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Making innovation portfolio societal sensitive: A morphological view on nanotechnology sustainable development in Iran
Sahar Kousari1
Ph.D. student- futures studies (technology)
University of Tehran -faculty of new sciences & technologies
Tehran-Iran
Abstract:
New-emerging technologies in general and nanotechnology in particular have vast social and
economic promises for innovative radical changes in the characteristics of the materials, products and
services. But the studies show that many characteristics such as high chemical reactivity have
reversal effects on the health of the human and environment. Calls for appropriate regulation and
societal formation of nanotechnology developments have been made, resulting in the concept of
sustainable nanotechnology governance. In order to develop and apply nanotechnology, we will
require anticipatory knowledge, suitable methodology, and integral perspective. In this research we
will study the possible scenarios of the future of the nanotechnology development in Iran (Reference
year 2025).This study employs a formalized scenario methodology, featuring system analysis,
morphology analysis and trans-disciplinary collaboration by Delphi method. In this research we
introduce functional scenario method as a valuable method for sustainable and anticipatory
governance for the development of the emerging technologies.
Key words:
Societal factors, Sustainable development, nanotechnology, Iran
1.Introduction
Nowadays, the benefits of the innovative development in nanotechnology is evident, but despite all
the beneficial characteristics of the nanotechnology development [1], several researches have been
conducted to show the negative side effects and possible negative impacts of the development and
the applications of nanotechnology on the environment and on the human health, etc [2-4].Against
such a background, questions arose about an ―appropriate‖ pace of nanotechnology development [5]
that leads to the evolution of the concept of sustainable governance of nanotechnology [6-8,9]; while
the main characteristics of such sustainable governance are as follow:
It covers the whole decision;
It covers the concept of sustainable development, balancing social, economic and
environmental costs and benefits of (technological) innovation;
It relies on inter-institutional arrangement including science, business, government, and
the public [10].
A core component of sustainable governance cycle includes good understanding of:
how the socio-technical system functions (analytical);
how the system could evolve (anticipatory);
what would be positive/ negative impacts & how the system should evolve (normative);
2
what would be the precautionary & protective measures to avoid the undesirable
development (action-oriented) [8].
In this regard, the recent contributions include:
analytical studies about the available knowledge [11],
systematic interaction [8],
actor network constellation [12],
anticipatory studies [13,14],
technical and laypeople assessment studies [3, 15, 16] and
policy and regulation studies [17, 7, 18,19],
8 years ago, The Technology Cooperation Office (TCO) in Iran concluded that
nanotechnology development in Iran needed a national initiative. This initiative was
developed and approved by cabinet in 2005 with the title "National Iranian Nanotechnology
Initiative" (NINI) but NINI program and other researches (as mentioned) have focused on the
development of specific nano-technological applications or fields of application. In this
study, we present a trans-disciplinary study on nanotechnology development in Iran (as a
developing country), based on morphologic approach and sustainable governance and
societal factors for scenario construction. we have attempted to construct the scenarios for
innovative development for nanotechnology based on the core component of sustainable
governance and societal factors.
2.Methodology
In this research we have used the morphological approach for scenario construction [20, 21].
Scenario construction can be used for different states of development of emerging
technologies and their relevant social and technological systems [19, 22-24].. In this
framework, we used morphological methodology for scenario construction; then we will
construct a scenario of consistency set of the future projections each of which has its own
impact.
In this regard, scenarios with highest consistency will be identified. Currently in this research
we have used the quick method of consistency analysis based on the morphological approach
that is an expert-based approach and we get convergence by Delphi method in three stage
[25]. From the most consistent scenarios, a ‗‗small‘‘ number is selected based on the criterion
of diversity as well as the criterion of ‗meaningfulness,‘ which reflects insights from the body
of theoretical and empirical literature. Accordingly, in this research the scenarios will be
constructed based on the qualitative analysis made by the experts.
The analysis provided (i) a typology of nanotechnological applications (application variables)
and a set of context variables, such as public reaction, private investment and legal
regulations and …, which are relevant for nanotechnology development in Iran; and (ii)
descriptions of structures and dynamic potentials of nanotechnology as a socio-technical
system, identifying variable clusters of systemic significance and basic interactions between
3
these clusters such as business rationale, public institutions, and public interest. On this basis,
the following four steps were conducted:
(1) determining future projections(what are future projections for application variables and
context variables?), (2) morphology analysis (How is relationship between strategies and
future projections(in fact, a scenario is a set of consistency of FP2)?), (3) selection of
scenarios (How to select the different scenarios considering diversity criteria?), (4)
interpretation of selected scenarios and illustration(what are interpretation of scenarios) This
is a trans-disciplinary study that is the result of the cooperation of scientists, business
stakeholder, administration, and society [20, 26].
2.1.Future projection
FUTURE PROJECTIONs are indeed main elements that construct scenarios. The sources of
identifying FUTURE PROJECTIONs are as follow: trend continuation, prognoses, transfer of
circumstances from similar systems, and existing scenarios. Focusing on the available
literature published in last 13 years [17,27–35], in this research we identify FUTURE
PROJECTION for the nanotechnological applications (application variables) and for the
context variable in Iran.
In this research FUTURE PROJECTION is defined for the application variables based on the
application of nanotechnology that is supposed to be inaugurated to the market until 2025 or
not. For context variable, FUTURE PROJECTION is defined as qualitative statements.
Besides, we have included influential ‗surprises‘ in form of a so-called ‗wild card‘ [36,37],
including aspects of discontinuity to a moderate extent [38]. and in our analysis, we consider
wildcards as influential surprise.
