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LUNCH & LEARN DISCUSSION SERIES
The Employment and Wage Effects of the Pandemic Recession11:30 am - 11:35 amWelcome and IntroductionsMichael Greenstone, Milton Friedman Distinguished Service Professor in Economics; Director, BFI
11:35 am - 11:50 amThe Employment and Wage Effects of the Pandemic RecessionErik Hurst, Frank P. and Marianne R. Diassi Distinguished Service Professor of Economics, UChicago Booth School of Business; Deputy Director, BFI
11:50 am - 12:05 pmModerated ConversationKaren Anderson, Senior Director of Policy, Communications & External Affairs, BFI
Erik Hurst
12:05 pm - 12:30 pmAudience Q&A
Q&A Submit questions by using the Q&A box below
Related ResearchDive deeper into the research on today’s topic by going to the research section
Tech supportIf you experience technical issues during the discussion, please click “?” for help
@BeckerFriedman #EngageBFI
The U.S. Labor Market During the Beginning of the Pandemic RecessionErik Hurst
JOIN THE CONVERSATION: @BeckerFriedman #EngageBFI
Today
Use payroll microdata from ADP to chart the labor market at beginning of the PandemicRecession
1 Employment, both aggregate and disaggregated
2 Wages
3 Hours
4 Business shutdown/re-entry and employee recall
5 Employment response of state re-opening
3
Today
Benefits of Administrative Payroll Data?
BLS puts out monthly data on labor market conditions using both business and householddata (CES and CPS)
ADP Payroll Data
1 Have data for 26 million workers (about 1/6 of US workforce)
2 Broadly nationally representative by firm size and industry
3 Large samples and high frequency (allows for cross-location variation in state policies)
4 Linked employer-employee data (critical for studying worker recall)
5 Administrative data for wages (allows for measurement of nominal wage adjustments)
4
Benefits of Administrative Payroll Data?
Employment
Active and Paid Employment Since February
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
U.S
. Em
ploy
men
t Rel
ativ
e to
Feb
ruar
y 15
th
Paid Employment Active Employment
6
Active and Paid Employment Since February
Active and Paid Employment Since February
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
U.S
. Em
ploy
men
t Rel
ativ
e to
Feb
ruar
y 15
th
Paid Employment Active Employment
21%�employment�decline� =�~26.5�million�jobs
7
Active and Paid Employment Since February
Active and Paid Employment Since February
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
U.S
. Em
ploy
men
t Rel
ativ
e to
Feb
ruar
y 15
th
Paid Employment Active Employment
~7�million�job�rebound
8
Active and Paid Employment Since February
Paid Employment by Firm Size
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
U.S
. Em
ploy
men
t Rel
ativ
e to
Feb
ruar
y 15
th
1-49 Workers 50-499 Workers 500+ Workers
9
Paid Employment by Firm Size
Paid Employment Changes By 2-Digit Industry
Industry 2/15-4/25 2/15-5/30Arts, Entertainment and Recreation -50.7% -41.5%Accommodation and Food Services -45.5% -34.1%Retail Trade -28.7% -18.5%Other Services -25.0% -17.1%Transportation and Warehousing -21.7% -23.2%Real Estate, Rental and Leasing -20.9% -19.6%Wholesale Trade -17.6% -12.3%Administrative and Support -17.0% -17.1%Educational Services -16.6% -17.5%Health Care and Social Assistance -16.5% -8.8%Construction -13.5% -4.5%Manufacturing -12.4% -8.6%Professional, Scientific, and Tech Services -12.1% -9.1%Finance and Insurance -1.3% -0.7%
10
Paid Employment Changes By 2-Digit Industry
Paid Employment Changes By 2-Digit Industry
