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Week 23/CY20: 31 st May – 5th June 2020 1 Market Masala… The flavors that influenced the market this week Go India Advisors Weekly Newsletter

Market Masala…

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Page 1: Market Masala…

Week 23/CY20: 31st May – 5th June 2020 1

Market Masala…The flavors that influenced the market this week

Go India AdvisorsWeekly Newsletter

Page 2: Market Masala…

Go India AdvisorsWeekly Newsletter

Headlines this weekUS Jobs data; SC– on waiver of interest; ECB stimulus; Delisting & Deals

06-06-2020 2

Jio announced 6th sale of it's equity, this time to Mubadala, Abu Dhabi based sovereign fund, a 1.85% stake for Rs 9093 cr. A total of 18.9% is sold in last 6 weeks for Rs87655cr.Uday Kotak raised approx Rs6,900cr, selling 2.8% of Kotak Bank in OFS at Rs1240/sh, the higher end of the price band on offer. The issue was subscribed 3x. GIC, Oppenhiemer, CPPIB, Capital International and local MFs were buyers.Standard Life sold 1.98% stake in HDFC Life to raise Rs1986cr. Buyers were Capital World, Societe Generale, Nomura, Morgan Stanley and local MFs.

Delisting – the new normal? Post the announcements by Vedanta and Adani Power, it was the turn of Hexaware to announce intention to delist. Many promoters are using the low stock prices to start the de-listing process; however success will require some solid loosening of the purse strings.

Supreme Court is suo motto examining the issue of interest / interest on delayed interest being charged on loans during moratorium period as announced by the government. A reply from Finance Ministry has been sought. This migth put pressure on government to waiver off interest atleast on some loans.

ECB announced an increase in it's emergency bond purchase program by Euros600bn which was higher than market expectations stroking risk on rally. US Fed is expected to meet next week and hopes are running high, let's see how this high jobs print changes the tone.

US Non-Farm Payrolls data came at surprisingly strong2.5Million jobs added against estimate of 7.5Million job losses.

Page 3: Market Masala…

Go India AdvisorsWeekly Newsletter

Global Markets – risk on trade continuesUS non-farm payroll data surprised positively, pushing markets to all time high

Returns %

06-06-2020 3

Data for year 2020; except as specified

Index 1 Week 1 Month 1 Year YTD

30 May - 6 June 7 May - 6 June 7 June '19 - 6 June '20 1 Jan - 6 June

Dow 30 6.81% 13.55% 4.34% -5.00%

S&P 500 4.91% 10.85% 11.16% -1.14%

Nasdaq 3.42% 9.29% 26.76% 9.38%

FTSE 100 6.71% 9.24% -11.56% -14.03%

Nikkei 225 4.51% 16.21% 9.48% -3.35%

Shanghai 2.75% 2.06% 3.64% -3.91%

Hang Seng 7.88% 3.29% -8.14% -12.13%

KOSPI 7.50% 13.13% 5.29% -0.72%

Nifty 50 5.86% 10.25% -14.56% -16.65%

BSE Sensex 5.75% 9.04% -13.45% -16.89%

Page 4: Market Masala…

Go India AdvisorsWeekly Newsletter

06-06-2020 4

For more information: Click on the image.

Indian Markets for Week Ending 5th June 2020

Indian market – all round bullishnessMid-Caps join the rally; Focus on Opening up 1.0

Page 5: Market Masala…

Go India AdvisorsWeekly Newsletter

Indian Market – rally is broad-basingMarket looking to go back to touch 10500/11000

06-06-2020 5

1. Market closed strongly. More upside on cards to 10500/11000.2. Bank Nifty seems to be buoyed by strong demand for Kotak stock, as well as good results from SBI.

Pharma and Telcos continue to outperform. Small/mid caps are now starting to rally,3. Supports – 9950/98004. Resistances – 10350/10560

NIFTY 50

Page 6: Market Masala…

Go India AdvisorsWeekly Newsletter

06-06-2020

Voices that Matter – disbelief is growing

The current stock market rebound is “out of step with economic reality” –Luca Paolini, Chief Strategist, Pictet Asset Management

The stability in equity markets does not reflect the job losses and the insolvencies ahead of us globally– Danny Yong, Founding Partner, DymonAsia Capital

The market hitting new lows “is possible”…government and central bank stimulus packages have “taken on almost mythical proportions”–Thomas Clarke, Portfilio Manager, William Blair Funds

Page 7: Market Masala…

Go India AdvisorsWeekly Newsletter

RBI Consumer Confidence survey - weakExpectations for year ahead have deteriorated

06-06-2020 Source: RBI 7

Positive sentiments with sign of improvement compared to last round

Negative sentiments with sign of improvement compared to last round

Positive sentiments with sign of deterioration compared to last round

Negative sentiments with sign of deterioration compared to last round

Mar-20 May-20 Change Mar-20 May-20 Change

Economic Situation -23.9 -60.0 15.1 -11.7

Employment -30.5 -48.2 14.7 -5.9

Price Level -84.6 -75.8 -70.4 -66.4

Income -2.2 -40.8 44.2 18.1

Spending 69.2 43.2 72.3 55.6

Consumer Confidence Index 85.6 63.7 115.2 97.9

Current Perception

Compares with One Year Ago

One Year Ahead

Expectations Compared with

Current SituationsMain Variables

Summary Based on Net Responses

Page 8: Market Masala…

Go India AdvisorsWeekly Newsletter

10%

-4%

2%

-4%

14%

-14% -15%

33%

-8%

24%

12%8%

-27%

12%

FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 so far..

% change in Future Expectation Index BSE 500 Return

06-06-2020 8

Market returns follow the same emotionsHistorically markets have followed the direction of Consumer confidence

Consumer Confidence expectations collapsed in May’20 , will the BSE 500 Index rebound last?

