Mariken Homleid and Frank Thomas Tveter · AROME physics AROME (Applications of Research to Operations at MEsoscale) is targeted for horizontal resolution 2.5 km or ﬁner. It uses

METinfoNo. 16/2016

ISSN 1894-759X

Meteorology

Verification of Operational

Weather Prediction Models

September to November 2015

Mariken Homleid and Frank Thomas Tveter

Contents

Introduction

Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Post processed forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

The HARMONIE system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Verification measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Observations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Variables at pressure levels figures

Statistics of geopotential height at pressure levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Statistics of wind speed at pressure levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Statistics of relative humidity at pressure levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Statistics of specific humidity at pressure levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Mean Sea Level Pressure figures

Statistics by lead time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Monthly summary statistics the last three years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Temperature 2m figures


Monthly mean error the last three years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Monthly standard deviation of error the last three years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Monthly mean absolute error the last three years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Maps for each region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

Time series for selected stations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

Post processed temperature 2m figures


Wind speed 10m figures


Statistics for categorised events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39






Post processed maximum mean wind speed 10m figures



2

Wind gust figures



12 hour precipitation figures



Daily precipitation figures






More information...

Verification results are also available on internal web pages

• http://metcoop-int.smhi.se/ - AROME-MetCoOp verification - 7 and 30 last days

• http://verif/vmap/ - timeseries and windroses - on Google map

3

Models

The following models are verified in this report.

ECMWF Global model (IFS) at the European Centre for Medium-Range

Weather Forecasts. From 26 January 2010 resolution TL1279L91

or approximately 16×16 km2 horizontally.

Hirlam12 Version 7.1, horizontal resolution defined by a 12×12 km2 grid.

Operational status since 13 February 2008.

Hirlam8 Version 7.1, horizontal resolution defined by a 8× 8 km2 grid.

Operational status since 13 February 2008.

Harmonie2.5 HARMONIE cycle 36h1.3 with AROME physics and non-

hydrostatic dynamics, horizontal resolution defined by a 2.5×2.5 km2 grid. Run at MET from 4 May 2011 to 26 February

2013.

AROME-Norway HARMONIE cycle 37h1.1 with AROME physics and non-

hydrostatic dynamics, horizontal resolution defined by a 2.5×2.5 km2 grid. Experimental since 25 October 2012, replacing

Harmonie2.5 from 26 February 2013, on Yr from 1 October 2013.

AROME-MetCoOp (AM25) HARMONIE with AROME physics, horizontal resolution de-

fined by a 2.5× 2.5 km2 grid on same domain as AROME-

Norway. Run in cooperation with Swedish Meteorological and

Hydrological Institute (SMHI). Experimental with cycle 38h1.1

since 9 December 2013, operational since 12 March 2014, cycle

38h1.2 since 8 December 2014.

Analysis and lead times of forecasts are denoted by e.g. 00+30 UTC which indicates forecast generated

at 00 UTC and valid 30 hours later.

Post processed forecasts

Most of the raw model data are post processed before being published on Yr.

For 2m temperature, the raw data is first adjusted to a fine scale (500 m) topography applying a verti-

cal temperature gradient of -1.6 degrees pr. 100 m. The “height corrected” 2m temperature forecasts

(AMHC) are in a next step adapted to observations by a Kalman filter at all observing stations. The

Kalman filter corrections are interpolated horizontally to the 500 m grid by kriging, using weights which

decrease with increasing distance from the observing stations, both horizontally and vertically. The in-

terpolated Kalman filter corrections are finally added to the heigth corrected field, giving AMKF.

10 m wind speed is statistically post processed to represent maximum wind speed 10m last hour, and

called AMPP.

The precipitation forecasts are post processed by a neighbourhood method giving a median field, AM-

median. This field is used to determine the precipitation symbol on Yr.

4

The HARMONIE system

HARMONIE is the acronym for HIRLAM’s meso-scale forecast system (Hirlam Aladin Regional/Meso-

scale Operational NWP In Europe). The HARMONIE system includes several configuration options.

This section presents some of the main components and setups that are used at MET.More documentation

is available on http://www.cnrm.meteo.fr/gmapdoc/ and http://hirlam.org/. A change log for AROME-

MetCoOp is found on https://wiki.met.no/nwp/metcoop/changelog/start.

ALARO-0 physics

ALARO-0 has physical parameterizations targeted for grey scale resolutions ( 4-10 km). It is a spin-off of

the Meteo-France physical parameterizations used in the globale ARPEGE, but with a separate radiation

scheme, 3MTmicro-physical frame work, and the Toucans turbulence scheme. Much of the development

has been done by the RC LACE (Regional Cooperation for Limited Area modeling in Central Europe)

community.

AROME physics

AROME (Applications of Research to Operations at MEsoscale) is targeted for horizontal resolution 2.5

km or finer. It uses physical parameterizations based on the French academia model Meso-NH and the

external surface model SURFEX. AROME has been operational at Meteo-France since 18 December

2008, with a horizontal resolution of 2.5 km.

SURFEX as surface model

SURFEX (Surface externalisee) is developed at Meteo-France and academia for offline experiments

and introduced in NWP models to ensure consistent treatment of processes related to surface. Meteo-

France is already using SURFEX for some of their configurations and is planning to use it for all their

configurations. Surface modelling and assimilation will benefit from the possibility of running offline

experiments. SURFEX is also used for offline applications in e.g. hydrology, vegetation monitoring and

snow avalanche forecasts.

SURFEX includes routines to simulate the exchange of energy and water between the atmosphere and

4 surface types (tiles); land, sea (ocean), lake (inland water) and town. The land or nature tile can be

divided further into 12 vegetation types (patches). ISBA (Interaction between Soil Biosphere and At-

mosphere) is used for modelling the land surface processes. There are 3 ISBA options; 2- and 3-layer

force restore and a diffusive approach, where the first one is used in HIRLAM. Towns may be treated

by a separate TEB (Town Energy Balance) module. Seas and lakes are also treated separately. The lake

model, FLAKE (Freshwater LAKE), has recently been introduced in SURFEX. A global ECOCLIMAP

database which combines land cover maps and satellite information gives information about surface

properties. The orography is taken from gtopo30.

“SURFEX Scientific Documentation” and “User’s Guide” are available on http://www.cnrm.meteo.fr/surfex/

5

Data assimilation

NWP models are updated regularly using observations received in real-time from the global observing

system. AROME-MetCoOp is updated each third hour; at 00, 03, 06, 09, 12, 15, 18 and 21 UTC.

Surface analysis

Surface analysis is performed by CANARI (Code d’Analyse Necessaire a ARPEGE pour ses Rejets et

son Initialisation) (Taillefer, 2002). The analysis method is Optimal Interpolation and only conventional

synoptic observations are used. 2 meter temperature and relative humidity observations are used to up-

date the surface and soil temperature and moisture.

The snow analysis is also performed with CANARI in analogy with the HIRLAM snow analysis. Snow

depth observations are used to update Snow Water Equivalent. The snow fields are analysed only at 06

and 18 UTC as there are very few snow depth observations at 00, 03, 09, 12, 15 and 21.

The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Sea Ice Concentration (SIC) is not analysed, but taken from

the boundaries. ECMWF uses the OSTIA (Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis)

product, including SST from UK Met Office and SIC from MET. SST and SIC for the Baltic Sea have

since 26 November 2015 been taken from the ocean model HIROMB run at SMHI.

The surface temperature over sea ice was taken from the boundary model and remained unchanged

through the forecast. A simple thermodynamical sea ice scheme (SICE) giving prognostic sea ice tem-

peratures in 4 fixed layers was introduced 26 November 2015.

Upper air analysis

AROME-MetCoOp runs three dimensional variational (3D VAR) data assimilation using conventional

observations from synop stations, ships, radiosondes and aircrafts and AMSU-A and AMSU-B/MHS

data from polar orbiting NOAA and METOP satellites. GNSS were introduced 17 February 2015, radar

reflectivities 16 June 2015 and IASI data 26 November 2015.

Boundary fields

AROME-MetCoOp gets its boundary values (1-hourly) from the ECMWF model at approximately 16

km resolution, and has currently 65 vertical levels. None of the HARMONIE configurations at MET

have applied digital filter initialization (DFI).

6

Verification measures

All model forecasts in this report are verified against observations by interpolating (linear) the grid based

forecasts to the observational sites. As a consequence, it should be noted that it is the models’ abilities

to forecast the observations that is being quantifed and assessed. Thus, there is no attempt in this report

to verify area averaged precipitation for example.

Verification is carried out both for raw and categorized forecasts. In the following, let f1, ..., fn denotethe forecasts and o1, ...,on the corresponding observations.

Forecasts of continuous variables

The verification statistics applied to continuous variables are defined in the table below

Statistic Acronym Formula Range Optimal score

Mean Error ME1

n∑ni=1( fi−oi) −∞ to ∞ 0

Mean Absolute Error MAE1

n∑ni=1 | fi−oi | 0 to ∞ 0

Standard Deviation of Error SDE

( 1

n

n

∑i=1

( fi−oi−ME)2)1/2

0 to ∞ 0

Root Mean Square Error RMSE

( 1

n

n

∑i=1

( fi−oi)2)1/2

0 to ∞ 0

Correlation COR

1n ∑

ni=1( fi− f )(oi− o)

SD( f )SD(o)−1 to 1 1

In the formula for COR the following definitions are used

f =1

n

n

∑i=1

fi, o =1

n

n

∑i=1

oi

SD( f ) =(1

n

n

∑i=1

( fi− f )2)1/2

, SD(o) =(1

n

n

∑i=1

(oi− o)2)1/2

for the means and standard deviations of the forecasts and observations.

