Managing the Global Supply Chain

  • Upload
    subhojs

  • View
    220

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

  • 8/7/2019 Managing the Global Supply Chain

    1/15

    Managing the Global Supply Chain

    A Risk Measurement Perspective

    - by Krishnakanth K. K. & Pankaj Ghai

    IIM - Lucknow

  • 8/7/2019 Managing the Global Supply Chain

    2/15

    Executive Summary

    "Manufacturing offshore is bad business."

    - Harvard Business Review, 1988

    The world has come a long way from the times of Markides and Berg who wrote this article. With the cost reduction ideologybeing followed vigorously and infrastructure and telecom boom sweeping the developing countries, outsourcing is here to stay.

    With these global changes, supply chains are quickly proliferating globally and increasing in complexity and distances. In this

    scenario, the risks associated with the supply chains become magnified and become an important issue to tackle. Events like

    SARS and 9/11 have brought the high impact, low frequency risks also into focus.

    The paper starts with a pointer to where we stand today in supply chain risk measurement. The various methods of measuring

    the supply chain performance have been then introduced. This is followed by a detailed classification of risk drivers and

    classical mitigation strategies. The SCOR Model application to risk measurement and control has been discussed in detail, withsome inputs from the software industry also used. After that a new approach has been suggested, based on the existing

    applications of the Balanced Scorecard in supply chains.

    The Emergence of Global Supply Chains 1

    Globalization is a force to contend with in all spheres of business and the supply chain is naturally going to follow. The

    globalization trends are driven by the following four factors:

    Market: Homogenization of customer needs is often-cited as a need for globalization. A typical trait of the globalconsumer is the centralized purchase of materials for a decentralized use.

    Growth in number of MNCs

    Cost: The scale economies are the most apparent drivers of global supply chains. Further due to liberalized

    government policies the consumers are not restricted to the local suppliers and are free to select them from anyglobal player.

    Government: Favorable trade policies like GATT and WTO have promoted international trade.

    International freight and logistics: The growth and development of international freight and logistics has

    helped add capacity and reduce the real cost per unit.

    Global communications and IT: The introduction of global communications and the widespread adoption at

    low cost has helped accelerate commerce in developing economies.

    1Werner Delfmann and Sascha Albers, "Supply Chain Management in Global Context", www.uni-koeln.de/wiso-fak/planung,

    2002.

  • 8/7/2019 Managing the Global Supply Chain

    3/15

    Risk in Global Supply Chain

    Efficient Supply Chains?2

    Under the influence of JIT philosophy, companies have invested a lot of money to create lean supply chains. Thefocus has been to improve efficiencies in operations and distribution to minimize the system-level inventory.However JIT in itself does not include the concept of risk: the unforeseen disruptions.

    Another effort to improve the efficiency has been global outsourcing, to take advantage of the lower production andlabor costs.

    Thus the focus has been on only one factor - efficiency. The other critical factor of responsiveness - the ability toreact faster to changing needs and conditions - has not being considered. However efficiency and responsivenessare two key measures pulling the supply chain in opposite directions and a balance between the two can help

    overcome the risk that supply chain is exposed to.

    Risks Magnification in the Global Context 3

    Owing to the very nature of a global supply chain, the complexities and uncertainties associated with it are veryhigh. The globalization of business activities leads to increased international flow of goods and information. Goodshave to cross longer distances, exposing to further risks in transport. Some parts of the supply chain might be facedwith completely different political and economic environments than others. Thus the predictability of risks is moredifficult. As and when more countries have to be considered the risks would increase much more. Risk managementis hence much more complex in global supply chains than in companies as more possible influences have to beregarded in the decision making process. There are risks that the total acquisition cost including transportation,inventory obsolescence, opportunity cost of lost sales, lower flexibility etc may be greater than anticipated anderode the net benefits that the initial purchase cost imply. Some of the risks faced by the global supply chains will be

    similar to that in the local ones. However their magnitude, severity or frequency may be higher.

