Upload
others
View
3
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Greystone Wealth Management
Foundation House
Scott Drive
Altrincham
Cheshire WA15 8AB
Tel: +44 0161 927 7222
Fax: +44 0161 929 1940
www.greystonefs.co.uk
GREYSTONE Wealth Management
ASSESSMENT
INVESTMENT
SOLUTIONS
REVIEW
“A wealth of experience”
Quarterly Update
Fund & Market
Commentary Quarter 3 | 2012
2012 Investment
performance for high
growth portfolios
Greystone Wealth Management
Economic & Market Commentary
Economic confidence is a difficult beast to manage; if it exists then an
economy will power ahead. People will spend more of their hard earned
money, businesses will invest, entrepreneurs will be inspired and banks will
be keen to lend.
If confidence is not there everything seizes up; customers hoard cash to
keep it as safe as possible, companies fortunate enough to be profitable
save cash to invest when times are better and entrepreneurs will find banks
are unwilling to back them because of increased risks.
Confidence has a self reinforcing effect. If money is flowing, the ideas are
fizzing and investment is buoyant. People make a profit, expand their
businesses and the cycle renews itself. When confidence falters and the
cash dries up, people don't have the money to bring back the good times or if
they do, they save it to provide a shelter for the rainy days that seem set to
continue and the economy deteriorates even more.
Sadly that is precisely where we find ourselves at the moment. The problems
facing the world, of which there are many, are difficult although not
insurmountable but lack of confidence makes the problems seem worse.
Three major factors are affecting confidence at the moment.
Firstly the outlook for Europe remains uncertain and the crises could
escalate further before resolution. The situation is both a short and a long
term crisis. In the short term, it centres on the solvency of the banking
system, while in the long term structural reform and fiscal union are required.
A number of issues are as yet unresolved with politicians from different
countries unable to reach agreement. These issues will continue to create
uncertainty in the weeks ahead and European markets could face a bumpy
ride in the short term.
Despite this uncertainty however, the fact remains that there are a number of
world class companies based in Europe and these companies have robust
business models with exposure to long term global growth trends. We view
these companies positively and their strength is reflected by the recent
encouraging stock market performance not only in the UK but also in
Germany and France. A boost to confidence, at least in the short term, was
provided in September by the President of the European Central Bank, Mario
Draghi, when he announced plans to buy the debt of struggling European
countries. This bond buying plan was described as potentially unlimited in
size with Mr Draghi pledging to do whatever it takes to save the Euro.
Investors viewed this announcement as one of the strongest signs yet that
the European Central Bank is committed to saving the Euro and stock
markets rallied on the news.
The second major drag on confidence is centred on the USA where the
crucial issue is how Policymakers will deal with the ''fiscal cliff''. This would
potentially represent a €600 billion reverse stimulus because of planned
public sector spending cuts and tax increases. A fiscal contraction on this
scale would possibly plunge the US back into recession and unless
agreement can be reached to extend certain tax benefits and reverse or
delay spending cuts, economic growth will suffer with some commentators
predicting a fall in GDP of 4.0%. No concrete plans have been announced
and uncertainty will weigh on markets unless policymakers make their
intentions clear. Unfortunately, for now at least, attention is heavily focused
on the US Election and there are significant differences in how the two main
parties plan to achieve fiscal balance. However, despite the uncertainty, US
economic data has surprised on the upside; the USA housing market is
showing signs of recovery and the Dow Jones index is flirting with highs not
seen since the start of the credit crisis. Following the European Central Bank
lead, the Federal Reserve Bank announced it would launch a further round
of quantitative easing (QE) with the purchase of mortgage debt until such
time as the American economy improves and unemployment falls to an
acceptable level. The FED also pledged to keep interest rates at record lows
for an indefinite period but at least until 2015. Once again global equity
markets rose on the news with gains in the US, Asia and Europe.
The third area on uncertainty concerns China which is faced with the
enormous task of shifting to a consumption driven economy whilst
maintaining growth in a year that will end with a once in a decade leadership
change. The economy has slowed for 6 consecutive quarters and export
growth is stagnant due to faltering demand from Europe and the US. The
government is pursuing measures to boost the economy, including interest
rate cuts and infrastructure spending. Despite the challenging economic
environment, however, the Hang Seng index has gained over the year
indicating that the majority of investors anticipate a 'soft' landing for China.