2.2.Morphology analysis
Morphological analysis is a method for rigorously structuring and investigating the internal
relationships of inherently non-quantifiable socio-technical problem complexes. The method
is carried out by developing a parameter space of the problem complex to be investigated
and defining relationships between its variables on the basis of internal consistency. Such an
internally linked space is called a morphological field. A linked morphological field can be
treated as an inference model.[25]
2.2.1.Basic morphological field
This method begins by determining and defining the complicated parameters or dimensions
of the subjected problem and assigning a group of values or states. Morphological ground or
zwicky box is constructed by placing the parameters against each other in an n-dimensional
configuration space (Table 6). Any configuration contains one value of each parameter,
which is considered later as a special case or a solution of a complicated problem. [39]
2.2.2. Building a Scenario - Strategy Laboratory
2 -future projection
4
Morphology analysis is especially proper
for models' strategies in scenarios or future markers.
In order to test different cases of future projection for strategies, CONTEXT VARIABLES-
APPLICATION VARIABLES morphology field and strategy can combine. Relating these
three grounds completely to each other causes combinational ground with too many
configurations and worse is the great consistency -set. Although we can work with this big
ground by abstract form of scenarios (possible combination of strategies and considering the
diversity criteria) in a way that emerge column of scenario name with future projection
ground, in which any scenario is a combination of possible strategies that has been used to
prevent from complexity of abstracted form of scenarios.(Table7 ). [25,39]
2.3. Selection of scenario
In order to select scenarios, analyzing consistency between column of scenario name and
future projection parameters may be done in two ways: Quick method and thorough method,
The thorough method is a quantitative method.[25] In quick method, every scenario is related
to every future projection parameter as a gestalt. Although the evaluating group points to
complete ground of scenario, but this is just for forming general figure of what every scenario
contains for every future projection mode. There is no direct evaluation between inner mode
of scenario and future projection parameters. The quick method is usually applied when there
is lack of time. Quick method in this paper is considered to select future projections based on
scenarios and considering the diversity criteria. In order to convergence between expert, we
considered the Delphi method in three stages with ten experts.
Of course we can use the thorough method of consistency analysis in order to validate the
research. The thorough method passes all relations between inner states of every scenario and
inner states of every strategy parameter and then evaluate them. This method needs more
time and is more difficult but is an interesting subject for discussion.
2.4. Interpretation of selected scenarios
The selected scenarios are explained based on future projection. The interpretation integrates
these scenario-specific indications about how the projections are interrelated and interact
respectively, including specific systemic features of the socio-technical system in total
business rationale, public institution, and public interest.The interpreted scenarios are
discussed in transdisciplinary communities.
In one workshop with the ten experts who closely accompanied the whole scenario study
(Table1);and composed of scientists and representatives of business, government,
administration and civil society interested in sustainable governance of nanotechnology in
Iran. These events led to an iterative elaboration and profiling of the scenarios.[40-42]
Table1
Experts in nanotechnology issues participated in the scenario study
Institutions
5
2.5. Designing Nano-Iran innovation portfolio
3. Primary results
3.1.Future projection
In this research we identify FUTURE PROJECTION for the nanotechnological applications
(application variables) and for the context variable in Iran.
3.1.1. Future projection of application variables
Future projection of application variables is simply determined based on whether group of
mentioned nanotechnology products until 2025 exist in market (projection 1) or not
(projection 2).
In order to know and classify domains of society which are affected by nano technology,
some studies in context of Iran [43,44] were done, in which we selected the following
classification with some modifications [45] that is shown in( table 2).
In 2010 an especial commission made policies and supported some industries related to
nano technology containing composites, polymers, tiles, ceramics, cars, building and road
construction [-46].But for 10 future years more general domains have been considered [44]
and these realms, that we considered, are very important in Iran .
Table2
Future projection of application variable
Future projection definition impact Application
variable
1. on the market
2. not on the market
Nano applications which improve agricultural outputs for
level, time or input.
Increase of
agricultural efficiency
AV1
1. on the market
2. not on the market
Nano technology applications which effectively clean polluted
weather, water or soil, or can be beneficial for constructions and eco-system processes.
Improvement of
environmental quality
AV2
1. on the market
2. not on the market
Nano technology applications improve chemical industry
efficiency, ratio of productive energy to input resources via improving production, supply and energy transformation.
Increase of
efficiency of energy systems and chemical industry
AV3
1. on the market Nano technology correct food properties in order to satisfy Enhancement of AV4
Supreme Council of Cultural Revolution
Center for Innovation and Technology Cooperation
Special Commission of Nanotechnology Development
Nanotechnology Corridor
Nanotechnology Lebarotaries Network
Technology Development Funds
Private Research Centers
Public Research Centers
Universities and Faculties
6
Future projection definition impact Application
variable
2. not on the market
consumer demands or increases food safety. nutritional quality
1. on the market 2. not on the market
Nano technology applications increase information processing speed, saving capacity and information transformation, or minimizes hardware tools.
Increase of efficiency of information
technology hardware
AV5
1. on the market
2. not on the market
Nano technology applications improve and simplify illness
diagnosis, treatment and healing, or increase efficiency of drug delivery and/or tolerance of implants, or improve the quality of the personal hygiene.
Improvement of the
quality of medical, pharmaceutical and cosmetic products
AV6
1. on the market 2. not on the market
Nano technology applications result in decrease of the costs of production process.
Decrease of production costs
AV7
1. on the market 2. not on the market
Nano technology applications which are able to provide new properties for textile.
