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© 2020 Old Dominion University
Management of Complex Systems and Their Wicked Problems
June 4, 2020
Chuck Keating, [email protected]
Management of Complexity
Complexity in our systems is not optional -- how we manage that complexity is ….
0316 Point Governance (control) Check for Complex Systems –(QIA) Quiz-in-Action
02Why? A Systems Theory Explanation and Response
Explain
01Complex Systems, the Problem Domain & Wicked Problems
Management of Complex
Systems and Wicked
Problems
Discussion
Basic Notion of an Open System
Environment
OutputInput Transformation
Feedback (extrinsic)
Boundary
© 2020 C. Keating, All rights reserved
What makes a system complex
Richly interconnected, nonlinear relationships, elaboration
Five
Poi
nts
Pers
pect
iveLarge number of entities
Uncertainty
Dynamic Interaction
Emergent
Ambiguous
Cause-effect relationships poorly understood; fallible knowledge
Changing over time
Unpredictable behaviors, patterns, performance
Lack of clarity in system definition and context
1
2
3
4
5
Complex System Problem Domain
Complex System Problem Domain
Politics
Infrastructure
Social
Information
Culture
Education
Resources
Demographics
Economics
Environment Technology
Laws & Regulations
Conflicting Perspectives
Shifting Demands
Unstable Resources
High Uncertainty
Emergent Situations Solution Urgency
Lack Sufficient Information
Misinformation/defensiveness
Politically Charged
Divergent Stakeholders
Unclear Entry Point
Ambiguous Boundaries
Unintended Consequences
Instabilities
© 2020 C. Keating, All rights reserved
Produces Wicked Problems*
*Adapted from Rittel, H., and M. Webber; “Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning” pp 155-169, Policy Sciences, Vol. 4, Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company, Inc., Amsterdam, 1973.
System ‘Variety’ can explain a lotVariety is a measure of complexityMeasured as the number of different possible system statesMathematically, to compute the variety of a non-trivial simple system
V : Varietyz : the number of possible
states of each elementn : Number of elements
V = zn
Example – Variety for a project team ‘system’
Given 17 project team membersEach member can be in one of 9 states: (1) highly engaged, (2) engaged, (3) somewhat engaged, (4) neither engaged nor disengaged, (5) somewhat disengaged, (6) disengaged, (7) highly disengaged, (8) checked out, (9) uninterested
V = zn = 917
16,677,181,699,666,569Or Approx 16.7 Quadrillion
© 2018 C. Keating, All rights reserved
What does increasing complexity look like in graphical form?
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
0000000
0000000
1E+09
1E+10
1E+11
1E+12
1E+13
1E+14
1E+15
1E+16
1E+17
1E+18
1E+19
1E+20
1E+21
1E+22
1E+23
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Variety as Measure of Complexity (logarithm base 10)
Entities Variety
1E+23 = 100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000or 100 sextillion
Perspective of Ashby’s Law of Requisite Variety
‘only variety can destroy variety’ (Ashby, 1956: 207)
“If a system is to be stable, the number of states of its control mechanism must be greater than or equal to the number of states in the system being controlled.” (Ashby)
W. Ross Ashby1903 – 1972
Vr > Ve
Requisite Variety
Lewis, G. J., & Stewart, N. (2003). The measurement of environmental performance: an application of Ashby's law. Systems Research and Behavioral Science: The Official Journal of the International Federation for Systems Research, 20(1), 31-52.
Four Fundamental Points of Requisite Variety
Regulation is about implementing controlsthat constrain system elements
RV is managed by system design: self-organization, accretion, or purposeful
Paradox of complex system control: To get control you must give up control
Over constraint wastes resources and ‘steals’ element autonomy. Under constraint sacrifices system level performance and integration.
© 2020 Old Dominion University © Copyright 2020 Old Dominion University
System Variety must equal or exceed Environment Variety
© 2020 Old Dominion University © Copyright 2020 Old Dominion University
CSG is the design, execution, and evolution of the [nine] metasystem functions necessary to provide control, communication, coordination, and integration of a complex system.
