Result Reviews

Reliance Industries (CMP: ` 723, TP :-, upside :-)

Relian ce Industries (RIL) repor ted better than expected results for 1Q FY20 13 . N et

sales increased by 13.4% yoy to ` 91,8 75cr, above our est imate of ` 80,884cr . Net

sales growth wa s mainly driven by Petrochemicals segm ent (+ 18 .9% yoy to

` 21,83 9cr) and Ref ining segment (+ 15.9% yoy to ` 85,383cr). RILs EBITDA

decreased by 32.0% yoy to ` 6,747cr on account of decrease in profits from all

three main segments. Petrochemical segment EBIT decreased 20.7% yoy to

` 1,756cr, Refining segment EBIT decreased 32.8% yoy to ` 2,151cr and Oi l and

Gas segment EBIT decreased 34.0% yoy to ` 972cr during the quarter. Gross

ref ining margins stood at US$7.6/ bbl in 1Q FY20 13 com pared to US$1 0.3/ bbl in

1Q FY20 12 . Product ion from KG-D6 declined by 33.1% yoy to 10 4.4bcf. O therincome increased 76.6% yoy to ` 1,90 4cr. Tax rate stood at 17 .7% in 1Q FY2013

(lower than our estimate), com pared to 22 .1% in 1Q FY20 12. N et profit decreased

by 21 .0% yoy to ` 4,473cr, above our estimate of ` 4,077cr .


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RIL is planning to submit Revised Field Development Plan for D1 D3 blocks in

order to ma ximize gas recovery. Further, RIL is preparing developm ent plan based

on an integra ted concept to expedite the developm ent proj ects of other discoveries

(scheduled for subm ission during 3Q FY20 13 ). RILs debt stood at ` 73,213cr and

cash & equivalents stood at ` 70,732cr as on June 30, 2012. We maintain our

N eutral rating on the stock.

Y/ E Sales O PM PAT EPS RO E P/E P/ BV EV/ EBITD A EV/ Sales

March (` cr) (%) (` cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2013E 316,40 4 11.2 21,210 64.8 11.9 11.2 1 .2 6 .2 0 .7

FY2014E 319,11 9 12.0 22,799 69.7 11.6 10.4 1 .0 5 .5 0 .7

Hindustan Zinc (CMP: 119/ TP: 141/ Upside: 18%)

For 1Q FY20 13 , Hind ustan Zinc s (HZL) bottom-line was above our expectations

due to hig her-than- expected other incom e and lo wer-than-expected tax rate. HZLs

net revenue decreased b y 12 .3% yoy to ` 2,713cr (below our estimate of ` 2,939cr)

mainly due to decrease in realizations and decrease in zinc segment sales. Zinc

product ion volumes declined 16.0% yoy to 161kt due to lower product ion from

Rampura Agucha mines (in line with companys guidance). Nevertheless, lead

production volumes grew by 91.0% yoy to 31kt and silver production volumes

grew 75.0% yoy to 82kt due to higher production from Sindesur Khurd mine and

stabilization of new lead an d silver capacities. Ho wever, EBITDA ma rgin contracted

by 378bp yoy (against our expectat ion of 450pb) to 52.7% mainly on account of

lower zinc-lead realizations coupled with cost increases and EBITDA d ecreased by

10.3% yoy to ` 1,429cr. Further, other income rose by 61.6% yoy to ` 574cr while

tax rate was lower at 13.0% in 1Q FY2013 (17.1% in 1Q FY201 2). Hence, net

profit beat ou r estima te of ` 1,37 7cr and grew by 5 .8% yoy to ` 1,581cr .

As of June 30, 2012, HZL had a cash and equivalents of ` 19,404cr (` 46/share).

We maintain our positive stance on the stock and recommend Buy on the stock

with a target price of ` 141.


March (` cr) (%) (` cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2013E 12,404 51.9 5 ,901 14.0 20.1 8 .6 1 .6 4 .4 2 .3

FY2014E 13,538 52.7 6 ,463 15.3 18.7 7 .8 1 .4 3 .2 1 .7

UltraTech Cement (CMP: ` 1,567/ TP: - / Upside: - %)

Ultratech Cement reported a 16.2% yoy growth in its net sales to ` 5,075cr. The

top-line growth was driven by better yoy realization. The domestic sale volume of

grey cement and clinker rose by 4.8% yoy to 9.94mn tonnes. Sale volume of white

cement went up by 16.6 % yoy to 2.2 5 la kh tonnes. The compa nys O PM fell by

217bp yoy to 25.7%, due to increase in raw material and freight and forwarding

costs both on a yoy and qoq basis. Freight charges were higher on account of

higher diesel costs and increase in railway freight fares in the budget. Bottom-line

rose by 13. 9% yoy to ` 778cr . W e m aintain our neutral view on the stock.


8/26




March (` cr) (%) (` cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2013E 19,938 21.7 2 ,456 89.6 17.7 17.4 2 .9 9 .2 160

FY2014E 22,460 22.9 2 ,870 104.7 17.9 14.8 2 .5 8 .2

Note: *computed on TTM basis

Asian Pain ts (CMP: `3,724 / TP: - / Upside: - %)

For 1Q FY20 13 , Asian Paints (APL) posted a below-than estimated perform ance

both on the top-l ine and bottom-line front. The companys top l ine grew by 12.5%

yoy to ` 2,539cr as against the estimated 2,627cr. The Auto and other Industrial

business saw some pressure due to subdued demand. Polit ical events and macro

economic uncertainty in some countries continued to affect international

perform ance. O PM rema ined flat at 17 .2%. Although , the prices of raw ma terials

declined during the quarter, depreciation of INR vs USD neutralized the benefit

considerably. Net profit grew by 9.4% yoy to ` 288cr . We continue to remain

neutral on the stock.


March (` cr) (%) (` cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2013E 11,423 16.3 1 ,188 123.9 38.1 30.1 10.2 18.9 3 .1

FY2014E 13,309 16.3 1 ,410 147.0 35.5 25.3 8 .0 16.1 2 .6

Crompton Greaves (CMP: ` 130, TP: ` 142: Accumu late)

Crom pton G reaves reported disappoin t ing results for 1Q FY2013 as margins

remain subdued and came in below expectat ions. CGs revenue came in at

` 2,811cr, growing 15.3% yoy and beating our expectations by 7.8%, however it

disappointed on the margin front with EBITDA margins coming in at 5.9% against7.5% last year. International operations continue to be a drag on profitability.

Duri ng the quar ter, international subsidiaries contributed 41 % to total revenues but

contributed only 5% to consolidated EBITDA with an EBITDA margin of 1%. CGs

domestic (standalone) margins also disappointed as contribution of higher margin

exports revenue was lower during the quarter. Consolidation of European

operations remains key to CGs improving profitability, which should start getting

reflected over the next few quarters as CG undertakes right sizing exercise for its

Belgium operations. CGs PAT came in at ` 86 cr aga inst ou r expectations of ` 95cr,

however we note that the company has changed its accounting policy whereby the

company would be doing an annual impairment test ing for goodwill instead of

current practice of amortization, thus slightly overstating PAT when compared to

last year. We see CGs profitability improving over the coming quarters but given

the recent run up in its share price we maintain accumulate on the stock with a

target price of ` 142.


March (` cr) (%) (` cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2013E 12 ,451 5 .5 512 8 .0 13 .9 16 .3 2 .2 9 .2 0 .7

FY2014E 14 ,265 6 .1 607 9 .5 14 .9 13 .7 1 .9 7 .3 0 .6


9/26



Uni ted Phosphorus (CMP: `114, TP: ` 183: Buy)

United Phosphorus Limited (UPL) reported consol revenues of ` 2,180cr, registering

a gro wth of 19 .7% yoy. Volumes contributed 4% to gro wth while price increased by

5% with the balance 11% being contributed by favorable impact of exchange.

According to the regions, the main growth came in from US where revenues

increased by 32 .1%. India reported revenue grow th of 16.0 % while RO W revenuesincreased by 15 .2%. O n the other hand, Europ e registered a 12% growth.

