Market Commentary 19DEC11

8/3/2019 Market Commentary 19DEC11

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Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Weekly Big Picture

c( A )

w

x

y

This is has been our longer term wave count for quite some time. So far there has been nothing in the recent price action to alter this view.Bigger picture, 1345 still looks like a significant market top, though the (B) wave is probably not complete. Wave z should last until theend of year. Presidential election years are typically good years for the market. This wave count suggests otherwise....

( B )

x

a

b

z

- B -

( C )

Important Top at 1345

REPRINTED from 10/23/2011


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S&P 500 ~ Weekly Big Picture

c( A )

w

x

y

The z-wave does not yet look complete. We knew that this wave would last until at least the end of the yearand it has not disappointed. We had been suggesting for several weeks that it would take the shape ofclassic contracting triangle. Thats still a good probability but the action in the last two weeks has put some

doubt to that idea. The exact form of this z wave cannot yet be determined. Using the bigger pictureformation, though, we do know that it should only last a few weeks longer and that it has likely alreadyachieved its highest price.

( B )

x

a

b

z

- B -

( C )

Important Top at 1345

a

b?

c?


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S&P 500 ~ Daily

My temptation is to label the price action as a contracting triangle from the x wave low because thats what I want to

see. And, its possible that this is the correct shorter term count. The one problem is that duration of the c-wave seems alittle too short lived. If it is a triangle formation, then a more rigid accounting would look like the next slide.

( B )

x

ze?

( C )

a-y-

-c-b?

c?

-w-

-x-

-a-

-b-

d?


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S&P 500 ~ Daily

The outline presented below is probably a better accounting of the price action. If theres a way for a wave to last longer,then its best to just assume it will. The chart pattern below also implies that this is NOT going to be a great market to beinvolved with as there will be tremendous opportunity to get chopped up up within this triangle.

( B )

x

ze?

( C )

a-y-

-c-b?

c?-c-

-w-

-x-

-a-

-b-

d?

-a-

-b-


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S&P 500 ~ Daily

If a triangle does not develop for the z wave, then it will be a diametric pattern that would look something like this, a notheroutcome and reason for short term traders NOT to be heavily involved.

x

( C )

a-y-

-c-b?

c?

-w-

-x-

-a-

-b-

d?

e?

f?

g?

( B )z


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S&P 500 ~ 120 min. Weekly Support and Resistance

For those traders who really cant stay away from the action, the following levels represent first and second points of suppo rt andresistance. If one were to point a gun to my head and say Make a trade right now that will make money in the next few daysI would probably buy this market in front of 1196 and run a stop below that level. Fortunately, there is no gun to anyones head.A break below 1196 should cause the market to coast to 1158.


7/9Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Copper - Daily (Non-Log)

The other possibility is that the (C) wave concluded at $4.54 and we could be at the tail end of a bona fide impulse lower. This is thewave count that could cause A LOT of problems for bulls and bears alike because it will create a bear trap on the new low. Theensuing corrective rally will give Copper bulls plenty offalse hope that will end in despair.Im rooting for this outcome as itsbeen a long time since weve witnesseda large scale impulsion and it wouldset up easier trading opportunities.

2

3

4

( C )5

1

2

3

4

51 or a

The Bottom Line is that the Copper picture is nottelling a good tale. Theres room for Copper to grind a little higher,but this market is a sale into the $3.75-4.00 zone and shouldnot be even considered a buy until it sets a new low sub-$2.99.

REPRINTED from 12/11/2011


8/9Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Copper - Daily (Non-Log)My last report on Copper was bearish. If there are any traders who areholding short positions in copper, some resistance points have beenhighlighted below. A move back above $3.47 should cause bears to stop outof shorter term (new) trades. A break above $3.62 should cause all shorts toexit the market for further evaluation. If a triangle did finish near $3.62 andthis market is now thrusting to the downside, it should not be able to sustainany kind of meaningful bounce higher. The 3.4760 level is the 61.8% retrace

of the last move lower.2

4

51 or a

1

3


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DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. Thisreport is technical commentary only. The author is NOT representing himselfas a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. This merelyreflects the authors interpretation of technical analysis. The author may or

may not trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positionsopposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information contained inthis commentary is taken from sources the author believes to be reliable, but

it is not guaranteed by the author as to the accuracy or completeness thereofand is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading involvesrisk and is not for everyone.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has saidabout futures trading: Trading commodity futures and options is not foreveryone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Beforeyou invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consideryour financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how muchyou can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. Youshould understand commodity futures and options contracts and yourobligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand yourexposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the riskdisclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Wave Symbology

"I" or "A" = Grand SupercycleI or A = Supercycleor = Cycle-I- or -A- = Primary(I) or (A) = Intermediate"1 or "a" = Minor1 or a = Minute-1- or -a- = Minuette

(1) or (a) = Sub-minuette[1] or [a] = Micro[.1] or [.a] = Sub-Micro

PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE IS ADDITIONAL INTRA-WEEK AND INTRA-DAY DISCUSSION ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND TRADING ATTRADERS-ANONYMOUS.BLOGSPOT.COM

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Market Commentary 19DEC11