MANHATTAN INSTITUTE POLL SUMMARY OF FINDINGS DOUGLAS E. SCHOEN, LLC SEPTEMBER 20, 2011 1 Conducted by Douglas E. Schoen, LLC for the Manhattan Institute

MANHATTAN INSTITUTE POLL

SUMMARY OF FINDINGSDOUGLAS E. SCHOEN, LLC

SEPTEMBER 20, 2011

1Conducted by Douglas E. Schoen, LLC for the Manhattan Institute

OVERVIEW

Representative sample of 1,000 registered voters across the country from August 5 – 10, 2011.

- To test voter knowledge and opinions of state budgetary issues in general and collective bargaining and labor unions in particular.

- To determine favorability towards the various ways states can and did address their budget crises.

Margin of sampling error is +/- 3%.


OVERVIEW

Also conducted ten surveys with 400 randomly selected voters from August 29 – September 5, 2011, in FL, IL, IN, MI, MT, NC, NY, OH, PA, WI.

- To test state voters’ knowledge and opinions of public sector salaries and benefits, and reform of such benefits.

- To test voter opinion of state budgetary issues taking place in that individual state.

Margin of sampling error is +/- 4.9%.


MAIN CONCLUSIONS• Voters believe that states are facing fiscal crises.

• Voters support steps to pare back spending and reduce benefits for current and future public employees.

• Voters strongly oppose measures to increase taxes and oppose reducing benefits for retirees.

• Voters overwhelmingly blame elected officials for creating and exacerbating current fiscal problems.


MAIN CONCLUSIONS• Voters feel that there is no absolute right to collective

bargaining; rather, they feel that it is a benefit that can and should be negotiated. They are prepared to accept some restrictions on collective bargaining when states are facing fiscal problems.

• When voters are given the choice between restricting benefits and keeping benefits at current levels, a clear majority support reducing benefits.

• However, there was opposition to the laws that were passed in Ohio and Wisconsin because voters did not see the clear linkage between restricting collective bargaining rights and resolving states' fiscal problems.


DIRECTION OF GOVERNMENT

Conducted by Douglas E. Schoen, LLC for the Manhattan Institute 6

DIRECTION OF THE ECONOMYVoters are very unsatisfied with the direction of the economy.

Just 14% say it is headed in the right direction, while 80% say it is on the wrong track.


DIRECTION OF YOUR STATE’S ECONOMYVoters believe their state’s economy is headed in the wrong direction as well, 66% to 23%.


EFFICIENCY OF STATE GOVERNMENTBut voters have positive views toward their state government.

They say their state government is efficient by 55% to 43%.


PUBLIC SECTOR EMPLOYEES


PUBLIC SECTOR EMPLOYEES – INCOME


A majority (57%) believe that public sector employees make more or at least the same as private sector employees

PUBLIC SECTOR EMPLOYEES - SALARIES AND BENEFITS

12

Which is closer to your view?

Public employees’ salaries should be frozen and they should be required to contribute more towards their benefits

48%

Public employees’ salaries should not be frozen and they should not be required to contribute more towards their benefits

40%

A plurality (48%) say that public employees’ salaries should be frozen and they should be required to contribute more towards their benefits.

Conducted by Douglas E. Schoen, LLC for the Manhattan Institute

NEW PUBLIC SECTOR EMPLOYEES – HEALTH BENEFITS

A majority says that new public employees should have to contribute toward paying for their health care benefits because of state and local government budget problems, 57% to 38%.

13

57%

38%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

New public sectoremployees'

health benefits

Contributemore towardpaying forbenefitsbecause ofbudgetproblemsDo notrequire themto pay more


PUBLIC SECTOR EMPLOYEES –PENSIONS

60%

32%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

Public sector employees

Contribute moretoward pensionbenefits becauseof budgetproblems

Should not haveto contribute more

14Conducted by Douglas E. Schoen, LLC for the Manhattan Institute 14

A solid majority of voters (60%) say current public employees should have to contribute more toward their pension benefits because of budget problems.

PUBLIC SECTOR RETIREES –PENSIONS

25%

69%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

Public sector retirees

Contribute moretoward pensionand health carebenefits because ofbudget problems

Should not have tocontribute more


However, majority say that retirees should not have to contribute more towards their pension and health care benefits because of budget problems.

