MARCC2009_BOOK 2nd Publication

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MARCC 2009

2

DDC

551.641Y-594

Copyright © 2010, Ministry of Nature, Environment and Tourism, Mongolia

ISBN 978-99929-934-3-X



MARCC 2009

3

Mongolia Assessment Report on

Climate Change 2009

Second publication with corrections

Review Editors :Dr. Damdin Dagvadorj, MNET, Mongolia

Prof. B.Khuldorj, National University of MongoliaMr. Rogelio Z. Aldover, International Consultant

Lead Authors:D. Dagvadorj; L. Natsagdorj, J.Dorjpurev, B.Namkhainyam

Contributing Authors:P.Gomboluudev, P. Batimaa, D.Jugder, G. Davaa, B.Erdenetsetseg, L.Bayarbaatar,T.Tuvaansuren, V.Ulziisaikhan, B.Bolortsetseg, Sh.Bayasgalan, T.Ganbaatar, S.Khudulmur

Reviewers:Hugh Taskerm, Jinhua Zhang, Anna Stabrawa, Shaohong Wu, Catherine McMullen,Tunnie Srisakulchairak



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This report “ Mongolia Assessment Report on Climate Change 2009” has been publishedby the Ministry of Nature, Environment and Tourism, Mongolia, with technical and financialsupport from the United Nations Environment Programme and with technical assistance fromthe United Nations Development Programme.

Copyright © 2009, Ministry of Nature, Environment and Tourism, Mongolia

Disclaimers

The content and views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP),United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and neither do they imply any endorsement.

The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of UNEP and UNDP concerning the legal status of any country, territory or city or its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of the frontiers or boundaries.

This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part in any form for educational or non- profit services without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. The Ministry of Nature, Environment and Tourism,Mongolia, UNEP and UNDP would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this publication as a source.

No use of this publication may be made for resale or any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from Ministry of Nature, Environment and Tourism, Mongolia, UNEP and UNDP.



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1.1.1.1.2.

2.2.1.

2.1.12.1.2

2.2.2.2.12.2.22.2.32.2.4

3.3.1.

3.1.13.1.23.1.33.1.43.1.53.1.63.1.7

3.2.3.2.1

3.2.23.2.3

3.3.

4.4.1.

4.1.14.1.2

4.2.

4.3.4.4.4.5.

Contents

Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Global Climate Change Perspective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .The Mongolian Context . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Current Climate Change and Projections for the 21 st Century . . . . . . .Global Perspective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Observed Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Climate Change Projection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Climate Change Observation and Research in Mongolia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Climate Systematic Observation Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Climate Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Current Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Climate Change Projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Assessment of Impacts and Vulnerability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Impacts on Biophysical Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Ecosystem Shifts and Landscape Changes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Permafrost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Glaciers and Snow Cover . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Water resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Natural Disaster . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Desertification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Dust and Sand Storms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Impacts on Economic Sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Animal Husbandry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Arable Farming/Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Forestry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Vulnerability and Risk Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Legal Framework of Climate Change Response Measures . . . . . . . . . .National Action Programme on Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Adaptation Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Mitigation Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The Millennium Development Goals-based Comprehensive National DevelopmentStrategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Other Climate Change Policy and Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Institutional Arrangements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Integration Measures with Other Related Programmes and Plans . . . . . . .

71113

232525

2729

29313232343943

5153535658606263656666

686970

73757677

78798081



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83858695

99102102102115129

133

135141142143144145

147

151

153153

155

157159160160161163171177179183189195201208

215221

Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Needs to Adapt to Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Adaptation Options and Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Adaptation Mechanisms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Mitigation Strategies to Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Monitoring Atmospheric GHG . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .GHG Measurements in Mongolia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .National GHG Inventories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Mitigation Options and Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Implementation Possibilities of GHG Mitigation Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Technology Needs Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Technology Needs in Energy Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Technology Needs in Transport Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Technology Needs in Industry Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Technology Needs in Agriculture Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Technology Needs in land Use and Forestry Sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Technology Needs in Waste Management Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Key Conclusions of the Assessment on Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Options for Planning on Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Achieving Goals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Planning Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bibliography and References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Annexes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Annex 2.1 Location of Climate Observation Sites in Mongolia . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Annex 2.2 Grassland Observation Network . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Annex 2.3 Hydrological Observation Network . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Annex 2.4 Geographical Pattern of Temperature and Precipitation Projection .Annex 3.1 Evaluation of Land Surface Changes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Annex 3.2 Permafrost Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Annex 3.3 Glacier and Snow Cover Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Annex 3.4 Water Resources Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Annex 3.5 Natural Disaster Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Annex 3.6 Desertification Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Annex 3.7 Dust and Sand Storms Assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Annex 3.8 Assessing Climate Change Impacts in Animal Husbandry . . . . . . . .Annex 3.9 Assessing Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture / Arable Farming

Annex 3.10 Assessment of Impacts on Forestry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Annex 3.11 Vulnerability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

5.5.1.5.2.5.3.

6.6.1.6.2.6.3.6.4.6.5.

7.

7.1.7.2.7.3.7.4.7.5.7.6.

8.

9.

9.1.9.2.



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Executive Summary

The Mongolia: Assessment Report onClimate Change 2009 (MARCC 2009) bringstogether the findings of climate changeresearch in Mongolia for the first time, to raiseawareness of decision makers and the generalpublic so that they can develop appropriateresponses to the challenges and threats.

Mongolia joined the rest of the world inaddressing the issue of global climate changeaffecting its people and economy by affirming,among others, the United National FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in1993 and its Kyoto Protocol in 1999. TheGovernment of Mongolia has takenconsiderable steps toward the implementationof the UNFCCC, by accomplishing the requiredcommitments such as the Initial NationalCommunication (INC), Technology NeedsAssessment (TNA) and the National ActionPlan on Climate Change (NAPCC) to addressclimate change and other legal commitments.

The impacts of climate change on theecological system and the natural resourcesare real and will dramatically affect almost allsectors of the national economy and humanand animal life and therefore all aspects of thelife support system. Therefore, climate changeresponse measures should address the needto adapt to climate change and to mitigategreenhouse gases (GHG) emissions in order to meet the requirements of the sustainabledevelopment strategies of Mongolia. Climatechange will directly influence achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) of Mongolia.

In the case of Mongolia, its fragileecosystems, pastoral animal husbandry andrainfed agriculture are extremely sensitive toclimate change. As such, Mongolia’s traditionaleconomic sectors and its people’s nomadic wayof life are highly vulnerable to climate change.Mongolia is very sensitive to climate changedue to its geographic location andsocioeconomic condition. As a result of climatechange and variability and the impacts of

climate change, in the last forty years,Mongolian ecosystems have been notablyaltered. These changes have affectedenvironment, desertification, water supply andnatural disasters leading to financial,environmental and human losses.

The Government of Mongolia hasestablished an interagency and intersectoralNational Climate Committee (NCC) led by theMinister for Nature, Environment and Tourismto coordinate and guide national activities andmeasures aimed to adapt to climate changeand to mitigate GHG emissions. The NCCapproves the country’s climate policies andprogrammes, evaluates projects andcontributes to the guidance to these activities.It is directly responsible for implementing thecommitments under the UNFCCC and KyotoProtocol and for managing the nationwideactivities to integrate all climate-change-relatedproblems in various sectors. For operationalrequirements of the programme, a permanent

Climate Change Office (CCO) is planned to beestablished under the supervision of theChairman of the NCC. Mongolia has alsostarted the preparation of the Second NationalCommunication (SNC) to the UNFCCC whichwill be ready for submission early part of nextyear.

In 2006, Mongolia’s net GHG emissionwas 15,628 gigagrams (Gg) in CO 2-equivalent. The energy sector (including

stationary energy, transportation and fugitiveemissions) was the largest source of GHGemissions comprising 65.4% (10,220.09 Gg)of total emissions. The second largest sourceof GHG emissions was the agricultural sector (41.4%). The total CO 2 removal was morethan total CO 2 emissions at 2,083.6 Gg(13.3%) in 2006 due to an increase in thearea of abandoned lands and a reduction innewly cultivated land. Other relatively minor sources currently include emissions fromindustrial processes and the waste sectors.As a whole, this translates to a CO 2

emissions per capita at 6 ton CO 2 equivalent.



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Among the energy sources, coal is themost important fuel in Mongolia. Its share in2005 was 66.3%. Next was petroleum, whichaccounts for 22.7%. Share of hydro and other

renewable energy was only 11%.Based on the projections made during the

preparation of the Initial NationalCommunication by Mongolia regarding futureemissions, by 2020 total emissions will rise bymore than five (5) times over. AlthoughMongolia as a developing country has madeno definitive commitments to reduce GHGemissions, the NAPCC aims to curb theirgrowth.

The abatement scenario of emissionsforesees the introduction and implementationof different options mainly focused on clean coaltechnology, energy saving through energyefficiency measures and promotion ofrenewable energy sources. Previous studiesregarding the energy sector identified a numberof mitigation options. For the energy supplysector, to increase renewable options such ashydropower plants, wind farms and PV andsolar heating; to improve the efficiency ofheating boilers and convert steam boilers intosmall capacity thermal power plants; to improvehousehold stoves and furnaces; to improve coalquality by coal beneficiation and effectivemining technology and to improve power plantsefficiency. For the energy demand sector, themitigation measures include: district heatingand building environment; improve lightingefficiency; improve industry housekeeping and

implement motor efficiency improvements andintroduce energy efficient technologies such asdry-processing for cement industry, etc.

A number of GHG mitigation measures forall GHG relevant sectors with a more significantfocus on the agriculture, livestock and energysectors have been evaluated in terms of variouscriteria, which does not consist only of reductionpotential and cost and benefit, but also thecontribution to reduce poverty and social

acceptability.Research activities will continue to focus on

systematic observation and monitoring of the

climate system, assessment of observedclimate change, development of climatescenarios, vulnerability and risk assessment,potential impacts on ecosystems and society,

and possible measures to adapt to climatechange and mitigate the GHGs emissions atthe national level. Based on suchcomprehensive studies and analyses, theNAPCC should be updated and hence facilitatethe implementation of Mongolia’s strategy andpolicy on climate change.

According to the records from 48meteorological stations which are distributedevenly over the territory of Mongolia, the annual

mean temperature of Mongolia increased by2.14 0C during the last 70 years. However,annual mean temperature decreased in winterseason for the period of 1990-2006. Since1940, average summer temperature has beenincreasing noticeably. Precipitation changes inMongolia can be classified by locations: since1961 in the Altai mountain region, Altai Gobiand in the eastern part of the country hasincreased, and in all other regions has

decreased by 0.1-2.0 mm/year.The future climate scenario for Mongolia

projects changes such as increased airtemperatures, increased precipitation amountin some areas and reduction of water resourcesand arable land. Potential evapotranspirationincrease would be higher than precipitationamount increase. The most vulnerable areasin Mongolia are the agricultural, livestock, landuse, water resources, energy, tourism and

residential sectors. Future climate changes areexpected to negatively impact mostly theagricultural and livestock sectors, which in turnwill affect the society and economy of Mongolia.This is an issue that needs to be taken intoserious consideration.

Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and AdaptationOptions for Key Economic Sectors

Sustainable development depends onclose links between the environment and theeconomy. A significant portion of the economic



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activity has always been based on naturalresources such as pasture, animal husbandry,arable land and water resources. Today,Mongolia not only faces with the same

problems as developing countries caused bythe global climate change, but it also hasspecific concerns which relate to Mongolia’sunique geographical and climatic conditions.For instance, Permafrost covers more than 60per cent of the territory of Mongolia. Melting of permafrost area caused by global warming willhave very adverse effects on agriculturalpractices, water resources and infrastructuredevelopment like bridge and roadconstructions, buildings, etc. In addition, climatechange would seriously affect ecosystem,natural grassland, arable farming, pastureanimal husbandry and soil quality. Therefore,the adaptation problem would be a higher priority concern than the GHG mitigationproblem for Mongolia.

The Way Ahead

Mongolia’s ability to adapt to a changingclimate should be strengthened. Adaptation isan essential investment in Mongolian’scommon future, in making the communitiesmore resilient and in reducing the vulnerabilityto climate change and its adverse impacts. Thiswill continue also to be an investment in theecosystems that sustain Mongolia in the longterm.

The Comprehensive National Development

Strategy of Mongolia approved by the GreatKhural (Parliament) in 2008 is anchored on theMillennium Development Goals (MDGs) anddefines in a comprehensive manner its policyfor the next fourteen years (up to 2021). It aimsat promoting human development in Mongolia,in a humane, civil, and democratic society, andintensively developing the country’s economy,society, science, technology, culture andcivilization in strict compliance with global andregional development trends. The strategyidentified six priority areas of development for Mongolia, of which the Priority Area 5 says that“to create a sustainable environment for

development by promoting capacities and measures on adaptation to climate change,halting imbalances in the country’secosystems and protecting them ”. In

Strategic objective 6 titled “ Promote capacity to adapt to climate change and desertification, to reduce their negativeimpacts ” of this priority area, the climatechange adaptation activities and measureswere identified.

Public awareness is an importantcomponent that is crosscutting the overallNational Communication exercise. Efforts toraise awareness on climate change have

contributed positively to the mainstreamingprocess. This component will also continueto be developed under the SecondCommunication phase that is presently beingprepared. The National Communicationprocess has not only been considered as atool for reporting to the UNFCCC but also for mainstreaming — identifying and integrating— the main directions into the nationalplanning process and programming through

the mobilization of new resources.Due to such efforts, the Mongolia National

Energy Plans and Programmes have alreadyintegrated many findings and outputs fromMongolia’s INC and TNA. The strategy aimsat increasing the security of energy supplythrough optimisation of supply and efficientconsumption while ensuring minimal impactto the environment.

The main components of the energysupply and utilization program of Mongoliawhich are directly or indirectly related to andwould impact on climate change are theenergy supply and utilization programs withfocus on clean coal technologies and energyefficiency. The government also includesmeasures in the non-energy GHG-relatedtechnology programs.

In the frame of the MDG program led byUNDP, Mongolia managed to naturally linkup national energy planning, poverty andclimate change issues. According to theMongolia National Energy Plan being





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Preface

This year’s country report on Mongolia:

Assessment Report on Climate Change(MARCC 2009) is the first attempt to assessand synthesize the findings and results of climate change research and studiesconducted in Mongolia. The Report servesalso as a compendium of scientificbackground and reference documents writtenwith an intention to provide the general publicand researchers with knowledge and latestinformation on climate change and itsconsequences. The Report also aims toassist decision makers in governmentorganizations, the public and private sectorsin formulating and implementing appropriateresponses to the challenges and threatsposed by the global climate change.

The scope of the MARCC includesinformation and inputs from various relevantreports and reference materials conductedand written since the 1990s in Mongolia. Thecontent of this Report include the following:

Observed changes in climate of Mongoliaand its future projections

Potential impacts of climate change onnatural and ecological components, andsocial and economic sectors of Mongolia

Vulnerability and Adaptation to climatechange

Greenhouse gas monitoring and

inventoriesGreenhouse gas mitigation potentials andoptions

Climate-friendly technology needs

The development of the MARCC wascarried out by the leading practitioners and

authors based on the reports and papers

submitted by the contributors from differentfields and sectors.

A special note of appreciation andgratitude is extended to the Lead Authors:D.Dagvadorj, L. Natsagdorj, J.Dorjpurev,B.Namkhainyam, who prepared this Reportand to the researchers and experts:P.Gomboluudev, P. Batimaa, G. Davaa,D.Jugder, B.Bolortsetseg, T.Ganbaatar,D.Jugder, B.Erdenetsetseg, Sh.Bayasgalan,

T.Tuvaansuren, S.Khudulmur, who madevaluable contribution to the chapters onspecific issue areas and without their generous time and efforts, the Report couldsimply not have been produced.

Great appreciation is extended toDr.Damdin Dagvadorj, the UNFCC FocalPoint & Director-General of the Departmentof Information, Monitoring and Evaluation of the Ministry of Nature, Environment and

Tourism, Prof. B.Khuldorj, National Universityof Mongolia, who together acted as theReview Editors, for their great efforts inintegrating, reviewing and finalizing theReport. Great appreciation is also extendedto Ms.Anna Stabrawa, Mr.Jinhua Zhang andMs.Tunnie Srisakulchairak of UNEP, as wellas Dr.Shaohong Wu and Ms.CatherineMcMullen for their participation in the reviewprocess and valuable comments.

Also expressed is the sincere gratitudeto the UNEP Regional Office for Asia and thePacific, who provided technical assistance andfinancial support, and Mr.Rogelio Z.Aldover,the International Consultant, and the UNDPMongolia Country Office, for their technicalassistance in the review and preparation of the Report.



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Acronyms and Abbreviations

CDM

CGE

COP

DNA

FNC

GEF

GHG

IPCC

LEAP

LUCF

MDGsNAPCC

NCSP

NES

NGOs

SNC

TNA

UNDP

UNEP

UNFCCC

Clean Development MechanismConsultative Group of Experts

Conference of Parties

Designated National Authority

First National Communication

Global Environment Facility

Greenhouse Gases

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning

Land Use Change and Forestry

Millennium Development GoalsNational Action Plan for Climate Change

National Communication Support Programme

National Energy Strategy

Non-governmental Organisations

Second National Communication

Technology Needs Assessment

United Nations Development Programme

United Nations Environment Programme

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change





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Change on 22 September 2009 at the UNHeadquarters.

We are confident that the global and sub-regional efforts and dialogues will present anexcellent opportunity for the policy and decisionmakers to gain common understanding of thethreats imposed by climate change and to reacha political consensus.

The Mongolia: Assessment Report onClimate Change 2009 (MARCC 2009) bringstogether the findings of climate change researchin Mongolia for the first time, to raise awarenessof decision makers and the general public sothat they can develop appropriate responses tothe challenges and threats.

On behalf of the Government of Mongoliaand on my behalf, I would like to thank UNEPregional team in Asia and the Pacific for both

technical and financial assistance in preparingthis report and the UNDP Mongolia office fortheir technical assistance in the peer review ofthe report. Special acknowledgements and

thanks are given to Mongolia team for all theefforts in preparing this valuable report. It is myhope that the Report would be a usefulcomprehensive source document for decision-makers and all levels of society in Mongolia.

Luimed Gansukh

Member of the Great Khural (Parliament)& Minister for Nature, Environment andTourism of Mongolia



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The United Nations EnvironmentProgramme (UNEP) is mandated to regularlyassess major environmental developmentsand trends. This is implemented through theGlobal Environment Outlook (GEO) processwith global, regional, sub-regional, nationaland city-level assessments. The GEO processis participatory and consultative, with capacitybuilding at its core. The result is scientificallyauthoritative information for environmentalmanagement and policy development tailored

to a wide target audience.The Mongolia: Assessment Report on

Climate Change 2009 (MARCC 2009) is oneof the outputs of this capacity buildingprogramme, and the first UNEP endeavour inpartnership with a national government toassess climate change impacts, supportdecision makers in understanding the needfor urgent action, and mobilize publicawareness and participation in climate change

mitigation and adaptation.Mongolia’s economy has traditionally been

based on agriculture and the breeding of livestock. The Mongoli:a Assessment Report on Climate Change 2009 reveals that thecountry is already experiencing the impactsof climate change, which may underminethese economic activities. Mongolia’sterrestrial ecosystems have been changingover the last two decades. Significantdecreases in surface water, grassland andforest areas have been observed, by 19%, 7%and 26%, respectively, and barren land

(without grass) has almost tripled, from 52thousand square kilometers to 149 thousandsquare kilometers, almost 10% of the total landarea. The size of the snowcap on major mountains has been reduced by 30 percentas compared with that in the 1940s. Theincrease in frequency of heavy rain has led toa twofold increase in climate related disasters,including flashfloods, with high social andeconomic costs.

The report further reveals that changes inclimate and land conditions have significantlyaffected livestock productivity and relatedeconomic sectors. Over the last two decadessheep, goat and cattle shearing times haveshifted ahead by about a week due to theclimate change.Therefore, for Mongolia andsimilar countries, adaptation to climate changeremains the most urgent priority. TheMongolia: Assessment Report on ClimateChange 2009 sets out a number of adaptationoptions, including the need for new

pastureland management and livestockproduction systems, and early warningsystems for extreme weather events toprevent related disasters.

UNEP’s Medium Term Strategy (2010-2013) directs the organization to strengthenthe ability of countries to integrate climatechange responses into their nationaldevelopment processes, based on scientificinformation and local climate data. I believe

this report fulfils this mandate and providesvaluable information and options to helpMongolia to sustain the quality of life andlivelihoods of the country’s residents.

Achim Steiner

United Nations Under-Secretary Generaland Executive Director, United NationsEnvironment Programme

Foreword



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LIST OF TABLESMAIN REPORT

Table 2.1Table 2.2Table 2.3Table 2.4Table 2.5Table 2.6Table 2.7Table 3.1Table 3.2

Table 3.3a

Table 3.3b

Table 3.4Table 3.5Table 3.6Table 3.7Table 3.8

Table 6.1Table 6.2Table 6.3Table 6.4Table 6.5Table 6.6Table 6.7Table 6.8Table 6.9Table 6.10Table 6.11Table 6.12

Table 6.13Table 6.14Table 6.15Table 6.16Table 6.17Table 6.18Table 6.19Table 6.20Table 6.21Table 6.22

Table 6.23Table 6.24Table 7.1

International Solar Radiation Network StationsCoefficient Results of Linear Equation of Mean Temperature of Different SeasonsCoefficient Results of Linear Equation of Total Precipitation of Different SeasonsClimate Extremes IndicesChange Trend of Climate Extremes IndicesEvaluations of Climate ModelsFuture Climate Change Projected by Hadley Center Model HadCM3Change in the Percentage of Natural Zones when Temperature and Precipitation Amount ChangeLand Coverage Area that is below or above an Annual Average Temperature of 0 0 C as itis Calculated using HADCM3Percentage of Land where the Air Temperature is less than -10 0 C of Daily Average

Temperature Calculated by HADCM3 Model Using SRES A2 ScenarioPercentage of Land where the Air Temperature is less than -10 0 C of Daily AverageTemperature Calculated by HADCM3 Model Using SRES B2 ScenarioVertical distribution of change in air temperatureDefinition of Three Types of Dust EventsForecast of conditions of sheep pasture by HADCM3 model (%)Correlation of Adult Livestock Mortality and Meteorological FactorsAssessment of the Future Trend of Heavy Snowfalls by Comparing Results of the zudIndex to those of Perishing of Bigger CattleTotal Primary Energy Mix in 2005CO

2emissions from solid fuel combustion

CO 2 emissions from liquid, solid and biomass fuel combustionTotal CO 2, CH 4 and N 2O emissions in CO 2-eqNOX, CO, NMVOC and SO 2 emissions from the energy sectorGreenhouse gas emissions from cement productionCO 2 emissions from lime manufacturing for the period 1990-2006Country specific emission factors for cattleMethane emissions from enteric fermentation for cattleCountry Specific Emission Factors for Livestock Except CattleGHG emissions from the agricultural sectorCO 2 Emissions from Changes in Forestry and other Woody Biomass Stocks

GHG Emissions from Changes in Land Use and ForestryTotal Municipal Solid Waste Generated in the Cities (by urban population)Methane Emissions from WasteMain GHG by sectors in 1990, 2000 and 2006Total CO 2-eq emissions by sector for 1990 and 2006Per capita GHG enissions in CO 2-eqBrief Description of the Studies on Greenhouse Gas MitigationCoal resources of Northeast Asia CountriesMitigation Costs and Mitigation Potential for each GHG Abatement OptionsCO 2 Mitigation Potential for Selected Options in Industry Sector

Summary of Hydropower CDM projects in MongoliaSummary of Energy Efficiency CDM projects in MongoliaSpecific Fuel Consumption for Electricity Generation for CHP



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ANNEX

Table A3.1.1Table A3.1.2

Table A3.1.3

Table A3.1.4

Table A3.1.5Table A3.2.1

Table A3.2.2

Table A3.2.3

Table A3.2.4

Table A3.2.5

Table A3.5.1Table A3.5.2Table A3.5.3Table A3.8.1

Table A3.82.

Table A3.8.3

Table A3.8.4Table A3.8.5Table A3.8.6Table A3.9.1Table A3.9.2Table A3.9.3Table A3.9.4

Table A3.9.5.Table A3.9.6.Table A3.9.7.Table A3.9.8.Table A3.9.9.

Table A3.10.3Table A3.11.1Table A3.11.2

Land Surface Change (sq. km)Percentage of Vegetation Zones

Change in the Percentage of Natural Zones when Temperature and PrecipitationAmount ChangeChange in the Percentage of Natural Zones when Temperature and Amount of Precipitation Both ChangePercentage of Vegetation ZonesCorrelation between the Permafrost in Mongolia and Ratio of Multiyear TemperatureAverage of the Coldest and Warmest Months of the Year in MongoliaGeneral Distribution of Permafrost Calculated Using the Ratio of the Temperature of the Coldest and Warmest Months of the Year General Distribution of Permafrost Calculated using the Ratio of the Temperature of

the Coldest and Warmest Months of the Year General Distribution of Permafrost Calculated using the Ratio of the Temperature of the coldest and Warmest Months of the Year using ECHAM model,Change in the Percentage of Natural Zones when Temperature and Amount of Precipitation both ChangeFuture trend of drought indices using HADCM3 modelFuture Trend of Winter Index as Calculated by HADCM3 ModelFuture trend of dzud index calculated by HADCM3 modelMongolian sheep live-weight changes on variable air temrature and pasture biomassconditionSheep Weight Changes in Summer with Changed Temperature by 4 o C and PastureBiomassSheep Weight Changes in Summer with changed temperature by 5 o C and pasturebiomassForecast condtions of sheep graze pasturing by ECHAM modelFuture projected changes of sheep pasture condition by CSIRO model resultsForecast on sheep pasture winter condition estimated by HADCM3 model resultsTotal area planted with cultural plants and crops, and harvestsRatio between demand and supply of the wheat in 2001-2006 (October - September)Domestic harvesting of potatoes, vegetables and fruits, and their importAverage yearly food consumption per one consumer

Daily calories per one consumer Location of stations and measurements takenCoefficient of Changes in Timing of Wheat GrowthCumulative temperature at the time of each stageCoefficient of correlation between the time span of each stage of wheat growth andcumulative favourable air temperatureCurrent Forest Biomass and Increased CO 2 Biomass (mean amount doubledDevelopment of Animal Husbandry Sector Correlation Matrix of Adult Livestock Fall and Meteorological Conditions



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LIST OF FIGURESMAIN REPORT

Figure 1.1

Figure 1.2

Figure 2.1Figure 2.2Figure 2.3Figure 2.4Figure 2.5Figure 2.6Figure 2.7Figure 2.8

Figure 2.9Figure 2.10

Figure 2.11Figure 2.12Figure 2.13Figure 2.14

Figure 2.15Figure 2.16Figure 2.17

Figure 2.18

Figure 2.19

Figure 2.20

Figure 2.21

Figure 2.22

Figure 3.1Figure 3.2Figure 3.3Figure 3.4Figure 3.5Figure 3.6Figure 3.7Figure 3.8Figure 3.9Figure 3.10Figure 3.11Figure 3.12

Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide

Observed changes in (a) global average surface temperature, (b) global average sealevel from tide gauge (blue)Solid lines are multi-model global averages of surface warmingAnnual Mean Air Temperature MapMap of Mean Temperature in WinterMap of Mean Temperature in SummerGeographical Distribution of Annual Total PrecipitationGeographical Distribution of Summer PrecipitationGeographical Distribution of Dust Storms in MongoliaAverage Winter Temperature Trend for the Period 1940-2005

Average. Summer temperature trend for the Period 1940-2005Statistics Persuasive of Coefficient Equation of Number of Hot Days(in bright color if more than 95%- reliable)Warm Season Precipitation TrendCoefficient of Linear Trend Equation of Warm Season Precipitation ChangeNatural Disasters Related with Atmospheric ConvectionCorrelations between changes in numbers of days with extreme maximum andminimum temperatures with 90 and 10 percentiles at selected stations.Trends of Number Warm (a) and Cold (b) Days with 90 and 10 PercentilesObserved (1850-2000) and Future CO 2 Concentration in the AtmosphereGeographical Distributions of 1971-1999 Mean Climate Represented by ReanalysisData and Model Simulationa) Winter and b) Summer Temperature Change Trends of Mongolia according toEstimation of A1B, GHG Emission Scenarios, 0C, 2000-2099a) Winter and b) Summer Precipitation Change Trends of Mongolia according toEstimation of A1B, GHG Emission Scenarios, 0C, 2000-2099a) Annual mean temperature and b) Annual total precipitation time series estimated byHadCM3 model, 1900-2099a) Winter Mean Temperature and b) Winter Precipitation Time Series estimated byHadCM3 model, 1900-2099a) Summer Mean Temperature and b) Summer Precipitation Time series estimated by

HadCM3 model, 1900-2099Land Surface Image in 1992Land Surface Image in 2002Distribution of various types of permafrost in Mongolia, 1968-1970Solifluction Formed next to the Khangai Mountains (August 2003)Multiyear Information on Mongolian Surface Water ResourceMultiyear Tendency of Atmoshperic-Convection-Related Natural DisastersDispersion of Desertification in MongoliaGeographical Distribution of number of days with Dust StormGeographical Distribution of number of days with Drifting Dust StormProjected Changes in Grazing Condition due to Climate ChangeSpring Wheat Harvesting Rate Fluctuation for Many YearsRatio between Harvests and number of Days on July with air Temperature warmer than+ 26 0 C



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Figure 3.13Figure 3.14Figure 3.15Figure 6.1

Figure 6.2Figure 6.3Figure 6.4Figure 6.5Figure 6.6Figure 6.7Figure 6.8Figure 6.9Figure 6.10Figure 6.11Figure 6.12Figure 6.13Figure 6.14Figure 7.1Figure 7.2Figure 7.3Figure.7.4Figure 7.5.

Possible Agricultural Regions may be affected by Climate ChangeComparison of the rates of perishing cattle stocks to all other animal stocksLands Vulnerable to both Drought and Heavy SnowfallsResults of CO 2 measurements of air trapped in ice cores taken at the Law Dome site

in Antarctica, along with present day measurementsLong term Changes of Major GHGs Measured in MongoliaGeographical Distribution of CO 2 Concentration at Global and Mongolia levelsCO 2 Emissions in the Energy Sector by Fuel TypeCO 2 Emissions from Changes in Forestry and other Woody Biomass StocksTrend of Methane Emissions from the Waste Sector Total GHG Emissions in CO 2-eq by gases for the period 1990-2006Total GHG Emissions in CO 2-eq by gases in 1990 and 2006Indirect GHG Emissions for the period 1990-2006Contribution to Total CO 2-eq Emissions by Sector for 1990 and 2006Map of Hydro Energy Resources in MongoliaMap of Wind Energy Resources in MongoliaMap of Solar Energy Resources in MongoliaCoal Resource Map of MongoliaComposition of Heat Losses from Overall Fuel BurningStructure of Electricity Distribution SystemStructure of Heat Distribution SystemHeat Distribution StructureVehicle Categories by Utilized Year

ANNEX

Figure A2.1.1Figure A2.1.2Figure A2.1.3Figure A2.2.1Figure A2.3.1Figure A2.4.1(a)Figure A2.4.1(b)Figure A2.4.2 (a)Figure A2.4.2 (b)Figure A3.1.1Figure A3.1.2Figure A3.1.3Figure A3.1.4Figure A3.1.5Figure A3.1.6

Figure A3.1.7Figure A3.1.8Figure A3.1.9

Figure A3.1.10Figure A3.1.11Figure A3.1.12

Location of the Soil and Weather Observer StationsLocation of the WMO’s Basic Synoptic StationsLocation of the Weather Observation Posts at the Soum LevelLocation of the Pasture Land Plant Observation PointsLocation of Hydrological Observation SitesWinter Air Temperature Change, 0CSummer Air Temperature Change, 0CWinter Precipitation Change, %Summer Precipitation Change, %Land Surface Image in 1992Land Surface Image in 2002Land surface image in 2006Mongolian Ecological ZonesBiological ProductChange in the Percentage of Vegetation Zones when the Amount of PrecipitationChangesChange in the Percentage of Vegetation Zones when the Temperature ChangesNPP, C h/m 2 in SRES A2 ScenarioNPP, C h/m 2 in SRES B2 scenario.

Map of natural zones and degree of dryness spreadDegree of dryness in SRES A2 scenario.Degree of dryness in SRES B2 scenario



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Figure A3.2.1Figure A3.2.2

Figure A3.3.1

Figure A3.3.2a

Figure A3.32b

Figure A3.4.1

Figure A3.5.1Figure A3.5.2Figure A3.5.3Figure A3.6.1Figure A3.6.2

Figure A3.6.3

Figure A3.6.4Figure A3.6.5Figure A3.6.6aFigure A3.6.6bFigure A3.7.1Figure A3.7.2Figure A3.7.3Figure A3.7.4Figure A3.7.4Figure A3.7.5Figure A3.7.6Figure A3.7.7Figure A3.7.8Figure A3.7.9Figure A3.8.1

Figure A3.8.2Figure A3.8.3Figure A3.8.4Figure A3.8.5Figure A3.9.1Figure A3.9.2Figure A3.10.1Figure A3.10.2Figure A3.10.3Figure A3.10.4Figure A3.11.1Figure A3.11.2

Permafrost Index, 1961-1990The Ratio of Multiyear Temperature Average of the Coldest and Warmest Months ofthe Year in MongoliaThe General Image of Tsambagarav Mountain and the Locations of Meteorological

Observation PointsChanges in Borderline of 0 0 C that has been Calculated by HadCM3 Model usingSRES A2 ScenarioChanges in Borderline of 0 0 C that has been Calculated by HadCM3 Model usingSRES B2 Scenario.Change in the Beginning Date and the Continuity Period of the Tuul River’s SummerFlood (P. Batima, 2005)Multiyear Tendency of Atmoshperic-Convection-Related Natural DisastersMultiyear Average Winter Iin Mongolia (Swin)A Multiyear Trend of the Average Zud index of Mongolia (Szud)Dispersion of Desertification in Mongolia (A.Khaulenbek 2007)Historical Data Records on Precipitation and Evaporation at the Tsetserleg MeteoStationEqualization Coefficient for Right Angle of Historical Line Trend on Differencesbetween Cumulative Surface Evaporation and Precipitationa) 10 days interval in Aug, 1982, b) 10 days interval in Aug, 2005Historical Average Mean of RSDI estimated by Satellite Data (M. Bayarsgalan 2005)Land surface model / classification of vegetation coverLand Cover Model /Classification of Vegetation Cover, updatedGeographical distribution of number of days with dust stormGeographical Distribution of number of days with drifting dust stormGeographical Distribution of Number of Dusty DaysGeographical Disptribution of Number of Days with Dust Storm in Central AsiaGeographical Disptribution of Number of Days with Dust Storm in Central AsiaWind Index of Soil ErosionAverage Duration of Wind Velocity with 8 m/s or higherPM10 concentration in Zamiin uud on 25-28, May 2008Results of Lidar Observation in Zamiin uud, 24-29, May 2008Historical Records of Annual Dust Blowing DaysSnowfall influence to graze pasturing of baby sheeps in forest-steppe zone / inadequate condition has indicated above the curve

Observed Changes in Sheep WeightSheep wool output changes. Source: G.Tuvaasuren, 2002Climate Change Impacts on Sheep Graze on Pasture ConditionClimate Change Impacts on Sheep Graze PastureMain Locations of Agricultural Land RegionsSpring Wheat Harvesting Rate Fluctuation for Many YearsForest Cover of MongoliaForest and Steppe Fire Distribution (1996-2001)Forest and Steppe Fire FrequencyBiomass of the Selected Tree TypesCorrelation between Dzud Index and Adult Livestock MortalityDependence (R) between affected perishing horses and camels N) and heavysnowfalls



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Figure A3.11.3

Figure A3.11.4

Dependence (R) between affected perishing cattle ( N) and heavy snowfallsindex SStocks of Cattle and Goats within a Herd



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MONGOLIA: ASSESSMENT REPORTON CLIMATE CHANGE 2009

1. Introduction

1. Introduction

1.1. Global Climate Change Perspective

The continuing and ever increasingemission of greenhouse gasses (GHG),which are mainly carbon dioxide (CO 2),methane (CH 4) and nitrous oxide (N 2O),envelop the earth like an invisible blanket thattraps the heat of the sun, causes heat buildup and therefore, poses a very serious threatto mankind that he has ever imagined to bereal. These gases are basically induced byhuman activity. No country, big or small, canlive in isolation because of shared causesand effects.

A predicted increase in temperature of upto 3 oC before the end of this Century is justpart of the concern. The scientific communitythinks that the current changes in climatebeing manifested already could even worsenat a continuing progression, with higher intensity and frequency, of the variations inthe world’s climate system.

The issue becomes a global one and soare the solutions to adapt to the change or mitigate the root causes that brought in thisclimate change phenomenon. Approachesand effects differ from country to country. Inthis connection, each country, includingMongolia, signed international covenants toaddress the issue as a big community. Failureto respond adequately, individually andcollectively, will hamper the efforts to reducepoverty, hunger and diseases and the accessto basic services in any particular country.

The recent report of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007)manifests that the change is real from theincreases observed around the world, bothin air and water temperatures.

1.2. The Mongolian Context

Mongolia is situated in the central part of the Asiatic continent. The country is boundedon the north by Russia and on the east, south,and west by China. It has a total area of 1,565,000 sq. km. It is the 19 th largest countryin terms of area in the world. It is also one of the largest mainland countries with no accessto sea.

The topography of Mongolia consistsmainly of a vast plateau with the elevationranging from 914 to 1,524 meters (m) brokenby mountain ranges in the north and west. TheAltai Mountain in the southwest rises toheights of 4,267 m above the sea. Mongoliais very vulnerable to immensely changingweather conditions which are exacerbated bythe landlocked geography, dispersed andsparse population and harsh temperateclimate.

The signs of climate change are alreadyevident in Mongolia as in any other countryin the world, but with some unique situationswhich also made the climate change approachslightly different. The government and thepeople need to sustain their joint efforts infacing the challenges that pose ahead, todetermine the vulnerabilities, to prepare toadapt to changes and to help curb the causesthrough every means possible.

The Government of Mongolia ratified theKyoto Protocol in 1999 following the UnitedNations Framework Convention on ClimateChange (UNFCCC) which was adopted in theEarth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992.Hence, Mongolia has been involved in climatechange activities for about a decade. After the First National Communication was



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1. Introduction

submitted by the government, a nationalstrategy for the climate change program hasbeen developed.

In this context and status of relatedactivities and initiatives, an assessment wasdone by a national team, for which this report,the Mongolia Assessment Report on ClimateChange (MARCC), is prepared. The MARCCprimarily includes, therefore, the following withregards to the situation, progress anddirections of climate change activities in thecountry:

Global and national climate changeperspectives

Current changes and projections

Impact assessments

Legal and institutional arrangements

Adaptation and mitigation strategies

This Report gives a detailed descriptionof observed changes in climate factors andvariables and the possible causes of thechange, It also gives the projection of future

climate change trends possibly influenced byhuman activities in this century. It alsoprovides climatic scenarios for climate changeimpact research in the different sectors of theMongolian economy. The report has becomelonger than the usual assessment report as aresult of voluminous inputs from differentrelevant agencies and groups especially onthe aspect of scientific methodologies andanalysis of impacts. Hence, the Reportprovides a comprehensive source ofinformation also for the government andinterested parties in establishing strategicplans for adaptation and mitigation responsesas well as the key conclusions and optionsfor planning on climate change seen in theReport.





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2.1.2. Climate Change Projection

Continued greenhouse gas emissions ator above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in theglobal climate system during the 21 st centurythat would be larger than those observedduring the 20 th century.

Advances in climate change modellingnow enable best estimates and likely assessed uncertainty ranges to be given for projected warming for different emissionscenarios. Projected global average surfacewarming for the end of the 21 st century (2090–2099) relative to 1980–1999 are estimated for six Special Report Emission Scenarios(SRES) emissions marker scenarios. For example, the best estimate for the lowscenario (B1) is 1.8°C, and the best estimatefor the high scenario (A1FI) is 4.0°C.

For the next two decades, a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected for arange of SRES emission scenarios. Modelexperiments show that even if all radiative

forcing agents were held constant at year 2000levels, a further warming trend would occur inthe next two decades at a rate of about 0.1°Cper decade, due mainly to the slow responseof the oceans. About twice as much warming(0.2°C per decade) would be expected if emissions are within the range of the SRESscenarios. Best-estimate projections frommodels indicate that decadal averagewarming over each inhabited continent by2030 is insensitive to the choice among SRESscenarios and is very likely to be at least twiceas large as the corresponding model-estimated natural variability during the 20thcentury.

Figure 2.1 Solid linesare multi-model globalaverages of surfacewarming (relative to 1980–

1999) for the scenarios A2,A1B and B1, shown ascontinuations of the 20thcentury simulations. Theorange line is for theexperiment whereconcentrations were heldconstant at year 2000values. The grey bars atright indicate the best

estimate (solid line withineach bar) and the likelyrange assessed for the sixSRES marker scenarios.The assessment of thebest estimate and likelyranges in the grey barsincludes the AOGCMs inthe left part of the figure,as well as results from ahierarchy of independentmodels and observationalconstraints.

2. Current Climate Change and Projections for the 21 st Century



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2.2. Climate ChangeObservation and Research inMongolia

2.2.1. Climate Systematic Observation Networks

Currently, 120 operational weather stationsin Mongolia are working according to theWorld Meteorological Organization’sguidelines and procedures, monitoring andmeasuring the air pressure, atmosphere andsoil temperatures, air humidity, rainfall, windvelocities, snowfall, depth (when snow) andother weather phenomena for 8 times a day.

Around 40 stations monitor soiltemperature in depths of 20 - 320 cm, 25weather stations record precipitation amountand 32 weather stations used to estimate thesunshine durations. (Please see relatedFigure A2.1.1 in Annex 2.1 ). At present, only5 soil stations are operational.

introduced and all the observations are beingdone using the Greenwich Mean Time (GMT)since then.

There are 40 weather stations of Mongoliathat are included in the World MeteorologicalOrganization’s (WMO) synoptic network basestations and 10 stations are included in theClimate Observation base station list. (Pleasesee related Figure A2.1.2 in Annex 2.1 )

Each Soum (the smallest administrativeunit of government in Mongolia) has a weatherpost that measures temperatures ofatmosphere and soil, moisture, wind,atmosphere occurrence 3 times a day at 00,06, 12 GMT. ( Figure A2.1.3 in Annex 2.1 ).


