Mainstreet Research - Manitoba Election 2016 Guide

8/19/2019 Mainstreet Research - Manitoba Election 2016 Guide

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MANITOBA ELECTION 2016



“Pre-election polls are expected to be accurate in theirestimates of a voting tally or the share of the vote for

parties and candidates in an election, especially if theyare conducted close to the election itself.”

- World Association for Social, Opinion and Market

Research, ESOMAR CODE, Section 8.1



TABLE OF CONTENTS

A Message from the President, 4Polling 101, 5

Reading Our Polls, 6-8FAQ, 9

For Media, 10What to Expect in Manitoba , 11

Our Record in 2015, 12



A MESSAGE FROM THE PRESIDENT

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research hasprovided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted amajority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal governmentin British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario.Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm in several byelections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Mostrecently, Mainstreet Research was the only polling rm to correctlypredict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

Welcome to Mainstreet Research and thank you for reading ourguide to Manitoba Polling.

As I began writing this letter, we found ourselves in the early stagesof the US Presidential Primaries and although Mainstreet is aCanadian company, I follow US politics pretty closely. Last week,during the Democratic Debate between Hillary Clinton and BernieSanders, Clinton said that “Wall Street cannot destroy Main Street”. Itis perhaps appropriate to note that the sentiment expressed by Mrs.Clinton is the origin of the name Mainstreet.

The Mainstreet name originates from a saying I have used for manyyears, I cannot say whether I came up with it or if someone else saidit before me. The saying is as follows: “The votes are on Main Street,not on Bay Street”. Public opinion is not determined on Wall Street or

Bay Street. Money is a necessary part of politics and public administration, and it can pay for manyersuasive things, but it cannot buy public sentiment.

Mainstreet Research began as a Technology company, nding technology solutions and providing data andata integration to political candidates and parties across Canada for over a decade. As we grew andvolved with emerging technologies like VOIP, SMS and GIS, we began to see that our big data approacho sampling resulted in superior results than to those of 20th century pollsters. After a number of years ofxtensive testing and the addition of various resources to our team, we began releasing polls for publiconsumption and scrutiny. Our success in correctly predicting voter behaviour across Canada at all levelsf politics is a record we are proud to stand on.

Mainstreet Research continues to strive for excellence in the world of public opinion and research. Our new

echnologies, including Smart IVR, Chimera IVR and our mobile application, CampaignR, continue to leadwhile others wring their hands about decreased response rates and stampede to embrace online panel, non

robability sampling (or pseudo Probability Sampling) that has led to a series of catastrophic pollingailures in Canada and Europe.

We believe in probability sampling.We believe in large sample sizes.We believe in eliminating/mitigating bias in every possible way.We believe in disclosure of scripting, and including undecided responses.

Thank-you for reading our guide to our Manitoba Election Polls, if you have any further questions pleaseon’t hesitate to be in touch.

Quito Maggi, President, Mainstreet Research



SCRIPTING

DIALING

DATA INTEGRITY

RELEASE

WEIGHTING

REPORT

The survey topic(s) is/are decided upon. Every Manitobaelection poll includes voter intention questions. Working

with our media partners we determine additional issuequestions.

The poll is scheduled and dialed. This is where you mayreceive a phone call from us.

All data is re-formatted and checked - this includesremoving any identifying information from responses to

ensure respondent condentiality.

The data from the poll is weighted to reect the generalpopulation using our own proprietary formulas. You can

read more about weighting on page 8.

Tables are sent to our graphics team to create charts, weanalyze the results and build a press release. Our media

partner receives the details of the poll results.

The rst place the poll results appear is The WinnipegSun, later the full report is uploaded to our website.

POLLING 101 - A SIMPLIFIED TIMELINE



If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?

NDP LED BY GREG SELINGERPC LED BY BRIAN PALLISTERLIBERAL PARTY LED BY RANA BOKHARIGREEN PARTY LED BY JAMES BEDDOMEUNDECIDEDSAMPLE

18-3418%38%13%7%

24%162

35-4914%38%21%4%

23%412

50-6416%38%19%3%

24%522

65+19%46%14%3%18%702

Female17%39%17%5%

22%961

Male16%40%16%5%

23%837

NDP LED BY GREG SELINGERPC LED BY BRIAN PALLISTERLIBERAL PARTY LED BY RANA BOKHARIGREEN PARTY LED BY JAMES BEDDOMEUNDECIDEDSAMPLE

Winnipeg20%33%18%6%

23%891

Rest of MB11%

50%15%3%21%907

NDP PC Liberal Green Undecided

Manitoba17%40%17%5%

22%1798

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Jan 7 Jan 27 Feb 11 Feb 20



READING OUR REPORTS

On the previous page we’ve dropped in an actual page from one of our Manitoba reports. Hereare some common things to look for in each of our releases.