Page 9: Market Masala…

Go India AdvisorsWeekly Newsletter

06-06-2020 9

Major FMCG Companies miss Street EstimatesLockdown disrupted the logistics worse than expected

Results of Major FMCG Companies

All figures in Y0Y%; except as stated

All figures in Y0Y%; except as stated

Companies Godrej HUL Marico Dabur Colgate

Results Below Below Meets Below Below

Consol idate -12% -10% -7% -12% -7%

Employee -17% -12% -8% -5% 22%

A&P Spends -20% 5% -18% 3% 0%

EBITDA -18% -15% -7% -23% -15%

EBITDA -144 -160 60 -260 -236

Page 10: Market Masala…

Go India AdvisorsWeekly Newsletter

06-06-2020 10

Return to growth – rural and hygiene focusLooks possible on low base of FY20

Covid 19 Strategy

Companies partnered with Udaan, Swiggy and Zomato to augment distribution

Adopted Go to Market Strategy by incentivising salesman during lockdowns, launched retailer

apps and took orders via whatsapp

Demand Scenario

Steady demand seen untill mid March; the quarterly sales significantly impacted by lockdown at

the end of the quarter . Expects growth in the rural markets to be ahead of urban on the back of

(a) less Covid-led disruption (b) government stimulus measures and (c) shift of migrant

population.

Utilisation Levels Most of the companies reached 70-80% normative utilisation across India

Foray into New Segments

Most companies like Godrej Consumers, Dabur, Jyothy Labs & Colgate forayed into Healthand

Hygiene Segment by launching Hand Sanitisers and Handwash to cater to high demand. This will

be a soon become a significant part of their product portfolio.

Cost and Cash Flow

Management

Extension of credit period to suppliers seen

Adopting cost cuts across value chains

Page 11: Market Masala…

Go India AdvisorsWeekly Newsletter

06-06-2020 11

Consumer survey – inflationary expectationsDisrupted supply chain is increasing the costs, will margins drop?

Net Responses on Price Levels

-77.3 -78.4-82.8 -83.9

-88.7-84.6

-75.8

-59.3-63.9 -65.6

-70.1-66.7

-70.4-66.4

May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20

Current Perception One Year Ahead Expectations

Page 12: Market Masala…

Go India AdvisorsWeekly Newsletter

06-06-2020 12

Normal Monsoons to boost FMCG Companies IMD Predicts Normal Monsoons in 2020

FMCG Companies Sales with respect to Monsoons

3%

19%20%

16%

10% 11%

-4%

5%

7%

10%

4%

11%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E

1 Year Forward Nifty FMCG Sales Growth %

Drought

Normal Monsoon

Normal Monsoon but includes CovidImpact

Drought

Page 13: Market Masala…

Go India AdvisorsWeekly Newsletter

06-06-2020 13

(21,354)

27,814

(56,263)(73,833)

(30,329)

65,872 37,125

90,835 109,646

42,229

83,709

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Note : all above years are CY and not FY.

DIIs –surprisingly missing in a big weekWhere they making room to pay for RIL rights issue?

DII Flows in Indian Equities over the Years (INR Cr)

Weekly DII Flows in Indian Equities in CY20 (INR Cr)

1,203

(1,928) (2,621)

6,389

2,277

(793) (573)

15,986

10,093

17,596 16,472

4,308 6,902

(1,801)(340) (649)

2,459

(20)

1,075 3,939

6,362

(1,600)

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week10

Week11

Week12

Week13

Week14

Week15

Week16

Week17

Week18

Week19

Week20

Week21

ThisWeek

Note : Week 1 starts from January 6th , 2020

Page 14: Market Masala…

Go India AdvisorsWeekly Newsletter

06-06-2020 14

Note : Week 1 starts from January 6th , 2020

133,047

(3,417)

129,319 112,538

97,054

18,356 18,783

52,615

(34,163)

100,150

(17,559)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Note : all above years are CY and not FY

(162)

8,164 5,119

(6,152)

13,147

512 2,307

(13,112)(9,137)

(19,039)(21,442)

(5,388)(9,675)

4,985

(2,744) (2,172)

2,836

18,018

(5,939) (6,894)

7,814

19,669

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week10

Week11

Week12

Week13

Week14

Week15

Week16

Week17

Week18

Week19

Week20

Week21

ThisWeek

FIIs – still to get conviction back on IndiaFIIs flows driven by large blocks namely of HUVL/Bharti/Kotak bank

FII Flows in Indian Equities over the Years (INR Cr)

Weekly FII Flows in Indian Equities in CY20 (INR Cr)

Page 15: Market Masala…

Go India AdvisorsWeekly Newsletter

06-06-2020 15

FIIs – largely sellers since 1st MarchExcept buying the large HUVL block

Sectoral FII Flows in Indian Equities (March 01 - May 15 2020) INR Cr

(5,775)

(25,548)

(2,731)(911) (322)

(3,969)

345

(2,070)(484)

17,669

96 6

(2,284) (2,943) (3,303)(359) (410)

(7,746)

(1,869) (2,303) (1,440) (2,508)

Auto

mo

biles &

Au

to C

omp

on

en

ts

Finan

cial Services

Cap

ital Go

od

s

Ch

em

icals & P

etrochem

icals

Co

al

Co

nstru

ction

Materials

Co

nsu

mer D

urab

les

Foo

d, Beverages &

Tob

acco

Ho

tels, Restau

rants &

Tourism

Ho

useh

old

& P

erson

al Pro

du

cts

Insuran

ce

Media

Metals &

Min

ing

Oil &

Gas

Ph

armaceu

ticals & B

iotech

nolo

gy

Realty

Retailin

g

Softw

are & Services

Telecom Services

Textiles, App

arels & A

ccessories

Transp

ortatio

n

Utilities

Page 16: Market Masala…

Go India AdvisorsWeekly Newsletter

06-06-2020 16

(4,090) (4,490)

919

(904)

8,035 6,059

(4,483)(9,669)

(1,764)

(16,498)

(32,143)

(5,904) (5,845) (4,498)(1,828)

1,933

(6,397)(2,984)

(12,609)

(2,326) (2,588) (1,335)

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week10

Week11

Week12

Week13

Week14

Week15

Week16

Week17

Week18

Week19

Week20

Week21

ThisWeek

46,478 40,770 36,164

(51,171)