Improvement of textile properties
AV8
3.1.2.Future projections of context variables
The future projections of the context variables for the reference year 2025 are compiled in
(Table3). The status quo situation is described in more detail in [8]
Table 3
Future projection of context variable
Future projection description title Context
variable
1. high 2. low
Global know-how and infrastructure for R&D of nanotechnology
Infrastructure for development
Cv1
1. Risk-averse
(focus on risk) 2. Neutral 3. Risk – tolerant
(focus on benefits)
Awareness of Iran's community of nanotechnology
consist of understanding, Risks realization, benefits and acceptation of them.
Public reaction Cv2
1. High for economically priced products
2. High for environmentally friendly product
3. High for nanotechnology – free product
Demands and selection of Iranian consumer's nanotechnologies contains habits, priorities and values.
Consumer‘s demand Cv3
1. Liberal regulation(none or few regulation)
2. Regulation for advance
material 3. Regulation for nano-food
and textiles
Regular framework for development and applying nanotechnology in Iran contains rules, decrease and self-regulation.
Regulation Cv4
1. High 2. low
Amount of public resources in Iran which assigns to development and research in nanotechnology domain.
Public investment Cv5
1. High 2. low
The business potential of nanotechnology, indicated by the worldwide private financial investments.
private investment Cv6
1. indicating high risk 2. indicating medium risk
The available results provided by independent risk assessments on nanotechnology
Risk assessment Cv7
7
Future projection description title Context
variable
3. indicating low risk
3.2. Morphology analysis
3.2.1. Basic morphological field
This method initializes with determining and defining parameters or dimension of the
considered complicated problem and also relating group of values or states. Morphological
field or zwicky Box is constructed by placing the parameters against each other in an n-
dimensional configuration space. Any configuration contains one value of each parameter,
which is considered later as a special case or a solution of a complex problem. In this paper,
parameters are application variables and context variables and spectrum of their values is
future projection. Therefore morphological field is constructed by placing the parameters and
future projections and zwicky Box (morphological field)is as following: (table 6)
3.2.2.Building a Scenario - Strategy Laboratory
Strategy and CONTEXT VARIABLES-APPLICATION VARIABLE morphological fields
can be attached to each other to test different states of FUTURE PROJECTION for the
strategies. But the complete attachment of these two grounds will lead to a combinational
ground with a complicated configuration. But we can approach this vast ground using a
summarized form of scenarios (possible combinations of strategies and considering the
diversity criteria). so that we will only combine the column of scenario title with the
FUTURE PROJECTION ground [25]. in which each scenario will be compromised of
possible combinations of the strategies [8] that have been summarized in order to prevent the
complexity. Thus the possible combinations of the strategies are as follow: (Table 4).
Table4
Possible combination of strategies
Thus the conceptual framework of the scenarios combination to morphological field is as
follow:(Table 5)
Table5
Scenario combination to morphological field
Strategies for
public interest
Strategies for
Public institution
Strategies for
Business rational
Strategies for
application
scenario
unworried unrestrictive full all Scenario 1
In favor supportive broad Most of them Scenario 3
ambivalent exclusive segment One major stream Scenario 2
concerned restrictive niche Few survivors Scenario 4
averse oppressive no none Scenario 5
8
CONTEXT VARIABLE APPLICATION VARIABLE SCENARIO
FUTURE PROJECTIONS OF
CONTEXT VARIABLES
FUTURE PROJECTIONS OF
APPLICATION VARIABLES
SCENARIO 1
SCENARIO 2
SCENARIO 3
SCENARIO 4
SCENARIO 5
9
Table 6
Application variables- context variables morphological field
Ris
k
ass
ess
men
t
Pu
bli
c
inv
est
men
t
Pu
bli
c
inv
est
men
t
reg
ula
tio
n
Co
nsu
mer
’s
dem
an
d
Pu
bli
c
rea
cti
on
Infr
ast
ru
ctu
re
for
dev
elo
pm
en
t
Imp
ro
vem
en
t
of
tex
tile
pro
perti
es
Decrea
se o
f
pro
du
cti
on
co
sts
Imp
ro
vem
en
t
of
the
qu
ali
ty
of
med
ica
l,
ph
arm
aceu
tic
al
an
d
co
smeti
c
pro
du
cts
Increa
se o
f
eff
icie
ncy
of
info
rm
ati
on
tech
no
log
y
ha
rd
wa
re
En
ha
ncem
en
t
of
nu
trit
ion
al
qu
ali
ty
Increa
se o
f
eff
icie
ncy
of
en
erg
y
syst
em
s
Imp
ro
vem
en
t
of
en
vir
on
men
tal
qu
ali
ty
Increa
se o
f
ag
ric
ult
ura
l
eff
icie
ncy
ind
icat
ing
hig
h r
isk
hig
h
hig
h
Lib
eral
reg
ula
tio
n(n
one o
r fe
w r
egula
tio
n)
Hig
h f
or
eco
no
mic
all
y
pri
ced
pro
ducts
Ris
k-a
vers
e (f
ocu
s on
ris
k)
hig
h
On
th
e m
ark
et O
n th
e m
ark
et O
n th
e m
ark
et O
n th
e m
ark
et O
n th
e m
ark
et
On
th
e m
ark
et O
n th
e m
ark
et
on
the m
arket
ind
icat
ing
med
ium
risk
low
lo
w
Regu
lati
on
fo
r
advance m
ate
rial
Hig
h f
or
env
iron
menta
lly
fr
ien
dly
pro
duct
Neutr
al
low
No
t o
n the m
arket
No
t o
n the m
arket
No
t o
n the m
arket
No
t o
n the m
arket
No
t o
n the m
arket
No
t o
n the m
arket
No
t o
n the m
arket
not
on
th
e m
ark
et
ind
icat
ing
lo
w r
isk
Regu
lati
on
fo
r n
ano
-
foo
d a
nd
tex
tile
s
Hig
h f
or
nan
ote
chn
olo
gy
– f
ree
pro
duct
Ris
k –
to
lera
nt
(fo
cus
on
ben
efi
ts)
10
3.3.Selection of scenario
For selection of scenario, There are two method to make the cross-consistency evaluation
between the scenario placeholder parameter and the strategy parameters – a quick method and
a thorough method. The quick method involves relating each scenario, as a gestalt, to each of
the future projection parameters and considering. The group making these assessments
should, of course, refer to the complete scenario field, but only in order to form a total picture
of what each scenario would imply for each state of each strategy. There is no direct
assessment between the internal states of a scenario and parameters. This quick method is
usually employed when there is limited time for group work.The thorough method goes full
out and assesses the relationships between the internal states of each (defined) scenario, and
the internal states of each of the parameters.(consistency matrix)
Quick method in this paper is considered to select future projections based on scenarios and
considering the diversity criteria. In order to convergence between expert, we considered the
Delphi method in three stages with ten experts.
