Market News - Colony Foodscolonyfoods.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Colony... · Recent reports from the International grains council paint a crystal clear picture of record wheat

Cal

Oil Market Watch

USDA Weekly Livestock,

Poultry & Grain Market

Highlights

Click on the link below to view updates:

Dairy Market

Summary

Market News

Cheese & Butter

Market Update

Amerifresh

Produce Weekly

Link

Market Report -

Eggs

Bean and Rice

Market Report

Flour Facts

http://www.grassland.com/Market%20Report.php

http://www.amerifresh.com/resources/market-report?utm_source=Market+Report+01162015&utm_campaign=Constant+Contact+New&utm_medium=email

Egg Market Week of February 1, 2016

TTONE: Retail demand good. Supplies of jumbos through mediums close. Market

full steady to firm.

The regional egg markets are as follows:

Northeast Midwest Southeast South Central

Lg 1.81 1.78 1.83 1.90

Md 1.63 1.60 1.61 1.62

Source: Esbenshade, Inc.

Weekly Market Highlights

Wheat futures prices are very close to the levels we saw a week ago after fluctuating higher and then lower

again on speculation that Russia will or will not restrict wheat exports.

Basis premiums for high protein spring wheat fell gradually lower which was a surprise this time of year and

with futures prices this low. They could be expected to return to higher levels just as quickly.

Recent reports from the International grains council paint a crystal clear picture of record wheat production and

supplies, easily outpacing last year’s records.

Not to be outdone the USDA followed with the largest U.S. wheat carryover forecast since 2010 and dismal

export sales failing to deplete that stored wheat. Export levels haven’t been this low in more than 40 years.

While it is possible for wheat prices to rally it seems unlikely, and prices for wheat and flour could remain

attractive in the short term.

Facts on Flour Hard White Wheat

Hard White Wheat is the newest class of wheat to be grown in the United States. Closely related to red

wheat (except for color genes), this wheat has a milder, sweeter flavored bran, equal fiber and similar milling

and baking properties. Hard White Wheat is mainly used in yeast breads, hard rolls, bulgur, tortillas and

Oriental noodles.

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

Bu

sh

el p

ric

e

Futures & Basis Markets

KC Future

Spring 15% Basis

Mpls Future

Winter 13% Basis

Flour pricing consists of a combination of Wheat futures prices and Basis Premium prices per bushel. Information contained on this chart closely resembles Gold Medal All Trumps, Mpls. Future + 15% Basis, and Harvest King, KC Future + 13% Basis. This chart does not reflect changes in millfeed values.

This Chart is meant to indicate Market Direction Only.

JANUARY 28, 2016

The opinions expressed here are an interpretation of the current commodity markets. They are not recommendations or future guarantees of performance in specific commodity markets. Trinidad

Benham is not responsible for any damage or losses as a result of this information. January 28, 2016

January 2016 Bean and Rice Market Update

BEAN MARKET UPDATE:

The pinto market has moved higher due to lack of grower selling and strong export demand from Mexico.

Mexico’s winter crop is expected to be lower due to unfavorable weather. Steady purchasing of U.S. pintos by

Mexican importers since mid-December has strengthened the market.

Black beans—the large carryover of this year’s harvest is starting to weigh on the market. There has been ex-

tremely good demand from Mexico since harvest and shipments are expected to slow. Current exchange rates

may hinder new, additional sales to Mexico.

Lentils are extremely firm and market prices have gone up sharply. North American inventories are extremely

tight for remainder of crop year. Record demand from India is also driving price increase. Growers are seeing

record high lentil volumes.

Yellow beans are sharply higher, due to frost in Mexico the last week of December. The extent of damage to

the crop is unknown at this time. Harvest is in a few weeks and yield and milling loss will be known.

Garbanzos—the India Rabi crop planting is significantly behind the 5 year average. India is the world’s larg-

est producer and consumer of garbanzos. Australia is exporting garbs to India at a record pace. Concerns on

Mexico’s winter crop have caused further appreciation. Limited supplies are still available through the rest of

this crop year.

Growers remain indecisive as to what to plant, as most options today are break-even at best. Dry bean seed

bookings have been off to a slow start as growers keep a “wait and see” approach.

