MANHATTAN NEW DEVELOPMENT REPORT - MNS · original prices from the height of the condo market. ... SoHo TriBeCa FiDi BPC ... 10 MANHATTAN NEW DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2Q12 13 13 37 37

1 M N S 1 1 5 E A S T 2 3 R D S T R E E T , N E W Y O R K , N Y 1 0 0 1 0 2 1 2 . 4 7 5 . 9 0 0 0 I N F O @ M N S . C O M M N S . C O M

TM

M A N H AT TA N N E W D E V E L O P M E N T R E P O R T

2 0 1 2 S E C O N D Q U A R T E R

m a n h a t t a n n e w d e v e l o p m e n t R e p o R t 2 q 1 2


TA B L E O F C O N T E N T S

Introduction 3

Market Snapshot 4

Neighborhood Pr ice Trends

Har lem 9

Upper West S ide 10

Upper East S ide 11

Midtown West 12

Midtown East 13

Mur ray Hi l l 14

Chelsea 15

Gramercy Park 16

Greenwich Vi l lage 17

East Vi l lage 18

SoHo 19

Lower East S ide 20

Tr iBeCa 21

Financial Dist r ict 22

Battery Park City 23

The Report Explained 24



I N T R O D U C T I O N

MNS is proud to present the Second Quarter 2012 edition of our New Development Market Report. New Development

Sales data, defined as such “Arms-Length” first offering transactions where the seller is considered a “Sponsor”, was

compiled from the Automated City Register Information System (ACRIS) for sponsor sales that traded during the

Second Quarter of 2012 (04/01/12 – 06/30/11). All data summarized is on a median basis.



M A R K E T S N A P S H O T

Year-Over-Year Median PPSF – no change Quarter-Over-Quarter Median PPSF – down 5%

Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price – down 26% Quarter-Over-Quarter Median Sales Price – up 11%

Manhattan New Development Sales Inventory – up 76% from last quarter Neighborhood with the Most New Dev Sales: Harlem (16% of Manhattan new development sales)

Total New Development Sales Volume – up 60% to $602M from $375M in 1Q12

Largest Quarterly Up-Swing: Murray Hill PPSF: $1,467/SF from $1,267/SF Sales Price: $1.86M from $1.17M

Largest Quarterly Down-Swing: Upper West Side PPSF: $1,492/SF from $1,681/SF Sales Price: $2.2M from $3.1M

Highest New Development Sale: 100 11th Ave – PH23 - $19,397,662

Highest New Development Sale PPSF: 100 11th Ave – PH23 - $4,149/SF

MARKET SUMMARY:

The Manhattan new development market is still struggling to find its footing midway through 2012. Both sales volume and sales pricing is volatile with inventory shifts throwing the market up one day and down again the next. Each neighborhood has its own story of multi-million dollar penthouse deals, but at the other extreme, inventory releases with discounts tell another side. What does it all mean? MNS digs deeper into each deal to uncover the trends.

The second quarter of 2012 had a great amount of activity in the new development sales scene. Units in contract at the start of the second quarter closed at a pace of about 6 units per day, double the amount of closings from the first quarter. Sales volume was up 60% from the first quarter but off 37% from a year ago.

Year-over-year Manhattan new development condominium median sales prices are down 26% ($1.1M this quarter versus just under $1.5M in 2Q11). Median price per square foot of these sales remained the same. Compared to last quarter 1Q12, Manhattan new development price per square foot median numbers are down 5% to $1,165/SF from $1,220/SF but median sales prices are up 11% to $1.1M from $990K last quarter. The drop in median sales price per square foot is a surprise considering the past three quarters were all over $1200/SF. However, this quarter’s median of $1,165/SF hovers just below the average of the past 10 quarters of $1,172/SF.




MARKET UP-SWINGS:

$3+ million dollar sales were sprinkled throughout the city this quarter, from the $3.8M sale at 123 Third Ave in the East Village to the $13.2M sale at 170 East End Ave. A ninth floor 5 bedroom condo at 240 Park Ave South closed at $8.3M, just 5% below ask and the winner of the million dollar listing was the 4,675 SF penthouse at 100 11th Ave for just under $19.4M.

