Mapping Opportunity in the Baltimore Region

Jason SartoriNational Center for Smart Growth

[email protected]

April 12, 2013

• Neighborhood conditions and access to opportunity play a crucial role in life outcomes. (Kirwan Institute, 2007)

• Opportunity:– A set of circumstances that makes it possible to do

something. (Google)– Includes the structures of environmental conditions

that contributed to community stability and individual advancement. (Kirwan Institute)

• Access to Opportunity: Deliberately connecting people to the critical resources needed to excel and succeed in society. (Kirwan Institute)

•Opportunity mapping is a process and a tool that allows us to identify areas of high or low opportunity.

•Can also assess the accessibility of different population groups to various forms of opportunity.

• Where you live generally determines:– The quality of schools your children attend– Access to employment– Access to health care and other services– Exposure to crime– Exposure to environmental and health risks

• Understanding the opportunity landscape in the Baltimore metropolitan region is vital to strengthening the region’s quality of life and making the region more sustainable.

Source: The Kirwan Institute for the Study of Race and Ethnicity, “The Geography of Opportunity: Austin Region,” 2007.http://www.greendoors.org/docs/opportunity_mapping/Austin_Opportunity_Report.pdf

Kirwan: Austin, TX

Source: The Kirwan Institute for the Study of Race and Ethnicity, “Connecticut Opportunity Mapping Initiative: Results and Resource Materials,” 2009.http://kirwaninstitute.osu.edu/connecticut-opportunity-mapping-initiative-results-and-resource-materials/

Kirwan: Connecticut

Source: The Kirwan Institute for the Study of Race and Ethnicity, “Equity, Opportunity, And Sustainability In The Central Puget Sound Region,” 2012.http://www.psrc.org/assets/7831/EquOppSusReport2.pdf

Kirwan: Puget Sound

• Economic Opportunity and Mobility– Number of estimated entry level and low skill employment – Ratio of entry level and low skill employment opportunities

per 1,000 residents – Absolute change in employment from 1998 to 2002– Access to public transit – Median commute time

• Neighborhood Health– Population change from 1990 to 2000– Estimated crime rates in 2000– Poverty Rates for the general population in 2000– Vacant property rates in 2000– Median home value in 2000

• Educational Opportunity– Proportion of FARM students of elementary and middle

school– Proportion of classes not taught by highly qualified

teachers in 2004– Proportion of elementary students proficient in reading – Proportion of elementary students proficient in math

Source: The Kirwan Institute for the Study of Race and Ethnicity, 2005.

Kirwan: Baltimore

• Opportunity Collaborative Process– Comprehensive review of indicators with

Opportunity Mapping Advisory Panel (OMAP)– OMAP meetings include consortium partners

from across the region as well as subject matter experts

– Weighting exercises

Education

Housing and Neighborhoo

d Quality Social Capital

Public Health and

EnvironmentEmployment

and Economic

Transportation and

Mobility

•Headstart Programs•Elementary School

MSA Performance•Middle School MSA

Performance•High School MHSA

Performance•Percent of Teachers

Highly Qualified•Advanced Placement

Enrollment•Advanced Placement

Scores•SAT Scores•High School Dropout

Rate•Proximity to

Community Colleges•Proximity to Private

Career Schools

•Housing Value•Gross Rent•Percent Multi-Family•Dwelling Grade•Housing Costs as

Percent of Income•Cost Burden•Housing Affordability

Index•Housing +

Transportation Index•High Cost Loan Rate•Foreclosure Rate•Vacancy Rate•Crime Rate

•Proximity to Religious and Social Organizations•Proximity to Public

Institutions•Population 25-44•Racial Diversity•High School Diploma•Bachelors Degree•Median Household

Income•Households in Poverty•Labor Force

Participation Rate (16-64)•% of Labor Force (16+)

