Department of Atomic Energy

Arun

Srivastava Department of Atomic Energy, Mumbai

1-4 February 2010, IAEA, Vienna

Main driving factors for India’s long term nuclear energy

strategy

INPRO Dialogue Forum on Nuclear Energy Innovations

• Social and macroeconomic Factors

• Energy Resource Position

• Nuclear Energy Strategy

Presentation Outline

For the size and complexity of a country like India, which has

• 21 languages and cultures, • a history going back to 10,000 years, • 17% of the world population, • 2.2% of the land mass, • 2.4% of the world's GDP (i.e. 97.6% buying power outside

India) or 6.6% of the world’s GDP in PPP terms.• only 0.6% of the world's trade! (i.e. 99.4% of world trade is

outside India)

Aspiration to be among the top !!

India’s Macro Economic Indicators (March 2009)

Population about 1,112 Million

GDP 2008-09: US $ 1179.8 bn at current prices

Per capita GDP(PPP) (2005 est.) – US $3,400

GDP growth rate 2005-06 : 9.5%, 2006-07: 9.7%, 2007-08: 9% and 2008-09: 6.7% (provisional)

Composition of GDP 2008-09:Service: 57.3%Industry: 25.7%Agriculture : 17%

FDI 2008-09 : US $ 33.6 billion

Average literacy rate – 64.84%

Life expectancy for male: 63.87 yr female: 66.91 yr

• 3rd Largest GDP in PPP terms (after USA and China)

• 10th largest in GDP terms

• 4th in TPES (Mtoe) (after USA, China and Russian Federation)

• 5th in Electricity generation/consumption (after USA, China, Japan and Russian Federation)

• 111th in terms of Per capita electricity consumption

1123.32 771.09 4024.89 594.91 609.74 1324.05 3583 543 1.18

Population (million)

GDP (billion 2000 US$)

GDP (PPP)

(billion 2000 US$)

TPES (Mtoe)

Elec. Cons. (TWh)

CO 2 Emissio ns (Mt

of CO 2)

GDP (PPP) / Pop US$

Per capita Elec. Cons

(kWh)

Per capita CO2

Emission (te)

Source : IEA 2009 Key World Energy Statistics

India -

Select Indicators for 2007

Indian target Indian target -- in global contextin global context (Source of data: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007 for 1996 data and

IEA 2009 ‘Key World Energy Statistics’ for 2007 data)

1123 1013

640 630 564

803

4323

3279

573431 513550

847

3611

1081 989

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

USA China Japan Russia India Canada Germany France

Elec

tric

ity

Gen

erat

ion

(TW

h)

20071996

Target: 8000 TW(e)h ; 5000 kWh/Cap+ by 2050

13,616 kWh/Cap

2,328

8,475 6,338 543 16,995 7,185 7,573

Per cap. Elect. Cons. Vs GDP (PPP 2000 US$)

0

2000

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8000

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0 10000 20000 30000 40000

Per capita GDP(PPP US$)

Per c

apita

ele

ctric

ity c

onsu

mpt

ion-

kWh

Per capita Elec. Cons (kWh) Log. (Per capita Elec. Cons (kWh)) 7

IndiaChina

OECD

USA

India in 2050

Correlation between Electricity Consumption & GDP

Source: IEA 2009, Key World Energy Statistics

Department of Atomic Energy

Amount Electricity Potential¤

GWe-yr

Coal (Economically mineable)(Total Resource 255 BT)

98.2 –BT* 19,457

Hydrocarbon 12 –BT# 5,833

UraniumUranium--Metal Metal 61,000 61,000 --TT

-- In PHWRIn PHWR 320320

-- In Fast BreedersIn Fast Breeders 42,00042,000

ThoriumThorium--Metal Metal (In Breeders)(In Breeders) 2,25,000 2,25,000 ––TT 155,000155,000

Hydro 150 -GWe 69 GWe-yr / yr

Non-conv. Ren. 100 -GWe 33 GWe-yr / yr

¤ Assuming entire resource is used for generating electricity.

