Loyalty, caution fragileThe Mystery of the electric carobservatoirecetelem.com/wp-content/themes/obs-cetelem-V3/...2019/09/25 · Portugal, United Kingdom and Turkey. In total, 16

1

Loyalty, caution fragile The Mystery of

the electric car

Press Conference

Paris, September 25th, 2018

2 2

Louis Michel Duray

Automotive Financial Services Director

BNP Paribas Personal Finance

3 3

Flavien Neuvy

Director of L’Observatoire Cetelem

4 4

Methodology

The economic and marketing analyses, as well as the forecasts, were conducted in partnership with C-Ways (www.c-

ways.com), a survey and consulting firm that specialises in Anticipation Marketing.

The field work of the quantitative consumer survey was steered by Harris Interactive during the months of June and July

2018 in South Africa, Germany, Belgium, Brazil, China, Spain, United States, France, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Norway, Poland,

Portugal, United Kingdom and Turkey. In total, 16 countries and more than 10,600 individuals were interviewed online (CAWI

collection method). These individuals aged 18 to 65 come from national samples that are representative of each country. The

quota method was employed to ensure that the sample was representative (gender, age). 3,000 interviews were conducted

in France and 500 in each of the other countries.

Norway has therefore been included for the first time in l’Observatoire Cetelem de l’Automobile. Given that the 2019 topic

concerns electric vehicles, the survey had to question the country in the world that is most concerned by the subject in terms

of its market share of electric vehicles, which amounted to 21% of its vehicle sales in 2017.

A qualitative study – from which are extracted the verbatim accounts made during the study – was added to

complement the programme in France. Six focus groups on the electric vehicle were organised by Harris Interactive in Paris,

Lyon and Bordeaux in July 2018.

Country codes:

South Africa (ZA), Germany (DE), Belgium (BE), Brazil (BR), China (CN), Spain (ES), United States (US), France (FR), Italy

(IT), Japan (JP), Mexico (MX), Norway (NW), Poland (PL), Portugal (PT), United Kingdom (UK), Turkey (TR).

5 5

CONTENTS Is the French market leading the way?

Electric car: current situation

The perfect car... on paper

Obstacles

Conclusion

6

Is the French market leading the way?

7 7

40

60

80

100

2017 2018 2019 2020

+2.3% 4 2% 2%

97 million LVs sold

in 2018

3% average annual growth rate between

2000 and 2017

Global car sales are continuing their strong and

steady growth

Sources: Observatoire Cetelem de l’Automobile, C-Ways forecasts, OICA

With a 2% increase in 2019 and 2020, the market will reach 100 million units

Worldwide sales of light vehicles (PV + LGV) (millions)

8 8

In Europe, the markets have returned to their previous

high levels

Sources: Observatoire Cetelem de l’Automobile, C-Ways forecasts, OICA

The upward phase of the cycle is probably over

10 000

11 000

12 000

13 000

14 000

15 000

16 000

17 000

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Sales of private vehicles (PV) in Europe

9 9

Bodywork contours are changing in Europe

Source: Observatoire Cetelem de l’Automobile, C-Ways according to ACEA

Unstoppable growth of the SUV (more expensive and more thirsty, etc.)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Saloons Estates Coupés & Convertibles MPV SUV

Bodywork market share in Western Europe

10 10

France is also at record levels

(excluding bonus periods)

Source: Observatoire Cetelem de l’Automobile, C-Ways forecasts, SIV

And it should also experience a correction phase. For households as well as for companies

1530 1401 1291 1039 959 939

4.8% 985

0.9% 994

2.5 1,019

5% 1,070

-4.2% 1,025

-2.4% 1,000

738 811 875

820 794 825

9.2% 901

9.9% 990

7.1% 1,060

3.8% 1,100

-5.0% 1,045

-2.5% 1,019

2303 2251 2204

1897 1788 1795

6.8% 1917

5.1% 2015

4.7% 2111

4.3% 2200

-3.5% 2100

-3.5% 2050

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f

Ménages Entreprises TT

Sales of private cars in France in thousands

11 11

The petrol/diesel reversal is continuing

Source: Observatoire Cetelem de l’Automobile, SIV, C-Ways forecasts

The big winners: petrol and hybrid

Meanwhile, the EV is still taking its time to really take off

Petrol – Diesel market shares Market shares by energy (%)