    Supply Chain Risk Analysis: Present Scenario 4

    Though extensive research has been done in the field of risk analysis, the concept of risk analysis for securing thesupply chain is relatively new. No specific methodology or software has been developed specifically for vulnerabilityassessment of supply chains. There is a big difference from the traditional risk analysis:

    22 Jayashankar M. Swaminathan, "SARS exposes risks of global supply chains", The Journal of Commerce, 2003.3Werner Delfmann and Sascha Albers, "Supply Chain Management in Global Context", www.uni-koeln.de/wiso-fak/planung, 20024

    Roshan R. Pai, Venkata R. Kallepalli, Reggie J. Caudill and MengChu Zhou, "Methods Toward Supply Chain Risk Analysis", IEEE, 2003.

  • 8/7/2019 Managing the Global Supply Chain

    4/15

    The interrelationships in a supply chain are as crucial as the individual members

    There may not be directly visible relationship between source and effect of the risk(because of the transmission

    along the chain)

    Research indicates that there is a majority tendency to view supply-chain risk management and contingencyplanning as a single-firm activity5. This is reflected in the widespread practice of passing responsibility for themanagement of identified risk back up the chain to suppliers, with disregard to what is happening at that level.There is a large dependence on imposition of contractual obligations on suppliers. These may insulate a company

    from the immediate effects of a supply-chain disruption, but can't improve the resilience of the supply-chain as awhole.

    Managing supply-chain risk is difficult because individual risks are often interconnected6. Actions that mitigate onerisk can end up accentuating others, e.g., a lean supply chain has lower risk of inventory obsolescence but higherdisruption risk.

    Most of the companies also focus on the low-impact high frequency risks but not on the high impact low frequencyrisk. e.g. many global supply chains were badly exposed after the SARS epidemic or the 9/11 terrorist attack. Infactit is these events which have brought the spotlight on the risks in supply chains.

    Supply Chain Performance Metrics 7

    Traditionally, companies have been using financial measures as the prime performance indicators. Financialmeasures such as profits alone may be insufficient in measuring supply chain performance because:

    They tend to be past-oriented and rather than future-oriented

    They do not relate to important strategic, non-financial performance parameters directly, e.g., like customer

    service levels and product quality

    They do not provide a direct and tangible relationship to operational measures

    A variety of measurement approaches have been developed, including the following:

    The Logistics Scoreboard

    It has been developed by Logistics Resources International Inc. and recommends the use of an integrated set ofperformance measures from the following broad categories:

    Logistics financial performance measures (e.g., expenses and return on assets )

    Logistics productivity measures (e.g., orders shipped per hour and transport container utilization)

    Logistics quality measures (e.g., inventory accuracy and shipment damage )

    Logistics cycle time measures (e.g., in transit time and order entry time)

    Logistics Resources has a tool called The Logistics Scoreboard that can be used to pilot supply chain performancemeasurement processes and to customize for ongoing use. It is prescriptive and recommends the use of a specificset of supply chain performance measures. These measures, however, are skewed toward logistics, having limitedfocus on measuring the production and procurement activities within a supply chain.

    5Dr. Helen Peck and Dr Uta Jttner, "Risk Management in the Supply chain", Focus, Dec 2002.

    6Sunil Chopra and Manmohan Sodhi, "Managing Risk To Avoid Supply Chain Breakdown", MIT Sloan Management Review, Fall 2004.

    7

    Larry Lapide, "What About Measuring Supply Chain Performance?" http://lapide.ASCET.com

  • 8/7/2019 Managing the Global Supply Chain

    5/15

    Activity-Based Costing (ABC)

    The ABC approach was developed to overcome some of the shortcomings of traditional accounting methods intying financial measures to operational performance. It involves breaking down activities into individual tasks or costdrivers and allocates various costs to these drivers. This approach allows better assessment of the true productivityand costs of a supply chain process. ABC analysis does not replace traditional financial accounting, but provides abetter understanding of supply chain performance by looking at the same numbers in a different way. ABC methodsare useful in conjunction with the other measurement approaches to measure supply chain process/task productivityand costs by aligning the metrics closer to actual labor, material, and equipment usage.