# Currently known resources (including coal bed methane) are 3 BT. However, MP&NG has set a target of locating at least 12 BT as per Vision Hydrocarbon-2025.

IndiaIndia’’s Energy Resource Bases Energy Resource Base

Ref: Integrated Energy Policy, Dec 2005, p39

Renewal Energy Resources

Department of Atomic Energy

Energy Development Policy

Consume as much as possible the non- carbon energy (Full Hydro potential by 2025, ~50% Non-conventional potential by 2020 and balance by 2050)

Energy - Imports as low as possible (restrict to present level of ~30%)

Energy conservation and efficiency emphasis

Social Dimension – Provide for minimum basic commercial energy need to even the lowest economic group

Department of Atomic Energy

1960-61 1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 2000-01 2006-07

Domestic production of Commercial Energy

36.78 47.67 75.19 150.01 207.08 259.56

Net Imports 6.04 12.66 24.63 31.07 89.03 131.07

Total Commercial Energy

42.82 60.33 99.82 181.08 296.11 391.53

Non- Commercial Energy

74.38 86.72 108.48 122.07 136.64 147.56

Total Primary Energy

117.20 147.05 208.3 303.15 432.75 539.09

Non-C E as % of TPE

63.64% 58.97% 52.08% 40.27% 31.57% 27.37%

Import as % of TCE

14.11% 20.98% 24.67% 17.16% 30.07% 33.48%

Trends in Demand and Supply of Primary Commercial Energy (in Mtoe)

Source: Draft report of the Steering Committee on Energy for the XI five year plan (2007-12)

Non-Commercial Energy: fuel wood, crop residue, cow dung, biogas etc

Department of Atomic Energy

Tools Used• MESSAGE: Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives

and their General Environmental Impacts- Optimisation study on use of resources

- Developing scenarios

• DESAE: Dynamics of Energy System – Atomic Energy - Quantitative assessment of nuclear energy

systems.

• ISED: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development - Social, Economic & Environmental- Energy & Development- Import independence- Resource diversity (fuel type, region &

country)

Assumptions on Socio-Economic Development and Energy Demand

Assumptions on Technical and

Economic Parameters for

Various Technologies

Assumptions on Energy Resource Availability, Costs

and Possibilities for Imports

MESSAGE

NUCLEAR POWER DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO

Import Dependence, Environmental Impacts,

etc.

DESAE

Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power

Projections

Investments, Costs and Resource Needs

Department of Atomic Energy

Scenarios for Total Installed Power Capacity in India

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Year

GW

e

DAE PC_GDP-Growth 8% PC_GDP-Growth 9%

(DAE-2004 and Planning Commission-2006 studies)

15

Three Stage Indian Nuclear Programme

U fueledPHWRs

Pu FueledFast Breeders

Nat. U

Dep. U

Pu

Th

Th

U233 FueledReactors

Pu

U233

Electricity

Electricity

Electricity

Stage 1Stage 1 Stage 2Stage 2 Stage 3Stage 3

PHWR FBTR AHWR

Thorium in the centre stage

Power generation primarily by PHWRBuilding fissile inventory for stage 2

Expanding power programmeBuilding U233 inventory

Thorium utilisation forSustainable power programme

U233

320 GWe-Year42000 GWe-Year

155000 GWe-Year

2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

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400

600

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1400

2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

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1400

Inst

alle

d ca

paci

ty (G

We)

Year2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

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2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

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Inst

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paci

ty (G

We)

Year2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

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2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

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Inst

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paci

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We)

Year

Strategies for long-term energy security

Hydroelectric

Non-conventional

Coal domestic

Hydrocarbon

Nuclear (Domestic 3-stage programme)Projected

requirement*

*Ref: “A Strategy for Growth of Electrical Energy in India”, document 10, August 2004, DAE

No imported reactor/fuelNo imported reactor/fuel

Deficit to be filled by fossil fuel / LWR imports LWR (Imported)

FBR using spent fuel from LWR

LWR import: 40 LWR import: 40 GWeGWe Period: 2012Period: 2012--20202020LWR import: 40 LWR import: 40 GWeGWe Period: 2022Period: 2022--20302030