Early Weather Monitoring

According to the historical documents of Mongolia, the first weather station in Mongolia was installed in 1869 and operated for about 20 years during years of 1869-1875 and 1889-1909. There are also evidences that they have established a weather station and made observations from March 1879 to September 1880 in Uliastai City and from August 1895 until June 1897 in Khovd City. Information and data obtained were studied and included in the databases which were continued even today. Some materials are published in Irkutsk geo-physics chronicles on an annual basis.

Weather stations have monitored theweather according to the average local timeand synoptic observations every 3 hours for

a whole day between 1936 and 1975. AfterJanuary 1, 1975, the new international codefor weather information exchange was

Historical Notes on Reporting

Famous Russian traveller,N.M.Prejvalskii, has noted that “Mongols have an extraordinary ability to forecast strong winds, storms, rains and they can find their lost horses and camels with ahelp of tiny signs and symptoms” [1]. First

historical document about climate is dated back to 72 BC. This information is related to the Hun dynasty which was a great dynasty and lived in the soils of Mongolia.They have documented the first written notes about climate and weather in ancient Chinese scripts – “Snow fall in asingle day has reached higher than two adults, which caused many people and livestock to be frozen to death. One out

of ten did not come back”.Nomads of Mongolia have established

a whole system of lifestyle based on their knowledge and tradition of weather forecast. They would calculate the weather, livestock and pasture lands.

Since the 1990s, the number of theweather observation posts has been

decreasing continuously due to the policy toupgrade and expand the posts to weatherstations.



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Solar Radiation Network

The solar radiation observation network inMongolia was established in 1961. Since the1970s until 2004-2005, Mongolia had 19points to measure solar direct and indirectradiation, long and short wave radiationbalance and apparatus to measure surfacealbedo. Currently, there are 5 operationalstations in Mongolia which are included inWorld Meteorological Organization’sactinometer network as seen in Table 2.1below.


Upper Air Observation Network

The aerologic observation in Mongoliastarted in 1941. Currently, there are 7

aerologic stations; however, with the financialdifficulties the partial observations are beingconducted only in Ulaanbaatar, Murun andUlaangom stations.

Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Station

Mongolia established jointly with theNational Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministration of USA the first observation sitein Central Asia for monitoring the atmospheric

greenhouse gas concentrations in Ulaan Uul,Dornogovi aimag (the regional administrativelevel of organization comprising a number of soums ) in 1992. The observation data arebeing archived in world greenhouse gasdatabase in Tokyo Centre, Japan.

Agrometeorological observation network

The weather stations and posts (consistingof 39 units) in the agricultural part of Mongoliaobserve on phenology phases, heights,density, thickness, damage rates, causes andharvest of grains, potatoes and vegetables.In some areas, precipitation, quality and other

observations: a). Pasture plant phenology; b).Pasture major insects that damage pasturelands, small mammals; and c). Pasturedegradation and desertification.

a. Pasture plant phenology observationincludes:

- Plant growth and development period,Plants height, Growth rate (qualitymeasurements, green plants and grayland growth rate, etc., Plants damage,Harvest, Migrations and movements of animals, etc.

The observation is done in Spring duringsprouting stage and in Fall, in the normalunfenced pasture land. The observationis done on every 9th, 19th, 25th day of themonth.

b. Pastureland damage measurement fromvoles (Microtus brandtii) and insects(grasshoppers) is done on 9th, 19th, 25thday of every month. As a result, theobservation and surveys show pastureland

damages, density of voles and insects andtheir influence to the plants as well as areaof degradation and damages.

Table 2.1. International Solar Radiation Network Stations

NameUlaangomMurunUliastaiUlaanbaatar Dalanzadgad

Index212231272292373

Latitude49.9749.6547.7347.9243.58

Longitude92.07100.1596.85106.87104.42

Elevation9401285176113071465

measurements (e.g. weight of 1000 seeds) arecarefully being observed.

Grassland Observation Network

Since the 1960s, the observation andmeasurement on pasture lands have beendone through the National Meteorological andHydrological Services monitoring anddiagnostics network stations and posts in 317points (Please see related Figure A2.2.1 inAnnex 2.2. ) The pasture land observation ismonitored since 2001 through three types of



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c. Pasture thorough survey method isimportant for pastureland management,and gathering of important informationsuch as pastureland status in winter-spring

and summer-fall periods as well aspastureland capacity and degradationlevel. There are two kinds of pasturethorough survey method – the constantand periodic survey methods. The winter-fall assessment on the pastureland isconducted in the 2 nd week of August byobservation and survey on pasturelandgrowth, types of livestock in the Sum, andnumber of livestock.

Animal Husbandry Meteorological Observation

Surveys on influence of the environmenton livestock organisms were carried out inmore than 10 Soums with different climateconditions between 1976 and the 1990s. Asimilar survey was done in 3 areas of Gobi,grassland steppes and forest on cattle, sheepand goats. The survey includes:

- Behaviour- Body mass and feed mass- Micro climate of fence or farm- Sickness, loss and their causes, etc.

Observation on Soil Moisture

The moisture measurement in pasturelandand farmland is measured at 64 sites every10 days before plantation. Soil moisture is alsobeing measured in 135 sites during frost andthawing periods.

Surface Water Monitoring Network

The surface water monitoring is done bythe Mongolian National Water WeatherAuthority. The hydrometer observations onMongolian rivers and streams have been donesince 1942. At present, 126 observation pointsare measuring the daily water level, passingthrough, ice occurrence, ice thickness, flowspeed and water temperature. A number of

observation points collect samples for furtheranalyses. Observations are done in other 16small and big lakes. (Please see relatedFigure A2.3.1 in Annex 2.3 ).

In addition water plankton, benthosorganisms and plants samples are collectedin 64 observation points. In addition, waterchemistry research samples are collected in

more than 140 points.Satellite Observation System

Since 1970, Mongolia has receivedinformation and images from the Polar orbitsatellite which is an analogue system. A digitalinformation station was installed during 1986-1988. The Arc/INFO GIS package on SunSparc Workstation was installed in 1994.Cooperation agreement with NASA wassigned in 1993 to use satellite SEASTAR. Withthe satellite-aided observation, the monitoringof forest fires and bushfires became possible.Since 2007, Mongolia has been receivingsatellite images from MODIS which increasedmonitoring quality significantly.

2.2.2. Climate Research

Brief Overview of Climate Change Studies

Russian scientists have been interested inMongolian climate change issues sincebegining of 20th century. However, there areissues on the time frame. For example,according to the detailed paleo-geographicstudy in Mongolia conducted by B.M Sinits,drought increased in Mongolia due toincreased elevation of mountains and highlands. It is common in Central Asia that ancientcities and river beds are buried by sand, which

suggests that this region experienced droughthistorically.. The theory that was suggestedby G.E Grumm-Grijailo and his followers (H.BPavlov, B. A. Smirnov) about evolution ofplants and the salt and other chemicalchanges in some of the great lakes are basedon histrorical time period. Famousmeteorologist, L.S. Berg, and botanist, A.A.Yunatov, said Mongolian weather has notbecame dryer during those times.

Climate change study began in 1979, afterthe 2nd World Meteorological Conference.“Climate Change” was the first symposium






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middle of August) and long cold winter (endof November to April) with spring (April tobeginning of June) and autumn (end of Augustto end of October). Summer rainfall seldom

exceeds 380 mm in the mountains and is lessthan 50 mm in the desert areas.

Khuvsgul mountainous region is lower than –40C, and between the mountains and in baseof large rivers, the average temperature islower than –6 to -8 0C. In the steppes and desert

regions it is lower than 2 0C, while in south Gobi,the average temperature is higher than 6 0C(Figure 2.2 .). The average temperature of 0 0Cin Mongolia is around the 46 0N latitude whichis the northern part of Gobi desert region.Permafrost exists in the areas where theannual mean temperature is below –2 0C.

The air temperature in January, which isthe coldest month, averages -30 0C to – 34 0Cin the high mountain areas of Altai, Khangai,

Khuvsgul and Khentii; while it is -20 to -25 0Cin the steppe and -15 to -20 0C in the Gobidesert. In the south Gobi regions thetemperature averages –15 0C to –12 0C. On theweather record since the 1940s, the coldesttemperature in Mongolia recorded was -55.3 0C(in December 1976 at the Zuungovi sum, Uvsaimag) while it is -49.0 0C in the capital city ofUlaanbaatar (in December 1954). Theinfluence of inverse on the temperature in the

cold season is significant. According to the datafrom the upper air stations located in the largerivers basins during the cold seasons, low layersurface inverses with 600 to1,000 m. thicknessand the 6-17 0C intensity are observedeveryday. Due to this weather features in therivers basins and low lying areas at 100 m., itis observed that as the elevation rises, the airtemperature rises by 0.8-0.9 0C. On the sidesof mountains and steppes, the temperaturerises by 0.6 0C ( Figure 2.2 )

In July, the warmestmonth, average temperaturein Altai, Khangai, Khuvsgul,and Khentien mountains is15 0C, and 10 0C in lower partsof the mountains. In the areasof Basins of Great Lakes (Ikhnuuruudyn khotgor) Altai,Khangai, Khuvsgul andKhentii mountain regions andis the basis of Orkhon,Selenge and Khalkh rivers,the average temperature is


Figure 2.2 Annual Mean Air Temperature Map

Geography

Mongolia is situated in the central part of the Asiatic continent (41 O 35’N - 52 O 09’N and 87 O 44’E - 119 O 56’E). The country is bounded on the north by Russia and on the east, south, and west by China. It has a total area of 1,565,000 sq. km. Mongolia’s

longest stretch from west to east is at 2,392 km., and from north to foremost southern point is 1,259 km. Mongolia is the 7 th largest country in terms of area and 18 th largest country by population in the world. It is alsoone of the largest mainland countries with no access to sea.

The topography of Mongolia consists mainly of a plateau with the elevation ranging from 914 to 1,524 m. (about 3,000

and 5,000 ft.) broken by mountain ranges in the north and west. The Altai Mountain in the southwest rises to heights 4267 m (14,000 ft) above the sea level.

Air Temperature

The temperature ranges between -15° and-30°C (-5° and -22°F) in winter and 10° and26.7°C (50° and 80°F) in summer. Annual

mean temperature in Altai, Khangai, Khentii,



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50-100 mm in the Gobi-desert. Precipitationdistribution depends very much on relief andlandscape and decreases from north to southand from east to west ( Figure 2.5) . Totalprecipitation amount is much lower than the

between 15 0C and 20 0C. In the south parts of steppes of Dornod and the Gobi deserts, thetemperature averages 20-25 0C, while in theareas of Dornogovi, the temperature is higher than 25 0C ( Figure 2.3 ). The hottest

Figure 2.3. Map of Mean Temperature in Winter Figure 2.4. Map of Mean Temperature in Summer

Figure 2.5 Geographical Distribution of Annual Total Precipitation

Figure 2.6a Geographical Distributionof Summer Precipitation

Figure 2.6b Geographical Distribution of Winter Precipitation

temperature ranges between 28.5 0Cand 44.0 0C. The hottest temperature of 44 0C was recorded in Darkhan Uulaimag, Khongor sum (July 24 th, 1999).

In the warm seasons, the air temperature drops by 0.5-0.6 0C for every 100 m. rise in altitude. In highmountain regions, the cold season inspring ends late (mid of June) and coldseason starts early (mid of August),which leaves only 70 days for warmperiod. The warm days last for 90-130days in the rest of the country.

The number of days withtemperatures higher than 10 0C is 90days in the mountainous areas whichare elevated more than 2,000m. andforested,while in the steppe areas, it is90-110 days. In the grassland steppes,it is 110-130 days, while in the desert,it is 130-150 days and in the Gobidesert, it is more than 150 days.

Precipitation

In general, the amount of precipitation in Mongolia is low. Annualmean precipitation is 300-400 mm. inthe Khangai, Khentein and Khuvsgulmountainous regions; 250-300 mm inMongol Altai and forest-steppe zone;150-250 mm in the steppe zone and











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maximum amount of precipitation in a daytends to increase as well. However, there isno statistically significant trend in themaximum amount of precipitation in a day.

As precipitation intensity increases, theextent of damage caused by it also increases.As a result of extreme events (atmosphericconvection) such as thunderstorms, flashfloods hail, etc., damage has significantlyincreased during the past 20 years andcaused human death and economic losses.Natural disasters have increased by a factorof 2 in 20 years ( Figure 2.13. )

Climate Extreme Indices Change

Changes in climate elements areimportant in climate change and variabilitystudy. Climate extreme indices change studyhas conducted for the first time in 2003, usingweather stations data for the 1961-2001periods. Daily maximum and minimumtemperature and 27 indices of temperature

Table 2.4. Climate Extremes Indices

Fd-5Su26Gsl

Tn10pTx10pTn90pTx90pwsdicsdi

sdii

R95p

R99p

prcptot

Abbreviation Name Description Unit

Cold dayHot dayVegetation growingperiod

Cool nightCool dayWarm nightWarm dayIndicator of hot daysIndicator of colddaysIndex of day

High precipitation

Very high

precipitationTotal amount ofprecipitation

Year Tn (lowest temperature of the day) <0 OCYear Tx (highest temperature of the day) >26 0CAverage temperature in the first half of the yearTmean>5 0C and average temperature in thesecond half of the year, at least 6 daysTmean<5 0CTn<10 percent of the dayTx<10 percent of the dayTn>90 percent of the dayTx>90 percent of the dayTx>90 percent of the day, at least 6 daysTn<10 percent of the day, at least 6 days

Annual total precipitation divided ratio days withprecipitationAnnual total precipitation RR>95 th more thansupplyAnnual total precipitation RR>95 th more than

supplyTotal amount of precipitation of days withprecipitation

daydayday

daydaydaydaydayday

mm/ day

mm

mm

mm

and precipitation recommended by the ExpertTeam on Climate Change Detection,Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI) wereanalyzed to identify the change in trend.

There are available data for 1961-2007period for 23 stations where 12 out of 27indices fit in the Mongolia country situation.Data above and below the mean 4 sigma([mean ± 4*standard.deviations]) interval areused for quality check. Linear trending hasbeen used to analyze 47 years of variabilityin western, central, eastern, southern anddesert regions which created each of theregion’s mean data as seen in Table 2.4 .

Due to global warming, the number of hotdays (su26) increased by 16-25 days, numberof cold days (fd-5) decreased by 13-14 days,and vegetation growing period (gsl) increasedby 14-19 days. Night temperature which ishigher (Tx90) and lower (Tn10p) than 90 and10 percent provision, is more intense thanday temperature. Figure 2.13 shows



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correlations between changes in numbers of days with extreme maximum and minimumtemperatures with 90 and 10 percentiles.Figure 2.14 shows trends of number warm

(a) and cold (b) days with 90 and 10percentiles for 1961-2007.

Number of hot days (Wsdi) increased by

8-13 days and number of cold days (Csdi)decreased by 7-11 days.

Precipitation rate decreased in the mostof the regions except western part of thecountry. Slightly trend of increasedprecipitation is observed in some areas.

Table 2.5. Change Trend of Climate Extremes Indices

Indexsu26fd-5Gsl

tx10ptx90ptn10ptn90pWsdiCsdir95pr99pPrcptot

Western region16 (7…26)-14 (-5…-22)14 (9…23)

-6 (-2…-11)8 (4…12)-10 (-5…-15)10 (7…18)12(3…23)-11 (-4…-25)3 (-35…19)1(-17…13)5(-35…48)

Central region25 (17…30)-22 (-12…-32)19 (9…25)

-6 (-4…-8)9 (7…12)-10 (-4…-14)14 (9…17)13 (10…17)-7 (-1…-14)-23 (-37…8)-4 (-22…22)-49 (-10…-71)

Eastern region20 (6…29)-13 (-4…-19)9 (6…16)

-3 (-2…-3)7 (7…9)-8 (1…-16)10 (5…10)12 (8…14)-8 (0…-18)-25 (-1…-39)-2 (-7…40)-55 (-18…-86)

Gobi region20 (6…29)-14(-12…-17)14 (7…19)

-5 (-3…-7)7 (5…10)-9 (-6…-13)11 (9..12)8 (6…12)-7 (-5…-10)-21 (-3…-45)-7 (-27… 3)-44 (-14…-70)

a) b)

Figure 2.14. Correlations between changes in numbers of days with extreme maximum and

minimum temperatures with 90 and 10 percentiles at selected stations.

Figure 2.15. Trends of Number Warm (a) and Cold (b) Days with 90 and 10 Percentiles



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2.2.4 Climate Change Projections

Model selection

Mongolia’s future climate changes until2100 are determined on the base of the A1,A2 and B1 scenarios of GHG Emissions(SRES) using biochemistry models.

Currently, developed countries are usingthese models for global scale study, and theresults, time frame, space of the study arevaried in different countries. In the frameworkof Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC,study of climate change future scenarios were

conducted using 24 models from 17 centers.12 models which used A1, A2 and B1scenarios of GHG Emissions were selectedand evaluated by their accuracy of theirstudies on mean annual temperature andtotal precipitation amount of Mongolia in theperiod of 1971-1999.

Towards that objective, some statisticmeasure such as spatial correlationcoefficient, standard deviation and variancecoefficient are estimated between modeloutput and NCEP/CMAP reanalysis data interms of how regional climate has been

reconstructed ( Table 2.6 ). Here, thereanalysis data is not real geographicaldistribution of the climate variable, but it ismost realistic (perfect) atmospheric state

data set which is combined with constructionof different climate element fields anddynamic models output. Reanalysis data hasa warm bias in winter and cold bias in thesummer in terms of seasonal temperatureover Mongolia [2]. However, at present, thisdata is only available on digital climatedataset for mapping.

According to the evaluation, temperaturestandard derivation is between 1.26-3.44 0C,coefficient of space correlation is between0.67-0.96, precipitation correlation coefficientis between 0.37-0.93. These sets of criteriacreated an opportunity to select accuratemodel to analyze future climate scenario ofMongolia. ECHAM5-OM, HadCM3, CM2,CCSM3 and CGCM2 models analyzedclimate of Mongolia more accurately and inthe future these models would work moreaccurately. All models showed increased totalannual precipitation amounts. However, thestandard derivation was not calculated by allmodels.

Table 2.6 Evaluation of Climate Models

Meteorologicalstations

1. BjerknesCentre for

ClimateResearch,Norway2. NationalMeteorologicalcenter, France3. Common-wealthScientific andIndustrial

ResearchOrganization,Australia

Centerabbreviation

BCCR

CNRM

CSIRO

Modelabbreviation

BCM2.0

CM3

Mk3.0

Standardtemperaturederivation

1.51

1.84

2.12

Temperaturevariationcoefficient

2.29

3.39

4.44

Temperaturecorrelationcoefficient

0.95

0.94

0.86

Precipitationcorrelationcoefficient

0.75

0.75

0.75



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4. Max PlanckInstitute for Meteorological,Germany5. Meteorolog-isches Institutder UniversitatBonn, GermanyNational Instituteof Meteorologi-cal Research,Korea MaxPlanckInstitute, Germany

6. GeophysicalFluid DynamicsLaboratory, USA7. Institute of NumericalMathematics,Russia8. L’InstitutPierre-SimonLaplace, France9. NationalInstitute for EnvironmentalStudies, Japan10. Meteorologi-cal ResearchInstitute, Japan11. NationalCenter for AtmosphericResearch, USA

12. UKMeteorologicalOffice, UK

MPI-M

MIUB,METRI, M&D

GFDL

INM

IPSL

NIES

MRI

NCAR

UKMO

ECHAM5-OM

ECHO-G

CM2.0

CM3.0

CM4

MIROC3.2medres

CGCM2.3.2

CCSM3

HadCM3

1.26

2.29

1.66

3.44

3.13

2.22

1.94

1.62

1.51

1.59

5.24

2.75

11.84

9.79

4.92

3.74

2.62

2.30

0.96

0.87

0.93

0.75

0.67

0.88

0.91

0.94

0.94

0.91

0.37

0.92

0.81

-0.81

0.85

0.90

0.87

0.93

Climate Change Projections

In the Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC,three green house gas (GHG) scenarios (A2,A1B and B1) have been selected based onglobal socio-economic future trends.

According to the estimation, correspondingvalues for these scenarios for average GHGconcentration in the atmosphere would reach

levels of 840, 720 and 550 ppm by end of this century, respectively.

The statistic assessment of the modelsshows that standard deviation of temperaturebetween reanalysis data and simulatedclimate is 1.26-3.44 0C; spatial correlationcoefficient is 0.67-0.96, and 0.37-0.93 for precipitation as respectively. Hence, above




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three statistic measures are chosenas main criteria to select bestmodel, which might be reasonableto predict future climate change of

Mongolia.If the model is chosen based on

these criteria, HadCM3, ECHAM5-OM, CM2 and CGCM2 havecomparable minimum errors whensimulating regional climate of thecountry. This nevertheless givesconfidence for future climatechange projection. Currently, allmodels overestimate annual total

precipitation; however, the standarddeviation has not been considered.

Figure 2.16. Observed (1850-2000) and Future CO 2

Concentration in the Atmosphere

The geographical distribution of the annualmean temperature and total precipitation areshown by some output of the models usedand the reanalysis data in Figure 2.17 . Here,

the annual mean temperature and totalprecipitation averaged by 1971-1999 and1979-1999 periods, respectively.

A. Annual mean temperature, 0C B. Annual total precipitation, mm

NCEP reanalysis data

HadCM3 model of Hadley Center

Mpeh5 model of Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology

Figure 2.17. Geographical Distributions of 1971-1999 Mean Climate Represented by ReanalysisData and Model Simulation



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Climate Change Projection of Multi-model Ensemble

A dynamic process of the earthatmosphere is chaotic. To account thisproperty of air into the atmospheric dynamicmodel, a special ensemble technique is usedin the modelling framework. The ensemblemembers of model output are produced usingperturbation of initial condition for the model(in other words, to increase number of modeloutput under the same physicalparameterization and dynamics). After gettingresult for each of the ensemble members,output is averaged by their numbers which in

the process, could improve the accuracy of results.

Therefore, the average of above modelsoutput or multi-model ensemble outputwould improve the projection of the climatechange of Mongolia.

The changes of winter and summer temperature and precipitation are estimated

under A1B GHG scenarios and their resultsare shown in Figure 2.18 - 2.19 . Here, a totalof 12 climate models output is used in theestimation of annual mean temperature

change and out of these, 6 models (MPI-M,GFDL, NIES, MRI, NCAR, UKMO) (with their spatial correlation higher than 85% accordingto previous statistical assessment) are usedin the estimation of annual total precipitationchange.

A climate baseline for Mongolia wasselected for 1980-1999 which is the same asthat used for AF4 IPCC. The change value isconsidered as year-to-year from 2000 to 2099

as compared to the values of the baselineperiod. Their geographical distribution ismapped in the beginning (2011-2030), middle(2046-2065), and end (2080-2099) of thiscentury. The air temperature and precipitationchange are expressed as Celsius degree unitand percentage which relative to baselineclimate as respectively. There is highprobability that the model systematic errors

Figure 2.18. a) Winter and b) Summer Temperature Change Trends of Mongolia according toEstimation of A1B, GHG Emission Scenarios, 0C, 2000-2099

Figure 2.19. a) Winter and b) Summer Precipitation Change Trends of Mongolia according toEstimation of A1B, GHG Emission Scenarios, 0C, 2000-2099





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Table 2.7. Future Climate Change Projected by Hadley Center Model, HadCM3

Period

Annual

Winter

Summer

A2A1BB1A2A1BB1A2A1BB1

2011-20301.00.90.80.70.20.21.11.41.2

2046-20652.73

2.12.32.51.63.13.62.7

2080-20995.04.63.14.23.83.06.35.63.7

Temperature Change , 0C Precipitation Change, %2011-2030

203

1407-2-42

2046-2065976

192314430

2080-20991516115541327

118

Table 2.7 shows that intensity of warming

in summer season is higher than winter andits amount are 1.1-1.4 0C in 2011-2030, 2.7-3.6 0C in 2046-2065 and 3.7-6.3 0C in 2080-2099 periods, respectively. Winter temperatures will be increased by 0.2-0.7 0C,1.6-2.5 0C and 3.0-3.8 0C in correspondingsame periods as well.

Generally, precipitation will be increased;however, there is small decreasing in summer seasons in 2011-2030 according to A2 and

A1B GHG scenarios. The precipitation insummer season will be increased by less than10%, which is smaller than winter precipitationincreasing as compared to their climatenormal. The summer precipitation will bedecreased by 2-4% in 2011-2030, increasedby 0-4% in 2046-2065 and 7-11% in 2080-2099 periods. The winter precipitation isprojected to increase by 0-14%, 14-23% and32-55%, corresponding to the abovementioned periods as well.

Due to cl imate change effect , i t is

anticipated that winter is becoming milder and snowy, while summer is becoming hottier and drier even though there is small increaseof precipitation based on overall climatechange assessment.

Projected time series of temperature andprecipitation are shown in Figure 2.20 - 2.22 .As seen here, the climate change time seriesvalues within 1900-1999 period as well asprojected time series within 2000-2099 are

being given by depending on world populationgrowth, socio-economic and technologydevelopment.

The amplitude of winter temperature andprecipitation change is relatively higher thansummer season ( Figure 2.22 ). It is indicatingthat winter is becoming milder and snowy andthere is high probability of climate anomalousphenomena (harsh winter, heavy snow etc).In summer season, warming is continuously

intensified and precipitation will be increasedby less than 20% ( Figure 2.22 ).







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3. Assessment of Impacts and Vulnerability

A comparison of the 1992 and 2002figures, which were taken 10 years apart,reveals that the land surface has changedsignificantly; desert area has increased and

forest area has decreased. In 2006, the landsurface was evaluated by utilizing MODISsatellite data which has 16 times better resolution than the NOAA satellite data.Accordingly, water surface decreased by 38%from 1992 to 2002, but in 2006 the water areafigures increased. Due to the higher qualitysatellite resolution, small lakes and pondscould be observed in the 2006 data whichwere not observable before. Areas withoutgrass (or barren) increased by 46% from 1992to 2002. By 2006, this barren area almosttripled, while during the same period forestarea decreased by more than 26%.

2. Vegetation Zones Using the EntireBiological Product

Biological product is the main criterion for representing the vegetation zones. In order

to calculate the effects of precipitation andtemperature on biological product, or netprimary productivity (NPP), and vegetationzone percentages, we varied the amount of temperature and precipitation.

Table 3.1 shows the current percentageof the total area of Mongolia occupied by eachvegetation zone (as represented by NPP) andthe changes to these percentages for variouschanges in precipitation and temperature.

Table 3.1. Change in the Percentage of Natural Zones when Temperature andPrecipitation Amount Change

NPP,C h/m 2

>296251-295131-25061-130

<60

-10-51+9+6-22

+50

+10+43-3

-12+8

-34

+20+82-9

-20+22

-55

Amount of Landscape Change, %

+1+4-5

-15+11

+19

+3+7-33-8

-10

+83

+5-8

-54-20+2

+179

Precipitation Change % Temperature Change , 0 C

According to the table, NPP>296 C h/m 2,which represents the taiga zone and a larger area, does not change when the temperaturechanges, but it changes when precipitation

changes.According to the HadCM3 model, taiga

forest (NPP>296 C h/m 2) is expected toincrease. This is especially noticeable in theyears of 2020 and 2050. However, it does notmean trees will grow naturally. There is thepossible advantageous condition for trees togrow if biomass increases and there is noeffect of human activity. In 2080, forest-steppeis likely to turn into steppe. But version SRES

A2 shows that the warming rate would be slowand as a result the process of forest-steppeturning into steppe would be slow as well.

The steppe zone (NPP=131-250C h/ m 2)is likely to be pushed by the semidesert zonefrom the south and decreases significantly.Due to climate warming, the semidesert zonewill push the steppe zone to the north,especially in 2080. In 2080, forest-steppe andsteppe areas decrease; this is caused by a

lack of rainfall and an increase in temperaturein the growing season (June, July,September). Even if, the amount of precipitation increases up to 1.6-2.7 mm,temperature is likely to rise 4-7 0C which willcause evaporation and make the air dryer.

The percentage of desert zone (NPP=60Ch/m 2) tends to expand to the north. Althoughthe amount of precipitation is expected to



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increase, semidesert and desert zones are notdecreasing; they are likely to expand. In otherwords, the increased amount of precipitationis still not enough for rapid evaporation.

3. Vegetation zones using degree of dryness

One of the criteria that defines anecosystem is the degree of dryness. Thereare many indices that describe dryness. In thisresearch, the degree of dryness isrepresented by the ratio of total annualprecipitation to annual potential evaporation

[Hare 1993].As the climate warms, the total amount of

annual precipitation also increases, butsemidesert and steppe zones move to thenorth and the degree of dryness tends toincrease more. These changes will beobserved more in 2070-2099.

Based on calculations ofthe degree of dryness fromfuture climate changescenarios, vegetation zoneswill move to the north andsemidesert and steppe zoneswill likely expand. Therefore,the northern part of the countryis considered to be a sensitivearea. This does not mean thatone zone will transform intoanother one immediately.

In conclusion, the northernpart of the country tends tobecome dryer steppe, but ifpermafrost melts rapidly, thenmoisture in the soil will increase.Consequently, the drying process will occurover a long period of time. In other words, thedrying process will affect plants when themoisture from the permafrost declines.However, the percentage of the desert zonewill not increase extensively. The increase inthe total amount of annual precipitation willreduce the aridity of the climate in this zone.

More detailed discussion on thetechniques in evaluating land surface changese.g. vegetation zones from a plan can be seenin Annex 3.1 .

3.1.2. Permafrost

In Mongolia, the permafrost is locatedabove the 43 0 N latitude, and 63 percent ofthe total territory of Mongolia has permafrostsoil. Permafrost soil is deep underground soilwith a temperature that is constantly at orbelow the 0 0 C for two or more years.Depending on its distributional features, thereare seven types of permafrost, includingcontinuous, discontinuous, common patchy,rare patchy, occasional, non-constant(permafrost that is formed once in a coupleyears) and seasonal ( Figure 3.3. ).

In the northern part of Mongolia, the totalarea with permafrost soil increases andcontinuous permafrost prevails.


Figure 3.3. Distribution of various types ofpermafrost in Mongolia, 1968-1970

Current Change in Permafrost

Over the past 30 years, a seasonal thawingin the active soil layer in the permafrost regionhas increased by 0.1-0.6 centimetres in theKhentii and Khangai mountains and by 0.6-1.6 centimetres in the Khuvsgul Mountains.The seasonal permafrost level in the activesoil layer in the eastern part of Mongolia has





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and other information on the permafrostconcern can be seen in the Annex 3.2 .

3.1.3. Glaciers and Snow Cover (Cryoshpere)

Cryosphere

The cryosphere integrates “the components of climate system which are ice, snow, frozen soil including permafrost lying under the land surface and the ocean.” An assessment of the impact of climate change on the cryosphere with respect to the snow cover has been ongoing since the mid-1990s; and the study of the impact of climate change on the ice caps and ice began a couple years ago.

Snow Cover

Snow cover plays an important role in theenvironment: namely, it provides insulation toprotect the deep soil that remains frozen, actsas a water source for herdsmen, wild anddomestic animals during the winter, andnourishes the rivers and streams in the spring.However, if there is heavy snowfall, a whitezud occurs, which results in no food beingavailable for the herds. Conversely, if no snowfalls, a black zud occurs, resulting in a lack ofdrinking water for herds. B. Erdnetsetseganalyzed the trends of some indicators ofsnow cover in Mongolia over the last 30 years

and attempted to predict, using the worldclimate models, possible changes in snowcover.

The current changes in snow cover indicators. The change in the average depthof snow cover over the last 30 years showsthat the snow cover depth is decreasing in thenorthern mountainous region of Mongolia;however, the snow cover depth tends toincrease in the eastern and southern steppe

and the Gobi desert region. In the northernmountainous and eastern part of Mongolia, ithas been observed that the annual

precipitation tends to be increasing, or in otherwords, the depth of the snow cover hasresulted in a small increment. Moreover, thedate of the first snow in the fall (0.54, 0.74)

has advanced, and the timing for formingstabile snow cover (0.19, 0.28) also hasadvanced.

It has been observed that the date of snowmelting in the spring tends to occur a littleearlier in the northern mountainous part of thecountry (-0.08), and a little later in easternAimags (0.10). Moreover, the level of snowfall tends to be smaller in the southern semi-desert and desert region and the expected

time frame for snow fall has been advancedto early fall. This region usually does notaccumulate snow cover and the generaltendency of rare incidents is –0.30, 0.05. Thetendency of having snow in late spring andearly summer in the southern (-0.41) andeastern (-0.26) parts of the country has beendecreasing, but in the northern part (0.02) ofMongolia, the likelihood of having snow laterin the season has been increasing.

In Future Trend of Snow Cover, R.Mijiddorj (2002) has postulated that the zeromean line of annual radiation balancebasically overlaps an average air temperatureof 0 o C. Thus, it is possible to draw a borderlinebetween having snow cover for more than 50days and less than 50 days in the country.

Using the IPCC scenarios of greenhousegas emissions SRES A2 and SRES B2 andclimate model HADCM3, the change oflocation of the 0 0 C isotherm of annual averageair temperature has been calculated for theyears of 2020 (2010-2039), 2050 (2040-2069)and 2080 (2070-2099). The results for NPPare depicted in Figure A3.3.1a and FigureA3.3.1.1b, respectively, in Annex 3.3 .According to the maps, the total amount ofland that will have negative annual averagetemperature (or having snow cover for morethan 50 days) has tended to be smaller.

Similarly, the results for degree of dryness aredepicted in Figure A3.3.2a an d FigureA3.3.1.2b, respectively, also in Annex 3.3 .




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Currently, 62 percent of total area of Mongolia is having an annual averagetemperature below 0 0 C. However, asdemonstrated by the SRES A2, SRES B2

scenarios, the coverage area will decline to43-46% in 2020, 31-35% in 2050 and 27% in2080 ( Table 3.2 ).

Moreover, B. Erdenetsetseg discoveredthat the number of days having a daily averagetemperature below 10 0 C is directly correlatedto the number of days with snow cover (correlation coefficient 0.82) and that a strongcorrelation exists between the temperaturechange in the fall season and the timing of

formulation and melting of snow cover.Moreover, in the areas where the number of days with a daily average temperature of lessthan –10 0 C is 100 days or less, no permanentsnow cover forms. Based on the aboveassumptions and the scenarios used indetermining the future climate trends, B.

Table 3.2 Land Coverage Area that is below or above an Annual Average Temperature of 0 0 C asit is Calculated using HADCM3 (as a % of entire country)

GHG Emission ScenariosSRES A2

SRES B2

T0 C< 0 0 C0 0 C << 0 0 C0 0 C <

current62386238

202046534357

205031683565

208027732773

Table 3.3b. Percentage of Land where the Air Temperature is less than -10 0 C of Daily AverageTemperature, Calculated by HADCM3 Model Using SRES B2 Scenario

Number of Days<5051-100

101-120121-140140<

Current00

3037.532.2

202000

34.235.929.8

205000

32.250.517.3

208000

29.257.413.4

Table 3.3a. Percentage of Land where the Air Temperature is less than -10 0 C of Daily AverageTemperature, Calculated by HADCM3 Modelusing SRES A2 Scenario

Number of days<50

51-100101-120121-140140<

Current0

03037.532.2

20200

034.135.930

20500

032.250.517.3

20800

028.658.313.1

Erdenetsetseg has predicted the future trendof snow cover. The future change has beencalculated by overlapping the distributionalchange of number of days with –10 0 C degree

or below with the mean line of 0 0 C.According to Tables 3.3a and 3.3b ,

currently one expects to have between 100-120 days with snow cover over 30% of thecountry’s land (annual average temperatureis less than 0 o C), 120-140 days with snowcover over 37.5% of the country’s land, and140 or more days with snow cover over 32.2%of the country’s land. This does not mean thateither snow will melt or snow cover will form

once the daily average temperature passesabove or below the –10 0 C point. However, itcan be understood to be the thresholdtemperature for the preservation of snow cover in the areas with permanent snow cover,particularly, deep in the forests, wild lands anddistant pasturelands.




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In the future, the total area having snowcover between 100-120 days and 120-140days will increase slightly, but the coveragearea with snow cover for 140 or more days

will likely decrease by 20 percent. This meansthat some areas currently having more than140 days of snow cover per year will only have120-140 days of snow cover, and some areaswith 120-140 days of snow cover per year will

parameter was calculated as 0.49 cm/ oC perday (2005) and 0.56 cm/ oC per day (2004).D. Davaa has calculated the verticaldistribution of air temperature increase using

multiyear information collected at Ulaangomupper air observation station centre and hasconcluded that 0.0 0C isotherm has beenelevated by 531.3 m between 1976-1993.

Table 3.4 Vertical Distribution of Change in Air Temperature

Height, m

940

1,4903,050

Current change

1.9

1.10.7

2010-20392.3

1.41.0

2040-20694.2

3.32.9

2070-20997.0

6.25.8

Future change

shift to having only 100-120 days. Thus, thetotal coverage area withsnow cover generallywill decrease. However,

climate change may notstrongly affect the areaswhere the permanent

snow cover has formed over longer periodsof time.

In terms of the timing of the snow coverformation, the coverage area that typically hassnow cover before November 11 or fromNovember 12 to 21 will decrease in 2020,2050 and 2080. However, the total area

having snow cover formation betweenNovember 22 and December 11 tended toincrease. Therefore, one can conclude thatthe third week of November is the mostprobable time for snow cover to be formed(2050-2080). The permanent snow cover willform in the largest territory during the secondten days of October in 2020 and 2050, andthe third ten days of November in 2080.

Currently, the melting period of thepermanent snow cover, which is calculatedbased on the average air temperature of –10 0

C, is during the last ten days of February andin March. However, in the years of 2020, 2050and 2080, the snow melting period will beadvanced by 20 days according to theestimations based on the SRES A2 and SRESB2 scenarios by HadCM3 model.

During the observation period, the level ofglacier melting is 54 cm in 2004 and 89 cm in2005 and the sum of daily average air positivetemperature is 96.2 o C and 181.6 o C,respectiv ely. From here, the melting

According to the calculation of thetemperature change, the glacier melting inTsambagarav Mountain will increase by 131cm in 2010-2039, 371 cm in 2040-2069, and739 cm in 2070-2099. Accordingly, there is ahigh chance that snow cap with about 50meter depth will completely melt by 2040, with

an 100 meter depth will completely melt by2050-2060, with a 200 meter depth willcompletely melt by 2070-2080, and with a 300meter depth will completely melt by 2090.More details on glacier and snow coverassessments can be seen in Annex 3.3 .

3.1.4. Water Resources

Mongolia has limited water resources.

Mongolia has 599 cubic kilometres of water,including of 500 cubic kilometres in lakes and90 cubic kilometres of salt water. In particular,its glaciers contain 62.9 cubic kilometres ofwater, and there are 34.6 cubic kilometres ofwater in surface and underground watersources. The total water consumption in thecountry is only about 0.5-0.7 cubic kilometres.According to the surface water inventoryconducted in 2003, there are 5,565 rivers andstreams, of which 683 have dried up; 9,600springs, of which 14,84 have dried up; and,4,193 lakes and ponds, of which 760 havedried up during the last few years. However,










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area, it is above 0.65. On other hand, traditionalgrassland animal husbandry of Mongolia hasbeen highly defended from natural conditionand pasture during 4 seasons. Therefore,

desertification has become one of theextremely specific natural disasters inMongolia. According to some data sources, 70% of the grassland in Mongolian territory hasbeen affected by decertification. [ 5]

The study conducted by using of land andsatellite monitoring in the Institute of Geo-ecology concluded that the 78,2% of territoryof Mongolia has been affected by middle andhigh rate decertification [6] (Figure 3.7 ).

Figure 3.7. Dispersion of Desertification in Mongolia(A.Khaulenbek 2007)

Consequently, desertification impactassessment study results such as 20-30%decreasing of a pasture grassland growthduring the last 40 years and livestock

vulnerability rise, due to the pasturedegradation has shown that desertificationissue shall be considered at the NationalSecurity Management level. The Desertification Future Tendency

In the 21 st Century, global climate changewill intensify and it will obviously occur inMongolian territory, which located at coldestcontinental area. Climate projections wereestimated by HADCM model usinggreenhouse gas emission scenarios of SRESA2 and SRES B2. Evaluation outcomesshown that territorial monthly average

temperature of warm season expected toincrease by 1,2-2,3 0C in 2010-2039, by 3,3-3,6 0C in 2040-2069 and by 4,0-7,0 0C in 2070-2099. In particular, in the High Mountain and

steppe zone, it would be significantly warmer.The precipitation variability would be

approximately ±4% or 6-17 mm during 2010-2039 and expected increase by 7-8% /27-33mm/ over 2040-2069, and in 2099 thegrowth rate will be decreased again. In otherwords, it has observed that precipitation wouldnot be increased by pursuing the significanttemperature growth in the 21 st Century.

Thus, predictedintensive temperatureincrease is in the westernareas, precipitationdecreases are in thecentral regions and itsincreasing tendencywould be observed in theeastern part of Mongolia.Air temperature increasein warm season wouldcause an expectedincrease of territorialannual evaporation by100 mm over 2010-2039,185 mm in 2040-2069, incomparison to 1990s

level. In other words, this is 6-10% more thanprevious period increase. This means thatdrought intensity and ecosystem degradationis expected to activate due to climate changein the 21 st Century. However, the predictedannual precipitation would be slightlyincreased, the negative natural changes asaridity increases, vegetation and desert-steppe zones migration north ward, associatedwith climate warming is expected to occur.These trends would be observed intensivelyin 2070-2099.

More information on these possibilities andfactors that could have a deeperunderstanding of this important climatechange phenomenon can be seen in theAnnex 3.6 .




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3.1.7. Dust and Sand Storms (Yellow Dust)

Dust storms were started to be observedat the meteorological stations of the NationalMeteorological Services since 1936. On thebasis of former Soviet Union monitoringmethodologies, it has categorized threedefinitions of dust events which are thefollowing: 1) floating dust, 2) drifting dust; and3) dust storm. Visual observation error causedby the surrounding dust can cause inaccuracyin the records at the meteorological stations.A system of differentiating dust events usesdistance synoptic visibility, as shown below:

Over recent decades, it is widespreadpractice to determine the dust-related eventsusing satellite and ground-based monitoringby measuring the dust particles in theatmosphere. During the dust storms, dustparticles in the atmosphere are heated by thesolar radiation which causes additionalheating that is known as Voeikovphenomenon. The phenomenon of dust andsandstorm unpleasantly impacts the animalhusbandry and becomes a factor of thepasturing destruction. Particularly, dust stormoccurrence in the low temperature hassignificantly affected livestock pasturing andherder’s outdoor activity.