RICE MARKET UPDATE:

The price is range-bound, as growers are holding inventory and not selling at current levels. Export business

has remained slow, leaving mills with extra capacity as they wait for the next export opportunity.

Market Watch . . . . . . .

Market Watch

January 29, 2016


• Month end positioning could be a factor in todays market. Funds carry long oil positons

Soybean Oil

• Brazilian soybean harvest slightly behind pace at 3.7% vs. 7.5% last year and the 4.9% 5-year average.

• Argentine weather forecasts mixed. Rains were originally forecasted in the 10 day , but looks to have turned drier. Rains would be favorable as the BAGE recently reported plantings in Argentina at 100% complete.

Crop Updates

Expected Value Range $26.50 - $28.50 cash

Soybean Oil Market Pricing Trend

Value Ranges *

The information above reflects the current opinion of Stratas Foods but does not represent a guarantee of future market conditions. All final oil booking decisions should be made by the end customer and not Stratas Foods.

* Value ranges represent good booking levels if the market dips into this range

Argentine crush running at 65% capacity as farmers slow to sell.

March oil quickly settled back into the 6 week range 29-30.

NASS will release fats and oils data for December on Monday.

Misc. Influences Impact

Key FactorsRecent Trend

January 29, 2016

BearishBullish Neutral

• Soybean exports reported this morning at 647,800 mt down 34% from last week and 14% from the prior 4 week average.

• Soy oil export sales were meager at 9,147 mt vs. 19,287 last week, a 53% decrease and 37% lower than the prior 4-week average. We continue to hold slightly above last years pace, but a few more small weeks and we will fall behind. The majority of sales went to Jamaica and Mexico. Exports were also low at 8,000 mt down 80% from last week and 82% from the 4-week average. 6,900 mt of that went to Mexico.

• Oil product share had a strong week gaining 1.2%, up to 36.5%. We We could see this trend higher if meal and oil continue to spread.

• Crush to be watched, as oil is gaining share and meal demand is still weak.

Flash Summary


• Corn oil had a quiet week as the US nearby is tight.

Corn Oil

• Argentine corn planting progress slowly coming to an end at 98.4% complete. The major corn growing areas are dry and need a drink. Forecast are mixed for precipitationwith moderate temps.

• The 9% reduction in Argentine plantings seems to be the number most are using in production estimates.

• Brazilian corn estimates USDA at 81.5 MMT, CONAB 82.3 vs. last year actual 85.0.

• South African corn plantings forecast down 20%.

Crop Updates


Corn Oil Market Pricing Trend

Value Ranges *





• Corn exports of 817,000 mt are fairly strong , although down 29% from last week. They were above the 700,000/ week needed to reach the current USDA estimate of 1700 mlibus. Many analysts have already lowered their numbers to 1650 of less based on the large registrations building up in the duty free Argentine ports, 12.3 MMT currently registered.

• China to cut domestic corn prices in hope to spur demand. The interesting story in this headline is the history of hog producers using soymeal for feed, with corn pricings lower we could see a switch to corn. To be watched.

Flash Summary


Crush is yielding lower oil content.

Argentine dryness early in corn crop.

US corn exports pace holding steady.

January 29, 2016


COPA has reported increasing crush margins.

Canadian dollar had a firm week, signs they may have found a bottom…

Canola futures continue to watch it’s competitors for direction.

• Farmer selling paired with solid export demand and domestic crush.

Canola/Rapeseed Oil

• AAFC report data Monday their Dec outlook for current and next crop year. 2015-16 total field crop is estimated at 83.9 MM, slightly higher than last year, but below the record 2013.

• The carryover estimate is 3% lower than last year at 11.8 MMT. The higher usage is contributed to the weak Canadian dollar increasing attractiveness to foreign oilseed buyers.

• 2016-17 crop plantings are expected to see slight increases with a good portion going to canola prices have increase competitiveness with the soy market.

• Solid canola seed flow is also favorable for farmers, inspiring them to plant canola to ensure crop movement.

Crop Updates


Canola Oil Market Pricing Trend

Value Ranges *





• Canola cumulative crush(Aug-Jan) up 12.75% vs. last year.. Commercial stocks at 1.605 MMT, up a substantial 48% over the 3-year average.

• Canola exports up a whopping 22% from last year and 4.4% higher than the record exports in 2011/12.