159,882

46,921

(44,297)

147,825

(46,525)

24,058

(106,059)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

FIIs sell off – continues in Debt Markets

Weekly FII Flows in Indian Debt Market in CY20 (INR Cr)

FII Flows in Indian Debt Market over the Years (INR Cr)

Note : Week 1 starts from January 6th , 2020

Note : all above years are CY and not FY

Page 17: Market Masala…

Go India AdvisorsWeekly Newsletter

06-06-2020 17

Ownership pattern among sectorsWill IT catch fancy of retail investors on improving US

Nifty 500- Sector Wise Ownership Pattern across Key Stakeholders

14% 13% 14% 13% 15%26%

12% 11% 10% 13% 9%18%

17% 16% 14% 13%

29%16%

20%31%

15%16%

13%

17%

54% 55% 59%54%

37%32% 57%

43%

60% 55% 62%

57%

15% 16% 14%19% 19%

26%

11% 16% 15% 17% 15%8%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Auto Basic Materials Capital Goods Consumer Finance Infrastructure IT Media andEntertainment

Miscellaneous Pharma Retailing Utility

DII Fii Promoter Retail

Page 18: Market Masala…

Go India AdvisorsWeekly Newsletter

18

Nifty 50 – earnings trendCompanies focussed on sustaining EBITDA margin

* For Q4 only 27 companies reported their results which were considered

Nifty 50 EBITDA Margin (%)

Nifty 50 PAT YoY (%) Nifty 50 EBITDA YoY (%)

Nifty 50 Sales YoY (%)

32%

37%35%

23%

7%

0% -1% 0%Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20

31%

18%

14%

18%

5%7% 8% 9%

Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20

20% 19% 19%21% 20% 21% 20%

28%

Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20

12%

6%

-21%

12%

4%

-5%

46%

-20%

Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20

Page 19: Market Masala…

Go India AdvisorsWeekly Newsletter

19

BSE 500 – earnings trendEBITDA margin at 2year high

* For Q4 only 189 companies reported their results which were considered

BSE 500 EBITDA Margin (%)

BSE 500 PAT YoY (%) BSE 500 EBITDA YoY (%)

BSE 500 Sales YoY (%)

25%

30%28%

15%

7%

2% 0%

-2%Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20

28%

17%15%

18%

8%

4%

8%

2%

Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20

20% 19% 19%21% 20% 20% 21%

24%

Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20

18%

-1%

-19%

16%

0%

-45%

26%

-28%

Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20

Page 20: Market Masala…

Go India AdvisorsWeekly Newsletter

BSE 500 - Q4FY20 Sector Wise Result Trend

20

Re

ve

nu

e G

row

thE

BIT

DA

Gro

wth

PAT

Gro

wth

Bank Finance InsuranceRatings

15%

CRISIL

20%

CRISIL

3%

CRISIL

7%

5%4%

2%

ICICI LombardGeneral

SBI Lifempany ICICIPrudentialLifempany

HDFC Life

15%

7%

-24% -25%SBI Lifempany ICICI Lombard

GeneralHDFC Life ICICI

PrudentialLifempany

24%16%

-15%

-32%ICICI Lombard

GeneralSBI Lifempany HDFC Life ICICI

PrudentialLifempany

55%

35%

24% 23%

14% 13% 11% 10% 9% 9%6%

113%

46%40% 38%

32% 27% 23% 19% 16% 16% 14%

0% 0%

16%6% 3%

-4%-12%

-21% -23%-29%

-50%

40% 38% 36% 33% 31%18% 15%

8% 7% 3% 2% 2%

-2% -5%-17% -20%

-31%-40% -42%

0% 0%

66% 61%43%

25% 17% 11% 4%

-4% -5% -7% -12% -12% -15% -17% -25% -31%

-81%

0% 0% 0%

79% 44%28%

12% 10% 0%

-7% -10% -19% -28% -30%-61% -62% -67%

-97% -97%

Page 21: Market Masala…

Go India AdvisorsWeekly Newsletter

BSE500 - Q4FY20 Sector Wise Result trend

21

Re

ve

nu

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row

thE

BIT

DA

Gro

wth

PAT

Gro

wth

IT Media

0%

597%

16%

Network 18 Media& Investment

TV18 Broadcast TV Today Network

1256%

267%

15%

Network 18 Media& Investment

TV18 Broadcast TV Today Network

21%

19%

18%

TV18 Broadcast Network 18 Media& Investment

TV Today Network

22% 21%

16% 16%14%

12% 11% 11% 11% 11%8% 8% 7% 5% 4% 4%

-4%-8%

Hexaware LNTInfotech

HCL Mphasis NIIT Firstsource Mindtree Persistent Sonata KPIT Tata Elxsi Infosys TechMahindra