O n the operating front, comp any reported an EBITDA Margin of 15 .9%, V/ s

16.4% during the last corresponding period, on account of 39.0% yoy rise in other

expenditure and 38 .7%yoy rise in em ployee expenses. C onsequently the N et Profits

cam e in at Rs203cr, registering a grow th of 10 .1%.

Going forward, the Management has reaffirmed its guidance of maintain EBITDA

margins of 18-20%. At current valuations the stock is valued at 6.7xFY2014E

earnings, which is attractive. Though we would be reviewing our numbers, but at

current juncture m aintain a buy with a target of ` 1 8 3 .

Y/ E Sales O PM PAT EPS RO E P/E P/ BV EV/ EBITD A EV/ SalesMarch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2013E 8,191 16.5 793 17.2 17.6 7 .2 1 .2 5 .3 0 .9

FY2014E 8,764 16.5 852 18.4 16.3 6 .7 1 .0 4 .6 0 .8

Bank of M aha rashtra- (CMP: ` 48/ TP: Under review)

During 1 Q FY201 3, Bank of Maha rashtra reported 15.1% growth in net prof it to

` 14 0cr. N et profit growth was main ly aided by tax write-ba ck of ` 16cr compared

to tax expense of ` 67 cr in 1Q FY20 12 , as the bank witnessed a PBT level earnin gs

decline of 34.8% yoy, mainly on back of higher provisioning expenses to the tune

of 41 .1% yoy.

The bank reported healthy growth in its business, with advances witnessing a

growth of 22.7% yoy and deposits registering a growth of 17.4% yoy. CASA

deposits remained flat on a sequential basis, as 3.6% qoq growth witnessed in

saving deposits was fully offset by 10.1% sequential decline registered in cyclical

current deposits. Consequently CASA ratio for the bank declined on a sequential

basis by 175 bp to 3 9.6%. The reported N IMs for the ban k declined by 26 bp q oq

to 2.9% due to 19bp sequent ial decline in the yield on funds and 7bp qoq

increase in costs of funds. Fee income for the bank registered a yoy decline of

29.0% to ` 96 cr. O n the asset quality front, higher write-offs during the qua rter

(` 288cr in 1Q FY201 3 compared to ` 140cr in 4Q FY201 2 and average of ` 93cr

since 1Q FY20 11 ) resulted in higher n et NPA ratio from 0.8 % to 1.0 %. The

slippage ra t io for the quarter remained m uch above the comfortable 1-1 .5% levels

at 3.1 %. The bank s PCR declined b y 103 bp to 79 .3%. At CMP, the stock trades at

at 0.6x FY2014E ABV. The stock rating is currently under review.

Y/ E O p. Inc N IM PAT EPS ABV RO A RO E P/ E P/ ABV

March (` cr) (%) (` cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2013E 3,506 3.2 65 9 10.2 71.6 0 .6 15.3 4 .8 0 .7

FY2014E 3,925 3.2 75 8 11.9 80.6 0 .7 15.8 4 .1 0 .6


10/26



HT Media (CMP: ` 93 /TP: Under review / Upside: - %)

HT Media reported weak performance in 1Q FY20 13 . Top-line remained f lat yoy at

490cr due to 3.1% yoy decline in advertising revenues to ` 373cr which was

partially offset by healthy 8.3% yoy rise in circulation revenue to ` 53cr. The

prim ary reason for decline in a d revenues can be attributed to decline in ad rates.

O n the operating front, EBITDA ma rgin declined by 45 4b p yoy to 13 .7%. In past

few quarters, the company is experiencing margin pressure due to sluggish ad

revenue growth on account of GDP slowdown and increase in newsprint costs in

INR terms due to depreciating rupee. The EBITDA margin has actually expanded

by 387bp qoq due to cost rationalization measures undertaken by the company.

N et Profit has declined by 21 .0% yoy to ` 41cr . Currently, we have a BUY rating on

the stock with the target price under review.

Y/ E Sa les O PM PAT EPS RO E P/ E P/ BV EV/ EBITD A EV/ Sa les

March (` cr) (%) (` cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2 01 3E 2,22 4 16.6 20 2 8 .6 1 3 .0 1 0.6 1 .3 3 .3 0 .5

FY2 01 4E 2,50 9 17.2 25 3 1 0 .8 1 4 .4 8 .4 1 .1 2 .4 0 .4

Tata Sponge Iron (CMP 343, TP: ` 424, Upside: 24%)

For 1Q FY20 1 3, TSIL s repo rted better tha n expected results. Revenue grew by a

strong 29.7% yoy to ` 189 cr, 10.3% higher than our expectat ion of ` 171cr due to

better sales volume and increased realization of sponge iron. However, EBITDA

margin contracted by 82bp on a yoy basis to 21.9% on account of higher raw

m aterial costs (as percentage of n et sales) as comp ared to same qu arter last year.

Net profit increased by a strong 31.9% yoy from ` 23cr to ` 30cr currently and 44 %

higher than our expectation of ` 21 cr. Forest clearance for the Talcher coal blo ck is

still pending. Tata Steel, an associate company has announced an open offer tothe shareholders of TSIL to acquire majority stake in the company. If the offer is

successful, there might be a change in TSILs business model from being a

merchant player to a backward integrated company for Tata Steel. We maintain

our Buy recommendation on the stock with a target price of ` 424 based on a

target P/ B of 0.9 x for FY20 1 4 E.


March (` cr) (%) (` cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2013E 787 1 6.2 90 58.5 30.0 5 .9 0 .8 2 .0 0 .3

FY2014E 837 17.5 103 66.9 32.8 5 .1 0 .7 1 .2 0 .2


11/26



Result Previews

HUL (CMP: `446 / TP: - / Upside: - %)

HUL is slated to announce its 1QFY13 results. We expect 14.3% yoy growth in

topline to `6,289cr aided by volume and value growth. The companys OPM is

expected to post a marginal expansion of 37bp yoy to 12.7% due to combination

of lower raw material prices and recent price hikes. Net Profit is expected to grow

by 13.9% yoy to `714cr.

FY2013E 25,350 14.3 3,106 14.4 80.5 31.0 22.9 25.6 3.7

FY2014E 29,309 14.4 3,597 16.6 74.9 26.8 17.9 21.9 3.2

L&T (CMP: `1,390/TP: `1,553 /Upside: 12%)

We expect L&T to record revenue of `11,036cr, registering 16.4% yoy growth, for

1QFY2013. This growth can be attributed to the companys large order book

(~`1.4trillion). On the EBITDA front, we expect the companys margin to witness a

decline of 18bp yoy to 11.7%. We project net profit to come in at `819cr,

registering yoy growth of 9.8%.

At the CMP of `1,390, the stock is trading at 18.2x FY2014E earnings and 2.6x

FY2014E P/BV, on a standalone basis. We have used the sum-of-the-parts (SOTP)

methodology to value the company to capture all its business initiatives and

investments/stakes in the different businesses. Ascribing separate values to its

parent business on a P/E basis and investments in subsidiaries on P/E, P/BV and

mcap basis, our target price works out to `1,553.

FY2013E 59,559 12.1 4,369 70.8 16.1 19.6 2.9 13.1

FY2014E 69,089 11.5 4,720 76.5 15.3 18.2 2.6 11.9

Cairn India (CMP: `327/ TP: `372 / Upside: - 14%)

Cairn India is slated to report its 1QFY2013 results today. Cairn India's net sales

are expected to increase by 1.3% yoy to `3,761cr due to increase in volumes,

partially offset by lower crude oil realization. Its operating margin is expected to

decline by 300bps yoy to 83.0% and its bottom line is expected to decrease by

9.1% yoy to `2,479cr.

FY2013E 15,513 74.0 9,754 51.09 18.3 6.4 1.1 4.0 2.9

FY2014E 16,074 69.7 9,268 48.55 14.8 6.7 0.9 3.1 2.2


12/26



Idea Cellular(CMP: `82 / TP: - / Upside: -)

Idea C ellular i s slated to an nounce its 1Q FY20 13 results today. W e expect the

company to record revenue of ` 5,503cr, up 2.5% qoq. This is expected primarily

on the back of 1.0% qoq growth in MO U to 383m in and 1.4% qoq decline in

ARPM to ` 0.42/min. APRU is expected to decline marginally by 0.4% qoq to

`159 / mo nth. EBITDA m argin of the compan y is expected to inch up by 29 bp qoq

to 25.6%. PAT is expected to be at ` 218cr . W e m aintain N eutral rat ing on the

stock.

