Majumdar Presentation

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Science & Engineering for a Sustainable

Energy Future

Arun Majumdar

Google

VIRGINIA SUMMIT ON SCIENCE, ENGINEERING & MEDICINE

November 15, 2013


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Google Confidential and Proprietary

Step 2: Green ourconsumption by usingrenewable energy

Step 3: Offsetwhat we cannoteliminate

Step 1: Reduce

energy consumptionthrough efficiency

100% CARBONNEUTRALITY:3-STEPPROCESS FOR GETTING THERE


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300 Horsepower

100,000 Horsepower

10,000 Horsepower

Industrial Revolution: Horse Power to Horsepower


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Global per Capita GDP

1750s: 0.7B

2013: 7.0B

2050: 9.0B

2100: 10.0B


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Oil & Gas ReservesGlobal Oil Reserves

BP Statistical Review of World Energy (2012)

Global Gas Reserves w/o US Shale


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0

20

40

60

80

100

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

$300B/yr

US Total Oil

Consumption

Thousandsof

Barrelsperday

ImportedOilP

ercentage

US Imports

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Nominal

Real

Price($/barrel)

Global Oil Price & Economic Unpredictability

US Balance of Payments


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Averages & Extremes

Hansen, Sato, Ruedy, Perception of climate change, PNAS, Aug. 6 (2012)


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Cumulative CO2emissions since Industrial Revolution

About 1 Trillion Tons

How much more CO2can we emit based on known

fossil fuel reserves?About 3 Trillion Tons

75-100 yearsWorth $10s of Trillion!!


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The Stone Age did not end because we ran out stones

Sheikh Ahmed Yamani, former Oil Minister of Saudi Arabia

We transitioned to better solutions


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Time

Cost

Performance

existing technology

Enhance U.S. economic,

energy & environmental

security

Ensure U.S. leadin advancedenergy technologies

Technologies that lead tofundamentally new learning curves

Steam-powered

Cugnot (1769)

Benz Motorwagen

(1885)

Ford Model T

(1914)

DISRUPTIVE

TRANSFORMATIONAL

Multiple

shots atgoal


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Energy Systems

US Department of Energy. Report on the First Quadrennial Technology Review. (US DOE, 2011).


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Courtesy: Mark Zoback, Stanford

10-100 nm pores

Shale Gas Extraction

Coupled Chemistry, Transport, Mechanics


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Levelized Cost of Electricity Generation

4-10

NGCC

Source: Sustainable Energy in America 2013 Factbook, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Jan (2013)

8-14

Coal

8-14

Nuclear

8-15

Geothermal

Sunshot

2020

12-18

5-12

Wind

Distributed & Modular 5 cents/kWh


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Courtesy: E. J. Moniz (DOE)


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Advanced Research Projects Agency Energy

Rare Earth Free Hard Magnetic Materials for Generators &Motors

16

Fe16N2

Holy Grail of MagnetsBHmax= 134 MGOe


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Fully Installed Residential PV ($/W)

Fully Installed Utility PV ($/W)

Courtesy: E. J. Moniz (DOE)


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Single Junction Theoretical Limit

III-V Based 28.8%

efficient solar cells on

plastic substrate

Alta Devices

Solar Cell Efficiency


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Grid-Scale Storage (GWh Scale)

$100/kWh

$10/kWh

$1000/kWh

First Cost

Others

90Ah 12V battery

Zn-MnO2Battery Highlights

Demonstrated cycles: 2,500 Projected cycles: 5,000

Prototype cost: $300/kWh

Cost at scale:


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G G G

Grid

L L L L L L L L

Distributed Load

One-wayflow

Tesla Edison

$100B/yr lost in

power outages


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Cyber-Physical Security

Boston Marathon Bombing

April 15, 2013

120 shots fired at the radiators of only

energized transformers

>50,000 gallons of cooling oil leaked Fiber optic & telephone cables cut 15

mins before the shootings911 disabled

2am, April 16, 2013

PG&E Metcalf600kV Substation


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T h E i C


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PV

Diesel

Grid

Electricity cost $/kWh delivered, utility-scale,based on India

Li-ion storage cost ($/kWh delivered)200-400 Wh/kg (cell); 100-200 Wh/kg (pack)

Lead acid (40Wh/kg)

0.20-0.40

0.07-0.20

0.47

SSA

LatAm

China

India

Developed world

Mobile penetration Subscriptions per capita

Wide Bandgap Semiconductor (SiC,GaN) Power Electronics300x size reduction in 25W AC-DC

SSL Driver

Techno-Economic Convergence

Networked Distributed

Secure Computing


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Transportation

58.8 Light Duty

Vehicles

Buses

Trucks22.2

Air

7.8

WaterRail Pipeline

5

FuelGasoline/DieselNatural Gas

Biofuel

Electricity

Power TrainIC Engine

Batteries/Electric Motor

Fuel Cells

Hybrids

Light Weighting


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26Courtesy: E. J. Moniz (DOE)


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27

40 400 4000

Pb-acid

NiMH

Li-ion

Zn-air

Mg-ion

Adv Li-ion

Li-S

Li-air

Practical energy density (Wh/kg)

27

Today

$500/kWh

BEEST

ARPA-E

$250/kWh

21040 400 4000

Pb-acid

NiMH

Li-ion

Zn-air

Mg-ion

Adv Li-ion

Li-S

Li-air

Practical energy density (Wh/kg)

Vehicle ElectrificationElectric Vehicles Comparable in Range and Cost
http://www.pelliontech.com/index.htm


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Algae CelluloseCornSugarcane

Photosynthetic

Biofuels

(Calvin-Benson Cycle)

Less than

1% efficient


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Plants Engineered to Replace Oil

(PETRO)

80 GJ/ha-yr

Today

160 GJ/ha-yr @ $50/BOEFuture

?

Algae

Tobacco

LBL & UC Berkeley

f


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Electrofuels

Non-photosynthetic

Microbes

OPX Biotechnology & North

Carolina State University

Sour

Crude

Electricity

H2

Reducing

Equivalent

>10X more

efficient than

photosynthesis


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Sustainable

EnergyFuture

(I )F P di i f h P


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(In)Famous Predictions from the Past

The Americans have need of the telephone, but

we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys.

Sir William Preece, Chief Engineer, British Post

Office, 1878.

(I )F P di ti f th P t


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Radio has no future

X-rays will prove to be a hoax.

Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible

Lord Kelvin in 1890s

(I )F P di ti f th P t


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Man will not fly for 50 years.

Wilbur Wright in 1901


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Any sufficiently advanced technology is

indistinguishable from magic.

Arthur C. Clarke


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Thank you!

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