TataConsultancy

Services

Oracle Wipro Zensar Cyient

50%

33% 32%23% 19% 18%

11% 8% 8% 5% 4% 3% 2%

-1%-8% -11%

-22%

-40%

Hexaware Mphasis HCL NIIT LNTInfotech

Firstsource Mindtree Infosys Tata Elxsi Persistent TataConsultancy

Services

Oracle Zensar Sonata Wipro KPIT TechMahindra

Cyient

33% 26% 24% 23%15% 13% 13%

6% 4%

-1% -1% -5% -6% -7%-13% -17%

-37%

-73%Mphasis Hexaware HCL KPIT Tata Elxsi NIIT LNT

InfotechInfosys Mindtree Tata

ConsultancyServices

Persistent Sonata Wipro Firstsource Zensar Oracle TechMahindra

Cyient

Page 22: Market Masala…

Go India AdvisorsWeekly Newsletter

BSE500 - Q4FY20 Sector Wise Result Trend

22

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BIT

DA

Gro

wth

PAT

Gro

wth

Consumer Durables Healthcare Electricals

1%

-13% -15% -19% -21%

-80%

0%

25%16%

-17%

-32%

-62%

0%

32%

11%

-27% -31%

-89%

32% 32% 30%

14%10% 9%

5% 3% 3% 2% 0% 0%

0% -1% -1% -2% -4%

-20%

81% 70% 62% 47%17% 15% 13% 13% 2%

-3% -9% -11% -12% -13% -24% -31% -31%

-93%

0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

155%

75%55% 45%

14%

-2% -2% -6% -8%-31% -32% -34% -35%

60%

-55%Polycab Sterlite

-14%

-35%Polycab Sterlite

31%

-31%Polycab Sterlite

Page 23: Market Masala…

Go India AdvisorsWeekly Newsletter

BSE500 - Q4FY20 Sector Wise Result Trend

23

Re

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thE

BIT

DA

Gro

wth

PAT

Gro

wth

Plastic Product Telecom

20%

15%

0%

Hathway Cable &Datacom

Bharti Airtel Bharti Infratel

63%

44%

14%

Bharti Airtel Hathway Cable &Datacom

Bharti Infratel

NA

255%

18%

Bharti Airtel Hathway Cable &Datacom

Bharti Infratel

-33%

Hindustan Zinc

-27%Hindustan Zinc

-20%

Hindustan Zinc

Non Ferrous Metals

-7%

-19%

-74%SupremeIndustries

Astral PolyTechnik

Essel Propack

33%

-21%

-53%SupremeIndustries

Astral PolyTechnik

Essel Propack

4%

-20%

-37%SupremeIndustries

Astral PolyTechnik

Essel Propack

Hospitality

17%

-3%Lemon Tree Hotels Mahindra Holidays & Resorts

23%

22%

Lemon Tree Hotels Mahindra Holidays & Resorts

0% 0%

Lemon Tree Hotels Mahindra Holidays & Resorts

Page 24: Market Masala…

Go India AdvisorsWeekly Newsletter

BSE 500 - Q4FY20 Sector Wise Result Trend

24

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BIT

DA

Gro

wth

PAT

Gro

wth

Capital Goods Construction Materials Realty

NA NA

-19%

MahindraLifespace

Developers

Indiabulls RealEstate

Godrej Properties

NA NA

-11%MahindraLifespace

Developers

Indiabulls RealEstate

Godrej Properties

10%

-57%

-94%Godrej Properties MahindraLifespace

Developers

Indiabulls RealEstate

26%

8%

-5%

-20% -21%

Nesco L&T GMMPfaudler

Havells India Siemens

17%

8%4%

-23%

-36%L&T Nesco GMM

PfaudlerHavells India Siemens

7%3%

-11% -13%

-38%

L&T Nesco Havells India GMMPfaudler

Siemens

-2%

-6%

-9%

-11% -11%

-13% -13%Shree

CementHeidelberg

CementAmbuja

CementsACC JK Lakshmi

CementOrient

CementUltratechCement

53%

23%

6% 6%

-1%-7%

-16%JK LakshmiCement

ShreeCement

AmbujaCements

HeidelbergCement

UltratechCement

ACC OrientCement

199%

146%

57%

9% 7%

-6%-29%

UltratechCement

JK LakshmiCement

ShreeCement

HeidelbergCement

AmbujaCements

ACC OrientCement

Infrastructure

0%

-4%

-38%Kalpataru PowerTransmission

KEC International NCC

-8%

-25%

-40%

KEC International Kalpataru PowerTransmission

NCC

-3%

-62%

-90%KEC International NCC Kalpataru Power

Transmission

Page 25: Market Masala…

Go India AdvisorsWeekly Newsletter

BSE 500 - Q4FY20 Sector Wise Result Trend

25

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PAT

Gro

wth

ChemicalsCrude Oil

8%

Reliance Industries

-37%

-5462%

Reliance Industries Chennai PetroleumCorporation

82%

40%31%

9% 6% 5% 2% 1%

-9% -12% -17% -25%

NA NA

409%

50% 44% 31% 8%

-5% -12% -16% -35% -51%

NA

166% 162% 112%88%

26%

-23% -29% -40% -50% -53% -66%

-2%

-9%

-14%Reliance Rain Chennai Petroleum

Corporation

Power

NA NA NA NA NA

94%

21%

-24%

-60%Adani Green

EnergyTorrentPower

JSW Energy Adani Power Tata PowerCompany

RelianceInfrastructure

Indian EnergyExchange

ReliancePower

AdaniTransmission

31% 15% 12% 11% 10% 6%

-3%

-29%

-82%Adani

TransmissionTorrentPower

Indian EnergyExchange

RelianceInfrastructure

JSW Energy Tata PowerCompany

Adani GreenEnergy

ReliancePower

Adani Power

25% 23%

13%

2% 2%

-7% -8% -8% -9%

AdaniTransmission

Indian EnergyExchange

ReliancePower

Adani GreenEnergy

TorrentPower

JSW Energy Adani Power Tata PowerCompany

RelianceInfrastructure

Page 26: Market Masala…

Go India AdvisorsWeekly Newsletter

BSE 500 - Q4FY20 Sector Wise Result Trend

26

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PAT

Gro

wth

Retailing

24% 21%

8%

-4%-9%