. Page number. Sometimes we will release the results of a poll in different parts. You’ll be able toell if there is a companion report available by looking at the letter. For instance, if you see B4 this

means there is a companion report available (the A report). Similarly if you see a C series reporthere are also A and B reports available.

. Poll sponsor. Most polls you’ll see this election will be Mainstreet/Postmedia polls. These appearn the Winnpeg Sun. If you want to be the rst to read our results make sure you have aubscription. There may be polls released this election commissioned by a third party - in thatnstance you will see their logo prominently displayed in the upper right hand corner. We identifyhe sponsor of a poll on every page of a release.

. Question asked. In most cases this is the exact wording of the question though in some caseswe will condense or summarize a question with a subject heading. When you see something like;PARTY AFFILIATION VS SUPPORT FOR LNG, you’ll see a breakout table looking at PartyAffiliation (1 question) with the results compared to a second question (Support for LNG). You canee the precise wording of questions on the Script page which is the third last page of a releaseunless the script runs more than 1 page).

. Sample Sizes by Demographic. These are the raw sample sizes for the poll. In this case weurveyed 162 adults between the ages of 18-34. 837 respondents were Male, 961 were female.

Every poll we release is weighted - for more on how weighting affects our polls see the next page.

. Topline numbers for the province. You can see from this column we surveyed 1,798 Manitobavoters. 40% are voting for the PCs. The column should add up to between 98%-102% as a result ofounding. Make sure you are reading the report vertically. In this way you can read the breakout for

Winnipeg and the Rest of Manitoba.

6. Poll dates. These are the dates the polls were conducted - not the dates the polls were released.To see previous reports go to mainstreetresearch.ca/manitoba-polls

Not Pictured:

7. On the front page of the report under Methodology you will see how the poll was conductedtypically IVR) the margin of error for the poll and the regional margins of error.

. This page has the results for ‘all voters’ this includes those who are undecided. A separate pagewill have results for ‘Decided & Leaning Voters’ and will be labeled as such. Another page will haveesults for ‘Decided Only’ and will be labled as such.



READING OUR REPORTS

WEIGHTING

When we collect a sample it’s highly unlikely that it will be representative of the total population.This is where weighting comes in. For example if 40% of our sample is Male and the Male

opulation is 50%, we will assign a greater score to Male respondents than to Female respondentso make up the difference. Every polling rm weighs their sample in their own way. Our weightsre based on the 2011 Canadian Census, and we identify the weights in our Methodologytatement on the front of every report.

ALL VOTERS vs DECIDED VOTERS ONLY vs DECIDED & LEANING VOTERS

n most if not all reports for Manitoba we will identify three sets of numbers: All Voters, Leaning &Decided voters and Decided Voters only.

All Voters - this is exactly what it sounds like. Every response including those voters which are

undecided.

Decided Voters Only - The only difference is we exclude undecided voters and re-calculate theercentages.

Decided & Leaning Voters - In addition to voters who have a rm decision, we include voters thatre ‘leaning’ a certain way.

EXAMPLES

Quito is polled and responds that he is voting for the Manitoba PCs. He will be included in all threeets of numbers as supporting the PCs.

David is polled and responds that he is Undecided. A follow-up question is asked, which way is heeaning? David responds he is leaning towards the NDP. He will be included in two sets of numbers:

he will be included in All Voters as Undecided. He will be included in Decided and Leaning voterss NDP.

Rebecca is polled and responds she is Undecided. She is asked the follow up: which way is sheeaning? She responds she is still Undecided. She will be included in one set of numbers: All voterss undecided.

COMPARING OUR WORK TO OTHER POLLING FIRMS

Most other polling rms will report either Decided or Decided & Leaning Numbers. It’s importanto make sure you are comparing the right sets of numbers.

MARGINS OF ERROROur polls have a true margin of error. They are scientic because the sample is randomly selected.



FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

Q: Do you call cell phones for your polls?A: Yes! We call cell phones for every poll and this is listed on our methodology statement.

Q: I would like to participate in your polls can you please call me?A: We select respondents randomly so we cannot specically include you in surveys though theres always a chance you may be called.

Q: What are the results for my riding?A: Unless we are commissioned to conduct an independent riding poll we do not release results

y riding. This is because the sample per riding is too small - it would be irresponsible for us toublish such results. If you live in Winnipeg you can see a general view of the race in your city byooking at the regional breakout tables.

Q: Why does your riding poll not match the riding projection from *insert website here*?A: A riding poll is just that - an independent survey of a riding. Riding projections by poll

ggregators can be useful information in some contexts but they are not polls. In some cases theesults will be roughly the same - in others it won’t and that’s OK. In our opinion a riding poll ismore accurate than a riding projection and some poll aggregators will take riding polls intoccount and adjust their numbers.

Q: How can your poll be accurate if you are only polling *insert number of people here*?A: It would be impossible to survey everyone in Manitoba (nor would we want to). Our telephoneurveys are scientic, by using a random sample of the population we can attach a margin of erroro our results. We have some of the largest sample sizes in the industry. Many other rms usemaller sample sizes than the ones we use on a local, provincial and national level. We areomfortable with our standards that have been tested in the real world.