27 30

33

39 44

48 54

57 59

73 68

64

57 52

47

40 36

32

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f2019f2020f

Petrol Diesel

33% 39% 44% 48% 54% 56% 58%

64% 57% 52% 47% 40% 36% 32%

2% 3% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 3%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f

Petrol Diesel Hybrid EV

12 12

Worldwide sales of rechargeable cars (EVs and rechargeable hybrids)

Upswing in progress for the electric vehicle sector

worldwide

Source: Observatoire Cetelem de l’Automobile, C-Ways according to Blomberg

China, the undisputed leader…

13 13

Electric cars: the current situation

14 14


Source: IEA + EAFO (2017)

2 2 3 5 7 14 60 150

220

400

750

1240

1980

1 29 161

304

489

742

1129

rechargeable hybrid car battery electric car

20 50 100 150 200

10 10 15 50 25 100

200

400

750

1100

2000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Public charging points - slow Public charging points - fast

Private charging points

Electric car sales around the world (in

thousands of cars)

Change in the number of charging points

in the world, 2010-2016

(in thousands)

2 2 3 5 7 14 61 179 381 704 1,239 1,982 3,109

Total number

15 15


Source: International Energy Agency, IFP EN

225

15

6

-1

-1

-2

-2

-2

-2

-4

-8

-10

-10

-25

-65

-100

China

United States

India

South Korea

South Africa

United Kingdom

Germany

Portugal

Italy

Spain

Netherlands

Canada

Sweden

Japan

France

Norway180

110

75

60

12

75

95

110

132

Impact on the climate of electric cars by

country in 2015

(in thousands of t CO2e)

CO2 emissions from well-to-wheel

(WTW) (in g/km WTW)

Electric vehicle

(100% coal)

Electric vehicle

(Poland mix)

Electric vehicle

(Germany mix)

Electric vehicle

(EU mix)

Electric vehicle

(France mix)

Natural gas hybrid

Diesel hybrid

Petrol hybrid engine

Diesel combustion engine

16 16


MANUFACTURERS' DECLARED OBJECTIVES IN

TERMS OF ELECTRIC VOLUMES - 2017

BMW 100,000 EV sales in 2017

15 to 25% of BMW Group sales by 2025

Chevrolet (GM) 30,000 annual EV sales by 2017

Chinese manufacturers 4.52 million annual EV sales by 2020

Daimler 100,000 annual EV sales by 2020

Ford 13 new EV models by 2020

Honda Two-thirds of sales in 2030 will be electric

vehicles (including hybrid, plug-in hybrid,

electric and "fuel cell" vehicles) Honda

(including hybrid, plug-in hybrid, electric and

"fuel cell" vehicles)

Renault–Nissan 1.5 million electric vehicles sold in 2020

(total sales)

Tesla 500,000 annual sales of EVs within 2 years,

1 million annual sales of EVs by 2020

Volkswagen 2 to 3 million annual EV sales by 2025

Volvo 1 million electric vehicles sold in 2025 (total

sales)

MANUFACTURERS' DECLARED OBJECTIVES IN TERMS OF ELECTRIC VOLUMES

- 2017

China

• Exemption from acquisition taxes and indirect taxes

from 5,100 to 8,700 USD.

• Local subsidies, capped at 50% of the amount

granted by the state subsidies.

• Starting in 2017, 20% reduction in 2016 subsidies,

with the option to adjust this policy according to the

impact on the market until 2020.

• In 7 major urban centres, the restrictions on electric

vehicle number plates have been lifted.

• Locally, bus lanes may be used except at peak times,

and the tolls and parking are free.

France

• No-claims bonus model based on CO2 emitted per

km: €6,300 no-claims bonus for EVs with a battery

and €1,000 for plug-in hybrid vehicles, up to €10,000

for EVs with a battery and €3,500 for plug-in hybrid

vehicles when replacing an old diesel vehicle.

• Tax credit for companies buying electric cars.

• Exemption from taxes on electric and hydrogen

vehicles.

• Starting in 2017, 50% of the government's fleet of

vehicles is to be replaced by electric vehicles.

Germany

• €4,000 discount on the purchase of a battery EV and

€3,000 discount on plug-in hybrid vehicles, for up to

400,000 vehicles until 2020 or €600 m of subsidies.

• The car manufacturers will finance 50% of the subsidy,

while the government will finance the remaining 50%.

• Exemption from road tax for 10 years and then for 5 years

from 2021.

• Reduction in taxes on company vehicles.

