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GUIDED BY: PROF. MRS. ARCHANA CHOUDHARY
A panoramic view of Ravishankar Sagar Reservoir, Chhattisgarh
june july august septmbr october november december-1200
-1000
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-200
0
200
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800
Months
Inflo
w in
Mm
3
FORECASTED CURVE FOR YEAR 1946
y = 94*z5 - 1.7e+002*z4 - 1.6e+002*z3 + 3.9e+002*z2 - 1.2e+002*z - 25where z = (x - 6.5)/3.6
Inflow (1,1:12) Best fitted curve
JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTM OCTBR NOVMB DECMB-500
0
500
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3500
Months
Inflo
w in
Mm
3
FORECASTED CURVE FOR YEAR 1947
y = - 3.7e+002*z7 + 1.1e+002*z6 + 1.6e+003*z5 - 5.5e+002*z4 - 1.8e+003*z3 + 7.2e+002*z2 + 3.3e+002*z - 64where z = (x - 6.5)/3.6
INFLOW(1,1:12)BEST FITTED CURVE
june july august septmbr octobr novmbr decmbr-100
0
100
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300
400
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Months
Inflo
w in
Mm
3
FORECASTED CURVE FOR YEAR 1948
y = - 1.8e+002*z7 - 2.1*z6 + 8.6e+002*z5 - 1.7e+002*z4 - 1.1e+003*z3 + 4.4e+002*z2 + 1.7e+002*z - 33where z = (x - 6.5)/3.6
Inflow(1,1:12)Best fitted curve
june july august september october november december-100
0
100
200
300
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500
Months
Inflo
w in
Mm
3
FORECASTED CURVE FOR YEAR 1949
y = - 1.9*z7 + 93*z6 - 35*z5 - 3.9e+002*z4 + 2.1e+002*z3 + 4e+002*z2 - 2.9e+002*z + 24where z = (x - 6.5)/3.6
Inflow (1,1:12) Best fitted curve
june july august septmbr octobr novem decmbr-1400
-1200
-1000
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-200
0
200
400
600
Months
Inflo
w in
Mm
3
FORECASTED CURVE FOR YEAR 1950
y = - 27*z7 - 69*z6 + 2.5e+002*z5 + 97*z4 - 4.7e+002*z3 + 1.6e+002*z2 + 62*z - 13where z = (x - 6.5)/3.6
Inflow (1,1:12)Best fitted curve
june july august septmbr octobr novmbr decmbr-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Months
Inflo
w in
Mm
3
FORECASTED CURVE FOR YEAR 1951
y = 3.5e+002*z10 + 68*z9 - 2e+003*z8 - 1.5e+002*z7 + 3.9e+003*z6 - 82*z5 - 3e+003*z4 + 1.9e+002*z3 + 8.9e+002*z2 - 1.6e+002*z - 16where z = (x - 6.5)/3.6
inflow(1,1:12)Best fitted curve
JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTMBR OCTOBR NOVEMBR DECMBR-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
Months
Inflo
w in
Mm
3
FORECASTED CURVE FOR 1952
y = - 2e+002*z4 + 1.6e+002*z3 + 4.8e+002*z2 - 4e+002*z + 8.5where z = (x - 6.5)/3.6
Inflow(1,1:12)Best fitted curve
june july august septmbr octobr novem decmbr-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Months
Inflo
w in
Mm
3
FORECASTED CURVE FOR YEAR 1953
y = - 4.2e+002*z7 + 1.3e+002*z6 + 1.8e+003*z5 - 6.6e+002*z4 - 2e+003*z3 + 8.7e+002*z2 + 3.2e+002*z - 61where z = (x - 6.5)/3.6
Inflow(1,1:12)Best fitted curve
0 2 4 6 8 10 12-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
Months
Inflo
w in
Mm
3
FORECASTED CURVE FOR YEAR 1954
y = - 22*z5 - 1.4e+002*z4 + 2e+002*z3 + 2.9e+002*z2 - 3.5e+002*z + 28where z = (x - 6.5)/3.6
Inflow (1,1:12) Best fitted curve
june july august septembr october november decmbr-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Months
Inflo
w in
Mm
3
FORECASTED CURVE FOR YEAR 1955
y = - 19*z5 - 1.3e+002*z4 + 2e+002*z3 + 2.9e+002*z2 - 3.8e+002*z + 56where z = (x - 6.5)/3.6
Inflow(1,1:12) Best fitted curve
1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996100
200
300
400
500
600
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800