When the scenario creates a framework that can be regarded as the nanotechnological
application in all realms and the business rational is full, and the public institutions are
unrestrictive and the public interest is unworried, then the scenario of the decisions and
strategies will be conducted in this framework in a way that the nanotechnology in Iran will
have a suitable flow. In such a case, in a workshop of experts (table 1), we have to consider
the future projection of each APPLICATION VARIABLES and CONTEXT VARIABLES
has to be selected appropriate to the mentioned scenario. In the table of scenario 1(Table 7),
the states of the flow of nanotechnology in the society are shown and the selection of
FUTURE PROJECTIONs are specified based on that scenario.(linked fields)
11
Table7. Linked fields for scenario 1
Ris
k
ass
ess
men
t
Pu
bli
c
po
ten
tia
l
Pu
bli
c
inv
est
men
t
Lo
ws
an
d
reg
ula
tio
n
Co
nsu
mer
’s
dem
an
d
Pu
bli
c
rea
cti
on
Infr
ast
ru
ctu
re f
or
dev
elo
pm
en
t
Imp
ro
vem
en
t o
f te
xti
le
pro
perti
es
Decrea
se o
f
pro
du
cti
on
co
sts
Imp
ro
vem
en
t o
f th
e
qu
ali
ty o
f
med
ica
l,
ph
arm
aceu
ti
ca
l a
nd
co
smeti
c
pro
du
cts
Increa
se o
f
eff
icie
ncy
of
info
rm
ati
on
tech
no
log
y
ha
rd
wa
re
En
ha
ncem
en
t o
f
nu
trit
ion
al
qu
ali
ty
Increa
se o
f
eff
icie
ncy
of
en
erg
y
syst
em
s Im
pro
vem
en
t o
f
en
vir
on
men
t
al
qu
ali
ty In
crea
se o
f
ag
ric
ult
ura
l
eff
icie
ncy
scen
ario
ind
icat
ing
hig
h r
isk
hig
h
hig
h
Lib
eral
reg
ula
tio
n(n
o
ne o
r fe
w
reg
ula
tio
n)
Hig
h f
or
eco
no
mic
all
y
pri
ced
p
roducts
Ris
k-a
vers
e (f
ocu
s on
ris
k)
hig
h
On
th
e m
ark
et O
n th
e m
ark
et O
n th
e m
ark
et O
n th
e m
ark
et O
n th
e m
ark
et O
n th
e m
ark
et O
n th
e m
ark
et
on
the m
arket
Scen
ario
1
ind
icat
ing
mediu
m r
isk
low
low
Regu
lati
on
for
advan
ce
mate
rial
Hig
h f
or
env
iron
ment
all
y f
riend
ly
pro
duct
Neutr
al
low
No
t o
n the
mark
et N
ot o
n the
mark
et N
ot o
n the
mark
et N
ot o
n the
mark
et N
ot o
n the
mark
et N
ot o
n the
mark
et N
ot o
n the
mark
et n
ot
on
th
e
mark
et S
cen
ario
2
ind
icat
ing
lo
w
risk
Regu
lati
on
fo
r
nan
o-f
ood
an
d
tex
tile
s
Hig
h f
or
nan
ote
chn
olo
gy
– f
ree p
rodu
ct
Ris
k –
to
lera
nt
(fo
cus
on
ben
efi
ts)
Scen
ario
3
Scen
ario
4
Scen
ario
5
12
3.4.interpretation of scenario1 (nano-flow)
In this section we will deal with the interpretation of scenario 1 (table8)
Table8
Interpretation of scenario
From the general systemic perspective, this scenario displays the same ideal -typical
constellation of mutually enforcing business rationale, public institutions, and public interest.
The specific interplay fosters a technological innovation and diffusion that is considered to be
beneficial in various respects.
The nanotechnology development is driven by a business rationale that receives positive
‗internal‘ incentives (positive risk assessments) and therefore seizes the development and
private investment, responding to favorable public institutions (in particular consumer‘s
demand), and is enabled by a public interest that is driven by a risk-tolerant public attitude.
(figure1)
Interpretation of scenario1
So
cio
-tech
nic
al
syst
em
Tech
nic
al
syst
em
Applications of nano technology
The first scenario (Table.7) displays a market situation where the widest range of nanotechnological applications is available for private and public usage – ranging from applications that improve agricultural output; through applications that improve the energy efficiency of resources and chemical industry due to advancements in production, storage and conduction of energy, photocatalytic reduction of CO2,
superconductors, etc.; to applications that enable new functions and properties of textiles such as odor resistant and wrinkle resistant tissues, and phase change material.