7

Forecasts of categorical variables

All variables in this report are continuous in raw form, but it is possible to categorize them and verify

these. For example, wind speed above a given threshold could be of interest which would result in two

possible outcomes (yes and no). The verification is then completely summarized by a contingency table

as the one shown below

event observed

yes no

yes a bevent forecasted

no c d

Verification statistics for such forecasts are listed in the following table

Statistic Acronym Formula Range Optimal score

Hit rate HRa

a+ c0 to 1 1

False alarm rate Fb

b+d0 to 1 0

False alarm ratio FARb

a+b0 to 1 0

Equitable threat score ETSa−ar

a+b+ c−ar−1/3 to 1 1 (0 = no skill)

Hanssen-Kuipers skill score KSS HR - F −1 to 1 1 (0 = no skill)

Heidke skill score HSS(a+d)/n− ss f

1− ss f−∞ to 1 1 (0 = no skill)

In the formula for ETS ar = (a+b)(a+ c)/n.In the formula for HSS the score for the standard forecast ss f = [(a+b)(a+ c)+(b+d)(c+d)]/n2.

Observations

All observations come from Klimadatavarehuset at MET. Only synop stations are used. The model wind

speed is verified against mean wind observations, FF. The post processed wind speed is intended to

represent maximum wind speed 10m last hour, and is verified against FX.

8

Sep to Nov 2015 Variables at pressure levels

1111

1

1

1

1

1

2222

2

2

2

2

2

3333

3

3

3

3

3

44

44

4

4

4

4

4

5555

5

5

5

5

5

−30 −20 −10 0 10 20

800

600

400

200

12345

+0+12+24+36+48

ME AM25 00 UTC

111

11

1

1

1

1

1

22222

2

2

2

2

2

33

333

3

3

3

3

3

44444

4

4

4

4

4

55

555

5

5

5

5

5

−30 −20 −10 0 10 20

800

600

400

200

12345

+0+12+24+36+48

ME Hirlam12 00 UTC

11111

1

1

1

1

1

22222

2

2

2

2

2

33

333

3

3

3

3

3

44444

4

4

4

4

4

55

555

5

5

5

5

5

−30 −20 −10 0 10 20

800

600

400

200

12345

+0+12+24+36+48

ME ECMWF 00 UTC

11

11

1

1

1

1

1

22

22

2

2

2

2

2

3333

3

3

3

3

3

444

4

4

4

4

4

4

55

55

5

5

5

5

5

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

800

600

400

200

12345

+0+12+24+36+48

SDE AM25 00 UTC

11

11

1

1

1

1

1

1

22

222

2

2

2

2

2

33

333

3

3

3

3

3

44

444

4

4

4

4

4

55

555

5

5

5

5

5

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

800

600

400

200

12345

+0+12+24+36+48

SDE Hirlam12 00 UTC

11

11

1

1

1

1

1

1

22

222

2

2

2

2

2

33

33

3

3

3

3

3

3

44

444

4

4

4

4

4

555

55

5

5

5

5

5

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

800

600

400

200

12345

+0+12+24+36+48

SDE ECMWF 00 UTC

Geopotential height at 3 Norwegian stations

1111

1

1

1

1

1

22

22

2

2

2

2

2

33

33

3

3

3

3

3

44

44

4

4

4

4

4

555

5

5

5

5

5

5

−1.5 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

800

600

400

200

12345

+0+12+24+36+48

ME AM25 00 UTC

11

111

1

1

1

1

1

22

222

2

2

2

2

2

3333

3

3

3

3

3

3

44

44

4

4

4

4

4

4

55

55

5

5

5

5

5

5

−1.5 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

800

600

400

200

12345

+0+12+24+36+48

ME Hirlam12 00 UTC

11

11

1

1

1

1

1

1

22

22

2

2

2

2

2

2

33

33

3

3

3

3

3

3

44

444

4

4

4

4

4

55

55

5

5

5

5

5

5

−1.5 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

800

600

400

200

12345

+0+12+24+36+48

ME ECMWF 00 UTC

11

11

1

1

1

1

1

2222

2

2

2

2

2

33

33

3

3

3

3

3

44

44

4

4

4

4

4

55

55

5

5

5

5

5

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

800

600

400

200

12345

+0+12+24+36+48

SDE AM25 00 UTC

11

11

1

1

1

1

1

1

22

22

2

2

2

2

2

2

333

33

3

3

3

3

3

44

444

4

4

4

4

4

55

55

5

5

5

5

5

5

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

800

600

400

200

12345

+0+12+24+36+48

SDE Hirlam12 00 UTC

11111

1

1

1

1

1

22

22

2

2

2

2

2

2

333

33

3

3

3

3

3

44

44

4

4

4

4

4

4

55

55

5

5

5

5

5

5

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

800

600

400

200

12345

+0+12+24+36+48

SDE ECMWF 00 UTC

Wind speed at 3 Norwegian stations

9

Sep to Nov 2015 Variables at pressure levels

11

11

1

1

1

1

1

22

22

2

2

2

2

2

33

33

3

3

3

3

3

444

4

4

4

4

4

4

55

55

5

5

5

5

5

−20 −10 0 10 20

800

600

400

200

12345

+0+12+24+36+48

ME AM25 00 UTC

11

11

1

1

1

1

1

1

22

22

2

2

2

2

2

2

33

33

3

3

3

3

3

3

44

44

4

4

4

4

4

4

55

55

5

5

5

5

5

5

−20 −10 0 10 20

800

600

400

200

12345

+0+12+24+36+48

ME Hirlam12 00 UTC

11

11

1

1

1

1

1

1

22

22

2

2

2

2

2

2

33

33

3

3

3

3

3

3

44

44

4

4

4

4

4

4

55

55

5

5

5

5

5

5

−20 −10 0 10 20

800

600

400

200

12345

+0+12+24+36+48

ME ECMWF 00 UTC

11

11

1

1

1

1

1

22

22

2

2

2

2

2

33

33

3

3

3

3

3

44

44

4

4

4

4

4

55

55

5

5

5

5

5

0 10 20 30 40

800

600

400

200

12345

+0+12+24+36+48

SDE AM25 00 UTC

11

11

1

1

1

1

1

1

22

22

2

2

2

2

2

2

33

33

3

3

3

3

3

3

44

44

4

4

4

4

4

4

55

55

5

5

5

5

5

5

0 10 20 30 40

800

600

400

200

12345

+0+12+24+36+48

SDE Hirlam12 00 UTC

11

11

1

1

1

1

1

1

22

22

2

2

2

2

2

2

33

33

3

3

3

3

3

3

44

44

4

4

4

4

4

4

55

55

5

5

5

5

5

5

0 10 20 30 40

800

600

400

200

12345

+0+12+24+36+48

SDE ECMWF 00 UTC

Relative humidity at 3 Norwegian stations

1111

1

1

1

1

1

2222

2

2

2

2

2

3333

3

3

3

3

3

4444

4

4

4

4

4

5555

5

5

5

5

5

−0.6 −0.4 −0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4

800

600

400

200

12345

+0+12+24+36+48

ME AM25 00 UTC

11111

1

1

1

1

1

22222

2

2

2

2

2

33333

3

3

3

3

3

44444

4

4

4

4

4

55555

5

5

5

5

5

−0.6 −0.4 −0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4

800

600

400

200

12345

+0+12+24+36+48

ME Hirlam12 00 UTC

1111

1

1

1

1

1

2222

2

2

2

2

2

3333

3

3

3

3

3

4444

4

4

4

4

4

5555

5

5

5

5

5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

800

600

400

200

12345

+0+12+24+36+48

SDE AM25 00 UTC

11111

1

1

1

1

1

22222

2

2

2

2

2

33333

3

3

3

3

3

44444

4

4

4

4

4

55555

5

5

5

5

5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

800

600

400

200

12345

+0+12+24+36+48

SDE Hirlam12 00 UTC

Specific humidity at 3 Norwegian stations

10

Sep to Nov 2015 Mean Sea Level Pressure

Lead time (hour)

Mean Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

−1.0

−0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

155 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66

ECMWF Hirlam8 AM25

Lead time (hour)

Standard Deviation of Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

155 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66

Lead time (hour)

Mean Absolute Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

155 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66

Lead time (hour)

Mean Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

−1.0

−0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

44 Nor. coastal stations 00+3,+6,...,+66

ECMWF Hirlam8 AM25

Lead time (hour)


3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


Lead time (hour)

Mean Absolute Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


Lead time (hour)

Mean Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

−1.0

−0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

43 Nor. inland stations 00+3,+6,...,+66

ECMWF Hirlam8 AM25

Lead time (hour)


3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


Lead time (hour)

Mean Absolute Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


11

Sep to Nov 2015 Mean Sea Level Pressure

Sep12 Dec12 Mar13 Jun13 Sep13 Dec13 Mar14 Jun14 Sep14 Dec14 Mar15 Jun15 Sep15

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Mean Absolute Error124 Norwegian stations 00+24,+30,+36,+42 UTC

ECMWF Hirlam8 Harmonie2.5 AROME_Norway AM25


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5



−1.5

−1.0

−0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Mean Error

12

Sep to Nov 2015 Temperature 2m

Lead time (hour)

Mean Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

−3

−2

−1

0

1

2

266 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66

ECMWF Hirlam8 AM25

Lead time (hour)


3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

266 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66

Lead time (hour)

Mean Absolute Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

266 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66

Lead time (hour)

Mean Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

−3

−2

−1

0

1

2


ECMWF Hirlam8 AM25

Lead time (hour)


3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5


Lead time (hour)

Mean Absolute Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5


Lead time (hour)

Mean Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

−3

−2

−1

0

1

2


ECMWF Hirlam8 AM25

Lead time (hour)


3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5


Lead time (hour)