AvenueSupermarts

Trent Vaibhav Global Aditya BirlaFashion and

Retail

Bata

219%

29% 28% 17% 12%

Trent Vaibhav Global Bata AvenueSupermarts

Aditya BirlaFashion and

Retail

0%

302%

42% 22%

-57%Aditya BirlaFashion and

Retail

Trent AvenueSupermarts

Vaibhav Global Bata

FMCG

23%19% 17%

11%4% 3%

-6% -7% -7% -10% -12% -12% -13%

-28%

VarunBeverages

VST GodrejAgrovet

Nestle Jubilant HeritageFoods

P & G Marico Colgate HUL GodrejConsumer

Dabur Gillette VIP

0%

66%

35%

19% 16%1%

-2% -6% -9% -10% -12% -13% -18%

-44%Heritage

FoodsGodrejAgrovet

VarunBeverages

Jubilant VST Nestle Marico HUL P & G VIP Colgate GodrejConsumer

Dabur Gillette

0%

53%33%

14%3% 1%

-4%-24%

-40% -43% -50% -58% -62%-75%

HeritageFoods

VarunBeverages

VST Nestle Colgate P & G HUL Dabur Gillette GodrejAgrovet

Marico Jubilant VIP GodrejConsumer

Agri

35%

12%

TataConsumerProducts

Tata Coffee

58%

25%

TataConsumerProducts

Tata Coffee

NA

35%

Tata ConsumerProducts

Tata Coffee

Page 27: Market Masala…

Go India AdvisorsWeekly Newsletter

BSE500 - Q4FY20 Sector Wise Result Trend

27

Auto & Ancillary Logistics MiscPaper

-13%JK Paper

-18%JK Paper

-9%

JK PaperRe

ve

nu

e G

row

thE

BIT

DA

Gro

wth

PAT

Gro

wth

-5%-7%

-10%

-20%

Adani Ports andSpecial

Economic Zone

Blue DartExpress

TCI Express MahindraLogistics

45%

-4%

-20%

-56%

Blue DartExpress

MahindraLogistics

TCI Express Adani Ports andSpecial

Economic Zone

NA

-13%

-59%

-74%Blue DartExpress

TCI Express MahindraLogistics

Adani Ports andSpecial

Economic Zone

-8% -11% -12%-15% -16% -16% -17% -18% -18% -21%

-23% -24%

-39%

6% 6% 6% 5% 4% 4%

0%

-22% -23% -23%-29% -29%

-37%

10% 6%

-7% -8% -8%-19%

-26% -29%-40% -42%

-65%

-80% -86%

30%

14% 13%

1%

-11%

Quess Corp SyngeneInternational

Security AndIntelligence

Services

Just Dial Delta Corp

61%

24% 24%10%

-40%

Security AndIntelligence

Services

SyngeneInternational

Just Dial Quess Corp Delta Corp

0% 0%

22% 20%

-49%Quess Corp Security And

IntelligenceServices

Just Dial SyngeneInternational

Delta Corp

Page 28: Market Masala…

Go India AdvisorsWeekly Newsletter

Q4FY20 Results - this weekBharti Airtel rings the right bell

28

All Figures In INR Crore, except as stated

Company Name Net Sales YOY QOQ Column1 PAT YOY QOQQOQ 3 EPS (TTM) CMP PE (TTM) P/BV MCAP Result Type

Bharti Airtel 23,723 15% 8% -5,069 -1040% -721% -58.99 585 0.0 4.1 3,19,096 Consolidated

Kotak Mahindra Bank 8,434 6% 1% 1,952 -4% -16% 43.43 1340 30.9 3.6 2,65,081 Consolidated

ICICI Bank 21,741 11% 1% 1,613 6% -68% 14.77 357 24.2 1.9 2,31,334 Consolidated

Maruti Suzuki 18,208 -15% -12% 1,280 -29% -18% 187.9 5747 30.6 3.5 1,73,611 Consolidated

Nestle 3,325 11% 6% 525 14% 11% 210.72 17098 81.1 67.1 1,64,850 Standalone

HCL Tech. 18,587 16% 2% 3,172 24% 8% 40.75 576 14.1 3.1 1,56,280 Consolidated

Bajaj Finance 7,227 36% 3% 948 -19% -41% 87.48 2393 27.4 4.5 1,43,978 Consolidated

Ultratech Cement 10,746 -13% 4% 3,241 204% 356% 201.47 3871 19.2 2.9 1,11,736 Consolidated

Bajaj Finserv 13,294 2% -9% 539 -62% -73% 211.43 5235 24.8 2.7 83,417 Consolidated

Bajaj Auto 6,816 -8% -11% 1,205 -8% -4% 180.11 2777 15.4 3.7 80,366 Consolidated

Shree Cement 3,415 -2% 9% 537 57% 72% 425.67 22101 51.9 6.1 79,744 Consolidated

SBI Life Insuran 11,863 5% 1% 531 16% 36% 14.22 797 56.0 9.0 79,682 Standalone

Hindustan Zinc 4,391 -20% -6% 1,339 -33% -17% 16.11 173 10.7 1.8 73,077 Standalone

Adani Ports &Special 2,921 -5% -12% 344 -74% -75% 18.52 341 18.4 2.7 69,293 Consolidated

Dr. Reddys Lab 4,449 10% 1% 771 75% 239% 121.92 4026 33.0 4.3 66,899 Consolidated

Godrej Consumer Prod 2,154 -12% -22% 230 -75% -48% 14.64 650 44.4 8.4 66,399 Consolidated

ICICI Lombard Gen. 2,346 7% -5% 282 24% -4% 26.27 1300 49.5 9.6 59,079 Standalone

SBI Cards AndPayment 2,433 23% 0% 84 -66% 0% 13.26 626 47.2 11.0 58,765 Standalone

HDFC Asset Mngt. Co 476 -2% -9% 250 -10% -29% 59.32 2728 46.0 14.4 58,053 Standalone

Cipla 4,376 -1% 0% 242 -35% -31% 19.18 651 33.9 3.3 52,496 Consolidated

Biocon 1,581 3% -10% 168 -34% -28% 6.24 390 62.5 7.0 46,752 Consolidated

Adani Green Energy 696 2% 38% 64 173% 150% -0.15 284 0.0 23.6 44,449 Consolidated

United Spirits 6,419 -12% -18% 50 -57% -78% 9.07 586 64.6 11.4 42,581 Consolidated

Marico 1,496 -7% -18% 200 -50% -28% 7.91 326 41.3 13.9 42,146 Consolidated

Siemens 2,838 -21% 6% 176 -38% -34% 28.8 1149 39.9 4.5 40,934 Consolidated

Bandhan Bank 2,846 55% 5% 517 -21% -29% 18.78 247 13.2 2.6 39,846 Standalone

Colgate Palmol. (I) 1,071 -7% -7% 204 3% 3% 30.02 1360 45.3 23.2 36,983 Standalone

Yes Bank 5,217 -34% -7% -3,632 -141% 80% -18.11 29 0.0 1.7 36,145 Consolidated

Havells India 2,217 -20% -2% 178 -11% -12% 11.75 568 48.3 8.2 35,536 Consolidated