So
cio
sy
stem
The development and private investment
The development and private investment of nanotechnology is fully realized, driving the technological innovation and diffusion processes and still remaining on a high level. Basic and applied research as well as teaching activities have been greatly increased by the founding of private and public research centers as well as by the establishment of
new master programs at various universities.
Risk assessment Risk indications of nanotechnological applications have been supported
only to a small extent in long-term risk assessments.
Public investment public funding has continually increased and is still ranging at a high
level,
Laws and regulation laws and regulations do barely restrict the development of nanotechnology, and consumers appreciate the multifaceted benefits
and price reductions due to nanotechnological innovations that accommodate their consumption attitudes. The Iranian nanotechnology industry significantly contributes to the overall national economy.
Consumer ‗s demand Consumer‘s demand is high for economically priced product.
13
Table9. Linked fields for scenario 2
Ris
k
ass
ess
men
t
Pro
fit
po
ten
tia
l
Pu
bli
c
inv
est
men
t
Lo
ws
an
d
reg
ula
tio
n
Co
nsu
mer
’s
dem
an
d
Pu
bli
c
rea
cti
on
Infr
ast
ru
ctu
re f
or
dev
elo
pm
en
t
Imp
ro
vem
en
t o
f te
xti
le
pro
perti
es
Decrea
se o
f
pro
du
cti
on
co
sts
Imp
ro
vem
en
t o
f th
e
qu
ali
ty o
f
med
ica
l,
ph
arm
aceu
ti
ca
l a
nd
co
smeti
c
pro
du
cts
Increa
se o
f
eff
icie
ncy
of
info
rm
ati
on
tech
no
log
y
ha
rd
wa
re
En
ha
ncem
en
t o
f
nu
trit
ion
al
qu
ali
ty
Increa
se o
f
eff
icie
ncy
of
en
erg
y
syst
em
s Im
pro
vem
en
t o
f
en
vir
on
men
t
al
qu
ali
ty In
crea
se o
f
ag
ric
ult
ura
l
eff
icie
ncy
scen
ario
ind
icat
ing
hig
h r
isk
hig
h
hig
h
Lib
eral
reg
ula
tio
n(n
o
ne o
r fe
w
reg
ula
tio
n)
Hig
h f
or
eco
no
mic
all
y
pri
ced
p
roducts
Ris
k-a
vers
e (f
ocu
s on
ris
k)
hig
h
On
th
e m
ark
et O
n th
e m
ark
et O
n th
e m
ark
et O
n th
e m
ark
et O
n th
e m
ark
et O
n th
e m
ark
et O
n th
e m
ark
et
on
the m
arket
Scen
ario
1
ind
icat
ing
mediu
m
risk
low
low
Regu
lati
on
for
advance
mate
rial
Hig
h f
or
env
iron
me
nta
lly
fr
ien
dly
pro
duct
Neutr
al
low
No
t o
n the
mark
et N
ot o
n the
mark
et N
ot o
n the
mark
et N
ot o
n the
mark
et N
ot o
n the
mark
et N
ot o
n the
mark
et N
ot o
n the
mark
et n
ot
on
th
e
mark
et S
cen
ario
2
No
nano
con
tact
ind
icat
ing
low
ris
k
Regu
lati
on
for
nano
-
foo
d a
nd
te
xti
les
Hig
h f
or
nan
ote
chn
olo
gy
–
free
pro
duct
Ris
k –
to
lera
nt
(fo
cus
on
ben
efi
ts)
Scen
ario
3
Scen
ario
4
Scen
ario
5
14
Table10. Interpretation of scenario2
Interpretation of scenario2
So
cio
-tech
nic
al
syst
em
Tech
nic
al
syst
em
Applications of nano technology
The third scenario (Table 9) displays a market situation where nanotechnological applications are used in various products and services, including for instance applications increasing efficiency of energy systems, increasing environmental quality and decreasing production costs. However, a specific segment of nanotechnological applications is not available on the market, namely applications that
would be in closest contact with consumers, i.e. in food, cosmetics, clothes. Interesting enough, applications that get indirectly though substantially in contact with consumers, such as medical or agricultural nanotechnological applications, are indeed on the market.
So
cio
sy
stem
The infrastructure for development
. The high infrastructure for development is supported by high public R&D funding.
Private investment The evolution of a decisive public opinion (social amplification of risk) is connected to a rather defensive attitude of industry . Confronted with media reports and public concerns calling for openly dealing with opportunities and risks of nanotechnological applications (and related uncertainties), companies have rather been hesitant or
reluctant to enter the public debate. Conversely, industry is currently operating under the assumption of a moderately low profit development, suspecting that consumers might even extend their apprehensions.
Risk assessment regardless of the fact that risk indications of nanotechnological applications have only been supported to a small extent in long-term risk assessments (even though some assessments indeed confirmed critical impacts of contact applications on human health)
Public investment public funding has continually increased and is still ranging at a high level,
Laws and regulation The development is partly buffered by laws and regulations that restrict nanotechnological development to‗non-contact‘ applications in Iran.
Consumer ‗s demand The economically driven consumer behavior that seeks to gain benefits from ‗uncontroversial‘ nanotechnologicalapplications
Public reaction This slightly constricted diffusion of nanotechnological applications
has been driven by the Iranian public who is to a certain degree concerned about risks for human health even though not generally risk-averse. An influential factor for this situation is the occasional occurrence of accidents and crimes traced back to intended or unintended misuse of nanotechnological applications. However, the public is mainly concerned about the safety of primary and everyday
contacts,i.e. via food, cosmetics, and clothes.