    Economic Value Added (EVA)

    To better value the success of an enterprise towards generating long-term value to its shareholders than thetraditional financial measures, EVA was introduced by Stern, Stewart & Co. It measures the return on capital vs. thecost of capital of the company. Some companies are starting to use measures like EVA within their executiveevaluations. EVA can be used to measure an enterprise's value-added contributions within a supply chain.However, while useful for assessing higher-level executive contributions and long-term shareholder value, EVAmetrics are less useful for measuring detailed supply chain performance.

    The other two measures discussed in detail later are Balanced Scorecard and SCOR Model.

    Sources of Risk8

    The nature of the risks that are faced by a company and how these will not fall equally across a corporation'sportfolio of sources, products and customers is discussed below.

    8 Alan Braithwaite, "The Supply Chain Risks Of Global Sourcing", http://www.lcp-consulting.com, 2003.

    External Drivers

    Demand risk: Potential or actual disturbances to flow of product, information, and cash, emanating from withinthe network, between the focal company and the market, leading to over or under supply

    Supply risk: Upstream of focal company equivalent of demand risk

    Environmental: Risk associated with external and, from the company's perspective, uncontrollable events. e.g.

    port blockades, closure due to fire, earthquake, etc.

    Internal Drivers

  • 8/7/2019 Managing the Global Supply Chain

    6/15

    Process risk: Disruptions in the sequences of value-adding and managerial activities undertaken by thecompany

    Control risk: Risk arising from the application or misapplication of controls (i.e. assumptions, rules, systems

    and procedures that govern how an organization exerts control over the processes) e.g. order quantities, batchsizes, safety stock etc.

    Mitigation and contingency: Mitigation is a hedge against risk built into the operations themselves and,

    therefore, the lack of mitigating tactics is a risk in itself. Contingency is the existence of a prepared plan and theidentification of resources that can be mobilized in the event of a risk being identified.

    Category ofRisk

    Drivers of Risk

    Disruptions Natural disaster

    Labor dispute

    Supplier bankruptcy

    War and terrorism

    Dependency on a single source of supply as well as the capacity and responsiveness of

    alternative suppliers

    Delays High capacity utilization at supply source

    Inflexibility of supply source

    Poor quality or yield at supply source

    Excessive handling due to border crossings or to change in transportation modes

    Risk Categories and Risk Drivers 8

    Systems Information infrastructure breakdown

    System integration or extensive systems networking

    E-commerce

    Forecast Inaccurate forecasts due to long lead times, seasonality, product variety, short lifecycles, small customer base

    "Bullwhip effect" or information distortion due to sales promotions, incentives, lack of

    supply-chain visibility and exaggeration of demand in times of product shortage

    Intellectual Property Vertical integration of supply chain

    Global outsourcing and markets

    Procurement Exchange rate risk

    8Sunil Chopra and Manmohan Sodhi, "Managing Risk To Avoid Supply Chain Breakdown", MIT Sloan Management Review, Fall 2004.

    Identifying Risks and Building Trust in Global Supply Chains, Bonnie W. Morris

  • 8/7/2019 Managing the Global Supply Chain

    7/15

    Percentage of a key component or raw material procured from a single source

    Industry wide capacity utilization

    Long-term versus short-term contracts

    Receivables Number of customers

    Financial strength of customers

    Inventory Rate of product obsolescence

    Inventory holding cost

    Product value

    Demand and supply uncertainty

    Capacity Cost of capacity

    Capacity flexibility

    InformationTechnology (IT)

    Damage to telecommunications software

    Errors or attacks on the reliability, integrity, or availability of the system that are

    carried out through the supply chain itself

    Politico-Legal Changes in govt., leading to changes in policies

    Changes in laws making them less beneficial

    Criminal Theft or Damage

    Risk Mitigation 9

    Before constructing a supply-chain risk management strategy, a multi organization level shared understanding ofsupply-chain risk needs to be created. A typical two step approach is suggested:

    Stress testing is a group exercise that helps managers and their companies understand and prioritize supplychain risks. "What if" scenarios help key players focus on the supply chain one link at a time. This strategy offers anespecially effective way to gain buy-in and shared ownership in project teams tackling supply-chain risk.

