Market Commentary 18Mar12

8/2/2019 Market Commentary 18Mar12

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Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Daily with Weekly Support

The break of the clear trendline did generate strong selling last week,but the market FAILED to get below the second level of support at1337, the 23.6% retracement. Not only that, but the strong bounceback to close the week makes the latest move look like the beginningof a triangle pattern at the top--not really a bearish development.Basis this triangle concept, 1337 and 1378 should serve as the bandof support/resistance in the week ahead. Breaks of those levels,particularly the 1337, should lead to increased volatility in thedirection of the break.

a

bCOPIED from 3/11/12


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S&P 500 ~ Daily with Weekly Support

Since the rally began at 1202, the market has only witnessed oneminor 23.6% retracement which then led the way to last weekshuge snap back rally. The persistent and powerful nature of thisadvance reinforces the idea that this is a thrust out of a trianglethat concluded at 1202. Weve been employing the concept ofraising stops every week to either stay with length and/or avoidshorting until a confirmed breakdown. Obviously, weve seen nota whiff a breakdown yet.

Consider using 1378 as a first level support. The market clearlybroke out above that previous resistance point, so it should nowserve as support. The 1440 resistance point comes from the 85%retrace of the entire decline (2008-2009) and also aligns withlonger term class chart resistance. 1440 stands out enough thatit should elicit at some selling from the technical trading crowd.

1202

a

b

c

g

e

d

f

The wave labeling here is a guess. Its still

too difficult to decipher with much confidence


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S&P 500 ~ Daily Longer Term Count

( A )

w

e

x

y

The thrust out of a triangle is typically limited to 75-125% of the widest leg, which in this case wouldbe an extremely wide range of outcomes between 1375 and 1525 depending on where exactly the e-wave (within x) concluded. I think this wave, though, will end up limited by its relationship to the y

wave. It should be, 62-78% of y, which would suggest a move to 1400-1450.

( B )z

a

b

c

d

a

b

c

d

e

xe?

COPIED from 3/11/12


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Dollar Index (DXY) ~ Daily Continuation

The DXY looks like it has further to move before the -b- wave finishes. This move maybe what helps the S&P500 correct lower to start the week. Ultimately though, it doeslook like the dollar has one more decent little wave down (the -c- of d-wave), so maybethat will be the gyration which causes the S&P500 to breakout higher one more time.

I really like 80.53 as being good resistance that should cap the DXY in the near term.


a

b

c81.78

- a -

- b -

(c)

-c-d

(a)

78.10

(b)

COPIED from 3/11/12


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Dollar Index (DXY) ~ Daily Continuation

The DXY closed right at our key resistance last week and then failed. It lookslike the -c- of d-wave has commenced. The trend should be lower/sidewaysprice action for the next few weeks. The -a- = -c- target aligns with the 61.8%retrace at 77.42. That looks like a viable target for this move if the count is

correct. DXY shorts/bears should consider 80.42 and 80.74 as first and secondresistance for stop loss strategies.


a

b

c81.78

- a -

- b -(c)

-c-d

(a)

78.10

(b)


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Gold ~ Daily Continuation

The tighter stop at $1,761 served the longs well in terms of loss avoidance. That level now becomes primary resistance asgold dropped like a stone last week. It did manage to hold the 38.2% of the entire advance but it seems like the yellow metalis just in the beginning stage of a multi-week correction that should take it down to $1,626 or lower.


a

b

c

d

e

1,761 = resistance

COPIED from 3/4/12


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Gold ~ Daily Continuation

A few weeks ago it was suggested that gold was just beginning a multi-week decline that should take it to$1,626. So far, so good on that call. It feels like the meat of the decline is over with the 61.8% retracelooming as decent support to the bulls. Bears/shorts should consider trimming bearish positions in frontof that support, or at least be using $1,685 for a stop loss point. 1685 is the 61.8% retrace of the movedown from $1,717.40


1,761 = resistance


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DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. Thisreport is technical commentary only. The author is NOT representing himselfas a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. This merelyreflects the authors interpretation of technical analysis. The author may ormay not trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positionsopposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information contained inthis commentary is taken from sources the author believes to be reliable, but

it is not guaranteed by the author as to the accuracy or completeness thereofand is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading involvesrisk and is not for everyone.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has saidabout futures trading: Trading commodity futures and options is not foreveryone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Beforeyou invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consideryour financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how muchyou can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. Youshould understand commodity futures and options contracts and yourobligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand yourexposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the riskdisclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Wave Symbology

"I" or "A" = Grand SupercycleI or A = Supercycleor = Cycle-I- or -A- = Primary(I) or (A) = Intermediate"1 or "a" = Minor1 or a = Minute-1- or -a- = Minuette

(1) or (a) = Sub-minuette[1] or [a] = Micro[.1] or [.a] = Sub-Micro

PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE IS ADDITIONAL INTRA-WEEK AND INTRA-

DAY DISCUSSION ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND TRADING AT

TRADERS-ANONYMOUS.BLOGSPOT.COM

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Market Commentary 18Mar12