15
Table11. Linked fields for scenario 3
Ris
k
ass
ess
men
t
Pro
fit
po
ten
tia
l
Pu
bli
c
inv
est
men
t
Lo
ws
an
d
reg
ula
tio
n
Co
nsu
mer
’s
dem
an
d
Pu
bli
c
rea
cti
on
Infr
ast
ru
ctu
re f
or
dev
elo
pm
en
t
Imp
ro
vem
en
t o
f te
xti
le
pro
perti
es
Decrea
se o
f
pro
du
cti
on
co
sts
Imp
ro
vem
en
t o
f th
e
qu
ali
ty o
f
med
ica
l,
ph
arm
aceu
ti
ca
l a
nd
co
smeti
c
pro
du
cts
Increa
se o
f
eff
icie
ncy
of
info
rm
ati
on
tech
no
log
y
ha
rd
wa
re
En
ha
ncem
en
t o
f
nu
trit
ion
al
qu
ali
ty
Increa
se o
f
eff
icie
ncy
of
en
erg
y
syst
em
s Im
pro
vem
en
t o
f
en
vir
on
men
t
al
qu
ali
ty In
crea
se o
f
ag
ric
ult
ura
l
eff
icie
ncy
scen
ario
ind
icat
ing
hig
h r
isk
hig
h
hig
h
Lib
eral
reg
ula
tio
n(n
o
ne o
r fe
w
reg
ula
tio
n)
Hig
h f
or
eco
no
mic
all
y
pri
ced
p
roducts
Ris
k-a
vers
e (f
ocu
s on
ris
k)
hig
h
On
th
e m
ark
et O
n th
e m
ark
et O
n th
e m
ark
et O
n th
e m
ark
et O
n th
e m
ark
et O
n th
e m
ark
et O
n th
e m
ark
et
on
the m
arket
Scen
ario
1
ind
icat
ing
mediu
m r
isk
low
low
Regu
lati
on
fo
r
advance
mate
rial
Hig
h f
or
env
iron
menta
lly
frie
ndly
pro
duct
Neutr
al
low
No
t o
n the
mark
et N
ot o
n the
mark
et
No
t o
n the
mark
et N
ot o
n the
mark
et N
ot o
n the
mark
et N
ot o
n the
mark
et N
ot o
n the
mark
et not
on
th
e
mark
et
Scen
ario
2
ind
icat
ing
lo
w
risk
Regu
lati
on
fo
r
nan
o-f
ood
an
d
tex
tile
s
Hig
h f
or
nan
ote
chn
olo
gy
– f
ree p
rodu
ct
Ris
k –
to
lera
nt
(fo
cus
on
ben
efi
ts)
Scen
ario
3 H
idd
en n
ano
Scen
ario
4
Scen
ario
5
16
Table10. Interpretation of scenario3
Interpretation of scenario3
So
cio
-tech
nic
al
syst
em
Tech
nic
al
syst
em
Applications of nano technology
The fourth scenario (Table11 ) displays a market situation where nanotechnological applications are only used in products and services that are barely visible for consumers. These ‗background‘ applications
are restricted to industrial usage under controlled conditions and comprise nanotechnological applications increasing efficiency of energy systems and efficiency of information technology hardware, as well as those decreasing production costs.
So
cio
sy
stem
The infrastructure for development
Both the public and industry have actively participated in the governance and political decision processes on nanotechnology development in Iran. Due to the significant mediating constraints, development has decreased to a low level
Private investment Private investment of the nanotechnology industry have decreased to a low level. The remaining industrial branches applying nanotechnology operate in a niche market including few mainstream applications with a secured life cycle.
Risk assessment Two main drivers for this market situation are likewise critical risk assessments of nanotechnological applications and a risk-averse public reaction. Long-term risk assessments have confirmed adverse impacts
of nanotechnological applications on human health and the environment.
Public investment These results have been taken up and have led to restrictive regulations
as well as to a conservative public funding policy for selected applications under controlled conditions.
Laws and regulation These results have been taken up and have led to restrictive regulations
especially abut advance material and nanotube.
Consumer ‗s demand Corresponding to a risk-averse public attitude, consumer demand is inversely focused on nanotechnology-free products and services
Public reaction Two main drivers for this market situation are likewise critical risk assessments of nanotechnological applications and a risk-averse public reaction.