Meanwhile in the UK, the Bank of England expects the economy to stagnate
this year with little or no growth. Despite this austere outlook the stock
market indices perform well and the latest 'Dividend Monitor' published by
Capita has revealed that dividends from UK companies grew by 18.4% to
£22.6 billion in the 2nd quarter of 2012. The biggest growth in dividends was
seen in companies within the Footsie 100 index where a 19% increase was
reported, with payouts totalling £19.9 billion.
Quarterly Update 2012 01
Paragraph
Limits
Text box must not go
below the grey box.
Paragraph separation
lines must be font size
4.
Text must be font size 9.
Greystone Wealth Management
Quarterly Update 2012 02
This indicates that cash flow and dividend cover remain strong for large, high
quality companies. We at Greystone continue to favour the equity income
sector and a number of funds which follow this theme feature in our in house
funds and investment portfolios.
Despite a number of confidence busters, stock markets suggest that there
are signs of light at the end of the long dark tunnel of uncertainty and appear
to indicate that there is hope for the future and economies will eventually
improve. Indeed, they always do.
However, the prevailing mood of uncertainty has pushed up the price of safe
haven assets particularly sovereign debt in the UK, US and Germany, to
unsustainable levels. Security is becoming increasingly difficult and
expensive to find but we at Greystone believe that it is better to balance the
trade off of risks --- liquidity, concentration, counter-party, wealth erosion due
to inflation, taxes and spending --- in this ultra low yield environment. We
believe multi asset balanced portfolios with high levels of diversification are
the best safe haven approach in a world with no safe havens. Our in house
funds and portfolios are constructed and blended with this in mind and
continue to perform well producing returns well in excess of cash deposits
albeit with some volatility. The GWM funds are actively managed by our in
house Investment Team allowing us to benefit fully from market trends.
Paragraph
Limits
Text box must not go
below the grey box.
Paragraph separation
lines must be font size
4.
Text must be font size 9.
Table EMC1
Fund performance over the period year-to-date
Fund Name Growth Year-to-date (%)
Conservative Fund +4.50
Cautious Managed Fund +9.70
Balanced Fund +11.10
Global Growth Fund +9.70
FTSE 100 Index +7.60
As always please refer to your usual Greystone Adviser for more information
about the Greystone Funds, Portfolios, investment process and our income
themes.
KWThompson
Chairman
All data provided as at 02.10.2012
Source: Thomson Reuters Lipper Hindsight
Chart F1b
Conservative Fund volatility versus IMA Money Market & FTSE All-Share
Source: Thomson Reuters Lipper Hindsight
IMA Money Market Conservative Fund FTSE All-Share Index
Volatility (%)
Greystone Wealth Management
Quarterly Update 2012 03
The Conservative Fund “Our initial stepping-stone towards investment
portfolios with low risk and solid defensive style
performance.”
Review
As of the 1st September 2012 the Margetts Greystone Sagacious Fund
became the Margetts Greystone Conservative Fund and took its place as our
lowest risk Fund within the suit of the Margetts Greystone Funds.
The objective of the Margetts Greystone Conservative Fund is to achieve
positive returns through the use of a diversified portfolio of investments.
The Fund’s price increased by +2.58% during the three month review period,
whilst the Investment Management Association (IMA) Absolute Return sector
average increased by +2.08%. The FTSE All-Share Total Return Index rose
in value by +4.70% over the same three month period, whereas the 3 month
LIBOR GBP returned +0.19%.
The Greystone Investment Committee (IC) formally made its first investment
for the Conservative Fund on 20th May 2010. Since assuming responsibility
for the Fund, the IC has successfully exited a number of legacy strategies
and only one negligible position remains. The end of quarter Fund price was
at 96.99p.
See below for the Conservative Fund timeline.
Paragraph
Limits
Text box must not go
below the grey box.
Paragraph separation
lines must be font size
4.
Text must be font size 9.
All data provided as at 28.09.2012
The Fund has increased in value by +4.99% during this transformation
period and +1.18% over the last six months.
This portfolio will benefit existing investors and those that have a constrained
ability and willingness to take risk, coupled with a limited ability for
investment loss.
Portfolio Activity
The IC met their target of fifty per cent exposure to Fixed Interest securities
during the first quarter of 2012. The Fund has now held a conservative style
asset allocation for over seven months and is tactically positioned to deliver
positive investment returns with low levels of volatility.
The Fund’s investment objective is to outperform money market Funds over
a rolling three year period and to achieve this with half the volatility of UK
Equities.
0
4
8
12
16
20
3 Months 6 Months 12 Months TransformationPeriod
We aim to realise this investment return through considered asset allocations
to the three core asset classes.