Y/ E Sales O PM PAT EPS RO E P/E P/ BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sale s

March (` cr) (%) (` cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2013E 23,209 26.2 1 ,086 3.3 7 .7 29 .7 2 .3 7 .1 1 .9

FY2014E 26,063 27.5 1 ,629 4.9 10.3 19.8 2 .0 5 .8 1 .6

Dabur (CMP: ` 1 1 8 / TP: - / Upside: - %)

Dab ur India i s slated to an nounce its 1Q FY20 13 results. We expect 12 .2% yoygrowth to ` 1,352 cr driven by volume growth due to increased footprint in rural

m arkets as well as international m arkets. The com panys O PM is expected to

expand by 352bp yoy to 17.7% due to softening of key input prices. Net Profit is

expected to grow by 40.6% yoy to ` 180cr . We maintain a neutral view on the

stock.


March (` cr) (%) (` cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2 01 3E 5,87 8 16.8 72 2 4 .2 4 0 .7 2 8.4 1 1 .2 21 .7 3 .6

FY2 01 4E 6,79 9 17.0 85 6 4 .9 4 1 .4 2 4.0 9 .0 18 .5 3 .1

Colgate (CMP: ` 1 , 1 6 8 / TP: - / Upside: - %)

Col gate is slated to an nounce its 1Q FY201 3 results. We expect 18 .1% yoy growth

to ` 722 cr aided by good performance of toothpaste and toothbrush category. The

com pany s OPM is expected to expand b y 181 bp yoy to 21% due to lower ad

spends and softening of key input prices. Net profit is expected to grow by 26.8%

yoy to ` 127cr . W e m aintain a neu tral view on the stock.


March (` cr) (%) (` cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2 01 3E 3 ,01 8 21.2 46 9 3 4 .5 1 1 3 .9 3 3.9 4 1 .0 26 .6 5 .2

FY2 01 4E 3 ,42 9 22.3 54 2 3 9 .8 1 2 9 .0 2 9.3 3 5 .1 22 .5 4 .6


13/26



Indian Bank- (CMP: ` 184/ TP: - / Upside: -)

Indian Bank is scheduled to an nounce its 1Q FY201 3 results today. We expect thebank to report a 10.8% yoy growth in Net Interest Income to ` 1,141cr. Growth inNon-interest income is expected to be healthy at 18.3% yoy to ` 295cr. Op eratingexpenses are expected to be 18.6% higher on a yoy basis to ` 591cr. Provisioningexpenses are expected to increase significantly by 58.3% yoy to ` 280cr, and would

result in 1 .5% yoy decline in net profit to`

40 1cr. At the CM P, the stock is trading a t0.6 x FY20 14 E ABV. W e m aintain our N eutral rating on the stock.

Y/ E O p. Inc N IM PAT EPS ABV RO A RO E P/ E P/ ABV

March (` cr) (%) (` cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2013E 6,417 3.5 1 ,776 40.2 239.1 1 .2 17.9 4 .2 0 .7

FY2014E 7,292 3.5 1 ,901 43.1 270.0 1 .1 16.8 3 .9 0 .6

Tata Global (CMP: ` 1 1 9 / TP: ` 136 / Upside: 14.3 %)

Tata Glo bal is slated to an no unce its 1Q FY201 3results. We expect 10.8 % yoy

growth in topline to ` 1,613cr aided by both volume and value growth. The

com pany s O PM is expected to expan d by 15b p yoy to 7.5% aided by mar ginal

reduction in selling and distribution expenses. Net Profit is expected to grow by

112.6% yoy to ` 82cr . We have an Accumulate rating on the stock with a target

price of ` 1 3 6 .


M a rch (` cr) (%) (` cr) (` ) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x)

FY2 01 3E 7,01 1 9.7 38 8 6 .3 9 .5 1 9.0 1 .8 9 .8 1 .0

FY2 01 4E 7,71 1 10 46 1 7 .5 1 0 .9 1 5.9 1 .7 8 .6 0 .9

Quarterly Bloomb erg Brokers Consensus Estimate

Co lg a te - (2 3 / 0 7 / 2 0 1 2 )

Particulars (` cr) 1 Q F Y1 3 E 1 Q F Y 1 2 y-o-y (%) 4 Q F Y 1 2 q-o-q (%)

N et sales 719 611 18 68 6 5

EBITDA 155 136 14 17 0 (9 )

EBITDA margin (%) 21 . 6 22 . 3 24 . 8

Net prof i t 123 100 23 13 1 (6 )

D abur India Ltd - C onsolidated (23 / 07 / 20 12 )


N et sales 1,419 1,205 18 1,364 4EBITDA 210 179 17 22 4 (6 )

EBITDA margin (%) 14 . 8 14 . 9 16 . 4

Net prof i t 155 128 21 17 1 (9 )


14/26



Hindustan U nilever Ltd - (2 3/ 07 / 20 12 )


N et sales 6,273 5,504 14 5,660 11

EBITDA 866 754 15 83 3 4

EBITDA margin (%) 13 . 8 13 . 7 14 . 7

Net prof i t 695 627 11 68 7 1

Idea Ltd - Consolidated (23 / 07 / 2 01 2)


N et sales 5,588 4,516 24 5,273 6

EBITDA 1,515 1,204 26 1,155 31

EBITDA margin (%) 27 . 1 26 . 7 21 . 9

Net prof i t 299 177 69 19 0 57

Larsen & Toubro Ltd - (23/ 07 / 2 01 2)


N et sales 11,003 9,483 16 18 , 646 (41)

EBITDA 1,244 1,126 10 2,930 (58)

EBITDA margin (%) 11 . 3 11 . 9 15 . 7

Net prof i t 814 746 9 1,920 (58)

Tata Global Beverage Ltd - Consolidated (23/07/2012)


N et sales 1,636 1,456 12 1,724 (5 )

EBITDA 143 118 21 16 7 (14)

EBITDA margin (%) 8.7 8 .1 9 .7

Net prof i t 81 169 (52) 98 (17)

Ashok Leyland Ltd - (24/07/2012)Particulars (` cr) 1 Q F Y1 3 E 1 Q F Y 1 2 y-o-y (%) 4 Q F Y 1 2 q-o-q (%)

N et sales 3,079 2,496 23 4,236 (27)

EBITDA 267 245 9 47 0 (43)

EBITDA margin (%) 8.7 9 .8 11.1

Net prof i t 92 86 7 26 9 (66)

Canara Bank Ltd (24 / 07 / 201 2)

Particulars (` cr) 1 Q F Y1 3 E 1 Q F Y1 2 y-o-y (%) 4 Q FY 1 2 q-o-q (%)

Net prof i t 820 726 13 82 9 (1 )

Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - C onsolidated (24 / 07 / 20 12 )Particulars (` cr) 1 Q F Y1 3 E 1 Q F Y 1 2 y-o-y (%) 4 Q F Y 1 2 q-o-q (%)

N et sales 5,219 3,940 32 5,465 -5

EBITDA 1,931 1,626 19 1,914 1

EBITDA margin (%) 37 . 0 41 . 3 35 . 0

Net prof i t 1 , 091 937 16 1,171 -7


15/26



LIC H ousing Finance Ltd (24 / 07 / 2 01 2)


Net prof i t 269 257 5 25 4 6

Lupin Ltd - Consolidated (24/ 07 / 20 12 )Particulars (` cr) 1 Q F Y1 3 E 1 Q F Y 1 2 y-o-y (%) 4 Q F Y 1 2 q-o-q (%)

N et sales 2,021 1,543 31 1,883 7

EBITDA 417 294 42 37 3 12

EBITDA margin (%) 20 . 6 19 . 1 19 . 8

Net prof i t 264 214 23 16 1 64

Shriram Transport Finance Company Ltd - (24/07/2012)