Required for viability of all complex systems; effectiveness responsible for performance
Only three things that can be done with respect to a system
Produces and maintains system viability and sustainable performance
*Keating, C. B., Katina, P. F., & Bradley, J. M. (2014). Complex system governance: concept, challenges, and emerging research. International Journal of System of Systems Engineering, 5(3), 263-288.
Policy and Identity – focused on overall steering, giving direction
and identity for the system. Includes system context and
strategic monitoring
System Operations –focused on the day to day operations of the metasystem to ensure that the system maintains performance levels. Includes operational performance.
System Development – focused on the long-range development of the system to ensure future viability. Includes environmental scanning and ‘learning and transformation’.
Information & Communications –focused the flow of information and consistency of interpretation of exchanges
Puppet(s)
Puppet Master
Puppet Designer
© 2020 Old Dominion University
ComplexSystem(s)
Governance
Keating, C.B., Katina, P.F., & Bradley, J. M. (2014). Complex system governance: concept, challenges, and emerging research. International Journal of System of Systems Engineering, 5(3), 263-288.
Analogy for CSG – the Puppet Master
83 System Theory Principles, Laws,
Concepts
Maps to 9 Governance Functions
OBSERVEDFAILURE(s)
Same underlying system pathology appears as ‘different’ surface issues
53 ComplexSystem Pathologies
UNOBSERVED FAILURE SOURCES
Cost Overrun Schedule Overrun
Missed Performance Target
High Employee Turnover
In Summary - CSG in a Nutshell
All systems perform essential governance functions and are subject to fundamental systems laws. Violation of fundamental system laws produces consequences that degrade system performance. System performance can be enhanced through purposeful design, execution, and evolution [development] of essential system governance functions in accordance with fundamental system laws.
(Keating, 2016)
* select a complex system of interest (project, entity, organization, team, department, program, service, etc.)
Item 1 2 3 4 5
1We have a detailed mapping of our system (organization) that shows how we function to produce value.
2
We actively perform scanning of our environment by design to identify events, entities, trends, or patterns that impact present system (organization) performance and future system (organization) development.
3 We effectively keep up with turbulence and rate of change that exist in our environment.
4Our system (organization) effectively balances accountability with resources necessary to achieve expected levels of performance.
ScoringLess More
Item 1 2 3 4 5
5We routinely communicate the right information, at the right time, and at the right place to support consistent decision and action.
6
We share and maintain our identity such that our uniqueness is clear and we have a common reference point to support consistent decision, action, and interpretation.
7Our strategic system (organization) performance measures are balanced, monitored, and effectively utilized for system (organization) improvement.
8We effectively detect, correct, and learn from our system errors, making system (organization) adjustments to preclude recurrence.
ScoringLess More
Item 1 2 3 4 5
9
Our system (organization) design provides the greatest possible degree of flexibility for making local decisions and taking action in response to changing circumstances.
10
We actively pursue rigorous ‘self-study’ of our system (organization) design and execution in pursuit of purposeful system (organization) development.
11
There is an appropriate balance between short and long term focus for our system (organization) that continues to evolve with our changing circumstances.
12
We provide effective coordination and communication between entities in our system (organization) such that unnecessary variability is eliminated.
ScoringLess More
Item 1 2 3 4 5
13Our system (organization) design and execution effectively eliminates operation in “crisis” or “reactive” modes.
14
We effectively design and account for the wide range of influences on our system (organization) [technical, human, social, organizational, managerial, political, policy, cultural, and stakeholder].
15We are effective in management of the different stakeholders who have an interest and impact on our system (organization).
16Our operational performance measures are effective in assessing the day to day function of our system (organization).
ScoringLess More
16 Point Check – So what? Who cares? What’s the big deal?
Sum the totals for the Check:
0 – 48 System may need major modifications
49 – 64 System may need some modification
65 – 80 System appears in good working order
Any item 3 or below should be evaluated
© 2020 C. Keating, All rights reserved
Open Discussion
Chuck Keating, Ph.D., [email protected]
Old Dominion UniversityEngineering Management & Systems EngineeringNational Centers for System of Systems Engineering