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LPEM FEUI 2014-02 Institute for Economic

and Social Research

Faculty of Economics University of Indonesia

www.solopos.com

Textile and Textile Products, Footwear, and Furniture

Industries: Could They Continue to Develop?

I Kadek Dian Sutrisna Artha1 dan Uka Wikarya2

Executive Summary

Industri manufaktur Indonesia memiliki potensi untuk berperan sebagai

leading sector penguatan perekonomian, karena berkaitan dengan sektor

lain, dan bernilai tambah signifikan. Studi ini bertujuan (1) Melakukan analisis

data historis; serta (2) Melakukan proyeksi atas indikator industrial terpilih.

Objek kajian meliputi sub-sektor industri Tekstil dan Produk Tekstil (TPT), alas

kaki, serta furnitur, dalam periode pengamatan 1990 - 2012.

Ketiga sub-sektor dihadapkan pada permasalahan umum meliputi (1)

Keterbatasan industri bahan baku dan penolong; (2) Kelemahan teknologi;

(3) Keterpusatan ekspor pada beberapa komoditas dan negara tujuan; serta

(4) Ketidaksesuaian standar produk. Peningkatan 1% PDB dunia diperkirakan

Editor :

Jayu Pramudya

Setting :

Dian Purnamasari

September 2014

www.lpem.org

ketiga sub-sektor sebesar 0.08%. Kenaikan pendapatan per kapita riil

secara domestik sebesar 1% berasosiasi dengan pertumbuhan 0,42%.

Rekomendasi untuk sub-sektor TPT meliputi (1) Pemberdayaan industri

hulu, seperti produsen fiber, rayon, poliester, dan serat alam berbahan non-

kapas; (2) Pengetatan aturan peremajaan mesin; (3) Penyediaan dukungan

dana investasi; serta (4) Penjaminan kesinambungan pasokan energi.

Rekomendasi untuk sub-sektor alas kaki adalah (1) Peninjauan kembali

larangan impor kulit dari Tiongkok dan pengkajian wacana pembatasan

ekspor kulit; serta (2) Pemantapan koordinasi tripartit. Rekomendasi bagi sub-

sektor furnitur berupa (1) Minimalisasi hambatan institusional; (2) Pengawasan

pembalakan liar, dan pembatasan eskpor

Kepala Kajian Makroekonomi dan Energi LPEM ( uka.wikarya@gmail.com )

Executive Summary

Indonesia’s manufacturing industry has the potential to act as leading sector in

strengthening the economy, because it is linked to other sectors and has significant value-

added. This study aims to (1) perform historical data analysis; and (2) make projections

over the chosen industrial indicators. The object of the study covers the industrial

subsectors of textile and textile products (Tekstil dan Produk Tekstil/TPT), footwear, and

furniture, in observation period of 1990-2012.

The three subsectors are faced with general issues including (1) lack of raw-

materials and auxiliary industries; (2) technological weaknesses; (3) exports that are

concentrated in some commodities and destination countries; and (4) discrepancy in

product standards. An increase in world’s GDP by 1% is expected to increase GDP in the

three subsectors by 0.08%. A rise in real per capita income by 1% domestically will

associate with 0.42% of growth.

Recommendations for TPT subsector include (1) empowerment of upstream industries,

such as fiber, rayon, polyester, and non-cotton natural fiber producers; (2) stricter rules of

machinery refurbishment; (3) provision for the support of investment funds; and (4)

assurance for uninterrupted supply of energy. Recommendations for footwear subsector

are (1) reevaluation of import ban on Chinese leather and assessment of the plan to

restrict exports of leather; and (2) consolidation of tripartite coordination.

Recommendations for furniture subsector are (1) minimization of institutional barriers; (2)

monitoring of illegal loggings and restricting exports of timber; (3) assessing the plan for

Exports Buffer Agency (Badan Penyangga Ekspor); and (4) improvement of labor

regulations.