Net prof i t 324 347 (7 ) 30 8 5

Sesa G oa Ltd - C onsolidated (24/ 0 7/ 20 1 2)


N et sales 1,865 2,095 (11) 2,791 (33)

EBITDA 659 1 , 147 (43) 99 7 (34)

EBITDA margin (%) 35 . 3 54 . 7 35 . 7

Net prof i t 894 841 6 1,162 (23)

Wipro Ltd - Consolidated (24 / 07 / 20 12 )


N et sales 10,556 8,564 23 9,816 8

EBITDA 2,084 1,729 21 2,205 (5 )

EBITDA margin (%) 19 . 7 20 . 2 22 . 5

Net prof i t 1 ,604 1,340 20 1,491 8

HC L Tech Ltd - C onsolidated (25/ 07 / 20 1 2)


N et sales 10,556 8,564 23 9,816 8

EBITDA 2,084 1,729 21 2,205 (5 )

EBITDA margin (%) 19 . 7 20 . 2 22 . 5

Net prof i t 1 ,604 1,340 20 1,491 8

Power Grid C orporation Ltd (25 / 07 / 2 01 2)


Net prof i t 939 705 33 1,032 (9 )

Yes Bank Ltd (25/07/2012)


Net prof i t 271 216 25 27 2 (0 )


16/26



Economic and Political News

Prana b M ukherjee elected as President o f India WTO ma y set up pa nel a gainst US Steel duty G overnment tells PSU s not to invite bids for bulk deposits

Corporate News

O NG C blam es BHEL for Palatan a project delay L&T, Pipavav Ink two separate defence JVs with Mazagon Dock Hind Zinc sees local demand g rowing a t 8-10 %Source: Economi c Times, Business Stand ard , Business Line, Financia l Express, Mint


17/26

Date Company

July 23, 2012 Larsen & Toubro, HUL, Cairn India, Idea Cellular, Dabur India, Colgate, Indian Bank, Tata Global, Rallis, Greenply

July 24, 2012Wipro, Jindal Steel, Lupin, Canara Bank, Sesa Goa, Shriram Trans., LIC Housing Fin., Ashok Leyland, Page Industries,Ineos ABS

July 25, 2012 Power Grid Corpn, HCL Tech, Yes Bank, Aventis, Vijaya Bank, GIPCL, MRF, Jyothy Laboratories

July 26, 2012ITC, BHEL, Sterlite Inds, Ambuja Cements, ACC, JSW Steel , Gujarat Gas, Tata Comm, Thermax, Jagran Prakashan,Bajaj Electrical, J K Lakshmi Cements

July 27, 2012NTPC, ICICI Bank, Nestle, Punjab Natl.Bank, Grasim Inds, Bank of India, Rural Elec.Corp., Union Bank, United Spirits,Central Bank, IRB Infra, Areva, CESC, TVS Motor, Dena Bank, Hind. Const.

July 28, 2012 Maruti, Indraprasth Gas, Sarda Energy, Vesuvius India, Force Motors

July 29, 2012

July 30, 2012GAIL, Bank of Baroda, Oriental Bank, Allahabad Bank, IOB, Corporation Bank, Syndicate Bank, Indoco Remedies,Subros

July 31, 2012 Titan Inds., Petronet LNG, Ipca labs, Hexaware

August 01, 2012 Mundra Port, Adani Power, Sun TV Network, Federal Bank, PVR

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Result Calendar

Global economic events release calendar

Date Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

Last Reported Estimated

Jul 23 2012 12:00AM Euro ZoneEuro-Zone ConsumerConfidence

Value Jul A (19.80) (20.00)

Jul 24 2012 12:00AM Germany PMI Services Value Jul A 49.90 50.00

Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Jul A 45.00 45.10

Jul 25 2012 12:00AM UK GDP (YoY) % Change 2Q A (0.20) (0.30)

US New home sales Thousands Jun 369.00 370.00

Jul 26 2012 12:00AM US Initial Jobless claims Thousands Jul 21 386.00 380.00

Jul 27 2012 12:00AM US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 2Q A 1.90 1.40

Jul 31 2012 12:00AM US Consumer ConfidenceS.A./

1985=100Jul 62.00 62.00

Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Jul 7.00 --

India RBI Repo rate % Jul 31 8.00 --

India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % Jul 31 4.75 --

India RBI Reverse Repo rate % Jul 31 7.00 --

Aug 1 2012 12:00AM India Imports YoY% % Change Jun (7.36) --

India Exports YoY% % Change Jun (4.16) --

UK PMI Manufacturing Value Jul 48.60 --

China PMI Manufacturing Value Jul 50.20 --

US FOMC rate decision % Aug 1 0.25 0.25

Aug 2 2012 12:00AM UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio Aug 2 0.50 0.50

Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % Aug 2 0.75 --

Aug 3 2012 12:00AM US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Jul 80.00 98.50

US Unnemployment rate % Jul 8.20 8.20

Aug 7 2012 12:00AM UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Jun (1.60) --

Aug 9 2012 12:00AM China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Jul 9.50 --

China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Jul 2.20 --

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research


July 23, 2012

Market Outlook


18/26

Market StrategyJuly 23, 2012


Macro watch

Exhibit 1 :Q uarterly GD P trends

5. 9

7. 5

9. 8

7. 4

9. 48. 5

7. 68. 2

9. 2

8. 0

6. 76. 1

5. 3

3. 0

4. 0

5. 0

6. 0

7. 0

8. 0

9. 010.0

4Q

FY09

1Q

FY10

2Q

FY10

3Q

FY10

4Q

FY10

1Q

FY11

2Q

FY11

3Q

FY11

4Q

FY11

1Q

FY12

2Q

FY12

3Q

FY12

4Q

FY12

(%)

Source: C SO , Ang el Research

Exhibit 2 :IIP trends

9. 5

3. 7 3. 42. 5

(5.0)

6. 0

2. 7

1. 0

4. 3

(3.2)

(0.9)

2. 4

(6.0)

(4.0)

(2.0)

-

2. 0

4. 0

6. 0

8. 0

10.012.0

Jun

-11

Ju

l-11

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-

12

M

ar

-12

Apr

-12

M

ay

-12

(%)

Source: M O SPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3 :M onthly WPI inflation trends

9. 4 9. 810.0 9. 9 9. 5

7. 76. 9

7. 4 7. 7 7. 5 7. 6 7. 3

0. 0

2. 0

4. 0

6. 0

8. 0

10.0

12.0

Ju

l-11

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-1

2

M

ar

-12

Apr

-12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

(%)

Source: M O SPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 4 :M an ufacturing and services PM I

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

60.0

Jun

-11

Ju

l-11

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-

12

M

ar

-12

Apr

-12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

M fg. PM I Services PM I

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5 :Exports and imports growth trends

(15.0)

0. 0

15.0

30.0

45.0

60.0

75.0

Jun

-11

Ju

l-11

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-

12

M

ar

-12

Apr

-12

M

ay

-12

Expo rts yo y g rowth Im p orts yo y g rowth(%)

Source: Bloomb erg, Ang el Research

Exhibit 6 :Key policy rates

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

Ju

l-11

Aug

-11

Sep

-11

O

ct-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-

12

M

ar

-12

Apr

-12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

Repo rate Reverse Repo rate C RR(%)

Source: RBI, Angel Research


19/26

Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis Neutral 124 - 2,417 1,432 1,647 14.7 14.7 7.0 8.0 17.8 15.5 3.7 3.2 22.8 22.3 1.8 1.5

United Phosphorus Buy 124 183 5,739 8,191 8,764 16.5 16.5 17.1 18.3 7.3 6.8 1.2 1.0 17.5 16.2 0.8 0.7

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Amara Raja Batteries Accumulate 301 345 2,567 2,715 3,041 15.3 15.3 29.2 32.8 10.3 9.2 2.4 1.9 26.0 23.3 0.9 0.8

Apollo Tyres Buy 83 100 4,186 13,699 15,184 10.5 10.2 12.1 13.3 6.9 6.2 1.3 1.1 19.7 18.4 0.5 0.4

