Mario López PérezEngineering and Binational Water Issues Manager

March 4 and 5, 2014Ankara, Turkey

Mexican National Drought Programme (Pronacose)

1

México in figures

• 1964 thousand km2

• 112.3 million people

• Density 58 inhab/km2

• 77% population is in locations over 2,500 people

• 188,595 locations under 2,500 people

• 4,312 m3/people/year was the average natural availability in 2013

Aquifer Average recharge

70 km3/year

Groundwater extraction

30.1 km3/year

Precipitation760 mm -1 489 km3/year

Average natural runoff

329 km3/year

Surface water extraction

50.5 km3/year

Agricultural Use61.8 km3/year

Urban use11.4 km3/year

Industrial use7.4 km3/year

Average evapotrans-

piration1 089

km3/yearImportation from other countries

50 km3/year

Exportation to other countries0.43 km3/year

Yearly averages

Mexico´s vulnerability due to geographic location

Hurricanes historical tracks

HURrRICANES ATLANTIC SINCE 1851PACIFIC SINCE 1949

4

Seasonal Rainfall Distribution67% from June to September

Problems (shift and amount) related with temporal water availability are exacerbated by climate change.

Spatial rainfall distributionAnnual average precipitation 776 mm

Highly variable

Tabasco > 2000 mmBaja California <200 mm

MEXICAN WATER MANAGEMENT SYSTEM

GOVERMENT ORGANIZED SOCIETY

PRESIDENT

SEMARNATOTHER FEDERAL AGENCIES

TECHNICAL COUNCIL

PROFEPAIMTA

CONAGUAWATER ADVISORY

COUNCIL (CCA)

FEDERAL OFFICES

STATE AND MUNICIPAL GOVERMENTS

BASIN ORGANIZATIONS

BASIN COUNCILS

BASIN COMMISSIONS

BASIN COMMITTEES

USERS ASSEMBLY

USERS COMMITTEE

COTASUNIVERSITIES AND RESEARCH

CENTERS

GOVERMENT ORGANIZED SOCIETY

NATIONAL LEVEL

HYDROLOGICAL REGION AND STATE LEVEL STATE WATER

ADVISORY COUNCIL

6

ADVISORY COUNCIL

LOCAL AGENCIES

January 10,2013 is announced by President Peña Nieto in Zacatecas

“… the main component will be, early warning,… and second, early action to anticipate, prevent and act appropriately in time against eventual climatologic contingencies that may affect the population and the agricultural productivity”.

PRONACOSE POLITICAL SUPPORT

PRONACOSE VISION

Guarantee the permanence of the planning and implementation process for the drought management, through social participation, developing and implementing the measures to reduce vulnerability as the backbone of the mexican strategy to adapt to climate change according to the Climate Change Law and the National Water Law.

Tightly linked to the Civil Protection System (against natural disasters).

Reactive Drought Attention : SNPC, PDN-III, FONDEN y

CADENA.

PRONACOSE

New water policyDrought attention plan

Drought Monitoring (Early Warning)

Programmes(to prevent and mitigate)

• Basins

• Users

General Agreements at the beggining and at the end of the drought(Law enforcement to guarantee human water consumption)

(1

(2

(3

Today Tomorrow

Where we are

Where we want to be

1) Drought Monitoring (early warning)

http://www.dof.gob.mx/nota_detalle.php?codigo=5278695&fecha=22/11/2012

Conagua defines beginning-end and drought duration and location with the category of severe intensity, each month for every Hidrological Region, Basin Council, State or Municipality.

• SPI (precipitation in basins)

• SDI (dams and rivers)

• Other methods with international recognition (Mexican Drought Monitor– North America Drought Monitor)

Indexes used

Drought Classification : Hydrologic Drought Meteorological Drought

Drought Monitoring at CONAGUA web site

http://www.conagua.gob.mx/

Drought Evolution 2003-2014

549 581

1900

22822208

2099

1776

1299

776 772

1213 1174

1048

638603 601 573

412455

324 293 318

444518 557

806

653

959

1066

752 782 749

275221

89 78178

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Enero

Febre

ro

Marzo Ab

ril

Mayo

Junio Julio

Agos

to

Septi

embre

Octub

re

Novie

mbre

Dicie

mbre

Enero

Febre

ro

Marzo Ab

ril

Mayo

Junio Julio

Agos

to

Septi

embre

Octub

re

Novie

mbre

Dicie

mbre

Enero

Febre

ro

Marzo Ab

ril

Mayo

Junio Julio

Agos

to

Septi

embre

Octub

re

Novie

mbre

Dicie

mbre

Enero

Núm

ero

de

Mun

icip

ios

Mes

Monitor de Sequías de Enero de 2011 a Enero de 2014

Anormalmente Seco (D0) Sequía Moderada (D1) Sequía Severa (D2) Sequía Extrema (D3) Sequía Excepcional (D4) Gran Total

2011 20

12

2013

2014

Designed and

implemented by

authorities and water

users. Based on local

characteristics of every

region.