Q: The demographic weighting used is based on a 2011 census, is this still representative of theopulation?

A: No, it is likely not in most cases. Although we use the latest census available, we also use ourroprietary weighting which adjusts for the small variances in demographics.

Q: I would like to receive your polls in advance, can you e-mail them to me?A: Unless you work for a media organization unfortunately not. The best place to read Mainstreet

oll results is the Winnipeg Sun. You can always check our website to see if a new poll has beeneleased.

Q: We don't believe your polls, we disagree with them very strongly, are you biased?A: Yes, we are biased: towards accuracy. In every election we have polled, there have been thosewho doubt our results during the election, but none who doubt them on election day.

Q: How do I join the Mainstreet Research team?A: We are always on the look-out for talented and creative team members. You can send us youresume and cover letter and we will keep it on le. Resumes can be sent [email protected]. If you are a student we offer a paid summer internship everyummer. Please check the jobs board of your university in the fall, we are no longer acceptingpplications for Summer 2016.



FOR MEDIA

EMBARGO LIST

We are happy to send journalists of relevant news organizations reports under embargo. Whendeciding who to accredit for our regional embargo list we consider publication schedule and theize of the media outlet. Please contact [email protected] to be included on ourmbargo list.

ATTRIBUTION

Please attribute ‘Mainstreet/Postmedia’ polls as such (Mainstreet Research for Postmedia,Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll etc.) and please identify the sponsor of any third party polls that areeleased.

NTERVIEW REQUESTS

Quito is happy to chat over the phone or in studio from Toronto/Ottawa about our poll results orhe Manitoba election in general. To arrange an interview please [email protected]

MARGINS OF ERROR

The Canadian authority on polling, the Market Research Intelligence Association (MRIA) does notllow non probability polls (opt in online panel) to publish a margin of error. Although manyublish "probability equivalent" margin of error, it is not mathematically correct to do so.

NFOGRAM

We create dynamic graphs in Infogram that can be embedded. These interactive graphs areynamic and resize for mobile and tablet. For example our standard graph contains buttons to

display the results only for Winnipeg, Non-Winnipeg. They are branded ‘Mainstreet/Postmedia’ athe bottom right hand corner. The Infogram code(s) will be e-mailed out the morning of a release.

SCRIBD

We will host a copy of the report on Scribd shortly after release. You can embed this document sohat readers are able to access the full report. The Scribd code will be e-mailed out on the morningf a release.

COLOUR CODES

We are often asked for the colour codes we use, please see them below!

#f78f23 #1a4a9a #da2127 #09aa4c



WHAT TO EXPECT IN MANITOBA

WEEKLY RELEASES

We will covering the entire 2016 Manitoba Election. At a certain point and time we will move intoweekly publication schedule. Issue questions will be selected to compliment work for our media

artners at the Winnipeg Sun.

t’s important to us that we poll the election from beginning to end. Punditry aside, we will notrejudge the outcome of the election and the voters of Manitoba. That is why we have committedo poll from the beginning to the end and several times in between, and why regardless of the

movement in horserace we will be looking at key issues affecting Manitoba residents.

MANITOBA PARTY

We have not received a formal communication from the Manitoba Party, regardless we continue todeliberate upon their potential inclusion in future polling.

The standard to be included in our surveys is to score outside the margin of error. We will beooking closely to see if other polling rms include the Manitoba Party in their surveys.

We will run select test dials during the campaign and a limited amount will include the ManitobaParty. We will keep an open mind on their potential inclusion.

FINAL POLL

We will release a nal poll in the nal week of the election campaign. Depending on theircumstances this may replace a weekly dial. We prefer not to release a poll immediately before

Election Day but if there is signicant movement will make a nal release or share a nal releasewith our media partner.

We will release a ‘post-mortem’ following the election to closely analyze the performance of ourolling and the conclusions from this analysis will be incorporated into our future Manitoba work.

QUARTERLY POLLS

Upon the conclusion of the election we will continue to publish public polls in Manitoba once perquarter.



ALBERTA

First to call the NDP Majority and the mostactive pollster of the Alberta Election.

CALGARY FOOTHILLS

Most Accurate Pollster of Calgary Foothills

- Correctly predicted a Wildrose Victory.

SUDBURY

Most Accurate Pollster of the Sudbury by

election, correctly predicted a Liberal win.

CANADA

Only Pollster to predict a Liberal Majority.Most accurate on main party numbers.



© 2015 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all threelevels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadianpublic affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots ofpublic opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberalgovernment in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has

been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoralelection. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majoritygovernment in the 2015 federal election.

CONNECT WITH US: WEBSITEmainstreetresearch.ca

TWITTER@MainStResearch

FACEBOOKfb.com/mainstresearch



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Mainstreet Research - Manitoba Election 2016 Guide