STATE & LOCAL GOV FUNDS – RAISE TAXES? Voters would not be willing to have taxes raised so that the salaries and benefits of current public employees could be paid at current levels if states did not have the money to pay them, 64% to 31%.

16

31%

64%

20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%70%

If states didn't have enoughmoney to pay the salaries and

benefits of current publicemployees, would you be

willing to have taxes raised sothat they could be paid at

current levels?

Yes

No


STATE & LOCAL GOV FUNDS – RAISE TAXES BY PARTY

17

Voters across the aisle agree.

Republicans say they are not willing to have taxes raised to pay current public employees’ benefits at current levels, 84% to 14%, and Independents agree, 50% to 37%.

A plurality of Democrats say they would not be willing to have taxes raised, 47% to 43%.


STATE & LOCAL GOV FUNDS – RAISE TAXES BY PARTY

18

Democrats Republicans Independents0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

43%

14%

37%

47%

84%

50%

If states did not have enough money to pay current public employees’ salaries and benefits…

Willing to have taxes raised so that benefits could be paid at current levels

Not willing to have taxes raised


STATE & LOCAL GOV FUNDS – WISCONSIN AND OHIO

19

Strong majorities of voters in Wisconsin and Ohio also oppose tax increases as a means of keeping public employees at current salary and benefit levels.

Wisconsin voters reject paying more taxes to pay current public employees’ benefits at current levels, 61% to 35%, and Ohio voters reject this, 65% to 29%.


STATE & LOCAL GOV FUNDS – CUT SOCIAL SERVICE PROGRAMS?

Voters would also not be willing to have state social service programs cut so that the salaries and benefits of current public employees could be paid at current levels if states did not have the money to pay them, 51% to 36%.

20

36%

51%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

If states didn't have enoughmoney to pay the salaries and

benefits of current publicemployees, would you be willing

to have state programs cut sothat they could be paid at

current levels?

Yes

No


STATE & LOCAL GOV FUNDS – WISCONSIN AND OHIO

21

Strong majorities of voters in Wisconsin and Ohio oppose service cuts as a means of keeping public employees at current salary and benefit levels.

Wisconsin voters reject accepting service cuts to pay current public employees’ benefits at current levels, 66% to 25%, and Ohio voters reject this, 62% to 29%.


STATE & LOCAL GOV FUNDS –WISCONSIN AND OHIO

22

Wisconsin Ohio0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70% 66%62%

25%29%

If states did not have enough money to pay current public employees’ salaries and benefits…

Willing to have state programs cut so that benefits could be paid at current levels

Not willing to have taxes raised


STATE BUDGET CRISES


STATE BUDGET CRISESA large majority of voters (78%) say their state faced a budget crisis this year.

15% say their state did not face one.

24

78%

15%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Your stategovernment

Faced abudgetcrisis thisyearDid notface one


STATE BUDGET CRISES

25

How was your state’s budget crisis resolved?(up to two choices accepted, responses combined)

Spending cuts 68%

Taxes increased 28%

It was not resolved 9%

Not sure 16%

A majority of voters (68%) say their state’s budget crisis was resolved by spending cuts.


STATE BUDGET CRISES – WHO IS TO BLAME?

26

As you may know, many U.S. state governments are facing large budget deficits this year, meaning that their spending has exceeded the amount of revenue that they have brought in from fees and taxes. This has caused many public employee pension plans and healthcare plans to be greatly underfunded. What would you say is the main reason for these problems?

Elected state officials made careless and self-serving decisions 48%

State governments spent too much money 28%

Public employees’ benefits are too high and unsustainable 13%

State governments did not tax enough 6%

A plurality (48%) blame their elected officials for their state’s budget deficit.


STATE BUDGET CRISES – BEST SOLUTION

27

In your opinion, what is the best way to address the problem of states not being able to afford public employee benefits?

Cut government spending 47%

Require current public employees to contribute more towards their benefits

31%

Raise taxes 13%

Require retired public employees to contribute more towards their benefits

1%

A plurality (47%) say that cutting government spending is the best way to address the problem of states not being able to afford public employee benefits.


STATE BUDGET CRISES – BEST SOLUTION BY IDEOLOGY

28

In your opinion, what is the best way to address the problem of states not being able to afford public employee benefits?

Liberals Moderates Conservatives

Cut government spending 42% 44% 49%


13% 28% 43%

Raise taxes 33% 16% 3%


2% 1% 1%

There is bipartisan support for cutting spending.