Mean Absolute Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5


13



−3

−2

−1

0

1

00+24,+30,+36,+42 UTC


153 Norwegian stations


−3

−2

−1

0

1

43 Norwegian coastal stations


−3

−2

−1

0

1

40 Norwegian inland stations

Mean Error

14



0

1

2

3

4

5

00+24,+30,+36,+42 UTC




0

1

2

3

4

5



0

1

2

3

4

5



15



0

1

2

3

4

00+24,+30,+36,+42 UTC




0

1

2

3

4



0

1

2

3

4


Mean Absolute Error

16


−30

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

AM25 00+12ME at observing sites forecast means 01.09.2015 − 30.11.2015

−0.1

−0.7

−0.1

−0.3

−0.5

−0.9

−0.9

−1

−1.1

−0.6

−1.1

−0.9

−0.5

−0.3

−0.6−0.6

−0.9

−0.6

−0.7

−0.9

−1.1

−0.8

−0.5

−0.4

−0.2

−0.8

−0.5

−0.8

−0.4

−0.9

−0.3

−0.8

−0.8

−0.5

−1.1

−0.1

−0.5

−0.7

−0.8

−0.8

−0.7

−0.6

−0.7

−0.7

−0.5

−0.6

−0.6

−0.8

−0.9

−0.8

−0.6

−0.4

−0.3

−0.7 −0.5

−0.6

−0.7

−0.7

−0.8

−0.6

−0.6

−0.2

−0.9−0.9 −1.2

−1.1−0.5

−1.1−1

−0.5

−0.6−0.2−0.9

−1 −0.4−0.80−0.7

−0.6−1.2−0.9−0.9−0.9

−0.3−0.1

−0.6−0.3−1.3−0.4

0−0.8

−0.2

0.4

−0.7

0.40

0.2

0

0.7−0.5

−0.1

−0.3

−0.5−0.6

−0.3

1.4

1.5−0.4

−0.5

−0.7

−0.8−0.50.7

0.4−0.7−0.3

0.1−0.9−0.2

−0.5

2.6

0.30

−0.4−0.1

0.3

−0.7

−0.9−0.1

0.8−0.1

−0.8

−0.9

−0.5

1−0.10.6

0.4−1

−0.7

−0.6

−0.6−0.8

−0.4

−0.5

−0.6

−1

−0.8

−0.7

0.3

−0.4−1.1

0 0.8

−0.8

−0.7

−0.3

−0.5−0.2−0.7

−0.9

−0.7

−0.4

−0.3

−0.4−0.3

−0.5

−0.2−0.5

−0.8

−0.3−1

−0.5

−0.5−0.5−0.9

−0.1

0

−0.1

−0.5

−0.7

0.10.50.1

−0.4−0.7

−0.5−0.5 0.1

−0.1

−0.5

−0.6−0.8

0.8−0.2

−0.8 −0.7−0.6

−0.5−0.6−0.6

−0.1

−0.6−0.7−0.4−0.80.1−0.6

−0.90.1

−0.8

−0.4

−0.2

−0.4

0.1

0−0.7

−1.1−0.3

0.2

0.2

−0.7−0.3

−0.4

−0.1

−0.2

0.1

−0.3

−0.4−0.5−0.4

−0.3 −0.9

−0.7

0.5

−0.4

−0.7−0.3

−0.2

0

−0.5−0.6

−0.5

−0.3

−0.5

−0.4

−0.4

−0.2

0

0.3

−0.8

−1.90.1

−0.5

−0.1

−0.1

−0.7

−0.3

−0.5

−0.6

0

−0.6

17


−30

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


−1.4

0.2

1

1.3

0.1

0.5

−0.2

−1.2

−0.7

0

−0.9

−1.7

0.6

1.1

0.30

0.2

0.2

0.2

−1.4

−1

−0.8

−0.4

0.8

0.9

−0.4

−0.3

1.6

−0.5

0.8

0.2

0.5

0.6

−0.3

−0.6

0.3

0.2

0.5

0

0.5

0.4

−0.3

−0.6

0.1

−0.1

−0.3

−0.1

−0.7

0.4

0.1

−0.7

−0.2

0.7 −0.1

0.1

0.3

0

−0.3

1

−0.5

−0.2

−0.30.3

0.1

0.2

−0.4

−0.2−0.3

−0.3

−1.1−0.3−0.5

−0.2 1−0.3

1.1−1.2

−0.70.2−0.31.7−1.3

00.1

−0.1−1.1−0.3

−1

1.1−0.5

1.1

0.9

0.2

0.41.1

−0.2

−1.5−0.4−0.7

0.8

0.4

−1.3−0.9

−0.5

2.6

0.7−1.9−0.5

−1.4

0.20.2−0.2

0.4−1.30.5

0.81.30.7

−1

3

1.8−0.7

−0.2

1.8

0.7

−0.4

−0.6−1

0.7−0.6

1.3

−1.8

0.7

−0.8

−0.4

−0.3−1.2−1

−0.5−0.6

−1.2

−0.3

−0.9−0.9

0.2

−0.2

−1

−0.6

−1.2

−1.3

−0.4

0.2−1

0.11.1

−0.6

−0.6

−0.6

0.2−0.5−0.1

−0.9

−0.3

0

0.4

−0.3−0.1

−0.1

−0.4−0.4

−1.5

−0.9−1

−0.3

−0.4−0.1−0.8

0.1

0.2

0.8

−0.5

−1.1

−0.70.30.9

−0.3−0.8

0

−0.1 1.3

0.3

−0.6

−0.4−0.8

0.9−0.1

−0.7 −1−0.5

0.3−0.4−0.8

0.2

−0.8−0.9−0.5−0.31−0.7

−1.2−0.4

−0.9

0.1

1

−0.1

−0.7

0.1−1

−1.40.6

−0.7

0.1

−0.6−0.2

0.5

−0.7

0.4

0.8

−0.7

−0.7−0.6−1.1

−0.4 −1.4

−0.7

1.6−0.8

−1−0.3

−0.4

0.5

−1.2−1

−0.9

0.1

0.3

−0.2

0

0.1

0.6

1

−1.4

−1.70.9

0.5

0.7

0.6

1.3

0.6

0.8

−1.4

0.1

0.1

18


−30

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

AM25 00+12SDE at observing sites forecast means 01.09.2015 − 30.11.2015

1.1

2

1.9

1.6

1.3

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.8

1.2

1

1.1

1.3

1.6

1.50.9

1

1.1

2

1.3

1.6

1.3

1

1.1

2

1.2

1.1

1.3

1.1

1.3

0.9

0.9

1.3

0.9

1.6

1.9

1.4

1.7

1.3

1.6

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.1

0.9

1

1.2

1.1

0.8

1 1.1

1.1

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.1

1

0.8

10.9

1.1

1.1

0.7

11.1

0.8

1.11.21.3

1.3 1.41.51.6

1.31.61.4

1.21.31.4

1.41.5

1.61.51.4

1.7

21.2

2.2

2.3

1.7

2.32.5

1.8

1.52.11.6

2.41.9

1.51.3

1.53.1

2.91.4

1.5

1.4

1.51.82.2

2.11.42.3

21.41.7

1.7

3.2

2.51.8

1.61.6

1.9

1.5

1.21.2

2.41.7

1.6

1.4

3.7

1.5

1.2

2.9

2.11.43

2.91.8

1.5

0.9

1.31.1

1

1

1

1.4

1.2

1.7

1.7

1.81.5

1.62.2

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.61.41.41.1

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.21

1

1.10.8

1.2

1.41.4

1.2

1.11.10.9

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.2

1.2

1.41.41.6

1.70.8

11.2 2.1

2

1.3

11.4

0.80.9

0.9 11.1

1.30.81.2

1.2

1.31.31.41.51.91.3

0.91.1

1.4

1.9

2.4

1.2

0.9

0.91

1.52.31.3

2

1.31.1

1.6

1.2

1.8

2.7

1.6

11.11.1

0.7 0.9

1.6

2.91.2

0.80.9

0.9

2.1

1.10.7

1.4

1.8

1.7

1

0.9

0.6

1.8

2.4

1.7

1.62.8

2

2.22.6

1.6

2.62.1

1.7

1.6

2.2

19


−30

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


2

2.2

2.7

2.51.9

2.1

2

1.2

1.4

1.5

1.2

1.5

1.9

2.7

2.11.3

1.2

1.2

2.7

1.5

1.7

1

1.2

1.9

2.4

1.4

2

2.7

1.3

2.2

1.8

1.2

2.1

1

2.1

2.2

1.8

2.3

1.7

2

1.9

1.2

1.3

1.5

1.5

1.1

1.7

1.2

1

1.8

1.1

1.1

2 1.8

1.7

1.5

0.7

2.2

1.2

0.6

0.70.6

0.8

1

0.8

11

0.7

1.11.51.3

1.4 2.21.71.8

1.51.41.4

1.12.21.3

1.41.7

1.81.41.91.8

2.91

3.12.4

2.8

2.73.8

1.7

2.12.21.7

3.23.3

1.91.3

1.64.2

2.41.41.7

1.7

2.42.42

2.41.63.3

2.12.41.9

1.7

3.1

3.51.4

23.1

1.6

1.5

1.21

2.11.5

2

1.7

1.7

1.1

3

2.21.62.5

2.62.4

1.7

1

1.41.4

1

0.8

1.2

1.4

1

1.9

1.6

2.41.8

1.51.9

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.91.61.81.2

2

1.81.8

1.10.7

0.8

1.10.7

1.8

1.61.4

1.1

1.21.11.4

1.6

1.7

2

1.6

1.3

1.61.92.3

2.10.9

0.81.9 2.2

2.1

1.5

11.7

0.80.8

1.2 11

1.61.11.3

0.9

1.31.41.41.62.51.6

1.21.3

1.3

2.5

3.2

1.3

1.2

0.81

1.5

3.21.9

2

1.21.4

1.5

1.1

2.4

2.6

1.4

1.11.11.3

0.8 1.1

2.3

3.31.3

1.10.9

1

2.3

1.31.1

1.4

1.8

2.1

0.7

0.8

0.7

2.6

2.9

1.6

1.53.9

2.6

2.72.3

3

3.22.9

1.8

1.8

2.6

20


−30

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


−0.6

−0.7

−0.9

−0.7

−0.9

−0.6

−0.6

−0.6

−0.8

−0.2−0.9

−1 −0.4−0.8

0−0.7

−0.6−1.2−0.9−0.9−0.9

−0.3

−0.6−0.3−1.3

−0.4

−0.8

−0.2

0.4

0.40

0.2

0

0.7−0.5

−0.1

−0.3

−0.5−0.6

−0.3

1.4

1.5−0.4

−0.5

−0.7

−0.8−0.50.7

0.4

−0.7−0.3

0.1−0.9−0.2

−0.5

2.6

0.30

−0.4

−0.1

0.3

−0.7

−0.7

−0.9

−0.8−0.8−0.1

0.8

−0.9

−0.1

−0.5

−0.8

−0.9−0.7−0.8

−0.9−0.7

0.4

−0.9−0.2−0.6−0.6

0.2

−0.9

−0.5

−0.6−0.6−0.6

−0.8

−0.6

−0.9

−0.3

−0.6

−0.4

−0.6

−0.5−0.6−1.2

−0.9−0.2

1.3

−0.6

−0.7−0.5

−0.6

−0.3−0.6

−0.4

−0.3−0.7

1.5−0.1

−0.3

−1−0.8

1.401.6 −0.9

−0.2−0.4

−0.2

0.5

0.4−0.2

−0.4−0.5

−0.20.8 0.8

1

−0.5

2

−0.4

−1

−0.5

0.3−0.2

0.1

−0.4

−0.5

−0.7

−0.1−0.3

0

0.2−0.4

−0.50.1

1−0.10.6

−0.6

0.4−1

−0.7

−0.6

−0.6

−0.8

−0.4

−0.5

−0.6

−1

−0.8

−0.7

0.3

−0.4−1.1

0 0.8

−0.8

−0.7

−0.3

−0.5−0.2−0.7

−0.9

−0.4−0.3

−0.5

−0.4

−0.4

−0.2

−0.4

−0.8

−1

−0.2

21


−30

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


0.3

−0.3

−0.4

−0.8

−0.2

0

−1.1

−0.4

−0.3−0.5

−0.2 1−0.3

1.1−1.2

−0.70.2−0.31.7

−1.3

−0.1−1.1−0.3

−0.5

1.1

0.9

0.4