• Crude oil eyed by all commodities as volatile trading makes for uncertainty. Higher crude trading links to a higher Canadian dollar, which is bearish canola.

Flash Summary


January 29, 2016


• Yields will continue to be watched.

Tropical Oils

• Monthly MPOB data out Feb 10 expected to show lower yields from El Nino-related dryness.

• Rumors peg Indonesian palm oil production down 15% from December.

Crop UpdatesPalm and Coconut Oil Market Pricing Trends





Rallying currencies have firmed prices to our shores.

Global macro concerns weigh on demand outlook.

Upcoming holidays could dry up liquidity.

January 29, 2016

• Prices to US shores have been firmer this week. This has been mostly due to changes in exchange rates.

• Market activity is expected to dry up ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday. Malaysian markets will be closed Monday for holiday.

• Palm oil futures have reflected changes in macroeconomic news flow.

• Biofuel production mandates have been a hot topic lately given lower energy prices, but the rally this week in crude oil has likely moved the topic to the backburner for now.

• Coconut prices have firmed this week thanks to rallying currencies. Fresh crush supplies remain restricted due to poor margins.

• China has reportedly rejected some palm oil due to contaminants this week.

• India and China have been quiet this week as buyers are comfortable remaining hand to mouth.

Flash Summary

Nat'l Purchased Wtd Avg Price - Barrows & Gilts ($/cwt) 54.54 5.2% -20.9%Pork Carcass Cutout FOB Plant ($/cwt) 74.12 4.0% -13.1%Segregated Early Weaned (SEW) Feeder Pigs ($/head) 62.20 4.7% -2.2%Iowa/So. Minn Avg Weight Barrows & Gilts (lbs) 285.3 -0.3% -0.6%Est. Hog Slaughter 2,329,000 1.3% 0.5%YTD Est. Hog Slaughter 7,376,000 N/A -1.1%Est. Pork Production (mil lbs) 497.9 1.7% -0.2%YTD Est. Pork Production (mil lbs) 1,578.6 N/A -1.9%

133.72 0.4% -16.1%207.64 -0.9% -18.5%228.73 -2.5% -10.9%223.31 -2.3% -10.2%

5.42 -0.79 -2.7910.57 -1.1% -30.7%

157.51 -2.8% -28.6%1,327.0 -0.7% 2.5%

31% -3.1% -18.4%569,000 0.2% -2.1%

1,735,000 N/A -4.0%474.0 -0.1% 0.4%

Live Wtd Avg Steer Price, 5 Area FOB ($/cwt) Dressed Wtd Avg Steer Price, 5 Area Del ($/cwt) Boxed Beef Cutout, Choice ($/cwt)Boxed Beef Cutout, Select ($/cwt)Boxed Beef, Choice/Select Spread ($/cwt)By-Product Drop Value, Steer ($/cwt live) **CME Feeder Cattle Index ($/cwt)Texas Avg Live Weight Slaughter Cattle (lbs) Texas Percent Slaughter HeifersEst. Cattle SlaughterYTD Est. Cattle SlaughterEst. Beef Production (mil lbs)YTD Est. Beef Production (mil lbs) 1,445.2 N/A -1.8%

Slaughter Lamb, Choice & Prime, Wtd Avg Price ($/cwt) 140.43 5.0% -5.9%Lamb Carcass Cutout ($/cwt) 327.54 1.9% -4.4%Est. Sheep Slaughter 38,000 -2.6% 8.6%YTD Est. Sheep Slaughter 114,000 N/A -1.7%Est. Lamb Production (mil lbs) 2.5 -3.8% 0.0%YTD Est. Lamb Production (mil lbs) 7.7 N/A -6.1%Veal Carcass Wtd Avg Non-Packer Owned ($/cwt) 423.16 -0.9% -2.7%Veal Carcass Wtd Avg Packer Owned ($/cwt) 438.07 0.2% -0.4%

Weekly Livestock, Poultry & Grain Market Highlights January 25, 2016 - Correction on Byproduct Drop Steer *

Current WeekChange From

Past WeekChange From

Past Year

Source: USDA AMS Livestock, Poultry & Grain Market News Portal

45.00

55.00

65.00

75.00

85.00

95.00

105.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Weekly Barrow & Gilt Price and Weekly Pork Cutout vs. 5 Year Average ($ per cwt)