A plurality of liberals, moderates and conservatives all say that cutting government spending is the best way to address this problem.


28

STATE BUDGET CRISES – LEAST DESIRABLE SOLUTION

29

What would you say is the least desirable way to address the problem of states not being able to afford public employee benefits?

Raise taxes 36%


21%

Cut government spending 21%


14%

A plurality (36%) say that raising taxes is the least desirable way to address the problem of states not being able to afford public employee benefits.


STATE BUDGET CRISES – LEAST DESIRABLE SOLUTION BY IDEOLOGY

30

A plurality of moderates and conservatives say that raising taxes is the least desirable way to address this problem, while liberals say cutting government spending and requiring retirees to contribute more are least desirable.

In your opinion, what is the least desirable way to address the problem of states not being able to afford public employee benefits?

Liberals Moderates Conservatives

Raise taxes 19% 38% 46%

Cut government spending 33% 16% 17%


9% 20% 14%


32% 16% 18%


REDUCING STATE SERVICESVoters favor reducing or eliminating certain state services to reduce budget deficits, 56% to 35%.

31

56%

35%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Do you favor or opposereducing or eliminatingcertain state services toreduce budget deficits?

Favor

Oppose


REDUCING STATE SERVICES – BY PARTY

32

Democrats Republicans Independents0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

47%

66%59%

46%

31%24%

Eliminating certain state services to reduce budget deficits

Favor

Oppose

Majorities of Republicans and Independents favor eliminating state services to reduce budget deficits. A plurality of Democrats agree.


COLLECTIVE BARGAINING



Next we introduced collective bargaining to voters with the following explanation:

Collective bargaining is a process of negotiations between employers and labor union representatives aimed at reaching agreements that regulate working conditions and determine salary and benefits.



35

Collective bargaining is a process of negotiations between employers and labor union representatives aimed at reaching agreements that regulate working conditions and determine salary and benefits. Which position is closer to your view?

All

Public employees should not bargain collectively and use the power of the group to potentially limit, delay or restrict the delivery of important government services

50%

By negotiating as part of a union rather than individually, public employees can have more leverage in securing the higher pay and more generous benefits that they deserve.

42%

Half oppose collective bargaining, and say that public employees should not bargain collectively and use the power of the group to potentially limit or restrict the delivery of government services.


STATE GOVERNMENT DISPUTES OVER COLLECTIVE BARGAINING

Voters side more with state officials than public employee unions in the state government disputes over collective bargaining, 46% to 39%.

In the disputes b...30%32%34%36%38%40%42%44%46%48%50%

46%

39%Side with state of-ficials

Side with public employee unions


RESTRICT COLLECTIVE BARGAINING RULES

All0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%53%

41%

Some states are trying to restrict collective bargaining rules of public

employee unions.

Favor restrict-ing some of these rules

Oppose

Voters favor restricting some of the collective bargaining rules of public employee unions, 53% to 41%.


RESTRICT COLLECTIVE BARGAINING – WISCONSIN AND OHIO

Wisconsin Ohio0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

53%

60%

45%

36%

Some states are trying to restrict collective bargaining rules of public

employee unions.

Favor restrict-ing some of these rules

Oppose

Wisconsin and Ohio voters think that collective bargaining should be restricted, 53% to 45% and 60% to 36% respectively.


COLLECTIVE BARGAINING – BASIC RIGHT?

By 60% to 33%, voters say that collective bargaining is not a basic right; rather, it is one that can be negotiated.


WILL LIMITING COLLECTIVE BARGAINING ACTUALLY HELP STATE BUDGET PROBLEMS?

40

Which position is closer to your view?

It is unclear how much money will actually be saved by limiting these rights.

56%

Limiting collective bargaining will result in more reasonable benefits for public employees and thus help states close their budget gaps.

33%

While voters support measures to restrict collective bargaining, say that it is not an absolute right, and side with state officials in state government disputes over restricting collective bargaining, they are not convinced that limiting these rights will actually save states money, 56% to 33%.


COLLECTIVE BARGAINING –TEACHER TENURE

41

56% favor phasing out tenure for teachers because it protects bad teachers from being fired while making it harder to bring in new and better teachers. 39% say teacher tenure is a longstanding right for public school teachers.