As a result of frequent sandstorms,accumulated dust over the animal wooldecreases wool quality and complicates itsprocessing. The sand movement over thedune landscapes causes various other negative impacts such as sand encroachmenton the roads and urban areas, damage to themonuments and memorials, and abrasion of the building chalk leading to falling off due tothe constant impingement of the dust particleson building surfaces.

Geographical dispersion studies of annualaverage amount show that dust stormoccurrences took place for less than 5 days ayear in Khangai, Khovsgol and Khentii

mountainous areas; in the desert areas, 30-37 days; and in the Great Lake Depression,10-17 days ( Figure 3.8 and 3.9 ).

Three major regions, namely, Altain farther Gobi, Red lake of Umnugobi and Zamiin Uudareas are identified as high frequency zonesfor dust storm occurrences. In addition to this,the dust storm occurrence and itsgeographical dispersion is closely related togeographical dispersion of days with massive

wind and the surface soilcharacteristics of thecountry. In other words,sandstorms frequentlyoccur in the regions withstrong winds.

Table 3.5 Definition of Three Types of Dust Events

Type

FD (floating dust)BD (drifting dust)DS (dust storm)

Wind

LowStrongStrong

Visibility

1–10 km1–10 km

<1 km

AtmosphericConditionSuspended

TurbidTurbid

Further information on the dust and sandstorms assessment for Mongolia can be seenin the Annex 3.7.

Figure 3.8 Geographical Distribution of

number of days with Dust Storm

Figure 3.9. Geographical Distribution of number of days with Drifting Dust Storm






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indicators such as pasture and climateimpacts, inticators identified their seasonaland regional defferences, and variable dailygrazing and climatic measurements have

been used in this model.This means thatweight changes were calculated based uponenviromental condition.

Weight changes are calculated taking intoaccount the basic parameter of particular sheep breeding average weight. There areapproximatly 20 various sheep breeds inMongolia which leads to different averageweight parameters during spring, autumnseasons. Estimations were made using the

parameters of long-term average of summer pasture maximum growth, ewe autumnweight, copulation period and daily weather database from 37 meteorological sationsrepresentinging different ecological zones of Mongolia.

During evaluation of climate changeimpacts on Mongolian sheep, there wasestimated sheep’s summer-spring weightvariability, considered, firstly, changes on air

temperature by 1-5 oC and pasture grassmaximum growth by 30, 20, 10, 0, -10, -20, -30 percent based upon database from adozen of meteorological stations representingdifferent ecological zones. According to theobservation, Mongolian sheep achieveavarage weight gains at 16.5 kg, which is 45%of what is achieved in summer-automn period.

Assessment of Future Condition of theMongolian Sheep Grazing

Grazing condition in summer season. Thehot air temperature during summer-autumnperiod significantly impacts on the sheepgrazing, which ultimately leads to livestockbirth condition, fat, fertility and productivity.Animal stimulus lessens and daily pasturageduration decreases, due to the reduction of animal gaze on pastures in very hottemperature. When regional average mean air temperature rises up to 20-22 oC, then pasturegrazing of Mongolian sheep is interrupted andits grass intake decreases. The HADCM3,

ECHAM, CSIRO models have estimatedregional climate change on continues effectivewarming and hot temperature, particularly in2020, 2050 and 2080 that would causes tostress and interruption on Mongolian sheeppasturing.

Outcomes estimated by modeling.Changes in graze interruption, due toextremely hot summer temperature are shownin Figure 3.10a and Figure 3.10b (SRES A2

and B2 scenarios by HADCM3 model).

In accordance with climate warming,regional variation affect as the extremely hotsummer temperature rise negatively impactson the sheep pasturage condition, shown aspixel dots on the map of Mongolia in saidfigures. According to the both scenarios SRESA2 and B2 sheep summer grazing pasture

Figure 3.10. Projected Changes in Grazing Condition due to Climate Change


a) HADCM3 SRES A2 Scenario b) HADCM3 SRES B2 Scenario



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interruption territory increases in the 21 st

Century. For instance, the duration of normalgazing time in summer occupies 25% of totalpasture time then it will decrease by almosttwo times in 2020. However, presentinterruption time of gazing on pasture is 38%,it would be significantly increased up to 53-58 percent in 2020 ( Table 3.6 ). The analysisshows that within any geographical zone, dailyintake of Mongolian sheep would bedecreased because of changes on pasturebiomass and hot temperature condition.Besides this tendency observed that cancause to extend territory of regions with hotclimate condition.

Calculations show that regional areas withcondition of sheep graze interruption, dailytime would be increased by 60% in 2020, andthen it would reach to 70% in 2050 and 80%in 2080.

Further information on the assessingclimate change impacts in animal husbandryfor Mongolia can be seen in the Annex 3.8.

3.2.2. Arable Farming / Agriculture

The network of measuring andassessment of agro-meteorology and agro-climate in Mongolia was first established in

Table 3.6 Forecast of conditions of sheep pasture by HADCM3 model (%)

NormalDifficult

Prevents

Recent25.13936.59638.265

202015.1326.8158.06

20505.67

25.2569.08

20801.56

21.8076.64

HADCM3 by SRES A2 HADCM3 by SRES B2202012.2427.4760.29

20506.90

25.4767.63

20801.56

21.8076.64

1959. The rate of harvesting within theagricultural regions in Mongolia fluctuates yearafter year, depending on the weatherprecipitations. The diagram below showsfluctuation of wheat harvesting rate for manyyears.

From the above it is seen that starting fromthe 1960s – the time of massive cultivation ofwild lands until 1980s harvesting rate perhectare was increasing, the fluctuation wasminimal, especially at the beginning stage. Butduring the last twenty years the harvesting ratedecreased due to some possible reasons.Since 1990s because of shortage in financingand manpower the agriculture was almostabandoned, but aside from these factors,repeated droughts also contributed to suchdecrease.

According to the measurements made bythe agro-meteorological station on the cropfields of the Khongor soum in the Darkhan Uulaimag , based on the specialized Institute ofAgriculture, the wheat harvesting rate between1986-2007 was decreasing by 0.28 centners/ ha. Another factor, which aggravates decreaseof harvests, is increase of number of extreme


Figure 3.12. Ratio between Harvests andnumber of Days on July with air Temperature

warmer than + 26 0CFigure 3.11. Spring Wheat Harvesting Rate

Fluctuation for Many Years



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hot weather days that fall right at the time of blossoming of and pollination crops. Thecrucial time for crops falls on July when theair temperature rise up to +26 0C and warmer.

From the diagram below see for the correlationbetween weather and harvests. [ 10 ]

Assessment of how the climate changeand warming in the recent years affectedtiming of each stage of the wheat growth wastried to be performed.. According to themeasurements taken by several stations, thetime span for each stages of wheat growthseems to have shortened, but the findings arestill being finalized. For instance, the stage

between blossoming and fruiting took longer time by observation of 6 stations. It can beexplained by extreme hot weather in July. Thehigh coefficient of changes in speed of growing within the Khutag and Khalkhgolstations depended on frequency, quality andlength of observation.

Assessments of correlation between

climate change tendencies and harvesting of cultivated plants was first conducted by Dr.Sh. Bayasgalan at the end of 1990s, wherehe used the scenario IS92a of increase of green house gases and models GFDL,CSIRO, CCCM, HADCM2, ECHAM4 andDSSAT 3.0 model for plants. [14] Theestimations show that within the CentralAgricultural region of Mongolia the harvestsof wheat shall decreas by 19-67 %, thoughwithin the other regions harvesing rates shallget increased. As for potatoes harvests – thereno significant declines shall be observed.

Additional information on results of someresearches on climate effects on agriculturecan be seen in Annex 3.9.

3.2.3. Forestry

A long term historical trend onenvironmental development of forest cover inMongolia has shown that forest vegetation hasbeen moderately substituted by plantvegetation. Besides this ecological impact,man-made negative impacts such as forestfire, logging and livestock production havesignificantly intensified the process of forest

transforming into steppe, especially during thelast 100 years. Thus, the tendency continuesto be a decrease of boreal forest with spruceand cedar tree cover areas within the overallforest distribution. This change in compositionof forest areas has been observed.

Over recent years, negativeinfluences on forests, such as climatechange, aridity, forest fire, harmfuleffects of human activities on

biological systems, and harmfuleffects of insect and diseasepropagation have caused hotbeds of damaging activity that have led tocritical injury. This injury is on thescale of environmental disaster. For instance, lightning in the mountaintaiga is the main reason for forestfires occurring in the forest-steppe

and boreal zones . A data source states thatburned forest land comprises 3.36% of thetotal forest stock in Mongolia.

Depending on factors such as climatechange, severe aridity, drought, forest-steppefires, and non-technological timber harvesting,forest ecosystems are changing andgenerating less ecological benefits such aswater regulation and soil protection. Insectsthat consume the leaves, conifer, seeds,cones, stems, and roots of vegetation in the

forests have propagated.Current climate change significantly

impacts forest resources and growth. A


Figure 3.11. Spring Wheat Harvesting RateFluctuation for Many Years









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In order to comply with the obligations andcommitments under the UNFCCC as well asto address challenges relevant to climatechange, Mongolia has developed its NationalAction Programme on Climate Change and theprogramme was approved by the Governmenton 19 July 2000. The action programmeincludes national policy and strategy to tacklewith the climate change adverse impacts andto mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.

4. LEGAL FRAMEWORK OF CLIMATE CHANGERESPONSE MEASURES

4. Legal Framework of Climate Change Response Measures

The Article 4.1(a) of the UNFCCCstates that “All Parties taking into account their common but differentiated responsibilities and their specific national and regional development priorities,objectives and circumstances, shall: …formulate, implement, publish and regularly update national and, whereappropriate, regional programmescontaining measures to mitigate climatechange by addressing anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all GHG not controlled by theMontreal Protocol, and measures tofacilitate adequate adaptation to climatechange”

The Millennium Development Goals-basedComprehensive National DevelopmentStrategy (MDG-based NDS) of Mongoliaidentifies that “to create a sustainableenvironment for development by promoting capacities and measures on adaptation toclimate change, halting imbalances in thecountry’s ecosystems and protecting them” . Inaddition, the NDS includes a StrategicObjective to promote capacity to adapt toclimate change and desertification, to reducetheir negative impacts.

4.1. National Action Programmeon Climate ChangeThe Mongolia National Action Programme

on Climate Change (NAPCC) is aimed notonly to meet the UNFCCC obligations, but alsoto set priorities for action and to integrateclimate change concerns into other nationaland sectoral development plans andprogrammes. The NAPCC is based on thepre-feasibility studies on climate change

impact and adaptation assessment, GHG(GHGs) inventories, and GHGs mitigationanalysis. This Action Programme includes aset of measures, actions and strategies thatenable vulnerable sectors to adapt to potentialclimate change and to mitigate GHGsemissions. Starting point was that thesemeasures should not adversely affect socio-economic sustainable development.

The implementation strategies in the

NAPCC include institutional, legislative,financial, human, education and publicawareness, research aspects, and integrationinto other national and sectoral developmentprogrammes and plans. Also, existing barriersto implementation were identified as well aspossibilities to overcome such barriers. Theprogramme also considered severaladaptation measures for animal husbandryand rangelands, arable farming agricultureand water resources.

Research activities will be focused onsystematic observation and monitoring of theclimate system, development of climatescenarios, vulnerability and risk assessment,potential impacts on ecosystems and society,and possible measures to adapt to climatechange and mitigate the GHGs emissions atthe national level. Based on suchcomprehensive studies and analyses, the

NAPCC should be updated and hencefacilitate the implementation of Mongolia’sstrategy and policy on climate change.



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It is recommended that a considerableamount of capacity building and institutionalstrengthening takes place. Education andactivities to enhance awareness should be

held for decision makers, technical experts,stakeholders, the general public, students andschool children. It is necessary to organizeperiodically information campaigns, distributeinformative leaflets and other materials atnational, regional and local level and to usethe media to inform and educate the society.Periodic review of the level of publicawareness on the climate change is importantto increase public participation in the GHGsmitigation activities. The options for informaleducation in the field of environmentalprotection include use of mass media(newspapers, television, radio) andorganization of conferences and workshopsfor specialists, the general public and thepress.

4.1.1. Adaptation Strategy

Sustainable development depends onclose links between the environment and theeconomy. A significant portion of the economicactivity has always targeted on naturalresources such as pasture, animal husbandry,arable land and water resources. Today,Mongolia faces not only with the sameproblems in developing countries caused bythe global climate change, but also has aspecific concerns which raised from featuresof Mongolia’s geographical and climaticconditions. For instance, melting of permafrostarea, which covers more than 60 per cent ofthe territory of Mongolia, caused by globalwarming will effect very adversely onagriculture practices, water resources andinfrastructure development like bridge androad constructions, buildings, etc. In addition,climate change would effect seriously onecosystem, natural grassland, arable farming,pasture animal husbandry, water resources

and soil quality. Therefore, adaptationproblem will be a high priority concern ratherthan GHG mitigation problem for Mongolia.

In the immediateterm, but howevergovernment should have a more balancedapproach in the long form for both strategies.

Even though, throughout the history,Mongolia agricultural activities such as animalhusbandry and arable land development haveadapted continuously to the risks associatedwith climate variability, the climate changerequires the government efforts to increasethe diversity of crops and innovate thetechnologies. Due to geographical shift in theagricultural land base, pasture availability andarable land development could be changed,and some farmers may benefit locally

improved yields while others might suffer fromhigh investment to adjust farming to climatechange. Also, the climate change may raisethe competition for water in water limitedregion which may affect the welfare of people.Therefore, government strategy forimplementation of the adaptation measuresin agriculture and water resource sectorsshould focus on the following main aspects:

(i) Education and awareness campaigns

between the decision makers, agriculturepeople and public

(ii) Technology and information transfer tofarmers and herdsmen;

(iii) Research and technology to ensure theagricultural development that couldsuccessfully deal with variousenvironmental problems in the 21 st

Century;

(iv) Management measures by coordinatinginformation of research, inventory andmonitoring.

There are still many uncertainties in directand indirect effects of climate change onnatural resource base and agriculturecomponents, in evaluation and developmentadaptation options, and in adaptationtechnologies. Adaptation technologies usuallyrequire large initial investments. At the sametime, the final results and benefits of anyadaptation measures cannot be gettingimmediately. It will require a long time andgreat efforts.




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Above identified adaptation options willhave significant benefit even climate does notchange as predicted. Moreover, assessing thepreference among these options in different

sector is complicated task for policy/decisionmakers since there are multiple problems andobjectives to be solved and meet. Therefore,a simple approach a Screening Matrix of adaptation option was used to examining thepriority of measures. Selected adaptationoptions are assessed with certain criteria thatare more desirable to indicate the conditionsof adaptation options. Adaptation options arequalitatively ranked as high, medium and lowagainst the criteria to indicate the preference.Low cost and low barrier are easier toimplement. This screening is purely subjectiveand is not based on specific models such asintegrated or economic, or certain quantitativeanalysis of the efficacy of adaptation options.

In general, adaptation options as (1)change in fertilizer amount, (2) education andincrease of awareness of herdsmen and (3)conservation of natural water resources have

high priority, more effectiveness and beneficialand easier to implement in terms of cost andbarrier. Population control of animalsaccording to pasture availability and river run-off regulation work appeared most difficult toimplement having high cost and social barrier.

Further identifying adaptation strategiesthat could provide economic, social, technicaland environmental sustainability and minimizeuncertainties require continues study that

includes a broad and comprehensive researchagenda to develop the understanding of theclimate system needed for effective decisionmaking on climate change issues.

4.1.2. Mitigation Strategy

Although, the total emission of GHG isrelatively small, Mongolia has developed itsstrategy and policy to abate GHG emission.The GHG mitigation measures are not onlyimportant to mitigate GHG emissions, but alsothese are necessary to improve efficiency of energy and heat use and introduce

environmentally sound technologies in thesectors that are major GHG emitters.

The greenhouse gas mitigation policiesshould focus on:

(a) Institutional integration: As stated beforethe energy sector is the main source of GHG Emissions and energy problems arebecoming increasingly complex and willrequire intersectoral coordination for comprehensive implementation of GHGmitigation policies. Responsibilities for policymaking and implementation of energy related issues are belonging toMinistry of Mineral Resources and Energy.But the leading organization in GHGmitigation policies is the Ministry for Nature, Environment and Tourism (MNET).It is important to make clear coordinationbetween the ministries and responsibleorganizations to formulate GHG Mitigationpolicies and implement GHG Mitigationprojects.

(b) Prioritize funding: The implementation of mitigation measures will require high levelsinvestment. Since Mongolia is constrainedby many economic problems, it is essentialthat funds will be more clearly prioritizedat the national planning level, and thatresources be allocated according toeconomic and technical criteria. Inparticular, resources should be allocatedin such a way that funding is transferreddirectly to the acting organizations.Cooperating organizations should also beallocated some share of the funding.

(c) Provide legislative base: In order toassume the role of promoter andfacilitator, the government should definethe legislative and administrativeframeworks.

Implementation of GHG mitigation projectsusually requires a large initial investment inexpensive, modern technologies. Certain

economic and policy mechanisms will becritical for the implementation of mitigationoptions. One of the economic mechanisms






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These are:

Undertake a science-based assessmentof climate change effects and define their prospects, and implement a policy in linewith the concept of sustainabledevelopment.

Assess areas affected or are at the riskof being affected by drought and erosiondue to environmental degradation andclimate change, define their prospects,and enhance the capacity to adapt to thepeculiarities of those areas.

Choose and cultivate those sorts of grain,

potato and vegetables, fodder plantswhich are sturdy and capable to adapt toenvironmental and climate change,develop new sorts, and introduceadvanced methods and technology incrop-farming.

Develop and implement a policy withregard to regulating the population andstructure of livestock in accordance withpastures’ capacity.

Develop in combination both nomadicand intensive animal husbandriescapable to adapt to environmental andclimate change, which would be moreproductive and with good biologicalcapability.

Increase public part icipation in theactivities related to climate change anddesertification, to defining and introducing

adaptation measures, means to cope withclimate change, to reducing their adverseimpacts, expand the work on providing to thepublic related knowledge and information.

4.3. Other Climate ChangePolicy and Strategies

The Government of Mongolia has takenseveral steps to deal with environmental and

natural resource issues. However, there is stillno law or any regulation mechanismaddressing climate change related problems.

Some of the existing laws and regulations,especially the environmental protection laws,directly or indirectly relate to emissions of pollutants, including GHGs. One of the

options for the allocation of GHGs emissionlimits among relevant sources and sectors isthe introduction of emission permits. Theallocation should be based on the inventoriesof the current emissions of the production unitsand on the assessment of GHGs mitigationpotential.

Since 1992, the Parliament of Mongoliahas passed several laws directed towardenvironmental protection including the State

Policy on the Environment (1997), which formsthe legal basis for the protection of theenvironment and Mongolia’s naturalresources. In 1995, the MongolianEnvironmental Action Plan was presented.The plan of action outlines the country’spriorities for environment and resourcemanagement. The Mongolian ActionProgramme for the 21 st Century (MAP 21), theNational Action Plan to Combat

Desertification, the National BiodiversityAction Plan, the Action Programme to ProtectAir, the National Action Programme to ProtectOzone Layer were developed. Especially, theMAP 21 includes concrete considerations andrecommendations related to adaptation toclimate change and mitigation of GHGsemissions. The Law on Air (1995) and Lawon Environmental Protection (1995, 2007) arethe main legal instruments for protection of air and environment of the country.

These policy documents should provide anenvironment for compliance with the goals of the NAPCC. However, in order to implementthe adaptation to climate change and GHGsemission reduction measures, theestablishment of special regulations or rulesrelated to climate change response measures,especially GHGs mitigation measures, isrequired. In addition, national policies andstrategies to mitigate GHGs emissions and toadapt to climate change should be reflectedin the laws and other legal instruments whichrelate to the development of relevant




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economic sectors such as energy, coal mining,agriculture, industry, transport, infrastructure,etc.

Recently, The Ministry of Health ofMongolia implemented a project on “ClimateChange and Human Health” with assistanceof the World Health Organization. Within thisproject, a National Adaptation Strategy of theHealth Sector was initiated.

At the moment, the legal environment forsustainable development is on the formationstage. The requirements for sustainabledevelopment will serve as a basis for thedesign and the implementation of laws thatdeal with the relations between nature,environment, society, and economy. In orderto improve the legal structure for sustainabledevelopment, it is necessary to integrate andcoordinate the environmental laws andsectoral action programmes and plans. Inaddition to passing new laws and amendingexisting environmental laws, other relatedlaws need to be amended for certain sectors,particularly laws regulating differentsocioeconomic relations.

4.4. Institutional ArrangementsThe implementation of the NAPCC

requires a close coordination of policies forvarious sectors. Problems in Mongolia seemmore or less recognized on sector levels, andthey are being addressed to certain extent.However, there is a weak coordination ofsectoral actions and the responsibilities arenot clearly distinguished between sectors.Responsibilities for policy formulation andimplementation are usually dispersed amongseveral ministries and agencies such asagriculture, energy, local and provincialauthorities. However climate change issuesshould be managed as a unity rather thansectoral. Integration does not mean that allresponsibilities must be centralized, but that

the responsibilities of all necessary activitiesare clarified and made explicit to all institutesand authorities involved. The implementation

of the identified measures also requires goodcoordination among ministries and agencies.Other important issues are financialassistance and evaluation of achieved results.

The Government has established the inter-disciplinary and inter-sectoral National Climate Committee (NCC) led by the Ministerfor Nature, Environment and Tourism tocoordinate and guide of national activities andmeasures aimed to adapt to climate changeand to mitigate GHG emissions. High levelofficials such as Deputy Ministers, StateSecretaries and Director-Generals of the mainDepartments of all related ministries, agencies

and other key officials are members of theNCC. The NCC approves the country’s climatepolicies and programmes, evaluates projectsand contributes to the guidance to theseactivities. In order to carry out day to dayactivities related to implementations ofresponsibilities and commitments under theUNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol as well as ofthe NCC, and to manage the nationwideactivities, and to bring into actions/integration

of climate change related problems in varioussectors, the Climate Change Office (CCO )under the supervision of the Chairman of theNCC is planned to be established.

The responsible organizations for climatechange measures and actions are the Ministryof Nature, Environment and Tourism (MNET),the Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy(MMRE), the Ministry of Food, Agriculture andLight Industry and the Ministry of Foreign

Affairs and Trade. The National Agency forMeteorology, Hydrology and EnvironmentMonitoring, which is directly under thesupervision of the Minister for Nature,Environment and Tourism, has beendesignated as an operational organization forclimate monitoring and research

The Ministry of Mineral Resources andEnergy and other relevant Ministries andagencies are responsible for the

implementation of GHGs mitigation measures,improving the efficiency in the energy sector,and for proper operation and maintenance of






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Social and economic development of thecountry goes in harmony with its nature andclimate. A minor change in climate severelyimpacts daily routine and causes the declineof industrial effeciency. Also, climate plays aleading role in the natural ecosystem. Climatechange alters the water resources, soil fertility,plants and animal species. Mongolian pastoralanimal husbandry has adapted to itsenvironment and climate for hundreds of years.

The climate of our planet, including our subregion, has changed more recently thanin the previous 2000 years. All these changesare induced by human activities. Now it isgetting obvious that the world’s climate willbe changing in the next 10 years. Manyexperts believe that these changes will begreater than human civilization has ever experienced before. These climate andenvironmental changes in Mongolia will havean adverse affect on our lives. Now, we arefacing challenges to provide sustainabledevelopment. This includes developingpastoral animal husbandry and agricultureeffectively with an inadequate water supply inthis changing situation.

The developing countries are committedto finding solutions to preserving sensitiveecosystems during this climate change. It iscertain that any living thing cannot adapt tosuch an intensified change by its naturaladaptive capacity. In the new millennium, wemust develop social and economic systemsthat can adapt to climate-environmentalchange.

Mongolia is considered quite vulnerable tothe climate change because of itsgeographical location and its traditional socio-economic systems. So, it is essential to

include the current and anticipated changesand its’ impacts while formulating long termnational development concepts. Unless we

5. ADAPTATION STRATEGIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE

5. Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change

change our strategy on land utility, animalhusbandry and agricultural technology, theconventional methods and obsoletetechnologies used in 1960, 1970 we will beeven more adversely affected.

5.1. Needs to Adapt to ClimateChange

The total impact of climate change

depends upon various features of the countryincluding culture, geography, social andeconomic systems. To mitigate the impact of climate change, we must form a national plan.We must also evaluate the impact on our natural resources and economic system.

Adaptation to climate change : Adaptation to climate change refers toadjustments in natural or human systems

to actual or expected climatic effects. Thismoderates harm and exploits beneficial opportunities. Adaptation can bedistinguished as anticipatory and reactiveadaptation, private and public adaptation,and autonomous and planned adaptation.

Policy on adoptation to climatechange: Adaptation policy on climatechange refers to the activities taken by government in order to restrict and facilitate

the vulnerability to climate change, its’ fluctuation, extreme incedents, to lessenlikelyhood of getting hit by such incedentsthrough making legislative regulation,

promotion and coordination.

Adaptation capacity: Adaptationcapacity refers to the systamatic ability tocombat actual damages, to exploit beneficial opportunities and to resist expected damages occurred due to

climate change.





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2. Providing appropriate balance of grasslandutility and agricultural management.

3. Building a water supply network andirrigation system

4. Improving road

5. Protecting and conserving saxaul andother forests and planting frutescent andperennials in the degraded land and aridland area.

6. Keeping traditional methods to protectnature and educating people on climatechange

The first step towards the restoration of soilfertility is the creation of vegetative coverageon soil surface. After that, it needs to increasehumus level by accumulating organicsubstances in it. In different places of theworld, the only way used to restore soil fertilityis enhancement of organic substances in thesoil. The method to enhance organicsubstances is varied depending on thefeatures of environment and climate.According to the survey in the centralagricultural zone conducted by the Instituteof Botany and Agriculture (by E. Otgonbaatar,1991-1994), the “prior to” is the major incentiveto increase the level of organic substanceresidues in soil, particularly leguminous plantsare remarkably useful because of its rich greenmass and capacity to increase nitrogen in soilby bulb bacteria multiplication. It plays a roleboth nitrogen and organic fertilizer inMongolian brown soil, known as the lack of nitrogen. As an example, the level of nitrogenand humus in soil has increased after plantingLucerne on the arable of Boroo, inZuunkharaa, for 3 years, which wasconsidered infertile and out of use. (Dorj,1999)

5.2.2. Natural disasters and communicable diseases

Asia, specifically Central Asia andMongolia is considered the most susceptibleto natural disasters considering the number

of people who suffered from the occurrenceof natural calamities. Due to climate change,the recurrence and scale of natural disastersare expanding in Mongolia. For instance,

because of the decline of spring precipitationpercentage by 17 percent in last 60 years, theoccurrence of forest and steppe fire and its’recurrence has increased tremendously. Thedamage of the fires is estimated by billions of MNT, excluding the environmental and humanlosses. There is a likelihood that theoccurrence of steppe fire depends on theintensification of Al Nino or Southernfluctuation. So, it is vital to improverespondence capacity of government,government institutions and public towardshazards and preventive systems of naturaldisasters such as drought, zud (naturaldisaster caused by excessive snow), snowstorm and flood and prognostic methodssystematicly. Also, scientific approach has tobe used in developing prognostic methods andassessing preferable instrument to evaluateand estimate climate change in Mongolia. Itis of particular importance to decide whether 60 years of observation period or some other time factors will be appropriate in theprognosis, in anticipation of climate changingsharply and with some extreme hazardsalready expected to increase in the near future.

In some Asian countries, contagiousdiseases that spread through the wind are themain reasons of death and sickness. Also,variety of parasites, rodents and bats are thetransmitters of diseases. The expansion andgrowth capacity of these animals are ranging.For instance, the fluctuation of the number andgrowth of field mouse in Mongolia, that destroythe pasture land hugely, could be mentioned.As for Mongolia, the diseases spread throughthe food are the main problem. Climatechange aggravates the eruption andexpansion of these transmitted diseases indirect or indirect way.

Mentioning some measures should betaken to prevent and to reduce the risk of




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expansion of communicable diseases andnatural disasters are:

1. Undertaking a survey promptly regardingthe influence of climate change on publicand environmental health and making anevaluation on it, an activity which has neverbeen undertaken in Mongolia before

2. Modifying and strengthening preventiveand rescuing capacity of nationalmeteorological and combating institutionsagainst natural disasters.

3. Researching the area with high risks offorest and steppe fires and making a full

evaluation on it and initiating the activitieson educating public.

4. Modifying the preventive, protective andforecasting system of flood

5. Expanding the number of healthorganizations responsible for prevention ofhuman and animal communicablediseases.

5.2.3. Animal Husbandry

Pastoral animal husbandry has adapted toclimate change and its risks for centuries butthe survey result reveals that climate changeis accelerating so it is essential to take actionson future improvement of animal husbandryin correlation with climate change.

One of the key concerns in providingsustainable development of the country is the

reduction and mitigation of negative impactsof climate change observed during the last 60years on pastoral livestock sector. Animalhusbandry adapts to environment and climatechange through the biological adaptive abilityof livestolk itself and is regulated by humancreative activity with particular purpose. Thehalf of the Mongolian population who live inthe countryside and whose main source oflivelihood is animal husbandry, are also those

who provide food and fiber to the other half.Animal husbandry and its growth is assessedby the effectiveness of activities on food

safety, rural development and well being ofherdsmen and livestock, which are all tied andinseparable. So, it is necessary to considerthese factors when formulating development

strategies and methods of adaptation toclimate change. To lessen the impacts ofclimate change is not being reached to thelevel that the current survey shows some vitaladaptation measures to provide sustainabledevelopment of animal husbandry are haveto be taken. Some measures are mentionedbelow:

A. Regulatory and utilization measures regarding to pastureland :

Improving pastureland management

Precipitating cultivated pastureland

Emerging brand new breeds of plantspersistent to droughts and pests

Vegetating pasturelands

Improving pastureland irrigation system

Enhancing production and preparationof fertilizer

Legislating ownership of pastureland

Balancing the heads of livestock withpasture land capacity

B. Methods of looking after and herding the livestocks:

Improving the quality of bio-capacity oflivestocks

Modifying hibernation and springsettlements for livestock

Expanding research and experiment onlivestock effeciency

Enhancing artificial inseminationtechniques

Stabilizing the operation of veterinary

Preparing and training agriculturalmanagers

Organizing variaty of trainings (online,local, abroad, specialization and etc.)






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amount of forage and fodder are eaten by theircattle from the pasture. The investment byherders could be made in 2 ways: a)vegetation of pasture; and b) creation

(cultivation) of pasture. The efficiency of bothmethods depends on how good herders’ownership of pasture is guaranteed. There isa promising future if the herders makeinvestment in pasture land cooperatively.

According to the theory “the tragedy ofpublic ownership”, the management of pastureland can improve only in the case ofprivatization. Up until now the ownership ofpasture in Mongolia is determined by

provincial boundary, but it doesn’t mean thatthe issue of pasture land ownership isresolved. At present there are arguments anddebates over the pasture land ownershiprights and use in the countryside. Due to theincrease of the number of herders 2.6 timesand reached 554 thousand since 1989, itbecame and still is a challenge for new herdersto obtain the land for winter stay. People whoused the pasture during the socialist regime

and privatized it later consider themselves theowners of the pasture, while others claimthemselves the owners because theirancestors lived there before. Herdsmen withno hibernation or place to spend the winter,resolve this through the connection of relativesand social interaction. If pasture landownership is affirmed and guaranteed legally,it makes possible for herders to unite andresolve the problems pertaining protection,improvement and usage of pasture landinterchangeably, building cattle pen andstockyards on it and dig wells collaboratively.

Pasture degradation could be preventedthrough tax policy and using it in a reasonableway. Tax policy could be used as an incentiveprocedure that lessens the overload of pastureland near concentrated places and main roadsthrough imposing more tax on, and notdepending on the number of livestock headsper household or reducing the tax on livestockin isolated places not depending on thenumber of livestock per household. In thesame manner, building of irrigation system and

roads and providing assistance to improve thecapacity of pasture land could be encouragedalong with some form of tax incentives.

Sustainable development of animalhusbandry of our country has been dependentlargely on pastureland along with foddersupply. Producing more fodders and foragesis the one way to adapt to climat change thatcauses animal weight decline and thereduction of pastureland harvest, the trend isexpected to continue in the future.

Another main factor that causespastureland degradation is water supply incountryside. Mongolia has a substantialsource of ground and hypogene water. Grosswater scale is 34.6 sq.km per year, which isranked above the world average for waterscale per person. There are more than 4,000rivers and springs with total length of 67.000km. (Surface water of Mongolia, 2000) inMongolia and it enables to use 30 percent ofpastureland in warm seasons, but irregularand inadequate locations make it hard to beused with its full effeciency. Water network istight in mountainous region, but there are fewrivers and not enough water resources insouthern and southeastern part of the country.For centuries, Mongolians have been herdingcattles alongside with rivers and ground waterkeeping a balance not overgrazingpastureland capacity.

Due to ground water scarcity and notexpedient locations of wells, there are 10.7million abandoned and unused hectares ofpastureland. The most parts of it are in KhalkhGol, South Gobi, Bayankhongor and Gobi-Altai provinces and southern part of Khovdprovince inward from the national border andisolated from the municipal administration. 50percent of pastureland resources in Dornodprovince is not used and this is involved withwater supply in a direct and indirect way.Because of wrong locations of the wellsisolated from the must-be-used pastureland,

some pasturelands are crowded with cattlesand people in warm seasons and this impactsnegatively on pastureland proficiency. In some




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places, where there is a poor management ,oasis /water point/ itself turns out to be areason of pastureland degredation. In other words, following the enhancement of water

points and wells there emerge concentrationof cattle and people and it causes thegrassland become barren.

There is no doubt that if the lands withpasture resources are made usable throughirrigation, building stockyards and cattlepenon it and reserving fodder and forages, thiswould contribute to stabilizing pasturelandutility. In the southern part of the country,where there is a scarcity of pastureland,

pasturelands are located in the middle of theprovincial borders and are not used at all or used only in the year when there is a snowmantle. So, the exploration and developmentof pasture land resources should be focusedon such area.

Since herders are not able to repair andmaintain the wells themselves due to the lackof fund, it is necessary to provide herdsmenwith portable, compact, small-sized, electricity

and fuel efficient and easy to assemble water generators. One version to encourageherdsmen and individual’s contribution intorepairing and maintaining water points couldbe by letting them privatize water points bymaking affordable to them a long-termpreferential loan. /Lkhagvadorj, 2002/Introducing the mechanism of expense-sharing into livestock water supply is helpfulto increase the effeciency of state budget

expenditure and to encourage herdsmen todig wells.

There are 210 countries in the world, of which 10 percent are developed, 30 percentis developing and 60 percent isunderdeveloped nations. The most of thecountries with pastureland of which 40 percentis agricultural land are underdeveloped. Thismeans the key sector in their economy is nonintensified animal husbandry.

In the new millenium and in the era of globalization and climate change, the newtechnology needs to be introduced into the

animal husbandry sector to make itindependent from environment and weather through renovation and improvement of conventional methods. Today, all states

acknowledging and realize that it is impossibleto provide sustainable development withoutproviding a correlation of economicacceleration, human growth and naturalresource utility. Mongolia has formulated andimplemented sustainable development policyas the milestone of the state developmentconception.

It has formulated the base of settled andhalf-settled farming system in Mongolia which

requires that the nomadic animal husbandryto be transformed into intensified animalhusbandry. In the transition period into themarket economy, assessing the futuredevelopment approaches on animalhusbandry is essential. Scientists andresearchers consider the option to continuenomadic practice in animal husbandry in thecountryside, but at the same propose thatimproved farming systems could be better

employed in nearby populated centers.Intensifying animal husbandry and

“improving intensified animal husbandry” arebasically implying the same meaning, butthese two are differentiated by the means of realization. Intensification of animal husbandryrefers to the increase of income enchancingthe productivity of per livestock and alleviatingexpences on per head. However,improvement of intensified animal husbandry

refers to the development of the more fertileand efficient animals and running animalhusbandry based on intensified farmingsystem independent from environment. Interms of that, farming system had alreadybeen introduced successfully into Mongoliaresulting with the quality improvement of livestock and culturing of new breeds with highproficiency. Nevertheless, this type of systemwas largely dependent on state subsidy andexternal market development. However, thehighly subsidized system is no longer fit in thefree market economy. So, it is important tomake a plan coherent with realistic view taken




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on intensive farming system corresponding tothe current development trend.

In livestock breeding, we should use themethod of short run efficiency. For instance,artificial insemination gives an opportunity tofertilize cattle and increase the number ofheads with high quality in short term, thusimproving the quality of cattle. This method isused widely throughout the world. Specially,artificial insemination is used in the sheep,cow, and swine farms as the main fertilizingmethod. According to the statistics, 100 millioncow, ewe and sow are fertilized by artificialcopulation and Dutch uses artificial copulation

by 100 percent, Czech and Germany 80-90percent and Japan and Netherlands 60-75percent in copulating animals. The artificialcopulation is the new trend andbiotechnological approach used in animalhusbandry

One of the ways to improve adaptationcapacity of pastureland to climate change isto invent the new breed of fodder plantsresistant to drought, cold, pests and diseases,to restore degraded land and to createcultivated pastureland. The invention of newbreed of plant requires 12-15 years usingconventional method, but it could be shorten2-3 times using bio-engineering methods. Nowthere are only few new brands. The actionstaken on the plantation of drought resistantwild floras are extremely insufficient and thecreation of genetic fund and the issuesconcerning crop farming is stayed unresolved.

There are around 2,000 breed gene samplesof floras in the national genetic fund which isunsatisfactory.

No action is undertaken on improvementof regional pasture land. Therefore, the oldtechnologies used now don’t meet therequirements of climate change. The currentand urgent priorities of scientific andgovernment institutions are the building ofadaptation capacity through the invention and

cultivation of new breed of floras resistant toexpected climate change, the creation ofcultivated pastures and an introduction of newtechnology of restoring degraded lands.

For the last decade or since when herdersprivatized livestock there has been noprogress in methods to utilize and improvepasture land and preparing fodder. The inept

ones stayed without any livestock and nowthere is new terminology “poverty incountryside”.

Both methods, improving livelihoods ofherders through increasing the number ofheads of livestock or “going through stream”are improper strategies. However, it is gettingobvious from the projects and programs onpastoral and agricultural sector implementedby various international organizations that the

procedures like encouraging herders to workcollaboratively on family, group, relatives orprovincial partnership basis or formulatingdevelopment conception on providingsustainable growth of each herders’ householdare the more efficient approaches with provensuccesses.

Now there has been implemented manyprojects by variety of foreign organizations,funds and individuals aid on environmentaland rural development in Mongolia. This is avery positive sign that the majority of theprojects are targeted on the improvement ofpasture land management and water supply.However, poor correlation, coincidence orrepetition of activities result the low efficiency.Improving correlation between projects helpsto spend state budget on the most neededsectors and project funds more efficiently.

5.2.4. Agriculture

Climate change impact will cause thenoticeable reduction in the crop yield of thecentral region. So, adaptation to andprevention measures of climate changemust be taken at agricultural sector level aswell as the national with immediate start.

First of all, training and educating publicand the people in the agricultural sector onclimate change adaptation and mitigationmeasures are essential. Research onagriculture and animal husbandry should




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focus on the development of new varities of crops resistant to climate change. Possiblecounter actions to overcome climate changenegative impacts should be the prior

adaptation methods. Agricultural adaptationmethods are mainly addressed to the stateand private farming entities.

Reflecting the issues of adaptation toclimate change on the national economicgrowth policy makes actions possible. Theactions are to be taken at the national levelon mitigating and reducing climate changeimpacts are:

To plant perennials in abandoned cropfields unused since 1990. These, cropscan absorb more CO 2, which is helpfulto balance the reduction of minerals incrops due to climate change,particularly soil degradation

To, process and convert dung, manureand wastes from swine and cow farmsinto organic fertilizer could be the oneof the solutions. Due to climate change,

it is anticipated the decrease of mineralsubstances in soil.

To carry out research on planting wheatin winters

To improve agricultural industry throughestablishing agricultural researchinstitution focused on upgrading grainvariety, agro chemistry, sowing,technology, agricultural equipments,marketing, pests and diseases;

To improve the structure of informationexchange between local andinternational agricultural institutionsand farmers

To modify infrastructure using marketeconomy leverages

To legislate land utility and landownership

To improve agricultural managementTo train farmers and cultivators onclimate change

To complete a project on developingirrigated agricultural system andreplicate.

The measures that should be taken for farmers and entrepreneurs are describedbelow.

Sowing period: The base of sowing periodis determined by the favorable date to plantseeds. Considering the precipitation in July isthe major factor for ripping cultivated plants,specifically wheat grain in Mongolia, sowingshould be done as the precipitation seasonand seed sprouting period is coincided. Inagricultural regions of the country, the springsowing of wheat and potato are usually donein the first 10 days of May annually. However,due to the global warming, the season of sowing is likely to be altered and there shouldbe carry out research and experimentationon early sowing. As research result shows,the most favorable time for sowing is 15-20days ahead of the conventional sowing term.Hence, it should be done thorough calculationon it taking into account air temperature and

precipitation period, which are leading factorsof sowing, growing and ripping process of seed.

In other words, the current sowing systemof 1-2 year should be changed into 4-5 year.In the case of sowing the wheat seed once in2 years it is necessary to renew the seedseach time and fertilize the soil each year. Asfor potato, it is suitable to sow the potato oncein a 2 year. It helps to increase the foragechemicals in soil and to become more fertile.

Changing the variety of seed: In order toimprove adaptation capacity of seeds it isnecessary to develop the new variety of seeds with adaptable characteristics such asearly ripe and resistant to heat and diseases.Also, it is compulsory to start a survey onpossibility of planting winter wheat, to assessits efficiency and overall expenses, to preparequalified specialists and to provide requiredfacilities.