    Tailoring Risk Management Approaches: For this, the different types of risks mentioned above have to be

    identified and the following general risk-mitigation may be adapted according to the situation.

    9

    Sunil Chopra and Manmohan Sodhi, "Managing Risk To Avoid Supply Chain Breakdown", MIT Sloan Management Review, Fall 2004.

  • 8/7/2019 Managing the Global Supply Chain

    8/15

    Mitigation Approaches and Tailored Strategies

    Mitigation Approach Tailored Strategies

    Increase Capacity Focus on low-cost, decentralized capacity for predictable demand.

    Build centralized capacity for unpredictable demand.

    Increase decentralization as cost of capacity drops.

    Acquire RedundantSuppliers

    Favor more redundant supply for high-volume products, less redundancy forlow-volume products.

    Centralize redundancy for low-volume products in a few flexible suppliers.

    Increase Responsiveness Favor cost over responsiveness for commodity products.

    Favor responsiveness over cost for short lifecycle products.

    Increase Inventory Decentralize inventory of predictable, lower value products.

    Centralize inventory of less predictable, higher value products.

    Increase Flexibility Favor cost over flexibility for predictable, high volume products.

    Favor flexibility for low-volume unpredictable products.

    Centralize flexibility in a few locations if it is expensive.

    Pool or AggregateDemand

    Increase aggregation as unpredictability grows.

    Increase Capability Prefer capability over cost for high-value, high-risk products.

    Favor cost over capability for low-value commodity products.

    Centralize high capability in flexible source if possible.

    Problems With the Classic Mitigation Strategies 10

    Capacity: Flexible manufacturing strategies include short scheduling horizons and fixed cycle manufacturing

    programs. However, extended global chains are less able to benefit from such flexibility due to the inherently longlead times. Also typical global suppliers end up with extended schedules due to conflict of interest from largenumber of buyers. Large expectations can lead to over-commitment of capacity which can become idle later.

    Inventory: In the context of shortening market lifecycles and longer lead times in global supply chains,inventory may become more of a risk than a buffer.

    Dual sourcing: In recent years the number of vendors has been consolidated to get better cost reductions and

    to operate more collaboratively over a long term horizon. The risks inherent in global supply and the challenges infinding and establishing multiple vendors makes the dual sourcing approach even less likely, thus increasing longterm dependency and hence risk.

    Distribution and logistics alternatives

    10

    Alan Braithwaite, "The Supply Chain Risks Of Global Sourcing", http://www.lcp-consulting.com, 2003.

  • 8/7/2019 Managing the Global Supply Chain

    9/15

    Other back-up arrangements

    The last two alternatives also add to the cost. The final decision has to be made after a complete cost-benefitanalysis. There are 3 pertinent points in this regard: -

    1. Increasing cost of risk reduction: Non-linear increasing relationship between risk covered and amount of inventoryrequired.

    2. Risk pooling: Required amount of reserves falls as risks of different places and sources is pooled.3. Increasing benefit of pooling: Non-linear increasing relationship between pooling and risk covered. Pooling isbetter if the product has high forecast or inventory risk.

    Variations of the Traditional Mitigation Strategies

    Generic material inventory / Standardization: Standardized materials which can be converted into a numberof products or disposed of at market price reduce the lead time to procure material or make the products. Thisincreases the responsiveness also.

    Capacity booking with postponed ordering: Commitment to manufacturing capacity for a range of products

    to be made by the vendor and ordering of actual SKU and quantity made based on the latest forecast just before the

    run starts

    Postponement: Design and supply of generic manufactured parts that can be configured or localized in the

    destination markets. This helps to avoid product obsolescence and reduce inventory levels.