Tata Consumer Produc 2,405 35% 23% -50 -154% -136% 5.02 380 75.7 2.5 34,800 Consolidated

Page 29: Market Masala…

Go India AdvisorsWeekly Newsletter

Q4FY20 Results - this weekL&T Infotech – got the code right

29

All Figures In INR Crore, except as stated

Company Name Net Sales YOY QOQ Column1 PAT YOY QOQQOQ 3 EPS (TTM) CMP PE (TTM) P/BV MCAP Result Type

Bosch 2,237 -18% -12% 81 -80% -32% 220.23 11499 52.2 3.7 33,914 Consolidated

Motherson Sumi Sys 15,159 -12% -3% 144 -65% -55% 3.71 104 28.1 2.9 32,827 Consolidated

P&G Hygiene 656 -6% -24% 91 1% -33% 130.82 10055 76.9 30.0 32,639 Standalone

L&T Infotech 3,012 21% 7% 428 13% 13% 87.27 1856 21.3 6.0 32,335 Consolidated

Bajaj Hold & Invest 110 33% 27% -104 -525% -409% 268.84 2435 9.1 1.0 27,097 Consolidated

Piramal Enterprises 3,341 -2% -12% -2,556 -659% -527% 1.07 1127 0.0 0.8 25,409 Consolidated

Glaxosmithkline Phar 776 3% 0% 138 -6% 121% 5.5 1380 250.9 12.8 23,384 Consolidated

Jubilant FoodWorks 909 4% -15% 33 -58% -68% 21.22 1686 79.5 19.8 22,248 Consolidated

Oracle Finl. Service 1,264 4% 9% 269 -17% -41% 170.12 2542 14.9 3.3 21,849 Consolidated

Kansai Nerolac Paint 1,080 -12% -19% 65 -23% -44% 9.67 400 41.3 5.7 21,541 Consolidated

Godrej Properties 1,163 10% 204% 129 -19% 80% 10.6 807 76.1 4.3 20,337 Consolidated

Adani Transmission 3,187 25% 15% 5 -97% -97% 5.45 182 33.5 3.8 20,039 Consolidated

Voltas 2,090 1% 40% 179 11% 68% 15.63 580 37.1 4.5 19,186 Consolidated

Sanofi India 785 9% -5% 85 -8% -12% 176.59 8134 46.1 7.4 18,733 Standalone

ABB India 1,522 -18% -22% 66 -26% 2% 13.18 878 66.6 5.2 18,607 Standalone

Varun Beverages 1,699 23% 37% 60 53% 211% 16.74 633 37.8 5.4 18,268 Consolidated

TVS Motor 4,105 -17% -14% 85 -42% -47% 13.15 359 27.3 5.2 17,068 Consolidated

Nippon Life India As 275 -20% -9% 4 -97% -97% 6.78 276 40.7 6.5 16,907 Consolidated

Adani Enterprises 13,429 1% 23% 19 -91% -94% 10.35 153 14.7 1.0 16,778 Consolidated

Torrent Power 2,984 2% -3% -274 -1205% -165% 24.43 345 14.1 1.8 16,572 Consolidated

Mphasis 2,346 16% 3% 353 33% 20% 63.52 885 13.9 2.8 16,505 Consolidated

Gillette India 407 -13% -11% 52 -40% -26% 70.9 4988 70.4 18.8 16,253 Standalone

Alembic Pharma 1,207 30% 0% 204 55% -11% 43.97 853 19.4 5.0 16,079 Consolidated

Adani Gas 490 -1% -5% 122 61% 7% 3.97 135 34.0 10.1 14,853 Consolidated

AU Small Fin. Bank 1,183 35% 6% 122 3% -36% 22.11 483 21.8 3.4 14,730 Standalone

Syngene Internation. 607 14% 17% 120 20% 31% 10.3 368 35.7 6.8 14,726 Consolidated

Crompt.Greaves Cons. 1,026 -15% -4% 102 -27% -37% 7.91 228 28.8 9.7 14,305 Consolidated

L&T Technology Serv. 1,447 8% 2% 206 7% 0% 78.31 1332 17.0 5.0 13,919 Consolidated

Page 30: Market Masala…

Go India AdvisorsWeekly Newsletter

Q4FY20 Results - this weekOrient cement got the mix right

30

All Figures In INR Crore, except as stated

Company Name Net Sales YOY QOQ Column1 PAT YOY QOQQOQ 3 EPS (TTM) CMP PE (TTM) P/BV MCAP Result Type

Mahindra Logistics 812 -20% -11% 10 -59% -37% 7.66 294 38.4 3.9 2,106 Consolidated

Prism Johnson 1,483 -15% 1% -47 -219% -2798% -0.44 42 0.0 2.0 2,099 Consolidated

Elantas Beck India 105 7% 13% 13 12% 26% 64.26 2339 36.4 4.7 1,854 Standalone

NCC 2,334 -38% 2% 67 -62% -35% 5.52 30 5.5 0.4 1,848 Consolidated

Lemon Tree Hotels 176 17% -12% -18 -152% -248% -0.12 23 0.0 1.2 1,798 Consolidated

Advanced Enzyme 110 0% -2% 33 -2% -5% 11.58 156 13.4 2.1 1,737 Consolidated

JK Paper 736 -9% -10% 93 -18% -30% 26.28 96 3.6 0.7 1,704 Consolidated

Equitas Holdings 790 31% 7% 16 -61% -80% 5.99 48 8.1 0.6 1,654 Consolidated

Kennametal India 184 -22% -12% 10 -29% -27% 29.53 733 24.8 2.9 1,612 Consolidated

Huhtamaki PPL 575 -9% -15% 27 -35% -60% 20.57 211 10.3 2.2 1,595 Standalone

KPIT Technologies 556 11% 1% 38 23% -7% 5.35 58 10.8 1.5 1,586 Consolidated

Supreme Petrochem 663 -19% 7% 24 -40% 1034% 10.64 163 15.3 2.3 1,574 Standalone

Swaraj Engines 175 -9% 3% 16 -5% 23% 58.56 1295 22.1 6.7 1,571 Standalone

Solara Active Pharma 297 -23% -14% 18 -32% -57% 42.68 556 13.0 1.4 1,494 Consolidated