LPEM FEUI Institute for Economic and Social Research

Faculty of Economics University of Indonesia

1 Director of LPEM (kadekartha@lpem-feui.org) 2 LPEM Head of Macroeconomic and Energy Studies (uka.wikarya@gmail.com)

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Editor :Jayu Pramudya

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LPEM FEUI L P E M P O L I C Y B R I E F

Pendahuluan

Pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia, termasuk

negara - negara berkembang diperkirakan akan

tumbuh lebih cepat di tahun 2014 dibanding

tahun 2014 (IMF, 2013). Indonesia yang

mencatatkan pertumbuhan 5,3% di tahun 2013

diharapkan mengalami percepatan pertum-

buhan menjadi 5,5% di tahun 2014. Harapan

tersebut masih dibayangi oleh berbagai

permasalahan seperti pelemahan nilai tukar

rupiah, serta peningkatan inflasi dan tingkat suku

bunga. Defisit neraca pembayaran akibat

melambungnya impor merupakan faktor yang

diyakini memberi sumbangsih signifikan dalam

memunculkan masalah tersebut. Praktis, pe-

nyeimbangan neraca perdagangan merupakan

keniscayaan agar proyeksi pertumbuhan

Indonesia urung terhambat. Upaya penguatan

ekspor sebenarnya menghadapi indikasi

tanggapan positif dari pelaku usaha, ditilik dari

pergeseran investasi luar negeri dari sektor tersier

dan investasi domestik dari sektor primer,

keduanya menuju sektor sekunder di industri

manufaktur. Industri manufaktur dalam hal ini

diyakini memiliki potensi untuk berperan sebagai

leading sector penguatan perekonomian, me-

ngingat sifatnya yang memiliki keterikatan luas

dengan sektor lain, dan memberikan nilai

tambah secara material bagi produk dengan

memanfaatkan faktor produksi secara optimal.

Penentuan keabsahan asumsi akan ber-

pengaruh langsung terhadap keakuratan

proyeksi. Faktor - faktor fluktuatif seperti trend,

siklus, dan pergerakan musiman akan turut

diamati sebagai faktor yang berpengaruh. Objek

kajian studi ini meliputi sub-sektor industri Tekstil

dan Produk Tekstil (TPT), alas kaki, serta furnitur.

Ketiga sub-sektor tersebut cenderung mendekati

karakteristik padat karya, sehingga akan

memberikan sumbangsih besar dalam

penciptaan lapangan pekerjaan jika dapat

dikelola secara efektif. Secara kuantitatif, ketiga

sub-sektor tersebut dianalisis berdasar data

historis kuartalan antara periode 1990 - 2012.

Lembaga Penyelidikan Ekonomi

dan Masyarakat

Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Indonesia

Permasalahan Umum

Meskipun memiliki kekhasan masing -

masing, ketiga sub-sektor cenderung dihadap

kan pada permasalahan umum industri nasional.

Secara internal, permasalahan tersebut meliputi

(1) Keterbatasan jumlah dan kemampuan industri

dasar yang diperlukan sebagai penyedia bahan

baku dan bahan penolong; (2) Kelemahan pada

penguasaan teknologi, aktivitas penelitian dan

pengembangan; (3) Keterpusatan ekspor pada

beberapa komoditas dan negara tujuan saja;

serta (4) Ketidaksesuaian standar produk dengan

ketentuan yang dipersyaratkan. Industri nasional

tengah menghadapi pula berbagai masalah

eksternal, meliputi (1) Ketidaktersediaan

infrastruktur transportasi dan energi; (2) Birokrasi

yang tidak berpihak dan insentif dari pemerintah

yang kurang menarik; (3) Ketiadaan lembaga

keuangan yang menyediakan pembiayaan

secara spesifik untuk masing - masing sub-sektor

dengan tingkat bunga bersaing; serta (4)

Inefektivitas komunikasi antara industri dengan

pusat penelitian dan pengembangan industrial.

Berdasarkan pengaruh kondisi makro

ekonomi, ditemukan bahwa nilai produksi industri

manufaktur lebih dipengaruhi oleh lingkungan

domestik dibanding lingkungan global. Untuk

setiap pertumbuhan Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB)

agregat sebesar 1%, PDB yang disumbangkan

industri manufaktur akan meningkat lebih pesat

sebesar 1,3%. Adapun ketika PDB dunia

meningkat sebesar 1%, pertumbuhan PDB industri

manufaktur diperkirakan hanya meningkat

sebesar 0,11%. Sub-sektor industri TPT, alas kaki,

dan furnitur memiliki keterkaitan yang lebih

inelastis terhadap PDB dunia, dibanding industri

manufaktur. Peningkatan 1% PDB dunia

diperkirakan hanya akan meningkatkan PDB sub-

sektor TPT, alas kaki, dan furnitur sebesar 0.08%.

