MakingMakingProject DecisionsProject Decisions

TutorialTutorial

© Copyright 1999 © Copyright 1999 NexPrise, Inc. (408) 327-0330 www.nexprise.comNexPrise, Inc. (408) 327-0330 www.nexprise.com

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Tutorial AgendaTutorial Agenda

Overview Overview • General ProceduresGeneral Procedures

Pertinent InformationPertinent Information• AlternativesAlternatives• CriteriaCriteria• MembersMembers• Ranking CriteriaRanking Criteria• Indicating Knowledge & Indicating Knowledge &

ConfidenceConfidence

Finding the Best AlternativeFinding the Best Alternative• The Satisfaction ChartThe Satisfaction Chart• Is Further Research Needed?Is Further Research Needed?• Focusing the Belief MapFocusing the Belief Map

Tutorial Agenda Tutorial Agenda Continued…Continued…

Maintaining Scenarios Maintaining Scenarios • Renaming InformationRenaming Information• Deleting InformationDeleting Information• Clearing Information from the ScenarioClearing Information from the Scenario• Printing a SummaryPrinting a Summary• The iDecision PageThe iDecision Page

Building a Sample ScenarioBuilding a Sample Scenario• 3 Alternatives3 Alternatives• 3 Criteria3 Criteria• 3 Members3 Members• Rank CriteriaRank Criteria• Confidence & Knowledge LevelsConfidence & Knowledge Levels• Examine the Initial ResultsExamine the Initial Results• Is More Research Needed?Is More Research Needed?• Change Input Based on New KnowledgeChange Input Based on New Knowledge• Examine the New ResultsExamine the New Results

Making ProjectMaking Project Decisions Decisions

The Decision-Making ProcessThe Decision-Making Process

• Discuss InformallyDiscuss Informally

• Winnow AlternativesWinnow Alternatives

• Develop ConsensusDevelop Consensus

The Advantages of iDecisionThe Advantages of iDecision

• Makes the Usual Informal Makes the Usual Informal Process More MethodicalProcess More Methodical

• Speeds Decision MakingSpeeds Decision Making

• Involves All PersonnelInvolves All Personnel

GeneralGeneral Procedures Procedures

• Enter the Alternatives Under ConsiderationEnter the Alternatives Under Consideration

• Enter Important CriteriaEnter Important Criteria

• Rank the CriteriaRank the Criteria

• Save These EntriesSave These Entries(Continued…)(Continued…)

General General ProceduresProcedures

Continued . . .Continued . . .

• Analyze Team Input With The Satisfaction ChartAnalyze Team Input With The Satisfaction Chart• Consult The Belief Map (If Necessary)Consult The Belief Map (If Necessary)

• Decide If You Have Enough InformationDecide If You Have Enough Information• Consult The Sensitivity Pane, If NecessaryConsult The Sensitivity Pane, If Necessary

• Initiate Another Cycle, If NecessaryInitiate Another Cycle, If Necessary• Perform More ResearchPerform More Research

• Edit the Belief MapEdit the Belief Map

• Re-analyzeRe-analyze

Entering Pertinent Entering Pertinent InformationInformation

• Entering AlternativesEntering Alternatives

• Entering CriteriaEntering Criteria

• Entering MembersEntering Members

• Indicating Your Knowledge & Indicating Your Knowledge & Confidence in the AlternativesConfidence in the Alternatives

• Saving the ScenarioSaving the Scenario

EnteringEntering Alternatives Alternatives

• Click NewClick New

• Double-click the New Alternative Double-click the New Alternative (the Default Name Is A1) (the Default Name Is A1)

oror

• Right-click, Then Choose EditRight-click, Then Choose Edit

• Enter a Name for the AlternativeEnter a Name for the Alternative

• Click AcceptClick Accept

• Repeat for All Other AlternativesRepeat for All Other Alternatives

Entering CriteriaEntering Criteria

ConsiderationsConsiderations• General Or Specific Phrasing?General Or Specific Phrasing?• Avoid “Higher Or Lower ?” AmbiguityAvoid “Higher Or Lower ?” Ambiguity• To Enter CriteriaTo Enter Criteria• Click NewClick New• The Default Name of the New Criteria The Default Name of the New Criteria