3) Preventive and Mitigation Measures Programmes (PMPMS) for each of the 26 Basin Councils

IMTA, Engineering and Geography Institutes -UNAM, Juárez University, State of Durango, Chihuahua, Baja California, Veracruz, Sonora, Chiapas, Zacatecas and Yucatán Universities

26 Basin Counciles

12 Universities

CONAGUA (Headquarters and regional Offices, and Basin

Councils

Institutional Coordination

14

1.- INTERSECRETARIAL COMMISSION TO ATTEND FLOODS AND DROUGHTS

SEGOB ∙ SEDENA ∙ SEMAR ∙ SHCP ∙ SEDESOL ∙ SEMARNAT SENER ∙ SE ∙ SAGARPA ∙ SCT ∙ SALUD ∙ SEDATU ∙ CFE.

DOF APRIL 5, 2013

Article One. A permanent Intersecretarial Comission is created to attend floods and droughts, responsible to coordinate the actions between Federal Agencies and Federal entities.

First session: April 24, 2013Second session: July 3, 2013Third and Forth session: December 10, 2013Fifth session: February 17, 2014

Pronacose action lines and components

PMPMS formulation Law enforcement to guarantee human water consumption

Coordinated attention to mitigate the drought impacts

Formulation, implementation and evaluation

Warning and Monitoring Drought

Strenghtening of the institutional framework to attend the drought

Research

Capacity building, communication and divulgation

Legal protocol establishment

Publication and implementation of law enforcement agreements to guarantee human water consumption during the severe phase of drought.

Coordination to apply the Natural Disaster Fund (FONDEN)

Permanent updating of the federal programmes and its operation rules to assure an efficent aplication to mitigate the drought effects.

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Monitoring and Early Warning:

• Monitoring and monthly warnings published by Conagua at basin, state and municipality level according to the intensity category determined by the North America Drought Monitor

• Weekly determination and publication of SPI and SDI for the main dams and gauge stations.

Preventive and Mitigation Measures Programmes for Drought (PMPMS):

• 26 PMPMS, one for each Basin Council. First Version. • Base lines research defined• Workshops with 4 international experts

Intersecretarial Commission to attend Drought :

• Integrated and instalated with 13 offices. 4 sessions.• Instalation of the Experts Committee. 1 session.• Instalation of the Work Group to revise the federal programmes. 2 sessiones

Progress to December 2013

PRONACOSE

17

Follow up, evaluation and improvement programme: 2013 2018

PRONACOSE IMPLEMENTATION 2014

Component

Action Lines

Preventive and Mitigation Drought Programmes implementation and

evaluation(PMPMS)

Monitoring and warning

Strenghtening of the institutional

framework to attend the drought

ResearchCapacity building,

communication and divulgation

Formulation and implementation of the preventive and mitigation programs (including monitoring and warning).

1. Development of the follow up and evaluation PMPMS system.

2. PMPMS Implementation

3. PMPMS complement. Characterization, vunerability and index

4. Implementation of identified actions from PMPMS (guarantee the Conagua funds aplication.)

1. Monthly publication of the Mexican Drought Monitor.

2. Weekly publication of SPI and SDI dam and hydrometrical index.

3. Study the behavior of SPI and SDI vs Drought Monitor.

4. Formulate the strategy to publish the Drought Monitor in a period of 15 days.

5. Formulate the strategy to refine the Drought Monitor.

1. 4 sessions for the Intersecretarial Commission.

2. 2 sessions for the work groups. and de Drought Experts Committee.