The IC has disciplined parameters for each of the three core asset classes;
Fixed Interest (money market, corporate & sovereign bonds), Equities (UK &
International) and Alternatives (absolute return & property).
All of our managers delivered positive returns over the quarter under review
across the three core asset classes.
May 2007 Sagacious
Fund launched
Greystone makes
first investment
20th May 2010
Greystone begin
de-risking Fund
November 2011
Sagacious becomes
Conservative
1st September 2012
2007 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 2012
Chart F1a
Conservative Fund time line from launch
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
Greystone Wealth Management
Quarterly Update 2012 04 All data provided as at 28.09.2012
The most recent addition to the portfolio was within the Fixed Interest
component and since being introduced has delivered strong profits via
exposures to US high yield bonds and a mixture of both US Dollar and local
currency emerging market debt.
Over the quarter, weakest returns came from one of our Fixed Interest
holdings, short term gilt exposure. This may be attributed to the relatively
weak performance of the gilt market versus Equities.
Chart F1c
Gilt versus Equity performance over last quarter
Source: Thomson Reuters Lipper Hindsight
-2
0
2
4
6
8
IMA UK Gilts FTSE All-Share Index
Performance (%)
Our Equity holdings within the Conservative Fund offered solid returns over
the quarter. Our European manager performed well versus many of his
peers, yet did appear to struggle relative to a number of geographies.
Our defensive UK Equity Income manager has consistently performed well
and has delivered strong, positive numbers benefiting from investments in
large blue-chip internationally diverse companies.
This UK Equity Income holding can be expected to experience a lag in
performance during periods of market strength due to its defensive nature,
yet has proven to protect returns during periods of market weakness.
Due to fifty per cent exposure to Fixed Interest, the Conservative Fund holds
a diverse spread of allocations within the Fixed Interest space. This diversity
allows the Fund to maintain its low risk characteristics, yet provide positive,
rewarding returns.
Paragraph
Limits
Text box must not go
below the grey box.
Paragraph separation
lines must be font size
4.
Text must be font size 9.
Being a portfolio suited for investors with a limited capacity for loss and a
constrained willing to incur risk, it offers an alternative to simply holding cash
deposits.
Long-term cash deposits have been significantly eroded by inflationary
impacts, diminishing the purchasing power of capital. Market exposure via
actively managed investment portfolios has helped combat these effects.
Chart F1d
Long-term inflationary impact on cash and Equities over the past 3 years
Source: Thomson Reuters Lipper Hindsight
Nominal return on cash Inflation-adjusted return on cash
Performance (%)
Cash
Fixed Interest
UK Equities
International Equities
Alternatives
Chart F1e
Current Conservative Fund asset allocation
Source: Greystone Wealth Management Investment Team
14%
28% 5%
45% 8%
The following page details the full asset allocation of the Conservative Fund
along with investment parameters.
Fixed Interest Exposures
Fund Name Exposure (%)
Cap Int. Global High Income Opportunities 10.00
Investec Emerging Markets Local Currency Debt 5.00
iShares FTSE UK Gilts 0-5 GBP 5.00
Jupiter Strategic Bond 10.00
M&G Optimal Income 10.00
M&G UK Inflation-Linked Corporate Bond 5.00
Greystone Wealth Management
Quarterly Update 2012 05 All data provided as at 28.09.2012
See below for the full breakdown of the Conservative Funds’ asset
allocation.
Table F1a
Full Conservative Fund asset allocation
UK Equity Exposures
Fund Name Exposure (%)
Trojan Income 10.00
Vanguard FTSE UK Equity Income Index 4.00
International Equity Exposures
Fund Name Exposure (%)
CF Ruffer European 8.00
Alternatives Exposures
Fund Name Exposure (%)
CF Ruffer Total Return 10.00
Majedie Asset Management Tortoise 10.00
Trojan 8.00
Portfolio investment restrictions
The following chart provides the investment bandwidths for the Conservative
Fund across asset classes.
Portfolio look through
Chart F1f
Conservative Fund investment bandwidths
Source: Greystone Wealth Management Investment Team
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1 2 3 4
Exposure (%)
Fixed Interest
UK Equities
International Equities
Alternatives
Performance outlook for Conservative
At Greystone we believe that multi-asset portfolios which are well diversified
across various geographies and asset classes will help in defending your
investments during periods of volatility and grow with rising asset prices.
The outlook for the Margetts Greystone Conservative Fund looks positive.