Hog Price Pork Cutout 5 Year Avg Hog Price

Hogs and Pork

Cattle and Beef

Lamb and Veal

305.00

310.00

315.00

320.00

325.00

330.00

335.00

340.00

345.00


Weekly Lamb Carcass Cutout vs 5 Year Average ($ per cwt)

2015 5-year

190.00

197.50

205.00

212.50

220.00

227.50

235.00


Weekly Dressed Steer Price and Weekly Boxed Beef Choice Cutout vs. 5 Year Averages ($ per cwt)

Steer Price Boxed Beef Choice Cutout5 Year Avg Steer Price 5 Year Avg Choice Cutout

Weekly Livestock, Poultry & Grain Market Highlights

Central Illinois Avg Corn Price ($/bu) 3.6300 2.1% -1.5%Central Illinois Avg Soybean Price ($/bu) 8.7400 -0.5% -9.0%Central Illinois 48% Soybean Meal, Rail ($/ton) 277.50 -0.8% -23.6%Hard Red Winter Wheat Truck to Kansas City ($/bu) 4.5075 -0.3% -20.1%Dark Northern Spring Wheat, 14%, MN, Rail ($/bu) 5.9200 -2.5% -17.3%Soft White Wheat Portland ($/bu) 5.3525 0.6% -15.3%Sorghum, Kansas City, Truck ($/cwt) 6.3900 3.2% -8.3%

Nat'l Delivered Whole Body Price (cents/lb) 87.64 -2.1% -9.4%Est. Young Chicken Slaughter - Current Week (000's) 154,401 -5.6% N/AActual Slaughter of Young Chickens (000's) 162,806 1.2% 0.2%YTD Actual Slaughter of Young Chickens (000's) 323,698 N/A 0.0%Actual RTC Pounds of Young Chickens (000's) 763,430 0.4% 2.7%YTD RTC Pounds of Young Chickens (000's) 1,523,999 N/A 1.3%

Nat'l FOB Frozen Whole Body Price (cents/lb) 113.22 -1.1% 14.9%Actual Slaughter of Turkeys (000's) 4,303 -0.3% -2.6%YTD Actual Slaughter of Turkeys (000's) 8,620 N/A -1.7%Actual RTC Pounds of Turkeys (000's) 111,771 -0.4% -0.8%YTD RTC Pounds of Turkeys (000's) 223,978 N/A 0.1%

Combined Regional Large Eggs (cents/dozen) 103.60 3.0% -6.1%National Shell Egg Inventory (30 doz. Cases/000,s) 1073.0 -4.6% N/AShell Egg Demand Indicator (SEDI) 10.50 4.53 -2.50Central States Breaking Stock Av. Price (cents/dozen) 68.00 7.9% 23.6%National Breaking Stock Inventory (30 doz. Cases/000's) 326.8 -6.9% N/AEggs Broken Under Federal Inspection (30 doz cases) 1,318,387 -2.7% -12.6%YTD Eggs Broken Under Federal Inspection (30 doz cases) 2,672,733 N/A -13.2%

Source: USDA AMS Livestock, Poultry & Grain Market News Portal

January 25, 2016

Current WeekChange From

Past WeekChange From

Past YearGrain

Broilers

Turkeys

Eggs

70.00

75.00

80.00

85.00

90.00

95.00

100.00

105.00

110.00

115.00


Weekly National Broiler Whole Body Delivered Price (Cents /lb)

2016 2015 5-year

85.0090.0095.00

100.00105.00110.00115.00120.00125.00130.00135.00140.00


Weekly National Frozen Whole Body Hen Turkey FOB Price (cents/lb)

2016 2015 5-year

90.00110.00130.00150.00170.00190.00210.00230.00250.00270.00290.00


Weekly Combined Regional Large Egg Price (Cents/Dozen)