1. Agreements with institutions to develop research lines identified in 2013 (TdRs).

2. Application of the National Research Fund in drought research lines (Conagua Conacyt)

1. Vulnerability workshops.

2. Workshops to develop the follow up and evaluation PMPMS system.

3. Formulate and initate a comunication campaign.

4. Spread the Pronacose advances in workshops, seminaries, conferences and meetings .(national and internatonal)

Components Action Lines

Stablishment of the legal administrative protocol

Publication and implementation of the Law enforcement agreements to guarantee the water for human

consumption during the phase of severe or higher

Law enforcement agreements to guarrantee water for human consumption

1. Agree legal instrument

2. Agree with other federal institutions the process and responsibilities

3. Agree the process inside Conagua

1. Agreement publication

2. Agreement follow up and implementation

Components Action Lines

Coordinate the funds application from FONDEN, CADENA and other federal

programmes

Permanent program revision and operation rules in order to guarantee an efficent aplication and mitigation to the

drought effects

Coordinated action to mitigate

1. Agree with Fonden the drought index update to apply the funds.

2. Agree with CADENA the update of the drought measure index to apply the funds.

3. Agree with SEDESOL the link with the Program Sin Hambre.

4. Agree with other goverment agencies, the emergency protocol to attend a drought emergency situation and aplicateion of the funds.

5. Formalize those agreements at the Intersecretarial Commission.

1. Identification of federal programs and development of operation rules.

2. Establishment of a follow up and evaluation protocol for the implemented actions at the Intersecretarial Commission

STEPS TO DEVELOP A PMPMS

Interested actors, objectives and principles development

Historical drought and impact analysis

Vulnerability evaluation Mitigation and response strategies

Drought phases, triggers and response goals

Response drought programme

Implementation and monitoring

Programme evaluation and updating

Implementation

PRONACOSE WORKSHOP Intention Letter First aproach to

Team LeadersWorking group establishment Work Plan

Flow ChartHistorical drought data and impact

analysis

Basin Characterization

Basin vulnerability evaluation information

Mitigation strategy and expected responses to

drought

Phases and index

characterization

Detailed Program by

phase

PMPMS (first versión)

Agreements taken at the first users meeting

Agreements taken at the

second users meeting

Agreements taken at the third users

meeting

“PMPMS FINAL VERSION”

Elaboración de PMPMS

PROCESS TO GENERATE A PMPMS

Intersecretarial CommissionExecutes and informs the actions advances to prevent and mitigate drought Experts CommitteeIssues coments and recomendations Coordinator TeamAnalyze and integrate the PMPMS

SummaryPresentationBasin Characterization

PhisiographyNatural resources

1 Conformation and structure of the Technical Directive Groupa. Actorsb. PMPMS objectives

2 Historical drought and impact evaluationa. Drought historical evaluation, Water supply and demand analysis ; water stressb. Historical drought impacts and evaluation of the response measures taken

3 Vulnerability drought evaluationa. Water supply sources security and y planeación para la gestión de la sequíab. Economic, social and environmental evaluation of the drought impacts

4 Drought Mitigation and response strategiesa. Mitigation measures b. Supply strategies and actionsc. Demand strategies and actions

5 Drought phases, triggers and response objectivesa. Drought phases, triggers and reactive response measuresb. Drought emergency declaration and feasible scenarios

PMPMS CONTENT

6 Response programme to drought phasesa. Early warning in previous phaseab. Warning and measures in initial phasec. Measures in critcal phased. Measures in severe phasee. Public awareness informaion on droughtf. Educational and water culture campaign g. Scientific research and technological development needs

7 Implemmentation and monitoringa. Mitigation action planb. Indicators and monitoringc. State of emergency declaration on droughtd. Programme implementation by drought phasee. Response programme enhancementf. Economic issues, financing and budgetg. Follow up and evaluation

8 Revision and update plana. Public participation process for revision and updatingb. Agreements and other legal instrumentsc. Plan approval mechanism

Conclusions

PMPMS CONTENT

AnnexMapsHhidrometeorological and supply statisticsAgricultural and cattle water use statisticsDomestic water supply use statisticsIndustrial water use statisticsEnvironmental water requirement and use statisticsStructure and operation of the Technical Directive GroupNames, positions and reference data for the professionals of the Technical Directive Group

PMPMS CONTENT

Work sheet A – Historic drought impact, futures and mitigation. Work sheet B – Mitigation and response strategies from offert.Work sheet C – Mitigation and response strategies from demand. Work sheet D – Public information drought campaignWork sheet E – Drought phases, triggers and responses. Work sheet F – response drought program by phasesWork sheet G – Drought mitigation and response program to drought by phases Work sheet H – Mitigation and drought response by phases resume. Work sheet I - Mitigation action plan. Work sheet J – Demand projection and priority asiggnation. Work sheet K – Drought Monitoring

WORK SHEETS

The work sheets are used to support the development of the drought management programmes. They are tools to help organize the ideas, information and data to be included in the program.

