Market Commentary 5Aug12

7/31/2019 Market Commentary 5Aug12

1/7

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Dollar Index Daily w/ Weekly Support

One of the things weve been consistent on in the last several weeks was the concept of buying/owning the

U.S. Dollar. This market continues to look like it wants to head higher. Im not sure where the upper end of

this move might lead to, therefore this is one of those trades where you stay long until your wrong. In other

words, keep raising the stops and keep holding the length. Theres a decent chance were still looking at an

expanding triangle from the lows; we could be just in the middle of an explosive -e- wave higher.

Bulls should consider using 82.21 and 81.19 as supports, or stop areas for long positions.

Any break of the blue uptrend line should certainly cause a full blow exit of any long trades.

-a-

-b-

-c-

-d-

(a)

(b)?

-e-

(c)?

REPRINTED from 7/22/2012


2/7


Dollar Index Daily w/ Weekly Support

The idea of an expanding triangle has been our model for several weeks now. We will

continue to maintain this count, though confidence is waning a bit. If we were in the midst of an

expanding triangle e-wave, the market should have been rocketing higher. Primary support lies

at 81.19 and/or the well-defined uptrend line (blue dashed). Bulls should be exiting the DXY on

violations of those levels. In the meantime hold em if you got em.

-a-

-b-

-c-

-d-

(a)

(b)

-e-

(c)?

[w]?

[x]?

[y]?


3/7


S&P 500 ~ 240 Min. with Weekly Support/Resistance

Our last message (7/1/2012) on the S&P500 suggested more choppy action higher and that it was a market that traders should just stay

away from for a few weeks. It appears that a corrective move higher has completed. It looks like a seven-legged diametric has

finished. If this is correct, then the S&P 500 should start collapsing. 1373 is the small 61.8% retrace of the most recent move down.

Traders should consider using that as first level stop loss on shorts. Second level resistance should lie at 1,389 (78.62%).

1345/1325 look like 1st and 2ndsupports for anyone who really wants to be long this market.trading below those

levels would represent a full breakdown in the market.

(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)

(e)

(f)

(g)

[c]

(y)

-a-

-b-?

[a]

[b]

[c]

(w)

(x)

[a]

[b]

1373



4/7


S&P 500 ~ 240 Min. with Weekly Support/Resistance

This has become a very confusing market pattern with all the whipsaw you would like. The shorter term posture must be on the

sidelines while waiting for greater clarity. The Fibbo technicians out there get another opportunity to sell the 61.8% retrace at 1362,

but it doesnt look like a good sell the second time around. This looks like a market that wants to probe higher levels. The good news for

the bears is that the move up from 1266 is definitely only corrective in nature. The bad news is the Friday move went out like a boss

and showed no signs of peaking. Bulls should consider 1330 as support, but again, this market is so choppy and

unpredictable right now, it makes little sense to even be involved.

[a]

[b]

(w)?[c]

(x)?

[a]

[b]

(y)?[c]



5/7


6/7

Note to Readers:

Due to my time being more constrained by my business and family, these reports/updates will become moresporadic in nature. My goal will be to put out updates whenever markets become more interesting.

Thanks for reading.

Best,

-AT


7/7

DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. This

report is technical commentary only. The author is NOT representing himselfas a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. This merely

reflects the authors interpretation of technical analysis. The author may or

may not trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positions

opposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information contained in

this commentary is taken from sources the author believes to be reliable, but

it is not guaranteed by the author as to the accuracy or completeness thereof

and is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves

risk and is not for everyone.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said

about futures trading: Trading commodity futures and options is not for

everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before

you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider

your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much

you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You

should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your

obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your

exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the riskdisclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Wave Symbology

"I" or "A" = Grand Supercycle

I or A = Supercycle

or = Cycle

-I- or -A- = Primary

(I) or (A) = Intermediate

"1 or "a" = Minor

1 or a = Minute

-1- or -a- = Minuette

(1) or (a) = Sub-minuette[1] or [a] = Micro

[.1] or [.a] = Sub-Micro

Documents

Market Commentary 5Aug12