Kenaikan pendapatan per kapita riil secara

domestik sebesar 1% juga hanya berasosiasi

dengan pertumbuhan PDB sub-sektor

bersangkutan sebesar 0,42%. Tugas mengawal

penguatan ketiga sub-sektor tersebut, secara

2 Textile and Textile Products, Footwear, and Furniture Industries: Could They Continue to Develop?

Introduction

World economic growth, including that of

developing countries, is predicted to grow faster in 2014

than it did in 2013 (IMF, 2013). Indonesia, which

recorded a 5.3% growth in 2013, is expected to

experience an acceleration of growth into 5.5% in 2014.

The expectation has been overshadowed by various

problems such as the weakening of rupiah, as well as

increases in inflation and interest rates. Balance of

payments deficit due to soaring imports is the factor

believed to have provided significant contribution to the

emergence of the problems. Practically, balancing the

trade balance becomes a necessity in order that

Indonesia’s growth projections will not be hampered.

Efforts to strengthen exports have actually faced an

indication of positive responses from businesses,

judging from the shift in foreign investment from

tertiary sector and in domestic investment from primary

sector, both move towards secondary sector in

manufacturing industry. Manufacturing industry in this

case is believed to possess the potentials to act as the

leading sector in economic strengthening, given its

nature of broad engagement with other sectors and

providing material value-added to products by optimally

utilizing factors of production.

Determining the validity of assumption will directly

influence the accuracy of projection. Fluctuating factors

such as trends, cycles, and seasonal movement will also

be observed as influential factors. The objects of this

study include the industrial subsectors of textile and

textile products (Tekstil dan Produk Tekstil/TPT),

footwear, and furniture. The three subsectors tend to

have characteristics close to labor-intensive, thus

providing enormous contribution to job creation if

effectively managed. Quantitatively, the three

subsectors are analyzed based on quarterly historical

data in the period between 1990-2012.

General Issues

Despite having distinct characteristics from one

another, all three subsectors tend to be faced by the

general issues in national industries. Internally, those

issues cover (1) limited number and capacity of basic

industries needed as providers of raw and auxiliary

materials; (2) weaknesses in the mastery of technology

and research and development activities; (3) exports

that are concentrated only in some commodities and

destination countries; and (4) discrepancy between

product standards and required qualifications. The

national industries are also facing various external

issues, including (1) unavailability of transport and

energy infrastructure; (2) unsupportive bureaucracy and

unattractive incentives from the government; (3)

absence of financial institutions which provide specific

financing for each subsector with a competitive interest

rate; and (4) ineffective communication between

industries and industrial research-and-development

centers.

Based on the influence of macroeconomic conditions, it

is found that production value of manufacturing

industry is more affected by domestic environment than

it is by global environment. For every 1% growth in

aggregate Growth Domestic Product (GDP), GDP

contributed by manufacturing industry will grow more

rapidly by 1.3%. As for when the world GDP grows by

1%, manufacturing industry’s GDP growth is predicted

to increase by only 0.11%. The industrial subsectors of

TPT, footwear, and furniture have a more inelastic

relationship to world GDP compared to manufacturing

industry. 1% increase in world GDP is estimated to only

increase the GDP of TPT, footwear, and furniture

subsectors by 0.08%. A rise in real per capita income by

1% domestically also associates with only 0.42% GDP

growth in the respective subsector. The task to guard

the strengthening of the three subsectors will

hypothetically be more challenging compared to that of

manufacturing industry in general.

LPEM FEUI Institute for Economic and Social Research

Faculty of Economics University of Indonesia

LPEM FEUI L P E M P O L I C Y B R I E F

lhipotetis akan lebih menantang dibanding

industri manufaktur secara umum.