1.1

−0.2

−1.5−0.4−0.7

0.8

0.4

−1.3−0.9

−0.5

2.6

0.7−1.9

−0.5

−1.4

0.20.2−0.2

0.4

−1.30.5

0.81.30.7

−1

3

1.8−0.7

−0.2

1.8

0.7

−0.1

−0.4

−0.6

−0.4−1.2−1

0.7

0.5

−0.6

0

1.3

−1.8−0.1−1.2

0.3−0.1

0.8

010

−0.5

1.2

−1.2

0.3

0.4

0.10.4

−0.1

−0.2

−0.1

−0.6

−0.9

−0.4

0.6

−0.6−1.1−1.4

−0.7−1

0.9

−1

0−0.2

0.1

−0.4−0.2

−0.8

−0.6−1.6

1

−0.5

−0.4

−1.1−1.1

0.9−0.10.7 −0.8

0.5−0.4

−0.3

−0.3

0.4−0.3

0.3−0.7

00.4 0.6

1

−0.8

1.4

0

−0.8

−0.7

−0.30.6

0.7

−1.2

−0.8

−0.5

0.3−2

−1.6

−0.4−1.7

0−0.5

−0.3

−1.2−1

−0.3

−0.5−0.6

−1.2

−0.3

−0.9

−0.9

0.2

−0.2

−1

−0.6

−1.2

−1.3

−0.4

0.2−1

0.1 1.1

−0.6

−0.6

−0.6

−0.5−0.1−0.9

−0.3−0.1

−0.1

−0.2

0

0.1

−0.2

−0.5

−0.4

−0.1

22


−30

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


1.1

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

1.1

0.8

1.21.3

1.3 1.41.5

1.61.3

1.61.41.21.31.4

1.4

1.61.51.4

1.7

1.2

2.2

2.3

2.32.5

1.8

1.52.11.6

2.4

1.9

1.51.3

1.5

3.1

2.91.4

1.5

1.4

1.51.82.2

2.11.42.3

21.41.7

1.7

3.2

2.51.8

1.61.6

1.9

0.9

1.5

1.2

0.81.21.2

2.4

1.2

1.7

1.4

1.6

1.41.31.1

1.1 1

2.1

1.11.41.31.5

1.8

1.5

1.7

10.91

0.9

1

1

0.8

1.1

0.9

1.2

0.80.80.9

0.91

1.9

0.8

10.91.1

11.1

0.7

11.3

2.2

1.7

1.9

1.31

21.52.5 1.5

1.61.2

0.9

1.8

1.80.9

1.30.8

1.4 1.6 1.6

2.3

1.4

3.7

1.2

1.6

0.9

2.1 1.6

1.5

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.91.2

1.1

2.91.2

1 1.32.11.43

1.1

2.91.8

1.5

0.9

1.3

1.1

1

1

1

1.4

1.2

1.7

1.7

1.81.5

1.62.2

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.61.41.4

1.1

1.21

1

1

0.9

0.6

0.9

0.8

1.1

0.9

23


−30

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


1.6

0.8

0.8

1.1

0.8

1.3

1.3

1.1

0.8

1.51.3

1.4 2.21.7

1.81.5

1.41.41.12.21.3

1.4

1.81.41.9

1.8

1

3.1

2.4

2.73.8

1.7

2.12.21.7

3.2

3.3

1.91.3

1.6

4.2

2.41.4

1.7

1.7

2.42.42

2.41.63.3

2.12.41.9

1.7

3.1

3.51.4

23.1

1.6

1

1.5

1.2

0.91.21

2.1

1.2

1.5

2.2

2

1.721.1

1.6 1

1.9

1.121.51.3

2.6

1.6

2.6

1.70.91.3

1

0.9

1.7

1.1

1.2

0.8

1.9

1.21.41.4

1.71.3

2.2

0.8

1.30.81.8

1.41.5

0.8

1.11.5

2.5

1.9

1.7

1.61.2

1.51.42.1 1.9

1.51.4

1.1

1.3

1.70.8

1.50.9

1.31.9 2

2.9

1.2

2.8

1.4

2

1.2

1.8 1.9

1.7

1.5

1.1

0.9

2.41.9

1.7

31.6

1.4 1.3

2.21.62.5

1

2.62.4

1.7

1

1.4

1.4

1

0.8

1.2

1.4

1

1.9

1.6

2.41.8

1.51.9

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.91.61.8

1.2

1.10.7

0.8

0.7

0.8

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.7

0.7

24


−30

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


−0.9

−1

−1.1

−1.1

−0.7

−0.9

−1.1

−0.8

−0.6

−0.2

−0.8

−0.7

−0.9

−0.3

−0.6

−0.6

−0.8

−0.2−0.9

−1 −0.4−0.8

0−0.7

−0.6−1.2−0.9−0.9−0.9

−0.3−0.1

−0.6−0.3−1.3

−0.4

0

−0.8

−0.2

0.4

−0.7

0.4

0

0.2

0

0.7−0.5

−0.1

−0.3

−0.5

−0.6

−0.3

1.4

1.5−0.4

−0.5

−0.7

−0.8

−0.50.7

0.4

−0.7−0.3

0.1−0.9

−0.2

−0.5

2.6

0.30

−0.4

−0.1

0.3

−0.7

−0.7

−0.9

−0.8−0.8

−0.1

0.8

−0.9

−0.1

−0.5

−0.8

−0.9−0.7−0.8

−0.9−0.7

0.4

−0.9−0.2−0.6

−0.6

0.2

−0.9

−0.5

−0.6

−0.6−0.6−0.6

−0.9

1.3

−0.7

1.5

−0.1

−0.3

−1−0.8

1.401.6−0.9

−0.2

0.80.8

1

−0.5

2

0.3−0.2

0.1

−0.4

−0.5

−0.1−0.3

0

0.2−0.4

−0.50.1

1−0.10.6

−0.6

0.4−1

−0.7

−0.6

−0.6

−0.8

−0.4

−0.6

−0.7

0.3

−0.4−1.1

0 0.8

−0.8

−0.5−0.2−0.7

−0.9

25


−30

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


−0.2

−1.2

−0.7

−0.9

0.2

−1.4

−1

−0.8

0.3

0.9

−0.4

−0.3

−0.4

−0.7

0.1

−1.1

−0.4

−0.3−0.5

−0.2 1−0.3

1.1−1.2

−0.70.2

−0.31.7−1.3

00.1

−0.1−1.1−0.3

−1

1.1−0.5

1.1

0.9

0.2

0.4

1.1

−0.2

−1.5−0.4−0.7

0.8

0.4

−1.3−0.9

−0.5

2.6

0.7−1.9

−0.5

−1.4

0.2

0.2−0.2

0.4

−1.30.5

0.81.30.7

−1

3

1.8−0.7

−0.2

1.8

0.7

−0.1

−0.4

−0.6

−0.4

−1.2−1

0.7

0.5

−0.6

0

1.3

−1.8−0.1−1.2

0.3−0.1

0.8

010

−0.5

1.2

−1.2

0.3

0.4

0.10.4−0.2

−0.1

0.9

−1.6

1

−0.5

−0.4

−1.1−1.1

0.9−0.10.7

−0.8

0.5

0.40.6

1

−0.8

1.4

−0.30.6

0.7

−1.2

−0.8

0.3−2

−1.6

−0.4−1.7

0−0.5

−0.3

−1.2−1

−0.3

−0.5−0.6

−1.2

−0.3

−0.9

−0.9

0.2

−1

−1.3

−0.4

0.2

−1

0.1 1.1

−0.6

0.2−0.5−0.1

−0.9

26


−30

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


1.4

1.2

1.8

1

2

1.3

1.6

1.3

1.1

2

1.2

0.8

0.8

1.2

0.9

1.1

0.8

1.21.3

1.3 1.41.5

1.61.3

1.61.4

1.21.31.4

1.41.5

1.61.51.4

1.7

21.2

2.2

2.3

1.7

2.32.5

1.8

1.5

2.11.6

2.4

1.9

1.51.3

1.5

3.1

2.91.4

1.5

1.4

1.51.82.2

2.1

1.42.3

21.41.7

1.7

3.2

2.51.8

1.6

1.6

1.9

0.9

1.5

1.2

0.8

1.21.2

2.4

1.2

1.7

1.4

1.6

1.41.31.1

1.11

2.1

1.11.41.3

1.5

1.8

1.5

1.7

1

0.911

1

1.9

1.3

2.2

1.7

1.9

1.31

21.52.5 1.5

1.6

1.6 1.6

2.3

1.4

3.7

2.11.6

1.5

1.2

1.2

1.91.2

1.1

2.91.2

11.3

2.11.43

1.1

2.91.8

1.5

0.9

1.3

1.1

1

1

1.7

1.7

1.81.5

1.6 2.2

1.4

1.61.41.4

1.1

27


−30

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


2

1.2

1.4

1.2

2.7

1.5

1.7

1

1.6

2.4

1.4

0.8

0.8

1.5

1.3

1.1

0.8

1.51.3

1.4 2.21.7

1.81.5

1.41.4

1.12.21.3

1.41.7

1.81.41.9

1.8

2.91

3.1

2.4

2.8

2.73.8

1.7

2.1

2.21.7

3.2

3.3

1.91.3

1.6

4.2

2.41.4

1.7

1.7

2.42.42

2.4

1.63.3

2.12.41.9

1.7

3.1

3.51.4

2

3.1

1.6

1

1.5

1.2

0.9

1.21

2.1

1.2

1.5

2.2

2

1.721.1

1.61

1.9

1.121.5

1.3

2.6

1.6

2.6

1.7

0.91.30.9

1.7

2.2

1.5

2.5

1.9

1.7

1.61.2

1.51.42.1 1.9

1.5

1.9 2

2.9

1.2

2.8

1.81.9

1.7

1.5

1.1

2.41.9

1.7

31.6

1.41.3

2.21.62.5

1

2.62.4

1.7

1

1.4

1.4

1

1.2

1.9

1.6

2.41.8

1.5 1.9

1.6

1.91.61.8

1.2

28


Sep 02 Sep 07 Sep 12 Sep 17 Sep 22 Sep 27

−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

15

idate

01.09.2015 − 30.09.2015

Cels

ius

Oct 02 Oct 07 Oct 12 Oct 17 Oct 22 Oct 27 Nov 01

−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

15

idate

01.10.2015 − 31.10.2015

Cels

ius

Nov 01 Nov 06 Nov 11 Nov 16 Nov 21 Nov 26 Dec 01

−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

15

idate

01.11.2015 − 30.11.2015

Cels

ius

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 −4.4 5 16.7 4.1 364

AM25: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −5.7 4.3 17 4.3 359

Hirlam8: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −4.4 4.6 16 4 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −14.6 2.2 17.5 5.6 364

ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N

AM25 − synop −0.7 1.5 1.6 1.3 5.7 359

Hirlam8 − synop −0.4 1.4 1.5 1.2 4.9 360

ECMWF − synop −2.8 2.4 3.6 3 12.3 364

01.09.2015 − 30.11.2015

TROMSØ

29



−30

−20

−10

0

10

20

idate

01.09.2015 − 30.09.2015

Cels

ius


−30

−20

−10

0

10

20

idate

01.10.2015 − 31.10.2015

Cels

ius


−30

−20

−10

0

10

20

idate

01.11.2015 − 30.11.2015

Cels

ius

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 −28.8 0.5 21.2 7.9 364

AM25: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −16.2 0.6 19.5 6.3 359

Hirlam8: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −20 −0.3 14.6 5.6 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −22.2 0.6 17.7 6.4 364