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E. Regarding to water quality:

1. Improving operational activity of water cleaning system

2. Reusing waste water 3. Improving control system of water

protection and water sanitation

4. Improving monitor ing sys tem of chemical and biological substances inwater

F. Regarding socio-economic issues onwater:

1. Educating public with different socialbackgrounds on water protection andwater sanitation methods

2. Changing public attitude towards water resource, usage and protection

3. Introducing water cleaning and filteringtechnology widely

4. Implementing the policy on providingequality on water use

5. Completing a thorough research onwater circumstances during flood,cloudburst and deluge

6. Improving methodology to prevent andprotect from flood

5.3. Adaptation Mechanisms

5.3.1. Implementation strategy of adaptation measures

The current priority is not the issue of if it is necessary to adapt to climate change,but how adapt to . The major par t of adaptation is targeted on studies andevaluations on cl imate change impactincluding evaluation on climate changeimpact, its’ harm and risks and formulationof methods and measurements to mitigate

it. Effecient methods and strategy areneeded in the first run in order to implementadaptat ion pol icy on cl imate change.

Implementation strategy must include thefactors related to legislation, structure,finance, human resource, science andmedia coherently with other policies and

st rategies . Also , i t i s v i ta l to assesssubjective and objective impediments toimplementation of strategy and to take intothe consideration how it is corelated withother socio-economic demands whileformulating methodology to overcome or facilitate these impediments.

Sustainable development of Mongolia islargely dependent on beneficient cooperationof environment and economy, while economy

is having a great deal with natural resourcessuch as pastureland, animal husbandry,agriculture and natural resource utility.Adaptation technology usually requires aconsiderable amount of investment at the first.On the other hand, the effeciency of adaptation measurements is not recognizedin the short run, it takes tremendous effort andtime to have a visible result.

Hence the first of all concerns are the

following:

1. Organizing broad activities on climatechange among decision makingauthorities, farmers, the people working inagricultural sector and entire nation suchas public awareness campaign and manyother kinds of trainings;

2. Providing herders and farmers wi thinformation and new technology;

3. Inventing technology and conductingsurveys and studies oriented to resolve theissues efficiently and to providesustainable agricultural development;

4. Taking management actions targeted onproviding coherence between surveys,monitoring and information

Except funding, the major factor of successful implementation of adaptation

procedures are ability, willingness andconcerns of the people involved withrealization process. The successful






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or institution; it needs integration andcollaboration and definite assessment of responsibility and duty line. It is compulsoryto fund and maintain the activities with high

efficiency, to formulate the present and futuremeasurements of adaptation, to monitor outcomes and benefits, to improve coherenceof government agencies and institutionsactions while implementing planned actions.

At the financial level:

Insufficient funding is preventingrealization of adaptation measurements.

Furthermore, the gap between planning andrealization process of the policy, for instanceexpensive means to implement adaptationmeasurements would be greater burdens onthe realization process. Ssuccessfulimplementation is dependent on the reliablesource of funding. Due to the banking systemin Mongolia being weak and there is notenough accumulation in the state budget, itmight be more beneficial to attract foreign

investments and aids to implement adaptationmeasurements. To get financial and technicaland technological assistance from outsideworld it must be taken additional activities

aimed to broaden a cooperation withinternational banks and organizations at thenational level.

At the social level :

Lack of individual’s insightfulness,conventional way of thinking and attitude andinformation scarcity for the public are allconsidered as the impediments to realizationprocess and to be overcome. The majority of the actions are taken by the people in theagricultural sector including herdsmen, so allmeasurements must meet their traditional and

ethical requirements and must based on their practical experiences. Hence, consumersshould benefit from the policies and strategiesimplemented at the national level, it is better to make the public involved in the policy or strategy formulating process from thebeginning and make them realize their responsibility and role in it. All adaptationmeasurements can’t be carried out at thesame time. Overcoming impediments tocertain implementation process help us toassess the most suitable means to overcomeimpediments to another process, thus we cansave time, money and effort.




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6.2. GHG Measurements inMongolia

In Mongolia, the actual concentration ofGHG in the atmosphere is being measured atthe Ulaan Uul located in Dornogobi aimag since 1992. This is a GHG monitoring siteestablished jointly with the NationalOceanographic and AtmosphericAdministration, USA, for GHG measurementin the atmosphere. The site is located in thesoutheastern side of Mongolia at the Mongoliandessert-steppe region far from anyanthropogenic sources.

The measurements show that the meanconcentrations of major GHGs are higher thanglobal average and increasing constantlyduring the observation period. In 2007, theannual average CO 2 concentration in theatmosphere measured at this station was 384.4ppm. Long term changes of major GHGsmeasured in Mongolia are shown in Figure 6.2 .

In the Figure 6.3 , the geographicaldistribution and long-term changes of CO 2

concentrations for 1992-2008 period areshown. Here, measurement results taken at

the Ulaan Uul site are shown in red color.

Figure 6.2. Long term Changes of Major GHGsMeasured in Mongolia

Figure 6.3. Geographical Distribution of CO 2

Concentration at Global and Mongolia Levels

6.3. National GHG Inventories

6.3.1. Energy Sector

The primary energy demand by sourcesis shown in Table 6.1 . Among the energysources, coal is the most important fuel inMongolia. Its share in 2005 was 66.3%. Nextwas petroleum, which accounts for 22.7%.Share of hydro and other renewable energywas only 11%.

Source: Energy Policy and Statistics in Northeast Asia.Country report for Mongolia, China, Korea and Russia,Dec. 2006. Korea Energy Economics Institute.

The Greenhouse Gas Emissions inventoryfor the energy sector has been prepared forthe period between 1990–2006, consideringemissions of the three main GHGs, namely,

Table 6.1. Total Primary Energy Mix in 2005

Fuel type

CoalPetroleumHydro and otherRenewablesTotal

Volume,

thousand toe 1,895.0648.0314.0

2,857.0

%

66.322.711.0

100.0

6. Mitigation Strategies to Climate Change



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carbon dioxide (CO 2,) methane (CH 4), andnitrous oxide (N 2O), as well as the indirectgases carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides(NO X), non-methane volatile organic

compounds (NMVOC), and sulfur dioxide(SO 2).

The inventory took into account theemissions resulting from fuel combustion aswell as the fugitive emissions resulting fromextraction of solid fuels. Activity data weretaken from the coal balances and data onimports of liquid fuels, which are annuallyissued by the National Statistical Office, theenergy balances prepared by the Energy

Research and Development Center, energydata released by the Ministry of Fuel andEnergy, and other relevant Ministries andorganizations of Mongolia.

CO 2 emissions from solid fuel combustionfor the period 1990–2006 are presented inTable 6.2 , and were calculated using thesector approach. The table shows that most

of the solid fuel or coal (60–80%) was usedin the energy industry for generation of electricity and heat in power plants andheating boilers during the period 1990–2006.

The energy sector is the most significantsource of CO 2 emissions in Mongolia. In 2006,CO 2 emissions from solid fuel combustionwere 7,925 Gg, of which the energy industry,manufacturing industry, transportation,commercial, residential, and agriculturalsectors emitted 79.8%, 3.8%, 2.1%, 2.7%,8.5%, and 0.1%, respectively (See Table 6.2).

CO 2 emissions from liquid fuels mainlyoriginate from combustion of importedgasoline, diesel oil, fuel oil, jet kerosene, andLPG. In 1990, CO 2 emissions from liquid fuelswere 2,540 Gg and declined to about 1,000Gg in 1995 and thereafter started to increase.In 2006, CO 2 emissions were 1,906 Gg whichaccounted for 19.5% of total of fuelcombustion (See Table 6.3 ). Figure 6.4shows the CO 2 emissions by fuel type for the

Table 6.2. CO 2 Emissions from Solid Fuel Combustion, Gg and %

Years

1990

1995

2000

2005

2006

Energy Industries

6,07463.7 5,44473.7 6,12384.6

6,34683.8 6,32879.8

Manufac- turing Industry 1,57616.5 97413.2 2843.9

1542.0 2893.6

Trans- portation

1561.6 1321.8 1001.41371.8 1652.1

Commer- cial

4124.32934.0 3144.32583.42112.7

Sectoral ApproachResiden- tial

8388.8 1902.6 2783.8 4996.6 6778.5

Agriculture

2172.3380.5 40.1250.3110.1

Other

2592.7 3144.31361.91512.0 2443.1

TOTAL

9,532100 7,385100 7,240100

7,570100 7,925100

Table 6.3 CO 2 Emissions from Liquid, Solid, and Biomass Fuel Combustion

Years

19901995

200020052006

Gg 2,540.001,020.2

1,320.61,703.71,905.7

%18.710.0

12.815.516.5

Gg 9,532.087,384.93

7,240.067,569.867,925.43

%69.972.2

70.068.968.5

Liquid Fossil Solid Fuel Biomass TOTALGg 1,559.001,825.00

1,782.401,713.101,737.40

%11.417.8

17.215.615.0

Gg 13,630.0810,230.1

10,234.110,986.711,568.5

%100.0100.0

100.0100.0100.0




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period of 1990-2006. The dramatic decreasein CO 2 emissions from fuel combustionobserved between 1990 and 1995 was mostlydue to socio-economic slowdown during the

period of economic transition.

the total emissions of GHGs from the energysector were estimated at 8,561 Gg of CO 2

equivalents in 2000, of which CO 2, CH 4, andN2O accounted for 95.49%, 2.84%, and 1.67%,

respectively. It shows that the value of meth-

CH 4 and N 2 O Emissions. The sources ofmethane emissions in the energy sector arisefrom fuel combustion activities and fugitiveemissions from coal mining. The main sourcesof N 2O emissions are fuel combustion activi-ties in the energy industry and the residentialsector. The values of CH 4 and N 2O emissionsfrom the energy sector are relatively low. In1990, CH 4 emissions from the energy sectorwere 18.38 Gg and decreased to 11.64 Gg in1995. CH 4 emissions have been increasingsince 1996 and reached 15.39 Gg in 2006.Fugitive emissions from coal mining accountedfor 50% of CH 4 emissions from the energy sec-tor in 1990, 42% of CH 4 emissions from theenergy section in 2000, and 46% of CH 4 emis-sions from the energy sector in 2006. The N 2Oemissions from the energy sector are very lowand were about 0.19 Gg during the period1995–2006.

Total CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O Emissions in CO 2 - Eqivalents (eq) Table 6.4 shows the total GHGemissions with CO 2 equivalents as the unit.By using the Global Warming Potentials (GWP)provided by the IPCC and its Second Assess-ment Report (“1995 IPCC GWP Values”) basedon the effects of GHGs over a 100-year timehorizon, the CH 4 and the N 2O emissions wereconverted into equivalents of CO 2. As a result,

ane and the nitrous oxide emis-sions are very low and the pre-dominant emission is CO 2 fromthe energy sector.

In order to identify the dynam-ics of GHG emissions and theircomparative changes, the emis-sions from the energy sector areestimated for the period 1990–

2006, as presented in Table 6.4.The results reveal that the totalemissions were reduced from12,529 Gg in 1990 to 8,710 Gg in1995 and then increased to

10,220 Gg in 2006. This means that the emis-sions decreased by 30% in 1995 as com-pared with the figure in 1990 and the emis-sions in 2006 increased by 14.7% as com-pared with the figure in 1995.

Indirect GHGs (NO X , CO, NMVOC) and SO 2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion Activi- ties. In addition to the main GHGs, many en-ergy-related activities generate emissions ofindirect GHG. Total emissions of NOx, CO, andNon-Methane Volatile Organic Compounds(NMVOC) from energy-related activities from1990 to 2006 are presented in Table 6.4 . In2006, about 44 Gg of NO X, 226.58 Gg of CO,and 34.74 Gg of MNVOC were emitted from

fuel combustion activities.Fuel combustion activities are the most sig-

nificant sources of NO X. Within fuel combus-tion activities, the most significant sources arethe energy industries and mobile sources. In2006, the energy industries and transportationsectors accounted for 88% (energy industries:47%; transport: 41%) of the NO X emissionsfrom fuel combustion activities in Mongolia.The major part of the CO emissions from fuel

combustion activities come from motor ve-hicles. In 2006, the total CO emissionsamounted to 226.58 Gg, 49% of which were

Figure 6.4. CO 2 Emissions in the Energy Sectorby Fuel Typ e




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produced by transportation sector. Another large contributor to the CO emissions is theresidential sector with small combustion equip-ment. In 2006, the residential sector produced47% of the total CO emissions from fuel com-bustion activities.

The most significant sources of MNVOCfrom fuel combustion activities are mobilesources and residential combustion (especiallybiomass combustion). In 2006, road transpor-tation and the residential sector accounted for

95% (road transportation - 59%, residential-36%) of the MNVOC emissions from fuel com-bustion activities in Mongolia. SO 2 is not a“greenhouse gas” but its presence in the at-mosphere may influence on climate. SO 2 emis-sions are directly related to the sulfur content

of fuel. The most significant source of SO 2emissions in Mongolia is coal. But sulfur con-tent of the coal in Mongolia is low. In 2006,almost 90% of the total emissions of SO 2

(45.84 Gg) was emitted from coal combustionactivities.

Table 6.4 Total CO 2, CH 4 and N 2O Emissions in CO 2-eq, Gg

Gas/SourceCO 2

A - Fuel Combustion Activities1. Energy Industries2. Manufacturing Industries & Construction3. Transportation4. Commercial and Residential5. Other (please specify)

International Bunkers*CO 2 Emissions from Biomass*CH4

A - Fuel Combustion Activities1. Energy Industries

2. Manufacturing Industries & Construction3. Transportation4. Commercial and Residential

B - Fugitive Emissions from Fuels1. Solid Fuels

N2 OA - Fuel Combustion Activities1. Energy Industries2. Manufacturing Industries & Construction3. Transportation

4. Commercial and ResidentialTOTAL

1990 12,07212,0726,5531,7971,7731,689260311,5593861911.68

3.787.56177.661951957171.331.09.33

2812,529

1995 8,4058,4055,5731,01089960931423.01,8252461471.26

2.313.78139.6099995958.924.86.23

258,710

2000 8,5618,5616,2013321,2056871367.01,7822451481.47

0.635.25140.4497975958.931.0 0.0 3

258,865

2005 9,2749,27463902191633881151151,7132991591.47

0.42 5.88152.20140.1140.162.058.931.0 0.0 6.2

24.89,635

2006 9,8319,83163673571874988245131,7373241741.47

0.42 6.72165.20150.36150.3665.158.931.0 0.0 6.2

27.910,220

*These values are presented for informational purposes only and are not included in the total emissions.

Table 6.5. NO X, CO, NMVOC and SO 2 emissions from the energy sector, Gg

Gas/SourceNO X

CONMVOCSO 2

199047.24

250.7938.7553.32

199534.77

178.9226.1841.71

200036.25

199.1129.9641.33

200541.62

211.4732.2343.78

200644.00

227.035.0046.00




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6.3.2. Industrial Sector

GHG emissions inventory in the industrialsector includes CO 2 and SO 2 emissions fromcement manufacturing, CO

2emissions from

lime manufacturing, and NMVOC emissionsfrom food and drink production. Other indus-tries such as iron and steel are too small tocalculate GHG emissions. In addition, thereare also sources of hydrofluorocarbons(HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfurhexafluoride (SF 6). The present contributionof these gases to the anthropogenic GHG issmall; however, because of their extremelylong lifetimes, many of them will continue to

accumulate in the atmosphere as long asemissions continue. In addition, many ofthese gases have very high global warmingpotentials.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Cement Production . In Mongolia, there are two largecement industries in Darkhan and Khutul. TheDarkhan Cement Factory was constructed in1968 as a state owned corporation underCzechoslovakian technical assistance withproduction capacity of 200,000 tons per year.The Hutul Cement Plant was constructed from1982 with financial and technical assistanceby former Soviet Union and started operationin 1985 with 2 wet kilns with a production ca-pacity of 500,000 tons. But during Mongolia’stransition period which began in 1991, theeconomy became sluggish and cement pro-duction decreased dramatically and remainsin weak statue.

In the transition period, Darkhan CementPlant was privatized to be owned by Erel Ce-

ment Factory. The Hutul Cement Factory isstill a completely state-owned company andis having trouble responding to significant chal-lenges and faces a critical management cri-

sis, all of which have resulted in a rapid de-cline in cement production at that facility. Ac-tivity data for cement production is availablein the Statistical Year Book of Mongolia. Theemission factor for cement production is0.4985 Gg of CO 2 /ton of cement according toIPCC methodology. The GHG emissions fromcement production are shown in Table 6.6 .The CO 2 emissions have been reduced by 3times from 1990 to 2006. The emissions ofCO

2from cement production in 2006 were es-

timated to be 70.19 Gg CO 2.

GHG Emissions from Lime Production . TheCO2 emissions from lime manufacturing for theperiod 1990-2006 are shown in Table 6.7 . TheCO 2 emissions from lime manufacturing in1990 were 93.7 Gg and reduced to 27.4 Gg in2004. But in 2005 the emissions were in-creased up to 73.9 Gg. The emissions of CO 2

from lime production in 2006 were estimated

to be 55 Gg CO 2.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Food and Drink Production . The estimates of emissionsfrom food and beverages were made for an-nual production of spirit, beer, meat, cakes,bread and animal feeds. The NMVOC totalemissions in 1990 were 1,205 Gg and reducedto 806.5 in 2006. In 2006, 75% of total NMVOCemissions were from spirit production and 20%were from bread production.

Emissions Related to Consumption of Ha- locarbons (HFCs, PFCs) and Sulphur

Table 6.6 Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Cement Production , Gg

YearCO 2

SO 2

1990219.740.13

199554.240.03

200045.710.03

200430.860.02

200555.780.03

200670.190.04

Table 6.7. CO 2 Emissions from Lime Manufacturing for the Period 1990-2006, Gg

YearCO 2

199093.73

199546.77

200033.67

200427.30

200573.89

200654.96






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The quantities of produced methane arelargely dependent on the type of manuremanagement system and ambienttemperature. Storing manure in lagoons or as

liquid manure produces significantly greaterquantities of methane compared to grazing onpasture or solid manure storage. The mainproducers of methane are cattle and swine.Sheep, goats, horses and poultry contributeonly a comparatively small portion of the totalemission of methane in Mongolia. The defaultemission factors are used for calculatingmethane emissions from manuremanagement. The results of calculatingmethane emissions from manuremanagement are shown in Table 6.11 .

cultivation in Mongolia has been very short.Historically, Mongolia has imported all of itschemical fertilizers (ammonium nitrate, doublesuper phosphate and potassium chloride),

although since 1990 fertilizers have not beenimported at all due to the existing economicconditions. Thus, chemical fertilizers are notapplied to crops. Only very small amounts offertilizer, i.e., sheep dung, have been used forvegetable and fruit crops.

Results of the calculation of GHGemissions from the agricultural sector areshown in the Table 6.11 .

Table 6.11 GHG Emissions from the Agricultural Sector, Gg

Years

1990

1995200020052006

EntericFermentation

CH 4

265.50

282.30287.79249.23280.72

ManureManagement

CH 4

8.69

9.309.137.408.19

Total

CH 4

274.19

291.60296.92256.63288.90

Methane Emissions from Domestic Livestock

CH 4

0.19

0.080.040.020.04

CO3.93

1.690.940.500.93

NO X

0.13

0.060.030.020.03

Cultivation ofSoils

N2O6.23

2.931.651.491.27

Field Burning ofAgriculture Residues

GHG Emissions from Field Burning of Agriculture Residues and Cultivation of Soils.Large quantities of agricultural residues areproduced from farming systems world-wide.Burning of crop residues in the fields is a

common agricultural practice, particularly indeveloping countries. It has been estimatedthat as much as 40 percent of the residuesproduced in developing countries may beburned in fields, while the percentage is lowerin developed countries. For Mongolianconditions, residues were calculated fromwheat and potatoes as these are the most thecommon crops in Mongolia.

Agricultural Soils. Emissions of N 2O from

agricultural soils are primarily due to themicrobial processes of nitrification and de-nitrification in the soil. The history of land

6.3.4. Changes in Land Use and Forestry

The IPCC Guidelines for NationalGreenhouse Gas Inventories include thefollowing activities in this sector: a) changesin forest and other woody biomass stocks, b)forest and grassland conversion to cultivatedland, c) on-site burning of forests, and d)abandonment of managed lands. Mongoliannational inventory includes emissions anduptake of GHG from all of these sourcesexcept on-site burning of forests.

1. Changes in forest and other woodybiomass stocks

2. Forest and grassland conversion

3. Abandonment of managed lands




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GHG Emissions from Changes in Forest and Other Woody Biomass . To calculate thenet uptake of CO 2, the annual increment of biomass in plantations, forests which are

logged or otherwise harvested, and the growthof trees and stocks of woody biomass areestimated. Wood harvested for fuel wood andcommercial uses is also estimated. The netcarbon uptake is then calculated. Themethodology for such calculations relies onthe following estimates:

total carbon content in annual growthof logged and planted forests;

the amount of biomass harvested;

wood harvested to carbon removed;and

the net annual amount of carbon uptakeor release.

Table 6.12. CO 2 Emissions from Changes in Forestry and other Woody Biomass Stocks

Year

19901995200020052006

Annual removal of CO 2 frombiomass increment and

forest plantation, Gg-197.19-214.98-214.79-130.97-139.81

CO 2 emissions from annualbiomass consumption from

Stocks, Gg2269.151,122.40835.01

1,003.051,103.78

Total CO 2 annual emissionsor removals, Gg

2071.95907.45620.21872.08963.96

Total forest area equals 18,291.8thousand ha, only 8.1 percent of total area,which is why Mongolia is considered as acountry with poor forest reserves. These

forests include about 140 species of trees,shrubs and woody plants, 84.0% of whichare coniferous and non-coniferous forest and16.0% of which are Saxaul forest. In order tocalculate the carbon uptake or removals, itis important to estimate the annual growthrate in “tons dm/ha/year” units for loggedforests and “tons/1,000 trees/year” units for planted trees based on local and internationaldata based analysis. On the basis of theresearch analysis from the Institute of Forestry at the University of Science andTechnology, the annual growth rate for loggedforests for Mongolia is generally accepted as0.4 tons dm/ha/year.

Figure 6.5. CO 2 Emissions from Changes in Forestry and other Woody Biomass Stocks




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The calculation of GHG emissions fromchanges in forestry and other woody biomassstocks shows that the annual removal of CO 2

from biomass increment and forest plantation

are much less than CO 2 emissions fromannual biomass consumption from stocks.

GHG Emissions from Forest and Grassland Conversion. For Mongolianconditions, this section of inventory includesCO 2 emissions from grassland conversion andland use for industrial mining activities. Thereis no practice in Mongolia of convertingexisting forests to other land uses, such asagriculture. The history of land cultivation for

agricultural in Mongolia is not very long.Mongolia began to cultivate considerable landarea only after 1958 by converting grasslandsinto croplands for cultivation. The area ofarable land continued to increase until the endof 1980s. For example, from 1958 to 19901,400 kha of grasslands have been converted.

The following coefficients for Mongolianconditions were assumed:

Biomass before conversion - 0.35tn.dm/ha;

Biomass after conversion - 0 (even ifall biomass is not fully cleared, thedefault value is 0);

Fraction left to decay - 1.0 (by defaultvalue); and

Carbon fraction in aboveground mass

- 0.5 (by default value).

GHG Uptakes in Abandonment of Managed Lands. Activity data for calculationof CO 2 uptake from abandoned land isavailable from Mongolian grasslands used in

statistics report and statistical yearbook ofMongolia. Abandonment of cultivated landshas accelerated recently as marginal landshave been taken out of production in therecent transformation period after the socialistsystem was converted to a market economy.Specifically, about 140 thousand hectares ofland have been abandoned on average duringthe last 16 years. These abandoned lands onlyrevert back to grasslands. The quantities ofCO

2uptakes from abandoned of managed

lands, are given in Table 6.13 for the entireGHGs inventory period. Analysis shows asignificant increase of CO 2 removals causedby abandonment of lands for the GHGinventory period.

Total GHG Emissions from Changes in Land Use and Forestry. Total emissions fromchanges in land use and forestry weredecreasing in the period from 1990 to 1993

and the balance became negative in 1994 dueto the increase in abandoned lands. Totalemissions were reduced rapidly from 1,887.4Gg in 1990 to 74.42 Gg in 1993 and theremovals are dominated from 1994. The CO 2

removals increased from 538.8 Gg in 1994 to2,082.6 Gg in 2006 due to an increase in theamount of abandoned lands and a reductionin the rate of conversion to cultivated land(Table 6.13 ).

Table 6.13. GHG Emissions from Changes in Land Use and Forestry

Years

199019941995200020052006

A Changes in Forestand Other WoodyBiomass Stocks

2,071.951030.98907.45620.21872.08963.96

Forest andGrassland

Conversion926.37393.98347.21266.6

225.29193.33

Abandonment ofManaged Lands

-1110.93-1963.79-2160.18-2646.87-3063.28-3239.87

TOTAL

1,887.39-538.83-905.52

-1,760.06-1,965.91-2,082.58






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Table 6.15 Methane Emissions from Wastes

Year

19901995200020052006

Methane emissionsfrom solid waste

disposal sites

Methane emissions fromdomestic and commer-

cial waste water

Methane emissions fromindustrial waste waterand sludge handling

TOTAL

%100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00

Gg 4.595.225.716.406.55

%40.5236.5937.1337.1937.10

Gg 1.861.912.122.382.43

%31.1527.7828.2028.1328.09

Gg 1.431.451.611.801.84

%28.3235.6334.6834.6934.81

Gg 4.595.225.716.406.55

Figure 6.6. Trend of Methane Emissions from the Waste Sector

6.3.6. Net GHG Emissions in Mongolia

The total CO 2-eq emissionsin Mongolia for the period 1990-2006 are presented in Figure6.7 . The calculation shows that

Mongolia’s net GHG emissionswere 22,535 thousand tons ofCO 2-eq in 1990. The net GHGemissions were reduced to15,044 thousand tons in 1995.The reduction of net GHGemissions is mostly due tosocio-economic slowdownduring the transition period fromsocialism to a market

Figure 6.7. Total GHG Emissions in CO 2-eq by gases for theperiod 1990-2006

economy. But during this period, the methaneemissions increased due to an increase inlivestock population.

Figure 6.8 shows that carbon dioxide isthe most significant of the GHG in Mongolia’sinventory making up 50.4 % (7,874 Gg) of




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the total CO 2-eq emissions in 2006 followedby methane which made up 41.8% (6,529Gg) of the total CO 2-eq emissions in 2006.The remaining gases (N 2O, HFCs) made up

7.8% of Mongolia’s CO 2 –eq emissions.

In addition to the main GHG addressedabove, many activities generate emissionsof indirect GHG. Total emissions of nitrogenoxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), non-CH 4 volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs)and sulphur dioxide (SO 2) from 1990 to 2006are presented in Figure 6.9a . The mainindirect GHG is carbon monoxide which isemitted mostly from fuel combustion. In 2006,about 44 Gg of NO X, 227.50 Gg of CO and

35.55 Gg of MNVOC were emitted fromoverall activities. Emissions of SO 2 aredirectly related to the sulphur content of fuel.

6.3.7. Sectoral GHG Emissions in Mongolia

In 2006, Mongolia’s net GHG emissionswere 15,628.00 gigagrams (=1,000 tons) (Gg)in CO 2-eq. The energy sector (includingstationary energy, transportation and fugitiveemissions) was the largest source of GHGemissions comprising 65.4% (10,220.09 Gg)of total emissions ( Figure 6.9b) . The secondlargest source of GHG emissions was the

agricultural sector (41.4%). For the changesin land use and forestry sector, the total CO 2

removals were more than total CO 2 emissionsat 2,083.6 Gg (13.3%) in 2006 due to anincrease in the area of abandoned lands andan reduction in newly cultivated land. Other relatively minor sources currently includeemissions from industrial processes and thewaste sectors.

Figure 6.9a. Indirect GHG Emissions for theperiod 1990-2006

Figure 6.8. Total GHG Emissions in CO 2-eqby gases in 1990 and 2006

Figure 6.9b. Contribution to Total CO 2-eqEmissions by Sector for 1990 and 2006




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Table 6.16 . shows that the single largestemitter of carbon dioxide is the energysector. In 2006, 98% of carbon dioxide

emissions were from energy sector whichincludes all types of fuel combustionactivities.

Table 6.16. Main GHG by sectors in 1990, 2000 and 2006

GHG source and sink 1990 EnergyIndustrial processesAgricultureLUChFWasteTotal2000 EnergyIndustrial processesAgricultureLUChFWasteTotal2006 EnergyIndustrial processesAgricultureLUChFWasteTotal

CO 2emissionsGg12071.00313.47 2998.33 15383.61

8561.0079.38 886.83

9526.88

9831.00125.15 1157.29

11113.54

CO 2RemovalsGg0.00

1110.93 1110.93

0.00

-2648.87 -2648.87

0.00

-3239.87 -3239.87

CH4

Gg18.380274.38 4.59297.35

11.630296.96 5.71314.30

15.390.00288.94 6.55310.88

N2OGg0.2306.24006.47

0.1901.65001.84

0.210.001.270.000.001.48

HFCsGg 0.0104

0.0104

0.15

0.15

0.588

0.588

CO 2-eqGgCO 2-eq12520.08327769518879622534.51

8865.362766748-176212014246.77

102208926462-2083.58137.5515628

The main contributor to the total methaneemissions is the agricultural sectorcontributing about 92-93% of the totalmethane emissions. The second biggest

contribution comes from the energy sectorwith about 5-6%, while all other sectorscontribute less then 2% of the total

Table 6.17. Total CO 2-eq Emissions by Sector for 1990 and 2006

SectorsEnergyIndustryAgricultureLUChFWasteTotal

1993988210967247410516894

199012529327769518879622534

19911221419972107479420464

199210505146700646610218225

199485821296932-53910215206

199587101666764-90611015044

199685661427167-88210915002

199783711487420-141310814635

199883681717659-88110915426

SectorsEnergyIndustryAgriculture

LUChFWasteTotal

200294184505338

-138612413944

199984512077716

-135612115129

200088652766748

-176212014247

200190632756040

-134712414155

200390237295240

-178812713331

200492469725518

-211213113755

200596358625854

-196613414519

2006102208926461

-208313815628




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The total GHG emissions in Mongolia arecomparatively low, but the per capita rate ofGHG emissions is relatively high comparedto other developing countries because of the

Table 6.18 Per capita GHG enissions in CO 2-eq

GHG Emissionsin CO 2-eq, GgPopulation,thousandpersonsPer capita GHGemissions, ton/ person

200114155

2446

5.80

199022534

2103

10.7

199515044

2249

6.7

200014247

2407

5.92

200213944

2475

5.63

200313331

2504

5.26

200413755

2533

5.43

200514519

2562

5.66

200615628

2595

6.02

6.4. Mitigation Options and Measures

mitigation options were identified accordingto case studies and analyses of the inventoryof GHG emissions and emission projectionsas shown in Table 6.19 .

cold continental climate, the use of fossil fuelsfor energy and the low efficiency of fuel andenergy.

Table 6.19. Brief Description of the Studies on Greenhouse Gas Mitigation

Name of Project

U.S. Country StudiesProject

Asia Least-costGreenhouse gasAbatement Strategy(ALGAS) Project

Climate ChangeNational ActionProgram

Brief DescriptionThe U.S. Country Studies Project for the energy sector and land use and land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) was the first study on GHG mitigation options.In the energy sector, long range energy alternative planning (LEAP) was usedto estimate the amount of GHG emission reductions. In the LULUCF sector, theComprehensive Mitigation Analysis Process (COMAP) model was used to identifymitigation options (1995-1996).

The ALGAS project identified the primary areas of GHG mitigation based on aninventory of GHG emissions and the results of emission projections. Followingthe identification of the primary areas, a list of potential mitigation options in theenergy sector was developed. The list of options was screened using qualitativecriteria. The EFOM-ENV, an energy sector optimization model, was used incorrelation with a bottom-up energy demand accounting model, MEDEE/S-ENV,to develop a least cost scenario for the reduction of GHG emissions.The Climate Change National Action Program includes GHG mitigation studies.The aim of the mitigation assessment was to provide policy makers with anevaluation of those technologies and practices that can both mitigate climatechange and also contribute to national development objectives. The main focusof this study was on the energy, transportation and forestry sectors.


6.4.1 GHG Mitigation Potentials

Options and opportunities for greenhousegas mitigation in Mongolia were identifiedduring preparation of the Initial NationalCommunication (1998 to 2000). These



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Mongolia’s InitialNationalCommunication

Climate ChangeMitigation Measures:Assessment of Technology Transfer Needs in Mongolia’sEnergy Sector

Regional

Cooperation on theKyoto Mechanisms(CDM/JI)

Mongolia’s Initial National Communication was prepared within the GEF ClimateChange Enabling Activity in 2001. In compliance with its UNFCCC commitment,Mongolia conducted a mitigation analysis to provide policy makers with anevaluation of technologies and practices that can both mitigate climate change

and contribute to national development objectives, and to identify policies andprogrammes that could enhance their adoption.The objectives of the Climate Change Mitigation Measures assessment are asfollows: to make a baseline survey to identify the priority technology needs inthe energy sector of Mongolia that are conducive to addressing climate changeand minimizing its negative impacts; and to develop project outlines that meettechnology needs in the energy sector most cost-effectively in order to implementthe Climate Change Action Program.Regional Cooperation on the Kyoto Mechanisms (CDM/JI): Enhancing theEnvironmental Cooperation in Northeast Asia in a New Dimension.The focus of

this project is on sustainable development. Northeast Asia has a tremendousopportunity to cooperate in and benefit from the win-win situation afforded bythe Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI)systems set out in the Kyoto Protocol.

Energy Sector

The analysis of GHG emissions showsthat most GHG emissions in Mongolia arefrom coal combustion. This means that GHGemission mitigation policy should focus on

the reduction of coal use through coalsubstitution. In particular, there isconsiderable scope to replace fossil fuels byother clean energy resources such asrenewable energy resources.

Renewable Energy Resources

Mongolia has considerable renewableenergy resources including hydropower andsolar energy. It has significant hydropower potential with 3,800 rivers and streams. Based

on this potential, the number of smallhydropower plants has been increasingduring recent years. Large scale hydroplants are being identified.

Hydropower provides a clean alternativesource of energy with no direct GHG

Figure 6.10. Map of Hydro Energy Resources in Mongolia




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emissions. It contributes to the reduction ofGHG emissions by displacing the electricpower that would otherwise have beengenerated by coal-fired electric power plants.

In Mongolia, two hydropower plants, one witha capacity of 11 MW and another with 12 MW,operate as approved Clean DevelopmentMechanism (CDM) projects reducing GHGemissions and generating Certified EmissionReductions (CER).

Mongolia has considerable wind energyresources. In the steppe and Govi regions theannual average wind speed is 4 m/s. Forty-seven percent of Mongolia is classified as

territory with the “highest possibility” for windenergy installations. In particular the southernprovinces have wind regimes of 150 -200 W/ m2 with wind durations of 4,000-4,500 hoursper year.

It has been estimated that more than 10%of the country has good-to-excellent potentialfor wind energy applications on a commercialscale. Several wind farm projects with 30–50MW capacity in various areas of Mongolia are

being considered. The objective of theseprojects is to generate electricity using windenergy sources and to reduce the need forelectricity generation by the coal-fired power

plants that currently supply the Central Gridof Mongolia, thereby reducing GHGemissions.

The total solar energy resources,evaluated as the annual solar radiation on theentire national territory, have been calculatedto potentially achieve 2.2 x 10 12 kWh. Thepotential solar energy varies from 1,200 kWh/ m 2 /y to 1,600 kWh/m 2 /y in the different regionsof Mongolia.

The installation of large scale, carbonfree, renewable electricity, such as very largescale PV (VLC-PV ) systems in the Goviregion of Mongolia, may contribute to bothprotecting against air pollution and supportingregional development. It is possible toimplement pilot research projects in the areasalong the railways and consider VLC-PVs inthe Mongolian Gobi Desert in the future.

Figure 6.11. Map of Wind Energy Resources in Mongolia








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contribute to a high rate of carbon dioxide(CO 2) release when measured on a per capitabasis. The estimate for national GHGemissions in 2006 is 15.6 million tons or

roughly 6.02 tons per capita. This estimate islarger than that for per capita GHG emissionsin the great majority of developing countriesand exceeds the world average.

The country’s pattern of energy use isdetermined by its economic growth, large landarea, climate regimes, low population densityand significant indigenous resources. Coal,the fossil fuel that emits the highest amountof GHGs per unit of energy, is abundant, with

explored reserves estimated at 24 billion tons.Coal contributes the bulk of Mongolia’s energyproduction (80%); this includes power generation and heat. Oil products (mainlydiesel oil) account for the remainder.Currently, Mongolia has no domestic oil or natural gas production, and all oil products areimported, mostly from Russia. Petroleumproducts account for 19 percent of the totalcommercial energy use and are consumed

mostly in the transportion sector. Apart fromtraditional biomass (fuel wood and dung), useof renewable energy is in the developmentstage in Mongolia. The non-commercialprimary energy sources are fuel wood andanimal dung. In households, wood and dungare used for cooking and heating.

The existing power sector of Mongoliaconsists of the Central Energy System (CES)with five coal-fired Combined Heat and Power

(CHP)plants and local provincial energy serviceenterprises. Overall, the power sector of Mongolia has a net installed capacity of about1,066.0 MW.

Extraction condensing turbines are used inthe CHP plants. Part of the steam is extractedfrom the turbines to meet heat requirements(steam and hot water) and the remaining part of the steam flow is cooled and condensed byusing cooling water. Isolated power systems

range from 60 kW in the smallest systems to7.2 MW diesel engine generators. Both hot water and space heating are supplied by heat only

boilers (HOBs). Boiler capacities range from0.4 to 10 Gcal/h. Due to harsh, cold climateconditions in winter, heat is an essentialenergy use. Heat supplies account for 40%

of gross energy consumption.The previous studies regarding the energy

sector identified the following mitigationoptions:

1. Energy supply sector

Increase renewable options- Hydropower plants- Wind farms- PV and solar heating

Improve the efficiency of heating boilers- Improve the efficiency of existing HOBs- Install boilers with the new design and

high efficiency- Convert st eam boi le rs in to smal l

capacity thermal power plants

Improve household stoves andfurnaces

- Modernize existing household stovesand furnaces

- Imp lement th e n ew desi gn fo r household stoves and furnaces

- Change fuels for household stoves andfurnaces

Improve coal quality- Coal beneficiation- Apply effective mining technology and

facilities, including selective mining anddewatering system coal handling plants

Improve CHP plants- Improve efficiency- Reduce internal use

2. Energy Demand Sector

District heating and buildingenvironment

- Make building insulation improvements- Implement improvements of district

heating system in buildings

- Improve lighting efficiencyIndustry

- Improve housekeeping procedures




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- Implement motor efficiency improve-ments

- Improve lighting efficiency- Adopt technology changes (e.g., dry-

processing for cement industry, etc.)Regarding the GHG mitigation assessment

for the energy sector, the most detailedanalysis was done by the Asia Least CostAbatement Strategy (ALGAS) project. Theanalysis includes the identification of theprimary areas of GHG mitigation based on theGHG emissions inventory and projections ofthe inventory. Following the identification ofthe primary areas a long list of potential

mitigation options in the energy sector wasdeveloped and screened using qualitativecriteria. The energy flow optimization modelfor environment (EFOM-ENV), was used incorrelation with a model for energy demandand energy efficiency for environment(MEDEE/S-ENV), to develop a least costscenario for the reduction of GHG emissions.The analysis of the screening matrix showedthat many of the potential options are not yet

technically feasible in Mongolia. Options thatconsider efficiency improvements andutilization of unused potential are encouraged.

The options having the largest potential forGHG mitigation are listed below::

Coal Beneficiation;

Combustion Efficiency Improvement;

Reduction of Station’s Own Use(Existing Plants);

Reduction of Transmission andDistribution Losses;

Photovoltaics (PV);

Small Wind Generators;

Biomass Gasifiers;

Small Hydroelectric projects;

Cogeneration;

Motor Efficiency Improvement;Fuel Consumption EfficiencyImprovement;

Efficient Coal Stoves;

Efficient Lighting; and

Building Insulation Improvement.

A taxonomy of options was developedthrough the screening of the potentialmitigation options. Carbon dioxide emissionsdepend on fuel characteristics, and the mosteffective way to abate CO 2 emissions isthrough the rational use of energy. Therefore,mitigation options to reduce CO 2 emissionsfrom the energy sector considered in theassessment may be grouped into two majorcategories: (1) energy conservation or

efficiency improvements; and (2) substitutingless carbon-intensive energy sources forthose that are more carbon-intensive.

For each potential mitigation option, thefollowing technical data/characteristics weredeveloped.

Scope and range of the application;

Availability / commercial readiness;

Potential for GHG mitigation/ abatement;

Current constraints in Mongolia that willinhibit the application of the optionincluding financial, institutional, policy,information or other constraints.

Supply Side

Coal Beneficiation. Mongolia hassubstantial coal reserves. Coal will continueto be the most economic fuel for power andheat generation in the Central Energy System(CES) and for heat generation in provincialcenters. There exists no provision for coalpreparation at mine sites, and as a result thereis no quality control in the supply system.Approximately 70 percent of coal istransported more than 150 km by railway onaverage. Coal quality often does not meet theminimum standard requirements, and in manycases, emergency situations at the powerstations are caused by the low quality of coal.Better quality control at the mines andinstallation of “selective” crushers and




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screening equipment have beenrecommended to reduce the amount of rockand inert material transported to the power stations. Better management of mine drainage

systems is necessary to reduce the moisturecontent of the coal. Coal washing at the minesite is now common in many countries.

Coal washing can be introduced at thebiggest coal mines in Mongolia, which areBaganuur and Shivee-Ovoo. This option istechnically feasible; there are few institutionalbarriers. This option is already included in theMongolian Environmental Action Plan. Thecoal benefication plan will result in local

benefits such as the reduction of ash disposalin residential areas, less SOx emissions andincreased coal transportation efficiency.Combustion of high quality coal at the power plants will increase gross efficiency of power generation and reduce the station’s own use.

Station’s “Own Use”. All the thermal power plants in Mongolia are designed for cogeneration; they provide base loadelectricity and hot water for district heating.