Deficit 412 GWe

Required coal import:Required coal import:1.6 billion 1.6 billion tonnetonne** in 2050in 2050

** -- Assuming 4200 kcal/kgAssuming 4200 kcal/kg

Deficit 7 GWe

The deficit is practically The deficit is practically wiped out in 2050wiped out in 2050

Deficit 178 GWe

Required coal import:Required coal import:0.7 billion 0.7 billion tonnetonne** in 2050in 2050

Strategies for optimum use of domestic nuclear resources

1980 1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 20700

100

200

300

400

500

600

Inst

alle

d ca

paci

ty (

GW

e)

Year

Indian PWHRs (700

MWe)

Global range

Capital Cost $/kWe 1700 2000-2500

Construction period 5-6 years 5-6 years

UEC $/MWh 60 60 - 70* Completion cost + 2008 Prices

KAPS – 1 adjudged the best performing PHWR in the world for the period October 2001 to September 2002.

In 2003 and 2007, two senior Indian operators of Nuclear Power Stations, received the WANO excellence award.

“At the end of 2002 average annual CANDU/PHWR performance continued to show a gradual improvement, led by the units of NPCIL (India)…” “The NPCIL PHWRs showed a major improvement in GCF in 2002, exceeding US light water reactor performance by almost 1%…” - Brian MacTavish, President, COG

1980 1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 20700

100

200

300

400

500

600

Inst

alle

d ca

paci

ty (

GW

e)

Year

1980 1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 20700

100

200

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500

600

Inst

alle

d ca

paci

ty (

GW

e)

Year

Results for a scenario with current domestic Uranium resources and assuming short doubling time FBRs from 2021

Power profile of PHWR programme

Growth with Pu-U FBRs

Detailed calculations have shown that thorium can be deployed on a large scale about 3 decades after introduction of FBRs with short doubling time

Growth with Pu-U FBRs

PFBR (500 MWe)

Project sanctioned in 2003

Further development being pursued to reduce doubling time and UEC

Russia is the only other country with a larger FBR under construction /operation

Construction site with Safety Vessel under erection

TAPS 3 – 4 (540 MWe each)

NPCIL is a AAA (CRISIL) rated company for ten years in a row.

Capital cost (Rs/kWe)

69840

UEC (Rs/kWh) 3.22

Construction period

7 years

Further growth with thorium

Further growth with thorium

AHWR – A 300 MWe technology demonstrator to -

1.Enhance scale of operation of thorium

2.Demonstrate realisation of objectives of 4th

generation reactor systems right now

- is ready for launch of construction

1980 1995 2010 2025 2040 20550

25

50

75In

stal

led

Capa

city

(G

We)

Year

Growth with Pu-U FBRs

Best effort use of Pu with Th in PHWRs and MSRs

PHWR(Nat U)

Peaks at 36 GWe

only

Premature introduction of thorium hampers the growth

Advanced Energy Technologies: Thorium and beyond

New technology• Metallic fuel• Molten salt

• Liquid heavy metal• High power accelerators

• High temperature materials• Hydrogen production• Hydrogen utilisation

• Fusion

Deliverables• Short doubling time FBR

• ADS for isotope production• ADS for power production

• Compact high temperature reactor• IHTR (for commercial H2

production)

• ITER

Spin-offsSolar towerDesalinationFuel cells

Department of Atomic Energy

Department of Atomic Energy

Concluding Remarks

Energy as well as electricity consumption per capita has to increase to ensure continued high GDP growth.

Augment energy resources and supply in a sustainable manner. Non-fossil resources needs to be augmented.

Reduce energy requirement through energy efficiency and conservation. Reduce T&D losses

Encourage renewable and local solutions

Enhance energy security (Nuclear power)

Promote adaptation of clean coal technologies for future power plants

Decrease in non-commercial use in Rural areas by providing cleaner energy options to them thereby reduce health related problems

Rural economy needs to be strengthened so as to increase the affordability of rural people and arrest the migration from rural to urban areas.

Department of Atomic Energy

Thank You