7/30/2019 Maddy-Weitzman Rumblings Jordan 1712JReport-27

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THE JERUSALEM REPORT DECEMBER 17, 2012 27

Despite recent violent protests, most Jordanians, when they look at what is

happening around them, are aware that things could be a lot worse

Rumblings across the river

JORDAN HAS been conspicuously absentfrom the list of Arab states that have beenbuffeted by uprisings during the last twoyears.

One, partial, explanation is that monar-chical regimes from Morocco to the Gulfstates (excepting Bahrain) possess animportant extra degree of legitimacy and

political capital, and have thus been betterequipped than other Arab states to managetensions and avoid major upheavals.However, no Arab monarchy, least ofall resource-poor and geopoliticallyvulnerable Jordan, is immune.

The eruption of violent protests acrossthe country mid-November, in protestagainst an announced cut in fuel subsidies,served as a reminder of that maxim.Particularly noteworthy was the fact thatsome of the demonstrators openly calledfor the overthrow of the monarchy.

The fact that there were clashes withthe security forces in the southern citiesRI7DODK0DDQDQG'KLEDQWUDGLWLRQDObastions of support for the HashemitePRQDUFK\ FRQUPHG DQHZ WKDW WKHintimate relationship of East Bank Bedouinwith the late King Hussein, which borderedon reverence, has not carried over to hisson, King Abdallah II.

Like the rest of the non-oil producingArab countries, economic troubles areFHQWUDO WR -RUGDQV PDODLVH ZKLFK WKHexisting political framework is incapableof meaningfully addressing. Nearly a

decade of violence in neighboring Iraq hashad a serious negative impact on JordanianH[SRUWVZKLOHWKHPDVVLYHLQX[RIZHOOoff Iraqi refugees has driven housingprices in Amman beyond the means ofmost Jordanians.

The chaos in Syria has caused furtherlosses for Jordanian businesses, and150,000 Syrian refugees constitute a newburden on the authorities. Meanwhile,tourism revenues have been weakened bythe recession in Europe, while gas supply

interruptions from Egypt and the risingcost of imported oil placed new pressureson the Jordanian budget.

Moreover, the underlying structuralfactors are sobering and not essentiallydifferent than in most other Arab states.

7KH RIFLDO XQHPSOR\PHQW UDWH LV PRUHthan 12 percent, and for those in the 15-24age bracket almost 30 percent, and there isno prospect for lowering it. Although GulfPRQDUFKLHV KDYH SURYLGHG VLJQLFDQW DLGand pledged even more, the $2 billion loancontracted with the IMF requires majorbudgetary reform, including the reductionof fuel and subsidies, which prompted the

latest unrest.

THE CUTTING of subsidies on basic goodshas always been a dangerous step forauthoritarian Arab regimes that lack theunderlying legitimacy, which a genuinelydemocratic political system provides.Abdallah has long presented himself asa champion of reform, one which wouldrevitalize the political system withoutundermining monarchical authority,and enable the government to tackle the

FRXQWU\VVWUXFWXUDOHFRQRPLFSUREOHPVBut this is easier said than done. Weekly

protests during the last year led by theopposition Islamic Action Front (MuslimBrotherhood) have called for a genuinetransfer of authority from the palace-directed governmental apparatus to anelected parliament and prime minister.

Changes in the electoral system in advanceof the upcoming January 2013 elections forparliament were heavily weighted againstIAF candidates, causing the IAF to declarea boycott of the elections.

But given the upward trend for Islamicmovements in competitive electionsacross the region during the last twoyears, Jordanian authorities are keennot to allow too much political spacefor the IAF. Moreover, genuine reformmeasures, including a sustained tacklingof corruption, would upset some of the

UHJLPHV HOLWH OR\DOLVWV ZKRP $EGDOODKmust avoid hurting as he now needsthem more than ever. Following the latestdisturbances, the IAF has called for theestablishment of a national salvationgovernment, in which it would expect toplay a prominent role.

This is not to say that Jordan is on theverge of upheaval. Gulf monarchies,Western powers and Israel all have a keeninterest in preserving this fragile islandof stability between the Fertile Crescentand the Arabian Peninsula. And mostJordanians, when they look at what is

happening around them, are aware thatthings could be a lot worse.

But successfully steering Jordan throughthe coming phase will require considerableQHVVHDVZHOODV SUHYHQWLQJ WKHP\ULDGFRQLFWVRQLWVERUGHUVIURPVSLOOLQJRYHUinto the kingdom.

The author is the Marcia Israel Principal

Research Fellow at the Moshe Dayan

Center for Middle Eastern and African

Studies, Tel Aviv University.

M

UHAMMADHAMED/REUTERS

M IDEA ST M O N ITO R BRUC E M A D D Y-W EITZM A N

Islamic Action Front and other opposition

parties demonstrate in Amman, November 16