Market Commentary 1JUL12

7/31/2019 Market Commentary 1JUL12

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Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

9/1/2000

< III >

- A -

S&P 500 ~ Monthly Log Scale

- B -

( A )

( B )z

( E )

- C -

This longer term count remains favored. Nothing in the market has altered this view. Thehigher this (B) wave travels, though, it becomes more likely the (C) Wave will not be thatpowerful of a move. The (B) wave is telling a tale of underlying strength. So, the nextcorrective move lower should cause the S&P 500 to break below 1,000 but its unlikely we

will see action below 900. This next (C) will be at least a TWO YEAR grind lower.

( C )

( D )

w

x

y

x

REPRINTED from 4/22/2012 in order tore-emphasize the bigger picture count.


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S&P 500 ~ Weekly

( A )

( B )

z?

This model continues to be my best accounting of the price action from the lows. The highs from early April (1419)will be need to hold in order to maintain this count. Any action above there would suggest a different type ofcorrection from the Mar 09 lows. It would be most likely a seven legged diametric, an idea that weve discussed

before.

w

e

x

y

a

b

c

d

a

b

c

d

e

x

a?

b?


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S&P 500 ~ Weekly: A Diametric?

( A )

A diametric would suggest a new high for the (B) Wave but only marginally so due to the constraints of a

this particular pattern. When the c wave is shorter than the a wave, the g wave MUST be shorter

than the e wave. This particular outcome would be an extremely difficult market to trade for the next

several months and would certainly wear down most bears/shorts.

a

e

b

c

a

b

c

d

a

b

c

d

e

d

eg

f

( B )


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S&P 500 ~ 240 Min. with Weekly Support/Resistance

Because of the potential five wave down setup highlighted on the previous page, we still want to take a stab atshorting the 61.8% retracement. We will target the 1357-1366 area as a sell zone at least on the first go.

Bulls/longs should consider 1327 as a stop on any length. That would be a strong enough move below theneckline to suggest a failure of the head and shoulder bottom. In fact, a move back below 1327 would cause us

to initiate shorts again on the S&P 500.

Neckline

REPRINTED from 6/17/2012


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S&P 500 ~ 240 Min. with Weekly Support/Resistance

This has become a very confusing market pattern with all the whipsaw you would like. The shorter term posture must be on thesidelines while waiting for greater clarity. The Fibbo technicians out there get another opportunity to sell the 61.8% retrace at 1362,but it doesnt look like a good sell the second time around. This looks like a market that wants to probe higher levels. The good news forthe bears is that the move up from 1266 is definitely only corrective in nature. The bad news is the Friday move went out like a boss

and showed no signs of peaking. Bulls should consider 1330 as support, but again, this market is so choppy andunpredictable right now, it makes little sense to even be involved.

[a]

[b]

(w)?[c]

(x)?

[a]

[b]

(y)?[c]


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Dollar Index Daily w/ Weekly Support

Even though the idea of a large scale Head and Shoulder bottom is being threatened withthe move back towards 81.65, risk/reward still favors buying this market in this zone. A breakbelow the 61.8% retrace (80.49) or a break below the uptrend line should force an exit of anytrading length.

-a-

-b-

-c-

-d-

-e-

REPRINTED from 6/17/2012


7/8Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Dollar Index Daily w/ Weekly Support

The Dollar Index was destroyed on Friday on European headlines, though he DXY still looks bullish on basic chartingtechniques: higher highs and higher lows. While the move on Friday was nauseating for longs, risk/reward still favors

buying dips. Bulls should use 81.19 and 80.18 as support/pivot points in the week ahead.

-a-

-b-

-c-

-d-

-e-?

(a)

(b)


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DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. Thisreport is technical commentary only. The author is NOT representing himselfas a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. This merelyreflects the authors interpretation of technical analysis. The author may or

may not trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positionsopposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information contained inthis commentary is taken from sources the author believes to be reliable, but

it is not guaranteed by the author as to the accuracy or completeness thereofand is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading involvesrisk and is not for everyone.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has saidabout futures trading: Trading commodity futures and options is not foreveryone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Beforeyou invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consideryour financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how muchyou can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. Youshould understand commodity futures and options contracts and yourobligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand yourexposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the riskdisclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Wave Symbology

"I" or "A" = Grand SupercycleI or A = Supercycleor = Cycle-I- or -A- = Primary(I) or (A) = Intermediate"1 or "a" = Minor1 or a = Minute-1- or -a- = Minuette

(1) or (a) = Sub-minuette[1] or [a] = Micro[.1] or [.a] = Sub-Micro

PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE IS ADDITIONAL INTRA-WEEK AND INTRA-

DAY DISCUSSION ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND TRADING AT

TRADERS-ANONYMOUS.BLOGSPOT.COM

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Market Commentary 1JUL12