Is “C1”Is “C1”• Double-click the Criterion NameDouble-click the Criterion Name

oror• Right-click the Name, Then Choose Right-click the Name, Then Choose

EditEdit• Enter a Short, Descriptive Name to Enter a Short, Descriptive Name to

Replace the DefaultReplace the Default• Click AcceptClick Accept• Repeat for All Other Relevant CriteriaRepeat for All Other Relevant Criteria

Entering MembersEntering Members• Open the Members PaneOpen the Members Pane• Click NewClick New

• Double-click the Default Name (M1) Double-click the Default Name (M1) oror

• Right-click, Then Choose EditRight-click, Then Choose Edit• Add a Member NameAdd a Member Name

• Keep the Default Prefix (MKeep the Default Prefix (Mxx) to Make the ) to Make the Belief Map More ReadableBelief Map More Readable

• Use Last Names (or Other Consistent Use Last Names (or Other Consistent Naming Protocol)Naming Protocol)

• Names Can Be Any LengthNames Can Be Any Length• Names Can Include Numbers, Names Can Include Numbers,

Characters, and SymbolsCharacters, and Symbols• Click AcceptClick Accept• Repeat for All Team MembersRepeat for All Team Members

Ranking CriteriaRanking Criteria

• Click Your Name to Select itClick Your Name to Select it

• Click the Weights TabClick the Weights Tab

• Use the Slider to Set Factor Use the Slider to Set Factor WeightsWeights

• Note: Note: For Optimal Results Try to Use For Optimal Results Try to Use the Entire Slider Range to Indicate the Entire Slider Range to Indicate Relative WeightsRelative Weights

Knowledge of &Knowledge of & Confidence in Alternatives Confidence in Alternatives

Sources for EvaluationSources for Evaluation

• Your Team’s Criteria WeightingsYour Team’s Criteria Weightings• Your Confidence Level (Belief) in Each Your Confidence Level (Belief) in Each

AlternativeAlternative• Your Knowledge Level for Each AlternativeYour Knowledge Level for Each Alternative

Plot SelectivelyPlot Selectively

• You Don’t Need to Plot Points for Every You Don’t Need to Plot Points for Every Alternative and CriterionAlternative and Criterion

• Plot Points if You Have Strong Knowledge of Plot Points if You Have Strong Knowledge of Them, Or Consider Them ImportantThem, Or Consider Them Important

Placing Points on Placing Points on the Belief Mapthe Belief Map

• Select Your NameSelect Your Name

• Select an AlternativeSelect an Alternative

• Select a CriteriaSelect a Criteria

• Plot on the Belief MapPlot on the Belief Map• Color Indicates AlternativeColor Indicates Alternative• Number Indicates CriterionNumber Indicates Criterion• Tag May Indicate Member Tag May Indicate Member

NameName

• Repeat, as NecessaryRepeat, as Necessary

Changing PointsChanging Points on the Belief Map on the Belief Map

• Do NotDo Not Click and Drag Click and Drag

• Select the PointSelect the Point

• As if Plotting a New Point As if Plotting a New Point Select:Select:• MemberMember• Alternative Alternative • CriterionCriterion

• Click PositionClick Position

Saving the Saving the ScenarioScenario

Publish the PagePublish the Page

Save Iterations as Save Iterations as Revisions To Create a Revisions To Create a Document HistoryDocument History

Finding the Best Finding the Best AlternativeAlternative

Three Key FactorsThree Key Factors• Relative ImportanceRelative Importance• Knowledge LevelKnowledge Level• Confidence LevelConfidence Level

Tools for Examining InputTools for Examining Input• The Satisfaction ChartThe Satisfaction Chart• The Sensitivity PaneThe Sensitivity Pane

GoalsGoals• Find the Alternative Most Find the Alternative Most

Satisfying, Regardless of MemberSatisfying, Regardless of Member• Leave No Remaining Items in the Leave No Remaining Items in the

Sensitivity PaneSensitivity Pane

Viewing the Viewing the Satisfaction ChartSatisfaction Chart

• In the Member Pane, Click In the Member Pane, Click Each MemberEach Member to to Examine His or Her AssessmentExamine His or Her Assessment

• iDecision Considers all Information on the iDecision Considers all Information on the Belief Map (and the Ranking Given by the Belief Map (and the Ranking Given by the Current Member)Current Member)