Unemployed•Population Density•Homeownership Rate•Single Parent

Households

•Cancer Risk•Neurological Disease

Risk•Respiratory Disease

Risk•Proximity to

Emergency Services•Proximity to Social

Services•Proximity to Hospitals•Proximity to

Freestanding Ambulatory Surgical and Emergency Centers•Proximity to Grocery

Stores•Access to Parks

•Access to Employment by Skill Level and Mode•Number of Jobs by Skill

Level• Job Density by Skill

Level

•Proximity to Transit Stations•Walkability Score•Commute

Lengths/Time

Potential Baltimore Opportunity Mapping Indicators

RACIAL DIVERSITY INDEX*•Region – 0.32•Anne Arundel – 0.34•Baltimore – 0.33•Carroll – 0.13•Harford – 0.27•Howard – 0.52•Baltimore City – 0.28

OPPORTUNITY RELATIONSHIP•Direct

DATA SOURCE•U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year Estimates, 2011*Averages of census tracts in

each jurisdiction.

SOCIAL CAPITAL INDICATORSReligious Organizations -0.128Social Organizations 0.112Religious + Social -0.036Public Institutions -0.081Population 25-44 0.436Racial Diversity 1.000% with HS Diploma 0.074% with Bachelors 0.189Median Income -0.013% Poverty -0.067Labor Force Part. Rate 0.135% Unemployed -0.160Population Density -0.001Homeownership Rate -0.204Single Parent Household -0.131

DATA DISTRIBUTION

CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS

MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME•Anne Arundel – $85,690•Baltimore – $65,411•Carroll – $83,325•Harford – $79,953•Howard – $105,692•Baltimore City – $40,100


DATA SOURCE•U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year Estimates, 2011

SOCIAL CAPITAL INDICATORSReligious Organizations -0.531Social Organizations -0.313Religious + Social -0.444Public Institutions -0.280Population 25-44 -0.073Racial Diversity -0.013% with HS Diploma 0.684% with Bachelors 0.709Median Income 1.000% Poverty -0.709Labor Force Part. Rate 0.455% Unemployed -0.530Population Density -0.504Homeownership Rate 0.714Single Parent Household -0.430

DATA DISTRIBUTION


BACHELOR’S DEGREE•Anne Arundel – 36.3%•Baltimore – 35.2%•Carroll – 31.5%•Harford – 30.9%•Howard – 58.7%•Baltimore City – 25.8%



SOCIAL CAPITAL INDICATORSReligious Organizations -0.263Social Organizations 0.043Religious + Social -0.141Public Institutions -0.100Population 25-44 0.077Racial Diversity 0.189% with HS Diploma 0.716% with Bachelors 1.000Median Income 0.709% Poverty -0.487Labor Force Part. Rate 0.371% Unemployed -0.522Population Density -0.258Homeownership Rate 0.313Single Parent Household -0.488

DATA DISTRIBUTION


Social Capital IndicatorsIndicatorWeight

Religious + Social Organizations 9%Public Institutions 7%Population 25-44 5%Racial Diversity 11%High School Diploma 6%Bachelors Degree 10%Median Household Income 9%Households in Poverty 10%Labor Force Participation Rate (16-64) 6%Percent of Labor Force (16+) Unemployed 7%Population Density 7%Homeownership Rate 10%Single Parent Households 3%

Sample Weighting Exercise

MEDIAN HOUSING VALUE•Anne Arundel - $361,700•Baltimore - $269,400•Carroll - $342,900•Harford - $295,900•Howard - $447,000•Baltimore City - $163,700


HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS HOUSING BURDEN/AFFORDABILITYHousing Value 1.00 SMOC as % Income -0.31Gross Rent 0.50 GR as % Income -0.22Improved Value 0.51 Gross Rent/FMR 0.47Age of Structure -0.52 CB - Owner 35% -0.31% Owner Occupied 0.53 CB - Renter 35% -0.23% Renter Occupied -0.53 CB - Owner 50% -0.32Change Total HU 0.02 CB - Renter 50% -0.16Change Occupied HU 0.04 Housing Affordability -0.50Change Owner HU 0.07 H+T Index (Local) -0.64Change Renter HU 0.09 H+T Index (AMI) 0.79% SF Detached 0.64 High Cost Loan -0.77% SF Attached -0.60% Multi-Family -0.23 FORECLOSURES AND VACANCIESDwelling Grade 0.58 Foreclosure -0.78