The IC believes that it has the potential to deliver attractive returns
throughout the economic cycle above the rates achieved on cash deposits
and money market Funds. The investment ideas generated by our in-house
research team allow the IC to rotate between asset classes, depending upon
the risk and return profile of each investment case.
Since the IC began the de-risking of the Conservative Fund we believe it
complements the Greystone suit of actively managed investment portfolios
and provides a real investment alternative to simply holding cash deposits
whilst taking limited levels of risk.
70% max
50% min
20% max
0% min
20% max
0% min
40% max
0% min
-2
0
2
4
6
8
IMA Money Market Cautious Managed Fund FTSE All-Share Index
The Cautious Managed Fund “Grow the real value of your portfolio with a yield
averaging 4.5% and a high level of growth.”
Greystone Wealth Management
Quarterly Update 2012 06
Review
During the third quarter of 2012 the Fund increased in value by +4.79%,
outperforming the Investment Management Association (IMA) Mixed
Investment 20-60% Shares sector average (previously the IMA Cautious
Managed sector) which saw +3.73% performance.
Since the Cautious Managed Fund changed its mandate on 24th July 2009, it
has delivered +22.83% growth. Over the last six month period the Fund has
grown by +2.75%, outperforming the IMA sector average which saw +1.95%.
The portfolio remains well diversified with exposures across each of the
three core asset classes; Fixed Interest, Equities and Alternatives.
The portfolio performed well over the quarter under review and defended
capital during a period of volatility in asset prices.
Paragraph
Limits
Text box must not go
below the grey box.
Paragraph separation
lines must be font size
4.
Text must be font size 9.
All data provided as at 28.09.2012
Portfolio Activity
The income generation of the portfolio remains a key theme for the
Investment Committee (IC) with the natural yield generated standing at just
over 4.15%.
The Investment Committee aims to maintain this natural income generation
from a combination of positions in both high yielding Equity Funds and Fixed
Interest investments. However, we do still remain very aware of our mandate
to defend capital and outperform cash over a rolling three year period.
Over the quarter there have been no changes to the asset allocations of the
Fund, although a number of changes have been made to the underlying
exposures with the addition of two new holdings.
Both additions took place during August 2012, the first being within the Fixed
Interest component adding to our Strategic Bond exposure. Our manager for
this holding has delivered strong, positive returns since being introduced to
the portfolio. He holds significant exposure towards Investment Grade Non-
Financials and High Yield which contributes well to the Cautious Managed
Fund’s overall dividend yield.
The second addition was a UK Equity Income product, which also delivered
strong, positive returns since being introduced to the portfolio. The manager
seeks to achieve income with the potential for some capital growth from a
relatively concentrated portfolio of stocks. His portfolio focuses on
undervalued investment opportunities offering sustainable yields and
potential for dividend growth. The core portfolio invests mainly in blue-chip
stocks which offer an increasing dividend, strong cash flow, strong balanced
sheets and a positive earnings outlook.
The IC maintains the view that Equity returns will come from cash-rich blue-
chip companies with strong balance sheets and sustainable dividend yields.
Attribution analysis has indicated that Fund selection in this area has been
valuable. Moreover, the IC continues to favour Equities over Bonds due to
the relative valuation differential.
Chart F2a
Cautious Managed Fund versus cash & Equity markets over last quarter
Source: Thomson Reuters Lipper Hindsight
Performance (%)
As an example of the oscillations experienced, the FTSE All-Share TR Index
fell from peak to trough during the quarter by -3.64%, but ended the third
quarter of 2012 up by +4.70%.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan-89 Jan-92 Jan-95 Jan-98 Jan-01 Jan-04 Jan-07 Jan-10
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
02-Jan-07 02-Jan-08 02-Jan-09 02-Jan-10 02-Jan-11 02-Jan-12
-5
-3
-1
1
3
Chart F2b
Yields achieved on cash, Gilts & Equities since 1989
Source: Schroders, FT, BoE
Cash Gilts UK Equities
Yield (%)
Cash
Fixed Interest
UK Equities
International Equities
Alternatives
28%
9% 4%
31% 28%
Greystone Wealth Management
Quarterly Update 2012 07 All data provided as at 28.09.2012
All of our managers for the Cautious Managed Fund delivered positive
returns over the quarter under review across the three core asset classes.
Over the quarter, all underlying holdings performed well, even the weakest
performer still posted a figure of +1.36% growth.
