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Nobody is unpredictable
Maritime Provinces Higher Education Commission
Mobility in the Maritimes: How Students Progress Through Their First
University Degree
PCCAT, Charlottetown, PEIJune 20th, 2018
www.cespm.cawww.mphec.ca
About the MPHEC
Our Board
• 20 members, representing our stakeholders across NB, NS and PEI:
• Universities• Government &
non-government leaders
• Students• Public-at-large
Accountability
• Maritime Ministers responsible for postsecondary education in the Maritimes through CAMET
Core Functions
• Quality Assurance
• Data and information
• Cooperative Action
• Administration of interprovincial agreements
• Services to provinces by request
www.cespm.cawww.mphec.ca
About the MPHEC
Mandate:“In carrying out its duties, the Commission must give first consideration to improving and maintaining the best possible service to students as lifelong learners”
www.cespm.cawww.mphec.ca
Student Progress and Outcomes
How many students persist in university? At their university of first entry or anywhere in the
MaritimesHow many students graduate within 4 years, 6 years?How long does it take to complete a first degree?What is the impact of switching institution or
program/discipline on time to degree?What are the impacts of taking longer to complete a first
degree?
www.cespm.cawww.mphec.ca
15 Maritime universities
New Brunswick4 Nova Scotia
10
Prince Edward Island1
70,000 students• 60,000 undergraduate• 10,000 graduate
4 Colleges
1 College
2 Colleges
+ 7 Maritime colleges
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Origin of Students in Maritime Universities
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Data Source: MPHEC PSIS Database 1999-2000 to 2016-2017
• Institution description• Program information• Course information
Institutional Level Data
• Demographic• Program information• Course information• Transfer credits
Student Level Data
• Program funding weight• MPHEC program approval code• MPHEC Field of Study • Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP) codes• K-12/P-12 Provincial Student Identifier• Student Transfer File (17 elements; previously part of StatCan’s PSIS)
MPHEC-Specific PSIS Elements
www.cespm.cawww.mphec.ca
Probabilistic approach: Estimates the likelihood of matching
• Involves 13 data elements
Institution IdStudent IdSurnameFirst NameMiddle NamePrevious surnameGender
BirthdateSocial Insurance NumberPermanent Postal CodePermanent AddressPermanent PhoneCurrent Phone
MPHEC PSIS Record Linkage
• Can tolerate common data problems - typographic errors, missing data, inconsistent spelling / nicknames, changing addresses, etc.
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000
Link
age
scor
e
Link ID
Good match
No
Grayzone
• Automatically detects 95-98% of potential matches• Uncertain matches – need to be reviewed• Note: siblings receive high linkage scores
MPHEC PSIS Record Linkage
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MPHEC PSIS Record Linkage
Individual PSE history is available for every university student in the Maritimes since 1999: • Maritime universities attended• Programs taken• Courses taken• Credentials granted
The MPHEC longitudinal PSIS database currently covers: • 17 years of longitudinal data • 1.5 million student records • 500 000 individuals
www.cespm.cawww.mphec.ca
Cohort – First time full time students
Cohort size9,799
10,00911,2799,8609,6599,2969,3189,6649,5189,5739,8079,5009,5509,262
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Student progression at the system-level
2006 cohort ( n = 9,296)First time, full-time bachelor studentsAll Maritime universities combinedAll programs combined
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Persistence rates at the institution of first entry and system-level
Cohort: First time, full-time bachelor students; All Maritime universities combined
Persistence rate: The percent of the cohort that re-enrols at any Maritime university, in the fall term in subsequent years, regardless of registration status or field of study.
www.cespm.cawww.mphec.ca
Graduation Rate at the institution of first entry and system level
First time, full-time bachelorstudents; All Maritime universitiescombined
Graduation rate: The percent of the cohort that completes any degree at any Maritime university within x years. The measure is cumulative.
www.cespm.cawww.mphec.ca
Definition:
• Time measured in years from the year of first entry to the graduation year.• Measured as elapsed time and not time enrolled.
Cohort:
• First-time, full-time students enrolled in a bachelor’s program in the fall term of the cohort year.
• Graduating from an undergraduate degree at any Maritime university within 8 years.
Characterizing Educational Pathways in Maritime Universities
Measure : Time-to-Degree
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The 2007 cohort after 8 years
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Number of years to complete a first university degree (system-level)
First time, full-time students who graduatedfrom any degree and from any Maritime
university within 8 years
Average TTD
4.59 years
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Students who do not switch program or do not transfer to anotheruniversity are more likely to complete a degree within 4 years
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23% of graduates switched university and/or field of study
Switching University orFOS
adds 0.6 to 0.7 years Switching Universityand FOS
adds 1.2 year
First time, full-time students who graduated from any degree and from any Maritime university within 8 years
www.cespm.cawww.mphec.ca
91% of Maritime graduates complete their degree at their university of first entry; 9% complete at another Maritime university
New Brunswick4
Nova Scotia10
Prince Edward Island
1
6% of graduatescompleted a degreeat a differentuniversity in the same province
3% of graduatescompleted theirdegree in a differentprovince
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19% of graduates switched field of study (FOS)
39% of students enrolling in Sciences and Mathematics graduate in a different FOS
FOS at graduation
FOS based on CIP primary groupings
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Half of male graduates take more than four years to complete first degree
First time, full-time students who graduatedfrom any degree and from any Maritime
university within 8 years
Cumulative degree completion rate by gender, 2007 cohortn = 6,351 graduates
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Average TTD by Field of Study and Gender
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Student studying closer to home take longer to complete their first degree
First time, full-time students who graduatedfrom any degree and from any Maritime
university within 8 years
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Why measure time-to-degree?
Optimize program design/requirements:Taking longer to complete an equivalent degree at
different universities because of extra credit requirements.
Inform policy decisions: Tuition policy Facilitating the transfer of credits between institutionsTimely completion benefit
Cost to taking longer: Higher debt load
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Student Background, Time-to-degree, and graduate outcomes
www.cespm.cawww.mphec.ca
Student Background, Time-to-degree, and graduate outcomes
www.cespm.cawww.mphec.ca
How full-time are “full-time” students?
Full-time = 60% of a normal course loadIncludes:HASS in NS, PE and NB.Business in NS and PESciences in NS and PEn = 6,728
96%: Technically “full-time” for the year for enrolment, tuition, funding, student loans
64.3%: students with a full course load. Enrolled with enough credits to graduateon time.
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Filling the gaps : integrating college data
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Time-to-degree
GenderStudent origin
Parent Educational Attainment
Switching programSwitchingInstitution
InstitutionProgram
Field of study
Co-opYear Abroad
Living in residenceLiving at home
Working while studying
Part-time studiesStop-out
Course load
Failing coursesEnrolling in
summer term
Many factors affect time-to-degreeLo
ngitu
dina
l Lin
ked
PSIS
GO
* Sur
vey
*MPHEC Graduate Outcome Survey
www.cespm.cawww.mphec.ca
www.mphec.ca
www.cespm.ca