Industry 2/15-4/25 2/15-5/30Arts, Entertainment and Recreation -50.7% -41.5%Accommodation and Food Services -45.5% -34.1%Retail Trade -28.7% -18.5%Other Services -25.0% -17.1%Transportation and Warehousing -21.7% -23.2%Real Estate, Rental and Leasing -20.9% -19.6%Wholesale Trade -17.6% -12.3%Administrative and Support -17.0% -17.1%Educational Services -16.6% -17.5%Health Care and Social Assistance -16.5% -8.8%Construction -13.5% -4.5%Manufacturing -12.4% -8.6%Professional, Scientific, and Tech Services -12.1% -9.1%Finance and Insurance -1.3% -0.7%
11
Paid Employment Changes By 2-Digit Industry
Paid Employment Changes By 2-Digit Industry
Industry 2/15-4/25 2/15-5/30Arts, Entertainment and Recreation -50.7% -41.5%Accommodation and Food Services -45.5% -34.1%Retail Trade -28.7% -18.5%Other Services -25.0% -17.1%Transportation and Warehousing -21.7% -23.2%Real Estate, Rental and Leasing -20.9% -19.6%Wholesale Trade -17.6% -12.3%Administrative and Support -17.0% -17.1%Educational Services -16.6% -17.5%Health Care and Social Assistance -16.5% -8.8%Construction -13.5% -4.5%Manufacturing -12.4% -8.6%Professional, Scientific, and Tech Services -12.1% -9.1%Finance and Insurance -1.3% -0.7%
12
Paid Employment Changes By 2-Digit Industry
Paid Employment Changes By 2-Digit Industry
Industry 2/15-4/25 2/15-5/30Arts, Entertainment and Recreation -50.7% -41.5%Accommodation and Food Services -45.5% -34.1%Retail Trade -28.7% -18.5%Other Services -25.0% -17.1%Transportation and Warehousing -21.7% -23.2%Real Estate, Rental and Leasing -20.9% -19.6%Wholesale Trade -17.6% -12.3%Administrative and Support -17.0% -17.1%Educational Services -16.6% -17.5%Health Care and Social Assistance -16.5% -8.8%Construction -13.5% -4.5%Manufacturing -12.4% -8.6%Professional, Scientific, and Tech Services -12.1% -9.1%Finance and Insurance -1.3% -0.7%
13
Paid Employment Changes By 2-Digit Industry
Employment Declines by Sex
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
Em
ploy
men
t Cha
nge
Rel
ativ
e to
Feb
ruar
y 1s
t
Male Female14
Employment Declines by Sex
Employment Declines by Initial Wage Quintile
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
Em
ploy
men
t Cha
nge
Rel
ativ
e to
Feb
ruar
y 1s
t
Quintile 1 Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Quintile 515
Employment Declines by Initial Wage Quintile
Business Closure, Re-Entry and Recalls
Employment in Continuing Firms
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
U.S
. Em
ploy
men
t Rel
ativ
e to
Feb
ruar
y 15
th
Paid Employment, All Paid Employment, Continuers
Continuing firms are those firms that make regularly scheduled payroll 17
Employment in Continuing Firms
Distribution of Employment Gains 2/15-5/30, Continuing Firms
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Empl
oym
ent c
hang
e (%
)
Percentiles
1-49 employees50-499 employees500+ employees
18
Distribution of Employment Gains 2/15-5/30, Continuing Firms
Current Business Shutdown and Re-Entry
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
Shar
e of
Feb
ruar
y 15
th E
mpl
oym
ent
Shut Down Re-Entered19
Current Business Shutdown and Re-Entry
Decomposition Summary Relative to Feb 15th
Employment Declines Through April 25th
77.8% of employment decline due to continuing firms
28.0% of employment decline due to exiting firms
5.8% increase to “new” sample entrants
Employment Gains April 25th through May 30th
67.3% of subsequent increase due to net hiring in continuing firms
36.4% of subsequent increase due to employment gains in re-opening firms.