Our Fixed Interest Funds offered solid returns for the portfolio over the
quarter. Our Strategic Bond holdings delivered strong returns as credit
spreads tightened further and liquidity improved. Our Emerging Market Debt
manager lagged slightly, yet provided returns of +3.29% over the quarter
even with Emerging Market local currency weaknesses
Paragraph
Limits
Text box must not go
below the grey box.
Paragraph separation
lines must be font size
4.
Text must be font size 9.
The Equities component, both UK and International, also offered strong,
solid returns over the quarter. Our managers with more economically
sensitive portfolios performed better relative to those with more defensive
and less cyclical portfolios.
Our Absolute Return manager struggled somewhat during the quarter due to
their Japanese Equity exposure, however the manager maintains their
conviction that Japan’s Equity market remains excellent value and is due a
re-rating from historically low levels.
Chart F2d
UK Credit Spread – Credit quality
Source: Merrill Lynch
UK Credit UK AAA Credit UK AA Credit UK A Credit
UK BBB Credit
bps
Chart F2e
Current Cautious Managed Fund asset allocation
Source: Greystone Wealth Management Investment Team
The following page details the full asset allocation of the Cautious Managed
Fund along with investment parameters.
Chart F2c
Currencies relative to UK Pound Sterling over last quarter
Source: Thomson Reuters Lipper Hindsight
US Dollar Turkish Lira Brazilian Real
Performance (%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1 2 3 4
Fixed Interest Exposures
Fund Name Exposure (%)
Fidelity Strategic Bond 5.00
Investec Emerging Markets Local Currency Debt 5.00
Jupiter Strategic Bond 8.00
Legal & General Dynamic Bond Trust 5.00
M&G Optimal Income 8.00
Greystone Wealth Management
Quarterly Update 2012 08 All data provided as at 28.09.2012
See below for the full breakdown of the Cautious Managed Funds’ asset
allocation.
Table F1a
Full Cautious Managed Fund asset allocation
UK Equity Exposures
Fund Name Exposure (%)
Fidelity Enhanced Income 5.00
Schroder Income Maximiser 5.00
Trojan Income 8.00
Vanguard FTSE UK Equity Income Index 10.00
International Equity Exposures
Fund Name Exposure (%)
Newton Asian Income 8.00
Newton Global Higher Income 10.00
Sarasin International Equity Income 10.00
Alternatives Exposures
Fund Name Exposure (%)
CF Ruffer Total Return 9.00
Portfolio investment restrictions
The following chart provides the investment bandwidths for the Cautious
Managed Fund across asset classes.
Portfolio look through
Chart F1f
Cautious Managed Fund investment bandwidths
Source: Greystone Wealth Management Investment Team
Exposure (%)
Performance outlook for Cautious Managed
At Greystone we believe that multi-asset portfolios which are well diversified
across various geographies and asset classes will help in defending your
investments during periods of volatility and grow when asset prices rise in
value.
The outlook for the Margetts Greystone Cautious Managed Fund looks
positive. The IC believes that it has the potential to deliver attractive returns
throughout the economic cycle alongside a solid yield since the investment
ideas generated by our in-house research team allows the IC to rotate
between asset classes, depending upon the risk and return profile of each
investment case.
The investment mandate for the Margetts Greystone Cautious Managed
Fund is threefold; to outperform the IMA Money Market sector average, the
IMA Mixed Investment 20-60% Shares sector average and generate a solid
yield. The Fund has demonstrated an ability to meet the mandate as year-to-
date figures show the Fund with +9.70 growth, the IMA Money Market with
+0.44% and the IMA Mixed Investment 20-60% Shares with +6.28%. The
Fund is currently generating a look through yield of +4.15%.
The Fund has both an absolute return and a relative return benchmark.
Therefore, the IC remains cautious, but opportunistic in Fund selection and
asset allocation.
Fixed Interest
UK Equities
International Equities
Alternatives
60% max
30% min
40% max
20% min
30% max
0% min
20% max
0% min
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Greystone Wealth Management
Quarterly Update 2012 09
Review
During the third quarter of 2012 the Fund increased in value by +6.66%,
outperforming the Investment Management Association (IMA) Mixed
Investment 40-85% Shares sector average (previously the IMA Balanced
Managed sector) which saw +4.58% performance.
Over the last six months the Fund has grown by +1.97% and the IMA sector
average by +1.06%. Since the Balanced Fund changed its mandate on 30th
September 2010, it has delivered +10.29% growth.
The portfolio remains well diversified across Fixed Interest and Equities,
taking strategic positions across several geographies.
