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100 RESILIENT CITIES
Mapping Opportunities for a Resilient Durban –
Systems Analysis
Public engagement 8 June 2016
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Purpose of Presentation
COLLAPSE
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- Recap of the outcomes of Phase 1
- Phase 2: Provide an overview of the systems analysis and its
outcomes - Outline the key next steps for Durban’s Resilience Strategy
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Durban’s Preliminary Resilience Assessment
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Durban’s 100 RC Programme : Phase 1
The PRA identified multiple resilience themes and grouped them into 6 Resilience Focus Areas.
Preliminary Resilience Assessment (PRA) 2015
Bold and Participatory Governance
Sustainable and
Ecological City
• Leadership • Stakeholder engagement • Governing systems
• Environmental sustainability 1 4
Innovative Place-making
Equitable and Inclusive
Society
• African Urbanism • Services and infrastructure • Spatial planning • Arts and culture • Health
• Social cohesion • Inequality • Gender • Societal values • Crime and safety
3 6
Catalytic and Transformative
Economy
Knowledge-centered
City
• Innovation • Information and knowledge • Education and capacity
building
• Economy 2 5
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The challenge: All the RFAs are important and connected. So what should we prioritise for action?
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Analyse the 6 Resilience Focus Areas
Identify underlying barriers and systemic
challenges
Validate systemic challenges. Engagement helped identify ‘levers of
change’
Jan - early Feb 2016 Feb 2016 March 2016
Synthesis Workshops
Refine system maps and identify intervention opportunities
24 interviews and small group discussions
Key reports reviewed : • IDP (2015),Long-term development
framework, eThekwini Densification strategy, Treasury reports, Spatial Development Framework (2014/15), Green Services and Industry Analysis, South Durban basin multi-point plan, Durban Climate Change Strategy
Major data sources: • Census (2011), Municipal Barometer, IHS
Global Insight, Municipal Services And Living Conditions Survey (2015), Edge Labor Market Research Paper (2013), Constraints to Growth and Employment in SA (2015)
An overview of the Systems Analysis Process
• Workshop with Municipal Technical Team (7 March)
• Workshop with public stakeholders (9 March)
• First discussion with City Planning Commission and EDU (10 March)
Refine the ‘levers of change’
April 2016
Further stakeholder engagement
Refining the six cross-cutting ‘levers for change’ into practical and implementable Resilience Building Options
• Discussions with
the environmental sector, members of the Municipal Technical Team and the Critical Thinkers (22-26 April)
Dalberg Team
Durban Team
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Systems Analysis of Resilience Focus Areas in Durban
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Systems Analysis : Resilience Focus Area : Bold and Participatory Governance
• Bold and ethical leadership at all levels that formulates a positive vision and makes decisions that address immediate and long-term needs
• Commitment by municipality to engage with diverse groups (e.g. youth, women, vulnerable groups, etc.) through formal and traditional governance systems
Outcomes that support a more resilient city
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Existing barriers
• Top-down stakeholder engagement
• Erosion of trust in leadership, reinforced by service delivery challenges and corruption
• Dual governance system with limited coordination around shared goals
• Financial burden of high levels of poverty
21%
23%
30%
38%
2014-15
-44%
2012-13
2013-14
2011-12
79% of citizens were unsatisfied with
municipal consultation in 2014/15
Citizens reporting they are “Satisfied” with
opportunities for consultation on Municipal affairs(%)
Citizen satisfaction with municipal
consultation has been steadily decreasing
since 2011/12
Dalberg Team
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Systems Analysis : Resilience Focus Area : Knowledge-centred city
• A forward-looking culture of learning and innovation to address challenges
• More equitable access to information/data
• A highly capacitated municipality, business sector, citizenry and society with the skills to be innovative and self-sufficient in the face of continual change
Outcomes that support a more resilient city
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Existing barriers
• An under-performing education system that results in low levels of numeracy and literacy and insufficient skills training and job preparation
• Rigid performance management system does not facilitate innovation
2011
2011
2011
2001
Cape Town 2011
2001 Johannesburg
Durban
2001
2011
Percentage of adults (18 years and older) with post matric qualifications (2001 and 2011)
2011
Tertiary education levels are the lowest of the major cities
9%
12%
13%
19%
12%
16%
Dalberg Team
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Systems Analysis : Resilience Focus Area : Innovative place-making
• An urban development model that is locally informed and rooted in a post-apartheid South African context
• A spatial development plan that supports social cohesion, access to services and economic inclusion.