17
Table13. Linked fields for scenario 4
Ris
k
ass
ess
men
t
Pro
fit
po
ten
tia
l
Pu
bli
c
inv
est
men
t
Lo
ws
an
d
reg
ula
tio
n
Co
nsu
mer
’s
dem
an
d
Pu
bli
c
rea
cti
on
Infr
ast
ru
ctu
re f
or
dev
elo
pm
en
t
Imp
ro
vem
en
t o
f te
xti
le
pro
perti
es
Decrea
se o
f
pro
du
cti
on
co
sts
Imp
ro
vem
en
t o
f th
e
qu
ali
ty o
f
med
ica
l,
ph
arm
aceu
ti
ca
l a
nd
co
smeti
c
pro
du
cts
Increa
se o
f
eff
icie
ncy
of
info
rm
ati
on
tech
no
log
y
ha
rd
wa
re
En
ha
ncem
en
t o
f
nu
trit
ion
al
qu
ali
ty
Increa
se o
f
eff
icie
ncy
of
en
erg
y
syst
em
s Im
pro
vem
en
t o
f
en
vir
on
men
t
al
qu
ali
ty In
crea
se o
f
ag
ric
ult
ura
l
eff
icie
ncy
scen
ario
ind
icat
ing
hig
h r
isk
hig
h
hig
h
Lib
eral
reg
ula
tio
n(n
o
ne o
r fe
w
reg
ula
tio
n)
Hig
h f
or
eco
no
mic
all
y
pri
ced
p
roducts
Ris
k-a
vers
e (f
ocu
s on
ris
k)
hig
h
On
th
e m
ark
et O
n th
e m
ark
et O
n th
e m
ark
et O
n th
e m
ark
et O
n th
e m
ark
et O
n th
e m
ark
et O
n th
e m
ark
et
on
the m
arket
Scen
ario
1
ind
icat
ing
mediu
m r
isk
low
low
Regu
lati
on
for
advan
ce
mate
rial
Hig
h f
or
env
iron
menta
lly
fri
endly
p
roduct
Neutr
al
low
No
t o
n the
mark
et N
ot o
n the
mark
et N
ot o
n the
mark
et N
ot o
n the
mark
et N
ot o
n the
mark
et N
ot o
n the
mark
et N
ot o
n the
mark
et not
on
th
e
mark
et
Scen
ario
2
Red
nan
o
ind
icat
ing
low
ris
k
Regu
lati
on
for
nano
-fo
od
and
texti
les
Hig
h f
or
nan
ote
chn
olo
gy
– f
ree
pro
duct
Ris
k –
to
lera
nt
(fo
cus
on
ben
efi
ts)
Scen
ario
3 H
idd
en n
ano
Scen
ario
4
Scen
ari
o 5
18
Table14. Interpretation of scenario4
Interpretation of scenario4
So
cio
-tech
nic
al
syst
em
Tech
nic
al
syst
em
Applications of nano technology
The fourth scenario (Table 13) displays a market situation where nanotechnological applications are only used in products and services that constitute a high benefit for consumers and society. These applications include nanotechnological applications improving the quality of medical and pharmaceutical products responding to
constantly high demand for health care,increasing efficiency of energy systems responding to recent shortages of energy supply, as well as increasing efficiency of information technology hardware responding to continuously raised national security issues.
So
cio
sy
stem
The infrastructure for development
The high infrastructure for development is supported by high public R&D funding.
Private investment However, nanotechnology industry has failed to build up trust in a broader range of applications [cf. 63]. This would have required actively participating in the governance and political decision processes on nanotechnology development in Iran from an early stage on (2000–2010). The private investment, however, is moderately high
though slightly cut back as industry suffers from consumer‘s apprehensions over a broad range of nanotechnological applications.
Risk assessment Public opinion and consumer demand are decisive in this point,
regardless of the fact that risk indications of nanotechnological applications have only been supported to a small extent in long-term risk assessments (even though some assessments indeed confirmed critical impacts of contact applications on the environment and on human health),
Public investment According to the high public interest in high-benefit nanotechnological applications, public investments as well as the development.
Laws and regulation Regulation of nanotechnology in Iran remains liberal
Consumer ‗s demand The public reaction corresponds to a critical consumer‘s demand
focusing on environmentally friendly and healthy products without nanotechnological manipulation
Public reaction Accordingly, the main driver of this development is an ambivalent
public attitude to risk, focusing on the benefits when perceiving high benefits, while emphasizing the risks when perceiving low benefits of certain nanotechnological applications.
19
Table13. Linked fields for scenario 5
Ris
k
ass
ess
men
t
Pro
fit
po
ten
tia
l
Pu
bli
c
inv
est
men
t
Lo
ws
an
d
reg
ula
tio
n
Co
nsu
mer
’s
dem
an
d
Pu
bli
c
rea
cti
on
Infr
ast
ru
ctu
re f
or
dev
elo
pm
en
t
Imp
ro
vem
en
t o
f te
xti
le
pro
perti
es
Decrea
se o
f
pro
du
cti
on
co
sts
Imp
ro
vem
en
t o
f th
e
qu
ali
ty o
f
med
ica
l,
ph
arm
aceu
ti
ca
l a
nd
co
smeti
c
pro
du
cts
Increa
se o
f
eff
icie
ncy
of
info
rm
ati
on
tech
no
log
y
ha
rd
wa
re
En
ha
ncem
en
t o
f
nu
trit
ion
al
qu
ali
ty
Increa
se o
f
eff
icie
ncy
of
en
erg
y
syst
em
s Im
pro
vem
en
t o
f
en
vir
on
men
t
al
qu
ali
ty In
crea
se o
f
ag
ric
ult
ura
l
eff
icie
ncy
scen
ario
ind
icat
ing
hig
h r
isk
hig
h
hig
h
Lib
eral
reg
ula
tio
n(n
o
ne o
r fe
w
reg
ula
tio
n)
Hig
h f
or
eco
no
mic
all
y
pri
ced
p
roducts
Ris
k-a
vers
e (f
ocu
s on
ris
k)
hig
h
On
th
e m
ark
et O
n th
e m
ark
et O
n th
e m
ark
et O
n th
e m
ark
et O
n th
e m
ark
et O
n th
e m
ark
et O
n th
e m
ark
et
on
the m
arket
Scen
ario
1
ind
icat
ing
mediu
m r
isk
low
low
Regu
lati
on
fo
r
advance
mate
rial
Hig
h f
or
env
iron
menta
lly
frie
ndly
pro
duct
Neutr
al
low
No
t o
n the
mark
et N
ot o
n the
mark
et N
ot o
n the
mark
et N
ot o
n the
mark
et N
ot o
n the
mark
et N
ot o
n the
mark
et N
ot o
n the
mark
et not
on
th
e
mark
et
Scen
ario
2 N
ano
Bust
ind
icat
ing
lo
w
risk
Regu
lati
on
fo
r
nan
o-f
ood
an
d
tex
tile
s
Hig
h f
or
nan
ote
chn
olo
gy
– f
ree p
rodu
ct
Ris
k –
to
lera
nt
(fo
cus
on
ben
efi
ts)
Scen
ario
3 H
idd
en n
ano
Scen
ario
4
Scen
ario
5
20
Table15. Interpretation of scenario4
Interpretation of scenario5
So
cio
-tech
nic
al
syst
em
Tech
nic
al
syst
em
Applications of nano technology
The fifth scenario (Table 13) displays a market situation with no nanotechnological applications available for purposes other than nanotoxicological research.