    Consolidation / deconsolidation / speed management: Logistics systems that can identify combine and

    route products through the multimodal chain to increase the frequency of shipment and reduce unnecessary timethrough the chain. This helps to increase responsiveness, increase service levels and reduce inventory risk.

    SCOR Model 11

    The Supply Chain Operations Reference-model (SCOR) has been developed and endorsed by the Supply-ChainCouncil (SCC), an independent not-for-profit corporation, as the cross-industry standard for supply-chainmanagement. The SCOR model can be used to define any organizations supply chain by mapping its process onthe Plan, Source, Make, Deliver and Return processes. And depending on the organization-specific processes eachstep can take one process element.

    11SCOR-Model Overview Version 7.0, Supply Chain Council, 2005.Bob Moncrieff, Mark Stonich, "Supply-Chain Practice Maturity Model and Performance Assessment", Supply Chain Council, 2001.

    Paul Pretko, "Supporting the Innovative SCOR Model with a Balanced Scorecard", http://pretko.ascet.com, The ASCET Project.

  • 8/7/2019 Managing the Global Supply Chain

    10/15

    Available Super Set of Options

    Plan

    Demand / Supply Planning and Management

    Balance resources with requirements and establish/communicate plans for the whole supply chain, includingReturn, and the execution processes of Source, Make, and Deliver.

    Management of business rules, supply chain performance, data collection, inventory, capital assets,

    transportation, planning configuration, and regulatory requirements and compliance.

    Align the supply chain unit plan with the financial plan.

    Source

    Sourcing Stocked, Make-to-Order, and Engineer-to-Order Product

    Schedule deliveries; receive, verify, and transfer product; and authorize supplier payments.

    Identify and select supply sources when not predetermined, as for engineer-to-order product.

    Manage business rules, assess supplier performance, and maintain data.

    Manage inventory, capital assets, incoming product, supplier network, import/export requirements, and supplier

    agreements.

    Deliver

    Order, Warehouse, Transportation, and Installation Management for Stocked, Make-to-Order, and Engineer-to-Order Product

    All order management steps from processing customer inquiries and quotes to routing shipments and selectingcarriers.

    Warehouse management from receiving and picking product to load and ship product.

    Receive and verify product at customer site and install, if necessary.

    Invoicing customer.

    Manage Deliver business rules, performance, information, finished product inventories, capital assets,

    transportation, product life cycle, and import/export requirements.

    Return

    Return of Raw Materials and Receipt of Returns of Finished Goods

    All Return Defective Product steps from source - identify product condition, disposition product, request productreturn authorization, schedule product shipment, and return defective product - and deliver - authorized productreturn, schedule return receipt, receive product, and transfer defective product.

    Manage Return business rules, performance, data collection, return inventory, capital assets, transportation,

    network configuration, and regulatory requirements and compliance.

  • 8/7/2019 Managing the Global Supply Chain

    11/15

    So every organization can define its supply chain from its supplier's supplier to the customer's customer by definingthe process elements under its processes. The reason for defining the supply chain using the SCOR model is that itbecomes easier to track and measure the risk involved in each step of the supply chain.

    Risk Tracking 12

    The IT industry uses risk measurement templates to track and measure the risk involved in a particularimplementation, this helps the organizations to track the origin, scale and current intensity of the risks involved. Wefeel a similar template could be developed to track the risks in a global supply chain. The following would be the

    steps in risk tracking of a Global supply chain.

    Risk Assessment: This would entail the quantification of the exposure to a particular risk. The following tableshows a typical risk assessment template.

    Supplier's Supplier

    Process Nature of Risk Applicability Risk Probability Risk Impact

    Plan Legal N.A.

    Criminal Yes 0.5 0.8

    Process Yes 0.8 0.7

    Demand, etc. N.A.

    Source Legal Yes 0.2 0.6Criminal Yes 0.9 0.9

    Risk Response Plan: This would map all the medium and high probability risks to a risk owner and wouldcapture the details of the mitigation plan. These plans should be followed well during the process audits.