New sample entrants and new shutdowns roughly cancel
20
Decomposition Summary Relative to Feb 15
Firm Shutdown and Re-Entry: Firms < 50 Employees
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
Shar
e of
Feb
ruar
y 15
th E
mpl
oym
ent
Shut Down Re-Entered
About 50% of employment losses for small firms through late April was due to exit.21
Firm Shutdown and Re-Entry: Firms < 50 Employees
Firm Shutdown and Re-Entry: Firms > 500 Employees
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
Shar
e of
Feb
ruar
y 15
th E
mpl
oym
ent
Shut Down Re-Entered
22
Firm Shutdown and Re-Entry: Firms < 500 Employees
Firm Size of Re-Entering Firms (Relative to Feb 15th)
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Median (Mean) re-entering firm is currently at 25% (40%) of their February size.23
Firm Size of Re-Entering Firms (Relative to Feb 15)
Share of Re-Entering Firms’ Employment that are Recalls
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Nearly all employment in re-entering firms are recalled-workers. 24
Share of Re-Entering Firms’ Employment that are Recalls
Wages
Aggregate Wages
0.94
0.96
0.98
1.00
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
Ave
rage
U.S
. Wag
e R
elat
ive
to F
ebru
ary
15th
No Adjustment Selection Adjusted26
Aggregate Wages
Wage Adjustment: Firms that Traditionally Change Wages in March-May
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Panel A: Probability of Wage Freeze Panel B: Probability of Wage Cut
Sample: Firms that changed most of their wages during 2019 in March, April and May.
27
Wage Adjustment: Firms that Traditionally Change Wages in March-May
Wage Adjustment: Firms that Traditionally Change Wages in March-May
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Panel A: Probability of Wage Freeze Panel B: Probability of Wage Cut
Sample: Firms that changed most of their wages during 2019 in March, April and May.Both wage cuts and wage freezes are more common in 2020 28
Wage Adjustment: Firms that Traditionally Change Wages in March-May
Wage Adjustment: Firms that Traditionally Change Wages in March-May�
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Panel A: Probability of Wage Freeze Panel B: Probability of Wage Cut
2020: 46% with freeze, 11.4% with cut2008-10: 40% with freeze, 6% with cut 29
Wage Adjustment: Firms that Traditionally Change Wages in March-May
Wage Adjustment: Firms that Traditionally Change Wages in March-May
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Panel A: Probability of Wage Freeze Panel B: Probability of Wage Cut
Bottom Quintile Workers: 67% with freeze, 1.2% with cutTop Quintile Workers: 34% with freeze, 15.3% with cut
30
Wage Adjustment: Firms that Traditionally Change Wages in March-May
Cross State Re-Openings
Some Caveats on Cross-State Re-Opening Studies
Most sectors did not close in most states (essential services in many states includemanufacturing, construction, professional services (that can be done from home), finance,some retail, some medical, etc.
Re-openings often took place at di↵erent times within states.
The di↵erence across most states in the timing of re-opening is small (a few weeks)
State re-openings are often endogenous to changes in underlying health risks (which varyspatially).
Some caution needed in interpreting causal estimates of employment e↵ects of statere-openings.
32
Some Caveats on Cross-State Re-Opening Studies
State Re-Opening: Employment in Food/Accommodation
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
Em
ploy
men
t Cha
nge
Rel
ativ
e to
Feb
ruar
y 1s
t
Large States Opening Late (IL, PA, VA, WA) Large States Open Early (FL, GA, TX) 33
State Re-Opening: Employment in Food/Accomodation
Summary
Unprecedented paid employment declines at start of Pandemic Recession
Concentrated among low wage workers, small firms, and women
Employment has increased meaningfully (by about 7 million workers) during May.
Selection e↵ects ! average wage increase
More base wage freezes and cuts than in Great Recession
Firm shutdown important, but some beginning to re-enter
Re-entering and growing business mostly recall previous employees
Not surprisingly, employment increases when states re-open sectors.34
Summary
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