The Fund has held the ability to invest in Fixed Interest securities (sovereign
and corporate), Equities (both UK and International) and Alternatives
(Absolute Return and Property) since its mandate change. This flexibility to
rotate between asset classes continues to help smooth the volatility of the
portfolio over the course of the economic cycle.
Paragraph
Limits
Text box must not go
below the grey box.
Paragraph separation
lines must be font size
4.
Text must be font size 9.
All data provided as at 28.09.2012
Portfolio Activity
The portfolio performed well over the quarter under review with no changes
made to the asset allocation of the Fund, although a number of changes
have been made to the underlying exposures with the addition of two new
holdings.
Both additions took place during August 2012, the first being within the Fixed
Interest component adding to our Strategic Bond exposure. Our manager for
this holding has delivered strong, positive returns since being introduced to
the portfolio. He holds significant exposure towards Investment Grade Non-
Financials and High Yield.
The second addition was a UK Mid-Cap Equity product, which has, over the
last quarter, delivered exceptional growth at +10.19%. Its objective being to
achieve capital growth from medium sized UK companies.
All of our managers for the Balanced Fund delivered positive returns over the
quarter under review across all asset classes and geographies.
Over the quarter, all underlying holdings performed well, the weakest
performer being our US Equity Index Tracker Fund, which still posted returns
of +3.03% over the period.
The Balanced Fund “Take a balanced approach to investing and enhance
the potential of long-term income and growth.”
Chart F3a
Balanced Fund performance versus FTSE All-Share
Source: Thomson Reuters Lipper Hindsight
Balanced Fund FTSE All-Share Index
Performance (%)
Chart F3b
Balanced Fund volatility versus FTSE All-Share
Source: Thomson Reuters Lipper Hindsight
Volatility (%)
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
3 Months 6 Months 12 Months Mandate Change
Balanced Fund FTSE All-Share Index
Portfolio Activity
Cash
Fixed Interest
UK Equities
Europe
North America
Asia Pacific ex Japan
Emerging Markets
36%
10%
9% 9% 4%
17%
15%
Our Fixed Interest Funds offered a solid base for the portfolio over the
quarter. Our Strategic Bond Funds delivered solid returns as credit spreads
continued to narrow and liquidity improved.
Our UK Equity Funds offered a mixture of positive returns. Our defensive,
less cyclical style manager appeared to lag slightly as our managers with
more economically sensitive portfolios performed relatively better.
Our European managers saw positive return contributions over the quarter.
Our themes surrounding Europe during the second quarter 2012 were of
European stocks standing at historically low levels and could potentially offer
strong investment returns over future quarters. These themes appear to
have come to fruition.
Asia continues to be one of our favoured geographical regions due to the
growing levels of domestic consumption, positive demographics along with
strong economic and earnings growth. The IC believes that developed World
Equity markets also offer significant value, particularly on an Equity yield
basis relative to sovereign debt yields. Our Asian Equity holding produced
strong return contributions over the quarter.
North America and our US Equity Index Tracker holding performed relatively
well during the review period, although the US Dollar did weaken against the
Pound by -2.87%.
Greystone Wealth Management
Quarterly Update 2012 10 All data provided as at 28.09.2012
Paragraph
Limits
Text box must not go
below the grey box.
Paragraph separation
lines must be font size
4.
Text must be font size 9.
The IC maintains the view that investment returns shall come from
companies that have strong cash flows and secure yields, as investors
reward companies that are not highly leveraged and are able to invest in
their own business.
Price to Earnings (P/E) ratios show that Equities look relatively cheap and
may indicate future sustained growth. A forward P/E ratio uses a company’s
projected future earnings instead of its most recent earnings. The shaded
area shows one standard deviation away from the mean P/E ratio.
Chart F3e
Current Balanced Fund asset allocation
Source: Greystone Wealth Management Investment Team
The following page details the full asset allocation of the Balanced Fund
along with investment parameters.
Chart F3c
Sector performance over past quarter
Source: Thomson Reuters Lipper Hindsight
FTSE All-Share Index IMA Europe IMA North America
IMA Asia Pacific IMA Japan IMA Global Emerging Markets
US Dollar
Performance (%)
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
Chart F3d
FTSE 100 Index Price to Earnings Ratios
Source: FACTSET (Artemis), Thomson Reuters Lipper Hindsight
Next 12 months µ-ơ (LHS) Next 12 months average (LHS)
Next 12 months P/E (LHS) FTSE 100 CR Index (RHS)
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
6 x
7 x
8 x
9 x
10 x
11 x
12 x
13 x
14 x
15 x
16 x
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
FTSE 100 P/E Ratios FTSE 100 CR Level
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1 2 3 4
Fixed Interest Exposures
Fund Name Exposure (%)
Fidelity Strategic Bond 5.00
Legal & General Dynamic Bond Trust 5.00
M&G Optimal Income 7.00
Greystone Wealth Management
Quarterly Update 2012 11 All data provided as at 28.09.2012
See below for the full breakdown of the Balanced Funds’ asset allocation.