Potensi Sub-Sektor TPT

Sub-sektor industri TPT dapat dibedakan

atas industri hulu, antara, dan hilir. Secara internal,

sub-sektor ini memiliki kekuatan berupa (1)

Ketersediaan tenaga kerja yang tumbuh rata -

rata 1,6% per tahun mengingat tidak diper-

lukannya keterampilan khusus; (2) Keandalan

kualitas, seperti dicontohkan produk poliester;

serta (3) Penerapa kewajiban peremajaan mesin

setiap 20 tahun sekali. Kelemahan sub-sektor ini

meliputi (1) Kete-rtinggalan upaya penelitian dan

pengem-bangan yang idealnya memperoleh

pendanaan antara 1,7% - 3,6% dari PDB, (2)

Tingginya harga jual akibat melambungnya

biaya produksi; (3) Mahalnya biaya energi listrik

dan bahan bakar; serta (4) Infrastruktur

pelabuhan yang tidak mendukung peningkatan

frekuensi perdaga-ngan dan justru mencari laba

sendiri.

Dikaitkan dengan situasi eksternal, sub-

sektor TPT memiliki oportunitas berupa (1)

Pertumbuhan basis konsumen kelas menengah

domestik; serta (2) Peniadaan hambatan

perdagangan internasional berupa tarif maupun

non-tarif. Ancaman yang dihadapi sub-sektor TPT

meliputi (1) Ketatnya persaingan dengan negara

pengekspor lain yang memiliki upah buruh lebih

rendah seperti Vietnam dan Bangladesh; (2)

Majunya teknoogi produksi yang dimiliki negara

pesaing seperti Korea Selatan sehingga mudah

mengkoordinasikan rantai produksi secara

berkesinambungan; (3) Sorotan atas praktik

beberapa perusahaan yang secara tidak

bertanggung jawab mengabaikan pengolahan

limbah sehingga memunculkan sikap apati

masyarakat; serta (4) Membanjirnya komoditas

TPT ilegal yang dipasarkan dengan harga

terjangkau, seperti yang berasal dari Tiongkok.

Mempertimbangkan kondisi yang telah

dideskripsikan, berdasar skenario pesimistis, sub-

sektor TPT bagian hulu diproyeksikan mampu

mencatatkan pertumbuhan produksi 0,61% dan

Lembaga Penyelidikan Ekonomi

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ekspor 17,96%. Produksi sub-sektor TPT bagian

antara diproyeksikan tumbuh lebih pesat sebesar

0,65% namun ekspor tumbuh jauh lebih lambat

hanya sebesar 2,25%. Produksi sub-sektor TPT

bagian hilir diproyeksikan tumbuh jauh

mengungguli kedua bagian terdahulu dengan

kisaran 11,43% dan ekspor 7,96%.

Sementara itu, berdasarkan skenario

moderat, pertumbuhan produksi tertinggi

diperkirakan akan diraih oleh sub-sektor TPT

bagian hilir sebesar 12,61%, kemudian antara

3,81% dan hulu 1,78%. Urutan untuk skenario

optimistis masih sama dengan nilai 13,57%, 7,04%,

dan 2,56%. Indikator ekspor menunjukkan hasil

berbeda di mana untuk skenario moderat

pertumbuhan terpesat diperkirakan dicapai oleh

sub-sektor TPT bagian hulu sebesar 22,44%, lalu hilir

9,79% dan antara 6,65%. Urutan serupa dalam

skenario optimistis diperkirakan mencatatkan nilai

27,26%, 11,55%, dan 11,46%.

Penguatan industrial yang efektif bukan

tidak mungkin dapat memacu pertumbuhan

produksi dan ekspor sub-sektor TPT. Studi ini

merekomendasikan ditempuhnya langkah

perbaikan yang meliputi (1) Pemberdayaan

secara fokus bagi bagian hulu, seperti bagi

produsen fiber, rayon, poliester, dan serat alam

berbahan non-kapas; (2) Pengetatan aturan

peremajaan mesin, khususnya bagi mesin

pemintalan, tenun, rajut, dan garmen; (3)

Penyediaan dukungan dana investasi; serta (4)

Penjaminan kesinambungan pasokan energi

memanfaatkan sumber alternatif seperti batu

bara untuk menggantikan minyak dan gas.