• A Bar Represents Each Alternative (Its A Bar Represents Each Alternative (Its Height Represents Your Team’s Relative Height Represents Your Team’s Relative Evaluations)Evaluations)

GoalsGoals• End up with One Highest Bar, Regardless End up with One Highest Bar, Regardless

of Member, of Member, oror• Understand Specifically Why That Doesn’t Understand Specifically Why That Doesn’t

HappenHappen

Is Further Research Is Further Research NeededNeeded

The Sensitivity PaneThe Sensitivity Pane• Helps You Decide Whether Further Helps You Decide Whether Further

Research Is NeededResearch Is Needed• Considers All Belief Map Input With Considers All Belief Map Input With

Criteria Weighting From the Current Criteria Weighting From the Current MemberMember

• If the Pane Is Blank, No More If the Pane Is Blank, No More Research Is NeededResearch Is Needed

• If Questions Remain in the Pane, If Questions Remain in the Pane, Your Team Needs to Do More Your Team Needs to Do More ResearchResearch

• Repeat Research Cycles Until the Repeat Research Cycles Until the Sensitivity Pane Is BlankSensitivity Pane Is Blank

Using the Belief MapUsing the Belief Map

Alternatives Pane, Show All=Alternatives Pane, Show All=OffOffCriteria Pane, Show All=Criteria Pane, Show All=OffOffMembers Pane, Show All=Members Pane, Show All=OffOff

A SingleA Single (Current) Alternative, (Current) Alternative, A SingleA Single (Current) Criterion, (Current) Criterion, A SingleA Single (Current) Member’s Input (Current) Member’s Input

Alternatives Pane, Show All=Alternatives Pane, Show All=OffOffCriteria Pane, Show All=Criteria Pane, Show All=OffOffMembers Pane, Show All=Members Pane, Show All=OnOn

A SingleA Single (Current) Alternative, (Current) Alternative, A SingleA Single (Current) Criterion, (Current) Criterion, AllAll Member’s Input Member’s Input

Alternatives Pane, Show All=Alternatives Pane, Show All=OffOffCriteria Pane, Show All=Criteria Pane, Show All=OnOnMembers Pane, Show All=Members Pane, Show All=OffOff

A SingleA Single (Current) Alternative, (Current) Alternative, AllAll Criteria, Criteria, A SingleA Single (Current) (Current) Members’ InputMembers’ Input

Alternatives Pane, Show All=Alternatives Pane, Show All=OffOffCriteria Pane, Show All=Criteria Pane, Show All=OnOnMembers Pane, Show All=Members Pane, Show All=OnOn

A SingleA Single (Current) Alternative, (Current) Alternative, AllAll Criteria, Criteria, All All Member’s InputMember’s Input

Alternatives Pane, Show All=Alternatives Pane, Show All=OnOnCriteria Pane, Show All=Criteria Pane, Show All=OffOffMembers Pane, Show All=Members Pane, Show All=OffOff

AllAll Alternatives, Alternatives, A SingleA Single (Current) Criterion, (Current) Criterion,A SingleA Single (Current) Member’s Input (Current) Member’s Input

Alternatives Pane, Show All=Alternatives Pane, Show All=OnOnCriteria Pane, Show All=Criteria Pane, Show All=OffOffMembers Pane, Show All=Members Pane, Show All=OnOn

All All Alternatives,Alternatives,A SingleA Single (Current) Criterion, (Current) Criterion,AllAll Member’s Input Member’s Input

Alternatives Pane, Show All=Alternatives Pane, Show All=OnOnCriteria Pane, Show All=Criteria Pane, Show All=OnOnMembers Pane, Show All=Members Pane, Show All=OffOff

All All Alternatives, Alternatives, AllAll Criteria, Criteria, A SingleA Single (Current) Member’s Input (Current) Member’s Input

Alternatives Pane, Show All=Alternatives Pane, Show All=OnOnCriteria Pane, Show All=Criteria Pane, Show All=OnOnMembers Pane, Show All=Members Pane, Show All=OnOn

All All Alternatives, Alternatives, AllAll Criteria, Criteria, AllAll Member’s Input Member’s Input

Maintaining Maintaining ScenariosScenariosRenaming InformationRenaming Information

• Right-click the Name.Right-click the Name.• On the Menu, Click On the Menu, Click EditEdit..• Change the Name.Change the Name.• Click Click AcceptAccept..