What better metric of price recovery than original sponsor sales from 2008 closing in today’s market at the same prices? Four years and several exclusives later, many developments have held on and are finally releasing units at original prices from the height of the condo market. Midtown East had some straggling sponsor sales at 211 East 51st and The Alexander, but the slow absorption has kept prices elevated at a median price of $1.3M, the highest the neighborhood has seen since 1Q10. 29th Park Madison had 6 recent closings close to a median of $1500/SF, and a recent penthouse listing closed at over $2,000/SF and just 4% off its original listing price back in 2008.

MARKET DOWN-SWINGS:

Manhattan median price per square foot has been on a decline for three quarters in a row, and many of the heavy hitting neighborhoods such as the Upper West Side saw both quarter and annual declines in median sales prices. Lack of inventory is certainly the culprit; for example, The Laureate closed just two units this quarter and is over 90% sold.

Rapid absorption is the indicator for discounted pricing in the Financial District this quarter. Although the number of sales almost tripled from last quarter, the results had no effect on median pricing but lowered its median price per square foot by 25%. The Setai is selling at a median price of $920/SF and 99 John at $927/SF with prices ranging from $500K - $2.5M.

INVENTORY ANALYSIS:

Manhattan median sales prices are up 11% to $1.1M from $990K last quarter and the change in median sales price occurred in the shift of unit types sold. This quarter, two-bedrooms had the largest number of closings (33%) at a median sales price of $1,175,000 while last quarter we saw that same 31% made up of one-bedrooms dominating the sales records and at a median sales price of $834,500.

30% of the sales inventory this quarter came from new developments located in either Harlem or FiDi, yielding a median price per square foot decline of 5% from last quarter. A similar inventory structure occurred back in 2Q11 which is why there is no change in median price per square foot year-over year. Little inventory in SoHo, the Upper West Side, or even Gramercy Park certainly explains the year-over-year 26% drop in new development median sale prices. In tracking the neighborhoods that sold the most amount of 2Q12 new development inventory per unit size:

Studios - Financial District (28%)

One Bedrooms - Financial District (16%)

Two Bedrooms - Harlem (25%)

Three Bedrooms (1500 +) - Upper East Side (27%)