    ProcessNature of

    RiskSeverity

    RiskOwner

    MitigationPlan

    Follow-upAction Date

    Plan Legal Low

    Criminal Medium Process Element Leader

    Process High Process Leader Alternate Supplier

    Demand, etc. LowSource Legal Low

    Criminal High Process Leader Hire Security Agency

    Risk Tracking: This would be a mechanism to track the change in the Risk exposure value after the mitigation

    plan has been launched.

    ProcessNature of

    RiskSource of

    Risk10/10/05 10/11/05 10/12/05

    Plan Process High Lead Time 0.5 0.5 0.4

    The above method and template of Risk tracking is currently being adopted at Cognizant Technology Solutions totrack the various types of risks which exist in each of their processes in each project.

    12

    Risk management plan for testing, Cognizent Technology Systems

  • 8/7/2019 Managing the Global Supply Chain

    12/15

    Balanced Scorecard

    Concept of Balanced Scorecard 13

    The balanced scorecard seeks to provide a mechanism for shifting focus from the traditional financial measures ofcompany performance to a balance between financial and non-financial measures. The balanced scorecard letsexecutives see whether they have improved in one area at the expense of another. Forcing all dimensions in onepicture protects companies from posting suboptimal performance. It provides answers to four basic questions for acompany:

    How do customers see us? (customer perspective): Most of the companies are today seeking a transitionfrom an inside-out point of view to an outside-in point of view. In the outside world, the most important stakeholdersare the customers. How a company is performing from its customers' perspective has become, therefore, a priorityfor top management. The balanced scorecard demands that managers translate their general mission statement oncustomer service into specific measures that reflect the factors that really matter to customers.

    What must we excel at? (internal business perspective): Though customer-based measures are important,they need to be translated into measures of what the company must do internally to meet its customers'expectations.

    Can we continue to improve and create value? (innovation and learning perspective): The

    customer-based and internal business process measures on the balanced scorecard identify the parameters thatthe company considers most important for competitive success. But the targets for success keep changing with theintense competition. Thus the company needs to make continual improvements and a company's ability to innovate,improve, and learn ties directly to the company's value.

    How do we look to shareholders? (financial perspective): Financial performance measures indicate

    whether the company's strategy, implementation, and execution are contributing to bottom-line improvement.

    The balanced scorecard seeks to minimize information overload by limiting the number of measures used.

    Balanced Scorecard in Supply Chain 13

    Supply chain as a concept, seeks to shift focus from a single organization to a group of companies, creating valuefor a set of customers. Thus an evaluation system should reflect the inter-company collaboration.

    Companies can work together only if individuals work together. Since performance measurement systems influencebehavior of individuals to a large extent, it must be structured to provide incentives for collaborative behavior.

    13Robert Kaplan and David P. Norton, "The Balanced Scorecard - Measures that drive performance", HBR, 1992.

    Werner Delfmann and Sascha Albers, "Supply Chain Management in Global Context", www.uni-koeln.de/wiso-fak/planung, 2002.

  • 8/7/2019 Managing the Global Supply Chain

    13/15

    Most importantly, supply chain as a concept can be successful only if we move from local optimization to overalloptimization. Any company which is a part of the supply chain needs to focus on the value maximization,satisfaction and minimizing cost of serving the ultimate customer, irrespective of its own position in the chain. Thereal-life challenge however is to design chain-spanning performance measurement systems. The systems beingused in industry as of now lend themselves best to a functional division. e.g. logistics, warehousing, production etcall use their own specific set of measures and these measures differ from company to company across the chain.

    Balanced scorecard can come in handy in such a situation to bring focus across different companies in the sameway as it did across different functional areas inside a single company. Applications of balanced Scorecard to SCMhave been discussed, though in preliminary stages.