2016 2015 5-year

https://www.marketnews.usda.gov/mnp/ls-home

01/29/2016

Dairy Market Summary

BLOCK: Unchanged @ $ 1.4600 0 Sales

BARRELS: Unchanged @ $ 1.4300 0 Sales

BUTTER: Up .0200 @ $ 2.2200 7 Sales

NFDM Grade A: Down .0025 @ $ .7175 2 Sales

Date Blocks Block Change Sales Barrels Barrel Change Barrel Sales Spread

01/25/2016 1.4600 Unchanged 0 1.4300 Unchanged 0 0.0300





Average Market: 1.4600 0 1.4300 0

Date Butter Butter Change Butter Sales Grd A Grd A Change Grd A Sales

01/25/2016 2.1650 Down .0050 2 0.7050 Down .0050 10

01/26/2016 2.1900 Up .0250 4 0.7050 Unchanged 6

01/27/2016 2.2000 Up .0100 0 0.7175 Up .0125 2

01/28/2016 2.2000 Unchanged 0 0.7200 Up .0025 4

01/29/2016 2.2200 Up .0200 7 0.7175 Down .0025 2

Average Market: 2.1950 13 0.7130 24

--Year Ago--

Date Blocks Barrels Butter NFDM Grade A

01/27/2015 1.4850 1.4700 1.6025 0.9975

01/28/2015 1.4850 1.4750 1.6375 1.0350

01/29/2015 1.5125 1.5025 1.7050 1.0650

01/30/2015 1.5325 1.5050 1.7500 1.0700

Market NewsJanuary 22nd, 2016

Global Climate Conditions

Ag PricesUS Exports Dairy Product Production

Cold Storage Milk Production

Consumer Price Index

The Market

Table of ContentsClick on the icons below to jump to that Section!

Updates

Global

What’s New CME Activity Our CommentsKey Market

DriversDairy Market

News

CME Market Graphs

Recent Reports / Market Data

Domestic

Click on the home button at anytime to return Grayed out icons reflect no updates this week

What’s New?

The following monthly reports have had new data released this WEEK

• December 2015 Milk Production Reports – Released 1/22/2016

• December 2015 U.S. Cold Storage Report – Released 1/22/2016

• December 2015 U.S. Consumer Price Index Report – Released 1/20/2016

CME Activity

BLOCKS

BARRELS

BUTTER

AVG WEEKLY MARKET

TOTAL LOADS

TRADED/WKCHANGE FROM

PREV WEEK

January 22

January 22

January 22

$ 1 . 4 7 7 5

$ 1 . 4 7 8 1

$ 2 . 1 4 3 8

0 0 0 3

0 0 0 8

0 0 0 9

$ 0 . 0 0 9 5

$ 0 . 0 4 6 4

$ 0 . 0 2 9 2

One Year Ago

$ 1 . 4 7 5 0

$ 1 . 4 4 7 5

$ 1 . 5 5 0 0

January 15

January 15

January 15

$ 1 . 4 8 7 0

$ 1 . 5 2 4 0

$ 2 . 1 1 4 5

0 0 0 3

0 0 0 9

0 0 1 0

$ 0 . 0 0 8 5

$ 0 . 0 0 2 1

$ 0 . 0 0 8 3

$ 1 . 5 1 8 0

$ 1 . 5 0 8 5

$ 1 . 5 4 5 0

Our Comments

Short-Term Market Drivers

Milk production is steady. Increase in bottled milk demand due to Winter

Storm Jonas.

Inventories are building, which is

typical for this time of year.

Heavy cream volumes across the country. Churning is active.

The Current Milk Market

Milk volumes in California are up this week, but many are predicting a decrease in next week’s production due to expected bad weather. New Mexico farmers are still in the midst of “getting back to normal” after Winter Storm Goliath. Milk production there is still slightly down, and a few balancing plants are actually running below capacity. It’s been fairly wet in the Pacific Northwest causing milk production to be down this week. But more mild weather has elevated milk production in both Utah and Idaho. In the Midwest, milk supplies are balanced. Weather in the region has improved, making hauling milk much easier. Milk production in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions is up. The area is also bracing for a major winter storm, which will add to the increased bottled milk demand they are already experiencing. The Southeast is also reporting an increase in milk production, especially in Florida where it’s expected production will continue to increase aggressively over the next few weeks due to mild temperatures.