2Q12 MEDIAN SALES PRICE BY NEIGHBORHOOD

2Q12 MEDIAN PPSF BY NEIGHBORHOOD

$250

$450

$650

$850

$1,050

$1,250

$1,450

$1,650

$1,850

$2,050

Harlem

Upper West

Side

Upper East

Side

Mid

town W

est

Mid

town Ea

st

Murra

y Hill

Chelsea

Gra

merc

y Park

Gre

enwich Villa

ge

East

Village

SoHo

Lower E

ast Sid

e

TriBe

Ca FiD

i BP

C

2Q12 Median PPSF by Neighborhood

$200,000

$1,700,000

$3,200,000

$4,700,000

Harlem

Upper West

Side

Upper East

Side

Mid

town W

est

Mid

town Ea

st

Murra

y Hill

Chelsea

Gra

merc

y Park

Gre

enwich Villa

ge

East

Village

SoHo

Lower E

ast Sid

e

TriBe

Ca FiD

i BP

C

2Q12 Median Sales Price by Neighborhood




% OF TOTAL NEW DEVELOPMENT SALES BOROUGH-WIDE

2Q2012 AVERAGE MONTHLY ABSORPTION RATE

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Harlem

Upper West

Side

Upper East

Side

Mid

town W

est

Mid

town Ea

st

Murra

y Hill

Chelsea

Gra

merc

y Park

Gre

enwich Villa

ge

East

Village

SoHo

Lower E

ast Sid

e

TriBe

Ca FiD

i BP

C

% of total sponsor sales - borough-wide

0 2 4 6 8

10 12 14 16 18 20

Harlem

Upper West

Side

Upper East

Side

Mid

town W

est

Mid

town Ea

st

Murra

y Hill

Chelsea

Gra

merc

y Park

Gre

enwich Villa

ge

East

Village

SoHo

Lower E

ast Sid

e

TriBe

Ca FiD

i BP

C

Avg Monthly Absorption Rate



$400,000

$900,000

$1,400,000

$1,900,000

$2,400,000

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

$1,300

$1,400

1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

All Manhattan

Median PPSF

Median Price


3Q11 UNIT MIX OF NEW DEVELOPMENT SALES

MANHATTAN QUARTERLY TRACKING

P R I C EP P S F

2Q12 UNIT MIX OF NEW DEVELOPMENT SALES

MANHATTAN QUARTERLY TRACKING

17%

20%

32%

31%

4Q11 Unit Mix of New Development Sales

Studios

1 Beds

2 Beds

3 Beds

19%

20%

34%

27%

2Q12 Unit Mix of New Development Sales

studios

one bedrooms

two bedrooms

three bedrooms

NEIGHBORHOOD PRICE TRENDS

9


13%

13%

37%

37%

% of Sales within BPC

Studios

1 Beds

2 Beds

1500+ SF

M N S 1 1 5 E A S T 2 3 R D S T R E E T , N E W Y O R K , N Y 1 0 0 1 0 2 1 2 . 4 7 5 . 9 0 0 0 I N F O @ M N S . C O M M N S . C O M

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

$550,000

$600,000

$650,000

$700,000

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

Harlem

Median PPSF

Median Price

HARLEM QUARTERLY TRACKING

H A R L E M

% OF SALES WITHIN HARLEM

HARLEM PPSF BY UNIT SIZE ($628/SF Median)

P P S F P R I C E

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

Studios 1 Beds 2 Beds 1500+ SF

Harlem PPSF By Unit Size ($628/SF Median)

27%

16% 52%

5%

% of Sales within Harlem

Studios

1 Beds

2 Beds

1500+ SF


10


13%

13%

37%

37%


Studios

1 Beds

2 Beds

1500+ SF


$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

$3,000,000

$3,500,000

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

Upper West Side

Median PPSF

Median Price

UPPER WEST SIDE QUARTERLY TRACKING

U P P E R W E S T S I D E

% OF SALES WITHIN UPPER WEST SIDE

UPPER WEST SIDE PPSF BY UNIT SIZE ($1,492/SF Median)

P P S F P R I C E

$800 $900

$1,000 $1,100 $1,200 $1,300 $1,400 $1,500 $1,600


UWS PPSF by Unit Size ($1,492/SF Median)

0%

13%

33% 54%

% of Sales within UWS

Studios

1 Beds

2 Beds

1500+ SF


11


13%

13%

37%

37%


Studios

1 Beds

2 Beds

1500+ SF


$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

$3,000,000

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

$1,300

$1,400

$1,500

1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

Upper East Side

Median PPSF

Median Price

UPPER EAST SIDE QUARTERLY TRACKING

% OF SALES WITHIN UPPER EAST SIDE

U P P E R E A S T S I D E

UPPER EAST SIDE PPSF BY UNIT SIZE ($1,197/SF Median)

P P S F P R I C E

$500

$700

$900

$1,100

$1,300

$1,500

$1,700


UES PPSF by Unit Size ($1,197/SF Median)

16%

12%

24%

48%

% of Sales within UES

Studios

1 Beds

2 Beds

1500+ SF


12


13%

13%

37%

37%


Studios

1 Beds

2 Beds

1500+ SF


$800,000

$1,050,000

$1,300,000

$1,550,000

$1,800,000

$2,050,000

$2,300,000

$700

$900

$1,100

$1,300

$1,500

$1,700

1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

Midtown West

Median PPSF

Median Price

% OF SALES WITHIN MIDTOWN WEST

M I D T O W N W E S T

P P S F P R I C E

MIDTOWN WEST PPSF BY UNIT SIZE ($1,323/SF Median)

MIDTOWN WEST QUARTERLY TRACKING

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

$2,200


Midtown West PPSF by Unit Size ($1,323/SF Median)

15%

28% 52%

5%

% of Sales within Midtown West

Studios

1 Beds

2 Beds

1500+ SF


13


13%

13%

37%

37%


Studios

1 Beds

2 Beds

1500+ SF


$500,000

$750,000

$1,000,000

$1,250,000

$1,500,000

$1,750,000

$2,000,000

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

$1,300

$1,400

1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

Midtown East

Median PPSF

Median Price

MIDTOWN EAST QUARTERLY TRACKING

M I D T O W N E A S T

% OF SALES WITHIN MIDTOWN EAST

MIDTOWN EAST PPSF BY UNIT SIZE ($1,171/SF Median)

P P S F P R I C E

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600


Midtown East PPSF by Unit Size ($1,171/SF Median)

