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MANUFACTURING IN MEXICO.MANUFACTURING IN MEXICO.Reflections.Reflections.
Enrique Dussel PetersGraduate School of Economics
CoordinatorCenter for Chinese-Mexican Studies
UNAM
http://www.dusselpeters.comhttp://www.economia.unam.mx/cechimex
CRIMTOutreach Seminar, “Crisis in the
Manufacturing Sector”Montreal, Canada, March 25
REFERENCES Analysis of different segments of commodity chains in
NAFTA-context:– http://www.economia.unam.mx/cechimex/– http://www.dusselpeters.com
2007. Oportunidades en la relación económica y comercial entre Chinay México. CEPAL, CECHIMEX, Cámara de Senadores y SRE,México.
Con Yolanda Trápaga. 2007. China y México: implicaciones de unanueva relación. ITESM, CECHIMEX, La Jornada, México.
2008. With Luis Miguel Galindo Paliza, Eduardo Loría y MichaelMortimore. Inversión extranjera directa en México: desempeño ypotencial. Una perspectia macro, meso, micro y territorial. Siglo XXI,CECHIMEX y Secretaría de Economía, México.
2009. Monitor de la Manufactura Mexicana. CANACINTRA andCECHIMEX, México.
STRUCTURE Policies and strategy towards manufacturing Conditions: Integration or Disintegreation of
NAFTA? Reflections and proposals
PUBLIC POLICIES Since 1988: EOI + NAFTA
– 1994-2000– 2000/2001-…
Policies towards manufacturing– No short, medium and long-term strategy– Unilateral reduction of tariffs (12/2008)– Temporary support in employment for export-oriented
jobs– “Internal” problems and adjustments (Ministry of
Economy) Tensions with main trading partners: US and
China Policy-expectations in the short and medium run?
CONDITIONS (3)• In the NAFTA-region, CHINA:
• Second trading partner of Mexico since 2003• Main exporter to the US since 2007• Second exporter to Canada
MANUFACTURING (3)(manufacturing: loss of 1.01m jobs 2000/10-2009/01 = 24%;(manufacturing: loss of 1.01m jobs 2000/10-2009/01 = 24%;
600,000 loss 2008/10-2009//02, 55.69% in manufacturing)600,000 loss 2008/10-2009//02, 55.69% in manufacturing)
MANUFACTURING (9)MANUFACTURING (9)(manufacturing: (trade balance) / GDP(manufacturing: (trade balance) / GDP
MANUFACTURING (11)MANUFACTURING (11)(Manufacturing: capacity utilization)(Manufacturing: capacity utilization)
CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY OPTIONS (1) IO: Lack of “territorial endogeneity” and dramatic process of
socioeconomic and territorial POLARIZATION, overall and inmanufacturing
In Mexico: deep crisis of Mexico´s productive andmanufacturing sector; no formal employment generation
Crisis since 2000 and 2008, Asia/China pose long-termcompetition … no solution “yet” … PROFOUNDQUESTIONING OF EOI/NAFTA
NAFTA?– Integration or disintegration? At least 2 phases since NAFTA:
1994-1999/2000 and 2001/2002-2009 …– Potential for deepening and increasing socioeconomic integration
between Mexico and US?– Experience of prior US-recession (2001-2003): massive increase in
Asia/China´s share in the US-market.– NAFTA –formally or informally- without Asia/China? Does it
make sense? NO: China is a NAFTA/regional issue
CONCLUSIONS AND POLICYOPTIONS (2)
Manufacturing:– Long term policies vs. dogmatic short-term visions?– Systemic competitiveness of manufacturing?
Macro, meso, micro, and territorial analysis and policies
Towards a new trade and development agenda beyondsecurity? Deepening trade and development integration?– Deepen current legal and formal socioeconomic frame of NAFTA– Rules of origin? Increase?– Territorial-segments of value-added approach in NAFTA:
autoparts-automobiles, electronics, yarn-textile-garments,chemicals, pharmaceutical, …
– Until today: no explicit approach (or even analysis)– Transportation (see IADB-publication)
MANUFACTURING IN MEXICO.MANUFACTURING IN MEXICO.Reflections.Reflections.
Enrique Dussel PetersGraduate School of Economics
CoordinatorCenter for Chinese-Mexican Studies
UNAM
http://www.dusselpeters.comhttp://www.economia.unam.mx/cechimex
CRIMTOutreach Seminar, “Crisis in the
Manufacturing Sector”Montreal, Canada, March 25