AM25 − synop 0.2 3 3 1.9 20.1 359

Hirlam8 − synop −0.8 3.3 3.4 2.6 13.8 360

ECMWF − synop 0.1 2.7 2.7 1.9 16.4 364

01.09.2015 − 30.11.2015

KAUTOKEINO

30



0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.09.2015 − 30.09.2015

Cels

ius


0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.10.2015 − 31.10.2015

Cels

ius


0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.11.2015 − 30.11.2015

Cels

ius

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 −3.3 8.9 21.5 3.9 364

AM25: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −2.4 8.1 18.7 4 359

Hirlam8: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −1 9.2 18.2 3.6 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −1.3 8.1 19.6 4 364


AM25 − synop −0.7 1.1 1.3 1.1 4 359

Hirlam8 − synop 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.9 5.5 360

ECMWF − synop −0.8 1.1 1.3 1.1 4 364

01.09.2015 − 30.11.2015

ØRLAND

31



−5

0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.09.2015 − 30.09.2015

Cels

ius


−5

0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.10.2015 − 31.10.2015

Cels

ius


−5

0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.11.2015 − 30.11.2015

Cels

ius

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 −3.8 9.9 21 4.3 364

AM25: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −2.7 8.6 19.8 3.8 359

Hirlam8: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −6 8.5 19.4 4.1 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −3.9 8.5 17.5 3.8 364


AM25 − synop −1.2 1.4 1.9 1.6 6.8 359

Hirlam8 − synop −1.4 1.4 2 1.6 5.2 360

ECMWF − synop −1.4 1.3 1.9 1.5 5.2 364

01.09.2015 − 30.11.2015

BERGEN − FLORIDA

32



−20

−10

0

10

idate

01.09.2015 − 30.09.2015

Cels

ius


−20

−10

0

10

idate

01.10.2015 − 31.10.2015

Cels

ius


−20

−10

0

10

idate

01.11.2015 − 30.11.2015

Cels

ius

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 −21.5 1.6 17.2 5.1 364

AM25: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −14.8 −0.3 13.3 4.3 359

Hirlam8: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −16.8 −0.9 12.2 4.3 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −17.9 −0.5 14.1 5.3 364


AM25 − synop −1.8 1.8 2.6 2.3 9.1 359

Hirlam8 − synop −2.5 1.7 3 2.8 7.8 360

ECMWF − synop −2 2 2.8 2.5 7.8 364

01.09.2015 − 30.11.2015

FINSEVATN

33



−10

0

10

20

idate

01.09.2015 − 30.09.2015

Cels

ius


−10

0

10

20

idate

01.10.2015 − 31.10.2015

Cels

ius


−10

0

10

20

idate

01.11.2015 − 30.11.2015

Cels

ius

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 −17.1 3.8 18.7 6.7 364

AM25: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −7.7 5.1 20 5 359

Hirlam8: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −17.2 1.3 15.5 5.4 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −17.5 1.9 17.1 5.7 364


AM25 − synop 1.4 3.3 3.5 2.9 10.5 359

Hirlam8 − synop −2.5 3 3.9 3.2 9.4 360

ECMWF − synop −1.9 2.8 3.4 2.8 8.7 364

01.09.2015 − 30.11.2015

NESBYEN

34



4

6

8

10

12

14

16

idate

01.09.2015 − 30.09.2015

Cels

ius


4

6

8

10

12

14

16

idate

01.10.2015 − 31.10.2015

Cels

ius


4

6

8

10

12

14

16

idate

01.11.2015 − 30.11.2015

Cels

ius

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 4.3 11.6 17.1 2.3 364

AM25: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 3.6 11.7 15.1 2 359

Hirlam8: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 5.8 12.1 15.6 2 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 5.4 11.9 15.4 2.1 364


AM25 − synop 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.6 3.8 359

Hirlam8 − synop 0.5 1 1.1 0.9 3.8 360

ECMWF − synop 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.6 3.9 364

01.09.2015 − 30.11.2015

EKOFISK

35



−5

0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.09.2015 − 30.09.2015

Cels

ius


−5

0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.10.2015 − 31.10.2015

Cels

ius


−5

0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.11.2015 − 30.11.2015

Cels

ius

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 −4.7 10.4 20.2 4 364

AM25: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −7.8 8.9 19.2 4.2 359

Hirlam8: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −2.7 9.7 19.1 3.7 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 1.1 10.1 17.2 3 364


AM25 − synop −1.4 1.3 1.9 1.6 6.3 359

Hirlam8 − synop −0.7 1.3 1.5 1.2 5.5 360

ECMWF − synop −0.3 1.8 1.8 1.4 6.3 364

01.09.2015 − 30.11.2015

SOLA

36



−10

−5

0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.09.2015 − 30.09.2015

Cels

ius


−10

−5

0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.10.2015 − 31.10.2015

Cels

ius


−10

−5

0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.11.2015 − 30.11.2015

Cels

ius

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 −7 7.6 20.8 5.2 364

AM25: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −6.4 6.8 20.5 5.1 359

Hirlam8: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −9.4 6.2 18.2 5.4 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −6.9 6.2 19.2 4.9 364


AM25 − synop −0.7 1.4 1.5 1.2 5.4 359

Hirlam8 − synop −1.4 1.6 2.1 1.6 6.7 360

ECMWF − synop −1.4 1.3 1.9 1.6 4.6 364

01.09.2015 − 30.11.2015

OSLO − BLINDERN

37

Sep to Nov 2015 Post processed temperature 2m (AMHC and AMKF)

Lead time (hour)

Mean Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

−1.5

−1.0

−0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

262 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66

AM25 AMHC AMKF

Lead time (hour)


3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

262 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66

Lead time (hour)

Mean Absolute Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

262 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66

Lead time (hour)

Mean Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

−1.5

−1.0

−0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5


AM25 AMHC AMKF

Lead time (hour)


3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5


Lead time (hour)

Mean Absolute Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5


Lead time (hour)

Mean Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

−1.5

−1.0

−0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5


AM25 AMHC AMKF

Lead time (hour)


3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5


Lead time (hour)

Mean Absolute Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5


38

Sep to Nov 2015 Wind speed 10m

Lead time (hour)

Mean Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

−1.0

−0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

251 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66

ECMWF Hirlam8 AM25

Lead time (hour)


3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

251 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66

Lead time (hour)

Mean Absolute Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

251 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66

Exceedance threshold (m/s)