Steam from industry is also processed for these purposes. The station’s own use of energy is very high in thermal power plants.This high consumption of electricity for “ownuse” can be explained mainly by the low coalquality which results in much longer coal milloperating hours and by the high leakagelosses in the pipeline which results in highelectricity consumption by the pressurizingpumps. Investigations carried out to-date

indicate that through the installation andproper maintenance of control equipment andimproved housekeeping procedures, such aseliminating leaks, repairing insulation andrecovering condensate and boiler blow down,savings in a station’s own use of up to 5percent of the gross generation can beachieved. This option is highly feasible, andin fact its implementation has already started.The emissions reduction impact of this optionis assessed to be in the medium range, andits local benefits are considered to be high.

Electricity Transmission/Distribution LossReduction. The transmission system of theMongolian Central Energy System consists of 220 kV and 110 kV overhead lines. The grid

is connected to the Siberian and Russian gridby a 220 kV transmission line. The distributionsystem consists of 110 kV overhead lines thatmainly feed secondary substations. Total linelength of the 220 kV system is estimated tobe about 2,000 km, and line length of the 110kV system is estimated to be 2,500 km.Voltages of 35 kV, 10 kV, and 6 kV are usedin distribution networks that supply industrialand distribution stations, while 0.4 kV are usedin networks supplying residential and other public consumers. The electricity losses inboth the transmission and distribution lines arehigh.

The reduction of losses in the electricitytransmission/distribution system involvesredesigning and/or rehabilitating the existingold transmission/distribution lines, installingmore energy efficient equipment on poles andin power substations and replacing old and

inefficient pole-mounted transformers. On theother hand, nontechnical losses could bereduced through strict monitoring andeliminating electricity theft.

District Heating System Losses. Districtheating systems exist in all major cities andtowns in Mongolia. Existing district heatingsystems use constant flow technology whichis not flexible. Losses in the heat distributionsystems are high, and urgent measures, such

as minimizing leakage, replacing valves andreducing radiation losses, are required.Building losses are also high and residentialconsumers have no means of regulatingtemperatures.

It is necessary to convert the districtheating systems into a variable flow systemwhich would result in a substantial reductionin peak demand. Results of the Ulaanbaatar Heat Rehabilitation Projects show that the total

loss (end-use heat, hot water and thermallosses) could be reduced by 1,121 TJ/year.




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This option is highly feasible in Mongolia.The emissions reduction impact of this optionis high, and the local benefits can besubstantial. A district heating system

rehabilitation project has already been startedin Ulaanbaatar.

Combustion Efficiency. This optionconsiders the improvement of combustionefficiency in small boilers and furnaces. Smallboilers and furnaces, usually owned by localgovernments, are supplying public facilitiessuch as hospitals and schools, and becauseof obsolete technology and the lack of qualitycontrol and maintenance skills, the gross

efficiencies of these boilers and furnaces arecomparatively low, about 40 to 60 percent.Some independent study results show that theefficiencies of these boilers and furnaces canbe increased up to 75 to 80 percent by simpleretrofitting. Replacement of these boilers andfurnaces by new modern ones is also a viableoption.

Technologies and measures involved inthis option include using high efficiencyburners and combustion monitoring andcontrol systems and improving basichousekeeping practices. It has been assumedthat it is possible to increase boiler grossefficiency up to 80 percent with an averageadditional investment of $50/kW. This optionis considered to be feasible. The Governmentof Mongolia has a policy of encouragingenergy savings and resource conservation.The emissions reduction impact of this option

is assessed as high, and its local benefits arealso high.

Hydropower Development. A number ofpromising hydropower sites have beenidentified in Mongolia. Hydropowerdevelopment is one of the best options forelectricity supply to remote and limiteddemand consumers. Currently Taishir (11 MW)and Durgun (12 MW) hydropower plants arestarting operations, and more than 20

hydropower sites have been identified, withcapacities ranging from 5 MW to 110 MW. Thisoption is moderately feasible in Mongolia. The

Government of Mongolia has in place a policyto develop small and medium sized hydroprojects. Therefore, the policy barriers are low.The emissions reduction impact of this option

is high, and its local benefits are expected tooutweigh the negative impacts.

Photovoltaic (PV) Solar System. Mongoliais located in a region with abundant sunshine,typically between 2,250 to 3,300 hours eachyear. However, the current informationavailable for designing a solar energy systemis not considered to be accurate or complete.Possible targets for the application of solarenergy are the families of nomadic herdsmen.

During the last ten years, different kinds ofsmall solar-electric units have been introducedinto rural households. PV power generationis a mature technology for small powerapplications. The PV market is currently verysmall, but the market growth has been 25percent per year internationally. The PVsystems have been shown to be the lessexpensive option when compared to smallgasoline generators. At present, small-scale

PV systems (10 to 1,000 W) are used inremote areas. It has been assessed that inMongolia PV power systems are competitivewith conventional energy sources for smallpower applications for nomadic families.

Wind Generator. The economic feasibilityof this option for Mongolia is currently beingassessed. Among renewable energytechnologies, wind energy has proven to bethe most competitive in terms of cost for the

bulk power market internationally. Mongoliahas very little experience with wind energy.There have been few systematic assessmentsof the potential of wind energy resources inMongolia. According to the availablemeteorological data prepared by the NationalRenewable Energy Center, the annualaverage wind speed in the southeastern partof the country is in the range of 4 to 5 m/s.This is marginal in terms of the potential cost.As in the case of solar energy, there isconsiderable potential to supply nomadiclivestock herders in the Gobi Desert with smallportable wind generation systems. Renewable




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energy development is included in theGovernment Action Program as the principalway to provide electricity to remote areas andnomadic families. Turbine generators (100-

150 kW) could be placed in provincial centersin the southern part of Mongolia. The mostpromising sites should get priority in order toestablish the technical and economicfeasibility of operating 100-150 kW windturbine generators in parallel with existingdiesel generators. Also, large scale wind farmprojects could be implemented in Mongolia.

Bioelectricity System (Biomass Gasifier Technology). Bioelectricity has been shown as

a potential and feasible option to meet all thecurrent and projected electricity requirementsof rural areas in the majority of developingcountries. It is possible to install sustainablebiomass-based electricity generation systemsin island provinces, instead of installingexpensive power generating assets togenerate all the electricity required.Bioelectricity systems could be installed in anyrural location where biomass can be grown

and harvested. It is possible to set upelectricity generation units having capacitiesranging from 20 kW to several megawatts.Electricity can be generated year-round and24 hours a day. The average electricitydemand in remote villages in Mongolia isestimated to be around 150 to 250 kW.Approximately 50 remote villages located inthe northern part of Mongolia, from a total of 384 rural villages, are potential candidates for the installation of biomass gasifiers.

End-use/Demand Side Energy Efficiency Measures

Lighting Efficiency Improvement. Thisdemand-side management option concernsreplacing inefficient incandescent light bulbs(ILBs) with energy efficient compactfluorescent lamps (CFLs). CFLs provide thesame amount of light as an incandescent lightbulb but use roughly 70 percent less electricity.

Although CFLs are more expensive than ILBs,they are more economical on a life cycle basisdue to savings in electricity costs. The

economic feasibility of this option for Mongoliais currently assessed to be in the mediumrange due to the fact that it is financiallyaccessible only to a limited number of

consumers. Policy barriers are assessed tobe low because the Government has a policyof encouraging energy savings. The emissionsreduction impact of this option is assessed tobe in the medium range.

Efficient Coal Stoves. Mongolia has atotal of 526,000 households, 60 percent of which use small coal stoves. Each householdin every soum (administration unit) and in thesuburbs of cities uses 4 tonnes of coal and

2.5m 3 of fuel wood annually. The final end-use efficiency of coal stoves is low, around25 to 30 percent. It is estimated that theefficiency of coal stoves can be improved upto 45 percent by retrofitting existing stovesor by replacing them with efficiently designedones. The local pollution benefit of this optionis large, and it is this aspect which makes thisoption an attractive one. The emissionsreduction impact of this option is assessed to

be in the medium range.Building Insulation Improvement . In

Mongolia, all buildings have space heatinginstallations. Almost 65 percent of the totalenergy demand of households and 90 percentof the total energy used in the service sector are for space heating. A study on heat lossesfound that nearly 40 percent of heat is lostfrom houses and buildings. The heat lossesoccur through windows, walls, and doors;

design and construction of most multifamilybuildings in bigger cities are very similar tobuildings found in many places of the former Soviet Union.

A study of local building standards foundthat heat demand in multifamily buildingscould be reduced by about 60 percent. Thefeasibility of this option for Mongolia iscurrently assessed to be in the high to mediumrange. Policy barriers are assessed to be low

because the Government has a policy of encouraging energy savings. The emissions




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reduction impact of this option is assessedto be in the medium range.

Motor Efficiency Improvement in Industry.Industry is one of the largest consumers ofelectricity in Mongolia. Motors and pumps arethe main consumers of electricity in theindustrial sector. Existing motors and pumpsare old, and their efficiencies are very low. Anenergy audit study for the principal industriesshows that there is the the potential to improvemotor and pump efficiency by more than 20percent. The emissions reduction impact ofthis option is assessed to be high.

Vehicle Fuel Consumption Efficiency Improvement. Most vehicles operating inMongolia are old and, therefore, unitconsumption of fuel is high. The regularcontrol of exhaust and fuel consumption doesnot exist. The results of various studies showthat there is a potential to reduce unit fuelconsumption by about 10 to 20 percent byinstalling simple devices, tuning engines, andperforming proper regular maintenance. Thefeasibility of this option for Mongolia iscurrently assessed to be in the high range.Policy barriers are assessed to be lowbecause the Government has a policy ofencouraging energy savings. The emissionsreduction impact of this option is assessed

to be in the medium range. Local benefits ofthis option could be substantial.

Summary of Mitigation Options in the Energy Sector

To provide guidance in designing nationalclimate change mitigation strategies, theALGAS study generated cost of emissionsreduction initiative (CERI) curves. CERIcurves are developed to help policy makersand other interested groups understand theeconomic impact of choosing different sets ofGHG mitigation policies and options. A CERIcurve is estimated by determining thedifference in costs between a baseline(reference) scenario and an alternativescenario; this difference is referred to as anincremental costs. These curves represent aprojection of a country’s future cumulative netGHG emissions over time without theimplementation of a set of GHG mitigationinterventions (baseline) versus with theimplementation of a set of GHG mitigationinterventions (alternative). An integratedapproach was adopted in the energy sectorusing the EFOM-ENV model. The mitigationcost and mitigation potential for each of theGHG abatement options are shown in Table6.21 .

Table 6.21. Mitigation Costs and Mitigation Potential for each GHG Abatement Option

GHG Abatement Options

Lighting efficiency improvementBuilding Insulation ImprovementDistrict heating system loss reductionSmall Combustion Efficiency ImprovementVehicle fuel consumption efficiency improvementElectricity Transmission loss reductionBiomass energy systemMotor efficiency improvementCoal beneficationWind power system

Photovoltaic Solar SystemHydro power Development

IncrementalMitigation Cost

$ / tonne CO 2

-2.48-1.73-1.71-1.43-0.39-0.33-0.220.312.262.41

4.4610.32

Mitigation Potential (Cumula-tive Emission Reductions)

millions of tons of CO 2

4.359.08

12.746.34

12.773.310.70

21.5310.170.36

0.191.47

Source: ALGAS Mongolia, Manila Philippines, 1998




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Industry Sector

The following GHG mitigation options(technologies) were selected on the basis of mitigation studies [20]

Motor efficiency improvements: Motor systems use about 70% of industrialelectricity in Mongolia. These motor systems are often less efficient than theones in industrialized countries. Motor efficiency improvement technologyincludes using energy-efficient motors andvariable speed drives; improving operationand maintenance; correcting previousover-sizing; and improving mechanicalpower transmission and efficiency of equipment that is driven. It is estimatedthat the electricity savings potential is 20%of the electricity currently used by industrialmotors.

Good housekeeping practices and energy management: Mongolian industry hassignificant potential for saving energythrough improvement of energy use and

management. The energy savingspotential by “easy” savings (goodhousekeeping practices that minimize theuse of heat and electricity and energymanagement) is 15-25 % with a costrecuperation period of less than 1 year.

Steam saving technology (steam traps,heat recovery, pipe insulation, etc.): Thistechnology includes the rehabilitation of steam systems, including the repair of

steam traps, insulation and valves and thereturn of condensate. It is assumed that30% of all industrial heat demand is steamconsumption. Industry’s steam savingspotential is estimated to be 25%.

Introducing dry-processing in the cement industry : Changing the wet-processing of cement to dry-processing saves a largeamount of energy. This has been provenby the feasibility study, which was

conducted within the framework of theClean Development Mechanism project toreduce GHG emissions. It is estimatedthat 25% of all industrial coal is used for cement production. Wet-processing of cement requires 1,500 to 1,700 kcal/kg-clof heating whereas dry processing mayrequire 1,000 to 1,200 kcal/kg-cl. This boilsdown to a savings potential of 40% of thecoal consumption in the cement industry.

The most attractive CO 2 emissionreduction options are implementing goodhousekeeping procedures (including energymanagement), improving motor efficiency andusing dry-processing for cement production.CO 2 emission reduction potentials for selectedoptions are given in Table 6.22 .

Table 6.22. CO 2 Mitigation Potential for Selected Options in Industry Sector

GHG Mitigation options

Motor efficiency improvementSteam saving technology(steam traps, heat recovery,pipe insulation)Good housekeeping(including energy management)Dry process of cement production

Total

Energy saving

potential in2020, GJ/year

4279.3791.37

2989.62

3722.37

11782.7

Total system

cost reduc-tion*1000 US$

-7,473.00-7,346.00

-330,098.00

420.00

Cumulative

CO 2 emissionreductions,thousand ton5,540.001,370.00

5,670.00

3,410.00

15,990.00

Specific

mitigationcost, US$/tonne CO 2

-1.35-5.36

-58.21

0.12

* Difference between total system costs of alternative scenario and baseline scenario.Source:Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Potentials in Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar, 2000.






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but also in terms of land use and sanitation,especially in Ulaanbaatar (UB). Almost half of Mongolia’s population lives in the capitalcity. At present, the total amount of waste

generated in UB is estimated to be 552.8 tonsper day. Of this waste, 321.6 tons (58.2% of the total amount) is thought to be brought tofinal disposal sites, while 21.4% is dumpedillegally along the main streets of suburbs or in open space. The recycling rate wascalculated at 3.7%. More than half of it iscollected and recovered by waste pickerseither on the streets or at the disposal sites.According to population projections and theexpected economic growth rate, the estimatedamount of waste that will be generated in thefuture is as follows: in 2010, 588.2 tons/day;in 2015, 620.2 tons/day; and in 2020, 641.4tons/day.

All collected waste in the city of Ulaanbaatar is disposed in three landfills(Dari-Ekhiin Ovoo, Ulaan Chuluut andMoringiin Davaa) without any further processing. The management of municipal

waste is emerging as a problem of primeimportance. The Ulaan Chuluut disposal siteis the largest disposal site in Ulaanbaatar andhas been the cause of various environmentalproblems for a long time. For the Municipalityof Ulaanbaatar, the improvement of thedisposal site in Ulaan Chuluut has been anurgent issue.

The Pilot Project for the UrgentImprovement of the Ulaan Chuluut Disposal

Site is being implemented by the JapanInternational Cooperation Agency (JICA). Theobjective of this pilot project is:

To establish a control and managementsystem of collected waste in order toavoid illegal dumping;

To dispose of waste at the designatedarea; and

To rehabilitate the completed landfill

area and conduct a sanitary landfilloperation to the extent possible.

Mitigation of GHG emissions from thewaste sector is generally not a high prioritybecause the methane emissions associatedwith this sector are relatively low. However,

the following mitigation options in this sector were considered:

Landfill methane recovery;

Comprehensive waste management;and

Alternative waste management, suchas recycling.

One of the major options for methaneemission reduction is source reduction of solidwaste and wastewater. The following optionscan be implemented [19]

1. R ec yc li ng : It is necessary to begincategorizing solid waste, for example,household bottles, plastics, paper,domestic as well as industrial ash, pipes,raw metal parts, etc.

2. Storage and collection system: The systemcurrently in operation does not yield the

same results for every area because theoutcome depends on a number of factors,such as, the area size, amount of waste tobe collected, available road space for theplacement of containers, effectiveoperation of collector vehicles, etc. Thus,raising the collection rate of solid wastefrom all areas (household, commercial,industrial and others) is the essentialoption for reducing gas emissions from

waste.3. Incineration: For solid waste, some experts

suggest the use of a new incinerationtechnology, a kiln with heat recovery. Atpresent, most of the solid waste is burnedin open dumping sites.

4. Improve solid waste disposal facilities: Thequality and technical capability of containers and trucks for particular typesof solid waste and/or for particular districtsof Ulaanbaatar should be improved. For instance:






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Table 6.24. Summary of Energy Efficiency CDM projects in Mongolia

Name of Project

A retrofit programfor decentralizedheating stations inMongolia.

Energy efficiencyimprovementscarried out by anEnergy Service

Company (ESCO)in Ulaanbaatar,Mongolia to replaceold boilers with newones

Type of Project

Small scaleenergyefficiencyproject

Small scaleenergyefficiencyproject

ExpectedCERs,CO

2-eq/yr

11,904

22,700

ProjectStatus

The projecthas beenpartiallycarried out

The project isunder implementa-tion. 10

inefficientboilers havebeen replacedwith energyefficientboilers

Hostcountry andOrganizationMongolia,Ministry of Nature andEnvironment

Mongolia, anyministry or organization

CDM ProjectDevelopmentParticipantsMongol Zuukh XXILtd./MongoliaPROKON NordEnergiesystemeGmbH/ Leer,GermanyOpen to anyMinistry/MongoliaMitsubishiUFJ Securities

Co., Ltd./ Japan

CDM cooperation in Northeast Asia hasa tremendous opportunity to benefit fromKyoto mechanisms by integrating their

economic development and environmentalconservation efforts. Northeast Asia iscomposed of both Annex 1 and non-Annex 1countries, and all of the countries are alreadyparties to the Kyoto Protocol. The realizationof the mechanisms can take place entirelywithin a regional framework.

Japan, the world’s leading industrializednation, faces challenges in meeting its Kyototargets. At the same time, the industrial

structure and technology in most NortheastAsian countries is still dominated by inefficient,wasteful and polluting technologies andenergy intensive machinery and equipment.Therefore, there is an exact match of supplywith demand with regard to the developmentof Kyoto mechanisms in the region.

In order to realize the potential benefitsfrom CDMs, Mongolia needs to attract CDMprojects, in the form of either investment in

projects or CER purchases. In order to realizeits potential, Mongolia should establishconditions that make it an attractive place for

CDM projects. Accordingly, the MongolianGovernment has established the DesignatedNational Authority (DNA) under the Ministry

of Nature, Environment and Tourism. This isbecause without the DNA, Mongolia cannotformally approve CDM projects, and thus, theregistration of CDM projects in Mongolia wouldbe impossible.

The roles of the DNA are as follows:

- To act as the country’s focal point for CDMprojects;

- To facilitate project development;

- To provide t echnical gu idance tocompanies;

- To approve projects;

- To conduct market studies and projectidentification;

- To implement a monitoring system;

- To spread awareness through domesticand international outreach efforts (e.g.,

organize meetings, workshops,conferences, etc. with relevant companiesand organizations and provide relevant




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Kyoto Protocol-related information tocompanies and other third parties);

- To conduct international outreach effortsto countries.

For the success of CDM development, thefollowing activities need to be implemented:

- Focus CDM capacity building on policymakers and government officials, the DNAfor CDMs, project developers, projectfinanciers, NGOs, local communities andresearch organizations;


- Work with the private and financial sectorsto identify CDM projects, formulatebusiness plans, raise financial support andimplement project activities;

- Establish a pipeline of CDM projects basedon sustainable development, especially inthe energy sector;

- St reng then the network amongresearchers, policy makers, projectdevelopers and NGOs working on CDMs.



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7.1. Technology Needs in Energy Sector

7. TECHNOLOGY NEEDS ASSESSMENT

Heat produced from fuel combustion 100 %

Loss duringproduction

40 %

Loss duringtransportation

5 %

Loss duringconsumption

10 %

EfficientUse45 %

unutilized. From the study conducted, it wasestimated that only 45 percent of heatgenerated from overall fuel burning is usedinefficiently. Total heat loss structure is shownin Figure 7.1 below. Over 70 percent of overallheat loss occurs at the production level andtherefore developing boiler technologies thatincrease efficiency is very important.

Combined Heat and Power Technology

Combined Heat and Power Plant (CHP) produces approximately 98 percent of the country’s electrical power energy.Although, Mongolia is rich in renewable

energy sources of wind, solar and water,utilization of these sources has not reached an efficient level. Currently, small scale hydroelectric power plants produces electricity but only in quantities of less than one percent of total energy generation.

Coal Combustion Technology

There are two methods of burning coal:

1. Burning coal on fuel beds is

characterized by the relative directions

of the flow of fuel and the air used for combustion. Combustion occurs in the furnace. This method is used in medium and small capacity boilers,furnaces and stoves .

2. Pulverized coal combustion systems are used with high capacity steam boilers of CHPs. The dominant method of burning pulverized coal burns it as a fine powder suspension in an open furnace.

About 23 percent of total coal consumption is consumed by electrical power stations.

Figure 7.1 . Composition of Heat Losses from Overall Fuel Burning

7. Technology Needs Assessment

The priority goal of the energy sector is toreduce fuel consumption. In other words, thesector focuses on assessment of technologicalneeds and aims to develop and introduce newadvanced technologies which could meet theincreasing demands for energy by burningsignificantly less fuel. About 40 percent of heatgenerated from fuel burning is lost and goes



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There are a number of advancedtechnologies suitable for the energy sector thatare currently available:

1. Increased efficiency of energy production:

Technologies to produce electricity withless fuel;

Renewable energy technologies; and

Nuclear power technologies.

2. Introducing stoves with higher efficiencycoefficients.

3. Utilizing technologies that minimize heatloss.

4. Lightening technologies that use lesselectricity.

5. Technologies that allow consumers whouse the central heat system to control their own heat consumption. In other words,installing temperature control equipmentwith heat meters in each household andproviding individual consumers withseparate financial accounts.

6. Ut i lization of engines that use lesselectricity.

7. Improve the efficiency in the steam supplynetwork.

8. Reuse condensed water from steam heat.

The measures mentioned below areessential to improving the efficiency of energyproduction and its sources:

1. To develop more efficient and cleaner technologies for power generation anddistribution through the national electricitygrid.

2. To gradually replace electric power plantand national electric grid equipment withmore efficient, higher productivity andcleaner technologies and to stop using

equipment that cannot be upgraded;3. To build one of the below mentioned types

of power plants/stations to improve thestructure of energy network:

Hydropower plants with higher capacity;

Water-tank electrical power station;

Heat power plants of bigger capacityto operate with advanced techniquesand technologies located next to a coalmining;

Wind power development.

7.1.1. Electricity Supply

The Mongolian Central Energy System(CES) is responsible for generation anddistribution of electricity and heat throughout

the interconnected grid and is the principalentity responsible for supplying energy toabout one-half of the population of Mongolia.In recent years, electricity transmission lineshundreds of kilometres long were built under the public program to build a national energygrid for Mongolia. The grid covers areas whereapproximately 80 percent of the country’spopulation resides. The Central EnergySystem provides about 90 percent of the totalelectricity needs of Mongolia. Combined Heatand Power Plants (CHP) generates 99 percentof the electricity and supplies 70 percent of district heating systems. The specific fuelconsumption for electricity generation of CHPis shown in Table 7.1.

Table 7.1. Specific Fuel Consumption for Electricity Generation for CHP, gram. CE/ Kwh

CHP

Average

1980

398.0

1985

370.1

1990

347.8

1995

435.7

2000

420.8

2001

408.6

2002

414.3

2004

389.5

2005

378.4

2006

366.7

Years




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The current level of specific fuelconsumption for a CHP is 370-400 grams CE/ kWh, which shows that our technology isoutdated. This level is still higher by 80-100

gram CE/kWh compared to Russian CHPs.The specific fuel consumption for electricitygeneration is a main criterion of the heatsupply efficiency. CHPs operate often on coaland experts suggest using the technologieslisted below to reduce the impact on theenvironment.

1. Fluidized–bed combustion technology;

2. Combined cycles and cogeneration.Advansed combined cycles, in which thegas turbine exhaust is used as a heatsource for a steam turbine cycle, canachieve overall thermal efficiencies inexcess of 50%.

The construction of the new CHP isexpected to reduce severe air pollution inUlaanbaatar significantly as a result ofincreased efficiencies as well as by reducingthe number of stoves used for household and

water boilers purposes, all of which will resultin the reduction of GHG emissions.

Renewable Energy Sources

The Japan International CooperationAgency has introduced the ‘Master Plan Studyfor Rural Power Supply by Renewable Energyin Mongolia”. According to this plan, up to 20percent of the country’s electrical power willbe supplied from renewable energy sourcesby the end of 2020.

Small hydropower development is one ofthe best technology options for electricitysupply for remote and low-demandconsumers. Up to date, two small hydro siteswith a capacity of 11-12MW, two small hydrosites with a capacity of 1-2MW, and ninesites with a capacity of 110-500MW areoperating.

Wind power generator systems. Small

stand-alone wind power systems for batterycharging can be used for low power and highquality applications such as lighting andtelecommunications. The larger scale wind

turbine generators with capacity of 100-150KW have been operating in 15 provincialcenters of the southern part of Mongolia.

Photovoltaic (PV) solar system. Solarhome systems are easy to transport and canbe used for low-power DC applications andeven for low-power AC applications if thesystem includes a transformer. Almost halfof 170,000 herder households use the solarpanels of 50W and 40% of them use oneswith 20-30W.

7.1.2. Heat Supply

District heating systems are in all of themajor cities and towns in Mongolia. Theefficiency of CHP boilers is low and new andadvanced equipment to update old CHPs isneeded to improve efficiency. Taking intoaccount the outdated condition of steamboilers at the power plants, many projectshave been implemented to improve theirefficiency by installing new equipment. Theresults were positive and the reliable operation

and efficiency of energy production wasimproved.

Medium Capacity Heating Boilers. Thereare approximately 20 steam and 30 HOBboilers with coefficient efficiency of h=0.7-0.8in 13 provincial centers where district heatingsystems are available. Russian made heatboilers were installed during the period of1980-1988 and many of these older systemsare still in operation. Reconstruction andmodernization of medium capacity heating(steam) boilers could be accomplished byimplementing the following technologies:

Installation of nuclear heat plant;

Change the design of boilers, andintroduce coal fluidized bed combustiontechnology;

Change the design of boilers, andinstall steam boilers.

Small Capacity Hot Water Boilers.Approximately 10% of annual coalconsumption is used for heating for more than




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340 populated areas, including ger districtsin the big cities of the country. Thoseoutdated boilers with lower efficiency (0.4-0.5), installed during the socialist period

provide heating for schools, hospitals,kindergartens and other public institutions.As mentioned above, boilers do not haveoptimum design and their efficiencycoefficient is below average. Also, theabsence of water treatment equipment in allboilers used across the country leads toquick deterioration of the boilers renderingthem useless after 4-6 years. The reasons for the high level of heat price, which is aboutUSD 20-30/GCal (in 2006), are as follows:

Application Inefficiency. 600 to 715 kg of coal is required to produce one GCal of heat;

At the present time, approximately 20 coalmines are operating at sites that arelocated 80-350 km and even as far as 480km from urban areas. Transportation costcompromise about 60-80 percent of a totalcost of coal.

Suggested options to increase the efficiencyof small capacity heating boilers:

Install new high efficiency boilers in areaswhich are not connected to the centralpower grid;

Replace existing boilers located in soumsthat are over 150 km from coal mines andare connected to the central power electricity grid with electric boilers or heatpumps. This would result in a reduction of heat and coal consumption;

Install water treatment facility to removeminerals from boiler water. Salt or other mineral chemicals such as calcium andmagnesium are dissolved in untreatedwater, sometimes referred to as “hardwater,” that is used in boilers and heatingsystems. As a result, a dense scale layer is formed in the boiler and heating pipeswhich results in lower efficiency of heatgeneration and a shorter life of the boiler and related facilities.

Provide opportunities to both boiler houses and consumers to have heatmeters and boilers respectively;

Replace heating only boilers with lower efficiency with ones of higher efficiency;and

Install oil or gas fired boilers.

Furnaces and Coal Stoves. About 55%of the population lives in cities and provincecenters, 14% in province units and settlementsand 31% in the countryside, i.e. far from anysettlement. 70% of the total population livesin gers and houses which utilize 330-360

thousand furnaces/stoves. Approximately 180thousand furnaces/stoves in large cities andprovince centers only utilize coal for heating.The gers and houses in large cities andprovince centers annually use 4.3 tones of coal and 1.5 tones of wood for producing 6-7Gcal of heat for heating and cooking. Theefficiency of stoves in houses and gers arethe same as 30-40% . The following proposedmeasures could increase efficiency of

household furnaces and stoves:To use of pre-fabricated fuel;

To use of electric heaters; and

To move residents of ger districts intoapartments.

7.1.3. Distribution Systems

The industrial sector is one of the largest

energy consumers. It uses about 70% of theelectricity and 28% of the heat that isproduced. The transport sector primarily usesimported petroleum products. The total energyconsumption of the transport sector was551,000 tones in 2005. The residential sector is the largest consumer of commerciallyproduced energy in the country. It consumes11% of the coal, 48% of the heat and about25% of the electric output. The energy use

of the service sector has been increasingrapidly. The energy consumption of agricultural sector is comparatively low.




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Electricity Distribution System.

Electrical power is primarily used bythe following four main categories – motors,thermal electric equipment, lighting andelectrical appliances. An assessment oftechnology needs for the electrical distributionsystem was conducted for each of thesecategories.

Motors and Drives.

Mongolia like the other developingcountries is relying on motor systems to powerthe expansion of its industrial sectors. Motorsystems consume about 70% of industrial

electricity in Mongolia and these motorsystems are less efficient than motor systemsin industrialized countries. Electric motorsand drives are generally oversized and badlymaintained which leads to a significantdecrease in their efficiency. This is particularly

Figure 7.2. Structure of Electricity Distribution System

relevant for the milling and tanneries/textilefactories because they utilize a high numberof electric motors. Audits have measured theload of such machinery to be as low as 20-

30%, typically resulting in efficiencies in therange of 50-60%. For efficiency to beachieved, this must be more than 80% forproperly designed and maintained motor-installations. Technologies to improve motorefficiency include the following:

Utilizing new energy-efficient motors;

Improvements in the power factor;

Use of variable speed drives;

Correction of previous over sizing;

Improved mechanical powerdistribution; and

More efficient driven equipment.






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and their heating fee and price is calculatedbased on fixed tariff that does not reflect theamount of heat used. Additionally, theseapartments do have thermostats that allow

residents to adjust their own heatconsumption. Residents simply open theirwindows when indoor air temperatures are toohigh in order to let out the warm air.

Steam Systems .

The national production of steam has beenin idle state since 1990 and the steamconsumption has been greatly reduced. Eventoday in Ulaanbaatar, Darkhan, and Erdenet,the steam grid cannot operate at normalregime. Technological improvements to thesteam systems could include:

Improved return of condensate;

The addition of insulation, repair ofsteam traps; and

The installation of meters and othertechnologies to gage use and correlatecharges accordingly.

7.2. Technology Needs inTransport Sector

Transportation is one of the most importanteconomic sectors in Mongolia due to itssparsely populated vast territory. Currently, thefollowing types of transportation are availablein Mongolia:

a. Road transportation;b. Railway;

c. Aviation; and

d. River and inland water transportation(but this sub-sector is relativelyundeveloped).

There are not any oil companies orenterprises exploring liquid fuels. So far, alltypes of liquid fuels are imported from Russiaand China.

7.2.1. Railway Transport

Currently the Mongolian railway is

executing 96.0 percent of national freight, with1,815 km of railways connecting Russia,China and big domestic industrial citiesincluding Darkhan, Erdenet and Sukhbaatar.The Ulaanbaatar Railway has made avaluable contribution to the growth of theMongolian economy and played a historicalrole in the development of a nationaltransportation network, connecting newindustrial areas, mineral resources anddeposits, and the most populated villages.Diesel trains are manufactured in the RussianFederation.

7.2.2. Road transport

Also, the number of cars has beenincreasing from year to year and itspercentage in overall vehicles is more thanhalf as shown in statistics of 2006. In last 15

Figure.7.4. Heat DistributionStructure

years, Mongolia has imported many used carsfrom Japan, Korea and other countries.

The main characteristics of roadtransportation sector are:

Approximately 75 percent of all cars arebeing used for more than 9 years;

Mongolia is using petrol mainlyimported from Russia and its emissionfactor is same as stated in the IPCC;






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is increasing. Although the price of cementimported from China is comparatively low, thedomestic cement industry has not improved.In 2008, annual cement consumption

increased to 550 thousand tonnes and 25percent of this increase was attributable tonational demand.

According to the Feasibility Study onEnergy Conservation and Modernization thatthe Darkhan Cement Company made, theinstallation and modification of equipment andthe improvement of technology will result inenergy conservation and reduction of CO 2

emissions if the following steps are taken:

1. Improvement of raw material proportioningprocess;

2. Improvement of raw material grindingprocess; and

3. Improvement of burning process.

Energy Savings Technology in Industry

Energy audits provided by ADB anddemonstration projects financed by TACIS

show that the energy saving potential is veryhigh in Mongolian industry.

Technologies to improve theeffectiveness of industry electricalengine and transmission

Technologies to improve theeffectiveness of air system

Technologies to improve theeffectiveness of industry technological

stovesTechnologies to re-consume theconsumed heat

Usage of modern energy savingconsumptions

7.4. Technology Needs inAgriculture Sector

Livestock husbandry is the main livelihoodand source of wealth in Mongolia and the

country’s economy substantially depends onthe production and development of this sector.The value added of agriculture sector is 20percent of GDP of Mongolia in 2007. The

livestock production comprises 80 percentof the total agriculture production. Due to theprivatization of the domestic livestockindustry, the number of livestock hasincreased in the last few years. Most of thisgrowth has been in number of goats as thedemand for cashmere wool has increasedsignificantly.

Traditional Mongolian livestock areadaptable to a variety of different conditions,

can adjust to changes in climate and feedthemselves by grazing. These types oflivestock belong to a system of ecological pureproduction.

Grasslands and arid grasslands areestimated to cover 125 million hectares ofMongolia, and forest and scrubland cover 15million hectares of Mongolia. Grazing oflivestock is the major form of land use inMongolia and has been the traditional way oflife for Mongolians for thousands of years.Grazing of large herds of horses, sheep, andgoats has played a large role in determiningthe vegetation cover and species compositionof the grasslands. There are a total of morethan 40 million head of domestic livestock inMongolia. The percentage of goats ascompared to the total number of livestock in2006 was 41.8% and in 2008 increased to 48percent.

Grasslands account for 80% of Mongolia’sterritory. Although estimates vary, it is certainthat a significant proportion of these lands areovergrazed, causing loss of biologicaldiversity, soil erosion and economic lossesthat could become very serious if the presenttrends continue. Current livestock numbers,estimates of forage availability and anindicative feed balance have been made forall provinces of Mongolia. These show that

many provinces are overstocked and thoseprovinces with an apparent surplus of forageare usually those where water supply limits




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grazing. Furthermore, the annual yields of herbage are in most cases less than 500 kgof dry matter per hectare, and this is usuallyconsidered to be the optimum amount to be

left after grazing to allow ragwort of palatablespecies and prevent desiccation of soils indry environments.

The process of pasture degradation hastwo main causes:

1. Climate change; and

2. Increases in the number of livestock(including goats) which leads toovergrazing.

The best ways to combat pasture degradationand desertification are:

To follow the traditional pastorallivestock breeding principle (asecologically pure production);

To support the intensive livestockproduction entities in crop productionzones;

To determine the optimal structure andcarrying capacity of livestock in a givenarea, for example goats’ number; and

To improve the pasture utilizationmanagement

7.5. Technology Needs in LandUse and Forestry Sectors

Total agricultural areas of Mongolia equal113,500 thousand hectares in 2005 and 99percent of these areas consist of meadowsand rangeland. Mongolia began to cultivateconsiderable land area only after 1958 byconverting grasslands into cropland for cultivation. The area of arable land continuedto increase until the end of 1980s. For example, from 1958 to 1990, 1.2 millionhectares of grasslands were converted to

arable lands.For last 26 years, the number of sown

areas has been decreasing rapidly. The crop

production sector is bankrupt and Mongoliabecome importor for crop products, food andvegetation products. In recent years, theGovernment of Mongolia has determined that

the replacement of the crop farming is a priorityof its agricultural policy. Abandonment of cultivated lands has accelerated recently asmarginal lands have been taken out of production in the recent transformation periodfrom a socialist to a market economy.Specifically, about 140 thousand hectares of land have been abandoned on average duringthe last 16 years. These abandoned landsrevert back to grasslands.

The nationwide average forest reserveindicators can be summarized as follows:average quality is 4.2; average density 0.53,132 cubic meter reserve in 1 hectare of land,and average life expectancy for coniferoustree is 128 years and for deciduous tree 44years. 58.3% of the state protected areas (or 35 out of 61 state protected areas) have forest.1.80 million ha of state protected land is forest,out of which 3.32 million ha are deciduous

forest and 1.54 million ha are sacsaul forest.In 2006-2007, forest harmful insects anddiseases caused damages to 1,138,108 haof Mongolian forest reserve. With theparticipation of local communities and financialsupport from the Ministry of Nature andEnvironment, Local Administration and UNFood and Agricultural Organization, activitiestoward restraining the spread of forest harmfulinsects in forest area and developing of newtechnology for combating harmful insects havebeen organized.

According to forest census, forest preserveareas have increased nationwide, however,in the past few years, because of humannegative activities, large forests in certainareas have been affected by wildfire; however,a recovery has not been very successful. Outof the affected land, 391.8 thousand ha areforest area and 5,202.2 thousand ha aresteppe.

In 2005, total of 609.9 thousand cubicmeter timber was harvested. Out of this, 39.9thousand cubic meters are for industrial use




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and 570.0 thousand cubic meters for firewoodand 3,260 thousand trees were planted.

Parliament of Mongolia approved Law onForest in May 17, 2007 in order to improvethe coordination between policies andactivities concerning forests. In the nearestfuture these technologies will be improved andfollowing advanced technologies will beimplemented:

Forest conservation;

Reforestations;

Improved irrigation; and

Reduction of sown areas by increaseof crop yield per hectare.

7.6. Technology Needs in WasteManagement Sector

7.6.1. Municipal Solid Waste.

Cities in Mongolia are not very large.

However, one-half of Mongolia’s populationdoes live in these cities, with the main form ofsolid waste disposal being the open dump.There are 490 solid waste collecting posts,which cover the area of over 3,015 thousandsquare meters in Mongolia.

Assessments show that there are 1,500-1,800 m 3 daily and 650-700 thousand m 3 solidwaste (SW) is produced annually inUlaanbaatar. There are three final disposal

sites in Ulaanbaatar. The manner of disposalis open dumping. At that time only 75% ofannual SW was transported by municipalservice companies and 15 percent wastransported by private companies. Therefore,10% of total annual SW is remainsunmanaged. Also there are hundreds of illegaland unmanaged waste collecting points inUlaanbaatar as well as other big cities. TheWorld Heath Organizations calculated an

individual in Ulaanbaatar produces 0.334 kgSW a day 2. The solid waste managementsurvey project has been implemented in

Ulaanbaatar since 2004 and Solid WasteMaster Plan for Ulaanbaatar until 2020 wasdeveloped.

7.6.2. Wastewater.

Water consumption for drinking andindustrial needs is supplied by undergroundwater. Water is distributed within 80 km fromUlaanbaatar by a centralized system to eachcustomer. Water distribution has not createdincentives for conservation, however, since2000 water measurement equipment hasbeen installed in some areas and water

consumption was relatively decreased. Moremust be done to conserve water. One personwho lives in a building consumes 240-250liters water per a day and a ger householdconsumes only 5-9 liters water per a day.There are two basic types of wastewaterhandling systems:

Domestic and commercialwastewater; and

Industrial wastewater

Most domestic and commercialwastewater is handled by sewer systems withaerobic treatment. Mongolia consumed 71.0mln. cubic meters of water in 2006. 30% ofthe total consumption came from thecentralized system and 70% came from othersources that include the following: a) 24.8%of total consumption is supplied from watertanker transportation; b) 35.7% of total

consumption comes from wells and waterkiosks; and c) 9.5% of total consumptioncomes from rivers, streams, creeks andsprings. Ulaanbaatar consumed 160thousand tonnes of water per day in 1990,237 thousand tonnes of water per day in2001, and 340 thousand tonnes of water perday in 2006. (Dr.N.Jadambaa). There are foursmall and one large water treatment plantsin Ulaanbaatar and they have a combinedtreatment capacity of 230 thousand. tonnesfor industrial and domestic waste water.




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In Mongolia, the activities such assorting, sanitizing, disinfecting, recycling,reusing or disposing of waste are notcompleted in proper ways and as a result,

unprocessed wastes are transported to anddiscarded at areas closer to cities andsettlements. Because of this, the waste areaenlarges and affects surrounding areaincluding soil, water and air. The larger settlements such as Ulaanbaatar have notefficiently resolved the problem.

Collection of solid waste, and improvement of solid waste transportation, sorting, recycling and reusing management. Policy documents

such as MDG based Nation ComprehensivePolicy of Mongolia, Action Plan of theGovernment of Mongolia and Ulaanbaatar Regional Development Program (2006-2015)do address environmental pollution inUlaanbaatar and larger settlements.Comprehensive measures need to be takentoward improving solid waste managementincluding the improvement of legal, economic,managerial and institutional framework. The

recent improvements include the following:

Implementation of a registrationsystem for the Ulaanchuluut centralwaste dump and the collection of information on the waste transporting

companies such as the number of loads and weight; and

A building control dispatcher inMorindavaa waste point has beenerected. Within the assistance Japan,a waste treatment site has beenestablished in Naran Mountain and 52trucks and equipment worthapproximately 10 billion tugrugs havebeen supplied in year of 2008.

The central wastewater treatment plantdoes not currently comply with standards. After treatment the water quality is unacceptableand is a source of contamination of the TuulRiver. It is necessity to implement advancedtreatment technology as anaerobic treatment of wastewater.