Vacancy (All) -0.47ACCESS TO VEHICLES Vacancy (Market) -0.48

% Occupied w/o Veh. -0.59 Vacancy (Aband.) -0.43% Owner w/o Veh. -0.57% Renter w/o Veh. -0.62 HOUSING POLICY LAYERS

Housing Capacity 0.19

LOCAL H+T AFFORDABILITY•Housing plus transportation cost as a percent of median income (for the Census tract)

•Region – 46.5%•Anne Arundel – 40.5%•Baltimore – 46.8%•Carroll – 43.7%•Harford – 42.6%•Howard – 38.2%•Baltimore City – 64.5%

DATA SOURCES•H+T Costs: Center for Neighborhood Technology, 2009•Median Income: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year Estimates, 2009

HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS HOUSING BURDEN/AFFORDABILITYHousing Value -0.64 SMOC as % Income 0.30Gross Rent -0.43 GR as % Income 0.30Improved Value -0.42 Gross Rent/FMR -0.42Age of Structure 0.38 CB - Owner 35% 0.38% Owner Occupied -0.68 CB - Renter 35% 0.29% Renter Occupied 0.68 CB - Owner 50% 0.41Change Total HU -0.12 CB - Renter 50% 0.30Change Occupied HU -0.14 Housing Affordability 0.24Change Owner HU -0.19 H+T Index (Local) 1.00Change Renter HU 0.00 H+T Index (AMI) -0.47% SF Detached -0.53 High Cost Loan 0.60% SF Attached 0.36% Multi-Family 0.38 FORECLOSURES AND VACANCIESDwelling Grade -0.24 Foreclosure 0.64

Vacancy (All) 0.49ACCESS TO VEHICLES Vacancy (Market) 0.37

% Occupied w/o Veh. 0.70 Vacancy (Aband.) 0.47% Owner w/o Veh. 0.56% Renter w/o Veh. 0.65 HOUSING POLICY LAYERS

Housing Capacity -0.11

REGION H+T AFFORDABILITY•Housing plus transportation cost as a percent of AMI (region includes Queen Anne’s County)

•Region – 46.5%•Anne Arundel – 52.6%•Baltimore – 45.1%•Carroll – 53.1%•Harford – 49.9%•Howard – 57.9%•Baltimore City – 35.6%

DATA SOURCE•Center for Neighborhood Technology, 2009

HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS HOUSING BURDEN/AFFORDABILITYHousing Value 0.79 SMOC as % Income -0.20Gross Rent 0.51 GR as % Income -0.25Improved Value 0.49 Gross Rent/FMR 0.48Age of Structure -0.62 CB - Owner 35% -0.26% Owner Occupied 0.62 CB - Renter 35% -0.26% Renter Occupied -0.62 CB - Owner 50% -0.27Change Total HU -0.16 CB - Renter 50% -0.19Change Occupied HU -0.15 Housing Affordability -0.21Change Owner HU -0.06 H+T Index (Local) -0.47Change Renter HU -0.01 H+T Index (AMI) 1.00% SF Detached 0.63 High Cost Loan -0.59% SF Attached -0.52% Multi-Family -0.33 FORECLOSURES AND VACANCIESDwelling Grade 0.43 Foreclosure -0.60

Vacancy (All) -0.55ACCESS TO VEHICLES Vacancy (Market) -0.55

% Occupied w/o Veh. -0.67 Vacancy (Aband.) -0.45% Owner w/o Veh. -0.61% Renter w/o Veh. -0.67 HOUSING POLICY LAYERS

Housing Capacity 0.22

INDICATOR TITLEElementary School Performance

DESCRIPTIONAverage combined ‘proficient’ and ‘advanced’ score share of all elementary school Maryland School Assessment scores.

RELATIONSHIP TO OPPORTUNITYDirect

SOURCEMSDE, 2011

Documents

Mapping Opportunity in the Baltimore Region