Tata Coffee 517 12% 3% 24 35% -43% 4.41 79 18.0 1.2 1,480 Consolidated

Astec Lifesciences 181 35% 45% 31 145% 156% 24.28 736 30.3 5.8 1,440 Consolidated

Accelya Solutions 114 7% 0% 24 -11% -12% 73.47 943 12.8 5.4 1,408 Consolidated

Gabriel India 425 -17% -7% 27 54% 51% 5.9 93 15.8 2.1 1,334 Standalone

GHCL 750 -17% -11% 85 -29% -12% 41.74 129 3.1 0.6 1,230 Consolidated

Orient Cement 655 -13% 16% 44 -29% 877% 4.23 58 13.6 1.1 1,180 Standalone

R Systems Intl. 209 7% -2% 10 -23% -59% 4.62 98 21.3 3.4 1,176 Consolidated

TV Today Network 208 18% -6% 28 16% -26% 23.36 190 8.1 1.3 1,135 Consolidated

Heritage Foods 653 3% -3% -210 -1133% -1855% -34.55 241 0.0 2.4 1,117 Consolidated

IIFL Securities 197 -5% 4% 37 0% -20% 7.32 34 4.7 1.2 1,093 Consolidated

Mahindra Life. Dev 101 -57% 29% -175 -1311% -745% -37.66 203 0.0 0.6 1,044 Consolidated

Majesco 277 6% 4% 31 195% 4% 24.05 354 14.7 1.5 1,018 Consolidated

LT Foods 1,198 19% 20% 61 186% 25% 5.77 30 5.2 0.7 960 Consolidated

Chennai Petrol. Corp 8,585 -14% -28% -1,638 -5462% -25294% -138.1 63 0.0 0.7 937 Consolidated

Ugro Capital 32 105% 11% 20 1915% 195% 2.77 126 45.7 1.0 892 Standalone

Page 31: Market Masala…

Go India AdvisorsWeekly Newsletter

Q4FY20 Results - this weekRadico Khaitan 0n a high

31

All Figures In INR Crore, except as stated

Company Name Net Sales YOY QOQ Column1 PAT YOY QOQQOQ 3 EPS (TTM) CMP PE (TTM) P/BV MCAP Result Type

Radico Khaitan 2,209 12% 10% 38 -2% -31% 17.04 346 20.3 3.0 4,622 Standalone

Rallis India 346 2% -35% 1 -50% -98% 9.51 236 24.8 3.3 4,587 Consolidated

Sterlite Technologie 1,160 -35% -4% 77 -53% 49% 10.74 110 10.2 2.3 4,438 Consolidated

Persistent Systems 926 11% 0% 84 -1% -5% 44.53 572 12.9 1.8 4,375 Consolidated

Quess Corp 2,995 30% 2% -621 -838% -918% -30.13 283 0.0 1.8 4,171 Consolidated

Heidelberg Cement 510 -6% -7% 66 9% 3% 11.83 173 14.6 3.0 3,915 Standalone

CEAT 1,573 -11% -11% 49 -19% 3% 57.17 929 16.3 1.3 3,759 Consolidated

Tata Invest Corp 21 -17% -13% -10 -149% -175% 17.89 743 41.5 0.5 3,758 Consolidated

Trident 991 -30% -13% 39 -57% 0% 0.67 7 11.1 1.2 3,756 Consolidated

Vaibhav Global 498 8% -12% 40 22% -39% 58.81 1097 18.7 4.7 3,548 Consolidated

NESCO 118 26% 2% 53 3% -23% 33.19 463 13.9 2.4 3,259 Consolidated

JK Lakshmi Cement 1,137 -11% 6% 99 146% 94% 21.08 249 11.8 1.7 2,925 Consolidated

Wockhardt 687 -20% -21% 49 278% 154% -6.25 257 0.0 1.1 2,843 Consolidated

Tasty Bite Eatables 115 35% 1% 9 6% -38% 159.24 10951 68.8 17.2 2,810 Standalone

Maharashtra Scooters 6 87% 34% 107 15656% 4748% 157.45 2379 15.1 0.3 2,719 Standalone

Zensar Technologies 1,018 -4% 0% 72 -13% 75% 11.69 117 10.0 1.3 2,633 Consolidated

Delta Corp 181 -11% -12% 29 -50% -48% 6.85 96 14.0 1.3 2,594 Consolidated

TCI Express 238 -10% -11% 19 -13% -26% 23.22 658 28.3 7.5 2,522 Standalone

Rain Industries 2,898 -9% 2% 114 22% -6% 12.76 75 5.8 0.5 2,507 Consolidated

Cyient 1,074 -8% -3% 47 -73% -58% 31.14 220 7.1 1.0 2,424 Consolidated

Sonata Software 929 11% -25% 62 -5% -19% 26.33 222 8.4 3.5 2,338 Consolidated

Capri Global Capital 182 3% 0% 35 -28% -29% 9.21 133 14.4 1.5 2,328 Consolidated

Aarti Drugs 450 -2% -5% 59 115% 112% 60.69 997 16.4 3.6 2,324 Consolidated

Mahindra Holi.&Resor 617 -3% 5% 38 -27% 1797% 5.07 172 34.0 -4.2 2,302 Consolidated

Tata Steel BSL 4,274 -23% -15% 6 103% 101% -5.75 21 0.0 0.1 2,285 Consolidated

Birlasoft 907 15% 9% 69 5% -5% 8.1 82 10.1 1.2 2,262 Consolidated

Hawkins Cookers 146 -21% -24% 9 -31% -58% 137.09 4258 31.1 16.1 2,252 Standalone

Indiabulls Real Est. 116 -94% -91% -110 -196% -323% 2.65 47 17.7 0.6 2,130 Consolidated

Page 32: Market Masala…

Go India AdvisorsWeekly Newsletter

Q4FY20 Results - this weekShree Digvijay cement – rising from the phoenix

32

All Figures In INR Crore, except as stated

Company Name Net Sales YOY QOQ Column1 PAT YOY QOQQOQ 3 EPS (TTM) CMP PE (TTM) P/BV MCAP Result Type