The Current Cheese Market

The CME spot barrel market ended the week at $1.4300, down $0.0950 from last week. The block market closed at $1.4600, which is down $0.0350 from a week ago. As milk becomes more readily available in the West, cheese production is on the rise. Demand at the retail level remains good, due in part to the NFL Super Bowl season. And some manufacturers are reporting a slight uptick in exports. However, inventories remain long, as supply is still exceeding demand. Cheese production in the Midwest is steady. Retail demand is strong, but overall demand is fair. Inventories are building in the Midwest, but it is being reported that manufacturers are not concerned. In the Northeast, cheese production is firm, and manufacturers continue to build inventories. Generally, demand is light.

The Current Butter Market

CME spot butter market closed today at $2.1700, which is down $0.0800 from last Friday. In the West, butter production is active. Manufacturers are concentrating production on bulk butter, and inventories are building slowly. Demand is decent, and buyers are placing spring holiday orders early. The Midwest has plenty of cream available for churning, and production reflects that. Butter manufacturers are still bringing in cream loads from the western and eastern regions of the country. Foodservice demand is steady, but retail demand is light. Butter production in the Northeast is firm; most manufacturers there are also busy building inventories. On a separate note, the CME announced butter traded on the CME (beginning February 1, 2016) will no longer have to be graded AA. Having to grade the product was burdensome and costly for some, which caused less butter to be offered at the CME. It’s hard to predict what kind of impact this will have on the market, but it can’t hurt.

Long-Term Market DriversBullish Considerations

Bearish Considerations

Severe California weather

China imports up

Farm profitability tightening

Winter Storm Goliath

Strong cheese inventories

Low exports

Robust European milk production

Dairy News From Around The Web

Farmers Paid $4.5 Million for Lost Milk Production

southwest-blizzard-update-farmers-paid-45-million-for-lost-milk-production-naa-anna-lisa-laca -

Dairy Profits Fall After Record-High 2014

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jan/22/dairy-profits-fall-after-record-high-2014/ -

southwest-blizzard-update-farmers-paid-45-million-for-lost-milk-production-naa-anna-lisa-laca

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jan/22/dairy-profits-fall-after-record-high-2014/

CME Market GraphsAverage Weekly BLOCK

$1.40

$1.60

$1.80

$2.00

$2.20

$2.40

$2.60

2014 2015 2016

Average Weekly BARREL

CME Market Graphs

$1.40

$1.60

$1.80

$2.00

$2.20

$2.40

$2.60

2014 2015 2016

Average Weekly BUTTER

CME Market Graphs

$1.20

$1.60

$2.00

$2.40

$2.80

$3.20

2014 2015 2016

Class III Milk Actuals & Futures

$12

$14

$16

$18

$20

$22

$24

$26

CME CIII Actuals CME CIII Futures

Recent Reports/Market Data

Barrel Cheese Actuals & Futures

$1.40

$1.60

$1.80

$2.00

$2.20

$2.40

$2.60

CME Barrel Actuals CME Barrel Futures


Weekly USDA Butter Stocks


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2014 2015 2016

Weekly Dairy Cow Slaughter


40

45

50

55

60

65

70

2014 2015 2016

‘00

0 H

ead

World Butter Prices


$1.3165 $1.3387 $2.1438

$0.70

$1.00

$1.30

$1.60

$1.90

$2.20

$2.50

$2.80

$3.10

Europe (80%) New Zealand (80%) U.S. CME Butter

World Cheese Prices


$1.3438 $1.4775

$1.20

$1.40

$1.60

$1.80

$2.00

$2.20

$2.40

$2.60

New Zealand Cheddar U.S. CME Cheddar Block

% C

han

ge in

Yo

YNew Zealand Milk Production – YoY% Change

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec

2014 2015

-


% C

han

ge in

Yo

Y

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

2014 2015

European Milk Production – YoY% Change


December Consumer Price Index Report

Milk CPI up 0.5%

from November

2015

Cheese CPI down

0.26% from

November 2015

Butter CPI up 1.4%

from November

2015

Cu

sto

mer

Pri

ce In

dex

160

180

200

220

240

260Ja

nF

eb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

nJu

lA

ug

Sep

Oct

No

vD

ec

Ja

nF

eb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

nJu

lA

ug

Sep

Oct

No

vD

ec

Ja

nF

eb

Mar

Apr

May

Ju

nJu

lA

ug

Sep

Oct

No

vD

ec

2013 2014 2015

Cheese Fresh Whole Milk, Seasonally Adjusted Butter

December 2015 Cold Storage ReportM

illio

n L

bs.