Ashok Leyland Buy 24 33 6,399 14,798 16,687 9.6 9.6 2.4 3.0 9.9 8.1 2.0 1.7 14.8 16.5 0.5 0.4

Automotive Axle Accumulate 411 457 621 1,211 1,387 12.1 11.7 50.3 57.1 8.2 7.2 2.1 1.7 27.8 25.7 0.5 0.5Bajaj Auto Accumulate 1,591 1,698 46,027 21,285 23,927 18.2 18.3 108.5 121.3 14.7 13.1 6.1 4.9 46.1 41.3 1.7 1.5

Bharat Forge Buy 297 372 6,914 7,173 7,998 16.3 16.5 22.3 26.6 13.3 11.2 2.6 2.2 21.0 21.0 1.0 0.9

Bosch India Neutral 8,805 - 27,645 9,106 10,255 19.4 19.3 410.2 460.3 21.5 19.1 4.7 3.9 22.1 20.4 2.7 2.3

CEAT Buy 101 164 346 5,067 5,631 8.0 7.6 39.4 41.0 2.6 2.5 0.4 0.4 18.8 16.5 0.3 0.3

Exide Industries Accumulate 133 149 11,267 5,899 6,771 16.0 17.0 7.4 9.1 18.0 14.5 3.2 2.7 19.0 20.2 1.6 1.3

FAG Bearings Neutral 1,489 - 2,474 1,505 1,747 17.7 18.0 111.5 130.0 13.4 11.5 2.8 2.3 22.8 21.7 1.4 1.1

Hero Motocorp Buy 2,084 2,428 41,622 26,097 29,963 15.0 15.3 139.5 151.8 14.9 13.7 7.0 5.4 54.6 44.3 1.3 1.1

JK Tyre Buy 95 135 389 7,950 8,904 5.5 6.0 25.1 38.6 3.8 2.5 0.4 0.4 12.1 16.4 0.3 0.3

Mahindra and Mahindra Buy 704 824 43,200 35,881 40,746 10.0 10.0 47.5 53.2 14.8 13.2 2.9 2.5 21.3 20.5 1.0 0.8

Maruti Buy 1,145 1,364 33,067 39,959 46,670 6.0 7.0 71.4 90.9 16.0 12.6 1.9 1.7 12.8 14.4 0.6 0.5

Motherson Sumi Buy 170 216 6,659 23,342 26,366 7.8 8.2 13.3 18.0 12.8 9.5 3.1 2.4 26.2 28.4 0.5 0.4

Subros Accumulate 33 36 196 1,244 1,402 8.4 8.3 4.5 5.1 7.3 6.4 0.7 0.7 9.9 11.0 0.4 0.4

Tata Motors Buy 223 305 59,525 191,303 211,004 13.0 12.9 40.7 43.8 5.5 5.1 1.8 1.6 36.0 33.1 0.4 0.4

TVS Motor Accumulate 40 42 1,903 7,442 8,198 6.2 6.1 4.8 5.2 8.4 7.6 1.5 1.3 18.2 17.9 0.2 0.2

Capital Goods

ABB* Sell 763 498 16,159 8,760 10,023 7.6 7.5 18.2 20.7 41.8 36.8 5.6 5.0 14.4 14.6 1.8 1.6BGR Energy Neutral 300 - 2,163 4,195 4,837 11.0 11.0 30.1 32.4 10.0 9.3 1.7 1.6 18.4 17.6 1.1 1.0

BHEL Neutral 229 - 56,013 46,344 46,916 18.3 18.6 23.5 24.1 9.7 9.5 1.9 1.7 21.3 18.9 1.1 1.1

Blue Star Neutral 189 - 1,702 3,047 3,328 5.4 6.9 9.6 16.2 19.7 11.7 3.9 3.1 20.7 29.7 0.7 0.5

Crompton Greaves Accumulate 130 142 8,346 12,451 14,265 7.9 8.3 8.0 9.5 16.3 13.7 2.2 1.9 13.9 14.9 0.7 0.6

Jyoti Structures Buy 41 67 339 2,622 2,801 10.6 11.0 10.9 13.4 3.8 3.1 0.5 0.4 13.7 14.9 0.3 0.3

KEC International Buy 56 73 1,440 6,686 7,200 8.5 8.8 10.6 12.2 5.3 4.6 1.0 0.8 25.9 24.0 0.4 0.4

LMW Buy 1,619 1,992 1,824 2,369 2,727 11.7 11.7 143.4 166.0 11.3 9.8 1.9 1.7 17.4 18.4 0.3 0.2

Thermax Neutral 519 - 6,186 5,514 5,559 9.8 9.6 29.7 28.4 17.5 18.3 3.3 2.9 20.2 16.9 1.0 0.9


July 23, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


20/26



Cement

ACC Neutral 1,259 - 23,644 11,096 12,607 21.0 21.7 76.1 82.9 16.6 15.2 3.1 2.8 19.3 19.3 1.9 1.6

Ambuja Cements Neutral 169 - 25,988 10,205 11,659 24.6 24.2 10.8 12.0 15.6 14.0 3.3 2.9 19.7 19.8 2.2 1.8

India Cements Neutral 79 - 2,434 4,364 4,791 18.9 19.1 9.2 11.4 8.6 7.0 0.7 0.6 8.0 9.5 0.5 0.4

J K Lakshmi Cements Neutral 80 - 984 1,938 2,246 19.1 20.1 15.2 16.8 5.3 4.8 0.7 0.6 13.8 14.0 0.6 1.0

Madras Cements Neutral 154 - 3,673 3,444 3,786 25.5 24.9 14.6 17.1 10.6 9.1 1.6 1.4 15.6 16.0 1.7 1.4

Shree Cements Neutral 2,924 - 10,187 5,519 6,293 24.5 23.7 156.6 225.3 18.7 13.0 4.6 4.0 22.3 26.0 1.5 1.2

UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,567 - 42,948 20,099 22,642 21.7 22.9 89.6 1 04.7 17.5 15.0 2.9 2.5 17.7 17.9 2.0 1.9Construction

Ashoka Buildcon Buy 213 273 1,121 2,014 2,293 22.4 22.4 22.6 26.7 9.4 8.0 1.0 0.9 11.4 11.9 2.4 2.7

Consolidated Co Neutral 17 - 317 2,489 2,755 7.0 7.8 3.0 4.0 5.8 4.3 0.5 0.5 8.7 10.8 0.3 0.3

Hind. Const. Neutral 19 - 1,162 4,239 4,522 11.1 11.8 (1.8) (0.8) (10.7) (24.5) 1.1 1.2 (9.5) (4.7) 1.3 1.2

IRB Infra Buy 131 166 4,356 3,821 4,582 42.3 40.2 15.0 16.9 8.7 7.7 1.3 1.1 16.1 15.8 2.8 2.5

ITNL Buy 178 265 3,467 6,619 7,925 23.8 23.3 22.9 27.8 7.8 6.4 1.1 1.0 15.5 16.4 2.2 2.1

IVRCL Infra Buy 47 61 1,246 5,510 6,722 8.8 9.0 2.5 4.6 18.4 10.2 0.6 0.6 3.4 5.8 0.7 0.7

Jaiprakash Asso. Accumulate 78 88 16,544 15,259 17,502 25.7 24.7 4.2 5.0 18.4 15.5 1.5 1.4 8.5 9.3 2.4 2.1

Larsen & Toubro Accumulate 1,390 1,553 85,179 59,559 69,089 12.1 11.5 78.4 85.2 17.7 16.3 2.9 2.6 16.1 15.3 1.6 1.4

Madhucon Proj Buy 37 56 274 2,206 2,502 10.7 10.7 4.6 4.7 8.0 7.9 0.4 0.4 5.2 5.0 0.7 0.7

Nagarjuna Const. Neutral 40 - 1,029 5,453 6,169 8.1 8.5 1.6 1.9 24.4 20.8 0.4 0.4 1.8 2.1 0.6 0.7

Patel Engg. Neutral 94 - 654 3,609 3,836 13.1 13.1 14.0 14.6 6.7 6.4 0.4 0.4 6.3 6.1 1.0 1.1