Table F1a
Full Balanced Fund asset allocation
UK Equity Exposures
Fund Name Exposure (%)
Artemis Income 7.00
Trojan Income 7.00
Franklin UK Mid-Cap 5.00
M&G Recovery 5.00
Majedie Asset UK Equity 9.00
Old Mutual UK Select Mid-Cap 3.00
International Equity Exposures
Fund Name Exposure (%)
Jupiter European 7.00
Liontrust European Growth 8.00
Vanguard US Equity Index 10.00
Newton Asian Income 9.00
Aberdeen Emerging Markets 9.00
Portfolio investment restrictions
The following chart provides the investment bandwidths for the Balanced
Fund across asset classes.
Portfolio look through
Chart F1f
Balanced Fund investment bandwidths
Source: Greystone Wealth Management Investment Team
Exposure (%)
Performance outlook for Balanced
At Greystone we believe that multi-asset portfolios which are well diversified
across various geographies and asset classes will help in defending your
investments during periods of volatility and grow when asset prices rise in
value. It is probable that the Equities component of the portfolio will generate
the majority of returns (and risks) over the medium-term within the Balanced
Fund, although it is important to note that exposure to Fixed Interest
securities will help diversify the portfolio, dampen risks and smooth the
returns of the Fund going forward.
The Margetts Greystone Balanced Fund does not currently hold exposure to
the Alternatives asset class, although the IC continues to review suitable
Absolute Return Funds for the portfolio.
The portfolio remains well diversified across asset classes and geographies.
The IC remain acutely aware of current and future Equity market volatility.
The exposures held towards International companies and the increasing
concentration towards large-cap blue-chip stocks will help the Fund defend
capital during periods of increased volatility.
Fixed Interest
UK Equities
International Equities
Alternatives
45% max
5% min
50% max
20% min
50% max
10% min
20% max
0% min
Greystone Wealth Management
Quarterly Update 2012 12
Review
During the third quarter of 2012 the Fund increased in value by +5.58%
outperforming the Investment Management Association (IMA) Global sector
average which saw +4.77% and the comparable FTSE World excluding UK
GBP Total Return Index which saw +3.92%.
Over the last twelve months the Fund has grown by +14.87% and the IMA
sector average by +12.97%. Since the Global Growth Fund launched on 5th
December 2005, it has delivered growth of +54.27%, outperforming both the
IMA sector average with +25.51% growth and the FTSE World excluding UK
GBP Index with +39.82%.
The IC maintained the Fund’s strategic geographical allocations throughout
the third quarter of 2012. The Fund has faired better than many International
Equity markets.
Paragraph
Limits
Text box must not go
below the grey box.
Paragraph separation
lines must be font size
4.
Text must be font size 9.
All data provided as at 28.09.2012
Portfolio Activity
The Global Growth Fund “Achieve global market exposure from a sector
leading portfolio with best competitive
performance over 6 years.”
Chart F4a
Global Growth Fund performance versus International Equity sectors
Source: Thomson Reuters Lipper Hindsight
Global Growth Fund IMA Global IMA Asia Pacific
IMA North America IMA Japan IMA Global Emerging Markets
Performance (%)
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
The portfolio performed well over the quarter under review with no changes
made to the asset allocation of the Fund.
Nearly all of our managers for the Global Growth Fund delivered positive
returns with the exception of our Japanese Equity manager. Our Japanese
manager aims to achieve capital growth through investments in companies
operating in Japan.
Our UK and European Equity Funds offered positive returns over the quarter.
Our UK manager outperformed his respective IMA sector average. Both our
European managers struggled versus the IMA Europe excluding UK sector
average amid signs of stress remaining across Europe with Spanish yields at
10.8% and Greek yields at 22.9%. The more cyclically focused businesses
struggled relative to defensive stocks as investor risk appetite declined.
Our Asian managers offered strong returns outperforming the IMA Asia
Pacific excluding Japan sector average over the quarter. Those managers
being growth orientated performed better than those focused on large-cap
cash generative and high yielding companies.