UNIVERSITIES, RESEARCH INSTITUTIONS AND INVITED EXPERTS

A PMPMS example

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

-4-3-2-10123 Mexicali 2033

SP

I

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

-3-2-10123 Presa Rodríguez 2038

SP

I

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

-4-3-2-101234 Rancho Alegre 2040

SP

I

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

-3-2-10123 Emilio López Zamora 2072

SPI

Range SPI Category 2.0+ Extremely

moistured1.5 a 1.99 Very moistured1.0 a 1.49 Moderately

moistured-0.99 a 0.99 Approached to

normal-1.0 a -1.49 Moderately dry-1.5 a -1.99 Severly dry-2 y menor Extremely dry

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)

North American Drought Monitor. April, 2013

2033 Mexicali2069 Valle de Las Palmas2072 Ensenada

Exposition index (IE)

Based on :

- Drought frequency – Historic SPI (FS)-Precipitation frequency (FP)-Storage soil capacity (CAS)-Water Quality (salinization) (SA)

IE = FS + (1-FP) + CAS + SA

Sensibility Index (IS)Based on:

-Number of concessions (NC)-Volume by uses (VU):

- Weight 1: public-urban, domestic

- Weight 2: industrial, livestock- Weight 3: agricultural

-Population Density (DP)-Regulation level (GR)

IS = NC + VU + DP + (1-GR)

Adaptation Capacity Index

Based on:

- Recharge balance (BR)- Storage change (CA)

ICA = BR + CA

Aquifer Vulnerability IndexBased on:

-Exposition Index (IE)-Sensitivity Index (IS)-Adaptation capacity index d(ICA)

IV= IE + IS + (1-ICA)

TRIGGERS

Ensenada Mexicali Tijuana Rosarito Tecate San Luis Río Colorado

SPI-12 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓Recharge Deficit ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓Piezometry ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓Dams levels ✓ x ✓ ✓ x xAquifer Vulnerability ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓Minute 319 x ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓Impacts ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

Municipality application of the drought phases

Triggers

TRIGGERS DEFINITION VALUES PERIODICITY SOURCE

SPI-12 SPI for the previous 2 years.

1 a 3 meses sequía: 0.254 a 6 meses con sequía: 0.506 a 12 meses sequía: 0.75Más de 12meses sequía: 1

Monthly CONAGUA reference stations

Storage levels Meters above sea level80% del nivel medio: 0.2565% del nivel medio: 0.5040% del nivel medio: 0.7525% del nivel medio: 1

Monthly CONAGUA

Aquifer vulnerability

Level of the pumping at reference aquifers

Valor de vulnerabilidad de 0 a 1

Every six monthts UABC

Minute 319 Lake Mead level Nivel menor a 1075p: 0.5Nivel menor a 1050p: 0.75Nivel menor a 1025p: 1

January 1 USBR published data

Impacts Registered number of impacts

De 3 a 10 impactos: 0.2De 11 a 18 impactos: 0.4De 19 a 26 impactos: 0.6De 29 a 34 impactos: 0.8De 35 a 41 impactos: 1

Monthly Press releases

TriggersTRIGGERS DEFINITIONS VALUES PERIODICITY DATA

SOURCE

Recharge deficit Aquifer recharge resting the total volume consessioned

Definición de niveles para cada acuífero en función del volumen total del mismo

Before and after the cycle

CONAGUA

Piezometry and storage

Profundidad del nivel estático en pozos de referencia

Establecimiento de 4 niveles críticos en cada pozo de referencia a partir del histórico

Monthly Well observations CONAGUA and water utilities

Coastal aquifers conductivity

PROY-NOM-SSA1-250-2007NOM-CCA/032-ECOL/1993

Determinación de pozos de referencia.1200-2000mmhos/cm: 0.5Más de 2000mmhos/cm: 1

Monthly CONAGUA

THANK YOU FOR THE ATTENTION

mario.lopezperez@conagua.gob.mxwww.pronacose.gob.mx

Mario López PérezEngineering and Binational Water Issues Manager

March 4 and 5, 2014Ankara, Turkey