Year
inflo
w in
Mm
3
Comparison Between Actual inflow and Forecasted inflow for the month of July
Actual InflowForecasted Inflow
1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000Comparison between actual inflow and forecasted inflow for the month of August
Year
Inflo
w in
mm
3
Actual inflowForecasted Inflow
1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 19960
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900Comparison between actual inflow and forecasted inflow for the month of September
Year
inflo
w in
mm
3
Actual inflowForecasted inflow
1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 19960
50
100
150
200
250
300
350Comparison between actual inflow and forecasted inflow for month ofoctober
Year
inflo
w in
Mm
3
Actual inflowForecasted inflow
1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800forecasting using radial basis for the month of july
year
Inflo
w in
Mm
3
actual inflowforecasted inflow
1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000forecasting using radial basis function for the month of august
years
inflo
w in
Mm
3
actual inflowforecasted inflow
1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 19960
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900forecasting using radial basis for the month of september
year
inflo
w in
Mm
3
actual inflowforecasted inflow
1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 19960
50
100
150
200
250
300
350forecasting using radial basis for the month of october
year
inflo
w in
Mm
3
actual inflowforecasted inflow
1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Year
Inflo
w in
Mm
3
Forecasting curve for June
y = - 18*z10 + 11*z9 + 1.3e+002*z8 - 70*z7 - 3.2e+002*z6 + 1.4e+002*z5 + 3.2e+002*z4 - 1e+002*z3 - 1e+002*z2 + 15*z + 39where z = (x - 26)/15
Inflow(1:50,1)Best fitted curve
1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Year
Inflo
w in
Mm
3
Forecasted curve for July
y = - 18*z10 + 11*z9 + 1.3e+002*z8 - 70*z7 - 3.2e+002*z6 + 1.4e+002*z5 + 3.2e+002*z4 - 1e+002*z3 - 1e+002*z2 + 15*z + 39where z = (x - 26)/15
Inflow(1:50,1)Best Fitted Curve
1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Year
Inflo
w in
mm
3
Forecasted curve for August
y = - 4.4*z10 + 4.2*z9 - 38*z8 - 99*z7 + 3.9e+002*z6 + 3.5e+002*z5 - 9.3e+002*z4 - 3.4e+002*z3 + 6.8e+002*z2 + 24*z + 3.3e+002where z = (x - 26)/15
InflowBest fitted curve
1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 19960
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Year
Inflo
w in
Mm
3
Forecasted curve for September
y = 45*z10 - 14*z9 - 3.4e+002*z8 + 53*z7 + 9.5e+002*z6 + 19*z5 - 1.3e+003*z4 - 1.8e+002*z3 + 7.9e+002*z2 + 56*z + 1.3e+002where z = (x - 26)/15
InflowBest Fitted curve
1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
Year
Inflo
w in
Mm
3
Forecasting curve for October
y = - 23*z10 + 88*z9 + 1.9e+002*z8 - 5.4e+002*z7 - 5.7e+002*z6 + 1.1e+003*z5 + 7.1e+002*z4 - 7.2e+002*z3 - 3e+002*z2 + 92*z + 1.1e+002where z = (x - 26)/15
InflowBest Fitted curve
Looking precisely to the above discussion we can conclude that the water is an important natural resource inflow in the being the accumulation of water into the reservoir and an important part of hydrologic cycle should be considered by any irrigation project and its of prime important which should be done accurately .
The various techniques involved in the estimations of inflow suggested that the ANN is the best mostly amongst all the others for calculating inflow .
This concept has already been used for the rain fall –run off process .