Matrimony.Com 94 9% 5% 7 -4% 22% 12.97 359 27.7 3.6 818 Consolidated

Cigniti Technologies 233 13% 8% 29 -2% 4% 43.67 289 6.6 3.0 805 Consolidated

JMC Projects (India) 976 0% 1% -50 -221% -297% 0.07 45 633.8 1.4 761 Consolidated

Monnet Ispat &Energy 617 16% 6% -104 30% 24% -10.48 16 0.0 1.1 728 Consolidated

Foseco India 72 -14% -2% 6 -29% -5% 50.07 1074 21.5 3.9 686 Standalone

Reliance Power 1,798 13% 8% -4,383 -23% -9164% -14.53 2 0.0 0.1 682 Consolidated

Quick Heal Tech 64 -25% -2% 8 -71% -55% 11.59 106 9.1 1.1 677 Consolidated

Paushak 29 -24% -24% 6 -34% -42% 113.27 2153 19.0 4.4 664 Standalone

Tata Teleservice(Mah 259 -18% 1% -874 -251% -216% -19 3 0.0 0.0 618 Standalone

Wendt India 26 -29% -23% -1 -7800% -135% 50.15 3027 60.4 4.4 605 Consolidated

ADF Foods 80 24% 13% 13 320% 21% 21.36 293 13.7 2.9 587 Consolidated

Apcotex Inds 116 -24% 6% 3 -80% 315% 3.21 108 33.5 2.2 557 Standalone

Reliance Infra 3,626 -9% -8% -122 93% -134% 29.32 21 0.7 0.1 554 Consolidated

Xchanging Solutions 46 -6% -1% 18 9% 189% 4.91 46 9.5 1.0 517 Consolidated

Neuland Laboratories 192 11% -6% -9 -240% -184% 12.64 402 31.8 0.7 516 Consolidated

Shree DigvijayCement 128 17% 6% 23 1132% 145% 3.99 36 9.1 1.9 515 Standalone

MPS 76 -16% -9% 9 -58% -27% 32.15 257 8.0 1.3 479 Consolidated

Muthoot Capital Serv 147 7% -3% 14 -39% -27% 36.77 291 7.9 0.9 478 Standalone

Saint-Gobain Sekurit 26 -35% -31% 2 -42% -53% 1.47 50 34.3 3.6 460 Standalone

NELCO 61 19% 9% 6 36% 59% 6.3 196 31.2 6.8 448 Consolidated

5Paisa Capital 35 69% 33% -2 -132% 21% -3.1 168 0.0 3.1 428 Consolidated

Apollo Pipes 94 5% -6% 6 17% -7% 21.76 323 14.8 1.4 423 Standalone

Subex 104 2% 9% 32 148% 110% -4.79 7 0.0 0.8 418 Consolidated

GNA Axles 181 -25% -16% 5 -74% -39% 24.56 193 7.9 6.5 415 Consolidated

Mahindra EPC Irrigat 83 12% 0% 10 75% 23% 8.29 137 16.6 2.2 381 Consolidated

JP Associate 1,876 -19% -10% 3,068 661% 555% 4.5 1 0.3 0.2 362 Consolidated

Udaipur Cement Works 159 -20% 0% -2 36% -354% 0.5 10 20.5 1.7 317 Standalone

Datamatic Global Ser 310 1% 1% 3 -87% -78% 10.83 52 4.8 0.4 304 Consolidated

Page 33: Market Masala…

Go India AdvisorsWeekly Newsletter

What GIA Analysts are Saying

33

GIA Analysts are young, energetic people who

are deeply passionate about research. They

argue fiercely, work with high integrity and can

have wittiest conversations. Want to know more

about them.

Read here: https://goindiaadvisors.com/team

Featured Analysts:

06-06-2020

[email protected] and MBA. Rajat is a typical ‘Delhi Boy’ and a foodie. A Marwari by design but Punjabi by default.

NBFCs – business under COVID – 19…

This week, Rajat dwells on the key priorities for NBFC under Covid 19 and how they are dealing with it. Read full note here.

[email protected] and CFA, loves good Marwari food. Has an amazing sense of humour.

IRON ORE: Two sectors buck COVID-19

This week, Ankit scout rising iron ore prices globally and how it is helping company's getting better realisation in exports. Read full note here.

Page 34: Market Masala…

Go India AdvisorsWeekly Newsletter

34

Upcoming Results and Conference Calls

Results Calendar Upcoming Conference Calls

For Further Details, Visit GO INDIA STOCKS.

Page 35: Market Masala…

Go India AdvisorsWeekly Newsletter

08 June 2020

Germany – Industrial Production

Singapore – Foreign Reserves

France – 3m, 6m, 12m BTF Auction

USA – 3m, 6m, 3y Bill Auction

Japan – M2, M3 Money Supply

10 June 2020

France – Industrial Production

India – M3 Money Supply

Important Upcoming Events…

35

09 June 2020

South Korea – Unemployment Rate, M2 Money Supply

Eurozone – Employment Change, GDP

Japan - PPI

China – CPI, PPI

Switzerland, South Africa –Unemployment Rate

12 June 2020

UK – Industrial Production, GDP, Trade Balance

India – FX Reserves, CPI, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Output

USA – Export and Import Price Index

11 June 2020

Italy – 3y, 7y, 30y BTP Auction

USA – PPI, 4-week, 8-week Bill and 30y Bond Auction

Russia – Trade Balance

New Zealand - FPI

South Korea – Import and Export Price Index

Singapore – Unemployment Rate

Germany, France – Imports, Exports and Trade Balance

USA, Brazil - CPI

Japan, Eurozone – Industrial Production

France, Spain – CPI, HICP

Page 36: Market Masala…

Go India AdvisorsWeekly Newsletter

Thank You

• Any suggestions for what will be useful for you to get a bird's eye view of the market, do write to us at [email protected]

• To check out more about the market, visit www.goindiastocks.com

06-06-2020 36