Potensi Sub-Sektor Alas Kaki

Sub-sektor industri alas kaki diklasifikasikan

menjadi bagian hulu dan hilir. Secara internal,

sub-sektor tersebut memiliki kekuatan berupa

berlimpahnya jumlah dan rendahnya turnover

tenaga kerja. Kelemahan yang dimiliki antara lain

meliputi (1) Keterbatasan pasokan bahan baku,

khususnya berupa kulit sapi yang hampir 75%

kebutuhannya dipenuhi melalui impor; (2)

Peningkatan upah buruh akibat penyesuaian

Textile and Textile Products, Footwear, and Furniture Industries: Could They Continue to Develop? 3

Potentials of TPT Subsector

The industrial subsector of TPT can be

distinguished into upstream, midstream, and

downstream industries. Internally, this subsector has

some strengths in the form of (1) availability of labor

that grows by an average of 1.6% per year considering

no need for special skills; (2) reliability of quality, as

exemplified by polyester products; and (3)

implementation of obligatory machinery refurbishment

once every 20 years. Weaknesses of the subsector

include (1) underdevelopment of research and

development efforts which ideally obtain 1.7%-3.6%

from GDP in funding; (2) high selling prices because of

soaring production cost; (3) high cost of electricity and

fuel; and (4) port infrastructure that does not support

the increasing frequency of trade and seeks its own

profit instead.

Linked to external situation, TPT subsector has

opportunities in the form of (1) growing domestic

middle-class consumer base; and (2) elimination of

barriers to international trade in the form of tariff as

well as non-tariff. Threats faced by TPT subsector

include (1) intense competition with other exporting

countries that have lower labor cost such as Vietnam

and Bangladesh; (2) advanced production technology

owned by competitor countries such as South Korea

which facilitates the continuous coordination of

production chain; (3) highlights on some companies’

practices which irresponsibly ignore the waste

management, which give rise to apathetic public

attitudes; and (4) an influx of illegal TPT commodities

marketed at affordable prices, such as those originated

from China.

Considering the conditions already described,

based on pessimistic scenario, the upstream part of TPT

subsector is projected to be able to record 0.61%

growth in production and 17.96% in exports. Production

of midstream TPT subsector is projected to grow more

rapidly by 0.65%, but exports grow much more slowly

by only 2.25%. Production of downstream TPT

subsector is projected to grow much more rapidly at

11.43%, outperforming the previous two parts, and

exports at 7.96%.

Meanwhile, based on moderate scenario, the

highest production growth is expected to be achieved

by downstream TPT subsector at 12.61%, followed by

midstream at 3.81% and upstream at 1.78%. The

sequence for optimistic scenario is still the same with

the value at 13.57%, 7.04%, and 2.56%. The exports

indicator shows different results where, in moderate

scenario, the fastest growth is expected to be achieved

by upstream TPT subsector at 22.44%, followed by

downstream at 9.79% and midstream by 6.65%. Similar

sequence in optimistic scenario is expected to record

the value at 27.26%, 11.55%, and 11.46%.

An effective industrial strengthening is not unlikely to

stimulate production and exports growth in TPT

subsector. This study recommends to go through some

corrective measures which include (1) a focus on

empowering the upstream part, such as for producers

of fiber, rayon, polyester, and non-cotton natural fiber;

(2) stricter rules of machinery refurbishment, especially

for spinning machines, looms, knitters, and garment

machines; (3) provision for the support of investment

funds; and (4) assurance for uninterrupted supply of

energy by utilizing alternative sources, such as coal, to

replace oil and gas.

Potentials of Footwear Subsector

The industrial subsector of footwear is classified

into upstream and downstream. Internally, the

subsector has as its strengths an abundant amount and

low turnover of labors. Weaknesses include (1) limited

supply of raw materials, especially cowhide which 75%

of the needs are met through import; (2) increased

labor cost due to the adjustment in minimum wage; (3)

high logistics cost; and (4) regional licensing and

taxation requirements that have poor legal certainty.

Externally, this subsector actually has extensive market

potentials, but it is currently facing serious challenges

from competitors, such as China.

Based on the situation, the downstream part of

footwear subsector is projected to grow by double digits

in 2014 in a variety of scenarios. Production growth is

projected at 16.94%, 19.89%, and 21.08% for

pessimistic, moderate, and optimistic scenarios

respectively. Increases in exports are relatively less

LPEM FEUI Institute for Economic and Social Research

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upah minimum; (3) Tingginya biaya logistik; serta

(4) Ketentuan perizinan dan perpajakan daerah

yang memiliki kepastian hukum buruk. Secara

eskternal, sub-sektor ini sebenarnya memiliki

potensi pasar yang luas namun tengah

dihadapkan pada tantangan serius dari pesaing

seperti Tiongkok.