So
cio
sy
stem
The infrastructure for development
Side effects have mainly been caused by emissions due to normal usage of various nanotechnological applications, but they have also been enforced by severe accidents and crimes traced back to intended
or unintended misuse of nanotechnological applications. Against this unfavorable background, infrastructure for developments of thenanotechnology industry have significantly dropped
Private investment unfavorable background, private investments of the nanotechnology industry have significantly dropped
Risk assessment Long-term risk assessments have proven toxic effects of diverse
nanotechnological applications for humans as well as persistence, accumulation and toxicity of nanotechnological particles in the environment.
Public investment The scientific findings and the public opinion have been reflected in a ‗‗no-nano‘‘ funding policy .
Laws and regulation The scientific findings and the public opinion have been reflected in a
‗‗no-nano‘‘ funding policy as well as restrictive laws and regulations that finally led to a general moratorium banning almost all nanotechnological applications from private or public use in Iran.
Consumer ‗s demand Consumer‘s demand is very low.
Public reaction The media have largely reported on the critical findings of risk research, the accidents and crimes as well as their adverse impacts.
21
3.5. Designing portfolio of innovation
In this research, in order to design the portfolio of the innovation we will first identify and
classify the branches of nanotechnology based on their distinguishable effects, e.g.
Nanotechnology Tree [47] ,or the 13-fold classification by Ghazinoori[48] But here we have
chosen a 3-fold classification by Kumiko [49] that includes:
1. Advanced material realms
2. Biotechnology & pharmacy realm
3. Electronics & IT realm
Then we attempted to identify and classify the realms that were affected by the nano-
innovations. As mentioned in section 3.1.1, the application variables of these realms included
8 variables.[44]
Finally, we will deal with the innovative applications of the nanotechnological branches in
each of these realms and a complete table will be presented for them. Besides, an appropriate
portfolio will be offered for each scenario. (Table 9)
Table 9
Conceptual framework for innovation portfolio
On the other hand, we will pay attention to the opinions of the stakeholders in studying to
selection desirable scenario [42] and we organize the possible scenarios into expected
scenario, worst scenario, desirable scenario, a very different future scenario and category in
SRI MATRIX. then the appropriate innovative portfolio will be presented for desirable
scenario and another ones.
4 . conclusion
22
The scenario study presents(after be built scenarios ) innovation pictures of nanotechnology
future in Iran for the year 2025. These collective mental ‗maps‘ based on literature and expert
input( by morphology analysis). The often used justification by ‗intractable complexity‘ of
socio-technical systems is here only of secondary importance. The main argument is that we
intend to support governance efforts with this study that include understanding, learning,
exploring and thereby throughout presupposing a considerable degree of choice. From this
perspective, it is more important to explore possibilities than to reveal probabilities. [42]
we consider this anticipatory contribution to governance on the basis of multiple scenarios as
a collaborative starting point for stakeholders from business, government, administration and
civil society. This effort needs to be backed up by mutual understanding of perspectives and
preferences within the ‗nano-discourse‘ [50,51], improved ‗upstream‘ engagement practices
in order to sustain the governance process.
In the core of the scenarios, we defined market situations for a variety of nanotechnological
applications. Clearly, the approach taken is not specific enough to cover the particularities of
all nanotechnological applications that might enter the market within the next 10 years. We
anchor our study in a broad spectrum of nanotechnological applications from a socio-
technical perspective.
The presented scenarios were constructed for the mid-term time horizon of about 10 years
.As aresult, from the transdisciplinary goal formation for the study, this implied a restriction
of future projections to relatively conservative nanotechnological implications [27,32] as well
as relatively moderate societal changes[52]. Long-term oriented scenario studies (beyond 25
years) would have to consider even more innovative(‗evolutionary‘ and ‗radical‘)
nanotechnological applications and substantial changes in related societal issues [53].
We have interpreted the different constellations of variables along three general ‗chains of
impact‘, i.e. business rationale, public institutions and public interest. Comparing and
ordering the scenarios along these chains of impacts, they could be reinterpreted as different
stages in the evolvement of a controversial technology [41]. From this perspective, the
scenario spectrum would outline a development from an initial state at which an unworried
public and corresponding unrestrictive public institutions allow the full realization of the
business potential for all nanotechnological applications, toward a final stage in which a risk-
averse public sets the stage for highly restrictive public institutions that make nanotechnology
business impossible and ban all nanotechnological applications from the market. Studying
nanotechnology development from this dynamic perspective allows for becoming aware of
trajectories among the scenarios and for anticipating shifts in the course of the development.
We would counter that our study is explicitly focused on future states as a basis for follow-up
analyses addressing the issue of development paths. These studies would need to deal with
concepts of continuity and discontinuity as well as strategy patterns based on methodologies
such as roadmapping and backcasting [26,54].
23
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