LUPIS - Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in ...€¦ · LUPIS IA: re-use tools and knowledge, integrate data, models, stakeholders; balanced qualitative & quantitative

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LUPIS - Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries

Floor Brouwer, Irina Bezlepkina, Le Chen (LEI)

with contributions from LUPIS partners

Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries

Improve knowledge of the impact

that different land use policies will have on the

sustainable development of developing

countries

Develop integrated assessment tools

for application by scientists in a selected

number of developing countries

Building blocks

Tools developed in European context

Test applicability in developing countries

Key objectives


EU FP6 Project “LUPIS”

Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing

Countries

15 partners, 11 Countries

Feb 2007 – March 2011

Co-ordination

Floor Brouwer

(LEI, part of Wageningen UR)


Research Questions in impact assessments

What is the impact on sustainable development of implementing...

(Tunisia)... water conservation measures

(Kenya)......group ranch subdivision policy

(India)... organic farming policies

(Brazil)... land and forest conservation policies

(Indonesia) ... land conversion control policies

(China)... water pollution control measures (policies)

(Mali)... plans towards expanding land under irrigation


Methodological framework (iterative process) Pre-modelling:

(problem analysis)

Modelling:

(quantify indicators)

Post-modelling:

(evaluate contribution of policy to sustainable

development)

Users

/sta

keh

old

ers

Data


Involvement of Stakeholders at various stages

National policy forums, workshops – informing and

interviewing

Institutional assessment (pre- and post-modelling)

regarding policy governance

Weighing indicators, Land Use Functions, Sustainability

dimensions (post-modelling)


Information System


Tunisia: impacts of water pricing policies


National level Regional level Local level Farm level

Medenine Governorate

Tunisia

Oum Zessar watershed

Study area


Farm type characteristics

FARM_1 FARM_2 FARM_3 FARM_4

Production system State State Private Private

Total area/farm (ha) 3.5 2.5 6.4 3.0

Irrigated land (%) 56 56 56 56

Share (%)

Cereals

Vegetables

Olives

15

21

51

9

30

45

12

55

24

6

38

38


Scenarios

Baseline: Maintained existing water pricing

system and water allocation. Existing prices

covers the running costs of the institution

responsible for water management

Policy: Increase of irrigation water price by 13%

per year

LUPIS contract number GOCE-036955


IA Results: Farm level, 2015 Farm Income (DT/ha)

-6%-8%

-21% -25%

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000


(DT/ ha)

baseline_2015

Scenario_1&2_2015

WATER USE (m3/ha)

-11%-5%

-18%

-15%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000


wa

ter

us

e

(m3

/ha

)

baseline_2015

Scenario_1&2_2015SOIL EROSION (T/ha)

- 7%

- 6%~-1%

- 3%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6


So

il e

rosio

n (

T/h

a)

baseline_2015

Scenario_1&2_2015

LABOUR USE (Hours/ha)

-7%

-5%

-3% -4%

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200


(Hours/ ha)

baseline_2015

Scenario_1&2_2015


Kenya: impacts of land subdivision policy


Study Area

Narok district

Highlands:

• 10% of region, with rich

volcanic soils

• rain-fed large-scale

agricultural farms

Lowlands:

• 90% of region, with poor

quality soils

• group ranches for

livestock rearing


Scenarios

Assumptions Baseline

BAU

Optimistic

S1

Pessimistic

S2

Equitable

S3

Population growth 2.8% 2.0% 5.0% 4.0%

Free movement of livestock

and wildlife Partly Yes No

Partly, more than BAU but

less than S1

Livestock population -30% 5% -50% No change

Wildlife population -30% 5% -50% No change

Equitable distribution of

tourism revenue No Yes No Partly improved

Cropping areas 10% 3% 15% 5%

Land use planning 20% 80% 5% 10%


Results of impact assessment

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

BAU Optimistic Pessimistic Equitable

Total contribution of each scenario to each sustainability dimension

Environmental

Economic

Social


India: impacts of organic policies


Study area: Karnataka

Northern Dry Zone

Central Dry Zone

Eastern Dry Zone

Southern Transition Zone

Coastal Zone


IA Results for Bijapur: Farm level, 2015

0

5

10

15

20

25Fertiliser Use ('00

kg/ha)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300Labour req. (days/ha)

0

60

120

180Net income ('000 Rup/ha) Jw-Wt Jowar-Wheat

Jw-Sf Jowar-Sunflower

Jw-Ps Jowar-Pulse

Sf-Wt Sunflower-Wheat

Wt-Mz Wheat-Maize

Grp Grapes

Sgc Sugarcane

Jw-Mz Jowar-Maize

Wt-Ps Wheat-Pulse

Jw-Ps Jowar-Pulse

Mz-Ps Maize-Pulse

Conventional

Organic


Impact Assessment in LUPIS: Conclusions Need for ex-ante policy assessments: to understand

intended and unintended impacts of policies

Rich tool-boxes are not sufficient: integrated way of research is emerging for developing countries

Challenges in the collaboration: diversity of cultures, lack of ex-ante in-house approaches, limited experience in multi-disciplinary research, data constraints, hardly existing science-policy platforms


Impact Assessment in LUPIS: Conclusions LUPIS IA: re-use tools and knowledge, integrate data,

models, stakeholders; balanced qualitative & quantitative methods; common language

Governance is critically important in understanding sustainable development in developing countries (implementation and enforcement of policies)

LUPIS has contributed to more frequent and systematic interactions with stakeholders than is usual approaches (National and Intl Policy Forums and workshops)

Documents

LUPIS - Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in ...€¦ · LUPIS IA: re-use tools and knowledge, integrate data, models, stakeholders; balanced qualitative & quantitative