Outcomes that support a more resilient city
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• Legacy of segregated spatial planning means poorer households are far from job centres and transportation corridors, and there is limited racial integration
• Increased growth of informal housing settlements
Existing barriers
Apartheid era racially segregated zoning (1968)1 Present day segregation legacy zoning (2001) 1
Employment hubs
Black population centers
Major transport corridors
Coloured
Blcack
Indian
White
Apartheid Zones Segregation in Durban has not changed significantly since the Apartheid era. Black African residential areas remain further away from major transport networks and hubs of employment.
Dalberg Team
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Systems Analysis: Resilience Focus Area : Sustainable and ecological city
• An urban development model that integrates the health of natural systems with human wellbeing
• Decision-making that takes into account the full value of natural systems and ecological infrastructure
• Ability to balance short-term and longer-term needs
Outcomes that support a more resilient city
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• High levels of poverty placing a heavy financial and environmental burden on the municipality
• Growth of informal housing settlements places stress on the natural environment
• Limited data on the value of natural systems
Existing barriers
53% of the eThekwini Municipal Area (EMA) was classified as transformed in 2013/2014
Dalberg Team
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Systems Analysis : Resilience Focus Area : Catalytic and Transformative Economy 5
Outcomes that support a more resilient city
• An economy that is inclusive, dynamic and competitive locally and globally
• An economy that promotes sustainable prosperity and holistic well-being
• An innovative business, entrepreneur and SME sector
• Educated and skilled workforce
• High levels of unemployment and discouraged workers
• High levels of inequality persists between and within race groups
• In-migration of lower skilled workers and out-migration of higher skilled workers
• High costs of seeking employment and education
Existing barriers
High unemployment in
Durban and increasing levels
of inequality
23%
21%
16%
24%
28%
23%
31%
27%
29%
33%
22%
24%
27%
29%
Durban
Cape Town
Buffalo City
Mangaung
Ekurhuleni
Johannesburg
Tshwane
Strict unemployment
Expanded unemployment
Unemployment rates across major metros (Q4 2015)% 1
0,63 0,62 0,62 0,63 0,61 0,61
20132 2007 2008 2011 20122 2009 2010 2006
0,61 0,64 0,65
20042
0,65
20052
Durban Gini Coefficient (2004-2013)1
Dalberg Team
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Systems Analysis: Resilience Focus Area : Equitable and inclusive society
• A more equitable and inclusive society that promotes a sense of wellbeing, including: improved economic and social opportunities, greater social cohesion and stronger societal values
• Rebuilding of trust and healing within a fractured society
Outcomes that support a more resilient city
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• Legacy of segregated planning limits access and integration
• Under-performing and unequal education system limits economic mobility
• Chronic stressors such as poverty, violence and illness further fracture already fragile family structures
Existing barriers
Poverty headcount rates in female- and male-headed households, 2008/20092
City of Cape Town
Johannesburg 21%
36%
34%
19%
40% Durban
25%
Female-headed households
Male-headed households
40% of female headed households, and 25% of male-headed households are in poverty
Dalberg Team
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Mapping the systemic challenges to highlight linkages and re-enforcing relationships Step 1: Synthesize underlying barriers - to identify common themes and cross linkages
Step 2: Identify systemic challenges – creating the barriers
e.g.
Dalberg Team
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Mapping the systemic challenges to highlight linkages and re-enforcing relationships Step 3: Developing a system map to identify systemic challenges that undermine Durban’s
resilience across multiple economic, social, political and environmental dimensions
Dalberg Team
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Mapping the systemic challenges to highlight linkages and re-enforcing relationships
Unequal spatial planning
Underperforming education system and
weak skills programmes
Strained Communities
Ineffective and unsustainable economic
model
Dalberg Team
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Approach to conducting Systems Analysis and identifying ‘levers of change”
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Systemic Challenge
Systemic Challenge
Systemic Challenge
Systemic Challenge
Systemic Challenge
Analyzing Focus Areas to Identify 7 Systemic Challenges
STEP 1: Evaluate the barriers and challenges within each Focus Area 1
2
3
1
2
3
4
5
6
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STEP 3: Create a map of the Systemic Challenges to highlight linkages and re-enforcing relationships across multiple city systems
STEP 4: Systemic Challenges presented as an input into a stakeholder engagement process to identify intervention opportunities (levers) to drive transformative change by addressing multiple systems/ challenges
Systemic Challenge 4
Systemic Challenge
5
6
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Connecting Systemic Challenges to Identify Intervention Opportunities
Bold and Participatory Governance
Knowledge-centered City
Innovative Place-making
Sustainable & Ecological City
Catalytic & Transformative
Economy
Equitable & Inclusive Society
STEP 2: Identify the cross-cutting Systemic Challenges undermining multiple Focus Areas
Dalberg Team
Workshop participants shared insights and expertise on the city’s systemic challenges.
