Mainstreet - Manitoba March 21A

8/19/2019 Mainstreet - Manitoba March 21A

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Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 1,772 Manitoba residents by Smart IVR™ on March 192016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 2.33%, 19 timout of 20. Regional margins of error: Winnipeg: +/-3.17%; Rest of Manitoba: +/-3.42%; ; times out of 20. Results were weighed by geography, age and gender based on the 20Canadian Census.

EMBARGOED UNTIL: 5 AM CST, MARCH 21, 2016

PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK INC.

[MARCH 21, 2016]

MANITOBA


2/14

TENUOUS TIE CONTINUES IN WINNIPEG

March 21, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds a dead heat in Winnipeg betweenProgressive Conservatives and NDP among decided and leaning voters. However, among all voters the

hold a 5 point lead. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.33%, 19 times out of 2

This is the second week in a row we have found a tight race in Winnipeg among decided and lean

voters” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “The PCs are now edging out the NDP by33% to 32%. The NDP is picking up support from undecided voters who are ‘leaning’ a certain way, buyou look at just the overall numbers in Winnipeg the PCs have a 5% lead. In other words: NDP supporWinnipeg is soft, if those soft supporters leave them the race won’t be tight at all. On the other hand: a v

s a vote is a vote - they all count the same at the ballot box.”

Among Decided and Leaning Voters (province wide): PCs 44% (+1%), NDP 24% (-3%), Liberals 24% Greens 7% (-)

The Liberals are up slightly within the margin of error, there doesn’t seem to be much change in tupport despite a shaky radio debate for Bokhari” continued Maggi. “They are in second place outs

Winnipeg but that is unlikely to translate into any seats.”

The PCs need to re-capture support in Winnipeg in order to win what look like tight races at the momThere is still a great chunk of undecided voters so all three parties have an opportunity to gain suppor

The big question mark is where undecided voters in Winnipeg will go - almost 1 in 4 Winnipegers

undecided. If they continue to lean away from the Tories it will make for some very close races, but tcould lean a different way at any moment. If the NDP can firm up the votes they have from leaners it wil

hem on a path to salvage many seats,” finished Maggi.

About Mainstreet Research

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levelgovernment, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of pu

opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in BrColumbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling n several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the opolling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

-30-

Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, [email protected] more information: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - [email protected]

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protecteby copyright. The information and/or data may onlybe rebroadcast or republished with full and propercredit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.


3/14

If the provincial electionwere held today,which party

would you support? (Manitoba)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Jan 7 Jan 27 Feb 11 Feb 20 Mar 12 Mar 19

UndecidedNDP PC Liberal Green


4/14


would you support? (Winnipeg)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35




5/14


would you support? (Rest of Manitoba)


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55



6/14


would you support?

PC

NDP

Liberal

Green

Undecided

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

Sample

Manitoba Winnipeg Rest of MB

PC

NDP

Liberal

Green

Undecided

Sample

PC

18%

36%

17%

5%

24%

1,772

22%

27%

18%

6%

27%

952

11%

50%

16%

3%

19%

820

20%

23%

16%

10%

31%

207

15%

40%

20%

3%

23%

381

19%

39%

18%

3%

22%

528

18%

47%

15%

3%

18%

656

18%

39%

19%

5%

20%

811

18%

33%

16%

5%

28%

961


7/14

And which party are youleaning towards voting for?

[Undecided Only]


13%

12%

17%

6%

52%


8/14


would you support?

DECIDED & LEANING

DECIDED ONLY

J a n 7

J a n 2 7

F

e b 1 1

F e b 2 0

M a r 1 2

M a r 1 9

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

23% 44% 27% 6%

20% 52% 19% 9%

21% 52% 20% 7%

22% 51% 22% 6%

25% 47% 22% 6%

24% 47% 23% 7%

J a n

J a n 2 7

F e b 1 1

F e b

2 0

M a r 1 2

M a r 1 9

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

23% 44% 27% 6%

20% 52% 20% 9%

21% 51% 20% 7%

21% 50% 23% 6%

27% 43% 24% 7%

24% 44% 24% 7%


9/14

DECIDED AND LEANINGWINNIPEG

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50


NDP PC Liberal Green


10/14

DECIDED AND LEANINGREST OF MANITOBA

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65


NDP PC Liberal Green


11/14


would you support?[DECIDED AND LEANING]

PC

NDP

Liberal

Green

Sample

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

Manitoba Winnipeg Rest of MB

PC

NDP

Liberal

Green

Sample

PC

31%

30%

22%

17%

179

18%

49%

29%

4%

336

24%

49%

24%

3%

463

22%

54%

20%

3%

575

22%

47%

24%

6%

709

26%

42%

24%

8%

844

24%

44%

24%

7%

1,553

32%

33%

27%

8%

825

14%

60%

21%

5%

728


12/14

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?

NDP led by Greg SelingerProgressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister

Liberal Party led by Rana Bokhari

Green Party led James BeddomeUndecided

And which Party are you leaning towards voting for?

NDP led by Greg SelingerProgressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister

Liberal Party led by Rana BokhariGreen Party led James Beddome

Undecided

SCRIPT


13/14

ONLY WE

CALLED

THELIBERAL

MAJORITY

Mainstreet Research | 132−2255B Queen Street East

| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

“I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because it’s an interviewwith a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Pub

Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such confidence, a weekbefore we voted.

Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 20in defiance of the majority of the polls.

His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanatiofor how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running

political campaign.” - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015


14/14

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all thrlevels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadi

public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liber

government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet h

been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoelection. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal major

government in the 2015 federal election.

CONNECT WITH US: WEBSITE

mainstreetresearch.ca

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@MainStResearch

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Mainstreet - Manitoba March 21A