There are many factories in Ulaanbaatar processing raw materials, hides and wool, and

food. All factories have their own wastewater treatment plants (Khagia) but their technologies do not meet with currentstandard. Many factories do not treat thewaste water and drain the contaminated water into the river. This has resulted in Ulaanbaatar formally adopting a policy to move rawmaterial processing factories.




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Based on the IPCC seven stepmethodology for conducting a climate changeimpact assessment, the following generalobservations and conclusions can be foundfrom the Mongolia Assessment Report onClimate Change 2009:

1. Current climate changes

Temperature due to global warming inMongolia has increased at least 2.14 oCsince 1940 and is projected to increaseup to 5 oC by end the 21 st Century.

The occurrence of disturbances inclimate and geophysical systems hasalready been observed and is projectedto intensify in magnitude and frequencyto need serious consideration, includingthe following:- Extreme hot and cold weather- Drought and decreas ing water

resources in the country, especiallyin Gobi desert areas

- Zud (harsh winter)- Dus t, sa nd st or ms an d

desertification- Flooding in some areas- Melting high mountain glaciers and

snow caps- Degradation of land surfaces by

permafrost

2. Vulnerabilities and Risks

Many studies and researches havebrought about detailed assessments ofimpact and vulnerabilities

Sustainable development depends onclose links between the environmentand the economy. A significant portionof the economic activity has alwaystargeted on natural resources such aspasture, animal husbandry, arable land

and water resources.Because of adverse impacts of climatechange on the most vulnerable natural

8. KEY CONCLUSIONS OF THE ASSESSMENT ONCLIMATE CHANGE

systems and economic sectors, risksin achieving the MDGs and nationaldevelopment targets would beincreased.

3. Current Responses

Mongolia approved its National ActionProgramme on Climate Change(NAPCC) in 2000 that includes a set ofmeasures, actions and strategies whichenable vulnerable sectors to adapt topotential climate change and to mitigateGHGs emissions.

The Millennium Development Goals-based Comprehensive NationalDevelopment Strategy (MDG-basedNDS) of Mongolia approved by theGreat Khural (Parliament) in 2008 thatincludes a Strategic Objective topromote capacity to adapt to climatechange and desertification, to reducetheir negative impacts.

The different recommended adaptationand mitigation measures are preparedand are useful in coping with currentclimate change. Many options areavailable and an inventory andassessment of existing adaptations thatpeople have already made to deal withclimate variability and extreme eventsneed to be made to guide futureactions.

4. Considering adaptation approaches

Today, Mongolia faces not only with thesame problems in developing countriescaused by the global climate change,but it also has specific concerns whichrelate to Mongolia’s uniquegeographical and climatic conditions.For instance, melting of permafrost

area, desertification, drought, etc.caused by global warming will havevery adverse effects on agriculture

8. Key Conclusions of the Assessment on Climate Change





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9.1. Achieving Goals

The Government of Mongolia, the generalpublic and the private sector have made verysignificant progress in climate changeresearch, awareness and planning since theUNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol joining in 1990s.In achieving goals, identification of possiblebarriers that would hamper success shouldbe assessed at this point of preparation forthe Second National Communication, as acourse of mainstreaming, integrating andpushing forward climate change in theplanning and implementation process. Thesewould include:

Technical – updating of instrumentsand methodologies for climate/weatherforecasting and emergencypreparedness as well as practicalmachinery and equipment that couldease drudgery in agricultural andlivestock sectors, such as productiontools, post-harvest technology,packaging, transportation, storage, etc.

Financial - considering economicdifficulties in most countries, includingMongolia, as it continue transitioningtowards economic and financialstability. Therefore, for Mongolia, themobilization of financial resources ofdomestic and international financialmechanisms and active participation inthe existing bilateral and multilateralprograms in climate change relevantareas are very essential to implementits climate change response strategiesand measures.

Institutional – the government is fullyaware of the climate change adaptation

and mitigation strategy requirements.Problems on climate change inMongolia, as in most countries, would

9. OPTIONS FOR PLANNING ON CLIMATE CHANGE

seem to be recognized at sectorallevels and they are being addressedto a certain extent. However, moreeffort and organizational structures andprocedures will need to bestrengthened at the local levels, wherethe impacts and vulnerabilities beingdiscussed here are felt most intensely.

Legislative – practical and adequatepolices, strategies, guidelines andinstitutional mandates should beestablished both at the national, andparticularly, at the local level in orderto integrate climate change issues inthe overall legislative and developmentagenda of the Government.

9.2. Planning options

Reduce vulnerability of livestock andother sensitive sectors to impacts ofclimate change through the suggestedadaptation measures which requireactions in a coordinated way andincorporation in long-term planning.

Continue research, training,strengthening, and building uponexisting capacity might be mostimportant measure in strengthening theadaptive capacity and vulnerability andadaptation strategic planning.

Assess and, when needed, improveforecasting and warning systems fordisaster preparedness such as fordrought, zud, etc. to help meet potentialdangers.

Refine existing impact and vulnerabilityanalyses discussed herein to the

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greatest extent possible, reducing theuncertainties and fine-tuning theassumptions towards more meaningfulpolicy recommendations. Translating

these findings and recommendations ineasily understandable and not-so-technical terms will be best.

Continue to improve and refine theexisting vulnerability and adaptationresearches in other areas energy,biodiversity and forestry, crops anddirect and indirect health effects of climate change

Implement greenhouse gasesreduction projects through therecommended mitigation measures inenergy, industry, transport, forestry and

waste management sectors.Pursue national and internationalcollaboration such as research,resources sharing and climate/weather forecasting at the North-east Asia sub-regional level, for Mongolia to takeactive lead role due to currentexigencies.

9. Options for Planning on Climate Change



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Bibiliography and References

Bibiliography and References

1. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon, S., D. Qin, M.Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.). Cambridge UniversityPress, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.

2. L.Natsagdorj, G.Bayasgalan, P.Gomboluudev. The Issue of Present Climate Change over Mongolia-MAS information, 2005, No 4,Volume178, p.23-44

3. L. Natsagdorj. 2005: Special features of the precipitation during the vegetation growing period inMongolia and its changes. – Geo-Ecological issues in Mongolia, No. 5, pp. 157-177

4. Biological resources of Mongolia /National Report/ -Ulaanbaatar. 1998, pp. 17

5. Evaluation method of climate change impact on Mongolian sheep by Tuvaansuren G UB, 1993, page148, Climate condition impact on livestock sector by Tuvaansuren G, Sangidsranjav S, DanzannyamB - “Orchlon” pibl.,Ulaanbaatar,1996, page 121. Climate Change and Its Impacts in Mongolia /edited

by Batima P. and Davgadorj D./- UB., 2000, 199p6. Mandakh N. Dash D. Khaulenbek A. Present Status of Desertification in Mongolia- Geoecological

Issues in Mongolia, Edited by J. Tsogtbaatar, UB., 2007, pp. 63-73 [6]

7. Bolotsetseg B., Erdenetsetseg B., Bat-oyun Ts. Changes in grassland phenology and yields duringthe last 40 years. – Papers in Meteorology and Hydrology, Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology,Issue No.24, 2002, UB., p. 108[7]

8. L. Natsagdorj G. Sarantuya. On the assessment and forecasting of winter-disaster (atmospheric causedzud) over Mongolia. – The sixth internactional workshop proceeding on climate change in Arid andSemi-Arid Regions of Asia. Aug. 25-26, 2004, UB, pp 72-88 [8]

9. National Statistical Yearbook, Mongolia 2008

10. Lessons learnt from zud phenomenon, JEMR printing house, Ulaanbaatar, 2000

11. NatsagdorjL., Dulamsuren J, Some aspects of assessing of the zud phenomenon – Paper inmeteorology and hydrology, UB, 2001, pp 3-18, Natsagdorj L., Sarantuya G., On assessment offorecasting of winter disaster (atmospheric caused zud) over Mongolia, the sixth international workshopproceedings on Climate change in arid and semi arid regions of Asia, Aug. 24-26, 2006, pp 72-88

12. Bolortsetseg.,B.Erdenetsetseg.B.,Bat-Oyun.Ts. Pasture browse’ stages, yield changes in the last 40years, Institute of hydrometeorology, Research paper series. 24. Ulanbaatar., 2002., pages.108-114.

13. Natsagdorj L., Tsatsral B .Natsagsuren H., Air drought in the territory of Mongolia, issues of interrelationof sea - air - “Ecology and sustainable development” issue 7, 2003, pages 151-180

14. Avaadorj D, Badrah S. Specific features and current state of pastures. Institute of Geo-ecology, Researchpaper series issue 2. 2001. pages. 218-226

15. Bayarbaatar L. Impact of climate change on animal husbandry productivity - Institute ofhydrometeorology, ¹24. Ulaanbaatar. 2002. Pages 137-146

16. Natsagdorj L., Sarantuya G. Tasatsral B. Issues of affected perishing of the bigger cattle and climatechange impacts .–‘Printed thesis of the First Conference of None linear Sciences -.UB, 2004, p.122-128

17. Tuvaansuren G. Sangidansranjav S. Danzannyam B. “Climate conditions of the pastureland animalhusbandry. –”Orchlon” Printing LLP, UB. 171 pages

18. Asian Least Cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy 1998

19. The Study on Solid Waste Management Plan for Ulaanbaatar City in Mongolia, JICA.

20. Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Potential in Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar 2000



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Annex 2.2: Grassland Observation Network

Figure A2.2.1. Location of the Pasture Vegetation Observation Sites

Figure A2.3.1. Location of Hydrological Observation Sites

Annex 2.3. Hydrological Observation Network

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Annex 2.4. Geographical Pattern of Temperature and Precipitation Projection

Temperatures

Figure A2.4.1(a). WinterAir Temperature Change, 0C

Figure A2.4.1(b). SummerAir Temperature Change, 0C

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Precipitation

Figure A2.4.2 (a). Winter PrecipitationChange, %

Figure 2.4.2 (b). Summer PrecipitationChange, %

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Annex 3.1 Evaluation of Land Surface Changes

1. Evaluating land surface changes using satellite data In the last few decades, the Mongolian land surface has been altered due to climate change.

It is difficult to evaluate land surface changes using numerical analyses because of the complexcomponents in one ecosystem, such as plants, animals, and soil organisms. There is no methodto do it. Further, because of its uniqueness, Mongolian land surface changes in a season not ina year. The use of environmental satellites a common practice to evaluate land surfaces andlandscapes worldwide.

Mongolia has a large landscape and an extreme continental climate. Climatic conditionsare reflected in soil and vegetation patterns. The world’s three vegetation zones are representedin Mongolia: forest-steppe, steppe and desert. These vegetation zones slowly transition intoone another and create overlapping zones. For example, mountainous forest-steppe has beencreated by forest-steppe and steppe zones, desert-steppe and semi-desert areas have beencreated by steppe and desert zones.

In 1995, for the first time in Mongolia, the Mongolian National Remote Sensing Center(NRSC) conducted an analysis using NDVI data for the years of 1992-1993 from the NOAAsatellite to evaluate the land surface of Mongolia. In 1997 and 2002, the NRSC repeated theproject to collect and validate satellite data for land surface changes. ( Figure A3.1.1 and A3.1.2)

Figure A3.1.1. Land Surface Image in 1992

Figure A3.1.2 Land Surface Image in 2002

A comparison of the 1992 and 2002 images, which were taken 10 years apart, reveals thatthe land surface has changed significantly; desert area has increased and forest area has

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decreased. In 2006, the land surface was evaluated by utilizing MODIS satellite data which has16 times higher resolution than the NOAA satellite data. ( Figure A3.1.3 , Table A3.1.3 )

According to the table, water surface decreased by 38% from 1992 to 2002, but in 2006 thewater area figures increased. Due to the higher quality satellite data resolution we could observesmall lakes and ponds in the 2006 data which we could not observe before. Areas without grass(barren) increased by 46% from 1992 to 2002. By 2006 this area (barren) almost tripled, whileduring the same period forest area decreased by more than 26%.

2. Evaluating vegetation zones using the entire biological product

The CENTURY model was used to analyze the effects of climate change on ecosystems.This model is programmed to work with a grid. The 0,5õ0,5 degree grid was built for eachregion and 899 grid cells were created for the entire Mongolian land surface. ArcView, ageographic information system software package, was used to create the grid and analyziegeographic data, vegetation zones and the land surface for each grid cell.

Biological product is the main criterion for representing the vegetation zones. Figure A3.1.4and A3.1.5 illustrate a comparison of living vegetation zones and biomass created by samples.

Figure A3.1.3. Land surface image in 2006

Table A3.1.1. Land surface change (sq. km)

123456

ClassesWater Barrengrassland Igrassland IIForestgrassland II + forestTotal area

199217,76652,5931,012,424251,261223904475,1651,557,948

200211,33576,7001,019,592250,672205,534456,2061,563,833

200614,448148,808948,904281,661164,293445,9541,558,114

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Although it did not provide a clear image in the high mountain areas, employing the biological

product sample and biological productivity, also known as net primary productivity (NPP), helpedto provide clear images for ecological zones. Biological product can be represented by theamount of carbon dioxide released by biomass. The conversion used is carbon dioxide multipliedby 2.5.

In 1984, N.Ulziikhutag determined the percentages for the Mongolian vegetation zones.These percentages represent the proportion of the total area of Mongolia covered by eachzone. Table A3.1.2 illustrates a comparison of Ulziikhutag’s research results and the modelusing NPP.

Figure A3.1.4. Mongolian CurrentEcological Zones.

Figure A3.1.5. Biological Product Simulated.

Table A3.1.2. Percentage of Vegetation Zones

123456

Name of Vegetation Zone

Mountain zoneTaiga zoneForest-steppe zoneDry steppe zoneSemidesert areaDesert zone

N.Ulziikhutag’sResearch%4.483.8923.2825.8621.9215.34

Model NPP, C h/m 2

>296

251-295131-25061-130d”60

NPP amount, %

10.8

2325.528.012.2

According to the NPP model, the forest-steppe zone and dry steppe zone are almost

equivalent to the actual figures as represented by Ulziikhutag’s research, and the semidesertarea is greater by 7% and desert zone greater by 3%. Although, the percentages calculated bythe NPP model for the vegetation zones seem close to the actual amount, the NPP model didnot calculate accurately high mountain areas such as the Altai and Khangai high mountainzones and the taiga zone of Altai Mountain which is 5% of the landscape. However, the modelprovides sufficient data on the mountain zone, dry steppe zone, semidesert area and desertzone which are 90% of the landscape. Therefore, the CENTURY model can be used in thefuture to analyze the effects of climate change on plant ecosystems. The dynamics of climatechange effects are different in high mountain ecosystems and so, employing research resultsfor high mountain areas is more appropriate.

In order to calculate the effects of precipitation and temperature on biological product, ornet primary productivity (NPP), and vegetation zone percentages, we varied the amount oftemperature and precipitation.

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Figure A3.1.6. Change in the Percentage of Vegetation Zones when theAmount of Precipitation Changes.

Figure A3.1.7. Change in the Percentage of Vegetation Zones when the Temperature Changes.

Table A3.1.3 shows the current percentage of the total area of Mongolia occupied by eachvegetation zone (as represented by NPP) and the changes to these percentages for variouschanges in precipitation and temperature.

Table A3.1.3 Change in the Percentage of Natural Zones when Temperatureand Precipitation Amount Change

NPP,C h/m 2

>296251-295131-25061-130<60

-10-51+9+6-22+50

+10+43-3

-12+8-34

+20+82-9

-20+22-55

Precipitation Change % Temperature Change , 0C+1+4-5

-15+11+19

+3+7-33-8

-10+83

+5-8

-54-20+2

+179

Amount of Landscape Change, %

According to the table, NPP>296 C h/m 2, which represents the taiga zone and a larger area,did not change when the temperature changed, but it was changed when precipitation changes.In other words, when the amount of precipitation declines, the percentage of taiga area declinesand when the amount of precipitation increases the forest and taiga areas increase. Therefore,as temperature rises, the percentages of forest and taiga areas are likely to decline.

The forest-steppe zone (NPP=251-295 C h/m 2) is more sensitive to increases in temperature.When the amount of precipitation increases, the northern part of the forest-steppe zone increasesand the overall percentage of the zone decreases. As temperature increases up to 5 0C the

dryness increases, the forest-steppe zone moves slightly to the north and the total area of thezone decreases by up to 54%.

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Although the percentage of the steppe zone (NPP=131-250 C h/m 2) seems small, it issensitive to warmer temperatures. As the amount of precipitation increases, the percentage ofthe zone decreases and the forest-steppe zone characteristics will likely increase in the zone.When the temperature rises the steppe zone pushes the forest-steppe zone to the north and

from the south it is transformed into semidesert; as a result the percentage of the zone decreasessignificantly.

As the amount of precipitation increases, productivity of the semidesert zone (NPP=61-130C h/m 2) increases and it will likely turn into steppe zone. When the temperature rises, it pushesdry-steppe zone to the north while also pushing desert zone to the north. Even though it seemsthat the zone does not change too much, its geographical position changes drastically. Whenthe amount of precipitation increases, the northern part of the desert zone (NPP=60 C h/m 2)turns into steppe zone and as a result, the percentage of the desert zone decreases. As thetemperature rises, the desert zone moves to the north, thus the percentage of the desert zoneincreases.

The change in biological product when temperature and amount of precipitation both changeare summarized in Table A3.1.4 .

Table A3.1.4. Change in the percentage of natural zones when temperature andamount of precipitation both change

Precipitation Amount Change

NPP >296 C h/m 2 taiga zone

p0p*-10%p*10%p*20%NPP =251-295 C h/m 2 forest-steppe zonep0p*-10%p*10%p*20%NPP =131-250 C h/m 2 steppe zonep0p*-10%p*10%p*20%NPP =61-130 C h/m 2 semidesert zonep0p*-10%p*10%p*20%NPP <60 C h/m 2 desert zonep0

p*-10%p*10%p*20%

t+0

0-51+43+82

0+9-3-9

0+6-12-20

0-22+8+22

0

+50-34-55

t+1

+4-52+55+96

-5+3-13-21

-150-18-18

+11-20+15+21

+19

+67-18-50

t+3

+7-36+46+93

-33-28-31-36

-8-6-20-27

-10-28+6+26

+83

+147+29-7

t+5

-8-54+34+65

-54-46-55-56

-20-23-13-17

+2-25-23-1

+179

+226+115+76

Percentage of Natural Zones Change, %

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According to Table A3.1.4 , temperature change has no effect on the taiga zone, but theamount of precipitation affects the zone greatly. In other words, when precipitation decreasesthe percentage of the zone decreases and when precipitation increases the percentage of thezone is expected to increase. In contrast, temperature change has a huge effect on the forest-

steppe and steppe zones. As the temperature rises, the percentages of the zones decrease.As precipitation increases, the percentage of semidesert zone increases, but as temperatureincreases up to 5 0C, the percentage of semidesert zone decreases slightly. However, thepercentage of desert zone increases when temperature rises.

The formation and alteration of vegetation zones is a long process. Evaluating the effectsof climate change on biological product and biomass in the years between 2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099, we see the effects of climate change on biological product.

Figure A3.1.8. NPP, C h/m 2 in SRES A2 Scenario.

Figure A3.1.9. NPP, C h/m 2 in SRES B2 scenario.

According to the HadCM3 model, taiga forest (NPP>296 C h/m 2) is expected to increase.This is especially noticeable in the years of 2020 and 2050. However, it does not mean treeswill grow naturally. There is the possible advantageous condition for trees to grow if biomassincreases and there is no effect of human activity. In 2080, forest-steppe is likely to turn intosteppe. But version SRES A2 shows that the warming rate would be slow and as a result theprocess of forest-steppe turning into steppe would be slow as well.

The steppe zone (NPP=131-250C h/ m 2) is likely to be pushed by the semidesert zone fromthe south and decreases significantly. Due to climate warming, the semidesert zone will pushthe steppe zone to the north, especially in 2080. In 2080, forest-steppe and steppe areasdecrease; this is caused by a lack of rainfall and an increase in temperature in the growingseason (June, July, September). Even if, the amount of precipitation increases up to 1.6-2.7mm, temperature is likely to rise 4-7 0C which will cause evaporation and make the air dryer.

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The percentage of desert zone (NPP=60C h/m 2) tends to expand to the north. Although theamount of precipitation is expected to increase, semidesert and desert zones are not decreasing;they are likely to expand. In other words, the increased amount of precipitation is still notenough for rapid evaporation.

3. Evaluating vegetation zones using degree of dryness

One of the criteria that defines an ecosystem is the degree of dryness. There are manyindices that describe dryness. In this research, the degree of dryness is represented by theratio of total annual precipitation to annual potential evaporation [Hare 1993]. In other words, itdescribes the system of precipitation and evaporation.

Figure A3.1.10 illustrates the Mongolian natural zones and the geographic spread of thedegree of dryness.

Figure A3.1.10. Map of natural zones and degree of dryness spread.

The dryness index map looks similar to the natural zone map and it is possible to seevegetation zone changes from the changes in the dryness index in the future. According tofigure 10, for the following zones the dryness index is as follows: 0.05-0.13 in the desert, 0.14-0.3 in the semidesert, 0.31-0.5 in the steppe, 0.51-0.9 in the forest-steppe and greater than0.91 in the taiga and high mountain.

Table A3.1.5 demonstrates the percentage of each vegetation zone using the drynessindex. Obviously, the degree of dryness, or dryness index, can represent the vegetation zones.

Table A3.1.5. Percentage of Vegetation Zones

1234

56

Name of the Zone

High mountainTaiga forestMountain forest-steppeDry steppe

SemidesertDesert

N.Ulziikhutag’sResearch, %4.483.8923.2825.86

21.9215.34

Degree ofDryness>0.90

0.51-0.90.31-0.5

0.14-0.3<0.14

Landscape PercentageSorted by Dryness10.1

30.222.9

26.710.1

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Figures A3.1.11 and A3.1.12 illustrate the dryness index changes in two potential climatechange scenarios.

Figure A3.1.11. Degree of dryness in SRES A2 scenario.

Figure A3.1.12. Degree of dryness in SRES B2 scenario.

As the climate warms, the total amount of annual precipitation also increases, but semidesertand steppe zones move to the north and the degree of dryness tends to increase more. These

changes will be observed more in 2070-2099.Based on calculations of the degree of dryness from future climate change scenarios,

vegetation zones will move to the north and semidesert and steppe zones will likely expand.Therefore, the northern part of the country is considered to be a sensitive area. This does notmean that one zone will transform into another one immediately.

In conclusion, the northern part of the country tends to become dryer steppe, but if permafrostmelts rapidly, then moisture in the soil will increase. Consequently, the drying process willoccur over a long period of time. In other words, the drying process will affect plants when themoisture from the permafrost declines. However, the percentage of the desert zone will notincrease extensively. The increase in the total amount of annual precipitation will reduce thearidity of the climate in this zone.

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Annex 3.2. Permafrost Assessment

In the northern part of Mongolia, the total area with permafrost soil increases and continuouspermafrost prevails.

1. The total area of long-lasting continuous permafrost is 141,000 square kilometers, 9.4%of the total territory of Mongolia. This permafrost area includes Khangai, Khentii, Khuvsguland Mongol Altai Mountain ranges. In this region, the permafrost spreads around thelakes, the river valleys and the front and backsides of mountains. However, there is talikon the bottom of the larger rivers and lakes. Eighty percent of this area has long-lastingpermafrost and the depth of the permafrost reaches 100-200 meters in the rivers basinand the mountain valleys, and 300-500 meters in the highly elevated area (3000-4000meters above the sea level) where the soil temperature reaches -1.5 0 C to -3.5 0 C.

2. The total area of discontinuous permafrost is 27,000 square kilometers, 1.8% of totalterritory of Mongolia. Discontinuous permafrost is located mainly in the eastern branchof Khentii, the Khuvsgul Mountain ranges and the Mongol Altai Mountains. The longlasting permafrost is located predominantly in the northern parts of the mountains andon the bottoms of the lakes and rivers.

3. The total area of distribution of common patchy permafrost is 152,630 square kilometers,10.2% of total territory of Mongolia. The bottom line of this permafrost starts from between1460-1800 meters above sea level. Moreover, this type of permafrost can be observed

in the wet, moist soil of hollows or valleys. Here, the depth of the permafrost is 50-100meters and its temperature will reach -1.0 0 C to -1.5 0 C.

4. The total area of distribution of rare patchy permafrost is 190,930 square kilometers,12.2% of total territory of Mongolia. This permafrost is distributed randomly in the mountainvalleys and river basins. The depth of the permafrost is between 10-50 meters and thetemperature is about -0.5 0 C to -1.0 0 C.

5. Occasional permafrost can be observed mostly in the central part of Mongolia, which isdry steppe, the Orkhon and Selenge river basins, the Great Lakes depression and thegreat Mongolian eastern steppe. The total area of distribution of occasional permafrostis 460,110 square kilometers, 29.4% of total territory of Mongolia. In these regions, thedepth of the permafrost is about 5 meters, and its temperature is -0.1 0 C to -0.5 0 C. Thistype of permafrost mostly occurs near small springs and streams.

6. Non-permanent permafrost occurs in the eastern part of Dariganga high plateau andKhyangan Mountains. Due to the heavy snow in the winter, here it is almost impossibleto develop permanent permafrost. However, in some years when there is small snow,permafrost may be formed here.

7. Seasonal permafrost occurs in the southern steppe and the Gobi region. Sometimes, inthis region, the depth of the permafrost reaches 1.7-3.5 meters.

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In the late 1990s, researchers R.Mijiddorj, D.Tumurbaatar and V.Ulziisaikhan used apermafrost index developed by O.A. Anisimov and R.Ye.Nelson in their own calculations whiledividing the country’s territory into two groups—with permafrost and without permafrost—topredict future changes 1. This permafrost index is determined by using the sum of below and

above zero air temperature.

= permafrost index

= the sum of annual temperature below zero

= the sum of annual temperature above zero.

If the index is above 0.5, then there is permafrost soil, but if the index is below 0.5, thenthere is no permafrost soil.

The permafrost index, , is calculated using the air temperature norms for 1961-1990,and the territory is divided by the air temperature into two groups, above and below 0.5. Thedivision of the territory is compared with the actual permafrost map. As a result, the territorywith 0.5 or above index overlaps with the continuous, discontinuous, common patchy, rarepatchy permafrost. ( Figure A3.2.1 ).

Based on these calculations, the permafrost index shows that 34.4% of Mongolia haspermafrost soil, which is similar to the percentage area of continuous, discontinuous, common

patchy, rare patchy permafrost in total.

Figure A3.2.1. Permafrost Index, 1961-1990

1 Climate Change and Its Impacts in Mongolia, edited by Batima P. and Davgadorj D., UB., 2000, 199p.R. Mijiddorj, D. Tumurbaatar, B. Ulziisaikhan. Global warming influence on permafrost and snow cover inMongolia. - “Ecology and Sustainable development” series, ¹ 5, pp. 120-131

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For the ratio of temperature of coldest and warmest months: Russian scientists (P.F.Demchenko, A.A. Velichko, G.S. Golitsyn, A.V. Eliseev, V.P. Nechaev) have used the averagetemperature of the coldest and warmest months of the year to calculate the permafrostdistribution 2.

= the ratio of the coldest and warmest months of the year

= the average temperature of January, the coldest month of the year

= the average temperature of July, the warmest month of the year.

When examining the ratio of multiyear temperature averages of the coldest and warmest

months of the year in Mongolia, on average, below-zero temperature or -1.40

C prevailsthroughout the country. When this ratio of the coldest and warmest months is depicted on themap of Mongolia, continuous permafrost overlaps with temperatures of -2.3 0 C or less;discontinuous, common patchy, rare patchy permafrost overlaps with temperatures of -2.3 0 Cto -1.4 0 C; occasional, non-permanent permafrost overlaps with temperatures of -1.4 0 C to 1.1 0

C; and seasonal permafrost overlaps with temperatures of -1.1 OC and above ( Figure A3.2.2 ).

Figure A3.2.2. The Ratio of Multiyear Temperature Average of the Coldest andWarmest Months of the Year in Mongolia

2 P.F. Demchenko, A.A. Velichko, G.S. Golitsyn, A.V. Eliseev, V.P. Nechaev, The fate of the permafrost: fronthe past to the future Nature No 11, 2001, p.43-49

Figure A3.2.2 demonstrates that the temperature distribution overlaps with the originalpermafrost distribution map. However, the temperature distribution does not reveal continuouspermafrost within smaller areas in the Khentii Mountains. Despite this fact, this method calculatesthe permafrost area more accurately than the other method above. ( Table A3.2.1 ).

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Table A3.2.1. Correlation between the Permafrost in Mongolia and Ratio of Multiyear TemperatureAverage of the Coldest and Warmest Months of the Year in Mongolia

Type of permafrost

ContinuousDiscontinuousFrequent patchyRare patchyCasual

TotalSeasonal

Percentage areacompared to thetotal territory (% )9.41.810.212.229.4

63.037.0

Total

24.2

29.4

scale ( 0 C)

Lower than -2.3 0 CBetween -2.3 0 Cand -1.4 0 C

Between -1.4 0 Cand -1.1 0 C

Above -1.1 0C

Percentage area of the certain scale tothe total territory (%)14.0

26.2

24.3

35.5

Permafrost Sum of negative temperature

Total areawith perm-afrost

64.5

This method identifies that 14% of the total territory of Mongolia has continuous permafrost,25% of the country has discontinuous, common patchy, or rare patchy permafrost, 24% of thecountry has occasional permafrost, 37% of the country has seasonal permafrost, andconsequently 63% of Mongolia has some type of permafrost. In order to identify the futuredistribution of the permafrost, according to the above methodology, calculations were made on864 points on a 0.5x0.5 grid covering the territory of Mongolia using monthly averagetemperatures for 2010-2029, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099, calculated using the HadCM3, CSIRO,ECHAM models under the greenhouse gas emission scenarios SRES A2 and SRES B2.

Permafrost Distribution by HadCM3: According to the results calculated based on thismodel, the permafrost distribution rapidly decreases by 2020, and slowly diminishes further on. Moreover, discontinuous, frequent patchy, rare patchy permafrost slowly decreases insize, and as a result, the area of Mongolia with no permafrost will increase. For example,according to the calculation based on SRES A2 scenario, the area of continuous permafrostwill rapidly decrease from 14% to 4.4% from 2010-2039, then to 0.5% from 2040-2069, andfinally will decrease to zero from 2070-2099. Thus, the area of non-permafrost land in Mongoliawill increase by 50% to 80%. ( Table A3.2.2 ). The results based on SRES B2 scenario aregenerally similar to SRES A2 results.

Table A3.2.2. General Distribution of Permafrost Calculated Using the Ratio of theTemperature of the Coldest and Warmest Months of the Year, in %

Type of Perma-frost

ContinuousDiscontinuous,Frequent patchy,

Rare patchyCasualSeasonal

By the ratio of thetemperature of the coldestand warmest months of the year.Lower than -2.3 0 C

Between -2.3 0 C and -1.4 0 C

Between -1.4 0 C and -1.1 0 CAbove -1.1 0 C

1961-1990

14.0

26.18

24.335.5

20204.4

23.94

21.849.9

HadCM3, A2 HadCM3, B2

20500.5

17.92

14.667.0

20800.0

6.49

12.680.9

20203.1

22.29

17.757.0

20500.6

19.58

15.464.4

20800.0

15.33

14.070.6

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Permafrost distribution by CSIRO: The results of this model are shown in Table A3.2.3 .According to this table, results based on the SRES B2 and A2 scenarios generally are similar.For example, the SRES A2 scenario predicts that the size of continuous permafrost for 2010-2039 will be 4% and will vanish by 2070-2099. The SRES A2 scenario also shows that the size

of permafrost-free land (i.e., the land that will have seasonal permafrost or the soil freezes onlyin the winter) will tend to increase to 52% in 2010-2039, 67% in 2040-2069 and 82% in 2070-2099. Moreover, the SRES B2 scenario predicts the size of continuous permafrost will be only2% of the total territory for 2010-2039 and will vanish by the 2070-2099. The SRES B2 scenarioalso shows that the permafrost-free land will tend to increase to 58% in 2010-2039, to 66% in2040-2069 and then to 73% in 2070-2099.

Table A3.2.3. General Distribution of Permafrost Calculated using the Ratio of theTemperature of the Coldest and Warmest Months of the Year. in %

Type ofPermafrost

ContinuousDiscontinuous,Frequent patchy,Rare patchyCasualSeasonal

By the ratio of thetemperature of the coldestand warmest months ofthe year.Lower than -2.3 0 C

Between -2.3 0 C and -1.4 0 C

Between -1.4 0 C and -1.1 0 CAbove -1.1 0 C

1961-1990

14.0

26.18

24.335.5

20204

23

2052

CSIRO, CSIRO,A2 B2

20501

19

1467

20800

6

1282

20202

23

1758

20501

19

1466

20800

16

1273

Permafrost distribution by ECHAM: Compared with other models, this model shows thatclimate change will strongly affect the state of permafrost. For example, the area of continuouspermafrost will take up only 1% of the total territory of Mongolia by 2010-2039. In addition, thetotal area of permafrost land will comprise only 33% of the total territory according to SRES A2scenario and 19% according to the SRES B2 scenario. By the 2040-2069 period, the total areaof permafrost land will comprise only 22% of the total territory according to SRES A2 scenario,and 19% according to the SRES B2 scenario. By the 2070-2099 period, the total area ofpermafrost land will decline to 3% of Mongolia according to the SRES A2 scenario and to 16%according to the SRES B2 scenario ( Table A3.2.4 ).

Table A3.2.4. General Distribution of Permafrost Calculated using the Ratio of theTemperature of the coldest and Warmest Months of the Year usingECHAM model, in %

Type ofPermafrost

ContinuousDiscontinuous,Frequent patchy,

Rare patchyCasualSeasonal

By the ratio of thetemperature of the coldestand warmest months ofthe year.Lower than -2.3 0C

Between -2.3 0C and -1.4 0C

Between -1.4 0C and -1.1 0CAbove -1.1 0C

1961-1990

14.0

26.18

24.335.5

20201

20

1266

ECHAM, A2 ECHAM, B2

20500

10

1180

20800

0

397

20201

17

1270

20500

8

1181

20800

3

1385

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The above three climate change models clearly demonstrate that the size of permafrostarea is decreasing from year to year and that the type of permafrost is shifting from one type of permafrost to another type. For example, between 2010-2039, the mountains, that are currentlycontinuous permafrost, will become the discontinuous common patchy, rare patchy permafrost.

Between 2040-2069 and 2070-2099, the current continuous permafrost in Altai, Khuvsgul andKhangai Mountains will likely become discontinuous common patchy, rare patchy permafrost.The total size of the permafrost land will decrease by three folds and the size of the permafrost-free land will double. The thawing or disappearance of permafrost has both positive and negativesides.

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Annex 3.3 Glacier and Snow Cover Assessment

The Mountain Snow Cover and Snow Cap Most of the snow covered areas, the snowcaps and the glacial rivers (except Otgontenger

and Munkhsaridag) are located in the Mongol Altai Mountains. Consequently, 60-90 percent ofall water in the rivers and streams originating from the Altain Mountains comes from the snowmelt and snow cap. A glacier is the product of the climate itself, and its continued existencestrongly depends on the intensity of climate change.

In order to evaluate the snowcap, Mongolian scientist D. Davaa conducted research onTsambagarav Mountain’s snowcap, beginning in 2002. D. Davaa published the first results onthe melting of snowcap and ground temperature in 2004, and on glacier melting along with itsinfluencing climate information and the Ulaan am river flow in 2005.Figure A3.3.1 shows thegeneral image of Tsambagarav Mountain’s snowcap and the locations of the monitoring points.

Figure A3.3.1. The General Image of Tsambagarav Mountain and the Locations ofMeteorological Observation Points

The topographic map Ì1:100000 that was developed in the 1940s shows that the total sizeof snow cap in the Kharkhiraa, Turgen, Tsambagarav and Tavanbogd Mountains were 50.13,43.02, 105.1 and 88.88 square kilometers, respectively. However, according to the studiesconducted recently and the information received from LANDSAT 7 satellite, the size of thesnow cap has diminished by 30%, and specifically, the Kharkhiraa and Turgen Mountains’snow cap has decreased by 37.5% and 21.4%, respectively.3

The size of the snowcap in the Tsambagarav Mountains was reduced by 13.4% in 1992,28.8% in 2000 and 31.9% in 2002 as compared with the state in the 1940s mentioned above.From the bottom to the upper part of the Potanin region, the glacial volume in the Tavanbogd

3 Davaa G., R.Mijiddorj, S. Khudulmur, D. Erdenetuya, T. Kadota and N. Baatarbileg, “Responses of the Uvslake regime to the air temperature fluctuations and the environment changes”, Proceedings of the firstSymposium on “Terrestrial and Climate changes in Mongolia”, Ulaanbaatar, 26-28 July, 2005, 130-133 p.

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Mountains has melted away by 379-422 cm, the Turgen Mountain glacier by 230-177 cm and210-100 cm seasonal snow, and the Tsambagarav Mountain snowcap by 249-158 cm. Thesemountains, comparatively in low altitude, have mostly glacier rivers.

Melting parameter is the degree-day [cm·°C -1·day -1] parameter that compares the level of snow melting to the daily average temperature. Identification of this parameter will help todetermine the level of melting [M [cm]] using air temperature [°C·day] data. The volume of snow melting will not only be determined by the temperature regime, but also depend on windspeed, radiation balance, and the heat to be used for the density of water steam. Therefore,the melting parameter can be different depending on the climate and weather condition. Thiswill require constant observation and research on glacier formation and melting and the flow of rivers beginning from the snowcap.

Figure A3.3.2a. Changes in Borderline of 0 0 C that has been Calculated by HadCM3Model using SRES A2 Scenario

Figure A3.3.2b. Changes in Borderline of 0 0 C that has been Calculated by HadCM3Model using SRES B2 Scenario.

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Annex 3.4 Water Resources Assessment

The initial occurrence of ice occurs 10-15 days later in rivers originating from MongolianAltai Mountains, 5-10 days later in the Khangai and Khentii Mountains, and 2-5 days later in therivers originating from western branches of Khentii Mountains and Ikh Khyangan Mountains.Moreover, the date on which the ice deteriorates occurs 5-15 days earlier on average; specifically,ice deterioration occurs 10-15 days earlier in the rivers running from the Mongol Altai andKhangai Mountains, 8-12 days earlier in the rivers originating from the western branches of theKhentii Mountains, and, 3-5 days earlier in rivers originating from eastern branches of the Khentiiand Ikh Khyangan Mountains. Because of this timing shift, the period that the rivers have icecover is between 10 days to 1 month fewer on average.

The occurrence of ice on larger lakes also has changed. Even though no change has occurred

with respect to the ice cover on the Khuvsgul Lake, the Uvs Nuur Lake has seen ice formationoccurring 5 days later and ice deterioration occurring 10 days earlier. Lake Buir, located in theeastern part of Mongolia, now has ice formation 20 days later and deterioration 10 days earlier.In addition to the change in timing, the ice cover is no longer as thick as it once was. Thethickness of the ice in the rivers running from the Mongolian Altai Mountains has decreased by40-100 centimetres, by 20-40 centimeters in the rivers from the Khangai and Khentii Mountains,and by 20-40 centimetres in the rivers from western branches of the Khentii Mountains, withinwhich the Khanui River has thinned by 100 centimetres.

Spring Snowmelt and Runoff Flooding

Before the soil is fully thawed in the spring, the river water levels are largely fed from snowmeltwater, and in years with heavy snow, the snowmelt water can cause flooding. The river waterflooding due to snow melting, known as called snowmelt runoff flooding, usually occurs in April orMay. Depending on the geographic location of the rivers that originate in the mountains, the totalvolume of water from spring snowmelt runoff is approximately 10-35% of a river’s annual flow.The intensity and volume of runoff water from the snowmelt depends completely on the climateconditions at that time. Because of this, the snowmelt runoff water is one important indicator thatshows the effects of climate change.

Research results show that the timing of the snowmelt runoff flooding in the rivers from the

southern branches of the Altai and Khangai Mountains has been delayed by 20 days. In the riversfrom western branches of the Khangai and Khuvsgul Mountains, it has been delayed by 15 days.In the rivers from the northeastern branches of the Khangai and Khuvsgul Mountains, it has beendelayed by five days. Also, in the case of the Tuul River, the beginning of the snowmelt runoffflooding begins 20 days earlier, and in contrast, the snowmelt runoff flooding has been delayed by15 days for the Khalkh River and others running from the Khangai Mountains.

Summer Floods (Flashfloods) Caused by Rainfall

In Mongolia, 60-80% of the annual precipitation occurs in the summer, and the highest levelof water flow can be observed in July and August when the heaviest rains occur. 4 The totalvolume of water caused by summer rains comprises 40-70% of the total river flow.

4 Surface water in Mongolia,1999.

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The summer floods in the rivers from western branches of the Khentii Mountains occurs 2-3 days later; in the rivers from southern branches of the Khentii Mountains, the summer floodsare 10 days later; in the rivers from the Khangai, Khuvsgul and Khan Khukhii Mountains, thesummer floods are 2-7 days later; and, the most extreme example is seen at the Khalkh River,

where the summer floods are approximately one month later.However, this change in the timing of the summer floods is less noticeable in the upper part

of the rivers as comparative to the more noticeable change in the lower part of the rivers.Moreover, the continuity of the summer rainfall has declined by 5-10 days in the Khuvgul,Khangai and Khan Khukhii Mountains and declined by 5 days in the Khentii Mountains.Understandably, the intensity of the river floods increases when the duration of the flood isreduced; as a result, the river floods also can create increased risks. For example, the changein the timing of the Tuul River summer flooding is shown in Figure A3.4.1 . This Figuredemonstrates that there is almost no change in the volume of the river flow, but there has beena great change in the seasonal regime. Because of the intensity of the summer flood and the

water passing at extremely high speeds, the river loses its ability to absorb water in the bottomsoil. As a result, it cannot support the river during the summers with low precipitation, causinga disturbance to the river’s flow. In other words, the harmony between the underground andsurface water is lost due to climate change.

Besides the changes occurring with respect to the initial date of the summer floods and thecontinuity period, the floodwater flow is also changing. The intensity of the rivers originating in

the southern branches of the Khangai Mountains, the Khuvsgul Mountains, and the Khan KhukhiiMountains has increased by 30-50 m 3/s. Also, the intensity of the rivers originating from thesouthern branches of the Khangai Mountains, the Khuvsgul Mountains and the Khan KhukhiiMountains has increased by 100 m 3/s or more. However, the intensity of the river flow hasdeclined by 30-50 m 3/s in the rivers originating in the western and northern branches of theKhangai Mountains and the southern parts of Khentii Mountains.

