Market Commentary 11Mar12

8/2/2019 Market Commentary 11Mar12

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Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

S&P 500 ~ Weekly Longer Term Count Updated

( A )

w

e

x

y

Confidence in the previous longer term counting of the y and x waves has wavered due to the price behavior of the market. I am nowforced to make a slight adjustment to the previous longstanding count. Its becoming obvious that the last x wave did not conclude at the1075 low--it had to have concluded later if thats even the correct count. The idea of contracting triangle x wave fits with the thrusting

nature of this market since the year began. Confidence in this wave count is tepid.

( B )z

( C )

a

b

c

d

a

b

c

d

e

x

e?

COPIED from 2/20/12


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S&P 500 ~ Daily Longer Term Count

( A )

w

e

x

y

The thrust out of a triangle is typically limited to 75-125% of the widest leg, which in this case wouldbe an extremely wide range of outcomes between 1375 and 1525 depending on where exactly the e-wave (within x) concluded. I think this wave, though, will end up limited by its relationship to the y

wave. It should be, 62-78% of y, which would suggest a move to 1400-1450.

( B )z

a

b

c

d

a

b

c

d

e

xe?


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S&P 500 ~ Current Rally with Weekly Support

As the Talking Heads sang Same as it ever was... The market continued its grind higher. One

interesting thing to observe is that the S&P 500 is struggling a bit to get back to the upper endof the trend channel--this is usually a signal of a market thats losing its energy. Bulls/Longsshould raise stops yet again because when this channel breaks, it should be fairly violent,a la the Gold market this week.

Consider using 1352 and 1337 for first and secondlevels of support. 1337 would be a 23.6% retrace ofthe entire last move--a level that also aligns with priorshort term support.

This would be support area on a breakdown.

COPIED from 3/04/12


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S&P 500 ~ Daily with Weekly Support

The break of the clear trendline did generate strong selling last week,but the market FAILED to get below the second level of support at1337, the 23.6% retracement. Not only that, but the strong bounceback to close the week makes the latest move look like the beginningof a triangle pattern at the top--not really a bearish development.Basis this triangle concept, 1337 and 1378 should serve as the bandof support/resistance in the week ahead. Breaks of those levels,particularly the 1337, should lead to increased volatility in thedirection of the break.

a

b


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Dollar Index (DXY) ~ Daily Continuation

It still looks like the wave down from 81.78 has further to develop -- it does notlook like a completed wave form at the 78.10 low. So, were likely seeing an

expanded flat -b- wave. It would not be a surprise to see the market rally to themid 80s before taking a larger leg down. 80.53 would be the 61.8% retrace of the

proposed -a- wave and 138.2% of (a) = (c), a nice target for an expanded flatcorrection.


a

b

c81.78

- a -

- b -(c)

d

(a)

78.10

(b)

COPIED from 3/04/12


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Dollar Index (DXY) ~ Daily Continuation

The DXY looks like it has further to move before the -b- wave finishes. This move maybe what helps the S&P500 correct lower to start the week. Ultimately though, it doeslook like the dollar has one more decent little wave down (the -c- of d-wave), so maybethat will be the gyration which causes the S&P500 to breakout higher one more time.

I really like 80.53 as being good resistance that should cap the DXY in the near term.


a

b

c81.78

- a -

- b -

(c)

-c-d

(a)

78.10

(b)


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DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. Thisreport is technical commentary only. The author is NOT representing himselfas a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. This merelyreflects the authors interpretation of technical analysis. The author may or

may not trade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positionsopposite of what may by inferred by this report. The information contained inthis commentary is taken from sources the author believes to be reliable, but

it is not guaranteed by the author as to the accuracy or completeness thereofand is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading involvesrisk and is not for everyone.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has saidabout futures trading: Trading commodity futures and options is not foreveryone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Beforeyou invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consideryour financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how muchyou can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. Youshould understand commodity futures and options contracts and yourobligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand yourexposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the riskdisclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Wave Symbology

"I" or "A" = Grand SupercycleI or A = Supercycleor = Cycle-I- or -A- = Primary(I) or (A) = Intermediate"1 or "a" = Minor1 or a = Minute-1- or -a- = Minuette

(1) or (a) = Sub-minuette[1] or [a] = Micro[.1] or [.a] = Sub-Micro

PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE IS ADDITIONAL INTRA-WEEK AND INTRA-DAY DISCUSSION ON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND TRADING ATTRADERS-ANONYMOUS.BLOGSPOT.COM

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Market Commentary 11Mar12