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Marie-Jolle Zahar Associate Professor, Political Science Research Director, Francophone Research Network on Peace Operations Universit de Montral 2015-04-23 CERIUM Summer School on Peace Operations Slide 2 Relations between human beings and their environment. The geography of conflicts Environment (natural, social, economic, political) Violence 2015-04-23 CERIUM Summer School on Peace Operations Slide 3 The end of the Cold War and its impact on conflicts A decrease in the number of interstate wars An increase in the number of intrastate wars New considerations for research and policy Non-state armed actors Civilians as targets Questions about international responsibility Questions about the limits of the sovereignty principle 2015-04-23 CERIUM Summer School on Peace Operations Slide 4 Philippe Rekacewicz, Le monde diplomatique, January 2000 http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/cartes/conflitsmdv49 2015-04-23 CERIUM Summer School on Peace Operations The main armed conflicts of the 1990s Slide 5 Are certains types of terrains more frequently associated with civil wars? Fearon and Laitin: rough terrain Why? Geography and the challenges of projecting state power- Herbst Geography and the opportunity costs of starting an armed movement 2015-04-23 CERIUM Summer School on Peace Operations Slide 6 http://www.kosovo- mining.org/kosovoweb/en/kosovo/geography/basicContentParagraphs/02/ima ge/about_kosovo_village.jpg 2015-04-23 CERIUM Summer School on Peace Operations Kosovo: A rough terrain Slide 7 Natural resources as a cause of war The greed vs. grievance debate Collier and Hoeffler The old vs. new war debate Kaldor, Berdal and Keen Resources, the nerve of war Resources and recruitment Weinstein Ressurces and military equipment Naylor Resources and spoiling Resources and the ultimate objective of the war - Le Billon Two standard types of considerations: The spatial distribution of resources: diffuse vs. concentrated The distance from the capital/seat of power: proximate vs. distant Four ideal types of resource distributions associated with four different expressions of violence 2015-04-23 CERIUM Summer School on Peace Operations Slide 8 http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/25/world/africa/25diamonds.html 2015-04-23 CERIUM Summer School on Peace Operations Blood diamonds in Sierra Leone Slide 9 Colonialism and borders o States with a legitimacy deficit o Ethnic fractionalization The impact of the Cold War o Alliances with the Great Powers as regime survival strategies The end of the Cold War o The dumping of client states o The sale of small arms and light weapons (SALW) 2015-04-23 CERIUM Summer School on Peace Operations Slide 10 Cartes Le Monde Diplomatique 2015-04-23 CERIUM Summer School on Peace Operations Le colonialisme, la guerre froide et lAfrique Slide 11 Globalisation and civil wars o Globalisation as a spatial phenomenon o Globalisation and the political economy of civil wars transnational trading networks, licit and illicit o Globalisation and the political economy of regime survival deepening inequalities internationally and nationally (Murshed) 2015-04-23 CERIUM Summer School on Peace Operations Slide 12 Understanding the vulnerability of states to conflict 2015-04-23 CERIUM Summer School on Peace Operations Slide 13 Social Indicators Mounting Demographic Pressures Massive Movement of Refugees or Internally Displaced Persons creating Complex Humanitarian Emergencies Legacy of Vengeance-Seeking Group Grievance or Group Paranoia Chronic and Sustained Human Flight Economic Indicators Uneven Economic Development along Group Lines Sharp and/or Severe Economic Decline Political Indicators Criminalization and/or Delegitimization of the State Progressive Deterioration of Public Services Suspension or Arbitrary Application of the Rule of Law and Widespread Violation of Human Rights Security Apparatus Operates as a "State Within a State Rise of Factionalized Elites Intervention of Other States or External Political Actors 2015-04-23 CERIUM Summer School on Peace Operations Slide 14 Risk factors and inevitability State fragility, a highly political process 2015-04-23 CERIUM Summer School on Peace Operations