13%

25% 62%

0%

% of Sales within Midtown East

Studios

1 Beds

2 Beds

1500+ SF


14


13%

13%

37%

37%


Studios

1 Beds

2 Beds

1500+ SF


$400,000

$900,000

$1,400,000

$1,900,000

$700

$900

$1,100

$1,300

$1,500

$1,700

1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

Murray Hill

Median PPSF

Median Price

MURRAY HILL QUARTERLY TRACKING

% OF SALES WITHIN MURRAY HILL

MURRAY HILL PPSF BY UNIT SIZE ($1,467/SF Median)

M U R R AY H I L L

P P S F P R I C E

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000


Murray Hill PPSF by Unit Size ($1,467/SF Median)

17%

17%

49%

17%

% of Sales within Murray Hill

Studios

1 Beds

2 Beds

1500+ SF


15


13%

13%

37%

37%


Studios

1 Beds

2 Beds

1500+ SF


$700,000

$1,200,000

$1,700,000

$2,200,000

$2,700,000

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

$1,300

$1,400

$1,500

1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

Chelsea

Median PPSF

Median Price

CHELSEA QUARTERLY TRACKING

% OF SALES WITHIN CHELSEA

CHELSEA PPSF BY UNIT SIZE ($1,236/SF Median)

C H E L S E A

P P S F P R I C E

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800


Chelsea PPSF by Unit Size ($1,236/SF Median)

12%

19%

38%

31%

% of Sales within Chelsea

Studios

1 Beds

2 Beds

1500+ SF


16


13%

13%

37%

37%


Studios

1 Beds

2 Beds

1500+ SF


$500,000

$750,000

$1,000,000

$1,250,000

$1,500,000

$1,750,000

$2,000,000

$2,250,000

$1,100

$1,200

$1,300

$1,400

$1,500

$1,600

$1,700

1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

Gramercy Park

Median PPSF

Median Price

GRAMERCY PARK QUARTERLY TRACKING

% OF SALES WITHIN GRAMERCY PARK

GRAMERCY PARK PPSF BY UNIT SIZE ($1,238/SF Median)

G R A M E R C Y PA R K

P P S F P R I C E

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600


Gramercy PPSF by Unit Size ($1,238/SF Median)

25%

31% 19%

25%

% of Sales within Gramercy

Studios

1 Beds

2 Beds

1500+ SF


17


13%

13%

37%

37%


Studios

1 Beds

2 Beds

1500+ SF


$1,250,000

$2,250,000

$3,250,000

$4,250,000

$5,250,000

$6,250,000

$7,250,000

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

Greenwich Village

Median PPSF

Median Price

GREENWICH VILLAGE QUARTERLY TRACKING

% OF SALES WITHIN GREENWICH VILLAGE

GREENWICH VILLAGE PPSF BY UNIT SIZE ($1,781/SF Median)

G R E E N W I C H V I L L A G E

P P S F

0%

33%

0% 67%

% of Sales within Greenwich Village

Studios

1 Beds

2 Beds

1500+ SF

P R I C E

$200

$700

$1,200

$1,700

$2,200


Greenwich Village PPSF by Unit Size ($1,822/SF Median)


18


13%

13%

37%

37%


Studios

1 Beds

2 Beds

1500+ SF


$400,000

$1,400,000

$2,400,000

$3,400,000

$600

$1,100

$1,600

1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

East Village

Median PPSF

Median Price

EAST VILLAGE QUARTERLY TRACKING

% OF SALES WITHIN EAST VILLAGE

EAST VILLAGE PPSF BY UNIT SIZE ($1,886/SF Median)

E A S T V I L L A G E

P P S F P R I C E

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000


East Village PPSF by Unit Size ($1886/SF Median)

0% 0% 0%

100%

% of Sales within East Village

Studios

1 Beds

2 Beds

1500+ SF


19


13%

13%

37%

37%


Studios

1 Beds

2 Beds

1500+ SF


$1,000,000

$3,000,000

$5,000,000

$7,000,000

$9,000,000

$11,000,000

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

SoHo

Median PPSF

Median Price

0% 0% 0%

100%

% of Sales within SoHo

Studios

1 Beds

2 Beds

1500+ SF

SOHO QUARTERLY TRACKING

% OF SALES WITHIN SOHO

SOHO PPSF BY UNIT SIZE ($1,605/SF Median)

S O H O

P P S F P R I C E

$100 $300 $500 $700 $900

$1,100 $1,300 $1,500 $1,700


SoHo PPSF by Unit Size ($1,605/SF Median)