• Locally, free parking and access to bus lanes

Japan

• Purchase subsidies according to the battery capacity (e.g.

the Nissan Leaf 30 kWh battery: 3,000 USD).

• Locally, exemption from paying tolls and access to

restricted traffic lanes.

Norway

• Exemption on the purchase tax: 11,600 USD).

• Exemption from VAT on EVs with a battery (25% of the

price of the vehicle before tax), including for EVs with a

leased battery. Purchase discount on plug-in hybrid

vehicles.

• Exemption from road tax, tolls and ferry charges.

• Continuation of this policy on EVs with a battery until 2020.

• Since 2016, the free parking measures for electric vehicles

have been managed by the town halls.

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THE TIME

FOR A RENAISSANCE 2


18 18


Source: L’Observatoire Cetelem

Do you believe in the future of the electric vehicle?

% positive answers

73% 68%

73% 75%

89% 90% 92%

77%

95%

73%

83% 89%

94% 97% 97% 92%

JP FR DE UK US NO CN PL PT TR MX IT ES ZA BE BR

16-country

average 85%

19 19



In your opinion, are EVs only for people who live in big cities?

% positive answers

68%

86%

65%

54%

83%

66%

59% 62%

67% 62%

74% 69%

63% 69% 70%

64%


16-country

average 68%

51 km/day

20 20



71%

66%

83%

76%

65%

69%

83%

77% 77% 79%

72%

83%

87%

72%

85% 86%

In your opinion, is the statement, "it is economical

to run", apt or inapt when describing a fully

electric vehicle?

Sum of "apt" and "very apt" answers in %

69%

56%

70% 66%

64%

76%

66%

54%

72% 67%

58%

73% 75%

73% 72%

78%

In your opinion, is the statement, "it requires less

maintenance than a fuel-powered vehicle", apt or

inapt when describing a fully electric vehicle?



16-country

average 77% 16-country

average 68%


21 21



84% 85% 87%

84%

89%

93% 94%

78%

91% 88%

90% 90%

94% 93% 93% 94%

In your opinion, is the statement, "it is eco-friendly (no

pollution in cities)", apt or inapt when describing a fully

electric vehicle?


88%

81%

89%

86%

93% 94% 94%

85%

90%

85% 81%

92% 88%

96% 93% 92%

Do you agree with the following proposal: "The

massive use of electric vehicles in dense urban areas

will significantly reduce pollution (fine particles,

nitrogen oxides, etc.)?”



16-country


average 89%


22 22



81% 80% 83%

80%

89% 86%

88%

71%

89%

80% 80%

92% 90% 90%

92%

89%

In your opinion, is the statement, "does this

project a positive (modern, responsible) image",

apt or inapt when describing a fully electric

vehicle? Sum of "apt" and "very apt" answers in %

85%

91%

83% 84%

83% 86%

87%

81%

89%

80%

83%

89% 86%

90% 89%

84%

In your opinion, is the statement, "it is pleasant to

drive and runs smoothly", apt or inapt when

describing a fully electric vehicle?



16-country


average 86%


23

UNQUESTIONABLY

POPULAR 3

Obstacles

24 24

Obstacles


Mileage profile compatible with the EV

COST-EFFECTIVE PORTION

OF THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE

ANNUAL MILEAGE

TOO LOW

TO COVER THE

EXTRA COST OF AN EV

DAILY MILEAGE TOO HIGH,

EV RANGE NOT LONG ENOUGH

Daily

mile

age

Annual mileage

25 25

4 9

15

20 7

30

14

6 11

12

14 11

20

27

4

9

15

20 7

30

14

12

9

13 7 16

26

16

2

10

17

19 10 16

26

3

9

15

14 15 15

29

1 7

10

12

18 41

12

1 4 9 10

19 38

21

5

14

18

14 13 22

13

8

16

19 16

15

15

11

1 4 8 10

14 38

24

Obstacles

What minimum range would you find acceptable in order to buy a fully electric

vehicle?

In %

4

11

15

15 15

29

9

TR

PL

IT

FR

9

20

24 18

9

14

6

MX

US

ES

DE

4

10

19

18 19

22

8

BR

JP

PT

UK

4

10

19

18 19

22

8

CN

ZA

NW

BE

less than 100 km Between 100 and

199 km

Between 200 and

299 km Between 300 and

399 km

Between 400 and

499 km

500 km or more

You would not be

prepared to buy it

QUOTES

from motorists

"It's scary to think that on

leaving a city, you get 300

km and then, nothing. If

you are off the beaten

track, where can you

recharge?”