Punj Lloyd Neutral 53 - 1,770 11,592 12,993 8.4 8.4 1.8 3.2 29.6 16.7 0.6 0.6 2.0 3.4 0.6 0.6

Sadbhav Engg. Buy 140 182 2,104 2,789 3,147 10.6 10.7 8.4 10.4 16.6 13.4 2.3 2.0 15.0 15.6 0.9 0.8

Simplex Infra Buy 222 265 1,100 6,732 7,837 8.1 8.4 23.5 29.4 9.5 7.6 0.9 0.8 9.6 11.0 0.5 0.4

FinancialsAllahabad Bank Accumulate 140 153 6,998 7,467 8,685 3.2 3.3 37.5 41.5 3.7 3.4 0.6 0.6 18.1 17.4 - -

Andhra Bank Neutral 112 - 6,256 5,225 6,024 3.3 3.3 22.7 25.4 4.9 4.4 0.8 0.7 16.0 15.8 - -

Axis Bank Buy 1,041 1,485 43,132 15,961 19,583 3.1 3.2 117.3 143.1 8.9 7.3 1.7 1.4 20.1 20.8 - -

Bank of Baroda Buy 696 921 27,261 16,157 19,475 2.7 2.7 123.7 148.3 5.6 4.7 0.9 0.8 17.3 18.1 - -

Bank of India Buy 325 388 18,645 13,657 15,902 2.5 2.6 59.5 70.6 5.5 4.6 0.9 0.8 16.2 16.9 - -

Bank of Maharashtra Accumulate 47 52 2,765 3,506 3,925 3.2 3.2 10.2 11.9 4.6 4.0 0.7 0.6 15.3 15.8 - -

Canara Bank Buy 402 492 17,811 12,296 14,445 2.4 2.5 81.5 92.2 4.9 4.4 0.8 0.7 16.4 16.3 - -

Central Bank Reduce 76 72 5,606 7,001 8,211 2.5 2.6 14.0 20.6 5.4 3.7 0.8 0.7 11.0 14.5 - -


July 23, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


21/26



Financials

Corporation Bank Accumulate 414 465 6,133 5,294 6,070 2.3 2.3 106.3 110.1 3.9 3.8 0.7 0.6 17.7 16.2 - -

Dena Bank Accumulate 100 106 3,483 3,170 3,577 2.9 2.9 22.8 25.3 4.4 3.9 0.7 0.6 17.2 16.6 - -

Federal Bank Neutral 416 - 7,120 2,736 3,165 3.4 3.4 49.3 57.4 8.5 7.3 1.1 1.0 13.9 14.5 - -

HDFC Neutral 684 - 101,961 7,340 8,805 3.5 3.5 31.5 37.8 21.7 18.1 4.3 3.9 34.8 32.2 - -

HDFC Bank Neutral 583 - 137,315 21,936 27,454 4.4 4.4 28.7 36.0 20.3 16.2 3.9 3.3 20.7 22.0 - -

ICICI Bank Buy 935 1,169 107,470 22,368 26,857 2.8 2.9 68.2 80.4 13.7 11.6 1.7 1.5 14.2 15.4 - -

IDBI Bank Buy 93 113 11,838 8,152 9,907 1.9 2.1 19.7 24.1 4.7 3.8 0.6 0.6 13.6 15.0 - -Indian Bank Neutral 184 - 7,903 6,417 7,292 3.5 3.5 40.2 43.1 4.6 4.3 0.8 0.7 17.9 16.9 - -

IOB Accumulate 83 91 6,575 7,578 8,662 2.6 2.7 17.2 22.5 4.8 3.7 0.6 0.5 12.1 14.3 - -

J & K Bank Accumulate 908 979 4,403 2,525 2,858 3.5 3.5 175.8 183.1 5.2 5.0 0.9 0.8 19.3 17.5 - -

LIC Housing Finance Accumulate 259 286 13,083 2,108 2,607 2.6 2.6 24.5 30.6 10.6 8.5 2.0 1.7 20.1 21.4 - -

Oriental Bank Accumulate 239 269 6,961 6,497 7,533 2.8 2.8 53.4 63.9 4.5 3.7 0.6 0.5 13.3 14.3 - -

Punjab Natl.Bank Buy 819 1,050 27,777 20,142 23,929 3.2 3.3 153.3 174.3 5.3 4.7 1.0 0.8 18.3 18.0 - -

South Ind.Bank Neutral 24 - 2,752 1,514 1,717 2.8 2.7 4.0 4.2 6.1 5.8 1.2 1.0 20.5 18.5 - -

St Bk of India Accumulate 2,135 2,443 143,238 67,783 78,208 3.7 3.6 226.0 264.2 9.4 8.1 1.5 1.3 17.7 18.1 - -

Syndicate Bank Buy 100 118 6,044 7,176 8,299 3.1 3.1 25.1 29.1 4.0 3.5 0.7 0.6 17.6 17.8 - -

UCO Bank Reduce 76 71 5,052 5,642 6,438 2.5 2.5 16.4 17.6 4.7 4.3 0.9 0.8 16.2 15.4 - -

Union Bank Buy 192 256 10,562 10,623 12,404 3.0 3.0 42.5 49.6 4.5 3.9 0.8 0.6 16.9 17.2 - -

United Bank Buy 59 78 2,128 3,599 4,212 2.8 3.0 18.2 22.3 3.2 2.6 0.5 0.4 15.0 16.2 - -

Vijaya Bank Reduce 56 52 2,785 2,695 3,097 2.2 2.3 9.6 12.0 5.9 4.7 0.7 0.7 12.0 13.6 - -

Yes Bank Buy 353 454 12,507 3,250 4,261 2.8 2.9 34.1 42.8 10.4 8.3 2.2 1.8 23.2 23.9 - -

FMCG

Asian Paints Neutral 3,724 - 35,720 11,423 13,309 16.3 16.3 125.3 148.4 29.7 25.1 10.1 7.9 38.0 35.4 3.0 2.5Britannia Buy 498 633 5,952 5,835 6,824 6.3 6.7 20.7 27.5 24.1 18.1 9.4 7.0 42.7 44.3 1.0 0.9

Colgate Neutral 1,168 - 15,890 3,007 3,417 21.1 22.1 38.2 43.8 30.6 26.7 36.4 28.6 130.2 119.9 5.1 4.5

Dabur India Neutral 118 - 20,565 5,878 6,799 16.8 17.0 4.2 4.9 28.5 24.0 10.3 8.4 39.3 42.0 3.4 3.0

GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 2,656 - 11,169 3,124 3,663 17.1 17.6 103.0 123.3 25.8 21.6 8.0 6.4 34.0 32.9 3.2 2.7

Godrej Consumer Neutral 591 - 20,110 5,973 7,000 18.4 18.6 22.8 27.2 25.9 21.8 7.1 5.7 31.3 38.4 3.4 2.9

HUL Neutral 446 - 96,384 25,350 29,309 14.3 14.4 14.1 16.4 31.6 27.2 23.6 18.5 82.7 76.2 3.6 3.1

ITC Neutral 253 - 198,010 29,588 34,063 35.4 35.8 9.3 10.9 27.1 23.3 8.7 7.1 35.2 33.8 6.4 5.5


July 23, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


22/26



FMCG

Marico Neutral 183 - 11,792 4,667 5,427 12.8 12.9 6.6 8.1 27.5 22.5 7.4 5.8 30.0 28.8 2.6 2.1

Nestle* Neutral 4,524 - 43,622 8,731 10,539 21.0 21.4 114.4 143.0 39.5 31.6 23.8 16.4 71.1 61.4 5.0 4.1

Tata Global Accumulate 119 136 7,343 7,011 7,711 9.7 10.0 6.3 7.5 18.9 15.9 1.8 1.7 9.5 10.9 1.0 0.9

IT

HCL Tech Buy 480 562 33,288 24,029 26,633 18.3 17.2 39.6 43.2 12.1 11.1 2.8 2.3 22.9 21.0 1.4 1.2

Hexaware Buy 115 132 3,406 1,921 2,178 20.6 20.0 10.4 11.4 11.1 10.1 2.7 2.3 24.7 23.4 1.5 1.3

