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How Can Minnesota Stay Above Average?
Louis D. Johnston
Presentation at theRegional Economic Development (RED) Group Forum
“Designing the Future: What's the Next Minnesota Going to Look Like”
June 23, 2010
Nobel Laureate, 1976
Nobel Laureate, 1982
Close friends
''Milton's out to save the world and I'm out to understand it.''
George Stigler
NY Times, October 21, 1982
Quick overview:
• Economic growth in Minnesota since World War II: The data
• Economic theory: The sources of economic growth
• Economic policy: what role for policy in promoting and sustaining economic growth?
Economic growth in Minnesota since World War II: The data
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
Rel
ativ
e to
U.S
. ave
rage
Year
Income per person: by region, relative to the U.S. average
Minnesota
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
Rel
ativ
e to
U.S
. ave
rage
Year
Income per person: by region, relative to the U.S. average
Minnesota
Great Lakes
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
Rel
ativ
e to
U.S
. ave
rage
Year
Income per person: by region, relative to the U.S. average
Minnesota
Great Lakes
Plains
Economic theory:Output per person (Per capita income)
output per person = participation rate · output per worker
Growth of participation
rate
Growth of output per
worker
Growth of per capita income
Economic theory:Growth of per capita income
Economic theory:Growth of output per worker
Growth of resources
per worker
Growth of total factor productivity
Growth of output per
worker
Growth of participation
rate
Growth of resources per
worker
Growth of total factor productivity
Growth of per capita
income
Economic theory:Growth of per capita income
Economic theory:Two types of growth
• Catch-up growth• Endogenous growth
Economic theory:Catch-up growth
Total factor productivity is lower than other
areas
Total factor productivity can be increased by adopting institutions
and technologies from leading areas
Rapid growth of participation rate
Rapid growth of resources per worker
Adoption and improvement of
existing institutions and technologies
Growth of per capita
income
Economic theory:Catch-up growth
Minnesota, 1950s through 2000s:Catch-up growth
• Higher-than-average growth in participation rate- Married women with children- Young people from surrounding
states
Minnesota, 1950s through 2000s: Catch-up growth
• Higher-than-average growth inresources per worker Human capital Physical capital
Minnesota, 1950s through 2000s: Catch-up growth
• Increases in human capital Education: grew faster than national
averageoHigh school graduation rates roseoRates of post-secondary education
attendance rose
Minnesota, 1950s through 2000s:Catch-up growth
• Increases in human capital HealthoPublic health (vaccination rates,
infant and maternal mortality)oMedical care (including dentistry)
Minnesota, 1950s through 2000s:Catch-up growth
• Increases in physical capital Private capitaloBroad and deep local financial
markets and institutionsoHigh rates of return attract out-of-
state capital investment
Minnesota, 1950s through 2000s:Catch-up growth
• Increases in physical capital Public capitaloTransportation (roads, river
transport)oWater and sewer systems
Minnesota, 1950s through 2000s:Catch-up growth
• Adoption and improvement of existingtechnologies Computers Medical devices
Minnesota, 1950s through 2000s:Catch-up growth
• Government effort to make Minnesota “big league” Human rights efforts Public amenities
Economic theory:Endogenous growth
• Total factor productivity growth is driving factor
• Endogenous: total factor productivity comes from intentional application of resources towards innovation
• Participation and resources per worker grow relatively slowly
Economic theory:Endogenous growth
Total factor productivity is higher than almost all
other areas
Total factor productivity must be increased by new innovations and
improved input quality
Slow of growth of participation rate
Slow growth of resources per
worker
New innovations and improved input quality
Growth of per capita
income
Economic theory:Endogenous growth
Minnesota, 2010 onward
• Participation rates have stabilized• Quantities of human capital and
physical capital are growing more slowly
• Innovation has picked up• Medical devices• Retailing
Minnesota, 2010 onward
• Growth depends on increasing total factor productivity through improved quality of inputs, not just quantities
Minnesota, 2010 onward
• EducationoEarly-childhood educationo Improved graduation rates for non-
white studentsoLifelong learning
Minnesota, 2010 onward
• HealthoFor young: preventionoFor adults: wellnessoFor older adults: ability to treat
illness outside of hospitals and nursing homes
Minnesota, 2010 onward
• Public capital and governmentoBetter transportation, not just moreo Improve productivity of water and
sewer systemsoGovernment services: competition
and community
How Minnesota Became Above Average
1950s-2000s (Catch-up growth)
• Growth in quantity of resources
• Adoption and improvement of existing institutions and technologies from the technological frontier
2010 onward(Endogenous growth)
• Growth in quality of resources
• Development of newinstitutions and technologies that expand the technological frontier
The big questions for public policy:
Do people follow jobs?or
Do jobs follow people?
How Minnesota Became Above Average
1950s-2000s(People follow jobs)
• Public policy focus: – Accumulate and attract
more human and physical capital
– Technology transfer
2010 onward(Jobs follow people)
• Public policy focus:– Improve quality of
human and physical capital
– Technological innovation
Thanks for your attention and participation!
Questions?