3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Hit Rate

251 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36

ECMWF Hirlam8 AM25


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

False Alarm Rate

251 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

False Alarm Ratio

251 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Equitable Threat Score

251 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36

ECMWF Hirlam8 AM25


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Hansen−Kuiper Skill Score

251 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Heidke Skill Score

251 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36

39



−5

−4

−3

−2

−1

0

1

200+24,+30,+36,+42 UTC




−5

−4

−3

−2

−1

0

1



−5

−4

−3

−2

−1

0

1

25 Norwegian mountainous stations

Mean Error

40



1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

00+24,+30,+36,+42 UTC




1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5



1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5



41



1

2

3

4

5

00+24,+30,+36,+42 UTC




1

2

3

4

5



1

2

3

4

5


Mean Absolute Error

42


0.0

1.5

3.4

5.4

7.9

13.8


−3.6

1.9

0.1

−0.2

0.1

1.3

1

0.5

0.4

0.9

0.6

−1.2

0.8

−0.1

0.60.7

0

−0.5

0.4

−0.4

0.8

0.2

−0.2

0.1

0.3

0.1

0.7

0.3

−0.1

0.8

−0.1

−0.2

0

0.3

0.3

−0.6

0.4

0.5

0.8

0.5

−0.3

−0.7

−0.6

−0.1

−1.9

0.1

−0.4

1.1

−0.7

−0.8

1.6 0.2

−0.3

0.6

−0.1

0.4

1.7

−1

0.3

−0.50.1

−0.9

0.3

−0.4

0.8

−0.3

−0.9−0.5

−0.5

−0.30

1.3−0.4

−0.4−0.4

0.3

−0.2

0.8

0.3−0.4

−0.5

−0.5

0.9

−0.5

0.1

0

0.20.30.9

−2.11.3

0.4−3

0.2

−0.1−0.80.8

−0.70.5

0.40.70.4

−0.1

0.3

−0.6

1−0.1

0.1

−0.2

−0.6

−0.5

0

0.6

−0.9

−0.9

−0.7

−1.31.5

0.2

0.1

0.5−0.9

1.1

0.8

−1

−0.9

−0.1

−0.9

−0.9

1.11.1

0.2

1

−0.5

0−1.2

0.1

0.4

0.7−1.1

−0.7

−1−1.6

0

1.3−0.8

0.2

−0.42

−0.2

0.3

1.5

1.1

1.8

0.1

1.2−0.51

0.4−0.6

0.1−0.6

0.4

−0.9−0.6

−0.31

−0.1 0.20.3

−0.1−0.50.6

−0.1

0.4−1.3

−0.1

1.6

−0.2

0.6

−3.9

−1.6−0.1

2.10.9

0.2

0.6−0.5

0.1

0.8

−0.1

−0.6

−0.6

−10.6−2.4

−0.9 −0.4

−1.2

0.4

−3.8

0.30.1

−0.3

0.8

−1.41.2

0.1

2

1.1

1.3

1.5

0

0.7

−2.2

3.50.1

0.7

0.3

0.6

0.3

1.1

1.3

−1.3

0.3

−0.1

43


0.0

1.5

3.4

5.4

7.9

13.8


2.6

1.9

1.1

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.4

2.4

1.3

1.1

1.5

1.5

1

1.4

1.41.7

2

1.9

1.4

2.1

1.1

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.1

1

1.9

1

0.8

0.9

1

1.3

1

1.4

1.6

1.4

1.2

1

1.5

0.9

1.1

1.8

1.61

1.7

1.1

1.8

1.90.9

1.4

1.1 1.4

1.1

0.9

1.2

1.6

1.2

1.2

2.4

1.61.6 1.8

1.91.3

1.9

1.7

1.61.1

1.1

1.11.4

1.31.2

11.11.1

1

1.2

11.2

1.1

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.61.922.1

3.32.11.6

2.21.3

11.71.5

1.62

1.11.21

0.9

1

2

1.61.5

0.9

1.3

1.2

1.2

11.4

2.2

1.6

1.6

1.93.11.9

2.1

2.31.1

1.7

2.6

2.7

1.7

2.3

1.5

1.3

1.8

1.31.4

1.5

1.4

2

1.42.2

1.3

1.5

22.5

2.3

1.62

2

1.82

2

1.52.61.8

1.4

1.4

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.71.21.8

1.61.9

1.91.6

1.5

2.41.6

1.92.4

1.8 2.42.1

2.11.91.7

1.9

1.61.7

2.4

1.8

1.9

3

3

2.91.9

1.82.6

2.4

2.11.8

1.8

2

1.1

1.3

1.9

2.82.53.1

1.9 2.3

2

1.1

2.5

1.72.12.1

1.5

2.62

1.9

1.2

2

1.8

2.4

1.5

1.6

2.4

3.22

1.2

1.71.2

0.9

1.7

1.62.2

1.9

1.8

44


0.0

1.5

3.4

5.4

7.9

13.8


−0.7

−0.3

0.2

0.1

1.3

−0.2

−0.9

−0.5

−0.5

−0.5

−0.30

1.3−0.4

−0.4−0.4

0.3

−0.2

0.8

−0.4

−0.5

−0.5

−0.5

0.1

0

0.20.30.9

−2.11.3

0.4

−3

0.2

−0.1

−0.80.8

−0.70.5

0.40.70.4

−0.1

0.3

−0.6

1−0.1

0.1

0.2

−0.2

−0.20.2

−0.6

−0.5

0.8

0

0.4

0.6

−0.91.90.3

0.7−0.5

0.9

0.60.4

−0.5

0.7

−0.4

1.2

−0.80.2

−0.6

−1.3

1.5

−0.3

−0.2

1.1

−1.20

−0.5

1.30.7−1.3

−1.2

−1−0.2

−0.7

−0.2

−0.10.6

1.60.7

−0.1−0.3

0.7

−1

0.10

0.20

0

1

−2.7

−0.40.5

−0.9

−0.7

−0.8

0.3−1.7

−2.9

0.4−0.7

0.40

−1.31.5

−0.2

0.2

0.1

0.5

−0.9

1.1

0.8

−1

−0.9

−0.1

−0.9

−0.9

1.1 1.1

0.2

1

−0.5

−1.2

0.7−1.1

−0.7

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.4

0.5

0.9

1.8

45


0.0

1.5

3.4

5.4

7.9

13.8


1.3

2

1.5

1

1.8

1.2

1.5

1.6

1.11.6

1.1

1.11.4

1.31.2

11.1

1.1

1

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.4

1.2

1.1

1.61.922.1

3.32.1

1.62.2

1.3

11.71.5

1.62

1.11.21

0.9

1

2

1.61.5

0.9

1.9

1.3

1.91

1.2

1.2

1.9

1

1.1

1.4

2.22.62.3

1.41.9

1.2

1.511.7

1.8

2.1

2.1

1.21.8

1.71.8

2.2

2.9

1.8

1.7

1.91.31.5

21.61.8

1.8

1.41.7

1.82.5

231.91.7

3.11.82

1.8

2.22.7

2.2 1.7

1.4

2.8

3.5

2.11.1

1.6

1.6

2.91.62.1

2.4

1.92.4

2.2 1.9

3.11.9

2.5

2.1

2.3

1.1

1.7

2.6

2.7

1.7

2.3

1.5

1.3

1.8

1.31.4

1.5

1.4

1.42.2

22.5

2.3

2

1.8

2.4

1.8

1.5

1.8

1.6

46


0.0

1.5

3.4

5.4

7.9

13.8


1

0.5

0.4

0.6

0.4

−0.4

0.8

0.2

1

0.3

0.1

−0.7

−0.3

−0.5

1.3

−0.9

−0.5

−0.5

−0.5

−0.30

1.3−0.4

−0.4−0.4

0.3

−0.2

0.8

0.3

−0.4

−0.5

−0.5

0.9

−0.5

0.1

0

0.20.30.9

−2.11.3

0.4

−3

0.2

−0.1

−0.80.8

−0.70.5

0.40.7

0.4

−0.1

0.3

−0.6

1

−0.1

0.1

0.2

−0.2

−0.2

0.2

−0.6

−0.5

0.8

0

0.4

0.6

−0.91.90.3

0.7−0.5

0.9

0.60.4

−0.5

0.7

−0.4

1.2

−0.8

0.2−1.3

1.5

−0.2

−0.10.6

1.60.7

−0.1

0.20

0

1

−0.40.5

−0.9

−0.7

0.3−1.7

−2.9

0.4−0.7

0.40

−1.31.5

−0.2

0.2

0.1

0.5

−0.9

1.1

−1

−0.1

−0.9

−0.9

1.1 1.1

0.2

0−1.2

47


0.0

1.5

3.4

5.4

7.9

13.8


1.4

2.4

1.3

1.5

1.4

2.1

1.1

1.3

1.3

1.1

1

2

1.5

1.2

1.2

1.6

1.1

1.6

1.1

1.11.4

1.31.2

11.1

1.1

1

1.2

11.2

1.1

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.6

1.922.1

3.32.1

1.62.2

1.3

1

1.71.5

1.62

1.11.2

1

0.9

1

2

1.6

1.5

0.9

1.9

1.3

1.91

1.2

1.2

1.9

1

1.1

1.4

2.22.62.3

1.41.9

1.2

1.51

1.7

1.8

2.1

2.1

1.2

1.81.8

2.2

2.5

23

1.91.7

3.1

2.2 1.7

1.4

2.8

2.11.1

1.6

1.6

1.62.1

2.4

1.92.4

2.2 1.9

3.11.9

2.5

2.1

2.3

1.1

1.7

2.6

1.7

1.5

1.3

1.8

1.3 1.4

1.5

1.42.2

48



0

5

10

15

idate

01.09.2015 − 30.09.2015

m/s


0

5

10

15

idate

01.10.2015 − 31.10.2015

m/s


0

5

10

15

idate

01.11.2015 − 30.11.2015

m/s

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 0.3 3.2 14.1 2.3 364

AM25: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.1 3.8 15 2.7 359

Hirlam8: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.2 5.1 14.9 2.3 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.2 2.2 8.9 1.2 364