Infosys Accumulate 2,218 2,530 127,341 39,151 41,743 31.6 31.9 161.9 174.5 13.7 12.7 3.3 2.8 23.8 22.1 2.7 2.4Infotech Enterprises Neutral 178 - 1,984 1,825 2,008 17.5 17.1 16.9 18.7 10.5 9.5 1.4 1.3 13.7 13.3 0.7 0.6

KPIT Cummins Neutral 122 - 2,170 2,145 2,316 16.0 14.8 9.9 11.3 12.2 10.8 2.4 2.0 20.8 19.1 1.0 0.8

Mahindra Satyam Accumulate 83 87 9,762 7,492 8,038 17.0 16.3 8.1 8.3 10.2 10.0 1.4 1.3 14.1 12.6 0.9 0.8

Mindtree Accumulate 661 708 2,690 2,341 2,513 18.6 17.1 66.5 70.8 10.0 9.3 2.2 1.8 22.3 19.3 0.9 0.8

Mphasis Neutral 398 - 8,368 5,704 6,009 18.6 17.7 36.0 37.1 11.1 10.7 1.6 1.4 14.0 12.6 1.0 0.8

NIIT Buy 42 52 691 1,162 1,304 14.8 15.1 7.1 8.8 5.9 4.8 1.0 0.9 16.7 18.4 0.4 0.3

Persistent Neutral 399 - 1,594 1,187 1,274 26.7 26.0 34.5 42.6 11.6 9.4 1.7 1.4 14.4 15.4 1.0 0.9

TCS Accumulate 1,223 1,304 239,378 61,046 67,507 29.3 29.1 67.3 72.4 18.2 16.9 5.8 4.8 31.9 28.3 3.6 3.3

Tech Mahindra Neutral 715 - 9,114 6,282 6,477 17.5 16.5 82.9 85.0 8.6 8.4 1.9 1.5 21.6 18.4 1.4 1.3

Wipro Buy 363 451 89,362 44,597 49,033 20.3 20.5 26.6 30.1 13.7 12.1 2.7 2.3 19.5 18.9 1.7 1.4

Media

D B Corp Buy 203 269 3,718 1,638 1,851 25.8 26.6 13.5 16.1 15.0 12.6 3.3 2.8 23.9 24.2 2.2 1.8

HT Media Buy 91 148 2,129 2,224 2,509 16.6 17.2 8.6 10.8 10.6 8.4 1.3 1.1 12.9 14.3 0.6 0.4

Jagran Prakashan Buy 88 125 2,789 1,521 1,698 22.6 23.1 6.2 6.4 14.4 13.7 3.5 3.0 20.7 23.9 2.0 1.8

PVR Neutral 169 - 438 625 732 16.5 15.7 11.9 13.3 14.2 12.7 1.4 1.3 11.9 12.0 1.1 0.9

Sun TV Network Neutral 288 - 11,346 2,002 2,296 77.1 76.7 18.9 22.1 15.3 13.1 3.9 3.4 27.7 28.3 5.3 4.4Metals & Mining

Bhushan Steel Reduce 474 429 10,058 11,408 13,773 31.0 30.0 53.7 60.8 8.8 7.8 1.3 1.1 15.3 14.9 2.6 2.2

Coal India Neutral 361 - 227,989 68,841 74,509 25.3 25.3 24.1 26.1 15.0 13.8 4.1 3.4 30.4 26.8 2.4 2.1

Electrosteel Castings Buy 20 22 706 1,984 2,074 11.2 12.6 2.0 2.7 10.0 7.6 0.4 0.2 4.2 5.5 0.5 0.5

Hind. Zinc Buy 120 141 50,640 13,050 14,585 51.4 52.1 14.5 16.5 8.3 7.3 1.6 1.3 20.8 19.9 2.1 1.4

Hindalco Neutral 122 - 23,357 83,212 91,057 9.0 9.9 13.7 18.1 8.9 6.8 0.7 0.6 7.9 9.6 0.5 0.5

JSW Steel Neutral 704 - 15,699 39,592 44,910 18.0 17.7 74.7 88.9 9.4 7.9 0.9 0.8 10.7 11.6 0.7 0.7

MOIL Accumulate 278 296 4,663 1,007 1,091 56.6 56.9 29.4 31.9 9.4 8.7 1.7 1.5 19.0 18.2 2.4 2.0

Monnet Ispat Accumulate 388 447 2,496 3,115 3,748 22.1 25.1 59.1 66.8 6.6 5.8 0.9 0.8 15.6 15.3 1.6 1.2


July 23, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


23/26



Metals & Mining

Nalco Neutral 56 - 14,445 8,474 9,024 12.6 16.2 2.6 3.6 21.9 15.6 1.2 1.2 5.6 7.5 1.3 1.2

NMDC Neutral 191 - 75,587 11,959 13,062 78.2 78.6 19.1 20.9 10.0 9.1 2.5 2.0 27.1 24.4 4.2 3.7

SAIL Neutral 93 - 38,558 50,914 60,785 14.6 15.1 9.4 10.5 9.9 8.9 0.9 0.8 9.2 9.6 1.2 1.1

Sesa Goa Neutral 192 - 16,708 9,067 9,316 35.7 35.5 44.5 44.3 4.3 4.3 0.9 0.8 23.5 19.5 0.5 0.1

Sterlite Inds Buy 105 123 35,286 45,294 48,059 25.7 25.3 16.5 18.0 6.4 5.8 0.7 0.6 12.0 11.2 0.5 0.3

Tata Steel Buy 416 499 40,383 143,088 148,011 10.9 12.1 53.9 66.0 7.7 6.3 0.9 0.8 12.2 13.4 0.6 0.6

Oil & GasCairn India Accumulate 327 372 62,369 15,513 16,074 74.0 69.7 51.1 48.6 6.4 6.7 1.1 0.9 18.3 14.8 2.8 2.1

GAIL Neutral 354 - 44,948 50,472 55,502 15.3 15.6 35.4 37.0 10.0 9.6 1.8 1.5 19.0 17.2 0.1 -

ONGC Accumulate 282 321 241,265 156,331 159,043 37.7 36.3 31.3 32.6 9.0 8.7 1.6 1.4 18.7 17.3 1.2 1.1

Reliance Industries Neutral 723 - 236,635 316,404 319,119 11.2 12.0 63.5 68.7 11.4 10.5 1.2 1.0 11.7 11.4 0.7 0.7

Pharmaceuticals

Alembic Pharma Buy 58 91 1,094 1,624 1,855 14.2 15.6 6.6 9.1 8.8 6.4 2.1 1.7 27.5 29.2 0.9 0.8

Aurobindo Pharma Buy 108 156 3,153 5,243 5,767 14.6 14.6 11.8 12.6 9.2 8.6 0.9 0.4 11.4 10.9 0.8 0.6

Aventis* Neutral 2,182 - 5,025 1,482 1,682 15.5 15.5 95.0 104.0 23.0 21.0 4.1 3.2 18.6 17.0 3.2 2.8

Cadila Healthcare Accumulate 883 953 18,070 6,196 7,443 18.5 19.5 37.6 47.7 23.5 18.5 5.3 4.2 26.8 27.5 2.9 2.3

Cipla Accumulate 327 379 26,215 7,687 8,804 21.4 21.4 16.5 18.9 19.8 17.3 3.1 2.7 16.7 16.8 3.4 2.9

Dr Reddy's Neutral 1,611 - 27,348 10,696 11,662 20.7 21.0 83.7 92.9 19.3 17.3 4.0 3.4 22.4 21.0 2.7 2.5

Dishman Pharma Buy 68 92 545 1,280 1,536 17.8 17.8 9.2 11.3 7.3 6.0 0.6 0.5 7.7 8.5 1.1 0.9

GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,080 - 17,614 2,651 2,993 31.7 31.2 76.0 82.4 27.4 25.2 7.9 6.9 30.8 29.0 5.7 4.9

Indoco Remedies Buy 57 82 523 685 837 15.2 15.2 7.4 8.9 7.7 6.4 1.1 1.0 15.9 16.3 0.9 0.8

