Market Commentary 13May12

7/31/2019 Market Commentary 13May12

1/6

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 Weekly ~ Bull Trap?

One of the basic elements of a bull market is that it continues to set new highs whilethe lows become higher. Another aspect of a real bullish sequences is that when aprevious high gets taken out, the market should decisively take it out and not lookback for awhile. So, in that regard, this latest development on the S&P 500 shouldbe very disappointing for bulls. As of this moment, the S&P500 looks like a marketthat set a marginally higher high and then quickly reversedback below that level--its beginning to look like a bull trap.

Previous resistance zone shouldve been support


2/6


S&P 500 ~ Daily with Primary Support

Shocker! The S&P 500 double bottomed comfortably above key support and putin a nice rally last week.

The longer term wave counts and structure continue to suggest were at or veryclose to the end of this large (B) wave. But, it makes much more sense to enter the short side of this market only after getting a confirmation of a break down.From just the rally off the 1202 low, the market has failed to break even a previouslow. Why bother shorting it until it does? That said the 1440 level, as highlightedon previous reports, looks like strong resistance. So, I would be initiating shorts infront of that level (1425-1440) or I would short on a break down below 1338.Everything in between looks like a no mans land.

1202

a

b

c

g?

e

d

f

i?

h?

( B )z

REPRINTED from 4/29/2012


3/6


S&P 500 ~ 60 Min. Chart

Im not sure what the proper degree labeling should be here and the count from the 1357 low can go either way. This is just astab at what the very short term structure might be. On thing is for sure, the move down from 1422 was NOT a classicimpulse, to the chagrin of classic Ellioticians. Theres no sign of peaking action to this market, so a full probing of theshort term resistance area 1408-1414 seems in the offing to begin the week.

[a]

[b]

[c]

[d]

[e]

[f]

[g]

[e]

[b]

[a]

[d]

[c]

If this is an expanding triangle, the e-wave must exceed the top of the a-c trendline.

Daredevile longs/bulls should probably run astop loss at 1392 for any short term long

positions.

REPRINTED from 4/29/2012


4/6


S&P 500 ~ 240 Min. with Support/Resistance

In the last update we suggested that the S&P500 would probe the 1408-1414 areabefore any kind of decline. Indeed, the market hit 1415 and then ran into somedifficulty. The wave count up from 1202 is, admittedly, difficult to decipher. Whats notdifficult to decipher is the fact that the tenor of the market has changed in the lastseveral weeks.

Its difficult to know whether or not the (B) concluded at the 1422 or 1415 high, but ineither case, this market should not be able to retrace a 61.8% if it has truly peaked.

This looks like a sell rally market. 1388 should be used as a stop loss level for anynear or long term short sells. We last cited 1392 has a good stop loss for anydaredevil longs-- that was a good level to have left this market . If youre still long andholding on, then use any break of 1338 to get out.

1202

( B )z?1422

( B )z?

a

b

c

d

e


5/6


S&P 500 ~ Double Head and Shoulders Top?

At the risk of jinxing things for the Shorts out there, I must highlight thedeveloping complex Head and Shoulder Top**. It would have a double-headed look about it and it would also amplify the importance of the 1338levela level that weve been talking about for several weeks now.

Left Shoulder

Left Head Right

Head

Right Shoulder?

** Please note that weve seen plenty of failed head and shoulders tops on the way to 1422. So, dont put toomuch faith in this pattern, especially if the blabbering bobbleheads of CNBC starting mentioning it.


6/6

DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. Thisreport is technical commentary only. The author is NOT representing himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. This merelyreflects the authors interpretation of technical analysis. The author may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positionsopposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information contained inthis commentary is taken from sources the author believes to be reliable, but itis not guaranteed by the author as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading involvesrisk and is not for everyone.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has saidabout futures trading: Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before youinvest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much youcan afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. Youshould understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the riskdisclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Wave Symbology

"I" or "A" = Grand SupercycleI or A = Supercycle

or = Cycle-I- or -A- = Primary(I) or (A) = Intermediate"1 or "a" = Minor 1 or a = Minute

-1- or -a- = Minuette

(1) or (a) = Sub-minuette[1] or [a] = Micro[.1] or [.a] = Sub-Micro

PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE IS ADDITIONAL INTRA-WEEK AND INTRA-

DAY DISCUSSION ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND TRADING AT

TRADERS-ANONYMOUS.BLOGSPOT.COM

Documents

Market Commentary 13May12