Deleting InformationDeleting Information• Right-click the Right-click the NameName..• On the Menu, Click On the Menu, Click DeleteDelete..

Clearing All Information From the ScenarioClearing All Information From the Scenario• Click Click Clear AllClear All

Printing a Summary of the ScenarioPrinting a Summary of the Scenario• Click Click ReportReport

The iDecision PageThe iDecision Page

• Click the iDecision TabClick the iDecision Tab

oror

• Click a Page to Jump Click a Page to Jump Directly to a That Page’s Directly to a That Page’s Decision ScenarioDecision Scenario

Build a Sample Build a Sample ScenarioScenario

Nine Steps:Nine Steps:

• Enter the Three AlternativesEnter the Three Alternatives• Enter the Three CriteriaEnter the Three Criteria• Enter the Three MembersEnter the Three Members• Rank the CriteriaRank the Criteria• Enter Confidence and Knowledge LevelsEnter Confidence and Knowledge Levels• Examine the Results of the Initial InputExamine the Results of the Initial Input• Determine Whether More Research Is NeededDetermine Whether More Research Is Needed• Change Input Based on New KnowledgeChange Input Based on New Knowledge• Examine the Results of the New InputExamine the Results of the New Input

The Three The Three AlternativesAlternatives

• Click Click NewNew

• Replace Default Name Replace Default Name “A“Axx…”…”

• Click Click AcceptAccept

• Repeat for All Repeat for All AlternativesAlternatives

The Three CriteriaThe Three Criteria

• Click Click NewNew

• Replace Default Name Replace Default Name “C“Cxx…”…”

• Click Click AcceptAccept

• Repeat for All CriteriaRepeat for All Criteria

The Three The Three MembersMembers• In the Members Pane, Double In the Members Pane, Double

Click M1 and Replace It With Click M1 and Replace It With the First Member Name. the First Member Name.

• Click Click AcceptAccept..

• Click Click NewNew in the in the MembersMembers Pane. Pane.

• Double Click M2 and Replace Double Click M2 and Replace It With the Second NameIt With the Second Name

• Click Click AcceptAccept..

• Repeat for the Third MemberRepeat for the Third Member

Rank the CriteriaRank the Criteria

• Click the First MemberClick the First Member

• Click Criteria WeightsClick Criteria Weights

• Set Member Input with Set Member Input with SlidersSliders

• Repeat for the Second and Repeat for the Second and Third MembersThird Members

• Publish the PagePublish the Page

ConfidenceConfidence & & KnowledgeKnowledge

Enter Confidence & Knowledge LevelsEnter Confidence & Knowledge Levels

• Click the Members tabClick the Members tab

• Click Member 1Click Member 1

• Click Alternative 1Click Alternative 1

• Click Criteria 1Click Criteria 1

• Click Click Show AllShow All in the Criteria Pane. (It in the Criteria Pane. (It Should Appear Darkened)Should Appear Darkened)

• Click the Belief Map at Point 1Click the Belief Map at Point 1

• Click Criterion 2Click Criterion 2

• Click Click Show AllShow All (If It Is Not Already (If It Is Not Already Darkened)Darkened)

• Click the Belief Map at Point 2 Click the Belief Map at Point 2

• Repeat for All Other CriteriaRepeat for All Other Criteria

• Repeat for All Other AlternativesRepeat for All Other Alternatives

• Repeat for All Other MembersRepeat for All Other Members

ConfidenceConfidence & & KnowledgeKnowledge

• Enter Ron’s Confidence Enter Ron’s Confidence and Knowledge Leveland Knowledge Level

• Enter Ron’s Opinions Enter Ron’s Opinions About the Jackrabbit About the Jackrabbit AlternativeAlternative

• Etc.Etc.

Confidence & Confidence & Knowledge Levels Knowledge Levels

(continued…)(continued…)Enter Ed’s Confidence & Knowledge LevelsEnter Ed’s Confidence & Knowledge Levels• Click Elastomer in the alternatives pane.Click Elastomer in the alternatives pane.• Click Cost < $15 in the criteria pane.Click Cost < $15 in the criteria pane.• Click position 1 in the Belief map.Click position 1 in the Belief map.• Click Attractive in the criteria pane.Click Attractive in the criteria pane.• Click position 3 in the Belief map .Click position 3 in the Belief map .