20


13%

13%

37%

37%


Studios

1 Beds

2 Beds

1500+ SF


$500,000

$750,000

$1,000,000

$1,250,000

$1,500,000

$1,750,000

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

Lower East Side

Median PPSF

Median Price

LOWER EAST SIDE QUARTERLY TRACKING

% OF SALES WITHIN LOWER EAST SIDE

LOWER EAST SIDE PPSF BY UNIT SIZE ($1,300/SF Median)

L O W E R E A S T S I D E

P P S F P R I C E

$500

$700

$900

$1,100

$1,300

$1,500


LES PPSF by Unit Size ($1,300/SF Median)

34%

33%

33%

0%

% of Sales within LES

Studios

1 Beds

2 Beds

1500+ SF


21


13%

13%

37%

37%


Studios

1 Beds

2 Beds

1500+ SF


$500,000

$1,500,000

$2,500,000

$3,500,000

$4,500,000

$5,500,000

$6,500,000

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

TriBeCa

Median PPSF

Median Price

TRIBECA QUARTERLY TRACKING

% OF SALES WITHIN TRIBECA

TRIBECA PPSF BY UNIT SIZE ($1,384/SF Median)

T R I B E C A

P P S F P R I C E

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600


TriBeCa PPSF by Unit Size ($1,300/SF Median)

0% 10% 5%

85%

% of Sales within TriBeCa

Studios

1 Beds

2 Beds

1500+ SF


22


13%

13%

37%

37%


Studios

1 Beds

2 Beds

1500+ SF


$500,000

$700,000

$900,000

$1,100,000

$1,300,000

$1,500,000

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

FiDi

Median PPSF

Median Price

FINANCIAL DISTRICT QUARTERLY TRACKING

% OF SALES WITHIN FINANCIAL DISTRICT

FINANCIAL DISTRICT PPSF BY UNIT SIZE ($954/SF Median)

F I N A N C I A L D I S T R I C T

P P S F P R I C E

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800


FiDi PPSF by Unit Size ($954/SF Median)

41%

25%

27%

7%

% of Sales within FiDi

Studios

1 Beds

2 Beds

1500+ SF


23


13%

13%

37%

37%


Studios

1 Beds

2 Beds

1500+ SF


$400,000

$900,000

$1,400,000

$1,900,000

$2,400,000

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

$1,300

1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12

Battery Park City

Median PPSF

Median Price

BATTERY PARK CITY QUARTERLY TRACKING

% OF SALES WITHIN BATTERY PARK CITY

BATTERY PARK CITY PPSF BY UNIT SIZE ($910/SF Median)

B AT T E R Y PA R K C I T Y

P P S F P R I C E

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200


BPC PPSF by Unit Size ($910/SF Median)

18%

28% 27%

27%


Studios

1 Beds

2 Beds

1500+ SF



T H E R E P O R T E X P L A I N E D

Included in this research are walk-up and elevator new development condominium buildings, as well as

new conversion condominiums if the sales were applicable sponsor transactions. Excluded from the report

are all cooperative sales. Unit types such as studios, one-bedrooms, and two-bedroom units are grouped by

square footage ranges. Studios are under 700 square feet, one-bedrooms are under 900 square feet, and two-

bedrooms are under 1,450 square feet. Added to the report is the over-sized unit type that ranges from 1,500

square feet to 7,000 square feet.

Presented with a quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year comparison, both city-wide and by neighborhood,

MNS New Development ReportTM tracks the market trends throughout Manhattan and Brooklyn. MNS offers a

unique insight into the new development market by tracking stalled construction sites on a quarterly basis, a

great indicator of where development in general is moving. MNS is your source to find neighborhood price

per square foot analysis, average sale prices, unit type sales trends, overall price movement, neighborhood

inventory comparisons, and absorption rates.

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Note: All market data is collected and compiled by MNS marketing department. The information presented here is intended for instructive purposes

only and has been gathered from sources deemed reliable, though it may be subject to errors, omissions, changes or withdrawal without notice. If you would like to republish this report on the web, please be sure to source it as the “Manhattan New Development Report” with a link back to its

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Documents

MANHATTAN NEW DEVELOPMENT REPORT - MNS · original prices from the height of the condo market. ... SoHo TriBeCa FiDi BPC ... 10 MANHATTAN NEW DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2Q12 13 13 37 37