Teacher tenure0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60% 56%

39%

Phase out Teacher tenure is a longstanding right for public school teachers and it would be unfair for it to be taken away from them


PENSIONS


PENSION PROGRAMS

Voters are clearly in favor of changing the nature of public employee retirement plans, opting for plans that resemble those found in the private sector, to help maintain current benefit levels and improve their state’s finances.


DEFINED BENEFIT VS. DEFINED CONTRIBUTION PROGRAMS

44

Voters strongly favor moving all new public employees from the existing defined benefit plan to a proposed defined contribution plan.

Moving all new public employees from a defined benef...0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%69%

17%

Favor

Oppose


DEFINED BENEFIT VS. DEFINED CONTRIBUTION PROGRAMS – BY IDEOLOGY

45

Liberals Conservatives Moderates0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

60%68%

76%

31%

16%11%

Moving all new public employees from a defined benefit plan to a defined contribution plan

Favor

Oppose

There is support across the political spectrum for moving all new public employees from a defined benefit plan to a defined contribution plan, as majorities of Liberals, Moderates and Conservatives favor this.


DEFINED BENEFIT VS. DEFINED CONTRIBUTION PROGRAMS – WISCONSIN AND OHIO

46

Wisconsin Ohio0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70% 63% 63%

18%25%

Moving all new public employees from a defined benefit plan to a defined contribution plan

Favor

Oppose

Majorities of voters in Wisconsin and Ohio favor moving all new public employees from existing, defined benefit plans to proposed, defined contribution plans.


PUBLIC EMPLOYEE LABOR UNIONS


SALARIES AND BENEFITS OF PUBLIC EMPLOYEES

Generally speaking, by 41% to 13%, voters say the salaries and benefits of most public employees are too high for the work they do.

32% say they are about right. Salaries and benefi...

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

41%

13%

32% Too high

Too low

About right


RETIREMENT OF POLICE AND FIREFIGHTERS

Voters say that police and firefighters should have to be older than their 40’s and 50’s to retire and collect pension checks regardless of the number of years they have served, 57% to 38%.

Retirement for police and...30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

38%

57%

After 25 years, even if they're in their 40's and 50's

Should have to be older than that


RETIREMENT OF TEACHERSVoters are split on if teachers should be able to receive pension checks after a set period of time if they are younger than 65, with 47% agreeing and 48% saying they should not be able to. Retirement of t...

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

47% 48%

Be able to retire after a set period of service even if they are under age 65

Should not be able to do this


INDIVIDUAL STATES – CASE STUDIES


INDIVIDUAL STATE CASE STUDIES

Next we asked voters if they favor or oppose how various states addressed their budget crises.

This section reports findings on voters’ attitudes both nationally and in individual states to state-specific issues.


CASE STUDY – WISCONSIN

In that fight, did y...0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%52%

40%

Asked of those who have heard about what happened…

Republican Governor

Democrats in the Legis-lature

In our national survey, those who say they have heard about what happened in Wisconsin sided with the Governor rather than the Democrats in the legislature, 52% to 40%.



54

However, voters nationally oppose the Wisconsin law that was passed, 49% to 45%.

The Wisconsin law that passed eliminates most collective bargaining ri...43%

44%

45%

46%

47%

48%

49%

50%

45%

49%

Favor this law OpposeConducted by Douglas E. Schoen, LLC for the Manhattan Institute

55

Our Wisconsin survey shows that Wisconsin voters also oppose the law, 52%-45%.

Collective bargaining law0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

45%

52%

FavorOppose



CASE STUDY –WISCONSIN

Opposition to this law is due in large part because voters are unsure as to how collective bargaining impacts their state’s fiscal health and the salary and benefit levels of public employees.

They seem to think that the current system of collective bargaining is too open-ended, but they are more inclined to see public employee salaries and benefits reduced in order to improve their state’s fiscal health.


57

CASE STUDY – WISCONSINWisconsin voters are split (47%-47%) on whether limiting collective bargaining will have a clear benefit on closing state budget gaps.

How would limiting collective bargaining impact state budgets?

It would result in more reasonable benefits for public employees, allowing states to close their budget gaps

47%

It is unclear how much money would actually be saved by restricting collective bargaining rights.

47%


58


And only 28% of Wisconsin voters think reforming collective bargaining is more important than reforming public employee salaries and benefits to improve the state’s finances.

