Upload
irsolav-pomares
View
94
Download
1
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Presented by:
LUIS MARTÍN POMARES
ENERGY DEPARTAMENTRenewable energy division
Plataforma Solar de Almería
SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTING WITH MESOSCALE SIMALTION MODEL WRF
2
SOLAR RADIATION FORECASTING
1. MOTIVATION
2. GROUND MEASUREMENTS DATA
3. RESULTS
4. CONCLUSIONS
3
INTRODUCTION
4
GROUND SOLAR RADIATION DATA
•Data Period:1/1/2005 – 28/2/2005•#Data: 59 days of data 1416 values.•Predicition of Hourly Goblal Solar Radiation•Domain Europe•Resolution 27km
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
40
45
50
55
60
65
5
RESULTS: HOURLY
36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 440
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100RMSE Hourly Solar Radiation Forecasting
% R
MSE
Latitude
36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20MBE Hourly Solar Radiation Forecasting
% M
BE
Latitude
6
RESULTS: DAILY
36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 440
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90RMSE Daily Solar Radiation Forecasting
% R
MS
E
Latitude
36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20MBE Daily Solar Radiation Forecasting
% M
BE
Latitude
7
RESULTS: GRANADA 37.14º
0 500 1000 1500-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
MBE: 7.46% RMSE: 34.39%
8
RESULTS: GRANADA 37.14º
Daily Solar Radiation ForecastingMBE:9.14% RMSE:24.36%
9
RESULTS: OVIEDO 43.35º
0 500 1000 1500-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
MBE: -14.56% RMSE: 75.45%
10
RESULTS: OVIEDO 43.35º
Daily Solar Radiation ForecastingMBE: -16.01% RMSE: 64.01%
11
RESULTS1/2/2005 12:00
Granada
Oviedo
12
RESULTS6/2/2005 12:00
Granada
Oviedo
13
RESULTS9/2/2005 12:00
Granada
Oviedo
14
RESULTS22/2/2005 12:00
Granada
Oviedo
15
CONCLUSIONS