Commercial Total Cheese Cold Storage

980

1010

1040

1070

1100

1130

1160

1190

2013 2014 2015

YoY +12.56% MoM +0.02%

Inventories

are 127.8

million lbs.

higher than

their five-year

average

Mill

ion

Lb

s.

American – Type Cheese Cold Storage

December 2015 Cold Storage Report

600

620

640

660

680

700

720

740

2013 2014 2015

YoY +11.6% MoM +0.3%

Equivalent to

55 days of use

versus 51 days

a year ago

Mill

ion

Lb

s.

Commercial Butter Cold Storage

December 2015 Cold Storage Report

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2013 2014 2015

YoY +46.0% MoM 15.2%

Strongest

year-end

inventory

level since

December

2012

U.S. Dairy Herd Size

‘00

0 H

ead

Herd Size

9,180

9,200

9,220

9,240

9,260

9,280

9,300

9,320

9,340

2013 2014 2015

December 2015 Milk Production Report

November herd

size was revised

8,000 head

higher, with an

additional 1,000

head added in

December

Herd Size – Change from previous year

‘00

0 H

ead

Herd Size

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

(50)

(25)

-

25

50

75

100

125

150

JA

N

FE

B

MA

R

AP

R

MA

Y

JU

N

JU

L

AU

G

SE

P

OC

T

NO

V

DE

C

JA

N

FE

B

MA

R

AP

R

MA

Y

JU

N

JU

L

AU

G

SE

P

OC

T

NO

V

DE

C

2014 2015

Change from Prev yr Barrel Mkt


The gap to last

year continued

to shrink in

December as

gains in cow

numbers have

been happening

at a slower pace

than last year.

U.S. Milk Per Cow

Lbs.

Milk production per cow

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

2013 2014 2015

*Average Daily


Weakness in

total production

continues to be

driven mostly by

weak year over

year growth in

production per

cow

Milk Per Cow – Change from previous yearMilk production

per cow

$-

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

JAN

FEB

MA

R

AP

R

MA

Y

JUN

JUL

AU

G

SEP

OC

T

NO

V

DEC

JAN

FEB

MA

R

AP

R

MA

Y

JUN

JUL

AU

G

SEP

OC

T

NO

V

DEC

2014 2015

Milk Per cow % change from previous year CME Barrel


U.S. Total Milk Production

Bill

ion

s o

f Lb

s.

Total Milk Production

15.0

15.5

16.0

16.5

17.0

17.5

18.0

18.5

2013 2014 2015


Overall, December’s

report will likely be

viewed as slightly

bearish due to the

large revision in cow

numbers in

November

U.S. Milk Production – Change from previous yearTotal Milk Production


$-

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%JA

N

FE

B

MA

R

AP

R

MA

Y

JU

N

JU

L

AU

G

SE

P

OC

T

NO

V

DE

C

JA

N

FE

B

MA

R

AP

R

MA

Y

JU

N

JU

L

AU

G

SE

P

OC

T

NO

V

DE

C

2014 2015

Change Vs year ago Barrel Mkt

For milk production

to continue to be

bearish in 2016,

cow numbers or

productivity will

need to grow at a

stronger pace than

they have over the

past 6 months

December 2015 Milk Production

Losses in California

continue to be offset by

gains in Wisconsin.

Meanwhile, the impact of

winter storm Goliath

started to show up in

weakness in New Mexico

and Texas, however, losses

in cow numbers there only

came up to 5,000 head vs.

November

Market Indicators

Bearish

Bullish

Neutral

Symbolizes our belief of downward pressure in the market

Symbolizes our belief of upward pressure in the market

Symbolizes our belief of neutral pressure in the market

This data and these comments are provided for information

purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific

trading or pricing strategies. Commodity markets are volatile

and Schreiber Foods Inc. assumes no liability for the use of any

information contained herein. Although all information is

believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy and

completeness. Past financial results are not necessarily

indicative of future performance.

- Disclaimer -

Questions or Concerns?

If you have any questions or concerns, please do not hesitate to contact us at:

[email protected]

Thank You!

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