Thus, the change in river flow regime is closely related to the changes in air temperatureand precipitation, as well as the change in permafrost condition, soil erosion, and soil thawing,which are all caused by climate change. Therefore, to demonstrate the inter-relatedness of these causes, to determine the specific negative impacts of climate change and to determine

preventative measures against possible dangers, detailed research should continue to beconducted on the rivers, lakes, soil, mountain snow cover, permafrost and rivers that beginfrom permafrost mountains.

Figure A3.4.1. Change in the Beginning Date and the Continuity Period of theTuul River’s Summer Flood (P. Batima, 2005)

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Impact of Future Climate Change on River Water Flow

Researcher P. Batima has calculated the impact of climate change on the water reserveand predicted its future trend. Change in river flow was calculated using the climate change orthe change in air temperature and precipitation.

Calculations show that when the air temperature is constant and the level of precipitationchanges, the river flow directly depends on the precipitation amount. For example, if the amountprecipitation decreases by 10%, while the air temperature is constant, the river flow in theCentral Asian Internal River Basin, Arctic Ocean Basin and Pacific Ocean Basin will decreaseby approximately 7.5%, 12.5% and 20.3%, respectively. When the level of precipitationdecreases by 20%, the reduction in river flow is approximately the same in all basins; the riverflow decreases by 20.2% in Central Asian Internal Basin, by 22.3% in the Arctic Ocean Basinand by 29.3% in the Pacific Ocean Basin.

The percentage increase of river flow due to the 20% increase in precipitation is comparatively

less than the decrease in volume of river flow when there is the same percentage decrease inprecipitation. When there is no change in the volume of precipitation, but the air temperatureincreases, then on average the river flow in the Arctic Ocean basin decreases by 4-20%, anddecreases by 15-30% in the Pacific Ocean Basin. This fact is explained by an increase inevapotranspiration. Thus, the surface water cannot be supported by soil moisture or undergroundwater.

However, in the Central Asian Internal Basin, the river flow will increase by 6.7% with a onedegree increase in the air temperature, and as the air temperature increases by 2 0 C the riverflow decreases by 3.4%, and with a 3 0 C increase in air temperature, the river flow decreasesby 0.2%. This fact shows that the initial temperature increase causes snow cover and glaciers

to melt, thereby increasing the river flow. However, as the temperature continues to rise, thesnow cover and glacier reserve is exhausted; when the air temperature increases by 5 0 C, theriver flow will decrease. Approximately 40% of the Mongolian river and water reserves belongto the Central Asian Internal Basin, and the Great Lakes Depression comprises another 20% ofthe water reserve of the country.

According to the calculation of the future scenario of climate change based on the large-scale climate models developed by UK Hadley Centre, river flow will increase greatly in thePacific Ocean Basin and moderately in the Arctic Ocean Basin up to 2040-2070. Also, there isa tendency of increasing river flow in the Central Asian Internal Basin until 2040 and decreasingafter that; the volume of river flow increase and decrease will be 11% and 19%, respectively, ascompared to the level in 2040. When the results of the scenarios developed using the abovementioned models are combined with other models, one can predict with great certainty thatthe water reserve in Mongolia will increase until 2040 and then will decrease, eventually returningto today’s levels.

The impact of climate change on the Great Lakes Depression has been calculated basedon “WaterGap” model (Water – Global Assessment and Prognosis, Version 2.1; Alcamo et al.,2003, Doll et al., 2002) and (B. Lener and P. Batima, 2004). Parameters of the Khovd River flowhave been identified based on this model and its tendency for 2011-2040 has been calculatedbased on the climate model developed by the Hadley Center. Moreover, the river flow in theUvs Lake Basin tends to increase. By comparison, the water flow decreases in the KhyargasLake Basin. Particularly, in the basins of the Khovd River and Buyant River, the river flow tendsto decrease by approximately 25%. However, the “WaterGap” model does not account for the

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formation process of snow cover and glaciers and the snowmelt supplied to the rivers; instead,it mainly uses the future changes in temperature and precipitation.

Dr. G. Davaa has calculated the current water balance of river basin area and the futurechange in its elements while using greenhouse gas emission scenarios SRES A2 and SRESB2 and the UK Hadley Center’s climate models. The results of the climate scenario, i.e., theprecipitaion, air termperature, wind speed, humidity, and total radiation data for 2020 (2011-2040), 2050 (2041-2070) and 2080 (2071-2100), and the results of the climate change modelsbased on the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios compared with the norm from 1961-1990 are shownon the map of Mongolia with 0.5 o x 0.5 o grid. In order to determine the current mean of the water balance elements and their future changes and to determine the model parameters, the volumeof river flow, its evaporation and water surface evaporation must be determined, plotting theresults on the 0.5 o x 0.5 o grid map throughout the territory of Mongolia.

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Annex 3.5 Natural Disaster Assessment

There are many different, even contradicting definitions of the term disaster that can occurin the economy, society and environment, including natural disasters. In addition, many termsthat are widely used in risk management can be understood having different meanings whenreferring to a disaster.

Definitions

United Nations General Assembly Resolution 42/169 regarding the designation of the1990s as the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR), states: “Naturaldisaster is the phenomenon that one or more natural phenomenon occur at the same time

covering larger territory, causing human fatality, property damage or destruction wherenormal way of life cannot be continued on.” According to this definition, natural disastersoccur because of natural causes. This definition also connotes that natural disastersoccur without human will and power.

In the UN Resolution 42/169 that declared the 1990s as the International Decade forNatural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR), “earthquake, storms (cyclone, typhoon, tornado),tsunami, flooding, land movement, volcano eruption, grasshopper migration and etc.” wereconsidered natural disasters.

This definition of natural disaster includes human fatality and property damage, but damageto the environment and cross border social and economic damages are not counted. However,when the natural phenomena create natural disasters, it usually causes socio-economic damagesand also environmental degradation. The environmental degradation also negatively impactssociety and the economy. Therefore, those phenomena that negatively affect the environmentshould also be counted as natural disasters. In practice, Mongolia counts a sudden increase ofrodents, forest fires and steppe fires as natural disasters. Therefore, environmental degradation,in addition to large sum property damage, should be included in the UN’s definition of naturaldisaster. Environmental degradation also includes irreversible damage to the ecosystem. Forexample, the drought and desertification that occurred in the Sudan-Sachel in the 1970s caused

1,793 human fatalities from 1970-1974 and millions of “environmental refugees.” Moreover,the drying up of Lake Aral in the Russian Federation and five lakes in the Gobi region in Mongolia,including Lake Ulaan that never came back to life, should be counted as ecological damage.The Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disaster (CRED) has publicly announced thatit will develop a list of natural disasters which includes the ecological disaster of the African“drought” in the list of natural disastrous phenomenon.

From here the next questions arise: what natural phenomenon should be counted as naturaldisasters, and how should an international standardized list of natural disasters be developed?

In the UN Resolution 42/169 that declared the 1990s as the International Decade for NaturalDisaster Reduction (IDNDR), “earthquake, storms (cyclone, typhoon, tornado), tsunami, flooding,land movement, volcano eruption, grasshopper migration and etc.” were considered natural

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disasters. In other words, these phenomenons are the geological, meteorological, hydrological,ecological and biological phenomenon that may result to the natural disaster.

However, this issue is addressed differently in various documents worldwide. For example,the insurance company Munich Reinsurance, which insures against natural disasters, developeda list of natural disasters that occurred from 1960-1998, and its list did not include any biologicallyor ecologically caused phenomenon as natural disasters. The list did include extreme hot andcold temperatures or heat and cold waves, e.g., 1.2% of total listed items fell in the drought/heat category. According to this information, droughts constitute nine percent of all naturaldisasters, are the number one cause of human fatality and caused 49% of all deaths worldwidefrom 1965-1999.

However, another UN 5 source states that droughts constitute 22% of all natural disasters(or impact 33% of affected population), but caused only 3% of human fatalities, the smallestpercentage compared to other disasters. Today, there are a variety of different resources thataddress the types of natural disasters, their frequency and the damage caused. Therefore, it isessential to have a standardized methodology to evaluate these disasters.

The term “natural disaster” not only refers to the intensity of the phenomenon itself, but alsoto the vulnerability of the affected objects. Thus, the next question arises: how much damagemust occur to constitute a natural disaster? It is difficult to place a value on damage withrespect to human fatality. However, the damage that occurs to an economy, society and theenvironment can more easily be determined and value.

In the EM-DAT of CRED, a natural disaster occurs when (i) an incident that causes ten or more human deaths or adversely affects 100 or more people and (ii) when help from theinternational community is requested or the area is declared to be in a state of emergency.

However, in Mongolia, where its population is scattered throughout the country, there has beenrelatively minor urban development and the nomadic husbandry lifestyle endures, the suddendeath of animals is considered a natural disaster. Therefore, the term “zud” is being considereda natural disaster, especially when it greatly affects the nomadic lifestyle.

Frequency of Natural Disasters

According to data collected since the 1970s, Mongolia has experienced approximately 25-30 atmosphere related natural phenomenon, and of these almost one-third caused naturaldisasters and five to seven billion Tugrug in damage for the government and the society. Since

the mid-1990s, excluding droughts and dzuds, temporary hard weather conditions caused 10-12 billion Tugrugs in damage every year, which is due in large part to lack of protective mechanismagainst natural disasters, or improved statistical data.

With regard to human fatality, continuous strong snowstorms (6 hours or more of snow) thatcover a large territory are the most dangerous. During this type of storm, herders who areusually in the pastureland with their herds are especially vulnerable. For example, on fromApril 16 to April 20, 1980, a strong snowstorm, with up to 40 m/s of speed, continued for 60hours and caused 43 human deaths (during the socialist era, the statistics on damage was notopen to public) and 800,000 animal deaths. No information has been collected on whether wind speed or disaster frequency has been affected by climate change. However, information

5 Kleshenko A.D. Modern monitoring issues - issue.33,2000,pp.3-13

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is available on the frequency of droughts and zuds and on other types of atmospheric convectioncausing dangerous phenomenon (heavy rains, squalls, thunderstorms, and big hails) coveringsmall territory.

The frequency of heavy rain is increasing when compared to the occurrence of rain; thus,the volume of rain per day is increasing. 6 For example, according to the data collected at theArvaikheer station from 1979-1996, the frequency of heavy rain increased by 18% whencompared to the total precipitation in warm season. Since the convection intensity is increasing,the frequency of socially and economically harmful phenomenon, including flashfloods,thunderstorms and hailstorms, has increased by twofold (Figure A3.5.1)

Figure A3.5.1. Multiyear Tendency of Atmoshperic-Convection-Related Natural Disasters

6 L. Natsagdorj. 2005: Special features of the precipitation during the vegetation growing period in Mongoliaand its changes. – Geo-Ecological issues in Mongolia, No. 5, pp. 157-177

Moreover, if one looks at highest level of rainfall per day recorded at the 40 meteorologicalstations since the 1940s, 28 stations recorded the maximum level of rainfall before 1980 but 35

stations recorded maximum rainful between 1981 and 2006. But it is also noted that 19 out of28 previous stations before 1980 had the second highest level of rainfall.

Drought

Drought is a natural disaster that causes a significant amount of damage to the economyand soceity. Drought usually occurs in dry, semi-dry and less moist areas. However, no uniformmethod exists to determine what exactly constitutes a drought and how to evaluate whether adrough occurred. Since there is no common understaing of droughts, the information receivedfrom areas with droughts usually differs. Moreover, it is important to differentiate between dry,

semi-dry and less moist conditions from drought conditions. According to some definitions,drought is considered an anomalous climatic condition that occurs when an area lacks moisture.Stated differently, drought is an anomalous climatic condition when the temperature rises andthere is no rain for months during the vegetation growing period.

Generally Mongolia has experienced a drought every three years. Depending on droughtand precipitation levels, the condition of the vegetation cover in the pasturelands will differ fromyear to year. According to a study, during drought years, the vegetation cover will diminish by12-48% in high mountain areas and by 28-60.3% in the Gobi and steppe regions. Global climatechange affects the climate condition of Mongolia that now has an increased intensity of dryness. 7

Figure A3.5.2 shows the multiyear history of drought indices.

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7 L. Natsagdorj, D. Dagvadorj, P. Gomboluudev. Climate change in Mongolia and its future trend. – A ScientificOrganization of Meteorological Institute, No. 20, Ulaanbaatar, 1998, pp.114-133,L. Natsagdorj, For the issues of aerial drought research on the territory of Mongolia –”Climate change andagriculture” theory and practice workshop (Darkhan city, November 22, 2002), - Ulaanbaatar. 2002. pp.26-47L. Natsagdorj, B. Tsatsral, N. Natsagsuren. Aerial drought on the territory of Mongolia and issues of large

scale correlation between ocean and atmosphere, - “Ecology and sustainable development” series No. 7,2003, pp.151-1808 Natsagdorj.L, Dulamsuren.J 2001Some aspects of assessment of the dzud phenomena- Papers in meteorol-

ogy and hydrology UB. 2001. pp. 3-18

Figure A3.5.2. Multiyear History of Drought Indices.

It is clear from these climate models that the expected amount of precipitation cannot sustainthe sudden increase in air temperature. Therefore, the intensity of the droughts is predicted toincrease in the territory of Mongolia ( Table A3.5.1).

Zud (Harsh Winter)

The productivity of nomadic animal husbandry and the herders’ livelihood are almostcompletely dependent on environmental and climate conditions. Due to harsh weather conditions, every year, millions of animals die, and as a result of these deaths, the herders’livelihood and the country’s economy is hit hard. Mongolians have been engaged in nomadicanimal husbandry for thousands of years, and the risk that this way of life will become extinctbecause of changing environmental, climate and weather conditions is of great concern.

Observation demonstrates that the colder the winter, the higher the number of animal deaths.This statement has been supported by previous research results. 8 Figure 6 shows the historyof multiyear winter index. From here one can conclude that extreme winters occurred in 1956-1957 with S win= -1.88; in 1944-1945 with S win= -1.70; in 1954-1955 with S win= -1.69; and, in2005-2006 with S win= -1.36.

Table A3.5.1. Future Trend of Drought Indices /used HADCM3 Model

S SUM

20201.83

20502.44

20804.34

SRES A2 SRES B220201.70

20502.15

20803.62

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Figure A3.5.2. Multiyear Average Winter Iin Mongolia (S win )

The Figure shows the trend that the winters are somewhat less severe since the 1970s until2000, and since then the winters again have been harsh. In the 21 st century, it is expected thatMongolia will be affected by global warming; however, the winter precipitation levels tend toincrease, so it is expected that there will be no increase in the winter index or that the winter willbe harsher ( Table A3.5.2) .

Table A3.5.2. Future trend of Winter Index as Calculated by HADCM3 Model

S WIN

2020-0.2

20500.16

20800.09

SRES A2 SRES B22020-0.05

2050-0.15

2080-0.325

Future zud condition. Harsh winters and summers will follow zuds. Figure 3.29 shows themultiyear history of the zud index. The zud condition has less impact since the 1940s until2000; however, drought in the late 1990s and several zuds around 2000 caused a suddenincrease in the zud index. The harshest zud occurred in 1944-1945 with S dzud = 3.43, whichcaused the deaths of approximately 31% of the total herds. The zud index before 2000 can beexplained mainly by the harsh winter conditions, but after 2000, it is mostly due to summerdrought conditions.

Figure A3.5.3. A Multiyear Trend of the Average Zud index of Mongolia (S zud )

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The higher the zud index is, the larger the area that has been affected by the zud. 9 In other words, when the zud index value is high there is almost no chance of moving to nearby zud freearea to avoid the damage. In order to determine the future trend of the zud condition in theterritory of Mongolia, S has been calculated using average monthly temperature and the total

precipitation amount, which was determined by the net calculation for 2020 (2010-2039), 2050(2040-2069) and 2080 (2070-2099) using greenhouse gas emissions scenarios SRES A2, SRESB2 by model HADCM3 ( Table A3.5.3 ).

Table A3.5.3. Future Trend of Zud Index Calculated by HADCM3 Model

S ZUD

20202.03

20502.28

20804.75

SRES A2 SRES B220201.77

20502.3

20803.94

9 Natsagdorj L Sarantuya G. ON THE ASSESMENT AND FORECASTING OF WINTER –DISASTER(ATMOSPHERIC CAUSED DZUD) OVER MONGOLIA – “the sixth internactional workshop proceedingon climate change in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions of Asia” Aug. 25-26 .2004 UB.pp 72-88

From the table, it can be observed that the future zud index might be higher than the maximumvalue in the past 60 years in Mongolia. This means that it is going to be more difficult to beengaged in animal husbandry and will cause habitual degradation for those animals that do nothibernate in winters.

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Annex 3.6 Desertification Assessment

Within the framework of the baseline study project for “Dynamic of desertification in Mongolia”,new assessment conducted in 2007 by using of land and satellite monitoring data result hasshown that 78,2% of territory of Mongolia has been affected by middle and high rate decertifica-tion 10 (Figure A3.6.1 ).

Figure A3.6.1. Dispersion of Desertification in Mongolia (A.Khaulenbek 2007)

Consequently, desertification impact assessment study results such as 20-30% decreasing 11

of a pasture grassland growth during the last 40 years and livestock vulnerability rise 12, due tothe pasture degradation has shown that desertification issue shall be considered at the NationalSecurity Management level.

The following factors of current desertification process have been identified in Mongolia:

Increase of air temperature during the vegetation growth period that causes to the inten-sive increases of surface evaporation process. In against to this, precipitation has beendecreased rather than increase for the compensation of humid lost from evaporation.

Number of extremely hot days has been increased and it makes a stress to the vegetablegrowth,

Cloudburst occurrences have increased by 20% within annual rainfall in warmest sea-sons, consequently, duration period of rainfall has decreased

10 Mandakh N. Dash D. Khaulenbek A. Present Status of Desertification in Mongolia- Geoecological Issues inMongolia, Edited by J. Tsogtbaatar, UB., 2007, pp. 63-73

11 Bolotsetseg B., Erdenetsetseg B., Bat-oyun Ts. Changes in grassland phenology and yields during the last40 years. – Papers in Meteorology and Hydrology, Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Issue No.24,

2002, UB., p. 10812 L. Natsagdorj G. Sarantuya. On the assessment and forecasting of winter-disaster (atmospheric causeddzud) over Mongolia. – The sixth internactional workshop proceeding on climate change in Arid andSemi-Arid Regions of Asia. Aug. 25-26, 2004, UB, pp 72-88

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Due to snow cover melts in early time, number of soil surface bared days until the vegeta-tion sprout period has increased, consequently, potential occurrences on dust stormshave increased, by the result of surface free particles flowing with the wind

Figure A3.6.2 shows a historical process of surface evaporation and precipitation, during thevegetation growth period, observed at the Tsetserleg meteorological station, which locates inthe central part of Mongolian territory. It is clear, precipitation (P) decreases and evaporation (E 0)increases and differences of these indicators rise for last 40 years. Such ficture has been ob-served almost in the whole territory of Mongolia. We have defined aridity, one base of estimatedamount of differences between precipitation and evaporation and identified intensively aridyplaces ( Figure 3.32 ).

Figure A3.6.2. Historical Data Records on Precipitation and Evaporation at theTsetserleg Meteorological Station

Figure A3.6.3. Equalization Coefficient for Right Angle of Historical Line Trend on Differences between Cumulative Surface Evaporation and Precipitation .

Note: pursuance of 99%, colored fully, 95%-semi colored. 90% of pursuance indicated by triangle, non statistical pursuance-uncolored

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Figure A3.6.3 shows that rapid increases of differences between cumulative evaporationand precipitation occurred at the central and east region by 3-5 mm/year and at the AltaiMountains, Gobi desert farther Ailtai and at South east region by 1.3-2.0 mm/year. This indicatorhas been fixed at the Uvs lake basin and South east boundary area, with up to 90% non

pursuance. Whereas, it has more that 95% pursuance in the central and western part of eastregion it reached to almost 99% of the entire territory of Mongolia.

Recognition of biogeophysical negative feedback mechanism of land ecosystem-atmospheresystem into the regional climate system has greatest important to identify natural and humaninduced impacts of desertification. Feedback mechanism indicators regular monitoring andanalysis has provided an opportunity to investigate climatic desertification process with regardsto the changes affected by human activity. Climate related desertification means differentiatedclimate factors that make activation and enervation desertification spontaineity. A. Aubrevlle,French botanist and ecologist has firstly defined the concept on climate-related desertificationin 1949, while he observed a contribution of climate-related aridity to the desertification process

caused by human effects in African Savanna (Aubrevlle 1949).The theory of climate related desertification developed as hypothesis on sun rise reflection

by Otterman. L. P (1974) within the tiny area, D.G. Charni (1975) in regional area 13. Russianscientist Zolotokrylin A.N. has analyzed relationship between surface albedo and temperaturealong desert and its boundary areas at the south region of Russian and African Sahara, usingland and satellite data. Taking into account this analysis results, he has estimated that adesertification threshold mean is equal or less by 0.5 t/ha from green phytomass annualresources i.e. Normalized Difference Vegetation index (NDVI) mean is equal or less than 0.07(Zolotokrilin 1997, 2000, 2003, 2003). According to his calculation, precipitation threshold valueis 195±5mm for giving appropriate phytomass. In other words, in areas where precipitationoccurs less than 195 mm, a surface energy has been balanced. Then during these 2 decades,period with threshold vegetation index extended by 0.5-1 month, in ecosystems of extreme aridsteppe (semi-shrub, sward, grass) and desert-steppe. This period was shortened in desertarea and in some places it has reduced by month. In other words, the period of summer timehas increased 14. Variation of vegetation index threshold mean has been increased over theGobi region of Mongolia or from the Central Asian desert to Khangai region, through largescale of territories. It shows the occurrence of climate related desertification caused by albedo-precipitation negative feedback mechanism in these areas

Figure 3.33 shows that area takes for NDVId”0.07 was occupied 27 % of the territory ofMongolia in 1982 but it has increased by 21% (48% of total territory of Mongolia) in 2005.

13 Otterman J. Baring high–albedo soils by overqrazing hypothesized desertification måchanizm /Sciånce.1974.Vol.186. ¹4163. pp.531-533/ Charney J.G. Dynamics of deserts and drought in the Sahel-Quart J.royal M-t-orol.Soc 1975 Vol .101 .¹0428.

14

Zolotokrylin A.N. Gunin P. D. Vinogradova V. V. Bazha S. N. The Climate Change and the Plant Cover Condi-tions of Mongolia at the and of XX Centure- Proceedings of International Conference, Ecosysrem of Mongoliaand Fronter Areas of Adjacent Countries: Natural Resources, Biodiversity and Ecological Prospects, Sep. 5-92005, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, pp. 427-429

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Figure A3.6.4. NDVId”0.0.07 /blue/ and NDVI >0.07 /yellow/ spatial pattern Note; a) 10 days interval inAug, 1982, b) 10 days interval in Aug, 2005

Figure 3.34 illustrates remote sensing drought index-RSDI formulated by ScientistM.Bayasgalan, using average mean of 1982-2003.

RSDI formula characterized as following:

Where RSDI- remote sensing drought index, i – point or pixel, j – ten day‘s number (j=1-36),k – year, NDVI max , NDVI min – maximum and minimum factors of NDVI observed during j ten dayperiod on i pixel.

RSDI indicates generally the area of the vegetation green phytomass variability. It indicatesonly variability of vegetation index rather than drought, without identification of drought and

pasture exceeding impacts.

Figure A3.6.5. Historical Average Mean of RSDI estimated by SatelliteData (M. Bayarsgalan 2005)

It shall be considered that a maximum mean of RSDI has observed in the area along border site of Gobi and arid steppe, not in Desert, which is bare in terms of vegetation index valuation.

The climate will be moderately changed in these areas, where landcover degradation bythe negative feedback mechanism impacts. By this point of view, amount of precipitation decreasein the central region of Mongolia and middle area of the Gobi region, during vegetation seasonwould not be extreme cause to the desertification. However, precipitation amount slightly

increased in the western region and south-east boundary areas of Mongolia it is also notguarantee of the pasture eco-system improvement.

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According to study results, it is clear that climate related desertification occurs in centralregion of Mongolia, north-east part of west region and northern part of east region, in largerscale from the desert to other regions or ecoton zone between the Central Asian desert andKhangai region 15 , through the indication as light rain percentage decrease and cloudburst

percentage increase.It is shown by the result of numeral experiment on the land cover parameters variability.

Using the regional climate model, this numeral experimentation was aimed to prove the indicationof the regional climate system‘s biogeophysical negative feedback on the sustainable historicaverage and seasonable mean of climate parameters 16 .

Experiment was performed with the modified version of the National Centre for AtmosphericResearch’s (NCAR) Regional Climate Model (RegCM v.3). /Giorgi et. al. 1993, Giorgi andMearns 1999/. To identify the Land Surface-Atmosphere relationship RegCM v.3 model wasinterchanged with BATS model /Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme/ . /Dickinson et.al.1993/

Regular summer of 1998, decent summer of 1994, and drought summer in 2000 wereselected to this research. On the reanalysed global data of Western British University experimentwas used monthly average mean of air temperature and monthly total precipitation data of 62meteorological stations, located over the territory of Mongolia.Using the land surface classificationrecommended by World Food and Agricultural Organization, experiment was performed throughsuch direction as current reality disturbed by desertification, semi desert replaced by Desert(DSR), short grass replaced by semi-desert ( Figure 3.35a and 3.35b) .

Figure A3.6.6a. Land surface model / classification of vegetation cover,(reality: 1-cultured pasture, 2-arid steppe, 3- coniferous forest, 4-deciduous coniferous forest, 5-broadleaf

forest, 6-broadleaf deciduous forest,7-steppe, 8-desert, 9-tundra, 10-irregated pasture, 11- gobi, 12-ice, 13-marshland,14- basin, 15-ocean, 16-evergreen bush, 17-deciduous bush, 18-mixed bush)

15

Natsagdorj L Various characteristics of vegetation time precipitation over territories of Mongolia Geo-ecologicla issues in Mongolia, num. 5, 2005 pp-157-17716 Natsagdorj L.Gomboluudev. Evaluation of natural forcing leading to desertification in Mongolia-

Mongolian geoscientist, 2005, pp. 7-18

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The calculation was made over region at 41.5 0N-53.0 0N, from 87.5 0E, 120.0 0E. Based uponnumerical simulation, the land mantle parameter variability causes climate characteristicdispersion change in certain level. Occurred changes were observed mostly over the border area between impacted and normal territories ( Figure A.3.5.1 and A.3.5.2, Annex 3.5 ).Particularly, while the daily precipitation decreases in 1.5-2.0 mm within the border area of forest-steppe and steppe regions, in high mountain regions remains unchanged significantclimate temperature changes zone observed mostly in the border area of desert and steppe.Table 3.18 shows monthly variability of climate characteristics associated by land cover (mantle)change.

Figure A3.6.6b. Land Cover Model /Classification of Vegetation Cover, updated.(See explanation on Figure A3.6.6a .)

Table A3.6.1 shows that land surface change impacts is clearly observed at regional aver-age weather characteristics. Therefore, when the surface characterizing (actually vegetation)interaction, the average summer precipitation decreases by 40mm in average, particularly, over the border area of forest-steppe, and steppe regions by 92-140mm. In this case, average sum-

mer temperature expected to increase up to 2-3 oC in desert, steppe regions. Biogeophysicalnegative feedback mechanism of land ecosystem-atmosphere makes a regional climate bal-ance at certain level.

Table A3.6.1. Land Surface Current (CTL ) and Desertified ( DSR ) sensitivity study

Version Numeral Simulations Results. Variation of parameters/

Hydrological cyclePrecipitation mm/dayEvaporation mm/dayRun off mm/dayTop soil reserve moisture/0-10cm/ mmUnderground soil retainedmoisture /1-3m/ mmSurface climateAir temperatureAnemometer relativehumidity %

CTL

2.862.090.3822.7

228.0

16.860.4

DSR

2.311.440.2525.2

143.4

18.548.8

-0.55-0.65-0.132.5

-84.6

1.7-11.6

CTL

2.972.260.4423.6

233.0

20.259.4

DSR

2.531.660.3225.3

161.5

22.049.6

-0.43-0.60-0.121.7

-71.6

1.8-9.8

CTL

2.671.930.4024.2

238.4

17.762.6

DSR

2.361.550.2924.6

179.4

19.055.1

-0.31-0.38-0.100.4

-59.0

1.3-7.5

June July Aug

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Annex 3.7 Dust and Sand Storms Assessment

A dust storm is a meteorological phenomenon common in arid and semi-arid regions of theworld. Dust storms that continue through several days in Mongolia are known as an “ Ugalz” and thesame storms are identified locally in different countries or regions by various specific term. Forinstance, it is called “ Afganets” in Middle Asia. Sand storm is the term prevalent in Russia, Europe,Canada and USA. In Egypt and east regions of Sahara is named “ hasmin”, in northern Sahara is“meheli” , in southern Sahara is “ harmaton” , in Italy and northern regions of Africa – “ sirroka”, inSudan – “ haboob” , in Iraq it’s known as “ samoom” , in China identified as “ huan fin”, which means“yellow dust” and “ hin fin” which means “black dust”.

According to P.S.Zaharov’s record 17 about Russo-Japanese war fought from 1905 through 1906,the dust storm occurred in the Mongolian Gobi desert was carried to northeastward over the territories

of China where it caused an interruption of the battle of Mukden.In recent years, dust aerosols, originated from Mongolian Gobi and Northern China become

familiar in East Asia as “Yellow dust storm” or “Yellow dust” 18. The dry soil particles contained in thedust passes over the Northeast Asia regions of China, Korea, and Japan, can stimulate significantenvironmental damages and affect human health. Recent written records show that the yellow dustof East Asia was found in the ice samples that were deposited nearly 44000 years ago in Greenland 19.

Sand-and Duststorms in Mongolia

Less frequency of dust storm has been identified in the Khangai region, due to weaker wind

velocities, rich vegetation cover and long sustained snow cover. However, even with stronger windpower in Steppe areas, considering the consequence of good vegetation cover and long sustainedsnow cover, the dust storms occur with less frequency in these areas. Sandstorm occurrences aremore significant in urban areas where the soil erosion are caused by human-related activities.Figure has shown this in the certain places as in cities of Moron, Bulgan, Kharaa, Ulaanbaatar andBinder.

The geographical distribution of the number of days with drifting duststorms is shown on theFigure A3.7.1 .

17 Zakharov P. S. Dust storms –L., hydrometeor-publishing., 1965, 164 p18 Regional master Plan for the Prevention And Control of Dust And Sanstorms in Northeast Asia- ADB,

GEF, 200519 P.E.Biscaye, F.E.Grousset, A.M.Svensson; Science. 2000. V.290. ¹5500. P.2258. USA

Figure A3.7.1. Geographical Distributionof Number of Days with Dust Storm

Figure A3.7.2. Geographical Distributionof Number of Days with Drifting Dust Storm

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It is clear from Figure A3.7.2 , that the number of days with drifting duststorms is significantlyhigher than frequency of dust storms, especially in the Great Lake Depression and Gobi desertareas, and it is 30-110 days. The maximum numbers of dust blowing days are 110 in MongolSand region, Altai farther Gobi 50-70 days and Zamiin uud and Arts bogd area has maximum

frequencies.It is noteworthy that the urban area experience more in the number of days with blowing

dust. For instance, blowing dust occurred in 16.3 days in Ulaanbaatar while in Buyant Uhaa, itis 4.2 days. Remarkably, the amount of total number days both with sandstorm and blowingdust have identified less than 5 days in Khangai, Khentii, Khuvsgul mountainous areas, 71-125days around Great Lake Hollow, 70-98 days within Altain farther Gobi area and nearly 80 daysin the region of Arts Bogd. In other words, the significant occurrence of dust flowing arises over Mongol Sand desert area ( Figure A3.7.3 ).

Figure A3.7.3. Geographical Distribution of Number of Dusty Days

In order to indicate dust storm dispersion through desert zone of the Central Asia, a Mapwas developed by using data base on climate information of China Meteorological Administra-tion and Meteorological Services of Mongolia. (Figure A3.7.4) .

Figure A3.7.4. Geographical Disptribution of Number of Days with DustStorm in Central Asia

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hours) within the northern China region. According to this estimation, it is 10 times lesser insevere arid Taklaman desert. But in the national bordering areas as Southgobi, Eastern Gobi,Gobi Altai and Bayankhongor aimag of Mongolia, where it is most windy, the percentage is 30times more. This has matched with geographical distribution of wind speed on the territories

of Mongolia.

Figure A3.7.5. Wind Index of Soil Erosion

The wind threshold speed with 4.5 m/s or higher causing blowing dust and continuouslyoccurred over 4,000 hours a year in the regions of Dornod and Mongolian desert. Particularly,it continues for approximately 4,000-5,000 hours in the eastern spreads of the desert andsouthern areas of Dornod; while it does not exceed 1,000 – 2,000 hours in Khangai region andGreat Lake Depression. This means that the possible deflation of the total annual durationwould occur in the southern spreads of Dornod and the eastern spreads of the desert. Thewind speed significantly increases, especially, during spring and autumn season which makeslikely conditions for soil erosion by wind influence.

Therefore, effective deflation starts at 8 m/s or higher wind speed. The wind duration continuesover 1,000 hours within eastern steppe and Gobi desert regions, particularly, within southeasternregions and eastern spreads of the desert it continues for 1500-2000 hours. ( Figure A3.7.6 )

This shows that the soil erosion effectively appears with wind, by 17-23 percent of theannual duration in a particular territory. But the wind with large speed continues through lessthan 500 hours in Khangai regions and Great Lake Depression. Obviously, the altitude andhollowness of the land significantly affect on the duration of the wind with particular velocity.

Figure A3.7.6. Average Duration of Wind Velocity with 8 m/s or higher (hours/year)

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Dust Contents in the Atmosphere 22

Regular monitoring measurement for dust partular contents in the atmosphere has startedin Mongolia by the assistance of JICA, Japan since September 2007. Four automatic dustmonitoring stations were established on the base of meteorological stations at the most duststorm originating places as Zamiin Uud and Sainshand of Dornogobi aimag, Dalanzagad ofUmnugobi aimag and Ulaanbaatar. Lidar monitoring has been measuring the total dust contentsin the atmosphere, or totat suspended particles (TSP), particulates less than 10 and 2.5micrograms (PM10, PM2.5), vertical distribution of dust from the soil surface up to 18 km above,wind velocity, visibility, etc.

This new measurement database has provided an opportunity to confirm that MongolianGobi area has become a dust source area in Northeast Asia. Dust monitoring results are usedto estimate fine particle dust mean in the atmosphere, highest point of vertical spread etc.,andconsequently, forecast dust storm origination and movement by modeling methodology. Inaddition, seasonal and annual mean air pollution idicators as PM10 in the atmosphere overUlaanbaatar city and another many new research measurements, can be estimated.

Recent observation results indicated that PM10 dust particle contents in 1 m 3 of theatmosphere in Zamiin Uud of Dornogobi aimag reached up to 1,128 micrograms, which ishigher than the monthly average mean by atleast 20 times more. This was particularlyobserved at the severe dust and snowstormthat ocurred on May 26-27, 2008 in territoriesof the eastern aimags of Mongolia ( FigureA3.7.7 ). During this occurence, the Lidar

Observation site located in Zamiin Uud hasindicated that the laser beam was blocked atthe distance of 1 km above the land surface,due to extremely increased dust contents in theatmosphere. Then, on 27-28 May, the dust hasspread out up to about 3 km high. ( FigureA3.7.8 )

22 Source by D. Jugder

Figure A3.7.7. PM10 concentration in Zamiinuud on 25-28, May 2008, mg/ì 3

Figure A3.7.8. Results of Lidar Observation inZamiin uud, 24-29, May 2008

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Annex 3.8 –Assessing Climate Change Impacts in Animal Husbandry

Study on sheep, goat and cattle live-weight and other productivity, in accordance with weathercondition was conducted at the animal husbandry meteorological stations in Orkhon soum ofBulgan aimag, as a representative of forest-steppe, Bayanunjuul soum of Tuv aimag, as arepresentative of the steppe and Bulgan soum of Umnugobi aimag, as a representative of Gobiarea, which are functioning within the observation network of National Meteorological andEnvironmental Monitoring Agency.

Due to the only representative places which were involved in this investigation, result wouldbe inadequate to the whole livestock consideration. However, negative and positive impacts onanimal live-weight and productivity would be different in specific places, the overall tendency ofclimate change impacts on animal husbandry has indicated by the investigation results.

Livestock Grazing and its Changes

The adequate climate formulates normal living condition to livestock with effective productivityand genetic ability. The warm and cold air temperature, wind, precipitation amont, particularly,thick and density snow cover has become the pasturage condition unfavorable for Mongolianlivestock during the entire year 24 .

When air temperature, wind speed, snow thickness and density, and other weatherparameters reach to a critical levels, livestock grazing on pasture restricts. For instance, the

Mongolian sheep mob would be prevented grazing on pasture, if air temperature reached torange 16 oC at the high mountain area, 22 oC in forest steppe and steppe and 26 oC in the desertareas in sunny, cloudless day with low wind in summer season. If air temperature exceeds -30 oC without wind, sheep grazing on pasturage would interrupt within the any landscape ofMongolia. It was estimated that when wind speed increases by 1 m/s, the air temperaturewould be decreased by 1-3 degrees. For example, livestock grazing would prevent when airtemperature is above 15 oC and wind velocity 8 m/s. In other words, the surface wind has beenimpacted positively in summer season and negatively in winter season.

As a result of snowfall quantity, the pasture and nutrition adequacy makes a change, whereasthe snow became a main factor of the animal grazing on the open pasture. Therefore, its

investigation has significant importance. However, pleasant summer took place in the foreststeppe in winter season if snowfall occurs below 5 cm thickness with density less than 0.28 g/ cm 3, and it would be causing difficulty on pasturing, if snow cover thickness reaches 23 cm andit makes hardest situation for pasture grazing. In the steppe, snow occurrence with 5 cm inthickness and 0,24 g/cm 3 in consistent became a negative factor on pasturing and when it hasbeen reached to 18 cm, even snow is mild, the graze pasturing would be inadequate for lambmob ( Figure A3.8.1 )

24

Evaluation method of climate change impact on Mongolian sheep by Tuvaansuren G UB, 1993, page 148,Climate condition impact on livestock sector by Tuvaansuren G, Sangidsranjav S, Danzannyam B - “Orchlon”pibl.,Ulaanbaatar,1996, page 121. Climate Change and Its Impacts in Mongolia /edited by Batima P. andDavgadorj D./- UB., 2000, 199p

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Climate change impact on animal husbandry

Studies conducted based on the 21 years monthly data for 1980-2001 for the meteorologicalstations at Tsetserleg soum of Khuvsgul aimag and Orkhon soum of Bulgan aimag show thataverage weight decreased for ewe by 4 kg, for goat by 2kg, especially sharply decrease hasindicated since end of 1990s (Figure A3.8.2) In other word weight lose tendency in winter-spring season has been fixed. Particularly, ewe spring weight was reduced by 8.5 kg or 0.405kg per year.

On the other hand, some herders and researchers have opinion on that last time animalweight increases generated by fat rather than meat, therefore animal weight lose has beenidentified in winter time due to fat lose (melted down).Average cattle live-weight was indicatedas 263.4 kg in the observation records for 1980-2001. However, weight change vary has fixedby year to year, in total it has reduced by 13.8 kg. Even though, cattle weight was not reducedin summer, autumn time, but it was increased in winter and spring seasons. Livestock weightloses, a reduction of meat productivity consequently has been generated negative biologicaland economical outcomes. Lack of energy, nutrition and weight accumulation in summer andautumn time has been affected on the ability to survive harsh winter and spring time, with lessforage and unpleasant condition.

Figure A3.8.1. Snowfall influence to graze pasturing of baby sheeps in forest-steppe zone / inadequatecondition has indicated above the curve /Source: B.Bayarbaatar, 2002

Figure A3.8.2. Observed Changes in Sheep Weight

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Figure A3.8.3. Sheep wool output changes. Source: G.Tuvaasuren, 2002

Animal that loosed significantly its weight has become a dwarf, due to less ability on takenits normal fat. Reduction of animal meat productivity has causes a weight lost, consequently inthe meat production it would influence as food loss outputs. Therefore, commercial meat supplyand overall national meat resources has been decreased by thousands of tons a year. Therefore,it impacts on herders and government economical revenue lost.

Livestock weight loses and dwarf has been affected on animal productivity. Animal husbandrymeteorological station‘s historical observation records in the forestry steppe show that ewewool outputs decreased by 90 gr or 4.3 gr annually. Individual sheep annual wool loses of 4.3gram would be about 60 tons decrease of total livestock wool output in national level. It wasestimated that if 0.6 m carpet or 1 m wool blanket produces by 1 kg wool, consequently theremight be lost the opportunity on production of 36000 m carpets and 60000 m wool blanket ayear. If this situation would continue, then economical effectiveness of light industry of thecountry will be reduced significantly and that can cause high damage to not only the Livestocksector but also to the national economy. Also, a trend observed on reducing of goat cashmereand cattle wool outputs. For instance, cashmere output of last 20 year decreased by 4,1 g or0.2 g annually. This means nationwide loss about 2.0 tons of cashmere outputs from 11 milliongoats.

In the Table A3.8.1 the increase of weight growth indicated by positive sign and the decreaseindicated by negative sign. There has shown below some calculated data from severalmeteorological stations as an example.

Table A3.8.1 Mongolian Sheep Live-weight Changes on VariableAir Temperature and Pasture Biomass Condition .

