MANGROVE DEGRADATION: MANGROVE DEGRADATION: CAUSAL CHAIN ANALYSESCAUSAL CHAIN ANALYSES

Nguyen Hoang Tri, VietnamNguyen Hoang Tri, VietnamUNEP/USM 29/4UNEP/USM 29/4--9/5/2007 9/5/2007

the Training Course on Sustainable Management of Mangrove Ecosystems for the UNEP-GEF-South China Sea Project on Reversing Marine Environmental Degradation Trends in the

South China Sea and the Gulf of Thailand

Systems ThinkingSystems Thinking

Mental Models

Systemic Structures

Patterns

Events

How components interact/relationships

Effects/Symptoms

What does the system look like/components

Ideas of how the system works in peoples’ minds

Causal Chain Analysis and Root Causes: The principle of or relationship between cause and effect.

• The Global International Waters Assessment (GIWA) was created The GIWA Approach (CCA) to help develop a priority setting mechanism for actions in international waters.

• The GIWA's task is to analyze potential policy actions that could solve or mitigate these problems. Given the complex nature of the problems, understanding their root causes is essential to develop effective solutions.

• A causal chain maps the causal relations between cause and effect.

Why were mangroves cut?

Hum

an activities and their impacts

Hum

an activities and their impacts

The Causal-Chain Model

Problem Concerns

Issues

Human activity Agriculture

Forestry

Fishing

Aquaculture

Mining

Industry

Energy production

Transport

Tourism

Urbanisation

Military activity

Human needs & wants

Markets

Economics

Demography

Lifestyle

Poverty

Infrastructure

- Investments

- Financing

Enforcement Agreements

Legislation

- Laws

- Rules

- Regulations

Education

Institution

- Competence

- Capacity

Root causes / Governance

IMPACT IMMEDIATE CAUSE

SECTOR ACTIVITY

ROOT CAUSEGIWA ISSUE

Fisheries resources were highly overexploited

Employment rates had decreased by 30-50% due to over-fishing & environmental degradation with substantial impact on the social life of the local population.

14. Overexploitation

Increased market demand for seafood that leads to increased fishing activities in disregard of the consequences related to depletion of the living resources.

Causal chain analysis for Yellow Sea:Unsustainable Exploitation of Living Resources

Business opportunities in the seafood processing industries had decreased

More efficient fishing practices by introduction of improved fishing technology.

Fisheries: easy access to improved fishing technologies; increasing the number of fishing fleets.

Increase in population growth, increased demand for seafood, enhances the fishing activities.

Profit motive in fishing and disregard of the environmental consequences causeduncontrolled entry in the number of fishing vessels into the fisheries sector. Increased

fishing efforts leading to over-harvesting of the living resources.

Biodiversity impacts Level of diversity Conservation of biodiversity Sustainable use of biodiversity

Ecosystem diversity

Would the intended activity lead, either directly or indirectly, to serious damage or total loss of (an) ecosystem(s), or land-use type(s), thus leading to a loss of ecosystem services of scientific/ecological value, or of cultural value?

Does the intended activity affect the sustainable human exploitation of (an) ecosystem(s) or land-use type(s) in such manner that the exploitation becomes destructive or non-sustainable (i.e. the loss of ecosystem services of social and/or economic value)?

Species diversity

Would the intended activity cause a direct or indirect loss of a population of a species?

Would the intended activity affect sustainable use of a population of a species?

Genetic diversity

Would the intended activity result in extinction of a population of a localized endemic species of scientific, ecological, or cultural value?

Does the intended activity cause a local loss of varieties/cultivars/breeds of cultivated plants and/or domesticated animals and their relatives, genes or genomes of social, scientific and economic importance?

Root causes

Linking cause and effectLinking cause and effect

Causal chain Causal chain analysisanalysis

Case studies• CONSERVATION OF COASTAL

WETLANDS IN THE RED RIVER DELTA: CONCEPTUAL MODEL

• CONSERVATION OF GLOBALLY SIGNIFICANT BIODIVERSITY ON MEINMAHLA ISLAND WILDLIFE SANCTUARY: CONCEPTUAL MODEL

• SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT OF MT. ISAROG'S TERRITORIES (SUMMIT) PROJECT CONCEPTUAL MODEL

• CONSERVATION OF UPLAND BIODIVERSITY IN YUNNAN CONCEPTUAL MODEL

Thank you