AM25 − synop 0.5 1.9 1.9 1.4 8.8 359

Hirlam8 − synop 1.8 1.8 2.5 2 8.7 360

ECMWF − synop −1 1.8 2.1 1.6 7.8 364

01.09.2015 − 30.11.2015

TROMSØ

49



0

5

10

15

idate

01.09.2015 − 30.09.2015

m/s


0

5

10

15

idate

01.10.2015 − 31.10.2015

m/s


0

5

10

15

idate

01.11.2015 − 30.11.2015

m/s

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 0.4 6.6 18.4 3.6 362

AM25: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.2 6.8 17.5 3.2 359

Hirlam8: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.1 7.1 18.9 3.1 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.4 5.8 13.5 2.6 364


AM25 − synop 0.2 2.2 2.2 1.6 7.5 357

Hirlam8 − synop 0.4 2.5 2.5 2 8.3 358

ECMWF − synop −0.8 2.3 2.4 1.9 8.6 362

01.09.2015 − 30.11.2015

SLETNES FYR

50



0

5

10

15

idate

01.09.2015 − 30.09.2015

m/s


0

5

10

15

idate

01.10.2015 − 31.10.2015

m/s


0

5

10

15

idate

01.11.2015 − 30.11.2015

m/s

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 0 6.3 19 3.5 364

AM25: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.5 5.4 14.4 2.7 359

Hirlam8: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.4 6.6 18 3 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.5 5 15 2.6 364


AM25 − synop −1 2 2.2 1.7 11.6 359

Hirlam8 − synop 0.2 2.1 2.1 1.6 8.4 360

ECMWF − synop −1.3 1.9 2.3 1.8 7.1 364

01.09.2015 − 30.11.2015

ØRLAND

51



0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.09.2015 − 30.09.2015

m/s


0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.10.2015 − 31.10.2015

m/s


0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.11.2015 − 30.11.2015

m/s

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 0.1 8.2 22.5 4.5 364

AM25: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.2 8.6 21.6 4.5 359

Hirlam8: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.5 8.6 20.7 4.3 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.2 7.9 18.2 4 364


AM25 − synop 0.3 2.8 2.8 2.1 9.8 359

Hirlam8 − synop 0.4 2.4 2.5 1.8 8.7 360

ECMWF − synop −0.3 2.6 2.6 1.9 9.6 364

01.09.2015 − 30.11.2015

YTTERØYANE FYR

52



0

5

10

15

idate

01.09.2015 − 30.09.2015

m/s


0

5

10

15

idate

01.10.2015 − 31.10.2015

m/s


0

5

10

15

idate

01.11.2015 − 30.11.2015

m/s

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 0.2 5.8 16.9 3.7 348

AM25: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.1 5.9 17.4 3.6 359

Hirlam8: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.1 5.4 12.5 2.8 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.3 2.9 7.7 1.7 364


AM25 − synop 0.2 2 2 1.5 6.1 343

Hirlam8 − synop −0.3 2 2.1 1.6 6.3 344

ECMWF − synop −2.9 2.6 3.9 3.1 11.4 348

01.09.2015 − 30.11.2015

FINSEVATN

53



0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.09.2015 − 30.09.2015

m/s


0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.10.2015 − 31.10.2015

m/s


0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.11.2015 − 30.11.2015

m/s

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 1 7.8 20.6 3.8 364

AM25: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.4 8.8 19.8 4.1 359

Hirlam8: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.7 8.6 20.2 3.9 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 1 8.5 19.1 3.7 364


AM25 − synop 0.9 1.9 2.1 1.6 10.1 359

Hirlam8 − synop 0.8 1.8 2 1.5 7.9 360

ECMWF − synop 0.6 1.9 2 1.4 12 364

01.09.2015 − 30.11.2015

EKOFISK

54



0

5

10

15

idate

01.09.2015 − 30.09.2015

m/s


0

5

10

15

idate

01.10.2015 − 31.10.2015

m/s


0

5

10

15

idate

01.11.2015 − 30.11.2015

m/s

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 1 7.6 18 3.6 364

AM25: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.4 7.3 18.1 3.5 359

Hirlam8: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.8 7.2 17.8 3.3 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.6 6.6 15.2 3.1 364


AM25 − synop −0.3 1.9 1.9 1.5 6.7 359

Hirlam8 − synop −0.3 2.1 2.1 1.6 6.4 360

ECMWF − synop −1.1 1.8 2.1 1.7 8.4 364

01.09.2015 − 30.11.2015

FERDER FYR

55

Sep to Nov 2015 Post processed maximum mean wind speed 10m (AMPP)

Lead time (hour)

Mean Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

−1.5

−1.0

−0.5

0.0

0.5

205 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66

AM25 AMPP

Lead time (hour)


3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

205 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66

Lead time (hour)

Mean Absolute Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

205 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Hit Rate

210 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36

AM25 AMPP


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

False Alarm Rate

210 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

False Alarm Ratio

210 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0


210 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36

AM25 AMPP


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0


210 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Heidke Skill Score

210 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36

56

Sep to Nov 2015 Wind gust (AM25 FG) and AM25 925

Lead time (hour)

Mean Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

−2

−1

0

1

2

208 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66

AM25_FG AM25_925

Lead time (hour)


3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

1

2

3

4

5

208 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66

Lead time (hour)

Mean Absolute Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

1

2

3

4

5

208 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Hit Rate

213 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36

AM25FG AM25925


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

False Alarm Rate

213 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

False Alarm Ratio

213 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0


213 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36

AM25FG AM25925


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0


213 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Heidke Skill Score

213 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36

57

Sep to Nov 2015 12 hour precipitation

Lead time (hour)

Mean Error

18 30 42 54 66

−1.0

−0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

177 Nor. stations 00+18,+30,...,+66

ECMWF Hirlam8 AM25

Lead time (hour)


18 30 42 54 66

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

177 Nor. stations 00+18,+30,...,+66

Lead time (hour)

Mean Absolute Error

18 30 42 54 66

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

177 Nor. stations 00+18,+30,...,+66

Exceedance threshold (mm)