Ipca labs Buy 393 435 4,956 2,850 3,474 20.3 20.3 31.9 36.3 12.3 10.8 3.8 3.0 26.2 26.8 1.8 1.5

Lupin Accumulate 569 647 25,416 8,426 10,082 19.7 20.0 27.4 32.4 20.8 17.6 5.0 4.0 27.0 25.2 2.9 2.4Orchid Chemicals Buy 127 178 897 2,117 2,434 17.7 17.7 16.7 22.2 7.6 5.7 0.7 0.6 9.5 11.5 1.1 0.9

Ranbaxy* Neutral 482 - 20,362 12,046 11,980 18.0 15.8 35.7 29.8 13.5 16.2 5.1 4.1 43.1 28.1 1.7 1.7

Sun Pharma Neutral 625 - 64,374 9,272 11,080 38.6 38.0 22.7 22.6 27.5 27.7 4.6 4.1 17.9 15.6 5.6 4.4

Power

CESC Accumulate 309 342 3,855 5,084 5,512 24.2 23.8 45.2 48.5 6.8 6.4 0.7 0.7 11.2 10.9 1.2 1.2

GIPCL Buy 64 77 971 1,557 1,573 28.8 28.5 10.4 10.9 6.2 5.9 0.6 0.6 10.4 10.2 1.1 0.9

NTPC Neutral 156 - 128,506 74,766 86,549 23.1 23.4 12.4 14.1 12.5 11.1 1.6 1.4 13.0 13.5 2.5 2.2

Real Estate

Anant Raj Buy 51 78 1,502 657 875 52.0 56.1 8.4 12.7 6.1 4.0 0.4 0.3 6.3 8.9 3.6 2.7

DLF Neutral 205 - 34,741 9,878 12,033 44.7 46.1 9.6 13.4 21.4 15.3 1.4 1.3 6.4 8.7 6.1 5.0


July 23, 2012

Market Outlook

Stock Watch


24/26



Real Estate

HDIL Buy 82 115 3,432 2,441 3,344 55.1 48.2 22.7 26.6 3.6 3.1 0.3 0.3 8.8 9.4 3.3 2.5

MLIFE Buy 320 376 1,306 814 897 26.9 27.0 31.3 33.9 10.2 9.4 1.0 1.0 10.2 10.1 2.0 1.7

Telecom

Bharti Airtel Neutral 314 - 119,337 80,076 86,613 32.8 33.5 15.5 19.8 20.3 15.8 2.1 1.9 10.5 11.9 2.2 1.9

Idea Cellular Neutral 82 - 27,057 23,209 26,063 26.2 27.5 3.3 4.9 24.8 16.6 1.9 1.7 7.7 10.3 1.6 1.4

Rcom Neutral 64 - 13,158 22,125 23,734 31.9 32.0 4.5 5.9 14.2 10.9 0.4 0.3 2.5 3.1 2.0 1.7

zOthersAbbott India Accumulate 1,468 1,628 3,118 1,661 1,918 9.7 12.0 60.7 90.4 24.2 16.2 5.0 4.0 22.0 27.3 1.7 1.4

Bajaj Electricals Buy 194 246 1,928 3,569 4,172 8.6 9.2 17.3 22.3 11.2 8.7 2.4 2.0 22.9 25.3 0.5 0.5

Cera Sanitaryware Accumulate 300 327 380 405 477 15.8 17.2 31.0 41.0 9.7 7.3 2.2 1.7 24.3 25.8 1.1 0.9

Cravatex Buy 657 785 170 302 364 5.7 6.0 49.0 71.0 13.4 9.3 4.0 2.8 29.8 30.7 0.7 0.6

CRISIL Neutral 991 - 6,956 982 1,136 34.3 34.3 34.3 40.0 28.9 24.8 13.1 10.5 50.9 46.9 6.7 5.6

Finolex Cables Buy 41 61 627 2,334 2,687 8.8 9.3 7.6 10.2 5.4 4.0 0.7 0.6 13.7 16.1 0.2 0.1

Force Motors Buy 474 615 618 2,346 2,753 5.8 6.7 44.0 68.0 10.8 7.0 0.5 0.5 4.8 7.0 0.2 0.2

Goodyear India Accumulate 320 374 739 1,511 1,692 7.9 9.0 31.5 41.3 10.2 7.8 2.0 1.7 21.2 23.5 0.3 0.2

Graphite India Buy 82 124 1,605 2,158 2,406 18.1 18.9 12.4 14.0 6.6 5.9 0.9 0.8 14.0 14.3 0.9 0.7

Greenply Industries Buy 188 309 454 1,925 2,235 10.6 10.9 29.6 44.1 6.4 4.3 1.0 0.8 16.8 21.0 0.5 0.4

HEG Buy 208 242 833 1,746 1,946 16.5 17.7 22.5 32.9 9.2 6.3 0.9 0.9 10.4 14.2 1.1 1.1

Hitachi Buy 119 160 272 857 968 6.9 8.4 10.2 16.0 11.7 7.4 1.4 1.2 12.9 17.8 0.4 0.4

Honeywell Automation Buy 2,420 2,864 2,140 1,761 2,024 6.7 8.2 95.0 127.0 25.5 19.1 3.0 2.6 14.1 16.3 1.1 1.0

INEOS ABS India Buy 693 804 1,219 900 1,020 9.0 11.1 33.0 45.0 21.0 15.4 2.9 2.5 14.3 17.0 1.1 1.0

ITD Cementation Neutral 231 - 266 1,535 1,842 11.1 11.1 27.3 38.3 8.5 6.0 0.7 0.6 7.9 10.2 0.6 0.6

Jyothy Laboratories Buy 121 268 1,946 1,315 1,568 8.6 11.1 6.4 10.9 18.9 11.1 1.6 1.5 8.4 13.9 1.8 1.5MCX Buy 1,099 1,598 5,607 610 702 65.5 67.0 67.9 79.9 16.2 13.8 4.7 4.0 29.1 28.9 6.4 5.1

MRF Buy 10,060 13,106 4,267 12,390 14,400 10.4 11.3 1,334.6 1,638.2 7.5 6.1 1.5 1.2 16.5 17.4 0.5 0.5

Page Industries Neutral 2,867 - 3,198 887 1,108 18.3 18.6 95.0 120.9 30.2 23.7 15.8 12.8 57.4 59.5 3.6 2.9

Relaxo Footwears Buy 535 618 642 1,019 1,220 11.2 12.2 44.2 61.8 12.1 8.7 2.9 2.2 26.8 28.6 0.8 0.7

Sintex Industries Buy 63 79 1,725 4,751 5,189 16.3 16.6 13.6 15.8 4.6 4.0 0.6 0.5 12.9 13.2 0.7 0.6

Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 280 392 263 1,042 1,173 12.4 12.5 66.3 78.5 4.2 3.6 0.8 0.7 21.1 20.8 0.5 0.4

S. Kumars Nationwide Buy 33 45 974 7,279 8,290 21.0 21.0 15.0 17.6 2.2 1.9 0.3 0.2 13.7 13.9 0.7 0.7

SpiceJet Buy 33 40 1,615 5,647 6,513 3.5 6.5 1.9 4.9 17.2 6.8 40.3 5.8 - - 0.4 0.4


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zOthers

TAJ GVK Buy 68 108 424 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 8.6 7.4 1.1 1.0 13.9 14.4 1.7 1.5

Tata Sponge Iron Buy 343 420 528 700 806 18.2 18.2 55.6 65.1 6.2 5.3 0.8 0.7 14.2 14.8 0.3 0.2

TVS Srichakra Buy 342 462 262 1,612 1,827 9.5 9.8 72.3 92.5 4.7 3.7 1.4 1.0 33.1 32.1 0.4 0.3

United Spirits Neutral 818 - 10,704 10,289 11,421 13.5 14.3 31.0 42.9 26.4 19.1 2.1 1.9 8.1 10.3 1.7 1.5

Vesuvius India Accumulate 371 413 752 628 716 16.4 16.5 29.8 34.4 12.4 10.8 2.2 1.9 18.8 18.6 1.1 0.9

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on July 20, 2012


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July 23, 2012Market Outlook

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