"Driving with the heating

switched off at a

temperature of -9°C, or

reducing the range by 40

km because the heating,

ventilation, lights and

wipers are on.”

4 5 13

11 14 32

21

16-country

average

5

10

15

15 14

25

17


26 26

Obstacles


Would you say there are enough public charging stations for electric vehicles on the

roads?

Answers in %

14% 19%

24% 18%

29%

18% 16%

31%

22% 29%

17%

28% 22%

28% 32%

41%

86% 81%

76% 82%

71%

82% 84%

69%

78% 71%

83%

72% 78%

72% 68%

59%

Yes No


16-country

average 24% 76%

"In my building, I have no way of

charging a car. It's a city car that is not

made for those who live in the city.

27 27

Obstacles


In your opinion, is the statement, "the range of available models is still small", apt or

inapt when describing fully electric vehicles?


87% 89% 87% 87% 89%

85% 84%

64%

90%

80%

92%

85%

91% 86%

89% 87%


16-country

average 86%

28 28

Obstacles


In your opinion, is the statement, "it is more expensive to buy", apt or inapt when

describing a fully electric vehicle?


91% 91% 87%

93% 91% 90% 87%

64%

91%

84%

92% 87% 86%

91% 88%

65%


16-country

average 86%

29 29

17

42 18

20

4 CN

Obstacles


In your opinion, if we take into account all the costs (buying and running) and the

resale price, does an EV now cost more or less than a fuel-powered vehicle?

Answers in %

35

38

17

8

2

16-country average

34

47

14 4 1

IT

42

36

20 2 1

DE

35

36

21

5 2

UK

47

30

17 5 2

BE

33

44

18 4 2

ES

37

40

17 5 1

FR

42

43

8 6 1

BR

49 36

7 6 2

PT

13

27 29

24

6

NW

50

30

17

3 PL

31

33

25

10

2 US

27

42

22

8

2 JP

45

32

10 10

3 ZA

35

43

15 5

1 MX

29

47

9 11 3

TR

Much more

expensive A bit more expensive The same

price A bit cheaper Much cheaper

30 30

Obstacles


To your knowledge, are there any subsidies or incentives when buying an electric

vehicle?

Answers in %

55%

46%

26%

33% 34%

23%

32%

38%

26% 28% 28%

17%

28%

15%

23%

65%

9%

21%

27%

18%

10% 14%

19%

14% 18% 18% 17%

31%

24% 27%

31%

8%

35% 33%

48% 49%

56%

63%

50% 47%

56% 54% 55%

52% 48%

58%

46%

27%

Yes No You don’t know


16-country

average 32% 19% 49%

31 31

16-country

average 70% 30%

Obstacles


Still concerning electric vehicles, would you say that you have enough information at

your disposal?

Answers in %

59% 61%

70% 71%

64%

74% 73%

60%

71% 67%

83%

77% 75% 73% 73% 72%

41% 39%

30% 29%

36%

26% 27%

40%

29% 33%

17%

23% 25% 27% 27% 28%


No Yes

32 32

Obstacles


In your opinion, is the statement, "it is a trend that will pass", apt or inapt when

describing fully electric vehicles?



16-country

average 37%

50%

45% 44% 48%

27% 26%

21%

40%

34%

41% 38%

40%

27% 28% 30%

54%

33 33

Conclusion

34 34

Conclusion: a car of the future...

- Motorists believe in the future of the electric car.

- They view it in a positive light: modern, eco-friendly

- Many new models will arrive on the market.

- The public authorities are backing the development of the electric car massively:

incentives to buy an EV, announcements banning certain fuel-powered vehicles.

- Oil prices that can speed up the growth of EV sales.

35 35

Conclusion: a car of the future... with an uncertain future.

- For motorists, buying an electric car means paying more for less autonomy.

- 1 in 2 people in France believe that the electric car is a "fashion trend" that will

pass.

- 70% of motorists would like more information about EVs. This thirst exposes a

great lack of knowledge about the electric car.

- Oil prices that can slow the growth of EV sales.

36 36

Thank you for reading

Q & A

@obs_cetelem facebook: observatoirecetelem

Documents

Loyalty, caution fragileThe Mystery of the electric carobservatoirecetelem.com/wp-content/themes/obs-cetelem-V3/...2019/09/25 · Portugal, United Kingdom and Turkey. In total, 16