    The balanced scorecard has been proposed from two perspectives:

    Supply chain with time as a critical success factors: For a single company, cash-to-cash cycle is measuredby adding the average number of days that accounts receivable are outstanding and the average number of daysinventory is on hand and subtracting the number of days accounts payable For a supply chain, the same measure ismeasured between most downstream and the most upstream link to the end customer.

    Supply chain with flexibility as a critical success factors: The innovation and learning measure "rate of

    improvement in product finalization point" is on the premise that postponing the finalization of finished goodsminimizes stockouts and markdowns In other words, postponement enables customer orders to drive the finalizationof products in real time. The process measure "number of choices relative to average response time" assesseswhether the supply chain can offer variety (in terms of patterns, order configurations, SKUs etc); without undulydelaying the time taken to fill the order The goal is to either increase the variety offered while at a minimum,maintaining current response time capability, or decrease response-time capability while maintaining the currentbreadth of order configurations supported. The customer measure "customer perception of flexible response" usessurvey data to determine if the customers feel confident that their order requirements will be met withoutexperiencing excessive delays. Improving the process measure "number of choices relative to average responsetime" should improve the customer's perception of the supply chain's ability to respond flexibly The financialmeasure "supply chain gross margin" compares the supply chain's raw material and conversion costs to therevenue realized from the end customer.

  • 8/7/2019 Managing the Global Supply Chain

    14/15

    Balanced Scorecard and Risk in Supply Chain

    However, the Balanced Scorecard can also be used to measure Risk as a specific non-financial parameter. The realsuccess can be achieved if the presently intangible parameter of risk is quantified into some tangible loss/gain in

    financial terms. This can help the user identify the exact impact of any changes brought about at operational levels.

    The innovation and learning part corresponds ot the risk identification across the chain as has been suggestedearlier and its continuous mitigation strategies. This will help improve the productivity of the chain as a whole (on theassumption that the risks of different types delay or stop the output in a given time frame). The customer perceptionof better service levels is what allows the company to charge higher gross margins.

    Experience has revealed that balanced scorecard is most effective when driving the process of change, as it canhelp bring focus to a set of strategies. It can help bring focus to the company's mission, strategy and keyperformance measures. This new approach to performance measurement is consistent with the initiatives underway in many companies: cross-functional integration, customer- supplier partnerships, global scale, continuousimprovement, and team rather than individual accountability. It will lead to discussions and consensus buildingwhich increases the chances of successful implementation and acceptability.

    Some Mathematical Beginnings 14

    Some mathematical techniques are also being proposed to analyze Supply Chain risk, with the emphasis oncapturing the risk due to interlinkages. To analyze any risk, we need to know:

    Possible modes of damage to the assets

    Probability associated with each mode

    Damage can be caused by various events and often an event of disruption triggers a set of events as in a chainreaction. Thus, a complete causal tree structure and an inferencing engine is required to determine the most

    14

    Roshan R. Pai, Venkata R. Kallepalli, Reggie J. Caudill and MengChu Zhou, "Methods Toward Supply Chain Risk Analysis", IEEE, 2003.

  • 8/7/2019 Managing the Global Supply Chain

    15/15

    probable path and the relative probabilities of occurrence for any chain of events. Inferencing can be done usingthree techniques-

    1. Bayesian NetworksBayesian networks are based on the Baye's theorem

    The theorem gives a methodology to combine subjective beliefs and the evidence available. Bayesian networks inrecent years have evolved as a powerful tool to handle uncertainty. Bayesian networks are used in a variety ofapplications requiring high reliability and have the capability of forward and backward inferencing.

    2. Fuzzy Logic

    3. Hybrid Fuzzy- Bayesian Networks

    Scope for Further Analysis

    Further analysis is possible in the following broad areas: -

    Use of the other type of metrics like EVA, ABC in risk measurement and mitigation

    Mathematical analysis to identify and allocate probabilities and costs to different risk drivers

    Analysis of vast amounts of data available in ERP systems around the world to better quantify risk

    Implementation issues related to different organizations across the supply chain

    IT systems to be put in place for implementation of wider systems

    Concluded.