Berdasar keadaan tersebut, sub-sektor

alas kaki bagian hilir diproyeksikan mampu

tumbuh hingga dua digit di tahun 2014 dalam

beragam skenario. Pertumbuhan produksi

diproyeksikan bernilai 16,94%, 19,89%, dan 21,08%

terurut untuk skenario pesimistis, moderat, dan

optimistis. Peningkatan ekspor relatif lebih tidak

konsisten tanpa terfluktuasi oleh perubahan

asumsi, yaitu sebesar 18,03%, 18,78%, dan 19,51%

untuk urutan skenario yang sama. Hal tersebut

menandakan bahwa sub-sektor alas kaki dapat

berperan sebagai salah satu kontributor per-

tumbuhan industrial yang konsisten, terlepas dari

situasi eksternal. Proyeksi tersebut didasarkan atas

asumsi pertumbuhan PDB domestik sebesar 5,3%,

5,6%, dan 6,3%, peningkatan PDB dunia sebesar

3,6%, 3,8%, dan 4%, serta kenaikan harga ekspor

sebesar (5%), 0%, dan 5% seluruhnya terurut untuk

skenario pesimistis, moderat, dan optimistis.

Langkah korektif yang mendesak untuk dite-

rapkan pemerintah adalah (1) Peninjauan

kembali larangan impor kulit dari Tiongkok dan

pengkajian wacana pembatasan ekspor kulit

guna memastikan kesinambungan pasokan;

serta (2) Pemantapan koordinasi tripartit

sehingga keputusan dalam hubungan industrial

seperti pengupahan dapat memperhatikan

setiap pemangku kepentingan, termasuk

pengusaha.

Potensi Sub-Sektor Furnitur

Sub-sektor furnitur, secara internal memiliki

kekuatan antara lain berupa (1) Keberlimpahan

bahan baku kayu dan rotan, serta tenaga kerja

terampil; serta (2) Keunikan dan konsistensi

kualitas produk. Kelemahan yang dihadapi

termasuk (1) Inefisiensi dan produktivitas yang

Lembaga Penyelidikan Ekonomi

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Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Indonesia

rendah dalam produksi; (2) Kekurangmampuan

perajin menciptakan nilai tambah di tahap

desain dan penyelesaian produk; (3) Ketiadaan

standardisasi produk; serta (4) Keterbatasan

target pasar yang potensial. Secara eksternal,

sub-sektor furnitur memiliki peluang dari (1)

Permintaan dari pasar tradisional seperti Eropa

dan Amerika yang masih terus mengalir; serta (2)

Apresiasi bagi produk yang khususnya

berkategori medium dan high end. Tantangan

terbesar yang dihadapi sub-sektor furnitur

berkaitan dengan bahan baku, khususnya

tentang keberadaan boikot terhadap kayu

tropis, praktik pembalakan liar yang merajalela,

pungutan pengurusan Sistem Verifikasi Legalitas

Kayu (SVLK) yang tidak murah; serta wacana

legalisasi ekspor kayu dalam bentuk log yang

berisiko mengurangi pasokan atau meningkat-

kan harga bahan baku bagi sub-sektor furnitur.

Sub-sektor furnitur diprediksikan memiliki

pertumbuhan produksi sebesar 9,2%, 13%, dan

17,7% masing - masing untuk skenario pesimistis,

moderat, dan pesimistis, dengan peningkatan

ekspor diekspektasikan sebesar 3,2%, 10,5%, dan

18,7%. Skenario tersebut secara terurut

berlandaskan pada asumsi pertumbuhan PDB

nasional sebesar 5,3%, 5,6%, dan 6,3%,

peningkatan PDB dunia sebesar 3,6%, 3,8%, dan

4%, serta kenaikan harga ekspor sebesar (5%), 0%,

dan 5%.