Which is more important to improving the state's finances - reforming the collective bargaining process, or reforming the way public employees are compensated and the benefits they receive?

Reforming collective bargaining is more important 28%

Reforming public employees’ benefits is more important 43%



This demonstrates the disconnect between what voters want (savings and more efficient government) and what they think is the best way to achieve these goals (pension and benefit reform at the expense of collective bargaining reform).

We see that voters are clearly in favor of repealing the type of work rules that are born out of the collective bargaining process.


CASE STUDY – OHIO

In that fight, did ...0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%54%

33%

Asked of those who have heard about what happened…

Republican Governor

Democrats in the Legis-lature

In our national survey, those who say they have heard about what happened in Ohio sided with the Governor rather than the Democrats in the legislature, 54% to 33%.


CASE STUDY – OHIO

61

However, voters nationally also oppose the Ohio law that was passed, 45% to 40%.

The Ohio law eliminates most collective bargaining rights for public em...37%38%39%40%41%42%43%44%45%46%

40%

45%

Favor this law OpposeConducted by Douglas E. Schoen, LLC for the Manhattan Institute

62

CASE STUDY – OHIO In our Ohio state survey, we found that Ohio voters oppose the law as well, 52% to 43%.

Ohio's recent collective bargaining law0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

43%

52%

SupportOppose


CASE STUDY – OHIO

Like Wisconsin, opposition to the Ohio law can be attributed to voters’ uncertainty as to how collective bargaining impacts their state’s fiscal health and the salary and benefit levels of public employees.

Ohio voters are more inclined to see public employee salaries and benefits reduced in order to improve their state’s fiscal health.


64

CASE STUDY – OHIO A plurality of Ohio voters (48%) feel that it is unclear how much money could actually be saved by limiting collective bargaining.

How would limiting collective bargaining impact state budgets?

It is unclear how much money would actually be saved by restricting collective bargaining rights.

48%

Limiting collective bargaining will result in more reasonable benefits for public employees and thus help states close their budget gaps.

38%


65

CASE STUDY – OHIO

And only 17% think reforming collective bargaining is more important than reforming public employee salaries and benefits to improve the state’s finances.

Which is more important to improving the state's finances - reforming the collective bargaining process, or reforming the way public employees are compensated and the benefits they receive?

Reforming public employees’ benefits is more important 59%

Reforming collective bargaining is more important 17%

Not sure 24%


CASE STUDY – OHIO

Like in Wisconsin, this demonstrates the disconnect between what voters want (savings and more efficient government) and what they think is the best way to achieve these goals (pension and benefit reform at the expense of collective bargaining reform).

Voters clearly favor repealing the type of work rules that are born out of the collective bargaining process.


67

CASE STUDY – NEW YORKThree-quarters of New York voters approve of New York’s strategy to address the budget crisis by cutting spending in most areas rather than raising taxes.

Government's strategy of spending cuts to solve budget crisis

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80% 75%

22%

SupportOppose


CASE STUDY – NEW YORK

We told New York voters the following information:

“State and local government workers pay an average of 29% of their health insurance premiums, compared to 31% in the private sector. Governor Cuomo recently negotiated two new contracts with state government employees that will raise their health insurance contributions to a level closer to the national average. However, some large groups of local government employees in New York continue to contribute much less.”

We asked voters if all New York public employees should be required to contribute as much to their health insurance as state government employees do.



69

A majority of New York voters say that New York public employees should be required to contribute as much to their health insurance as state government employees do, 61% to 29%.

Should all public employees in New York should be req...0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%61%

29%

Yes No



70

New York voters also favor requiring local public employees to contribute at least 10% of health insurance premiums for individual coverage, and at least 25% for family coverage, 50% to 36%.

Series10%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%50%

36%

Favor this proposal Oppose

The New York State Commission on Local Government Efficiency and Competitiveness has recommended that all local public employees be required to contribute at least 10% of health insurance premiums for individual coverage, and at least 25% for family coverage. Keeping in mind that some public employees now pay closer to the national average in health insurance contributions, but some pay nothing…


Documents

MANHATTAN INSTITUTE POLL SUMMARY OF FINDINGS DOUGLAS E. SCHOEN, LLC SEPTEMBER 20, 2011 1 Conducted by Douglas E. Schoen, LLC for the Manhattan Institute