Enter Ed’s Opinions On the Jackrabbit AlternativeEnter Ed’s Opinions On the Jackrabbit Alternative• Click Jackrabbit in the alternatives pane.Click Jackrabbit in the alternatives pane.• Click Cost < $15 in the criteria pane.Click Cost < $15 in the criteria pane.• Click position 1 on the Belief map.Click position 1 on the Belief map.• Click Attractive in the criteria pane.Click Attractive in the criteria pane.• Click position 3 on the Belief map.Click position 3 on the Belief map.

Enter Ed’s Opinions on the Sprung AlternativeEnter Ed’s Opinions on the Sprung Alternative• Click Cushion in the alternatives pane.Click Cushion in the alternatives pane.• Click Attractive in the criteria pane.Click Attractive in the criteria pane.• Click the position 3 on the Belief map.Click the position 3 on the Belief map.

ExamineExamine the Initial Results the Initial Results

• In the Members Pane, Click KenIn the Members Pane, Click Ken• Notice that the bar representing Elastomer is the highest.Notice that the bar representing Elastomer is the highest.

• In the Members Pane, Click RonIn the Members Pane, Click Ron• Here, too, Elastomer is the highest bar, but not by much.Here, too, Elastomer is the highest bar, but not by much.

• In the Members Pane, Click EdIn the Members Pane, Click Ed• Elastomer is highest, Jackrabbit is next and Cushion last.Elastomer is highest, Jackrabbit is next and Cushion last.

Decide If More Research is NecessaryDecide If More Research is Necessary

Determine If More Determine If More Research is NeededResearch is Needed

Examine the Sensitivity Panes for Each MemberExamine the Sensitivity Panes for Each Member• In the Members Pane, Click Ken. In the Members Pane, Click Ken.

• The sensitivity pane shows that more information about The sensitivity pane shows that more information about the comfort of each alternative could change the the comfort of each alternative could change the satisfaction rating. This seems logical, considering that satisfaction rating. This seems logical, considering that ken ranked comfort as the most important criterion.ken ranked comfort as the most important criterion.

• In the Member’s Pane, Click Ron. In the Member’s Pane, Click Ron. • The pane shows that more research about the elastomer The pane shows that more research about the elastomer

and jackrabbit could change the satisfaction ranking.and jackrabbit could change the satisfaction ranking.• In the Member’s Pane, Click Ed. In the Member’s Pane, Click Ed.

• Again, we see that more information could change the Again, we see that more information could change the results.results.

Change Input Based Change Input Based on New Knowledgeon New Knowledge

Change Ken’s Points:Change Ken’s Points:• Click KenClick Ken

• Click Elastomer on the Alternatives PaneClick Elastomer on the Alternatives Pane• Click Cost <$15 on the Alternatives PaneClick Cost <$15 on the Alternatives Pane• Click the Position on the Belief Map Corresponding to Point 1Click the Position on the Belief Map Corresponding to Point 1• Repeat for the Other 2 CriteriaRepeat for the Other 2 Criteria

• Repeat the Entire Process for Ron and Ed. Publish ResultsRepeat the Entire Process for Ron and Ed. Publish Results

Examine the Results Examine the Results of the New Inputof the New Input

• In the Members Pane, Click KenIn the Members Pane, Click Ken• Notice that Jackrabbit is now the highest bar, based on Ken’s Notice that Jackrabbit is now the highest bar, based on Ken’s

rankings of the criteria.rankings of the criteria.

• In the Members Pane, Click Ron. In the Members Pane, Click Ron. • Here, the satisfaction chart now shows that Jackrabbit, not Here, the satisfaction chart now shows that Jackrabbit, not

Elastomer, best fit’s the company’s needs.Elastomer, best fit’s the company’s needs.

• In the Members Pane, Click Ed. In the Members Pane, Click Ed. • Based on Ed’s rankings of the criteria, the Elastomer is still Based on Ed’s rankings of the criteria, the Elastomer is still

the best choice. This is primarily because Ed ranked Cost as the best choice. This is primarily because Ed ranked Cost as the most important criterion.the most important criterion.