Our US managers offered positive, yet mixed performance over the quarter
under review. Those of a multi-cap and highly diversified orientation offered
some of the strongest US performance.
Cash
UK Equities
North America
Europe
Japan
Asia Pacific ex Japan
Emerging Markets
36%
12%
26%
10% 2% 9%
5%
Chart F4b
Current Global Growth Fund asset allocation
Source: Greystone Wealth Management Investment Team
The following page details the full asset allocation of the Global Growth Fund
along with investment parameters.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1 2 3 4
Greystone Wealth Management
Quarterly Update 2012 13 All data provided as at 28.09.2012
See below for the full breakdown of the Global Growth Funds’ asset
allocation.
Table F4a
Full Global Growth Fund asset allocation
UK Equity Exposures
Fund Name Exposure (%)
Schroder UK Alpha Plus 9.00
International Equity Exposures
Fund Name Exposure (%)
North America
Baillie Gifford American 9.00
GLG American Growth 8.00
Schroder US Smaller Companies 9.00
Vanguard US Equity Index 10.00
Europe
Jupiter European 7.00
Liontrust European Growth 5.00
Japan
GLG Japan CoreAlpha 5.00
Asia Pacific
Fidelity Inst South East Asia 8.00
First State Asia Pacific Leaders 9.00
Newton Asian Income 9.00
Emerging Markets
Aberdeen Emerging Markets 10.00
Portfolio investment restrictions
The following chart provides the investment bandwidths for the Global
Growth Fund across asset classes.
Portfolio look through
Chart F4c
Global Growth Fund investment bandwidths
Source: Greystone Wealth Management Investment Team
Exposure (%)
Performance outlook for Global Growth
The Margetts Greystone Global Growth Fund now has a near seven year
history and since its launch in December 2005 it has outperformed its IMA
Global sector average and the comparable FTSE World excluding UK GBP
Index. At Greystone we believe that the Global Growth Fund is well
positioned given the current economic climate and the outlook over the
longer-term to continue to provide strong positive returns going forward.
Valuation metrics such as; price to earnings ratios, relative yields and
earnings levels, suggest that many Equity markets appear to be relatively
inexpensive and are offering good value. Nevertheless, asset price volatility
seems to be a theme that will be with us for the near-term. Policy-makers in
the developed world have difficult decisions ahead of them; needing to
reduce debt and try to boost economic growth.
We maintain a diverse portfolio of investments with allocations across the
market capitalisation spectrum and geographies with the Fund invested in
over 30 countries worldwide. Global economic growth is expected to be
positive over the remainder of 2012 and into 2013. We believe that this will
help in delivering solid Equity market returns.
Our overweight positions in faster growing emerging economies, balanced
with significant weightings to companies with strong cash flows in the
developed world, offers a robust risk versus return investment profile.
Fixed Interest
UK Equities
International Equities
Alternatives
10% max
0% min
20% max
0% min
100% max
60% min
10% max
0% min
Notes
Greystone Wealth Management
Quarterly Update 2012 14
Greystone Wealth Management
Foundation House, Scott Drive, Altrincham
Cheshire, WA15 8AB
A trading name of R W Harris Ltd which are authorised and regulated by the
Financial Services Authority.
GREYSTONE
This quarterly document does not constitute a form of financial advice and
should not be relied upon. This is provided for information only.
At Greystone we seek to guide you with your investment strategies by
assessing and continually checking the levels of investment risk you are
willing and able to take, thus ensuring suitable investments are made on
your behalf.
The qualities offered include:
✓ Track Record of building lasting relationships across parties.
✓ Active Management for strategic and tactical allocations.
✓ Desired Access to the whole investment universe.
✓ Research Strength via a robust and repeatable process.
✓ Adviser Commitment with transparent and regular reporting.
✓ Tailored Approach in-line with requirements and objectives.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
Past, simulated past or future projected performance is not a reliable
indicator of future performance and may not be repeated. Investment
markets and conditions can change rapidly and as such any views
expressed herein should not be relied upon when making investment
decisions. Neither the payment of dividends or return of capital is implied or
guaranteed. There is a risk of loss of capital. Rates of exchange may cause
the value of investments to go up or down. The information and any opinions
expressed herein may change at any time and therefore this document does
not constitute investment, tax, legal or other advice or recommendation or an
offer to sell or an invitation to apply for any product or service. Investors
should consider carefully whether an investment in this fund or portfolio is
suitable in light of circumstances and resources.