Studi ini mengajukan rekomendasi terkait

sub-sektor furnitur berupa (1) Minimalisasi ham-

batan institusional guna mengundang investasi;

(2) Pengamanan ketersediaan bahan baku

melalui pengawasan pembalakan liar, dispensasi

pungutan yang berlebihan, dan pembatasan

eskpor kayu; (3) Pengupayaan perluasan pasar

luar negeri misalnya dengan dukungan Badan

Penyangga Ekspor; serta (4) Penetapan regulasi

ketenagakerjaan yang memungkinkan pening-

katan produktivitas.

Kesimpulan

Industri manufaktur yang terdiri dari

beragam sub-sektor merupakan industri yang

4 Textile and Textile Products, Footwear, and Furniture Industries: Could They Continue to Develop?

consistent without fluctuated by changes in assumption,

i.e. at 18.03%, 18.78%, and 19.51% for the same

sequence of scenarios. It indicates that footwear

subsector could act as one of the consistent

contributors to industrial growth, regardless of external

circumstances. The projection is based on the

assumption of domestic GDP growth at 5.3%, 5.6%, and

6.3%; world GDP increase by 3.6%, 3.8%, and 4%; and

increases in exports prices by (5%), 0%, and 5% for

pessimistic, moderate, and optimistic scenarios

respectively. The urgent corrective measures to be

implemented by the government include (1)

reevaluation of import ban on Chinese leather and

assessment of the plan to restrict exports of leather in

order to ensure continuity of supply; and (2)

consolidation of tripartite coordination, so that the

decisions in industrial relations, such as remuneration,

could pay attention to every stakeholder, including

business owners.

Potentials of Furniture Subsector

Furniture subsector has several strengths

internally which include (1) an abundance of wood and

rattan for raw materials, as well as skilled labors; and (2)

the uniqueness and consistency of product quality.

Weaknesses encountered include (1) inefficiency and

low productivity in production; (2) inadequate

competence of craftsmen in value-added creation in

design and product-finishing phases; (3) absence of

product standardization; and (4) lack of potential

market targets. Externally, furniture subsector obtains

its opportunities from (1) demand from traditional

markets, such as Europe and America, which continues

to flow; and (2) appreciation for products, especially in

medium and high-end categories. The biggest

challenges that furniture subsector faces are related to

raw materials, especially regarding the existing boycotts

of tropical timber, widespread practices of illegal

logging, charge in implementing Timber Legality

Assurance System (Sistem Verifikasi Legalitas

Kayu/SVLK) which is not small; as well as reports on the

legalization of the exports of timber in the form of logs

which would run the risk of diminishing the supply or

increasing the price of raw materials for furniture

subsector.

Furniture subsector is predicted to perform a

growth in production by 9.2%, 13%, and 17.7%

respectively for pessimistic, moderate, and optimistic

Furniture subsector is predicted to perform a

growth in production by 9.2%, 13%, and 17.7%

respectively for pessimistic, moderate, and optimistic

scenarios, with expected increases in exports by 3.2%,

10.5%, and 18.7%. The respective scenarios are based

on the assumption of national GDP growth at 5.3%,

5.6%, and 6.3%; world GDP increase by 3.6%, 3.8%, and

4%; as well as increases in exports prices by (5%), 0%,

and 5%.

The study proposes several recommendations regarding

furniture subsector in the form of (1) minimization of

institutional barriers to attract investment; (2) securing

the availability of raw materials through monitoring of

illegal loggings, exemption of excessive charges, and by

restricting exports of timber; (3) efforts to expand the

overseas market, for example by the support of Exports

Buffer Agency (Badan Penyangga Ekspor); and (4)

provision for labor regulations that enable productivity

improvement.

Conclusion

Manufacturing industry, which consists of diverse

subsectors, is heterogeneous; thus, changes in external

factors can produce different effects for each subsector.

Potentials of each subsector are also diverse, where

some are promising enough to be directed as exports

booster while others lack similar potentials. Therefore,

all forms of treatment need to be mapped out so that

the combined results of any intervention in

manufacturing industry could proportionately reach

every targeted indicator. As long as the preconditions

are met, there is no reason for the TPT, footwear, and

furniture subsectors to not develop as the leading

sectors in Indonesian economy.

Bibliography

Outlook Industri Tekstil dan Produk Tekstil, Alas Kaki,

dan Furnitur

LPEM FEUI Institute for Economic and Social Research

Faculty of Economics University of Indonesia