Municipal stakeholders
identify key players and
intervention points for
systemic challenge areas.
Workshop participants engaged in mapping exercises to build a fuller understanding of the links across the systemic challenges.
Workshop participants
identify key players and
intervention points to address
systemic challenges.
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Engagement Outcome: Six cross-cutting ‘levers of change’ to build resilience in Durban
Complement plans and investments for education by the Province to bridge the skills gap among youth and graduates, and to better match workers to the needs of the private and public sector.
Orient Durban’s economic strategy and growth model to take advantage of emerging opportunities and create a better model that leverages global trends, while promoting equity and sustainability.
More effectively manage Durban’s natural capital assets in order to preserve the city’s rich biodiversity and the valuable services that these ecosystems provide to citizens.
Create an inclusive and integrated spatial plan designed to overcome the legacies of apartheid and provide greater access to opportunities to all citizens across the city.
Improve the overall effectiveness of the municipality, including planning and decision-making, as well as execution and evaluation, to serve all of Durban’s citizens.
Improve effectiveness of
education and skills development
Promote economic growth in line with 21st century trends and opportunities
Manage environmental
assets more effectively
Create a more inclusive and
integrated spatial plan
Improve municipal effectiveness
Support local communities through investments that reduce high levels of stress and strain currently experienced, thereby contributing to building a stronger and more cohesive city.
Strengthen local communities and building greater social cohesion
1
2 3 4 5
6
Dalberg Team
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Refining the six cross-cutting ‘levers of change’
• Six cross cutting ‘ levers of change’ were still too broad for implementation Key challenge
• Stakeholder engagement process was undertaken to identify more specific resilience building options
Further stakeholder engagement
• Practical interventions
• Address multiple levers simultaneously
• Transformative and catalytic in their impact
Resilience Building Options – key
guiding principles
Durban Team
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Resilience Building Options (RBOs) for Durban
RBO 1 : Integrated informal settlements planning
RBO 2 : Addressing governance of Ingonyama Trust land (i.e. traditional authority areas) and related environmental challenges
Understanding the relationships between the formal and informal system and the formal and traditional system are emerging as key resilience opportunities for Durban.
Durban Team
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Resilience Building Option (1) Integrated informal settlements planning
Challenge : Legacy of segregated spatial planning has resulted in an increased growth of informal housing, with service delivery backlogs, poor living conditions and environmental impacts.
Opportunity: Lies in how informal settlements are upgraded to address multiple levers: Skills: Artisanal skills development and training Environment: Exploring innovative approaches to
design for storm water and wastewater management
Governance: Creating new partnerships for implementation
Building social cohesion: Helping to facilitate community based initiatives
Economy: Focusing on the informal economy to provide insights on an alternative economy.
Durban Team
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Resilience Building Option (2) Addressing governance of Ingonyama Trust land and related environmental challenges
Challenge: 37.8 % of the municipal area is under the control of traditional leadership and ITB and there is poor coordination around planning and land use. These areas are high in biodiversity (natural capital) .
Opportunity: To explore whether there are mechanisms available to better understand and formalise decision making to secure important natural capital. Potential to expand this into the town planning and land use management spaces. Environment: Finding mechanisms to formalise
environmental protection and secure natural capital
Governance: Improving existing governance systems and finding new ways to work effectively across the dual governance system
Economy: Exploring new forms of economic opportunity through the application of innovative tools such as payment for ecosystem services and environmental offsets
Durban Team
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Timeline for the key next steps for Durban’s resilience strategy
1. Endorsement for the resilience
building options
Public engagement - 8th June
(June)
2. 100RC Working Groups/Resilience
Charrettes
Convene first meeting of working groups to explore
the Resilience Building Options (
June)
3. Additional 100RC working groups/
Resilience Charrettes
To finalise specific areas for action
(Jul-Aug)
4. Develop work plans for prioritised
action prioritise action
(through the human benefit analysis)
and develop workplans
(Sept –Nov)
5. Draft and Finalise Durban’s
Resilience Strategy
(Jan-Mar)
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Resilience
100RC
Sustainable Horizons
Sustainability
SEA
100RC pilot
projects
Durban’s Sustainability and Resilience Function
CONTACT: Dr Debra Roberts ([email protected]) – Chief Resilience Officer Mrs Jo Douwes ([email protected]) – Deputy CRO www.durban.gov.za/100RC [email protected]