Projected temperaturechanges 0C10 C20 C30 C

40

C50 C

-30-4,721-7,113-9,230

-9,350-9,583

-20-4,590-6,987-9,009

-9,070-9,371

-10-4,460-6,861-8,448

-8,682-8,841

0-1,763-4,219-6,435

-6,960-7,602

10-1,510-3,968-6,202

-6,684-7,003

20-1,258-3,718-5,960

-6,502-6,828

30-1,006-3,469-5,718

-6,119-6,611

Change of pasture biomass, %

Hutagt station of Bulgan aimag

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Projected temperaturechanges 0C1 0 C

20 C3 0 C4 0 C50 C

-30-4,956

-7,176-9,073-9,612-9,844

-20-4,828

-7,053-8,154-8,697-9,197

-10-4,700

-6,930-7,350-7,968-8,584

0-2,019

-4,347-6,335-6,796-7,162

10-1,765

-4,101-6,097-6,486-6,943

20-1,510

-3,855-5,859-6,582-6,782

30-1,256

-3,610-5,621-5,211-6,319


Uliastai station of Zavhan aimag

Projected temperaturechanges 0C1 0 C20 C

3 0 C4 0 C50 C

-30-2,626-2,718

-2,959-3,141-4,025

-20-2,510-2,603

-2,844-3,079-3,658

-10-2,395-2,488

-2,729-1,982-3,121

00-0,062

-0,314-0,429-0,762

100,2670,169

-0,084-0,195-0,486

200,4980,400

0,146-0,082-0,125

300,7300,631

0,3760,215-0,012


Dalanzadgad station of Umnugobi aimag

Table A3.8.2 and A3.8.3 shows sheep spring and autumn weight variability through theregional average mean by air temperature changes of 4-5 oC. Sheep weight changes are simillar and depended on ecological zones. Analisys results predicted that degradation possibility togain sufficient weight in any ecological zone in case of the climate warming.

Table A3.8.2 Sheep Weight Changes in Summer withChanged Temperature by 4 oC and Pasture Biomass (%)

Natural zone

Forest-steppeSteppeHigh mountainDesert

-30-51.21-33.34-33.35-23.73

-20-47.76-30.01-29.43-21.11

-10-45.05-23.10-26.05-14.66

0-39.24-20.05-24.83-11.52

10-37.65-17.57-23.04-9.45

20-36.26-15.99-20.62-8.87

30-34.30-12.48-19.82-4.00

Pasture biomass change, %

Table A3.8.3 Sheep Weight Changes in Summer withChanged Temperature by 5 oC and Pasture Biomass (%)

Natural zone

Forest-steppeSteppeHigh mountainDesert

-30-57.37-39.14-42.33-29.18

-20-55.03-35.42-39.64-24.94

-10-50.98-28.93-36.38-17.87

0-43.32-26.19-33.88-7.17

10-40.91-22.98-31.72-3.54

20-39.16-19.55-29.71-0.95

30-36.92-15.66-27.64-0.13

Pasture biomass change, %

The Summer-autumn weight growth decreasing trends, depending on ecological zone andair temperature increase, were observed. It is clear that degradation of pasture plant has becomea main factor on weight loss. In addition, the air temperature influences were observed. However,in gobi region there is identified slight impact of air temperature increase.

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By the results of ECHAM model that has calculated the dispersion value of summer-autumnsheep grazing condition, it is clear that warming impact would be higher in future, in comparisonto other modeling outcomes.

There is clearly identified negative impact on Mongolian sheep pasture graze in summerseason related with warming process.

Table A3.8.4. Forecast condtions of sheep graze pasturing by ECHAM model (%)

NormalDifficultPrevent

Current

25.1436.6038.26

202014.3528.5957.06

ECHAM by SRES A2 ECHAM by SRES B2

20503.8925.2570.86

20800.009.6890.32

202013.1328.5958.29

20503.5624.0372.41

20800.6720.1379.20

By the results of climate change evaluation SCIRO model we have estimated the variation ofsheep graze pasture condition in summer time as shown in Table A3.8.5 .

Table A3.8.5. Future Projected Changes of Sheep Pasture Condition by CSIROModel Results /%/

NormalDifficultPrevent

Current

25.1436.6038.26

202019.9138.1541.94

CSIRO A2 CSIRO B2

20506.4528.4865.07

20800.0014.9185.09

202013.7930.1456.06

20503.8928.2567.85

20801.8923.8074.30

As a result of the estimated above mentioned 3 models, it shows the comparative percentageregions where the sheep graze on pasturage interrupted during summer season would be asare approximately 40-60% of the total territory in 2020, 65-70 % in 2050, and 70-90 % in 2080,.The Figure 3.52 shows the future tendency on slight reduction of regional areas with unfavorablesheep pasturage condition, affected by cold temperature

Figure A3.8.4. Climate Change Impacts on Sheep Graze on Pasture Condition

The influence of winter cold temperature on the sheep pasture

One of the negative impacts on animal pleasant grazing during spring-winter seasons is thecold weather condition. Cold weather influences on the significant loss of the animal’s body

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Table A3.8.6. Forecast on Sheep Pasture Winter Condition Estimated byHADCM3 Model Results /%/

PreventDifficultNormal

Current

36.2647.276.46

202030.0350.2819.69

HADCM3 SRES A2 HADCM SRES B2

205021.6953.7324.58

208019.9155.5124.58

202028.9251.1719.91

205026.3650.5023.14

208019.9155.5124.58

heat and causes inability to graze on pasture and able to being frozen. When the averageregional temperature reduces to -22- -25 oC, the grazing condition became complicated and theperiod of sheep‘s grazing shortens. It was identified regional wide variability of impacts onsheep’s winter grazing that could be caused to its interruption, in case of climate change

occurrences in 2020, 2050, and 2080In addition to, regional dispertion of negative and positive condition for sheep grazing was

defined, by the research results on cold weather condition, through temperature data analysis,which can be associated livestock pasture interruption. Analysis aimed to determine regionalzones that could be negatively influenced on sheep pasture in 2020, 2050, and 2080 based onHADCM3, ECHAM, CSIRO model results by projected climate change.

HADCM3 model results. The percentage of the entire region which is pleasant and unpleasantfor the sheep pasturage under the influence of the cold winter temperature was calculated andshown in Table 3.26.

The other climate models show the similar results on the decrease of temperature stress to

the sheep grazing in the winter season. Figure 3.1.2.9 shows the compared size percentage of regions with the condition of pasturage prevents identified by HADCM3, CSIRO, and ECHAMmodels.

Figure A3.8.5 Climate Change Impacts on Sheep Graze Pasture

The above graph shows future tendency of decreased area size of regions with the sheeppasturage prevents affected by cold winter temperature, identified similarly by all models that.According to temperature change analysis results, estimated by ECHAM model, territorial areawith sheep pasture prevents would decrease up to 15% in 2020, 5% in 2050, and only 1% in

2080, which has shown the maximum warming output. Slight reducing trend observed by theCSIRO and HADCM3 models. It would be possible tendences that cold condition, with sheeppasture prevents would decrease in the Gobi and steppe regions.

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According to climate warming process the regional zones and number of days with pasturageintterupt, due to cold temperature has been decreased in winter time. Only temperature influencehas considered there rather than snow inlfuence consideration. Cold season annual precipitationchange clearly described in other section of the report.

Climate change impacts on the Sheep weight changes

The weight change means the indicator that integrated various live circle changes of theMongolian sheep and environmental impacts on it. The growth, fredelity, ability to live andanother defferent additional facts are all depend on weight change. During this analysis, trendson ewe weight changes in winter-spring period was assessed by 2 models such as EKZNJTZand EKUKJTZ, using data outputs of climate change condition impacts on ewe weight, estimatedby HADMC3 model. The changes of pasture biomass at 37 meteorological stations representingdifferent geographical regions of Mongolia, estimated by CENTURY model, was used to evaluate

the influence of climate change on the pasture growth in the future, within certain time andspace.

Based on the estimates by dynamic-statistical model for sheep weight change, the formulafor estimating daily energy balance has been written as following:

Wei=Wpi-(Woi+Wmi+Wni+Wci+Wti+Wfi+Wli)

Where, We – energy balance; Wp - energy intake; Wo - energy requirement for basic

metabolism; Wm - energy requirement for grazing; Wn - energy requirement for warming ingestedmaterial; Wc - energy requirement for digestion; Wt - energy requirement for maintaining bodytemperature; Wf - energy requirement for fetus growth; Wl - energy requirement for milkproduction. Unit: kcal day-1; i –model time step, day

The climate change impacts on sheep weight during winter-spring season . Mongoliansheeps even during the cold temperature, snow cover on pasture, dust and snow storm, strongwind and lack of grassrange can survive with optimal spending of their accumulated bodyenergy from the gained weight and successfully multiply by producing young in spring grazingon open pasture during winter-spring time.

Assessment of climate change impacts on sheep weight during winter-spring period wasconducted using local simulation models based on the weather and pasture grassland actualdata.

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Annex 3.9 Assessing Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture / Arable Farming

There are many historical evidences, proving that Mongolians dealt with agriculture fromthe ancient time. But during the recent few centuries agriculture was almost abandoned andonly from the 1950s Mongolia started to cultivate new lands. The new policies of developmentof this sphere and those of supplying the nation with flour, produced by domestic industrieswere implemented.

In result of implementation of the above mentioned policies Mongolia has highly skilledprofessionals, specialized in agriculture, and the total square of cultivated lands reached 1.3million hectares. Mongolia applies new technologies, which are suitable for the local soils andclimate conditions. There are guaranteed reserves of cultural plant and crop seeds of highsorts. The entire field of agriculture is well-equipped with advanced and fully mechanized

techniques.By their geographical situation, soils and climate features the agricultural lands occupy

three main regions Figure A3.9.1

Figure A3.9.1. Main Locations of Agricultural Land Regions

First region: It lays on dry steppes and steppes area i.e. the Eastern region of the country.The soils here are basically powdery and rich with carbonates, dark brown and brown. Thereare many other types of soils as well. This region lays on the territory of the Khentei andDornod aimags and on the Northern part of the Sukhbaatar aimag.

Second region: It lays on forest-steppes and steppes area i.e. the Central agricultural region.The soils here are basically black earth. This region lays on the territory of the Tuv, Selengeand Bulgan aimags, the most of the lands of the Uvurkhangai aimag, on the Eastern part of theArkhangai aimag and on the South-eastern part of the Huvsgul aimag.

Third region: It lays on the mountainous area i.e. the Western agricultural region. The soilshere are basically brown and black earth. This region lays on the territory of the North-westernpart of the Zavkhan aimag and on the Eastern part of the Uvs aimag.

In 1986-1990 years, Mongolia sown crops on the area of average 645.0 thousand hectares,

wheat seeds were sown on nearly 500 thousand ha. Potatoes – on 11.2 thousand ha, vegetables – on 3.5 thousand ha. For satisfying domestic needs for provision the 770.0 thousand tons of crops were harvested, wheat - 633.0 thousand tons, potatoes -127.0 thousand tons, and

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vegetables - 46.0 thousand tons. The excessive part of the harvests was exported to theinternational market.

Total area of planted potatoes, sown wheat of Mongolia and harvests are shown in TableA3.9.1 below. ‘Before 1990 Mongolia was capable to satisfy own domestic market needs forwheat, but soon later the wheat harvests dramatically got down (Table 3.1.2.11 and 3.1.2.12).The average of the recent years shows that Mongolia is capable to harvest wheat that satisfiesonly 40 % of total domestic needs.

Table A3.9.1. Agricultural Areas and Crop Yields.

Years

19601965197019751980198519901995200020052006

2007

Area sownwith wheatseeds,thousand ha214.5362.2348.0315.6408.2482.1532.9348.5194.9159.1126.2

121.8

Wheatharvested/ thousandtons/

215.5319.6288.1413.0229.8688.5596.2256.7186.274.0139.0

109.6

Wheatharvestedfrom 1 ha/ centners/ 10.08.88.313.15.614.311.27.49.64.810.8

9.4

Areaplanted withpotatoes, ha

2215.22733.22873.74309.07450.910338.112167.06225.77882.69757.810723.411461.5

Potatoesharvested/ thousandtons/ 18.524.322.042.339.3113.9131.152.058.982.8109.1114.5

Potatoesharvestedfrom 1 ha/ centners/ 83.488.876.698.152.8110.1107.783.574.784.8101.799.9

Note: 1 centner = 0.1 tons

Table A3.9.2. Ratio between demand and supply of the wheat in 2001-2006 (October/September)(thousand tons)

Total supplies

Domestic harvestsImport

Aid from abroadTotal demandsFood consumptionOther needs 1

2001402139243

4440229250

2002374123191

4337429758

2003389160209

4138930351

2004406136236

3940631245

200537574251

3537531837

2006

139260

????????

2007

110261

????????

Source: FAO/GIEWS food balances and Mission’s estimates for 2006/07.1 Other needs mean demand for wheat seeds for sowing.

The food demands of average Mongolians are basically needs for potatoes and vegetables.Domestic harvests of Mongolia are sufficient to satisfy 60-70% of domestic needs for thesetypes of food. Although the domestic harvests of potatoes and vegetables are increasing, their

market prices are still high for the low hygienic quality of the vegetables, imported from China.The domestic demand for Mongolian origin vegetables remains very high. /Joint Food SecurityAssessment Mission to Mongolia, April 2007/.

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Food safety and quality guarantees

Food safety and quality guarantee means the particular food meets quality standards and isfree from contamination with microorganisms, which may provoke infectious diseases that affecthuman health and free from the contents of harmful chemicals.

In Mongolia permanent controlling and monitoring of the quality and safety of importingfood during entire trace from the moment of importing until supplying the consumers are weakand inappropriate. The conditions of food transportation, storage and sales are inadequate,which undermines the safety guarantees. The 5% of meat and meat products of the highestdemand, 2.3% of milk and dairy products are produced using industrial methods. As for the restof percentage, it is supplied by private traders or through so called “black markets”. Storageand transportation of food requires abiding with certain regimes, so it is quite doubtful that thecurrent infrastructure and private trading conditions can guarantee food safety and quality.

More than 30% of infectious diseases in Mongolia are caused by consuming food products,which do not meet hygienic and safety requirements and by the environment that violatessanitary requirements. The major part of infectious diseases is caused by bacillus and bacteriathat provoke gastroenterological disorders and intoxication. 25 From the studies it is seen thatspread of infection, provoked by food origin bacteria in 2005 year, if to compare with 2003 year,is increased by 11,2%. In 1995-2000 years the rate of oncologic disorders among the populationgot increased, among them dominates cancer of liver, it proves that the population consumedfood with no safety guarantee.

Nutrition facts of food

Food of everyday consumption of the Mongols are flour, meat and dairy products (SeeTable 3.1.2.14), and consumers takes from such food nearly 86 % of the daily calories needed.Although Mongolia leads in meat consumption in the World, 55 % of the daily calories consumerstake from vegetables.

Table A3.9.3. Domestic Harvesting of Potatoes, Vegetables andFruits and their Import (thousand tons)

PotatoesHarvestedImportedVegetablesHarvestedImportedFruits andberriesImported

1989

155.5

59.52.7

3.4

1990

131.1

41.72.1

3.5

1995

522.9

27.31.8

2.6

1999

63.89

390.1

8.4

2000

58.913

441.1

11.4

2001

5822

44.50.3

12.1

2002

51.936

39.70.1

18.7

2003

78.7474

59.60.1

23.3

2004

80.21 035

49.20.6

22.9

2005

82.81 383

64.10.2

22.6

2006

109.135.6

70.44.3

15.3

2007

11430.2

76.41.9

17

Source: NSO.

25 Public Health Report -2006, issued by the MPH of Mongolia

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Table A3.9.4. Average yearly food consumption per one consumer (in Kg)

Meat and meat products

Milk and dairy productsFlour and bakery productsRicePotatoesOther vegetablesFruitsVegetble oilFish and sea foodSugar and confectionery

200197.2

100.8110.415.626.416.83.66.02.412.0

200297.2

100.8110.415.626.416.83.66.02.412.0

200398.4

130.8114.018.031.218.04.88.40.012.0

200494.8

138.0105.618.033.616.86.08.41.212.0

200599.6

140.4118.826.443.225.212.012.02.416.8

Average97.4

122.2111.818.732.218.76.08.21.713.0

Although consumption of potatoes, vegetables and fruits by the consumers, especially bythose, living in urban areas, is increased for the recent years, the rate remains low. Consumptionrate is lower than that of the Asian standard.

The fact that the Mongolian consumers cannot consume food rich with valued nutrientsaffects the public health, immunity of people gets weakened and they become vulnerable andless resilient to health disorders. Various public health and food studies prove that healthy

growth and physical development of the children slows down.The researchers state that increase of infectious diseases and oncologic disorders, allergies,

and body joints disorders (arthritis, arthrosis, rheumatism, ostheohandrosis) is closely relatedto the fact that food is poor with nutritional value.

The research studies performed by the Public Health Institute of Mongolia /PHIM/ showsthat daily food of average Mongolian consumer grown short in calories in 12 times the permittedstandard of 2200 k\cal. Protein became 2 88.6- 105.4 gr, fat 77.6-90.1 gr, carbohydrates 213.8-290.7 gr a day. This leads to misbalance of nutritional substances in organism. A member ofthe family with the income lower than the lowest guaranteed income and poor livelihood getsonly 58.1-68.5 % of the daily calories needed. It is a far low indicator.

One of the main indicators, determined on the objectives of the Millennium Development ofMongolia, is the fact that Mongolia started to put much of attention to minimize nutritional

Source: NSO.

Table A3.9.5. Daily Calories per Consumer (%)

Meat and meat productsmilk and dairy productsFlour and bakery productsVegetablesFruitsSugar and confectioneryTea, Coffee, drinks

spicesTotal

National average2011553161

4101

Urban areas177594161

6101

Rural areas2316522050

2100

Ulaanbaatar157585161

7100

Source: 2002/03 HIES/LSMS.

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deficiency among the children under 5 years old. But the research studies of the PHIM stateone of every four children under 5 years old is behind in height than others, one of eight isaffected by anorexia, 32% are affected by rachitic and dystrophy. 43.6% - suffer iron deficiencyand anemia.

Climate change impacts on harvesting and agricultural products

Changes of the past time

The network of measuring and assessment of agro-meteorology and agro-climate in Mongoliawas first established in 1959 year, the Table A3.9.6 shows monitoring results, taken from variousmeasuring stations:

Table A3.9.6. Location of Stations and Measurements Taken

¹

12345678

91011121314

Names of thestationsDarkhanYuruuTarialanUgtaalKhankhgolBaruunkharaaBaruunturuunErdenesant

Orkhon(Selenge)KhutagJargalantIngettolgoitTsagannuur Kharkhorin

Agricultural regions

Central Agricultural regionCentral Agricultural regionCentral Agricultural regionCentral Agricultural regionEastern AgriculturalregionCentral Agricultural regionWestern AgriculturalregionCentral Agricultural region

Central Agricultural regionCentral Agricultural regionCentral Agricultural regionCentral Agricultural regionCentral Agricultural regionCentral Agricultural region

Longitude

105.9849.7549.648.2747.6248.9249.447.2

49.1549.3748.5249.4550.147.2

Latitude

49.47106.67102105.42118.52106.0794.6104.25

105.4102.7105.9103.95105.43102.77

Height above theSea level m7066761236116068881112321356

74893312008008001430

Changes harvesting

The rate of harvesting within the agricultural regions in Mongolia fluctuates year after year, depending on the weather precipitations. The diagram below shows fluctuation of wheatharvesting rate for many years.

Figure A3.9.2. Spring Wheat Harvesting Rate Fluctuation for Many Years

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Table A3.9.7. Coefficient of Changes in Timing of Wheat Growth

Name ofstation

TarialanYuruuOrkhonUgtaalDarkhanBaruunkharaaBaruunturuunKhutagKhalkhgolAverage

Year

65-0766-0670-0780-0785-0798-0785-0786-0686-07

Length ofmaturewheat423835272116151513

Germination–emergence

-0.28-0.18-0.19-0.003-0.31-0.63-0.190.620.38-0.09

Emergence-Double ridgeappearance-0.38-0.12-0.1-0.290.13-0.380.320.15-0.31-0.11

Spikeletinitiation –Heading0.060.160.050.12-0.240.16-0.15-1.10.23-0.08

Heading-Maturing

-0.190.12-0.170.05-0.03-0.07-0.18-0.450.56-0.04

Maturing-Grainfilling

0.13-0.16-0.34-0.160.06-0.17-0.27-0.61-0.40-0.21

The average cumulative air temperature, favourable to wheat growing, starting from 1 st dayof May when the stages start to be observable, was assessed. The sinusoid shall show thefluctuation between the maximal and minimal temperatures, all the assessments andmeasurements were done using INSTAT.

Since there was some warming observed during the last time, so almost all stations indicatewarming trend of the air temperature per each stage of growth.

The table below shows coefficient of correlation between the time span of each stage ofwheat growth and cumulative favourable air temperature.

Table A3.9.9. Coefficient of Correlation between the Time Span of each Stage ofWheat Growth and Cumulative Favourable Air Temperature.

Name ofStationTarialan

YuruuOrkhonUgtaal

Germination -emergence0.44

0.260.820.50

Emergence-Doubleridge appearance0.40

0.670.370.20

Spikelet initia-tion – Heading0.20

-0.05-0.07-0.14

Heading -Maturing0.35

0.670.300.35

Maturing-Grainfilling0.24

0.49-0.11-0.15

Table A3.9.8. Cumulative Temperature at the Time of Each Stage

Name ofStationTarialan

YuruuOrkhonUgtaalDarkhanBaruunkharaaBaruunturuunKhutagKhalkhgolAverage

Germination -emergence189

201265179163341218242262229

Emergence-Doubleridge appearance398

457510414311627416457474452

Spikelet initia-tion – Heading689

749822733737908691813870779

Heading -Maturing812

9049828568001022803961951899

Maturing-Grainfilling1127

122512721149120213731171125613421235

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DarkhanBaruunkharaaBaruunturuunKhutag

KhalkhgolAverage

0.570.520.090.15

0.180.39

0.000.410.680.40

0.150.36

-0.120.00-0.09-0.20

0.540.01

0.180.060.460.24

0.230.32

0.340.25-0.110.56

0.620.24

From the above table is visible that at the stage between spikelet initiation and headingwheat growth is less dependable on cumulative favourable air temperature.

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159,000 hectares of forest land has been deforested and transformed into steppe anddesert areas; and

the production quality of 1,230,000 hectares of forest area has declined.

Therefore, boreal area, adapting to continental, dry ecological conditions, has degraded,and 16% of the total forest ecosystem has been replaced by other types of ecosystems.

According to various statements, there is data demonstrating that from 1974 to 2000approximately 1.6 million hectares of forest area has vanished. Forest resource deficiency anddeclining quality occurred as a consequence of the unsystematic grazing of livestock, miningoperations, illegal timbering for firewood and industrial and construction use, haymaking inareas close to forest zones, noncompliance with the Forest Law of Mongolia and damage fromharmful insects and pests.

Reforestation activity has been underway in Mongolia since 1971 with the purpose of replenishing forests depleted due to above mentioned numerous negative impacts. A reporthas confirmed that 84,000 hectares of forest cover has been re-established in total. Outcomesof reforestation and tree planting have been inefficient and with low quality because of inadequatetechnology and unpleasant climate conditions. Logging activities in Mongolia started in the1950s; 12 centralized state timber production enterprises were established in the northern,central and other aimags with available forest resources.

In terms of age, Mongolia’s forest is mostly old growth forest that is distributed on inaccessiblemountain slopes. Therefore, timber has been harvested more in areas suitable for equipmentand transportation operations. From 1970 to 1980, when the forest industry was being intensivelydeveloped, electric sawmills and mechanical chain techniques were introduced for timber harvesting purposes and used to cut up to 2 million cubic meters of timber annually. During thetransition period towards a market economy, due to the decline of the state owned enterprises,the timber harvest decreased by up to 400,000-500,000 cubic meters a year. According to astatistical data source, from 1940 to 2000, a total of 320,000 hectares of Mongolian territorywas used to cut up to 43.8 million cubic meters of timber.

The regulation on forest use contracts, Resolution No. 125, was adopted by the MongolianGovernment on June 22, 1998. The long-term forest use contract establishes the obligationsand responsibilities for logging and wood processing, as well as, forest restoration and recovery.Pursuant to this regulation, a contractor has the opportunity to acquire and use certain amountsof forestland area for a specific term. The term of the contract can be for 15-60 years with the

possibility of an extension of up to 40 years. Timber harvesting has been carried out accordingto this regulation from 1995 to the present day.

The wood industry cut an average of 2.2 million cubic meters in the mid-1980s, 860,000cubic meters in 1992, and only 500,000 cubic meters in 2000 for timber production. Reductionin the annual output of timber production is associated with policy changes and the structuraland management reorganization of the wood industry. These changes were pursuant to, andin accordance with, the privatization process of state owned enterprises and decentralizationof authority.

Moreover, the forest utilization zone has significantly changed. Over the years, a great areaof forest that had been classified for utilization has been reclassified as protected. Forestdesignated for utilization has decreased as follows: from 5.8 million hectares in 1985 to 2.4million hectares in 1990, and further, to 1.19 million hectares in 1996. The Forest Law of Mongolia, adopted in 1995, has prohibited clear-cut harvesting and permitted exclusively

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selection-cut upon basic utilization. In addition, the logging process has generated massivewaste and ineffective outcomes. Logging waste was 25-30% during the technical methodsperiod of clear-cut harvesting; it has likely increased up to 55-60% during the period of selection-cut harvesting.

Currently forest exploitation has become an income source for the poorest households inMongolia. It occurs in protected green zones because of the close proximity (green zones areestablished around towns and villages), the low cost and the assortment of resources of adequatequality. Currently, one of most critical problems is that cedar and spruce, which have occupieda small percentage of the overall forest area in Mongolia, have been cut in larger amountsduring recent years. This is due to the objective of maximizing commercial profit by minimizingcosts and labor effort.

Forest insects and diseases . Research results have identified 400 species of insectsincluding 40 that are severely harmful such as the Siberian silk moth (Dendrolimus superanssibiricus), Pine-tree lappet (Dendrolimus pine), Sirex woodwasp (Sirex noctilio), Spicebushswallowtail (Papilio troilus Linnaeus), Pine moth (Dendrolimus pini L.), Geometrid (Caripeta) ofYakobson, Larch wooly adelgid (Adelges laricis Vallot), long-horned beetle, flat bug and barkbug. Harmful insects and diseases are becoming the primary factors that negatively impactforest ecosystems which are fragile; these insects have significant ecological implications forMongolia.

Over recent years, negative influences on forests, such as climate change, aridity, forestfire, harmful effects of human activities on biological systems, and harmful effects of insect anddisease propagation have caused hotbeds of damaging activity that have led to critical injury.This injury is on the scale of environmental disaster. Six hundred species of insects are recorded

in Mongolia. In recent years, the Siberian silk moth, Pine-tree lappet, Sirex woodwasp, Spicebushswallowtail and Geometrid (Caripeta) of Yakobson have propagated remarkably and generatedinjury hotbeds.

Lepidoptera, an order of harmful forest moths, have propagated once in the period of 8 to12 years generating forest damage. The significant propagation of moth populations, such asthe Siberian silk moth, Pine-tree lappet, Spicebush swallowtail, Sirex woodwasp and Geometridof Yakobson, has harmed forests, spreading over certain areas every year since 1998. Forexample, there was a massive propagation of harmful insect populations, such as Geometridof Yakobson and Spicebush swallowtail in 2007-2008, and of the Siberian and pine-tree lappetmoths in 2008-2009. Further, injury hotbeds have intensified since 2006, due to environmental,

weather and other factors.In the following forest areas of Mongolia the specified insects have destroyed large areas of

forestland and generated injury hotbeds:

Sirex woodwasps in the forest soums of Uvs aimag;

Siberian silk moths in the Tsenkhermandal and Binder soums of Khentii aimag;

Pine-tree lappets and Geometrids of Yakobson in the green zone forests of protectedBogd Khaan Mountain of Ulaanbaatar city;

Siberian silk moths and Pine-tree lappets in the forest soums of Bulgan aimag;

Pine-tree lappets and Sirex woodwasps in the forest soums of Zavkhan aimag; and

Geometrids of Yakobson, Pine-tree lappets, and Sirex woodwasps in the forest soumterritories of the Uvurkhangai and Arkhangai aimags.

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Forest Fire . According to scientists who study forest fires and the impact caused by thewarming of the earth’s climate, the configuration and evolution of gymnosperms (200 millionyears ago) and angiosperms (100 million years ago) are indicators of forest fire occurrences.Since the period when it began spreading via lightning, forest fire may be considered as a factor

with a certain repetitive frequency generated by a natural path. Air ionizes through large quantitiesof photons, and volatile components generated by flowering plants reduce electrical ressistance.Consequently the probability of a thunderbolt occurrence increases 100 times in vegetationcover over that for the ocean surface.

According to some scientists, there was a positive turn for plant evolution, and the volume of wood species in forests increased, because of the frequency of forest fires before humansappeared on Earth. Forest fires have occurred regularly in Mongolia over the centuries, and itoften positively affected the recovery process as well as the growth of ancient forests and plants.For instance, during the dendro-perological forest study over the eastern regions of Khubsgul andthe northern part of Mongolia, it has been confirmed that naturally created forests with tree

species such as mountain cedar, larch and birch originated from fire.In the meantime, fire occurrences have increased from year to year because of improper

human activities; human acitivity accounts for up to 95% of the total occurences of fire each year.Moreover, climate change and global warming, desertification, and aridic phenomena frequencyhave facilitated adequate conditions for fire to occur and spread.

From 1996 to 1997, precisely 23.1 million ha of forestland and pastureland were burned byfire. This period of fire attracted significant attention worldwide because of the amount of damagethat resulted; the fires destroyed territories that comprised over 30% of the entire forestland. Thishas been recorded as an enviromental disaster by the Food and Agriculture Organization of theUnited Nations. Due to frequent and massive fires, there have been negative effects on forestconditions such as destroyed forest cover, river runoff fluctuation, mountain forest soil erosion anddegradation, along with a further reduction of fire resistance in the forests.

Forest fires occur in the northern part of Mongolia every year with irregular spread. Inrecent years, the density of forest fires increased over certain areas ( Figure A3.10.1 ).For instance, forest fires have been observed over Khentii and the southern areas of Dornod as well as the Orhon-Selenge river basin of the Bulgan and Selenge regions.

Figure A3.10.2. Forest and Steppe FireDistribution (1996-2001)

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There were various critical forest fires that occurred over entire specific regions ofMongolia. For instance forest fires occured in 1965-1966, 1968-1969, 1972, 1976-1978,1982-1984, 1986-1987, 1992-1994, 1996-1998, 2001-2002 (see figure 3). The vertical axisrepresents the number of occurences in one year; the y-axis is the year. ( Figure A3.10.3 )

Figure A3.10.3. Forest and Steppe Fire Frequency

Fire occurrences in Mongolia have specific characteristics. In the forest area the fireseason starts later in the year and ends earlier as compared to the steppe area where thefire season starts earlier and ends later in the year. In addition, there is transfer movementfrom the steppe to the forest and fast fire flaming and a high likelihood of spread in thesteppe area.

Lightning in the mountain taiga is the main reason for forest fires occurring in theforest-steppe and boreal zones. A data source states that burned forest land comprises3.36% of the total forest stock in Mongolia.

During the mid-1990s scientist V. Ulziisaihan investigated the variability of forest types andforest productivity at selected points using the forest dynamic model (FORET). (“Country Study”project by the U.S. Enviromental Protection Agency (EPA) in Mongolia, Project Report-1996;R. Michiddorj and V. Ulziisaihan, “Future Tendency and Change of Biomass of Forests inMongolia,” Ecology and Sustainable Development , Issue 3, UB, 1998, pp 89-97.) This modelestimates growth and the fruit maturation process of specific tree species. (Herman H. Shugart,A Theory of Forest Dynamics, 1984.) In addition, another researcher has calculated the biomassdynamics of larch, cedar, and birch along the Yeruu River Basin using the UKMO model,developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, part of the UnitedKingdom’s national weather service.

The biomass accumulation dynamics of selected trees was estimated in comparative periodsusing the normal amount of ambient air carbon dioxide, as well as, an increased amount ofcarbon dioxide (the mean amount of carbon dioxide was doubled or multiplied by 2). Thiscomparison is shown in Table A3.10.1 and Figure A3.10.3 .

Table A3.10.1. Current Forest Biomass and Increased CO 2 Biomass (mean amount doubled)

Current biomass (t/ha)

CO 2 biomass increaseby twice (t/ha)Difference

Larch(Larix)

101.7

74

27.7

Spruce(Picea obovata )76.3

48.4

28.5

Pine/Cedar(Pinus/Cedrus)76.9

73.6

3.4

Birch ( Betula platyphylla )50.9

48.3

2.6

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The biomass of the following selected tree types (represented in the figures below) areexpected to decline:

Larch (Larix) by 27.2 %

Birch( Betula platyphylla ) by 5.1%Siberian pine/cedar ( Pinus/cedrus sibirica )

Siberian larch ( Larix sibirica ) by 35.3%

Scotch cedar/pine (Cedrus/ Pinus silvestris )

Scotch larch (Larix silvestris) by 4.2%.

Figure A3.10.4. Biomass of the Selected Tree Types

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Annex 3.11 – Vulnerability

Many important aspects of environmental and socioeconomic development are sensitiveand, in some cases, highly vulnerable to climate change.

Impact of climate change: the consequences being witnessed by environmental and socioeconomic systems and, depending on adaptation objectives, consequences can be divided into two types—potential and irreversible

Sensitivity : the level of response of any type of system to climate change. For example,the composition of the system may vary and change in response to the change of ambient temperature or precipitation level

The impact of climate change is being witnessed in different places and in numerous, variousways. In some areas, the negative impact of climate change is irreversible, whereas in otherplaces climate change may bring some benefits or advantages. In either case, climate changedefinitely is having a serious impact on different aspects of socioeconomic life as well as on theenvironment.

Vulnerability (a state of being affected): the level of damage or loss to any system due to climate change. Also, it may be expressed as a level of resilience to overcome

damage or to resist changes. Vulnerability depends on the capacity of a system to undergo this change and also depends on a system’s adaptation capacity. Climate change speed,coverage and scope are important factors that influence any system’s capacity to undergo changes and define its vulnerability.

Little industrial development occurred in Mongolia where mining and animal husbandry arethe dominant economic sectors. For example, the contribution of animal husbandry to Mongolia’sGross Domestic Product was 43.8 percent in 1996. Yet, when the country transitioned to themarket economy in the early 1990s, the agricultural sector fell to 20 percent of the GDP (andanimal husbandry constituted 80 percent of agricultural sector) due to the shift to the miningsector as a result of the increasing prices of minerals prices in the world markets.

Table A3.11.1. Development of Animal Husbandry Sector

GDPIncrease in AnimalhusbandryNumber of labor forceengaged in animalhusbandry

199015.2

199538

44,6

199643,82,4

45,2

200029,1-14,9

48,6

200124,9-18,5

48,3

200422.215.8

40.2

200521.910.7

39.9

200619.57.5

38.7

200720.615.8

37.6

The productivity of animal husbandry is very dependent on the environment and climate inany given year, especially on the drought and zud conditions. During the three years of

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consecutive zuds during 1999-2000 and 2001-2002 about 10,000,000 livestock were lost dueto the zud, i.e., the harsh winter weather conditions. More than 12,000 herder families were leftwithout a means of living due to the loss of their herds, which in turn lead to migration to thecities. Considering the fact that 200 heads of livestock constitutes a means of living for a family

of five, during the above mentioned period around 200,000 people or 50,000 herder familieslost their sources of income. In other words, assuming that there are two persons of workingage in a single family, more than 100,000 people became unemployed. Therefore, the loss of livestock has had a devastating effect not only on the livelihood of the herders but has directlycontributed to economic instability. Indeed, the phenomenon of dzud creates the real disaster for nomadic pastoralism.

The mortality of adult livestock can be affected by short, temporary and unfavorable weather conditions such as snowfall, thunderstorms, flood, sandstorms, dust storms and strong winds,as well as by drought and zud, which are seasonal events. The zud has more devastatingconsequences for animal husbandry than other weather phenomena. The zud phenomenon

rarely causes human life loss. However, malnutrition, fatigue associated with caring for their livestock and the lack of access to the medical services are common issues faced by theherders, and they contribute to the decline in the quality of public health in countryside. Animalcorpses pollute the winter and spring herders’ stands as well as the rivers and lakes where thecorpses are washed with spring water. 26

During the zud, not only are the livestock affected, but also wild hoofed animals suffer froma lack of browse, leading to the decline of their populations and the change of habitat. For example, marmot, mice and other rodents often perish in their dens during the winter due to theunavailability of food after a summer drought. The annual national statistics from 1940demonstrate that on average 3.8 percent of the total number of livestock die per year; however,

in the years with either drought or zud, the number of deaths increased to anywhere from 6percent to 31 percent of the total livestock.

From April 15 to April 20, 1980, heavy snowstorms (named “Sunjidmaa” by meteorologists)—which occur in the three western provinces of Mongolia—claimed the lives of 800,000 livestock,81 percent of total of adult livestock mortality that year. In recent years, the National StatisticalOffice collected (and continues to collect) data about the livestock mortality from those provinces,which have been declared by the National Emergency Agency as zud affected areas. Nationwidedata, coming from other provinces has not been incorporated, and comprehensive nationaldata on livestock mortality is not available. Therefore, the severity of the dzud is assessedbased on the ratio of the unnatural deaths of adult livestock to the last year’s inventory of totallivestock, being expressed in percentage ( N%). The calculation of this value takes into accountlivestock deaths clearly not attributable to the zud, like in case of spring snow storm of 1980.

Data on monthly average temperature and average precipitation level from 47 meteorologicalstations throughout the country were analyzed to generally assess the climatic conditions duringphenomenon of the zud and used to develop a hypothesis that whenever the summers are dry(or drought occurs) and the winters are harsh, the livestock mortality rate would be higher.Summer is characterized as dry or a drought if there is less rainfall and considerably warmer than average summer temperature; winter is characterized as harsh if it is a colder than averagewinter, with heavy snowfall and snow cover. These extreme and unusual seasons have beenassigned different indeces.

26 Lessons learnt from zud phenomenon, JEMR printing house, Ulaanbaatar, 2000

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There might be many factors that lead to the increase of mortality of adult livestock. Theseinclude snow cover on pastures, the density of the snow cover, the number of days unfavorablefor grazing, and the number of days with snowstorms. Although there are many factors thataffect livestock mortality, one indicator must be selected to represent the main characteristics

of climate conditions in order to predict the trend of summer drought and winter zud.

Table A3.11.2. Correlation Matrix of Adult Livestock Fall and Meteorological Conditions

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Figure A3.11.1 Correlation between zud Index and Adult Livestock Mortality

If to define S, S winter , S summer linear and non linear coefficients in terms of meaning of adultlivestock mortality, there is no correlation for camel, whereas for horse and cattle higher thanfor sheep and goat.

Correlation between S and N per each area is not the same: in the Arkhangai, Bulgan,Zavkhan, Tuv, Uvs Aimags (provinces) R 0.50; but, in the Bayan-Ulgii, Dornogovi, Dornod,

Uvurjhangai, Sukhbaatar and Selenge Aimags tangible dependence was not observed ( Figure3.14 ). It can be seen that mutual dependence between the Selenge, Khentei and DornodAimags, where snow does not fall much, is weak. Upon review of the mutual dependence of S

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and N per each type of cattle (excluding camels), some decrease can be observed in goatsand sheep in the Dornogovi, Umnugovi, Dundgovi, including Sukhbaatar and Bayan-Ulgii Aimags,which lay within the desert areas. As for the horses of the steppe areas (the Dornod, Sukhbaatarand Khentei Aimags), mutual dependence is weakening. As for cows, dependence between

S and Cows in almost all Aimags (excluding Bayan-Ulgii) remains high, except for probablecorrelation dependence. ( Figure A3.11.3 ).

The main husbandry area for the cattle herds is the mountainous belt of the Khangai, wheredependence is tangible. Foraging bases are well supplied, and there are Buriat tribes amongthe local herders, who have strong herding skills. Correlation dependence is weakening, whichis quite normal.

Figure A3.11.2. Dependence (R) between affectedperishing horses and camels ( N) and heavy

snowfalls

Figure A3.11.3. Dependence (R) between affectedperishing cattle ( N) and heavy snowfalls index

S

On one side, desertification is getting intensified and regeneration of pasturelands slowsdown; on the other side, the number of hot weather days in a year is getting higher, so thenumber of days for the cattle to graze is getting fewer. 29 As grass and forage for cattle becomesscarce, the cattle lose weigh, strength and can even starve. The herds become vulnerable tothe dzud, i.e., heavy snowfalls.

27 Natsagdorj L. Sarantuya G. ON THE ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTING OF WINTER-DISASTES(ATMOSPHERIC CAUSED DZUD) OVER MONGOLIA - THE SIXTH INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOPPROCEEDING ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN ARID AND SEMI-ARID REGIONS OF ASIA August 25-26,2004 Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, pp. 72-88

28

Natsagdorj L., Sarantuya G. Tasatsral B. Issues of affected perishing of the bigger cattle and climatechange impacts .–‘Printed thesis of the First Conference of Unlinear Sciences -.UB, 2004, õ.122-12829 Tuvaansuren G. Sangidansranjav S. Danzannyam B. “Climate conditions of the pastureland animal

husbandry. –”Orchlon” Printing LLP, UB. 171 pages

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Cattle are a ruminating animal, which has the biological feature of grazing by wrapping amouthful of grass in bunch with its tongue. Therefore, cattle are the most vulnerable to heavysnowfalls. During the 2000s, the stock of herds has changed significantly. Figure A3.11.3 .shows changes in percentage of cattle and goat stocks within a herd.

Figure A3.11.4. Stocks of Cattle and Goats within a Herd

Figure A3.11.4 demonstrates that the percentage of cattle stocks within a herd in 1944 was10.8%. Then in 1944, there were heavy snowfalls that caused 35% of the stocks to perish bythe end of 1944. In the 1950s, the stocks were increasing, and by 1996, the stocks reached11.9%. The stock then decreased and by 2008, the number of stocks fell to 5.8%. As for goatstocks, previously it was approximately 11-12%, but since the 1990s, the stocks have beenpermanently increasing, and by 2008, the number of stocks reached nearly 46.1% within aherd.

Future Tendency of ‘zud’.

In order to predict future trends of the Mongolian dzuds, the HADCM3 model can be appliedusing GHG emission scenarios SRES A2 and SRES B2. The assessments for the periods of 2020 (2010-2039), 2050 (2040-2069), and 2080 (2070-2099), the monthly average air temperature and the total precipitation should be taken from the national averages as S summer ,S winter , S. The equation, comparing the heavy snowfalls index and the rate of perishing of thebigger cattle, is figured out to assess future trends in 21 st Century.

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Documents

MARCC2009_BOOK 2nd Publication