0 0.1 1 2 5 10 15 20

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Hit Rate

193 Nor. stations 00+18,+30,+42,+54

ECMWF Hirlam8 AM25


0 0.1 1 2 5 10 15 20

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

False Alarm Rate

193 Nor. stations 00+18,+30,+42,+54


0 0.1 1 2 5 10 15 20

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

False Alarm Ratio

193 Nor. stations 00+18,+30,+42,+54


0 0.1 1 2 5 10 15 20

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0


193 Nor. stations 00+18,+30,+42,+54

ECMWF Hirlam8 AM25


0 0.1 1 2 5 10 15 20

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0


193 Nor. stations 00+18,+30,+42,+54


0 0.1 1 2 5 10 15 20

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Heidke Skill Score

193 Nor. stations 00+18,+30,+42,+54

58

Sep to Nov 2015 Daily precipitation


−4

−2

0

2

4

00+30 UTC




−4

−2

0

2

4

16 coastal stations


−4

−2

0

2

4

26 stations more than 500 m above sea level


−4

−2

0

2

4

15 stations with daily mean precipitation > 4 mm

Mean Error

59



0

2

4

6

8

10

00+30 UTC




0

2

4

6

8

10

16 coastal stations


0

2

4

6

8

10



0

2

4

6

8

10



60



0

1

2

3

4

5

6

700+30 UTC




0

1

2

3

4

5

6

716 coastal stations


0

1

2

3

4

5

6



0

1

2

3

4

5

6


Mean Absolute Error

61


012

4

7

10

15

20

25

30


0

0.4

0.1

−0.2

0.1

0.5

0.5

0.8

0

0.3

0.4

0.10

0.7

0.4

0.5

0.1

0

0.2

−0.5

0.1

−0.7

0.1

0.3

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.5

0.8

2

1.5

−0.4−0.8

0

−0.1 −0.2

−1.1−0.2

0.2

−0.40.10.50.2

−0.2

0.10

0.20.30.1

0.4

0.5−0.7

0.8

0.3

0.50.2

0.3

−0.1

0.50.6

1.1

1.3

0

−0.1

0.6

−0.1

0.6−0.1

−0.30.40.3

−0.2−0.5−0.3

0

0.5

00.20

0.1

3.9

−0.9

−0.7

0.6

0.5

0.6

3.5

1.121.5

4.31.8

0.2

0.2

−0.7

0.5

−0.7

0.7

0.7

0.4

0.40.6

0.70.7

0.5

0

1.30.60.4

−0.1

0.9

0.8

0.9

−0.4

1.7

2.2

0.2−0.3 −0.3

−0.6

0.7

0.4

0.8

0.9

0.2−0.8

1.9−0.9 0.3

1.2

1.1

0.3

0

−0.9

0.40.50.11.51.81.7

−0.1

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.1

0.1

0.1

−0.2

0.6

−0.1

−0.2

0.8

0.40.2

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.6

0.9

0.6

−0.1

0.7

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.7

22.4

0.4

62


012

4

7

10

15

20

25

30


1.3

1.3

2.1

1.9

2.8

1.8

2.8

2.6

3.41.3

1.6

1.52.7

2.9

4.6

2.3

1.3

2.7

1.8

2.5

3.4

5.22.1

1.7

2.2

1.4

1.8

1.8

2.6

3.3

2.8

4.82.8

2.5

3.4 2.9

4.72.3

2.2

3.14.13.22.84.5

3.13

1.61.53

2.6

2.33.3

3.7

2.2

1.40.9

2.2

1.211.3

2.3

3

2

2.1

3

2

2.32.8

2.41.72.3

4.34.53.3

3.1

3.6

2.22.62.6

4.5

9.7

5.2

4.94.2

3.1

2.4

6.4

45.84.9

8.44.7

3.8

1.95.2

3.5

4.4

3.9

1.7

2.4

1.91.9

2.53.1

2.2

2.2

3.62.93.32.4

3.9

3.8

4.8

5.1

4.2

5.4

4.14.2 4.4

5.4

3.9

4.1

3.3

4.24.4

2.7

5.84.1 2.3

3.3

3.4

3

3.1

3.8

3.63.85.254.66.3

3

3.1

2.1

3.1

2.2

4.8

2.42.6

1.9

2.3

3.7

1.7

1.7

2.7

1.4

1.5

1.3

2

2.7

1.7

1.6

1.7

1.3

1.7

2.8

1.7

3.33.7

1.6

63


012

4

7

10

15

20

25

30


−0.4

0.8

0.7

0.5

−0.5

0.3

0.2

−0.4−0.8

0

−0.1 −0.2

−1.1−0.2

0.2

−0.4

0.1

0.50.2−0.2

0.1

0.20.30.1

−0.7

0.8

0.50.2

0.3

−0.1

0.50.6

1.1

1.3

0

−0.1

0.6

−0.1

0.6−0.1

−0.3

0.40.3

−0.2−0.5

−0.3

0

0.5

00.20

0.1

3.9

−0.9

−0.7−0.2

0.6

0.2

0.5

0.60.1−0.1

−1.10.1

−0.4

0.6

0.1

0.4

−0.3

−0.5−0.9−1.8

−0.7

1.20

0

0−0.5

0.20.1

−0.9−0.9

0.6

0

−0.5

−2.1−2

0.2

−1.40.5

3.21.3

−0.4−1−0.8 2

−10.7

−0.9

0.2

0.9

−1.9−0.6

0.6

2.5

1.8

−2.3

3.4−0.3

−0.2

−1.3 1.8 3.53

−1.41.1

21.5

−0.4

4.31.8

0.2

0.2

−0.7

0.5

−0.7

0.7

0.7

0.4

0.4

0.7 0.7

0.5

0

1.30.60.4

−0.1

64


012

4

7

10

15

20

25

30


2.5

3.9

3.2

2.2

3.3

2.5

3.8

4.82.8

2.5

3.4 2.9

4.72.3

2.2

3.14.13.22.84.5

3.1

1.61.53

2.6

3.3

3.7

1.4

0.9

2.2

1.2

11.3

2.3

3

2

2.1

3

2

2.32.8

2.4

1.72.3

4.34.53.3

3.1

3.6

2.22.62.6

4.5

9.7

5.2

4.93.4

4.2

4

3.1

2.43.84.8

4.24.4

3.5

4.43.9

3

3.4

5.13.46

5.1

4.94

6

44.43.73.6

7.53.9

5.3

2.75.2

4.26.1

4.9

7.4 3.7

5.45.8

43.53.9 4.7

5.55.9

3.4

5.2

6.7

4.92.4

4

5.6

3.6

5.5

9.3 4.9

4.9

7.6 9.2 6.45.8

4.945.84.9

4.2

8.44.7

3.8

1.9

5.2

3.5

4.4

3.9

1.7

2.4

1.9

2.5 3.1

2.2

2.2

3.62.93.3

2.4

65


012

4

7

10

15

20

25

30


0.5

0

0.5

−0.4

0.8

0.7

1

−0.5

0.2

−0.4−0.8

0

−0.1 −0.2

−1.1−0.2

0.2

−0.4

0.1

0.50.2

−0.2

0.10

0.20.30.1

0.4

0.5

−0.7

0.8

0.3

0.5

0.2

0.3

−0.1

0.50.6

1.1

1.3

0

−0.1

0.6

−0.1

0.6−0.1

−0.3

0.40.3

−0.2−0.5

−0.3

0

0.5

00.20

0.1

3.9

−0.9

−0.7

−0.2

0.6

0.2

0.5

0.60.1−0.1

−1.10.1

−0.4

0.6

0.1

0.4

−0.3

−0.5

−1.8

−0.7

1.2

0.2

−1.40.5

3.21.3

−0.4−1−0.82

−1

−0.6

0.6

2.5

1.8

−0.3

−0.2

−1.3 1.8 3.53

−1.41.1

21.5

−0.4

4.31.8

0.2

0.2

−0.7

0.5

0.7

0.4

0.4

0.6

0.7 0.7

0.5

1.30.60.4

−0.1

0.6

66


012

4

7

10

15

20

25

30


2.8

3.4

2.3

2.5

3.9

3.2

3.5

3.3

3.8

4.82.8

2.5

3.4 2.9

4.72.3

2.2

3.1

4.13.22.8

4.5

3.13

1.61.53

2.6

2.3

3.3

3.7

2.2

1.4

0.9

2.2

1.2

11.3

2.3

3

2

2.1

3

2

2.32.8

2.4

1.72.3

4.34.53.3

3.1

3.6

2.22.62.6

4.5

9.7

5.2

4.93.4

4.2

4

3.1

2.43.84.8

4.2 4.4

3.5

4.4

3.9

3

3.4

5.16

5.1

4.9

5.3

4.9

7.43.7

5.45.8

3.53.9 4.7

5.5

6.7

2.4

4

5.6

3.6

4.9

4.9

7.6 9.2 6.45.8

4.94

5.84.9

4.2

8.44.7

3.8

1.9

5.2

3.5

1.7

2.4

1.9

1.9

2.5 3.1

2.2

3.62.93.3

2.4

2

67



0

10

20

30

40

idate

01.09.2015 − 30.09.2015

mm


0

10

20

30

40

idate

01.10.2015 − 31.10.2015

mm


0

10

20

30

40

idate

01.11.2015 − 30.11.2015

mm

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 06 0 4.3 33.7 6.8 91

AM25: 00+30 0 5.3 41.8 8.2 90

Hirlam8: 00+30 0 5.3 40.6 6.9 91

ECMWF: 00+30 0 5.5 41.5 7.8 91


AM25 − synop 1.1 3.8 4 2.3 13.1 90

Hirlam8 − synop 1 3.6 3.7 2.4 14.2 91

ECMWF − synop 1.2 2.9 3.2 2.2 10.9 91

01.09.2015 − 30.11.2015

TROMSØ

68



0

10

20

30

40

idate

01.09.2015 − 30.09.2015

mm


0

10

20

30

40

idate

01.10.2015 − 31.10.2015

mm


0

10

20

30

40

idate

01.11.2015 − 30.11.2015

mm

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 06 0 5.6 39.5 7.6 91

AM25: 00+30 0 5.2 29 6.4 90

Hirlam8: 00+30 0 5 22.9 5.4 91

ECMWF: 00+30 0 6.6 33.4 7.9 91


AM25 − synop −0.4 4.9 4.9 2.7 30.2 90

Hirlam8 − synop −0.6 5 5 2.6 30.8 91

ECMWF − synop 1 5.8 5.9 3.2 29.6 91

01.09.2015 − 30.11.2015

BODØ

69



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

idate

01.09.2015 − 30.09.2015

mm


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

idate

01.10.2015 − 31.10.2015

mm


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

idate

01.11.2015 − 30.11.2015

mm

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 06 0 3.7 34.1 5.6 90

AM25: 00+30 0 4.2 25.3 5.6 90

Hirlam8: 00+30 0 4.2 31.6 5.5 91

ECMWF: 00+30 0 4.5 31.7 6.6 91


AM25 − synop 0.5 3.5 3.5 2.1 11.8 89

Hirlam8 − synop 0.6 3.4 3.5 2.2 12.3 90

ECMWF − synop 0.9 3.8 3.9 2.1 18.8 90

01.09.2015 − 30.11.2015

ØRLAND

70



0

20

40

60

80

idate

01.09.2015 − 30.09.2015

mm


0

20

40

60

80

idate

01.10.2015 − 31.10.2015

mm


0

20

40

60

80

idate

01.11.2015 − 30.11.2015

mm

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 06 0 7.9 85.2 13.4 91

AM25: 00+30 0 5.9 39.7 9.3 90

Hirlam8: 00+30 0 5.2 31.9 6.8 91

ECMWF: 00+30 0 7.5 45.4 10.9 91


AM25 − synop −2.1 6.2 6.6 2.9 45.5 90

Hirlam8 − synop −2.8 9.6 10 4.3 73.4 91

ECMWF − synop −0.5 6.2 6.3 3 39.8 91

01.09.2015 − 30.11.2015

BERGEN − FLORIDA

71



0

10

20

30

40

idate

01.09.2015 − 30.09.2015

mm


0

10

20

30

40

idate

01.10.2015 − 31.10.2015

mm


0

10

20

30

40

idate

01.11.2015 − 30.11.2015

mm

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 06 0 1.7 34.6 4.7 76

AM25: 00+30 0 3.2 39.7 6.2 90

Hirlam8: 00+30 0 4.3 24.1 5.8 91

ECMWF: 00+30 0 3.6 22.4 5.2 91


AM25 − synop 1.6 3.2 3.6 1.9 14.6 75

Hirlam8 − synop 2.9 4.9 5.7 3.4 21.7 76

ECMWF − synop 2.2 4.2 4.7 2.7 17.4 76

01.09.2015 − 30.11.2015

LÆRDAL

72



0

10

20

30

40

50

idate

01.09.2015 − 30.09.2015

mm


0

10

20

30

40

50

idate

01.10.2015 − 31.10.2015

mm


0

10

20

30

40

50

idate

01.11.2015 − 30.11.2015

mm

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 06 0 3.2 52.9 8.5 91

AM25: 00+30 0 3.1 42.7 7.5 90

Hirlam8: 00+30 0 3 35.5 6.7 91

ECMWF: 00+30 0 3.3 36.1 7.5 91


AM25 − synop −0.2 2.4 2.4 1.1 10.5 90

Hirlam8 − synop −0.2 3.1 3.2 1.3 21.9 91

ECMWF − synop 0 3.6 3.6 1.5 17 91

01.09.2015 − 30.11.2015

GARDERMOEN

73



0

20

40

60

idate

01.09.2015 − 30.09.2015

mm


0

20

40

60

idate

01.10.2015 − 31.10.2015

mm


0

20

40

60

idate

01.11.2015 − 30.11.2015

mm

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 06 0 7.2 76.5 14.5 71

AM25: 00+30 0 5.7 69.2 13.2 90

Hirlam8: 00+30 0 4.4 38.5 7.4 91

ECMWF: 00+30 0 4.8 52.5 9.3 91


AM25 − synop −0.3 6.5 6.6 2.9 32.5 71

Hirlam8 − synop −2 10.4 10.6 4 51 71

ECMWF − synop −1.5 6 6.1 2.6 28.1 71

01.09.2015 − 30.11.2015

NELAUG

74

Documents

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